Ramsay Killed LW

[40 Thousand Skeletons]

Please, avoid all discussion of PJ. Is this a PJ-related topic? Yes. But the whole reason I had to create this topic is because some of us were having a nice discussion about the recent PJ theory that Ramsay killed LW, and at some point the thread was not just locked, but deleted entirely. I'm assuming this is because one person in particular (I won't name names, but you know who you are) repeatedly called PJ theories "fan fiction", and the conversation quickly went downhill. So please, for the sake of this thread, pretend PJ doesn't even exist.  

I will summarize the valid points of the theory briefly:

• BW is smart enough to not have LW's blood all over him after committing a murder, and BW generally lacked motivation for killing LW. LW may have been ahead in the line of succession, but so are a million other Freys, so killing LW doesn't really help make BW Lord of the Twins in any practical sense. Additionally, BW ends up getting sent out to fight Stannis as a direct result of this event, a result which BW surely would not want.
• LW was butchered (not just stabbed in the back or something sneaky), and it seems unlikely that BW would be able to overpower and butcher LW, considering LW physically bested him in both their Lord of the Crossing game and jousting. The butchering seems to implicate Ramsay instead.
• BW "hesitates" toward the end of his story about the murder, possibly implying that everything he said before the hesitation (LW went to find someone who owed him silver from dicing) was true, but what he said after the hesitation (it was White Harbor men who taught dice) was a lie.
• It seems weird that White Harbor men would dice with a Frey, and Luton and Skinner were specifically observed by Theon dicing that night, so it is more likely that LW was dicing with Luton and Skinner and was somehow owed money by one of them (probably Luton)
• During the ensuing fight (which was chaotic and involved around 60 men and we also don't get a description of after the first 5 seconds) after LW's body is brought in, Luton is somehow the only Dreadfort man badly wounded, and Ramsay quickly "silences" him.
• Prior to the fight, Ramsay enters buckling his sword belt, Roose and Ramsay are seen arguing, and Fat Walda shows a look of fear that "spoke volumes". Walda also screams when the fight starts but was silent when the corpse of her brother was brought inside. This implies that Ramsay knew LW was dead and was informing Roose. That would explain why Walda had a look of fear during the argument and screamed at the beginning of the fight but did not react when LW was brought inside.
• A raven arrives with a map of Stannis's location, and we know that Roose was fully expecting this intel because it was sent by the Dreadfort maester, who was brought along by Arnolf Karstark. Food is dwindling, tensions are high, and Roose had likely been anxious for this map to arrive so that he could send disloyal men out into the snow to fight Stannis. However, the fight, caused by LW's murder, forces Roose's hand into sending loyal Frey men out to fight instead. Side note - Theon observes that the raven was still wet from the snow, so barring some ultra-deception on the part of Roose/GRRM, the map arrived long after the murder of LW.
• Ramsay, even during his wedding to fake Arya, claimed among his titles to be heir to the Dreadfort. It seems he may have no intention of trying to maintain control of WF or Hornwood. This makes sense, considering he knows Bran and Rickon (not to mention Sansa) are alive, and the Hornwood men surely despise Ramsay for what he did to Lady Hornwood. Since Roose was quite effective at killing off rival northerners during the Wot5K, the remaining Dreadfort men may outnumber everyone else in the North, not including the Freys.
• If we do the math for the vague numbers of northern soldiers we are given in ADWD, it appears likely that the 1400 Frey men are the "swing" army in the North, just like they were the swing army at the Trident. If Ramsay kills Roose, he would gain control of the Dreadfort and the largest army in the North, but the Freys would never follow Ramsay, and the other northerners together with the 1400 Frey men could potentially overpower him. So to get the Dreadfort, Ramsay must first kill off the Frey forces, and then kill Roose. On a basic level, that is Ramsay's whole plan.
• So the entire point of LW's murder was to force Roose's hand into sending the Freys out to die, killing the faction of men loyal to Roose alone.

So, just for a moment, pretend you totally buy into all that logic like I do . Ramsay's entire plan would depend on spectacular timing. That is, he killed LW at the perfect moment, the night before the raven arrived with the map. That's some luck. Even Roose himself would have had no idea when exactly the raven was going to arrive. That knowledge, in fact, would only be possessed by the raven. It would only be possessed by the Old Gods. So really, for his entire plan to make sense without some sort of bull shit contrived super-coincidence, Ramsay would have to receive a prophetic vision telling him the timing of the raven. Without such a vision, the whole plan really falls apart. Is this plausible? Well I think it is not only plausible but incredibly likely.

Briefly, let's go over the early adventures of Ramsay:

• Ramsay (as Reek) suspiciously gets captured while hunting. For some reason, he was alone in the woods with Reek where other soldiers were known to be fighting/riding around, he was a wanted man for what he did to Lady Hornwood, and he had a bunch of fancy clothes with him that could be used to pretend Reek was Ramsay.
• As a result, Ramsay is a prisoner at WF when Theon arrives and takes control of the castle, and he quickly befriends Theon.
• When they go out hunting for Bran and Rickon, Ramsay has the forethought to bring along Bran and Rickon's clothes, even though Theon seemed confident the hunt would be successful, and Ramsay shouldn't know about the location or even existence of the super-convenient miller's sons.

Ramsay's actions listed there don't make much sense. In fact, the acts of getting captured and of bringing clothes on the hunt arguably make no sense without prophetic foresight. And lo and behold, Jojen received visions of Theon coming to WF and of Ramsay skinning the faces of the miller's sons. I give it a 99% chance Ramsay received at least those same 2 visions. And so, I think it is reasonable to conclude that the Old Gods/BR, knowing the exact location and timing of the raven with the map, would send a vision to Ramsay with that info, allowing Ramsay to carry out his plan and beat Roose at the game of thrones.

So, people... What do you think of Ramsay receiving prophetic visions like Jojen? And whether or not you buy into that, do you think Ramsay killed LW?

[Ser Loras The Gay]

I do believe he killed LW to incit chaos and get the Freys out of WF. But I don't think he receives prophetic visions. The clothes could be used by the dogs to smell the scent of Bran and Rickon right? I don't know. I don't buy it.

[House Beaudreau]

19 minutes ago, 40 Thousand Skeletons said:

Please, avoid all discussion of PJ. Is this a PJ-related topic? Yes. But the whole reason I had to create this topic is because some of us were having a nice discussion about the recent PJ theory that Ramsay killed LW, and at some point the thread was not just locked, but deleted entirely. I'm assuming this is because one person in particular (I won't name names, but you know who you are) repeatedly called PJ theories "fan fiction", and the conversation quickly went downhill. So please, for the sake of this thread, pretend PJ doesn't even exist.  

I will summarize the valid points of the theory briefly:

• BW is smart enough to not have LW's blood all over him after committing a murder, and BW generally lacked motivation for killing LW. LW may have been ahead in the line of succession, but so are a million other Freys, so killing LW doesn't really help make BW Lord of the Twins in any practical sense. Additionally, BW ends up getting sent out to fight Stannis as a direct result of this event, a result which BW surely would not want.
• LW was butchered (not just stabbed in the back or something sneaky), and it seems unlikely that BW would be able to overpower and butcher LW, considering LW physically bested him in both their Lord of the Crossing game and jousting. The butchering seems to implicate Ramsay instead.
• BW "hesitates" toward the end of his story about the murder, possibly implying that everything he said before the hesitation (LW went to find someone who owed him silver from dicing) was true, but what he said after the hesitation (it was White Harbor men who taught dice) was a lie.
• It seems weird that White Harbor men would dice with a Frey, and Luton and Skinner were specifically observed by Theon dicing that night, so it is more likely that LW was dicing with Luton and Skinner and was somehow owed money by one of them (probably Luton)
• During the ensuing fight (which was chaotic and involved around 60 men and we also don't get a description of after the first 5 seconds) after LW's body is brought in, Luton is somehow the only Dreadfort man badly wounded, and Ramsay quickly "silences" him.
• Prior to the fight, Ramsay enters buckling his sword belt, Roose and Ramsay are seen arguing, and Fat Walda shows a look of fear that "spoke volumes". Walda also screams when the fight starts but was silent when the corpse of her brother was brought inside. This implies that Ramsay knew LW was dead and was informing Roose. That would explain why Walda had a look of fear during the argument and screamed at the beginning of the fight but did not react when LW was brought inside.
• A raven arrives with a map of Stannis's location, and we know that Roose was fully expecting this intel because it was sent by the Dreadfort maester, who was brought along by Arnolf Karstark. Food is dwindling, tensions are high, and Roose had likely been anxious for this map to arrive so that he could send disloyal men out into the snow to fight Stannis. However, the fight, caused by LW's murder, forces Roose's hand into sending loyal Frey men out to fight instead. Side note - Theon observes that the raven was still wet from the snow, so barring some ultra-deception on the part of Roose/GRRM, the map arrived long after the murder of LW.
• Ramsay, even during his wedding to fake Arya, claimed among his titles to be heir to the Dreadfort. It seems he may have no intention of trying to maintain control of WF or Hornwood. This makes sense, considering he knows Bran and Rickon (not to mention Sansa) are alive, and the Hornwood men surely despise Ramsay for what he did to Lady Hornwood. Since Roose was quite effective at killing off rival northerners during the Wot5K, the remaining Dreadfort men may outnumber everyone else in the North, not including the Freys.
• If we do the math for the vague numbers of northern soldiers we are given in ADWD, it appears likely that the 1400 Frey men are the "swing" army in the North, just like they were the swing army at the Trident. If Ramsay kills Roose, he would gain control of the Dreadfort and the largest army in the North, but the Freys would never follow Ramsay, and the other northerners together with the 1400 Frey men could potentially overpower him. So to get the Dreadfort, Ramsay must first kill off the Frey forces, and then kill Roose. On a basic level, that is Ramsay's whole plan.
• So the entire point of LW's murder was to force Roose's hand into sending the Freys out to die, killing the faction of men loyal to Roose alone.

So, just for a moment, pretend you totally buy into all that logic like I do . Ramsay's entire plan would depend on spectacular timing. That is, he killed LW at the perfect moment, the night before the raven arrived with the map. That's some luck. Even Roose himself would have had no idea when exactly the raven was going to arrive. That knowledge, in fact, would only be possessed by the raven. It would only be possessed by the Old Gods. So really, for his entire plan to make sense without some sort of bull shit contrived super-coincidence, Ramsay would have to receive a prophetic vision telling him the timing of the raven. Without such a vision, the whole plan really falls apart. Is this plausible? Well I think it is not only plausible but incredibly likely.

Briefly, let's go over the early adventures of Ramsay:

• Ramsay (as Reek) suspiciously gets captured while hunting. For some reason, he was alone in the woods with Reek where other soldiers were known to be fighting/riding around, he was a wanted man for what he did to Lady Hornwood, and he had a bunch of fancy clothes with him that could be used to pretend Reek was Ramsay.
• As a result, Ramsay is a prisoner at WF when Theon arrives and takes control of the castle, and he quickly befriends Theon.
• When they go out hunting for Bran and Rickon, Ramsay has the forethought to bring along Bran and Rickon's clothes, even though Theon seemed confident the hunt would be successful, and Ramsay shouldn't know about the location or even existence of the super-convenient miller's sons.

Ramsay's actions listed there don't make much sense. In fact, the acts of getting captured and of bringing clothes on the hunt arguably make no sense without prophetic foresight. And lo and behold, Jojen received a vision of Theon coming to WF and of Ramsay skinning the faces of the miller's sons. I give it a 99% chance Ramsay received at least those same 2 visions. And so, I think it is reasonable to conclude that the Old Gods, knowing the exact location and timing of the raven with the map, would send a vision to Ramsay with that info, allowing Ramsay to carry out his plan and beat Roose at the game of thrones.

So, people... What do you think of Ramsay receiving prophetic visions like Jojen? And whether or not you buy into that, do you think Ramsay killed LW?

I totally buy into the Idea of Ramsay Killing LW. Ramsey has a history of Killing people who are close to him. This theory is a lot more grounded in deductive reasoning and analysis of the facts than what some would call "Fan Fiction". I don't know how I feel about the Walders being important just because they know the entrance to the cripts and were briefly on the hunt with ramsey tho. still a skeptic but this one really holds my attention   

Personally when I first read through ADWD and going through most of the story going on in the North with Roose and Ramsey, Stannis and Davos, The Umbers and Manderlys, the Pink Letter and Mance my head was spinning. I was just trying to follow what the text was saying and not thinking about what all the plots and schemes going on. unlike other events in ADWD example I knew pretty early on in my first reading that Young Griff was Aegon and then piece it together that hes probably a Blackfyre but defiantly a fake. I knew that Skahaz is playing Barristan, I even had the sense that if the fighting pits were reopened they might attract the dragons. Im not trying to Brag i'm more stating how complicted and layered things in the north have gotten. 

I lean towards Mance writing the Pink Letter. that there is a Mance Umber Manderly conspiracy and that Stannis will win the battle of Ice.  

[40 Thousand Skeletons]

1 minute ago, Ser Loras The Gay said:

I do believe he killed LW to incit chaos and get the Freys out of WF. But I don't think he receives prophetic visions. The clothes could be used by the dogs to smell the scent of Bran and Rickon right? I don't know. I don't buy it.

No, Farlen's dogs were specifically following the scent of Shaggydog and Summer, not Bran and Rickon. You may not buy it, but you also lack an explanation for why Ramsay thought to bring the clothes on the hunt, no offense.  

But since you think Ramsay killed LW, do you think the timing of the raven with the map was just a coincidence? Or do you think it was simply unnecessary for his plan?

[40 Thousand Skeletons]

1 minute ago, House Beaudreau said:

I totally buy into the Idea of Ramsay Killing LW. Ramsey has a history of Killing people who are close to him. This theory is a lot more grounded in deductive reasoning and analysis of the facts than what some would call "Fan Fiction". I don't know how I feel about the Walders being important just because they know the entrance to the cripts and were briefly on the hunt with ramsey tho. still a skeptic but this one really holds my attention   

Personally when I first read through ADWD and going through most of the story going on in the North with Roose and Ramsey, Stannis and Davos, The Umbers and Manderlys, the Pink Letter and Mance my head was spinning. I was just trying to follow what the text was saying and not thinking about what all the plots and schemes going on. unlike other events in ADWD example I knew pretty early on in my first reading that Young Griff was Aegon and then piece it together that hes probably a Blackfyre but defiantly a fake. I knew that Skahaz is playing Barristan, I even had the sense that if the fighting pits were reopened they might attract the dragons. Im not trying to Brag i'm more stating how complicted and layered things in the north have gotten. 

I lean towards Mance writing the Pink Letter. that there is a Mance Umber Manderly conspiracy and that Stannis will win the battle of Ice.  

I agree with everything you said here. And yeah, I left out the part about the crypts and some other little details because they were too speculative. This is definitely not the full PJ version here.

[House Beaudreau]

BW does say that he will hold the twins somedays and seems to be very knowledgeable when it comes to Frey succession   but killing LW just to move a little higher in the Succession seems unlikely. enter Ramsey telling BW that LW death can mean something and get a lot of other Freys killed is something that BW might go along with and defend the lie to Roose for Ramsey   

[40 Thousand Skeletons]

@House Beaudreau I think BW probably just went along with it for fear of being flayed alive, a very legit fear to have around Ramsay. Although the Battle of Ice will kill off some Freys ahead of BW in the line of succession, BW himself ends up being sent into battle, which is probably not a desired outcome. A scenario in which the Freys fight Stannis and all the important Freys except BW die is unlikely.

But yes, killing LW to move just 1 step up in line, when he has like 50 other Freys ahead in line, is not great motivation for murder.

[House Beaudreau]

19 minutes ago, House Beaudreau said:

So, just for a moment, pretend you totally buy into all that logic like I do . Ramsay's entire plan would depend on spectacular timing. That is, he killed LW at the perfect moment, the night before the raven arrived with the map. That's some luck. Even Roose himself would have had no idea when exactly the raven was going to arrive. That knowledge, in fact, would only be possessed by the raven. It would only be possessed by the Old Gods. So really, for his entire plan to make sense without some sort of bull shit contrived super-coincidence, Ramsay would have to receive a prophetic vision telling him the timing of the raven. Without such a vision, the whole plan really falls apart. Is this plausible? Well I think it is not only plausible but incredibly likely.

Ramsey Killing LW without knowing when the map would arrive is a possibility. Ramsey could have been getting antsy considering Mance and the spearwives had been killing people as well and suspected the Manderlys and wanted to use the Freys for all the reasons you mentioned. Ramsey might not have cared if the manderlys and Freys were sent out after he created the conflict. One thing is sure, the killing of LW definitely forces Roose's hand in regards to Stannis.     

I really want to believe the idea that there is some sort of connection between the choices Jojen, Ramsey and Theon but there just is enough evidence for me to believe its anything more than speculation. 

[House Beaudreau]

23 minutes ago, 40 Thousand Skeletons said:

Although the Battle of Ice will kill off some Freys ahead of BW in the line of succession, BW himself ends up being sent into battle, which is probably not a desired outcome. A scenario in which the Freys fight Stannis and all the important Freys except BW die is unlikely.

BW is a good horseman, he is small and sly, and would be treated with some care if captured, but who knows with Stannis. Maybe he likes his odds of surviving the Battle of Ice, or insuring that he can see killed some other important Freys ahead of him.... or Ramsey is just making him lie and wants to get as far away from him as possible.    

[Renly's Banana]

I think it's an okay theory; certainly one of the more tame ones floating around right now. I would just omit any and all implications that magic was involved. I'm sick of everyone and their grandmother's dog getting "prophetic visions" every other day. It's a lazy cop-out. Especially when nobody involved in this theory has ever had any history of it. 

It could have been Ramsay trying to be sneaky and sly, and of course bumbling it. Ramsay is not a very smart man, he's too vicious and short-sighted. I would equate him to Cersei; they both think they're much smarter than they are and are desperate to prove it to their fathers. I think Roose may have passed his concerns on to Ramsay, and Ramsay tried killing a Frey and blaming the Manderlys to take the heat off of them. At least momentarily. The only person who can shed some light on this is Big Walder, since we don't have any POVs inside of Winterfell anymore. So if he survives the fighting and is captured by Stannis, we may hear the full story from him.

[40 Thousand Skeletons]

5 minutes ago, House Beaudreau said:

BW is a good horseman, he is small and sly, and would be treated with some care if captured, but who knows with Stannis. Maybe he likes his odds of surviving the Battle of Ice, or insuring that he can see killed some other important Freys ahead of him.... or Ramsey is just making him lie and wants to get as far away from him as possible.    

He is a good horseman, and yes would probably be treated fine if captured if not burned alive or something, but he is also going out alongside the Manderly men, since they and the Freys were the ones fighting due to BW blaming the Manderly men for the murder. And if it is obvious to us that the Manderlys will betray them in the upcoming battle, BW may anticipate this betrayal as well. I just don't see BW liking his odds enough to take the chance, but I suppose it's possible he is working with Ramsay and not being coerced.

[40 Thousand Skeletons]

6 minutes ago, Renly's Banana said:

I think it's an okay theory; certainly one of the more tame ones floating around right now. I would just omit any and all implications that magic was involved. I'm sick of everyone and their grandmother's dog getting "prophetic visions" every other day. It's a lazy cop-out. Especially when nobody involved in this theory has ever had any history of it. 

It could have been Ramsay trying to be sneaky and sly, and of course bumbling it. Ramsay is not a very smart man, he's too vicious and short-sighted. I would equate him to Cersei; they both think they're much smarter than they are and are desperate to prove it to their fathers. I think Roose may have passed his concerns on to Ramsay, and Ramsay tried killing a Frey and blaming the Manderlys to take the heat off of them. At least momentarily. The only person who can shed some light on this is Big Walder, since we don't have any POVs inside of Winterfell anymore. So if he survives the fighting and is captured by Stannis, we may hear the full story from him.

How is it a cop-out? This is a story where lots of people (Daenys, Daeron, Aegon V, Aerion, Malora Hightower, Hugor of the Hill, Jojen, Bran, Dany, etc.) receive visions. And we have some evidence, which I clearly just outlined, that Ramsay has received some of the same visions that Jojen did.

[Ser Loras The Gay]

57 minutes ago, 40 Thousand Skeletons said:

No, Farlen's dogs were specifically following the scent of Shaggydog and Summer, not Bran and Rickon. You may not buy it, but you also lack an explanation for why Ramsay thought to bring the clothes on the hunt, no offense.  

But since you think Ramsay killed LW, do you think the timing of the raven with the map was just a coincidence? Or do you think it was simply unnecessary for his plan?

As i said "could" I didn't know for sure. I just don't buy it hahaha. I think it's just a coincidence, I really think Roose and Ramsay have two different visions on how to approach the situation. Roose wants the freys at his side to get a united north, now Ramsay wants the Dread fort, and only that.

[40 Thousand Skeletons]

@Ser Loras The Gay I think this is exactly where I differ from a lot of other readers. Other people think such coincidences are totally acceptable and part of the story, and to their credit, most authors do this. I personally think GRRM generally does not utilize contrived coincidences to advance the plot.

[Ser Loras The Gay]

6 minutes ago, 40 Thousand Skeletons said:

@Ser Loras The Gay I think this is exactly where I differ from a lot of other readers. Other people think such coincidences are totally acceptable and part of the story, and to their credit, most authors do this. I personally think GRRM generally does not utilize contrived coincidences to advance the plot.

But if he's trying to make a more realistic world, coincidences happens don't they?

[Nevets]

1 hour ago, 40 Thousand Skeletons said:

Prior to the fight, Ramsay enters buckling his sword belt, Roose and Ramsay are seen arguing, and Fat Walda shows a look of fear that "spoke volumes". Walda also screams when the fight starts but was silent when the corpse of her brother was brought inside. This implies that Ramsay knew LW was dead and was informing Roose. That would explain why Walda had a look of fear during the argument and screamed at the beginning of the fight but did not react when LW was brought inside.

Hosteen Frey entered with BW carrying LW's body.  It's likely that they informed Ramsay prior to their entrance, which would account for the conversation you mention.

1 hour ago, 40 Thousand Skeletons said:

Ramsay, even during his wedding to fake Arya, claimed among his titles to be heir to the Dreadfort. It seems he may have no intention of trying to maintain control of WF or Hornwood. This makes sense, considering he knows Bran and Rickon (not to mention Sansa) are alive, and the Hornwood men surely despise Ramsay for what he did to Lady Hornwood. Since Roose was quite effective at killing off rival northerners during the Wot5K, the remaining Dreadfort men may outnumber everyone else in the North, not including the Freys.

Ramsay also claims to be "Lord of Winterfell"  Bran and Rickon may be alive, but they are not present to contest his claim, nor are they likely to be anytime soon.  Certainly Roose decimated the other Northerners in the south, but Manderly has been recruiting recently and has considerable forces now.  

 

1 hour ago, 40 Thousand Skeletons said:

• If we do the math for the vague numbers of northern soldiers we are given in ADWD, it appears likely that the 1400 Frey men are the "swing" army in the North, just like they were the swing army at the Trident. If Ramsay kills Roose, he would gain control of the Dreadfort and the largest army in the North, but the Freys would never follow Ramsay, and the other northerners together with the 1400 Frey men could potentially overpower him. So to get the Dreadfort, Ramsay must first kill off the Frey forces, and then kill Roose. On a basic level, that is Ramsay's whole plan.
• So the entire point of LW's murder was to force Roose's hand into sending the Freys out to die, killing the faction of men loyal to Roose alone.

At this point, it seems likely that the Frey army (and "Arya";s presence) are the only thing keeping the assembled Northerners from tearing the Boltons from limb to limb.  Getting rid of them seems a bit foolhardy.  Of course, some have to be sent out to keep an eye on the Manderlys, who are highly untrustworthy.  And having open fighting doesn't seem to make sense, either.  They have enough problems as it is.  

Why would the Freys refuse to follow Ramsay?  They don't seem the type to care about his misbehavior, and the Northerners hate them even more than they do the Boltons, so if Roose is gone, Ramsay would be the only game in town.

Essentially, the putative motive for the killing doesn't make sense to me.

1 hour ago, 40 Thousand Skeletons said:

• BW is smart enough to not have LW's blood all over him after committing a murder, and BW generally lacked motivation for killing LW. LW may have been ahead in the line of succession, but so are a million other Freys, so killing LW doesn't really help make BW Lord of the Twins in any practical sense. Additionally, BW ends up getting sent out to fight Stannis as a direct result of this event, a result which BW surely would not want.
• LW was butchered (not just stabbed in the back or something sneaky), and it seems unlikely that BW would be able to overpower and butcher LW, considering LW physically bested him in both their Lord of the Crossing game and jousting. The butchering seems to implicate Ramsay instead.

I tend to believe that Big Walder committed the murder, but that it wasn't preplanned, but the result of an argument, a fight, or possibly an assault by Little Walder on Big Walder, and BW defended himself.  This would account for the butchery.  BW would figure it would be easier to put the blame on someone else than to explain his actions.  As for the blood on his clothing, it is unlikely that he has spares, especially of outerwear, so he's stuck with the bloody coat.

[Renly's Banana]

17 minutes ago, 40 Thousand Skeletons said:

How is it a cop-out? This is a story where lots of people (Daenys, Daeron, Aegon V, Aerion, Malora Hightower, Hugor of the Hill, Jojen, Bran, Dany, etc.) receive visions. And we have some evidence, which I clearly just outlined, that Ramsay has received some of the same visions that Jojen did.

Because then nothing has to be explained. Nobody has any true motivation or backstory -- it's just magic. It's always magic. "How does Varys know so much?" "Oh he's just constantly getting visions from Bloodraven." See how old and uninteresting that gets?
Half the people you listed are Targaryens -- which get a pass cause we know they have weird ties to magic -- and more than half are long dead. People like Jojen, Bran and the Ghost of High Heart get true visions because they have ties to the weirwoods and the old gods. Ramsay fits into none of these categories. Knowing that people may attack him when he was with Reek doesn't make him psychic. Neither does suspecting that maybe Theon wouldn't find Bran and Rickon so he prepared for an alternative. Honestly Ramsay was just winging it up until the end of Clash; he's not really as smart or as gifted as you may think. 

Visions and magic are like salt. You don't add too much of it into the food, only enough to flavor, not overpower. 

[The Bastards Giant Friend]

1 hour ago, 40 Thousand Skeletons said:

No, Farlen's dogs were specifically following the scent of Shaggydog and Summer, not Bran and Rickon. You may not buy it, but you also lack an explanation for why Ramsay thought to bring the clothes on the hunt, no offense.  

Didn't Ramsay, as reek, stay at the mill briefly when Rodrick was returning to WF with him as his prisoner? After killing the original Reek, whom he thought was Ramsey. So he knew there were two boys who could be flayed and burned with minimal witnesses.

 

I like all the thought that went into this theory, and I have no opinion of my own to contribute regarding who killed LW. But I cannot see that any theory on this is fool proof/definitive yet. We need more books.

[40 Thousand Skeletons]

1 minute ago, Ser Loras The Gay said:

But if he's trying to make a more realistic world, coincidences happens don't they?

Coincidences happen, but not generally on the level of significance or frequency that they appear to happen in asoiaf. The most prominent example in my opinion is LF's dagger being used by Bran's would-be assassin. Most people accept that it was a necessary coincidence to advance the plot that Joffrey happened to pick that dagger. I disagree. And I definitely don't want to open that particular can of worms in this thread, but that's a good summary of my view on coincidence in asoiaf.

[The Bastards Giant Friend]

7 minutes ago, Nevets said:

Hosteen Frey entered with BW carrying LW's body.  It's likely that they informed Ramsay prior to their entrance, which would account for the conversation you mention.

Ramsay also claims to be "Lord of Winterfell"  Bran and Rickon may be alive, but they are not present to contest his claim, nor are they likely to be anytime soon.  Certainly Roose decimated the other Northerners in the south, but Manderly has been recruiting recently and has considerable forces now.  

 

At this point, it seems likely that the Frey army (and "Arya";s presence) are the only thing keeping the assembled Northerners from tearing the Boltons from limb to limb.  Getting rid of them seems a bit foolhardy.  Of course, some have to be sent out to keep an eye on the Manderlys, who are highly untrustworthy.  And having open fighting doesn't seem to make sense, either.  They have enough problems as it is.  

Why would the Freys refuse to follow Ramsay?  They don't seem the type to care about his misbehavior, and the Northerners hate them even more than they do the Boltons, so if Roose is gone, Ramsay would be the only game in town.

Essentially, the putative motive for the killing doesn't make sense to me.

I tend to believe that Big Walder committed the murder, but that it wasn't preplanned, but the result of an argument, a fight, or possibly an assault by Little Walder on Big Walder, and BW defended himself.  This would account for the butchery.  BW would figure it would be easier to put the blame on someone else than to explain his actions.  As for the blood on his clothing, it is unlikely that he has spares, especially of outerwear, so he's stuck with the bloody coat.

Excellent post. I agree with everything you say.