The Dothraki: Essosian Population Control Experiment

[Durran Durrandon]

Yes, yes, it’s crack pot, but please consider adding this to your crackpot collection.

So, I have to admit, the first time I read ASOIAF, I didn’t think much about the Dothraki. Actually, I missed a lot of stuff on the first read. Even later though, on rereads, I didn’t think too much about them. I mean they are just your ordinary nomadic “barbarian horde”, yea? On the first read, I was discounting much of the prophetic elements the story as world building and character motivation. Later, I just viewed the Dothraki as convenient for Daenery’s prophetic destiny. Fate or providence or maybe R’hllor has placed them on Daenerys’ path, because Daenerys needs a cavalry to invade Westeros and fight the Others.  So there isn’t much to think about regarding the Dothraki there, yeah?u8

I assumed that the Stallion That Mounts the World, was just a local prophecy and unimportant. On my second reading I assumed it was a garbled version of the Azor Ahai or Prince that was Promised prophecies.   I also, totally missed the bit where Jorah tells Daenerys about why Vaes Dothrak is so big.

Here it is, if you missed it, too:

“Only the crones of the dosh khaleen dwell permanently in the sacred city, them and their slaves and servants,” Ser Jorah replied, “yet Vaes Dothrak is large enough to house every man of every khalasar , should all the khals return to the Mother at once. The crones have prophesied that one day that will come to pass, and so Vaes Dothrak must be ready to embrace all its children.”  GoT- Daenerys IV

So the Dothraki aren’t just prophesying a messiah. They literally have built a place for the messiah to gather all the tribes. (This by the way is a religious tolerance deal breaker for me. If you believe in a messiah, we are cool. If you are building a military base for the messiah’s army, we can’t be friends.) Why do they need a base for the messiah’s army? Let’s consult the Dosh Khaleen.

“[The crone] proclaimed in a thin, wavery voice. “The thunder of his hooves!” the others chorused. “As swift as the wind he rides, and behind him his khalasar covers the earth, men without number, with arakhs shining in their hands like blades of razor grass. Fierce as a storm this prince will be. His enemies will tremble before him, and their wives will weep tears of blood and rend their flesh in grief. The bells in his hair will sing his coming, and the milk men in the stone tents will fear his name. . . .  the stallion who mounts the world!”  GoT- Daenerys V

So are they going to kill all the milk men in their stone tents? It would appear so. Are they passively waiting for this to happen? I don’t think so. On my first read, I just kind of took Illyrio’s  and Visery’s perspective on this. Khal Drogo might or might not want Daenerys. If he did, it was because she was exotic and there was some prestige involved, because she Valyrian. He would help Viserys invade Westeros, in return for Danerys, because the Dothraki like doing that sort of thing. I mean, really we don’t get any kind of a deep explanation from the Dothraki perspective. It then seems highly suspicious, that the Dothraki do not seem to be super shocked when the Dosh Khaleen declare that Daenerys is carrying the Dothraki messiah. I mean the imminent birth of the messiah is kind of a big deal. Yet, it seems like everyone kind of expected it. It seems likely that the Dosh Khaleen had already told Drogo that he needed to go marry this Valyrian princess and she would give birth to the Stallion.  The point being that the Dothraki are not passive about their destiny. They are actively trying to fulfill a religious prophecy and bring about their own eschaton.  Obviously, there is a piece of evidence I just made up, there. We don’t know why Drogo agreed to the deal, but it seems likely. (For the record, trying to breed the messiah in order to fulfil a genocidal eschatology is also a religious tolerance deal breaker for me.)

So what does this Dothraki manifestation of heaven on earth look like? Well, if we look at The World of Ice and Fire, we get the following. The Dothraki did not seem to exist before the fall of Valyria. It was during the Century of Blood , following the Doom of Valyria that Khal Mengo first united the tribes of the grasslands to form the Dothraki. It is suggested that his rise to power was influenced by his mother, a witch queen named Doshi. (Apparently, the Dosh Khaleen derive their name from Doshi, or else the maesters have mistaken a title for a name.) Mengo’s son, Khal Moro is killed by Khal Horo, who is the last Khal to command all of the Dothraki. What did the Dothraki do during the Century of Blood? They destroyed two old and powerful civilization, almost completely, the Sarnor and the Qathi. The Sarnor were, according to legend, descendent of the Fisher Queens, potentially having knowledge that might date back to before the Long Night. The Qaathi clearly had access to powerful magic, if the Warlock we see in Qarth are sort of a degenerate version of the former glory of the Qaathi. So with the Valyrians destroying the Rhoynish, the Doom destroying Valyria, and the Dothraki destroying the Sarnor and the Qaathi, we have in a short period of time the destruction of all the major magical powers in Western Essos. I don’t want to get too far into that yet, though.

Do the Dothraki settle the lands they conquer, like normal “barbarian hordes”? No.  Two generations after Ghengis Khan, Kublah Khan ruled China as an educated worldly emperor. Similar transitions occurred with groups like the Manchu in China, and the much of the same can be found in the history of Eastern Europe and Western Asia.  Not the Dothraki, though. After over three hundred years of raiding and pillaging, extorting the free cities, and partying in the grasslands, they are still going strong.  They don’t settle cities. It’s not normal. It’s almost like it is against their religion to build cities and to farm. Actually, this appear to be literally the case.

The Dothraki have a cultural prohibition against farming. They believe the Earth is their mother and take this pretty seriously, so they consider it sinful to tear into her with plows and axes. This is all stated bluntly in the World of Ice and Fire. When they conquered the cities of the Qathi and the Sarnor, they burned the farm lands and converted as much as they could back to grassland. They disparagingly refer to the milk men, in their stone tents. They hate on civilization. They want to burn it all down and return it to nature, and if the Dothraki, under the Stallion, actually managed to conquer the free cities, invade Westeros, or push past the Bones to the east, we would expect them to do the same, burn the cities, burn the farms, turn it back to grassland, and ride free over the Reach, undoing all of Garth the Green’s hard work, introducing agriculture to Westeros.  If the Stallion actually mounted the world. It would be the end of human civilization, not of humans, just of their civilization, and the forest would be left to . . . the Children, the Giants, and large herds of wild aurochs?

So now, we get to crack some pots.

I’m generally not a big fan of The Children Created the Others, The Children Brought the Doom to Valyria, The Children Created the Faceless Man Religion, type theories. I don’t like the idea of everything coming back to the Children trying to take their vengeance against or otherwise stop humanity. At the same time, if you are going subscribe to such theories, you might as well add in the Dothraki. At the very least, they have already made over half of Western Essos uninhabitable to agricultural society including prime agricultural land in what was Sarnor They have cut off the northern forests from much of human contact, and we have some evidence that the Wood Walkers of those forests are probably Children, if they are still there. If the visions sent to Doshi, and the Dosh Khaleen in general, were sent by the Children, you have to admit that it was a pretty affective ploy. How much the better if they can actually lead the Dothraki into wiping out the Slaver’s Bay, Free Cities and much of Westeros. They just needed Daenerys, but now it would seem that their plan has been hijacked, but by whom? Some glass candle operator like Quaithe or Marwyn? Blood Raven or rival Children factions that see the bigger picture of the oncoming Long Night?

And while we are cracking pots, what about the Squishers? Sorry, I mean the Deep Ones. I’m a little bit vague on who the Fisher Queens really were, but we do have Vaes Dothrak situated at a lake, called the Womb of the World, that was once part of the inland sea of the Fisher Queens, and we are told, by reliable and citation conscious Jhiqui, that the lake has no bottom. (It is known.) I find it deeply suspect that in the wake of the defeat of the Rhoynar and the Doom that the Dothraki have destroyed and continue to advance on anyone who could have knowledge of how the last Long Night began or ended. So, while I am mostly joking about the Squishers, I am curious about the idea of some force actively trying to take down forces that could resist an invasion of Others.

All of this assumes that prophecy is solely derived from the agency of mysterious individuals or groups, manipulating those people who receive prophetic visions. Obviously, there are many different approaches one can take, ranging from none of the prophecies are real, to the gods are real and the prophecies are real, to the prophecies are all planted by the Children or glass candle operators, to all the prophecies are planted by one greenseer or glass candle operator in the future, to the gods aren’t real, but there is some kind of providence built into the universe that allows prophecies to occur and be true. I actually think there is a lot of evidence for the last one, but I think there is probably some combination of all of these at play except for the second one. I’m curious to hear other people’s take.

[Leo of House Cartel]

@Durran Durrandon Really enjoyed this one dude!

I'd never considered that the Dothraki could be "sleeper agents" of the Singers. I've said on other threads I believe the COTF are trying to restore the balance of nature, through multiple means, and this ties in nicely. Your insight into the Dothraki's lack of agriculture/destruction of farming systems is pretty cool, and I'm very intrigued by the idea that the Children have influenced Dothraki prophecy.

What are your theories regarding the Dothraki's encounters with the Ifequevron?

[The Commentator]

The Dothraki lifestyle actually supports environmental sustainability.  Their horses and herds live off of the grasslands.  They live off of the meat provided by their stock.  They move from place to place like nomads, thus leaving little environmental damage behind.  And the damage they leave behind are soon renewed by nature.

GRRM reminds us from time to time that great civilizations can end.  Perhaps to keep us from getting too confident that everything will be alright.  Asshai, Vaes Tolorro, are examples.  You can add the Five Forts and the empty forts at the Wall.  

I can agree that left to their own devices, the Dothraki would push back civilization and human progress.  But under strong leadership, they can be repurposed to do other things that promote the good.  We are constantly reminded, the Dothraki follow the strong.  They are in many ways similar to the Wildlings.  The Wildling way is just as destructive to civilization as the Dothraki.  But civilization itself is destructive to the environment and the more technological progress the greater the population becomes.  Large population = bad for the environment and leads to unsustainable use of resources.  It is worth considering that the purpose of the Wildlings and the Dothraki could be the tearing down of civilization because what is good for the humans is not necessarily good for all other living things on Planetos.  The "gods" use various means at their disposal to retard human technological progress to prevent overuse of natural resources and environmental damage.  

It is for these reasons why I do not believe the Others are coming because of some "blood betrayal" that happened a long time ago.  They are coming because just maybe this is nature's way of fighting back.  If you think about it, what does human sacrifice actually do.  It helps with population control.  That's one channel to control growth.  Do we know for a fact that the Others actually want to cross the Wall?  No, we don't.  All the paranoia that creates is not much different from the hysteria created during the Cold War, that the Russians are coming to get us, and we should arm ourselves and invest in the arm's race.  Martin is a child of the Cold War and it would not surprise me if memories of those times helped shape A Song of Ice and Fire.  If humans are paranoid maybe the Others are too.  Who knows what Mance Rayder may have in his possession that threaten the Others.  

[Leo of House Cartel]

6 minutes ago, Widowmaker 811 said:

The Dothraki lifestyle actually supports environmental sustainability.  Their horses and herds live off of the grasslands.  They live off of the meat provided by their stock.  They move from place to place like nomads, thus leaving little environmental damage behind.  And the damage they leave behind are soon renewed by nature.

GRRM reminds us from time to time that great civilizations can end.  Perhaps to keep us from getting too confident that everything will be alright.  Asshai, Vaes Tolorro, are examples.  You can add the Five Forts and the empty forts at the Wall.  

I can agree that left to their own devices, the Dothraki would push back civilization and human progress.  But under strong leadership, they can be repurposed to do other things that promote the good.  We are constantly reminded, the Dothraki follow the strong.  They are in many ways similar to the Wildlings.  The Wildling way is just as destructive to civilization as the Dothraki.  But civilization itself is destructive to the environment and the more technological progress the greater the population becomes.  Large population = bad for the environment and leads to unsustainable use of resources.  It is worth considering that the purpose of the Wildlings and the Dothraki could be the tearing down of civilization because what is good for the humans is not necessarily good for all other living things on Planetos.  The "gods" use various means at their disposal to retard human technological progress to prevent overuse of natural resources and environmental damage.  

It is for these reasons why I do not believe the Others are coming because of some "blood betrayal" that happened a long time ago.  They are coming because just maybe this is nature's way of fighting back.  If you think about it, what does human sacrifice actually do.  It helps with population control.  That's one channel to control growth.  Do we know for a fact that the Others actually want to cross the Wall?  No, we don't.  All the paranoia that creates is not much different from the hysteria created during the Cold War, that the Russians are coming to get us, and we should arm ourselves and invest in the arm's race.  Martin is a child of the Cold War and it would not surprise me if memories of those times helped shape A Song of Ice and Fire.  If humans are paranoid maybe the Others are too.  Who knows what Mance Rayder may have in his possession that threaten the Others.  

Well said buddy, great points all!

[Durran Durrandon]

2 hours ago, Leo of House Cartel said:

@Durran Durrandon Really enjoyed this one dude!

I'd never considered that the Dothraki could be "sleeper agents" of the Singers. I've said on other threads I believe the COTF are trying to restore the balance of nature, through multiple means, and this ties in nicely. Your insight into the Dothraki's lack of agriculture/destruction of farming systems is pretty cool, and I'm very intrigued by the idea that the Children have influenced Dothraki prophecy.

What are your theories regarding the Dothraki's encounters with the Ifequevron?

The Ifequevron are thr faction of Singers that we ould most lkely be influencing theb Dothraki, assuming they are still there. 

I doubt they have direct dealings with them given there separate ecological niches. Itv would be simple enough for the Ifequevron to influence them by  sending visions to the dosh khaleen.

[Durran Durrandon]

7 hours ago, Widowmaker 811 said:

The Dothraki lifestyle actually supports environmental sustainability.  Their horses and herds live off of the grasslands.  They live off of the meat provided by their stock.  They move from place to place like nomads, thus leaving little environmental damage behind.  And the damage they leave behind are soon renewed by nature.

Exactly, thus they are the kind of human neighbors the COTF would want. They live in balance with nature and they stay out of the forest.

 

7 hours ago, Widowmaker 811 said:

 I can agree that left to their own devices, the Dothraki would push back civilization and human progress.  But under strong leadership, they can be repurposed to do other things that promote the good.  We are constantly reminded, the Dothraki follow the strong.  They are in many ways similar to the Wildlings.  The Wildling way is just as destructive to civilization as the Dothraki.  But civilization itself is destructive to the environment and the more technological progress the greater the population becomes.  Large population = bad for the environment and leads to unsustainable use of resources.  It is worth considering that the purpose of the Wildlings and the Dothraki could be the tearing down of civilization because what is good for the humans is not necessarily good for all other living things on Planetos.  The "gods" use various means at their disposal to retard human technological progress to prevent overuse of natural resources and environmental damage. 

Again, exactly. The Wildling are the kind of neighbors the Children can live with and it seems that they could be manipulated to push back against humans that overpopulate and tear down the environment. It's kind of like organic gardening. Rather than spraying pesticides, the Children are introducing varieties of humans that will push out the invasive kind but then live is balance with their ecosystem.

The problem (for the Children) is that a strong leader could change the purpose of the Dothraki to something the Children didn't intend.

 

7 hours ago, Widowmaker 811 said:

It is for these reasons why I do not believe the Others are coming because of some "blood betrayal" that happened a long time ago.  They are coming because just maybe this is nature's way of fighting back.  If you think about it, what does human sacrifice actually do.  It helps with population control.  That's one channel to control growth.  Do we know for a fact that the Others actually want to cross the Wall?  No, we don't.  All the paranoia that creates is not much different from the hysteria created during the Cold War, that the Russians are coming to get us, and we should arm ourselves and invest in the arm's race.  Martin is a child of the Cold War and it would not surprise me if memories of those times helped shape A Song of Ice and Fire.  If humans are paranoid maybe the Others are too.  Who knows what Mance Rayder may have in his possession that threaten the Others.  

Well, I tend to think that the Long Night was caused by someone who did some sort of magical ritual that caused the moon to shatter and the Blood Betrayal, The Qartheen Moon Myth, and the legend of Azor Ahai forging Lightbringer are all garbled retellings of what happened.As for the Others. I don't know. There analog in the story would seem to be the Red Priest. As Benero the high priest of the Red Temple of Volantis has openly declared Daenerys to be Azor Ahai reborn and that she will bring a summer that never ends and death will bend its knee as all who die in her name will be reborn in fire, sooooo . . . . .  I think we can safely say Red Team is not seeking out balance. Daenerys will either need to ditch the Red Team at some point or oust its leadership.
 

You're cold war analogy is interesting though, as the Soviet Union did have an agenda towards pushing the spread of communism, just as the Western Powers were interested in pushing capitalism, and eveyone caught in between suffered as a result. So, I tend to think the Others are not seeking balance, but we will see,

[Durran Durrandon]

I’m writing this and an addendum to the original post, because I’ve had several conversation with friends recently questioning whether the Dothraki ever really intended to expand beyond the Dothraki Sea or whether Varys and Illyrio ever really intended the Dothraki to invade Westeros.

People tend to forget the detail from Game of Thrones, so here is the textual evidence. Expanding beyond traditional Dothraki conquests is Drogo’s plan, as stated in Daenerys VI. In this chapter, Daenerys attempts to convince Drogo to cross the narrow seas and invade Westeros, reminding him that the Stallion Who Mounts the World is to rule all the lands of the earth. Drogo argues that the earth ends at the sea. He has no intention of invading Westeros, but we then find out that he intends to attack the land around the Jade Sea. Now TWOIAF states that the Dothraki have never been able to push east because the three passes that lead through the Bones are guarded by the fortress cities of Hyrkoon. This makes the idea of going through the Bones to conquer Yi Ti questionable, so it seems more likely that Drogo is thinking of attacking Qarth and possibly continuing east along the coast of the Jade Sea. (Keep in mind Martin probably hadn’t developed the map in detail yet.) The point being that Drogo fully intends to expand east into areas previously not conquered by the Dothraki, though at this point he has no intention of going to Westeros.  We can assume that in the lands around the Jade Sea. he will do what the Dothraki did to Sarnor, destroy the civilization there. He will kill all the fighting men, take everyone else as slaves, and burn down the farms and cities.  Yet after this conversation, Jorah, assures Daenerys that Drogo will go home. It is unclear whether Jorah is just being wishful or if he knows about the assassination plan, being launched by Varys and Illyrio, at this point. We know from conversation between Illyrio and Varys in Arya III, that the breakdown of Westeros is occurring too quickly and Varys tells Illyrio that he need the Dothraki to invade Westeros sooner than expected, but Illyrio does not believe Drogo will “bestir himself until his son is born “. Then, in the next chapter, Eddard VIII, we cut to Robert railing over the news Varys has brought him, Daenerys being pregnant. Most of the small council agrees that Daenerys needs to be assassinated. We know the result of the assassination attempt form the end of Daenerys VI. Jorah stops the assassination, but the attempt is enough to spur Drogo into action. In a rage, he announces that he will “take his Khalassar west to where the world ends, and ride the wooden horses across the black salt sea, as no khal has done before . . . kill the men in their iron suits and  tear down their stone houses . . . rape their women, take their children as slaves, and brink their broken gods back to Vaes Dothrak.” This appears to be the result Illyrio and Varys were going for. When we next pick up with Drogo in Daenerys VII, he is leading his khalasar southwest through Lhazar, presumably on their way to Slavers Bay.

In short, there is plenty of evidence in the text that Drogo planned on expanding past historic Dothraki conquests and playing his role in setting up his son as the Stallion that Mounts the World, whether this was conquest to the east as Drogo originally planned, or crossing the Narrow Sea as Illyrio and Varys planned.

[Jon Ice-Eyes]

I like this. It makes them more than mindless shirtless cliches; which, as you pointed out, no historical 'barbarians' were anything like. 

It's probably going to end in disappointment for me, but for now I like being able to do some work and make them less silly. 

[Illyrio Po'Marties]

Interesting.

I'd assumed that Illyrio somehow got the Dosh Khaleen to announce Drogo would father the Stallion if he married Dany, but perhaps it's more that Illyrio became aware of the Dothraki's efforts to "immanetize the eschaton" and produced a made-to-order Stallion-birther. (This ties into the idea that Dany isn't who she thinks she is.)

[Durran Durrandon]

8 hours ago, Illyrio Po'Marties said:

Interesting.

I'd assumed that Illyrio somehow got the Dosh Khaleen to announce Drogo would father the Stallion if he married Dany, but perhaps it's more that Illyrio became aware of the Dothraki's efforts to "immanetize the eschaton" and produced a made-to-order Stallion-birther. (This ties into the idea that Dany isn't who she thinks she is.)

Yeah, I don't know that Illyrio has a glass candle stashed somewhere to actually influence the Dosh Khaleen with, so I lean towards your second option of him being aware of the Dothraki efforts to "immanetize the eschaton" and taking advantage of it. (That phrase by the way, is always in the back of my head when reading this stuff.) My question about Illytrio is whether he is a skeptic who is merely attempting to maneuver his Blackfire Prince onto the Iron Throne or if he is up to something more esoteric.

[Illyrio Po'Marties]

1 hour ago, Durran Durrandon said:

Yeah, I don't know that Illyrio has a glass candle stashed somewhere to actually influence the Dosh Khaleen with...

Vaes Dothrak is a major trading hub (for some inexplicable reason), so it's not impossible for Illyrio to get some agents there, and everyone has a price.

Shit, I forgot, we've already seen that he's able to get agents there: Jorah, Dany, the wineseller, and possible the merchant captain that Jorah visits.

[Durran Durrandon]

42 minutes ago, Illyrio Po'Marties said:

Vaes Dothrak is a major trading hub (for some inexplicable reason), so it's not impossible for Illyrio to get some agents there, and everyone has a price.

Shit, I forgot, we've already seen that he's able to get agents there: Jorah, Dany, the wineseller, and possible the merchant captain that Jorah visits.

This is true. In fact, Jorah in Dance confesses that Varys warned him of the assassination attempt on Daenerys, which implies he did receive a letter when he visited the merchant captain. I just don't know how one buys off the Dosh Khaleen.

[Illyrio Po'Marties]

10 minutes ago, Durran Durrandon said:

I just don't know how one buys off the Dosh Khaleen.

Fifty bucks and a case of Heineken

[Durran Durrandon]

7 minutes ago, Illyrio Po'Marties said:

Fifty bucks and a case of Heineken

Who knew it was that easy?

[BalerionTheCat]

Concerning the Dothrakis, I don't think they are against agriculture or civilisation. I believe they just understand only violence and have no empathy. I see a parallel between them and the Ironborns. Like them, they do not "sow". If someone or something has made them so, and it seems possible, I don't think it was the Children.

Concerning prophecies, I don't know if they are sent by gods, or are the result of prophets using some magic. But they exist and are accurate, as far as we can interpret them. And if not gods, I'm convinced entities like the Old Gods, Rh'llor, the Great Other, the Lion of Night exist. Some may be the same, but with another name.

BTW, Vaes Dothrak is on the road for one of the 3 passes thru the Bone. The place where merchants of East and West Essos meet and do business. The only place safe with the Dothrakis.

[Durran Durrandon]

1 hour ago, BalerionTheCat said:

Concerning the Dothrakis, I don't think they are against agriculture or civilisation. I believe they just understand only violence and have no empathy. I see a parallel between them and the Ironborns. Like them, they do not "sow". If someone or something has made them so, and it seems possible, I don't think it was the Children.

Concerning prophecies, I don't know if they are sent by gods, or are the result of prophets using some magic. But they exist and are accurate, as far as we can interpret them. And if not gods, I'm convinced entities like the Old Gods, Rh'llor, the Great Other, the Lion of Night exist. Some may be the same, but with another name.

BTW, Vaes Dothrak is on the road for one of the 3 passes thru the Bone. The place where merchants of East and West Essos meet and do business. The only place safe with the Dothrakis.

Except that we are given explicit text from TWOIAF stating that the Dothraki have am a prohibition against farming (cutting into the earth, which is a goddess). As for the connection between the Dothraki and the Ironborn, especially with the "We do not sow" motto, I agree that the similarity is striking.

[Durran Durrandon]

So, I have been trying to resolve four elements of Illyrio’s plan. First, he gave the dragon eggs to Daenerys. Second, it is clear that Illyrio and Varys intended to have the Dothraki invade Westeros. Third he tells Tyrion to he expected Danerys to die on the Dothraki Sea. Finally, he clearly intends on (F)Aegon ruling the Seven Kingdoms.

Hypothesis 1: Illyrio is a skeptic. He think Danerys will die, because, well, it’s the Dothraki and also, because Varys and Illyrio are plotting to goad Robert into assassinating her to goad Drogo into an invasion. He plans on creating an alliance between Aegon, the Gold Company, and the Dothraki, as Aegon and crew will assist the Dothraki in naval transport. Drogo will get revenge and spoils. Aegon will get the throne and the dragon eggs will be gifted back to Aegon by Drogo.

Problem: This doesn’t match up with how the Dothraki work. They would likely kill Aegon, and haul the Iron Throne back to Vaes Dothrak after laying waste to the Seven Kingdoms and the Golden Company.

Hypothesis 2: Illyrio is a skeptic. He think Danerys will die, because, well, it’s the Dothraki and also, because Varys and Illyrio are plotting to goad Robert into assassinating her to goad Drogo into an invasion. He plans on arranging for Aegon and company to defeat the Dothraki at sea, where the Dothraki would be most vulnerable, possibly the only place they can be defeated.  Aegon would recover the eggs and arrive in Westeros as the hero who just saved the Seven Kingdoms from the Dothraki apocalypse. If Daenerys lives, Aegon marries Danny to cement his legitimacy.

Problem: It seems like an easy way to lose the dragon eggs at sea.

Hypothesis 3: Illyrio is not a skeptic. He thinks Danerys  will give birth to the Stallions/Prince Who Was Promised, and is familiar enough with the Qarth Moon Myth/Forging of Lightbringer continuum of mythology to expect that Daenerys should die as sacrifice giving birth to the Stallion/Prince.  He plans on goading Drogo through the assassination attempt, then he plans on creating an alliance between Aegon, the Gold Company, and the Dothraki, as Aegon and crew will assist the Dothraki in naval transport. He will arrange for Drogo to die in the campaign, and attempt to maneuver Aegon into the leadership of the alliance, making him Rhaego’s regent until he is of age and hen continue on as Hand, giving us a well tutored and civilized Stallion/Prince.

Problem: Aegon’s superior claim makes this alliance problematic. His issue would always be a threat to Rhaego.

Hypothesis 4: Illyrio is not a skeptic. He thinks Danerys  will give birth to the Stallions/Prince Who Was Promised, and is familiar enough with the Qarth Moon Myth/Forging of Lightbringer continuum of mythology to expect that Daenerys should die as sacrifice giving birth to the Stallion/Prince.  It’s unclear as to how he intended Aegon to fit into this plan originally. However, by the time of Dance, he knows that he was wrong. Drogo and Rhaego are dead. Daenerys has hatched the dragons. It is clear that Daenerys is the Stallion/Prince (Mare/Princess) born on the Dothraki Sea, and as Illyrio says to Tyrion at the end of Dance Tyrion II, the “the dragon must have three heads.” He plans on marrying Aegon and Tyrion to Daenerys as the two other heads of the dragon. (I’m assuming that Illyrio is aware of A+J=T.)

[BalerionTheCat]

5 hours ago, Durran Durrandon said:

So, I have been trying to resolve four elements of Illyrio’s plan. First, he gave the dragon eggs to Daenerys. Second, it is clear that Illyrio and Varys intended to have the Dothraki invade Westeros. Third he tells Tyrion to he expected Danerys to die on the Dothraki Sea. Finally, he clearly intends on (F)Aegon ruling the Seven Kingdoms.

I believe you are closer to the mark with 2. I believe his initial plan was to have Viserys and Drogo invade Westeros. And war against Robert, the Lannisters, and their closest allies. Maybe expecting the former Targaryens allies (Dorne, The Reach) to remain neutral because of Viserys.  Only when everyone would have been much diminished, and the Dothrakis out of control, would Aegon come back, forge an alliance and find a queen (Maergery or Arianne for example). And bring peace and prosperity again. I don't think he cared much about the eggs. I don't think I believed in prophecies. His goal is the throne.

When Viserys died and Westeros went to chaos, he just waited the right time for Aegon. Cersei was doing to the perfection the job of Viserys and Drogo. But when Daenerys became a power, he had to include her in his plans. He decided to marry her to Aegon, the only way to not be destroyed by her.

[Durran Durrandon]

9 hours ago, BalerionTheCat said:

I believe you are closer to the mark with 2. I believe his initial plan was to have Viserys and Drogo invade Westeros. And war against Robert, the Lannisters, and their closest allies. Maybe expecting the former Targaryens allies (Dorne, The Reach) to remain neutral because of Viserys.  Only when everyone would have been much diminished, and the Dothrakis out of control, would Aegon come back, forge an alliance and find a queen (Maergery or Arianne for example). And bring peace and prosperity again. I don't think he cared much about the eggs. I don't think I believed in prophecies. His goal is the throne.

When Viserys died and Westeros went to chaos, he just waited the right time for Aegon. Cersei was doing to the perfection the job of Viserys and Drogo. But when Daenerys became a power, he had to include her in his plans. He decided to marry her to Aegon, the only way to not be destroyed by her.

Yeah, it's definitely less  fun.but it is cleaner. I'm uncomfortable with the idea that the dragon eggs aren't important, however.