US Politics: He's Trump, he's Trump, he's Trump, he's in my head

[aceluby]

9 minutes ago, Fez said:

It won't. Very few voters care about process. Also, have you looked at the 2018 senate map? Its insane. To get a majority, Democrats need to:

Keep seats in red states: Indiana, Missouri, Montana, North Dakota, and West Virginia.

Keep seats in swing states: Florida, Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.

Avoid any upsets in blue states.

Win seats in: Arizona, Nevada, and Texas.

If they lose a single seat, they also have to win a seat in either: Mississippi, Nebraska, Tennessee, Utah, or Wyoming.

Its not gonna happen. Democrats would be extremely lucky to just break even; even if they win the House in a wave election.

I wouldn't count it out yet.  We've never seen such an unpopular President.

[James Arryn]

2 minutes ago, aceluby said:

I wouldn't count it out yet.  We've never seen such an unpopular President.

How do you know he is unpopular? I hope you're not citing unreliable polls as represented by liberal media bias.

edit: I appear to be channeling my inner Colbert today, but I do want to hammer how little relationship between events and consequences exists once a chunk of the electorate buys into 'alternate facts' and media bias.

[Ser Reptitious]

The SC filibuster was living on borrowed time anyway, and given how things have been going (approval of nominated candidates getting more and more strictly partisan) this is actually a good thing for the Democrats the next time they control both the Presidency and the Senate. 

Further, if they had refrained from using the filibuster to block Gorsuch, there would have been potentially huge infighting among Democrats about whether doing so was (a) a smart tactical move or (b) spineless. Now that the Democratic Senators have given it their best shot, such infighting (which could have depressed turnout in 2018) needs not to happen.

[Fez]

24 minutes ago, Tywin et al. said:

Pretty much. Like it or not you need to be ready for at least 4 years of unified government controlled by Republicans. 

Well, I do think there's a decent chance at flipping the House in 2018; but it all depends on how things shake out over the next year plus. At the very least they should pick up a decent haul of seats though, making it even harder for Republicans to pass anything; its not going to be Freedom Caucus folks losing their seats.

[Swordfish]

27 minutes ago, Manhole Eunuchsbane said:

Not all that unified so far, thankfully.

And likely to continue to get less unified, given the way things are going.....

[TrueMetis]

1 hour ago, Manhole Eunuchsbane said:

Presidents of the United States of America tune...

 

I was thinking Weird Al myself.

 

[Swordfish]

NAU students stick fingers in ears, throw tantrum...

Quote

During a forum hosted by President Rita Cheng, NAU sophomore Breanna Kramer asked Cheng, “How can you promote safe spaces, if you don’t take action in situations of injustice, such as, last week, when we had the preacher on campus and he was promoting hate speech against marginalized students?  As well as, not speaking out against racist incidents like blackface two months ago by student workers followed by no reform and no repercussions?”

Cheng replied, “As a university professor, I’m not sure I have any support at all for safe space.  I think that you as a student have to develop the skills to be successful in this world and that we need to provide you with the opportunity for discourse and debate and dialogue and academic inquiry, and I’m not sure that that is correlated with the notion of safe space as I’ve seen that.”

Cheng’s response prompted a walkout and protest from students, mainly members of the NAU Student Action Coalition.

http://www.12news.com/news/local/arizona/nau-students-demand-president-declare-safe-space-or-step-down/427407427

[Manhole Eunuchsbane]

4 minutes ago, Swordfish said:

NAU students stick fingers in ears, throw tantrum...

http://www.12news.com/news/local/arizona/nau-students-demand-president-declare-safe-space-or-step-down/427407427

Loving the pushback to the campus PC movement. Ohio State turning the safe space argument on protesters was particularly apt...

https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2016/04/ohio-state-turns-the-concept-of-safe-space-against-student-protesters/478221/

They come to work around 7 o’clock. Do you remember when you all made the rush down there and chanted to the folks outside the doors a minute ago?

That scared people.

  Said messenger two, “That’s the truth you guys. I talked to several of them when they walked out of here.” Their consensus position: “The people in this building have a right to a safe environment, and to an environment where their jobs won’t be interrupted.”

[James Arryn]

4 minutes ago, Swordfish said:

NAU students stick fingers in ears, throw tantrum...

http://www.12news.com/news/local/arizona/nau-students-demand-president-declare-safe-space-or-step-down/427407427

I'm sure the oldies can remember the days of the Kent State Tantrum or the Selma Hissy Fits.

[Manhole Eunuchsbane]

2 minutes ago, James Arryn said:

I'm sure the oldies can remember the days of the Kent State Tantrum or the Selma Hissy Fits.

Considerably different in terms of grievance methinks.

[maarsen]

2 minutes ago, James Arryn said:

I'm sure the oldies can remember thee days of the Kent State Tantrum or the Selma Hissy Fits.

Being an oldie, yes I do.

[Swordfish]

4 minutes ago, Manhole Eunuchsbane said:

Loving the pushback to the campus PC movement. Ohio State turning the safe space argument on protesters was particularly apt...

https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2016/04/ohio-state-turns-the-concept-of-safe-space-against-student-protesters/478221/

Brilliant.

[James Arryn]

5 minutes ago, Manhole Eunuchsbane said:

Considerably different in terms of grievance methinks.

Oh, of course. My point was about how a certain political demographic would have portrayed those in their own time.

[Kalbear]

1 hour ago, aceluby said:

I wouldn't count it out yet.  We've never seen such an unpopular President.

That's true. And that's far more important for flipping the votes than this filibuster thing.

Lots of people thought that McConnell not even allowing a vote for Garland would be the senate's death knell, but it wasn't even close. And point of fact, Trump campaigning on filling that seat so he could overturn  Roe v. Wade, protect 2nd amendment rights and kill the environment was one of the cited reasons that Republicans lined up behind him. 

In a world where there is no compromise between politicians and executive orders rule the day, the supreme court is probably the most important thing that exists as far as getting actual policy done. Republicans aren't going to be upset that they got their SCOTUS pick. And Democrats might want to reverse it, but only to block others.

I would be honestly shocked if a POTUS from this point on ever actually gets to appoint any justices of any kind if their party does not control the senate.

 

[S John]

One thing I noticed in the NAU clip was that it was like.. 20 students?  Yet this is exactly the kinda stuff gets picked up by the Breitbarts of the world and used to paint all college students, all young people, all colleges, all liberals as unreasonable, out of touch, snowflakes.  I think the push back we are seeing at some universities is due to the universities realizing that they are not actually going to have a mass revolt on their hands if they fail to meet increasingly ridiculous demands, that it is really only a small group of students that is driving the narrative, and that they've been letting them do that.  

 

[Manhole Eunuchsbane]

4 minutes ago, S John said:

One thing I noticed in the NAU clip was that it was like.. 20 students?  Yet this is exactly the kinda stuff gets picked up by the Breitbarts of the world and used to paint all college students, all young people, all colleges, all liberals as unreasonable, out of touch, snowflakes.  I think the push back we are seeing at some universities is due to the universities realizing that they are not actually going to have a mass revolt on their hands if they fail to meet increasingly ridiculous demands, that it is really only a small group of students that is driving the narrative, and that they've been letting them do that.  

Yeah, I think that's mostly true, but the push back should come because the demands are ridiculous. Whether the group making these demands is small or large.

[Swordfish]

7 minutes ago, S John said:

One thing I noticed in the NAU clip was that it was like.. 20 students?  Yet this is exactly the kinda stuff gets picked up by the Breitbarts of the world and used to paint all college students, all young people, all colleges, all liberals as unreasonable, out of touch, snowflakes.  I think the push back we are seeing at some universities is due to the universities realizing that they are not actually going to have a mass revolt on their hands if they fail to meet increasingly ridiculous demands, that it is really only a small group of students that is driving the narrative, and that they've been letting them do that.  

 

The number of students is unknown, and largely irrelevant.  

They are, after all, calling for her to be removed.  that warrants push back, because we've seen plenty of examples of these kinds of demands being taken seriously.

[Fez]

12 minutes ago, Kalbear said:

I would be honestly shocked if a POTUS from this point on ever actually gets to appoint any justices of any kind if their party does not control the senate.

Well the last time a Republican senate approved a Democratic nominee to the Supreme Court was 1895; so we've been halfway there for a while (Of course, until Garland that's entirely a coincidence due to the timing of the vacancies). 

 

Anyway, speaking of Trump dragging down Republicans, the NRCC has started spending money in the KS-4 special election. Its not a lot of money, but Republicans have won 6 of the past 7 congressional elections in that District by at least 30 points (the 7th time was a 22 point win); they shouldn't have to spend any money there.

I can't begin to imagine Democrats win this race, but just making the national party spend money in Kansas when Jon Ossoff (somehow) raised $8.3 million just in the 1st quarter this year for the special election over in Georgia is a big win. And then there's Montana, which almost no one is talking about, but Rob Quist (this guy) is the Democratic nominee and may very well win that special election in May.

[Altherion]

33 minutes ago, Kalbear said:

I would be honestly shocked if a POTUS from this point on ever actually gets to appoint any justices of any kind if their party does not control the senate.

It's interesting how this has evolved. Ruth Bader Ginsburg is now thought of as the arch-liberal of the court, but she was confirmed 96-3. Even when such near-unanimity didn't happen, a majority vote has been enough (Thomas only got 52 votes, Alito got 58). It might still be possible to get a justice confirmed without controlling the Senate as long as the balance of the court is not disturbed (i.e. exchange a liberal for a liberal or a conservative for a conservative).

I've mostly stopped following this thread because it moves too fast thus takes too much time, but the diminution of the filibuster is important. Of course, it's not as good as simply getting rid of it altogether would be, but the more holes in it, the better.

[Kalbear]

Just now, Altherion said:

It's interesting how this has evolved. Ruth Bader Ginsburg is now thought of as the arch-liberal of the court, but she was confirmed 96-3. Even when such near-unanimity didn't happen, a majority vote has been enough (Thomas only got 52 votes, Alito got 58). It might still be possible to get a justice confirmed without controlling the Senate as long as the balance of the court is not disturbed (i.e. exchange a liberal for a liberal or a conservative for a conservative).

I don't see why. McConnell showed through 2009-2013 and with Garland that there is no real political price to pay for simply refusing to have hearings. Gorsuch shows that there's no real value in compromise or even trying to.

What this points out is that the norms we have that aren't enforced by actual law or constitution are not particularly valuable in a partisan system. My suspicion is the legislative filibuster will be removed, and will likely be removed by Democrats.