Sansa and the Tyrells

[Renly's Banana]

There's always been something about Olenna's plan to secretly marry Sansa into her family that hasn't sat right with me. Or rather, I just don't understand what her ultimate goal was. 

What was she expecting would happen? 

She tells us that her plan is to ask Cersei permission to have Sansa visit Highgarden. According to her, the Lannisters cannot refuse because without them they "can't keep Joffrey on the throne" -- which is a pretty outrageous claim on its own, but whatever. Let's say all of that's true and Cersei allows it to happen. If Sansa had been married to Willas behind their backs, Tywin would have been outraged. Had the Tyrells stolen their biggest bargaining chip, hostage, and heir to Winterfell, I can see Tywin going as far as calling off the Lannister-Tyrell wedding. It would have been open treason and theft against the crown, not to mention planted even more hostility between both camps. Why would the Tyrells be willing to throw away their assured alliance to the throne just to have a maybe-claim to the North. It makes no sense. 

But what's even more puzzling here is the fact that Mace Tyrell apparently didn't even know his mother was planning this. 

Quote

"If my son the lord oaf asks, she will have no choice but to grant his request." 
"Will he?" asked Sansa. "Will he ask?"
Lady Olenna frowned. "I see no reason to give him a choice. "Of course, he has no hint of our true purpose."

So not only was she planning to lie and steal from the Lannisters, but also lie to and do all of this behind her son's back. How would Mace have reacted to that? Under any other circumstance, I'm sure he would have jumped at the chance to gain more power and leverage, but if this had risked his daughter's chances of becoming queen -- and there is no doubt it would have done so -- he wouldn't have been too happy about it. A marriage to Joffrey is infinitely more valuable than a marriage to Sansa Stark. And Tywin Lannister is not a man to cheat or shame publicly like that. It's almost as if Olenna was banking on their alliance to break down and was already looking for escape routes. 

What do you think would have happened if Sansa had gotten to marry Willas?

[Shouldve Taken The Black]

5 hours ago, Renly's Banana said:

I can see Tywin going as far as calling off the Lannister-Tyrell wedding.

No chance of that. The wedding was central to the alliance, which was the only thing keeping Joffery on the throne. 

 

5 hours ago, Renly's Banana said:

It would have been open treason and theft against the crown

Not really, there's nothing to say marrying your son to a king's hostage is treason, and Sansa may be controlled by them, but legally she's not their property. 

 

5 hours ago, Renly's Banana said:

Why would the Tyrells be willing to throw away their assured alliance to the throne just to have a maybe-claim to the North. It makes no sense.

Tywin and Tyrion point out to Cersei when they discover the plot, that they'd have to grin and bear it if they did go for it, in order to keep the alliance together. The Lannisters need the Tyrells more than the other way around. 

[Shouldve Taken The Black]

To be fair, that’s not to say that marrying Sansa to Willis wasn’t a ballsy move, antagonising the Lannisters and swiping their hostage in order to have a claim to the North, but it probably stems from the Tyrells feeling that they are on the ascent. Having a claim to the North was probably worth the risk of tweaking Tywin, as they rightly felt that he couldn’t do much about it.

If the Lannisters had actually withdrawn the marriage to Joffery, the alliance would have fallen apart, the Tyrells could have allied to Robb Stark, or even Stannis, and the Tyrells’ military strength was so superior to the Lannisters’ at that point they could potentially simply have removed the Lannisters from power (that’s not a certainty, but they were strong enough that Tywin would not be certain of being able to defeat them).

[rotting sea cow]

5 hours ago, Renly's Banana said:

There's always been something about Olenna's plan to secretly marry Sansa into her family that hasn't sat right with me. Or rather, I just don't understand what her ultimate goal was. 

What was she expecting would happen? 

She tells us that her plan is to ask Cersei permission to have Sansa visit Highgarden. According to her, the Lannisters cannot refuse because without them they "can't keep Joffrey on the throne" -- which is a pretty outrageous claim on its own, but whatever. Let's say all of that's true and Cersei allows it to happen. If Sansa had been married to Willas behind their backs, Tywin would have been outraged. Had the Tyrells stolen their biggest bargaining chip, hostage, and heir to Winterfell, I can see Tywin going as far as calling off the Lannister-Tyrell wedding.

No, he couldn't. He is still fighting Robb as per timeline. Calling off the royal weeding is bringing the alliance between the Reach and the North close to a reality, and the Lannisters have lost already two armies fighting Robb. The Westerlands can still raise more, but they are close to be fully spent. They cannot face the Reach at this point.

BTW, the whole affair demonstrates what a sick asshole Littlefinger is.  Sansa would have been safe in the Reach and got rid of the Lannisters forever.

 

[Lynesse]

56 minutes ago, Shouldve Taken The Black said:

Not really, there's nothing to say marrying your son to a king's hostage is treason, and Sansa may be controlled by them, but legally she's not their property.

"You are a ward of the crown. The king stands in your father's place, since your brother is an attainted traitor. That means he has every right to dispose of your hand. You are to marry my brother Tyrion." - Cersei to Sansa in Sansa III, ASOS

That would make marrying her without the crown's consent treason, no? It would certainly be considered a massive affront and an outrage.

Very interesting point raised in the OP. It's puzzling indeed.

[Shouldve Taken The Black]

1 minute ago, Lynesse said:

That would make marrying her without the crown's consent treason, no? It would certainly be considered a massive affront and an outrage.

It would be treason if the Crown refused to give consent, but Tyrion and Tywin point out to Cersei that if the request is made, the Crown would have to give their assent. 

[Endymion I Targaryen]

 

7 hours ago, Renly's Banana said:

Had the Tyrells stolen their biggest bargaining chip, hostage, and heir to Winterfell, I can see Tywin going as far as calling off the Lannister-Tyrell wedding. It would have been open treason and theft against the crown, not to mention planted even more hostility between both camps.

“When might I meet him?” asked Sansa, hesitantly. “Soon,” promised Margaery. “When you come to Highgarden, after Joffrey and I are wed. My grandmother will take you.” (Sansa I, SOS)

“Lord Tyrell will not broach the matter of the Stark girl until after Joffrey’s wedding. If Sansa is wed before that, how can he take offense, when he gave us no hint of his intentions?” (Tyrion III, SOS)

Sansa is to visit Highgadren after the royal wedding. A consumated wedding is more difficult to be annuled.

I believe Olenna's goals were:

• to have backup. If the Lannisters lose the war, Tyrells could still make an alliance with the Starks.
• to appear as a formidable opponent to Twyin. As we know Sansa is the heir to Winterfell and has blood relations with Riverlands and the Vale.

8 hours ago, Renly's Banana said:

So not only was she planning to lie and steal from the Lannisters, but also lie to and do all of this behind her son's back. How would Mace have reacted to that? Under any other circumstance, I'm sure he would have jumped at the chance to gain more power and leverage, but if this had risked his daughter's chances of becoming queen -- and there is no doubt it would have done so -- he wouldn't have been too happy about it. A marriage to Joffrey is infinitely more valuable than a marriage to Sansa Stark. And Tywin Lannister is not a man to cheat or shame publicly like that. It's almost as if Olenna was banking on their alliance to break down and was already looking for escape routes. 

Mace is much influenced by his mother. In Tyrion III, Storm of Swords, Twyin metions that Mace rejected Cersei for Willas because of his mother. Plus, I think he seems greedy enough to get Winterfell too.

 

[black_hart]

Given that Joffrey was killed at his wedding and Sansa+Tyrion framed for this murder (mostly by LF, but Tyrells had to knew about the hairnet as well) the obvious question is: Was a murder plot already planned at this point w/o the specifics? If yes then the Tyrell's had no intention whatsoever to follow through with their post-wedding proposal to Sansa. The whole investigation of Joffrey's character etc. looks different in this light, i.e. as part of setting up Sansa as scapegoat. Or the plot only went ahead because Sansa Tyrell was thwarted by LF blabbing to Lannister.

[Lord of Raventree Hall]

Honestly; it was a great plan. Littlefinger just beat them to the punch. Tywin would be a fool to break the alliance with the Reach. Honestly, if Mace was more competant or Willas hadn't have been crippled, Willas could have probably made his own attempt at the crown, or some sort of alliance where Robb Stark and him could split up the land. The Reach is obviously the most powerful Kingdom further booyed by the fact that Renly died, and the Westerlands are severely weakened by Robb Stark and Stannis. If the Reach had a capable lord, they may have been able to win many of the lords that turned to Stannis to their side and have been able to smash Stannis in a temporary alliance with the Westerlands, before smashing the Westerlands in a temporary alliance with the North. They could have easily used the other lords to help eliminate each of their opponents before basically being the only army left in the South. Robb Stark could have the Riverlands and the North,  they could take the rest without much of a fight after Stannis and Tywin were defeated. The Stormlords were desperate for someone to follow after Renly died (and they didn't like Stannis) Dorne and the Vale didn't appear to be ready to fight them. A few well placed marriages could have won them both areas without a fight. Willas needs a wife; and Arriane was still available, if he was healthy, why wouldnt Doran agree to the match. They would still have the Iron Islands to deal with but if Robb and Willas are allied, they could have presented a united front against them. Anyways, I rambled, sorry.

[Protagoras]

Tyrells have Lannisters by the balls at this point. Without them, the king will no longer be king. Stannis is still in this, the northeners was just recently defeated (due to Reach assistance) and neither Dorne nor Riverlands nor Iron Islands are exactly stable. 

So, if the marriage happen- done it in secret in Highgarden, breaking the rules and committing treason, so what? What are the Lannisters going to do about it? Protest very loudly? The Tyrells are the one making the terms here and every punishment, every removal of a Reach councilman  and everyno to a Reach demand will mean less Reach assistance. Who cares how angry Tywin is. If he want to snub the ones with 100.000 soldiers, then its on him. At worst, they could even make a bid for independence.

[Lord Lannister]

If Sansa was spirited away to Highgarden and married it would pretty much be a fait accompli. Tywin and Cersei would be outraged, but there would be little they could do about it. If they cancel the wedding, the pretty much start the war back up... with a rather large Tyrell army inside King's Landing.

[Renly's Banana]

4 hours ago, Endymion I Targaryen said:

“When might I meet him?” asked Sansa, hesitantly. “Soon,” promised Margaery. “When you come to Highgarden, after Joffrey and I are wed. My grandmother will take you.” (Sansa I, SOS)

“Lord Tyrell will not broach the matter of the Stark girl until after Joffrey’s wedding. If Sansa is wed before that, how can he take offense, when he gave us no hint of his intentions?” (Tyrion III, SOS)

Sansa is to visit Highgadren after the royal wedding. A consumated wedding is more difficult to be annuled.

I had forgotten about these little tidbits, which actually explain a lot. It makes more sense that they were planning on stealing Sansa away after the wedding. Which begs the question: why in the hell would Olenna choose to divulge this secret with Sansa so early on? I guess she had no clue Sansa was such a blabbermouth? Or did she? 
We know Olenna intended to frame -- or at the very least make Sansa complicit -- in Joffrey's murder WAY before she had even gotten to the capital or met her. The whole hairnet fiasco could have been done a hundred different ways; why was it necessary to explicitly bring Sansa into that murder plot? Also, why was she planning all this knowing that Joffrey was going to die soon? I think Olenna was planning something a little bit bigger.. or at the very least, extremely reckless; the fact not even Mace Tyrell knew about it is very telling. 

Also I'm still not entirely convinced that Tywin wouldn't have called that wedding off. At least theoretically and momentarily, if she had been stolen before Joffrey and Marg's wedding. Especially if Mace didn't even know about it. Stannis was no longer the threat he was, the Ironborn are irrelevant pre-Euron and Robb was tied up in the Riverlands and expected to head back north. Even though the Tyrells had bigger numbers in KL, I doubt Mace would try something as ballsy as a coup to take the throne. Tywin would be entirely within his rights to halt that wedding because it is theft and treason. Sansa was a ward of the crown; she is their property to do with as they please. It's not a good look to be cheating your new in-laws before you even marry into their family.

But, as Endymion pointed out, they were planning to do all that after the wedding, so that point is moot. Though idk how Olenna expected Sansa would be allowed to leave anywhere after the shit-fit that would be Joffrey's murder. 

[John Suburbs]

3 hours ago, Renly's Banana said:

I had forgotten about these little tidbits, which actually explain a lot. It makes more sense that they were planning on stealing Sansa away after the wedding. Which begs the question: why in the hell would Olenna choose to divulge this secret with Sansa so early on? I guess she had no clue Sansa was such a blabbermouth? Or did she? 
We know Olenna intended to frame -- or at the very least make Sansa complicit -- in Joffrey's murder WAY before she had even gotten to the capital or met her. The whole hairnet fiasco could have been done a hundred different ways; why was it necessary to explicitly bring Sansa into that murder plot? Also, why was she planning all this knowing that Joffrey was going to die soon? I think Olenna was planning something a little bit bigger.. or at the very least, extremely reckless; the fact not even Mace Tyrell knew about it is very telling. 

Also I'm still not entirely convinced that Tywin wouldn't have called that wedding off. At least theoretically and momentarily, if she had been stolen before Joffrey and Marg's wedding. Especially if Mace didn't even know about it. Stannis was no longer the threat he was, the Ironborn are irrelevant pre-Euron and Robb was tied up in the Riverlands and expected to head back north. Even though the Tyrells had bigger numbers in KL, I doubt Mace would try something as ballsy as a coup to take the throne. Tywin would be entirely within his rights to halt that wedding because it is theft and treason. Sansa was a ward of the crown; she is their property to do with as they please. It's not a good look to be cheating your new in-laws before you even marry into their family.

But, as Endymion pointed out, they were planning to do all that after the wedding, so that point is moot. Though idk how Olenna expected Sansa would be allowed to leave anywhere after the shit-fit that would be Joffrey's murder. 

All of these questions go away once you realize that the intent was not to kill Joffrey, but Tyrion. The poison was not in the wine; it was in the pie.

[Endymion I Targaryen]

3 hours ago, Renly's Banana said:

I had forgotten about these little tidbits, which actually explain a lot. It makes more sense that they were planning on stealing Sansa away after the wedding. Which begs the question: why in the hell would Olenna choose to divulge this secret with Sansa so early on? I guess she had no clue Sansa was such a blabbermouth? Or did she? 
We know Olenna intended to frame -- or at the very least make Sansa complicit -- in Joffrey's murder WAY before she had even gotten to the capital or met her. The whole hairnet fiasco could have been done a hundred different ways; why was it necessary to explicitly bring Sansa into that murder plot? Also, why was she planning all this knowing that Joffrey was going to die soon? I think Olenna was planning something a little bit bigger.. or at the very least, extremely reckless; the fact not even Mace Tyrell knew about it is very telling. 

Olenna realised that her son wanted Margaery to be queen so she tried to make it work better for house Tyrell. Joffrey is not the ideal husband for Margaery and cannot be controlled. I doubt she had planned exactly how he would die. Sansa's role in the Purple Wedding was LF's doing IMO.Tyrells agreed because she was useless to them after her wedding to Tyrion.

3 hours ago, Renly's Banana said:

Also I'm still not entirely convinced that Tywin wouldn't have called that wedding off. At least theoretically and momentarily, if she had been stolen before Joffrey and Marg's wedding. Especially if Mace didn't even know about it. Stannis was no longer the threat he was, the Ironborn are irrelevant pre-Euron and Robb was tied up in the Riverlands and expected to head back north. Even though the Tyrells had bigger numbers in KL, I doubt Mace would try something as ballsy as a coup to take the throne. Tywin would be entirely within his rights to halt that wedding because it is theft and treason. Sansa was a ward of the crown; she is their property to do with as they please. It's not a good look to be cheating your new in-laws before you even marry into their family.

Ok, Twyin can call off the betrothal, offend Mace and send him to the Stark side. Tyrell - Stark alliance would be sealed with Sansa (who is stolen as you said) marrying Willas.House Lannister controlls only the Crownlands and Westerlands right now. Stormlands, North, Riverlands are openly hostile to them, Dorne, Iron Islands and the Vale are neutral and the Reach is the only one who send armies in the Blackwater because of Margaery-Joffrey. So Twyin cannot afford to lose house Tyrell.

[Colonel Green]

9 hours ago, black_hart said:

Given that Joffrey was killed at his wedding and Sansa+Tyrion framed for this murder (mostly by LF, but Tyrells had to knew about the hairnet as well) the obvious question is: Was a murder plot already planned at this point w/o the specifics? If yes then the Tyrell's had no intention whatsoever to follow through with their post-wedding proposal to Sansa. The whole investigation of Joffrey's character etc. looks different in this light, i.e. as part of setting up Sansa as scapegoat. Or the plot only went ahead because Sansa Tyrell was thwarted by LF blabbing to Lannister.

GRRM gave some interviews after the show's version of the Purple Wedding that clarified this.  The Tyrell plan was that:

1)  In the best case scenario, Joffrey's death is believed to be choking.  Nobody is held responsible, Sansa is spirited off to Highgarden and marries Willas afterward.  However...

2)  If it's determined to be poisoning, then Sansa will take the blame for it, because she's wearing the hairnet.

This also explains why the Tyrells didn't just ask for Sansa's hand upfront, which they could easily have done, given their enormous bargaining power.  They were waiting to see if she needed to take the fall; if she did, no reason to have the treasonous murderer formally associated with them beforehand.

[Renly's Banana]

35 minutes ago, John Suburbs said:

All of these questions go away once you realize that the intent was not to kill Joffrey, but Tyrion. The poison was not in the wine; it was in the pie.

Then what's the point of the hairnet? Why even bring that element into the story and involve Sansa if she would have had nothing to do with any of it? 
This is one of those tinfoil theories that over-complicates itself for no reason. 

29 minutes ago, Endymion I Targaryen said:

Olenna realised that her son wanted Margaery to be queen so she tried to make it work better for house Tyrell. Joffrey is not the ideal husband for Margaery and cannot be controlled. I doubt she had planned exactly how he would die. Sansa's role in the Purple Wedding was LF's doing IMO.Tyrells agreed because she was useless to them after her wedding to Tyrion.

But they were planning on making her complicit LONG before her wedding to Tyrion. Nobody suspected she would be married to Tyrion. Why would they determine she's "useless" before they even met her? That plan was set in motion before the Tyrells had even arrived. 

29 minutes ago, Endymion I Targaryen said:

Ok, Twyin can call off the betrothal, offend Mace and send him to the Stark side. Tyrell - Stark alliance would be sealed with Sansa (who is stolen as you said) marrying Willas.House Lannister controlls only the Crownlands and Westerlands right now. Stormlands, North, Riverlands are openly hostile to them, Dorne, Iron Islands and the Vale are neutral and the Reach is the only one who send armies in the Blackwater because of Margaery-Joffrey. So Twyin cannot afford to lose house Tyrell.

Why would you assume the Tyrells would immediately join Robb and go to war? Robb was not exactly in a good position -- he didn't even have Winterfell. Tywin also has the majority of the Stormlands on his side. The only place that remains pro-Stannis is Storm's End, everybody else bends the knee to the crown.  

[Praetor Xyn]

It's all been covered, but Tywin was nothing without the Reach. The Reach alone had like 3-4 times as many men as he did, if he called treason they'd just take the throne by force.

[The Ned's Little Girl]

1 hour ago, Renly's Banana said:

But they were planning on making her complicit LONG before her wedding to Tyrion. Nobody suspected she would be married to Tyrion. Why would they determine she's "useless" before they even met her? That plan was set in motion before the Tyrells had even arrived.

Not necessarily. I highly doubt that Littlefinger and the Tyrells were completely honest with each other about all of their plans.

It's entirely believable that the Tyrells schemed among themselves to get their paws on Sansa and kept that little tidbit to themselves (why would they confide such a thing in LF of all people?). Likewise, Littlefinger had every reason of his own to get Sansa entangled in the murder plot - to have leverage over her once he had stolen her away - but he had absolutely nothing to gain (and everything to lose) by allowing the Tyrells to know this.

Littlefinger always planned for Sansa to be made an (unwitting) accomplice in the murder. However, it makes sense to me that the possibility to have Sansa blamed for murder was dreamed up by the Tyrells later, after she had been snatched away from them by her marriage to Tyrion; a bit of payback from the Tyrells to the Lannisters if it had worked out that way.

[Castellan]

I think Olenna's plot was sound. Tywin did the same thing immediately when he found out about it - married Tyrion to Sansa, pointing out that the Tyrell's couldn't openly oppose it.

Tywin couldn't do without the Tyrell's support. This would apply even more so once they married Sansa to WIllas. They would then have the potential to take the North in the long run. Its true Tywin would hate them but its going to be a long time before he could get alternative allies to help him hold the throne. He is stuck with them and could not call off the marriage of Joffrey and Margaery. In any case, if Olenna had got Sansa to Highgarden, the Tyrells could have waited to announce any wedding until after Joffrey and Margaery were married. And Sansa is not essential to any plot to get rid of Joffrey. Tyrion is the perfect fall guy. It would be as easy to implicate him as Sansa. 

[Eden-Mackenzie]

23 hours ago, Renly's Banana said:

I had forgotten about these little tidbits, which actually explain a lot. It makes more sense that they were planning on stealing Sansa away after the wedding. Which begs the question: why in the hell would Olenna choose to divulge this secret with Sansa so early on? I guess she had no clue Sansa was such a blabbermouth? Or did she? 
We know Olenna intended to frame -- or at the very least make Sansa complicit -- in Joffrey's murder WAY before she had even gotten to the capital or met her. The whole hairnet fiasco could have been done a hundred different ways; why was it necessary to explicitly bring Sansa into that murder plot? Also, why was she planning all this knowing that Joffrey was going to die soon? I think Olenna was planning something a little bit bigger.. or at the very least, extremely reckless; the fact not even Mace Tyrell knew about it is very telling. 

Also I'm still not entirely convinced that Tywin wouldn't have called that wedding off. At least theoretically and momentarily, if she had been stolen before Joffrey and Marg's wedding. Especially if Mace didn't even know about it. Stannis was no longer the threat he was, the Ironborn are irrelevant pre-Euron and Robb was tied up in the Riverlands and expected to head back north. Even though the Tyrells had bigger numbers in KL, I doubt Mace would try something as ballsy as a coup to take the throne. Tywin would be entirely within his rights to halt that wedding because it is theft and treason. Sansa was a ward of the crown; she is their property to do with as they please. It's not a good look to be cheating your new in-laws before you even marry into their family.

But, as Endymion pointed out, they were planning to do all that after the wedding, so that point is moot. Though idk how Olenna expected Sansa would be allowed to leave anywhere after the shit-fit that would be Joffrey's murder. 

Maybe Joffrey's murder was in part retribution for the Lannisters disrupting the Tyrell-Stark alliance? Or, I should say, the timing of Joffrey's murder was moved up in retribution, since Joffrey's death was pretty much inevitable from the moment the Tyrell-Lannister alliance was proposed. 

The Stark-Tyrell alliance combined with the Lannister-Tyrell alliance could have led to a cessation of hostilities between Starks and Lannisters, at least temporarily, and a Stark-Tyrell alliance would mean nothing good for the Ironborn, especially pre-Euron, freeing up the Lannister-Tyrells to deal with Stannis. Tommen becomes lord of the Stormlands, guided by Kevan, and Dorne is at least nominally placated by Myrcella and Trystane's engagement. Everything calms down, Margaery has a baby boy, then whoops Joffrey falls of the battlements, comes down with some mystery ailment, has a hunting accident, or is slain by a member of his own Kingsguard after threatening to burn down the city, or whatever, and Margaery's baby inherits the Iron Throne. 

The only person the Stark-Tyrell alliance does nothing for is Littlefinger, who learns of its existence and promptly turns it on its head in such a way that he is the only winner. I think the Tyrells were in earnest when they reached out to Sansa: Willas moves to Winterfell, Garlan inherits Highgarden, Loras is in the Kingsguard, and Margaery's child will be King, and there's nothing the Lannisters can do about it because Margaery's child is a Lannister as well.