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Sansa and the Tyrells


Renly's Banana

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21 hours ago, Renly's Banana said:

Then what's the point of the hairnet? Why even bring that element into the story and involve Sansa if she would have had nothing to do with any of it?

Au contraire, the hairnet necessary precisely because Lady O did not join the plot until very late in the game -- after Sansa's marriage and the Red Wedding. If she was part of the plot way back at Bitterbridge as some people claim, then LF would just have given her the poison directly.

At the time the net was delivered, LF knew that he had to have Sansa, the poison and the target in the same place at the same time. He couldn't keep it himself and deliver it to Sansa at the last minute because he's not supposed to be anywhere near King's Landing, let alone the Red Keep. He can't let Dontos hold it because he'll just sell it and go on a bender. The only practical solution is to get it to Sansa as soon as possible (through Dontos, yes, but verified by Shae, who is also LF's agent), so that she knows it is the key to her salvation but she doesn't know how or why. Then, all she has to do is wear it as told so the poisoner, whomever it turns out to be, has easy access to it.

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To get at the OP's questions, I think it's also worth it to take a closer look at the dinner conversation between Sansa and Lady O, when the whole Willas plan was first revealed. Most people think this is Lady O trying to learn the truth about Joffrey and what kind of husband Margaergy is getting, but I beg to differ.

At first Sansa lies, which Lady O sees right through:

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"Joff . . . King Joffrey, he's . . . His Grace is very fair and handsome, and . . . brave as a lion."

"Yes, all the Lannisters are lions, and when a Tryell breaks wind it smells just like a rose," the old woman snapped. "But how kind is he? How clever? Has he a good heart, a gentle hand? Is he chivalrous as befits a king? Will he cherish Margaery and treat her tenderly, protect her honor as he would his own?"

"He will," Sansa lied. "He is very . . . very comely."

When she does cough up the truth, here is what she reveals:

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"Joffrey," said Sansa. "Joffrey did that. He promised me he would be merciful, and cut my father's head off. He said that was mercy, and he took me up on the walls and made me look at it. The head. He wanted me to weep, but . . ."

And then after Butterbumps starts singing"

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"A monster," she whispered, so tremulously she could scarcely hear her own voice. "Joffrey is a monster. He lied about the butcher's boy and made Father kill my wolf. When I displease him, he has the Kingsguard beat me. He's evil and cruel, my lady, it's so. And the queen as well."

But what, exactly, does Sansa tell Lady O about Joffrey that she shouldn't already know? That he's a monster? She should have gotten a pretty good accounting of his character from Loras, who'd been in the capital for some time before King's Robert's death, if not directly from Renly.

What about the fact that he killed Ned when he promised to be merciful? No big secret there. Joffrey declared in open court that Ned would get mercy, which would have been written down and recorded as official history of the realm. Then, in public at the Grand Sept, Joffrey declared that despite the wishes of his mother, his betrothed and his small council, he was taking Ned's head anyway. So from that Lady O should already know that Joffrey is not only cruel, but reckless, heedless and completely unaware of the geopolitical situation he's in.

What about the beatings? Even if those were done in private, there is absolutely no one on the planet who could harm the king's intended without being sent to Ser Illyn, except the king himself or the guards he commands. So the mere fact that Sansa is walking around court with black eyes and bloody lips is all anyone needs to know to determine who is doing it. And all doubts were removed at the beating following Oxcross, which was conducted publicly in front of numerous high lords and ladies, including two of Lady O's own grandsons.

At best, Lady O might not have heard the story about the Lady, but since this is already being chattered about in King's Landing by the time Ned and Co. arrive, she's probably heard this one as well. And compared to all of Joffrey deeds that she does know about, this one is rather tame.

But if not to find out about Joffrey, then what was the point of that conversation? Well, let's turn the question around a bit. If she already knows what kind of person Joffrey is, then what doesn't Lady O know that she could only get from Sansa directly? The answer is: Sansa herself.

Sansa grew up in the north, where the Tyrells have little or no sources of information, and then was brought to King's Landing where she was observed at court as the courteous, dutiful, pretty daughter of Lord Eddard. And after Ned's downfall, Sansa is shunned by everyone: no suppers, no private conversations . . . she's toxic. But as Lady O knows better than anyone, appearances at court can be deceiving. She has no clue as to what kind of person Sansa is. Is she smart? Foolish? Conniving? A gold digger? Would she be a useful addition to House Tyrell, or a pain in the ass?

So when Sansa finally told the truth about Joffrey -- a truth that Lady O already knew, way before the marriage was brokered -- it proved that she was not only kind and caring, but actually very brave. She stuck her neck out to warn a total stranger of the danger Joffrey posed even though it placed her own position, even her life, in great jeopardy.

And it was right after that that the Willas plan was offered.

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On 13/04/2017 at 10:33 PM, John Suburbs said:

All of these questions go away once you realize that the intent was not to kill Joffrey, but Tyrion. The poison was not in the wine; it was in the pie.

How does one "realize" things that are pure fan-wank, made up by people waiting for WoW to pass the time?

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I'm a huge Sansa fan, so I really hoped she'd get to marry Willas and become the Lady of Highgarden.... But the nature of the story, especially for Sansa, whenever her hopes are up they get destroyed and things just get worse for my girl.. I'm really worried about this whole potential Harry the Heir situation in TWOW.

Out of all the options I still think Willas would make her happiest. I Highly doubt it will happen but the irony if her knight in shining armor actually being lame, and not an actual knight, would be an appropriate ending for Sansa who began as a typical shallow, materialistic adolescent girl. 

Wishful thinking....

 

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On ‎4‎/‎14‎/‎2017 at 4:58 PM, Orphalesion said:

How does one "realize" things that are pure fan-wank, made up by people waiting for WoW to pass the time?

When you read the book and see all the facts that make the wine impossible, and all the ways in which the pie answers the nagging questions that continue to surface over the purple wedding.

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4 hours ago, John Suburbs said:

When you read the book and see all the facts that make the wine impossible, and all the ways in which the pie answers the nagging questions that continue to surface over the purple wedding.

Except the scenario as presented in the books makes perfect sense and is not impossible, at all. Unless one insists on every little thin in the book being a ruse for something else and/or having a double/triple/quadruple meaning.

But I suppose I have to remember #EverythingIsTheOppositeOf What'sWrittenOnThePage.

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3 hours ago, Orphalesion said:

Except the scenario as presented in the books makes perfect sense and is not impossible, at all. Unless one insists on every little thin in the book being a ruse for something else and/or having a double/triple/quadruple meaning.

But I suppose I have to remember #EverythingIsTheOppositeOf What'sWrittenOnThePage.

It is impossible. LF could never predict Joffrey would place the chalice at exactly the right spot at exactly the right time. Joffrey's multiple chugs of deep purple wine could in no way take five or six times longer than Cressen's tiny sip of normal-looking wine.

It doesn't make even the slightest bit of sense. Lady O would never take part in a scheme that has such a risky element as dropping a crystal into a giant chalice in front of hundreds of people while her entire family is surrounded by Lannister guards. Margaery is in absolutely no danger from Joffrey and there is not the slightest indication that either she or Lady O are concerned about him in the least. It is utterly absurd that she would throw away an heir to the Iron Throne within a year on the vague hope that maybe, five years into the future or more, she might get the same from Tommen. LF could not possibly think that he would get more chaos in the realm with Tommen on the throne instead of Joffrey. There is absolutely no need for the hairnet when LF could simply have given Lady O the poison to carry herself. Garlen is the only one who has even the slimmest chance of reaching the lip of the chalice, and there is no way he would use poison. On and on it goes: virtually every point in the entire wine plot falls apart under even the most cursory examination.

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7 hours ago, John Suburbs said:

It is impossible. LF could never predict Joffrey would place the chalice at exactly the right spot at exactly the right time. Joffrey's multiple chugs of deep purple wine could in no way take five or six times longer than Cressen's tiny sip of normal-looking wine.

It doesn't make even the slightest bit of sense. Lady O would never take part in a scheme that has such a risky element as dropping a crystal into a giant chalice in front of hundreds of people while her entire family is surrounded by Lannister guards. Margaery is in absolutely no danger from Joffrey and there is not the slightest indication that either she or Lady O are concerned about him in the least. It is utterly absurd that she would throw away an heir to the Iron Throne within a year on the vague hope that maybe, five years into the future or more, she might get the same from Tommen. LF could not possibly think that he would get more chaos in the realm with Tommen on the throne instead of Joffrey. There is absolutely no need for the hairnet when LF could simply have given Lady O the poison to carry herself. Garlen is the only one who has even the slimmest chance of reaching the lip of the chalice, and there is no way he would use poison. On and on it goes: virtually every point in the entire wine plot falls apart under even the most cursory examination.

Except Olenna is trying to protect Margery and Loras. Jofferey can't be allowed to be married to Margery for any length of time - he'll get abusive on her, Loras will kill him, the whole thing falls apart. And everyone at the high table is distracted, and half of them are Tyrells in the first place. Using Sansa as a patsy is perfect, as she has motive and is in the right position. LF has Donas sprint Sansa away, and she is a hunted woman, perfect for his need to control her.

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8 hours ago, 1000th Lord Commander said:

Except Olenna is trying to protect Margery and Loras. Jofferey can't be allowed to be married to Margery for any length of time - he'll get abusive on her, Loras will kill him, the whole thing falls apart. And everyone at the high table is distracted, and half of them are Tyrells in the first place. Using Sansa as a patsy is perfect, as she has motive and is in the right position. LF has Donas sprint Sansa away, and she is a hunted woman, perfect for his need to control her.

Protect them from who? Joffrey? Talk about fan-fiction. Show me any text that indicates Margaery is in any danger from Joffrey at all. He has absolutely no reason to be upset with her, and his actions at the wedding show he's tickled pink to be marrying her and not Sansa. Neither Lady O nor Margaery express any concern over Joffrey, and Margaery actually denies it outright and has no reason whatsoever to lie about it to Sansa. All we have to back up the abusive Joffrey theory is Littlefinger, the biggest liar in the story who has every reason in the world to lie to Sansa about how he screwed up big time and now her life is in greater jeopardy than ever.

Maybe someday Joffrey will hurt Margaery, but it certainly won't be that night, and he's certainly not going to gut her like a salmon in their wedding bed. So the very next day, Margaery will wake up as queen of the realm, Cersei will be sent off to her next husband, and there will be a Tyrell heir on the IT within the year. And even if Joff, at some future point in time, gives Margaery the Sansa treatment, there are plenty of ways to remove him that don't involve jeopardizing your entire family in a high-risk plan in front of literally hundreds of witnesses. And that's even if they determine that a few blacks eyes and a bloody lip are worth committing regicide over, which is absurd because plenty of queens, both real and imagined, have suffered far worse for their crowns, and both Margaery and Lady O are acutely aware of this.

And ok, the high table can't see the crystal drop. What about the thousand other pairs of eyes in the throne room, all of which are facing the high table and have direct line of sight to the three-foot-tall chalice as the birds are flying every which way? How can they be even remotely confident that not one single person will see this move and call out the poisoner -- and all the while virtually the entire Tyrell family is in the room surrounded by Lannister guards? And all to prevent a few black eyes that Joffrey might give to Margy at some point in the future. Please.

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16 hours ago, John Suburbs said:

All we have to back up the abusive Joffrey theory is Littlefinger, the biggest liar in the story who has every reason in the world to lie to Sansa about how he screwed up big time and now her life is in greater jeopardy than ever.

Really? We are talking about Joffrey the Abomination, first of his name. The guy who personally shoots people begging for bread? Takes time in battle for personal sadistic pleasures (tossing prisoners over the wall) instead of being useful? Attacks playing children with a weapon? Tries to kill a girl whose sister he is dating (betrothed)? Calls execution mercy? Sends an assassin to a crippled child? Does justice by making ppl fight to the death for his amusement? This man is no danger to Margaery and only Littlefinger could be origin of that notion. Really?

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7 hours ago, black_hart said:

Really? We are talking about Joffrey the Abomination, first of his name. The guy who personally shoots people begging for bread? Takes time in battle for personal sadistic pleasures (tossing prisoners over the wall) instead of being useful? Attacks playing children with a weapon? Tries to kill a girl whose sister he is dating (betrothed)? Calls execution mercy? Sends an assassin to a crippled child? Does justice by making ppl fight to the death for his amusement? This man is no danger to Margaery and only Littlefinger could be origin of that notion. Really?

Joffrey, the one who:

Quote

...took his queen by the hand. "Come, my lady, it's the pie."

and

Quote

...took his bride in his arms, and whirled her around merrily.

Joffrey only mistreats people who he is displeased with, and Margaery has given him no excuse whatever to draw has wrath. Maybe she will someday, but there are much cleaner and far less riskier ways of removing him than poisoning him in front of hundreds of witnesses when your entire family is surrounded by Lannister guards. And by then Margy will have provided one or two new Tyrells for the Iron Throne and she can rule as regent, since Cersei will have been shipped off to her next husband long ago. And even if Margaery does get the Sansa treatment, both she and Lady O know that a few black eyes and a bloody lip are well worth the price of the Iron Throne. Many queens, both real and fictional, have endured far worse for their crowns.

The only way Lady O would take such a risk with her entire family is if she is absolutely convinced that Margaery will not survive the night with Joffrey, and that is clearly not the case. He is overjoyed to be marrying her instead of mopey Sansa. Margy is in absolutely no danger from Joffrey: she states this outright and the text confirms it.

And there is no evidence that Joffrey forced anyone to fight to the death. He says it, but it doesn't happen.

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He transitioned from a date with Sansa to trying to kill her sister within seconds. Seriously, we have his fondness of duels to death stated as fact from two narrators (both Sansa and Tyrion), we don't see the duel happen on page, but we see enough. No evidence hmmph.

Sansa VI, AGoT:

Two knights came to him with a dispute about some land, and he decreed that they should duel for it on the morrow. "To the death," he added.

Sansa:

The king laughed. "My dog has a fierce bark. Perhaps I should command him to fight the day's champion. To the death." Joffrey was fond of making men fight to the death.

Tyrion:

Joff's fondness for making men fight to the death was trial enough; he had no intention of allowing the boy to taste the possibilities of burning them alive.
 

 

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3 hours ago, black_hart said:

He transitioned from a date with Sansa to trying to kill her sister within seconds. Seriously, we have his fondness of duels to death stated as fact from two narrators (both Sansa and Tyrion), we don't see the duel happen on page, but we see enough. No evidence hmmph.

Sansa VI, AGoT:

Two knights came to him with a dispute about some land, and he decreed that they should duel for it on the morrow. "To the death," he added.

Sansa:

The king laughed. "My dog has a fierce bark. Perhaps I should command him to fight the day's champion. To the death." Joffrey was fond of making men fight to the death.

Tyrion:

Joff's fondness for making men fight to the death was trial enough; he had no intention of allowing the boy to taste the possibilities of burning them alive.
 

 

And yet we hear nothing about the poor sobs who lost their lives because Joffrey forced them to duel to the death. This is nothing more than a little braggart shooting his mouth off -- all talk and no action. Lady O has been through four rebellions and the Mad King years, when high lords were being roasted alive with wildfire. She knows what real suffering is, and a few black eyes is kids stuff to her.

All this is irrelevant anyway. Joffrey's attitude toward Margaery is what's important here, and the text is clear that he's like a puppy around her. I'll go so far as to say that Margy is probably the only person on the planet that Joffrey doesn't despise, and the way she coos and fawns over him show that she knows how to play him like a Stradivarius. So there is ample text that proves Margaery is in no danger from Joffrey, nor does she or Lady O believe that she is -- certainly not to the degree that they would risk the lives of the entire Tyrell family save one (and quite a few Redwynes) on the faintest of hopes that they can drop a poison into a three foot chalice without being seen by one of the hundreds of people in the room who have direct line of sight to it.

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5 hours ago, John Suburbs said:

Joffrey's attitude toward Margaery is what's important here, and the text is clear that he's like a puppy around her.

Joffrey was also like a puppy around Sansa at Winterfell. He also was sweet, gentle, kind and thoughtful during the horse ride they took when they saw Arya and Mycah. It took hem less then 10 seconds to turn from Prince Charming to the Mad Prince. He even was kind to her during the Tourney of the Hand.

Joffrey never is, was of would have been a sweet, gentle, kind and thoughtful boy/man. It simply is an act by him, which he needs to perform in order to be accepted by everyone. He is/was the heir to the Throne and he knew that if he acted like a mad man all the time, he would never be accepted as a true king.

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On 4/13/2017 at 7:14 PM, The Ned's Little Girl said:

Not necessarily. I highly doubt that Littlefinger and the Tyrells were completely honest with each other about all of their plans.

It's entirely believable that the Tyrells schemed among themselves to get their paws on Sansa and kept that little tidbit to themselves (why would they confide such a thing in LF of all people?). Likewise, Littlefinger had every reason of his own to get Sansa entangled in the murder plot - to have leverage over her once he had stolen her away - but he had absolutely nothing to gain (and everything to lose) by allowing the Tyrells to know this.

Littlefinger always planned for Sansa to be made an (unwitting) accomplice in the murder. However, it makes sense to me that the possibility to have Sansa blamed for murder was dreamed up by the Tyrells later, after she had been snatched away from them by her marriage to Tyrion; a bit of payback from the Tyrells to the Lannisters if it had worked out that way.

Well mainly because I think that Baelish has been plotting with the Tyrells for awhile. It's only a theory but he was certainly close with Renly and Loras in GOT. I suspect Baelish would have opened the gates for the Tyrell/Baratheon host but Renly got shadow babied before that could happen. This of course doesn't mean that each side is completely open about all their goals and motivations. I doubt any groups working in this story are that open.

Yes it is clear that Baelish had no idea about the Sansa/Willas plan until Sansa told it to Dontos. I also think that Baelish had a hand or at the very least a little finger in the riots in KL. I think he planned to steal Sansa at that point and leave the city with the boatload of gold the Lannisters gave him. Then he could help ally the Starks and Tyrells to crush Stannis and the Lannisters. Then the Hound saved her from the kidnappers and he is forced back into helping the Lannisters.

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8 hours ago, John Suburbs said:

nor does she or Lady O believe that she is -- certainly not to the degree that they would risk the lives of the entire Tyrell family save one (and quite a few Redwynes) on the faintest of hopes that they can drop a poison into a three foot chalice without being seen by one of the hundreds of people in the room who have direct line of sight to it.

Yet, they did. (Though I guess you are a lemon cream / Tyrion was the intended victim man.)

What really concerns me is how you laugh off evidence from the book. You have multiple PoV's telling you Joffrey is known for and fond of letting people fight to death and one case where he clearly is commanding it, but you go all ... "young man shooting his mouth off, just a bit of bragging, nothing to see here and even if it is not relevant". I gave you three quotes, so: Does Joffrey let people fight to death? Yes or no? If it isn't relevant, why the denial?

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14 hours ago, Ser Walter of AShwood said:

Joffrey was also like a puppy around Sansa at Winterfell. He also was sweet, gentle, kind and thoughtful during the horse ride they took when they saw Arya and Mycah. It took hem less then 10 seconds to turn from Prince Charming to the Mad Prince. He even was kind to her during the Tourney of the Hand.

Joffrey never is, was of would have been a sweet, gentle, kind and thoughtful boy/man. It simply is an act by him, which he needs to perform in order to be accepted by everyone. He is/was the heir to the Throne and he knew that if he acted like a mad man all the time, he would never be accepted as a true king.

Well, he was hardly a puppy with Sansa. He was polite and dutiful, but he never whisked her away or twirled her merrily. And you should note that until the Trident, Joffrey had no reason to turn on Sansa, and when that changed, so did Joffrey -- no attempt to hid his feelings at all. Later, at the riverside, he is, again, polite and proper but as soon as Cersei left, Joffrey dropped her like a hot rock to the tender care of the Hound. So no, Joffrey is terrible at hiding his true feelings toward people. He is, in fact, one of the most transparent, easily manipulated characters in the book.

And it is also a fact that Sansa's and Margaery's relationship with Joffrey are not even remotely similar. Sansa witnessed Joffrey's humiliation on the Trident and then continued to correct him and chide him in virtually every conversation they had in Clash. Add to that, she is the daughter of traitors, brother to a usurper and she has absolutely no one -- no family, no friends, no swords -- to look out for her in King's Landing, which makes her a perfect target for the hostility that Joffrey feels for her personally and the political threat she represents. Margaery has none of this baggage. She is the key to the alliance with House Tyrell, she has an army at her back and a brother in the kingsguard. Plus, she manipulates Joffrey like a pro and is a smoking hot 17-year-old who will take 13yo Joffrey to bed and literally rock his world night after night. He is like putty in her hands, and she has absolutely no reason whatsoever to fear for her safety for months if not years. And if she does appear in court with even a scratch on her, you can bet that Tywin will be in Joffrey's face reading him the riot act for jeopardizing the alliance that they both so desperately need.

So my point remains firm: Lady O has absolutely no reason to take such a drastic act as regicide, and in a manner that has virtually no chance of succeeding at a time when her entire family is at risk, all to prevent a problem that may or may not arise months if not years in the future when Margaery is mother to the new king and Joffrey can be gotten rid of easily and with no witnesses.

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12 hours ago, black_hart said:

Yet, they did. (Though I guess you are a lemon cream / Tyrion was the intended victim man.)

What really concerns me is how you laugh off evidence from the book. You have multiple PoV's telling you Joffrey is known for and fond of letting people fight to death and one case where he clearly is commanding it, but you go all ... "young man shooting his mouth off, just a bit of bragging, nothing to see here and even if it is not relevant". I gave you three quotes, so: Does Joffrey let people fight to death? Yes or no? If it isn't relevant, why the denial?

No, it wasn't in the cream. It was the in pie itself.

No, there have been no fights to the death. Nobody ever mentions them, nobody laments the poor lord who lost his life to Joffrey's whim, nobody is talking about the arrival of bloodsport in the Seven Kingdoms. You have three quotes of Joffrey shooting off his mouth, nothing more. Produce some text that has the fights actually happening and I'll concede the point, but as it stands now, these fights are completely imaginary.

When Stannis Baratheon sent envoys under a peace banner from Storm's End to treat with Mace Tyrell, Lady Olenna's own son had their heads cut off and launched over the castle walls. It's a harsh world and it takes a lot more than bruises on a highborn or the deaths of a few smallfolk to send someone like Lady O into a panic.

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33 minutes ago, John Suburbs said:

No, it wasn't in the cream. It was the in pie itself.

No, there have been no fights to the death. Nobody ever mentions them, nobody laments the poor lord who lost his life to Joffrey's whim, nobody is talking about the arrival of bloodsport in the Seven Kingdoms. You have three quotes of Joffrey shooting off his mouth, nothing more. Produce some text that has the fights actually happening and I'll concede the point, but as it stands now, these fights are completely imaginary.

When Stannis Baratheon sent envoys under a peace banner from Storm's End to treat with Mace Tyrell, Lady Olenna's own son had their heads cut off and launched over the castle walls. It's a harsh world and it takes a lot more than bruises on a highborn or the deaths of a few smallfolk to send someone like Lady O into a panic.

Send Olenna into a panic? Are you talking about.. her acting shocked and distraught over Joffrey choking? I imagine putting on an act is not too tough for her.

I've never really gotten this theory that it was the pie that was poisoned and it was meant for Tyrion, because it's ridiculous how much it over-complicates everything. If you're aiming to kill a specific person, why would you poison the most obvious and central food at the wedding? That's like going, "I want to kill Bob the janitor at this event, do I'm gonna poison the wedding cake that everyone's gonna eat." What if someone else had tried the cake first? What if Tyrion didn't want to eat it? What if EVERYONE had eaten the cake except him? What kind of bumbling assassination is that? 

The reason Joffrey was murdered at his own wedding is because they (mainly Olenna) meant for the whole realm to see this happen with their own eyes. The drunk king would have choked on his food in front of everyone and it'd be a natural death, no questions asked. Poison isn't even brought up until Cersei accuses Tyrion. Had she not done that, no one would have been arrested for his death. So why would they try to poison Tyrion at Joffrey's wedding? Why not just poison his wine when he's alone somewhere and be done with it? 

As for Olenna not being able to drop the poison without being seen, GRRM goes out of his way to describe the scene as being chaotic. It's a party, and a very long and tedious one. Everyone is constantly moving, there are jesters and performers and even dogs running around. It would be entirely believable that she can discretely drop this little stone into the chalice.

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19 hours ago, Renly's Banana said:

Send Olenna into a panic? Are you talking about.. her acting shocked and distraught over Joffrey choking? I imagine putting on an act is not too tough for her.

I've never really gotten this theory that it was the pie that was poisoned and it was meant for Tyrion, because it's ridiculous how much it over-complicates everything. If you're aiming to kill a specific person, why would you poison the most obvious and central food at the wedding? That's like going, "I want to kill Bob the janitor at this event, do I'm gonna poison the wedding cake that everyone's gonna eat." What if someone else had tried the cake first? What if Tyrion didn't want to eat it? What if EVERYONE had eaten the cake except him? What kind of bumbling assassination is that? 

The reason Joffrey was murdered at his own wedding is because they (mainly Olenna) meant for the whole realm to see this happen with their own eyes. The drunk king would have choked on his food in front of everyone and it'd be a natural death, no questions asked. Poison isn't even brought up until Cersei accuses Tyrion. Had she not done that, no one would have been arrested for his death. So why would they try to poison Tyrion at Joffrey's wedding? Why not just poison his wine when he's alone somewhere and be done with it? 

As for Olenna not being able to drop the poison without being seen, GRRM goes out of his way to describe the scene as being chaotic. It's a party, and a very long and tedious one. Everyone is constantly moving, there are jesters and performers and even dogs running around. It would be entirely believable that she can discretely drop this little stone into the chalice.

No, I'm talking about the idea that Lady O is so terrified that Joffrey is going to hurt Margaery that she goes to the extreme measure of killing him, and in such a way that all but guarantees that someone will see the poisoning and in a situation in which the entire Tyrell family (save one) is surrounded by Lannister guards. There is no evidence that either Lady O or Margaery are worried about Joffrey in the slightest, and ample evidence that Joffrey is not only not going to hurt her but has fallen for her big time.

As I said above, maybe someday that will change. But that could be months if not years in the future. If it ever becomes necessary to remove him, it can be done privately with no witnesses and disguised to look like an accident, and by then Margaery will have produced one if not two heirs to the IT, and she will rule as queen regent until they come of age. But it will take far more than a black eye and a bloody lip to get to that point -- her life would have to be in imminent danger.

You seem to misunderstand which pie got the poison. I'm not talking about the big pie that had all the pigeons in it -- nobody is going to eat any part of that. I'm talking about Tyrion's pie -- the slice that was placed directly in front of him immediately after the cutting ceremony. From this we can conclude two things: that all the edible pies were prepared, cut and plated ahead of time, and that the ones meant for the head table were right behind it as the ceremony was underway -- either on a table or already in the hands of servants. This would be the same area that Lady O is last seen, just moment's before the big pie comes in, standing and leaning on her cane. So there you have Lady O, the poison and the pie -- Tyrion's pie, meant only for Tyrion -- all in the same area right when the poison was deployed. Lady O also knows that Tyrion will definitely eat at least one bite of his pie because it is not just another course in the feast; it is the Wedding Pie and "It's ill luck not to eat the pie." Like our wedding cake, all guests are expected to eat at least one bite as a courtesy to the bride and groom, and she even has a very good idea as to which bite he will take: the pointy end, which is also the easiest to poison.

Sorry, this idea that people would think that Joffrey simply choked is a non-starter. How to explain the disappearance of Sansa? How would they expect Sansa to be of any use if Tyrion is still alive, which he would be if he isn't framed for the murder? How could they guarantee that Joffrey would be eating and drinking at the same time? You can't choke on wine.

Tyrion has to be poisoned at the wedding because 1) they have no way of getting to him at any other time, since they don't know where he is going to eat, drink or be merry at any given time, and it's not like they have trusted servants all over the Red Keep, and 2) they need to create a diversion to cover Sansa's escape.

Lady Olenna is barely half a head taller than Tyrion. The chalice is three feet tall and sitting so far from the edge of the table that Tyrion has to climb into his seat just to reach the stem. How is Lady O supposed to drop the poison over the lip of the chalice? She would literally have to climb onto the table to do it.

The closer you look at it, you'll realize that it's the wine that is overly complicated and requires us to assume that literally nothing and no one is at it seems, while the pie conforms to the text and actual reality in every detail.

 

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