Rhaegar wasn't polygamous, he was dumping Elia for Lyanna

[40 Thousand Skeletons]

1 hour ago, John Doe said:

Of course he was, but probably not because of politics.

Do you think his wife was okay with her being replaced as Rhaegar's child-bearer because of a prophecy, then killed because of the war Rhaegar provoked? With him not showing up for months, leaving her and the kids at Aerys's grace? And with him actively threatening her position as the future first lady and subsequently queen mother? I don't get how the same people who give Robert shit for being unfaithful to Cersei don't critizise Rhaegar at least as harshly. For all we know he was a dick.

Um... no I do not think Elia would have been thrilled. And yeah, regardless how much politics played into it, it was kind of a dick move.

[Lord Varys]

8 hours ago, Moiraine Sedai said:

The Blackwoods are not particularly wealthy nor influential.  I wonder what role, if any, they will play in this story going forward.  What attracted Aegon IV and V to a Blackwood girl?  A family like the Blackwoods would normally fall under the radar and not receive any attention from the ruling royal family. 

It seems that Aegon V was in love with Betha Blackwood. He was Maekar's youngest son and very unlikely to inherit the Iron Throne when he wed her in 220 AC else such a match would have been opposed by the king, the royal family, the court, the Faith, the lords, and the people.

Aegon IV basically fucked pretty much every woman he ever met. Melissa Blackwood and the two Bracken girls were pretty and interesting enough to become his mistresses.

1 hour ago, 40 Thousand Skeletons said:

Well regardless of what the smart move was, obviously Rhaegar did not go for the surprise move. It seems that his original plan was to get lords on his side and peacefully remove Aerys from power.

LOL "these bullshit theories"  

That was his plan. And he buried it when his father came to Harrenhal. Rhaegar had neither the stamina nor the determination to actually challenge his father openly or secretly. And the idea that many lords would have actually sided with him over Aerys is pretty far-fetched. The man could be generous and was Rhaegar's father, the anointed king. A son rebelling against a father would set a very dangerous precedent, especially for the sons of those lords. It is one thing to put a brother against a (half-)brother or sister but to put a son against his father is a different thing. A son's claim usually comes from his father. While Aerys yet lived Rhaegar could never wear his father's crown. And patricide and regicide are amongst the worst crimes in Westeros.

1 hour ago, 40 Thousand Skeletons said:

LOL thank you for articulating both of these points better than I managed to

Those are not exactly very good points. Lysa Tully was married to Jon Arryn despite the fact that she had been deflowered and impregnated by one of Jon Arryn's most insignificant vassals.

Robert would have married Lyanna had she survived the war if Ned had insisted he marry her. Eddard Stark and Jon Arryn put Robert Baratheon on the Iron Throne and Eddard, Hoster, and Jon could depose him as quickly as they crowned him. Robert was in desperate need to cement and continue the alliances that made him king. Rejecting Lyanna if Ned had pushed her onto him could have cost him the support of both the Starks and the Tullys.

[The Lord of the Crossing]

It's fun to speculate why Rhaegar did what he did to Elia and the kids.  It could be that Rhaegar was willing to forget the laws of gods and men to satisfy his sexual attraction to Lyanna Stark.  Maybe he just said, "to hell with it" and ran off with Lyanna.  It's irresponsible behavior for sure but many powerful men have done the same thing.  Even Ned Stark, who fathered a bastard until proven otherwise. 

[Hodor the Articulate]

12 hours ago, Ygrain said:

This has nothing to do with attractivity, the point is the loss of status and thus, at least partly, of political value. The Lord Paramount's wife cannot be the subject of gossip and snickers behind her Lord husband's back, who would be seen as taking another man's leftovers, therefore Lyanna would have to marry a man of lower status, for whom the Stark blood would balance her publically known loss of virginity.

Yes, a "soiled" lady would lose some political value, but they would not be "basically worthless" as 40 Thousand Skeletons claims. That is what I was arguing against. Lysa is proof of that. Despite being the younger daughter and having already been impregnated, she was still married off to a Lord Paramount.

You say it is not about attractiveness, but that is the exact reason you say Robert would have rejected Lyanna for. Marrying Lyanna is marrying House Stark. The only reason to reject her would be for personal reasons, i.e. fear of humiliation, wounded pride. Looking at it politically, which is what noble marriages are all about, whatever shame might come with the marriage is nothing compared to the power and prestige bundled with a Stark marriage.

12 hours ago, Ygrain said:

This is not about a word, but about Lyanna and Brandon's notable horseriding skills. It is the skills that gave rise to the theorising on their warging, not the wording.

That's even more nonsensical, since there's a whole host of characters that are said to be skilled horseriders, most notably, the Dothraki. If we take every mention of animals being associated with characters as a sign that they are skinchangers, we have half of Planetos with the ability to control animals. We can't have that, not when they're too busy all being secret Targs.

[purple-eyes]

we should not call rhaegar a jerk or dick. at least He did not murder Elia and blamed it on her bad health in order to marry Lyanna as his official second wife. He can do this very very easily but he did not. Quite opposite he chose to run away with his lover and hide in a broken tower in desert, running the risk of ruining his own reputation and his lover's reputation. He is such a kind man, isn't he? 

[Lord Varys]

7 hours ago, Hodor the Articulate said:

You say it is not about attractiveness, but that is the exact reason you say Robert would have rejected Lyanna for. Marrying Lyanna is marrying House Stark. The only reason to reject her would be for personal reasons, i.e. fear of humiliation, wounded pride. Looking at it politically, which is what noble marriages are all about, whatever shame might come with the marriage is nothing compared to the power and prestige bundled with a Stark marriage.

Robert makes it pretty clear that he still intended to marry Lyanna Stark by the time of her death. She was his betrothed and he fought a war to save her. Her opinion in all that mattered as much as Cersei's, Sansa's, Lysa's, Catelyn's, etc. when their respective marriages were discussed. Robert put an ass soiled by the blood of royal women and children on his stolen Iron Throne. He needed all the help he could get to establish his new dynasty. That's why Jon Arryn and Tywin could convince him to marry Cersei to bind House Lannister to his dynasty. If Lyanna had lived Ned (and Hoster and Jon) would have forced him to accept Lyanna as his wife to ensure that the alliance that put him on the throne remained intact.

It was a matter of honor and contracts to go through with such an agreement. Ned married Catelyn in Brandon's place and Robert would have forced to take a soiled Lyanna unless, of course, Eddard Stark had no insisted that he take her.

But even then - Robert desperately wanted Lyanna, apparently, so we can be pretty sure he would have taken her under any circumstances. Robert never shows any indication that he is obsessed with having a virgin as a bride. And Westeros is not as obsessed with virginity as certain real world cultures. Decency demands that maidens come into the marriage beds of the husbands as virgins but that is just an ideal, not proper procedure. It circumstances demand that you marry a widow even kings feast on another man's leavings as Joffrey and Tommen prove.

[Bael's Bastard]

I don't see any indication that Rhaegar ever wanted or intended to set Elia aside, and I think there is zero chance that Rhaegar ever obtained approval to set Elia aside. If he married Lyanna then he was most likely married to two women at one time, and was still married to Elia when he returned to King's Landing before the Battle of the Trident.

Tywin was Rhaegar's most natural ally among the Great Houses, but that doesn't mean he would have supported him unconditionally. The post-Rebellion Targaryens and Martells were natural allies, but they still required a marriage pact. Even then, as the agreed upon marriage hasn't materialized, the sides appear to have done little or nothing to aid each other in the decade since.

Freeing Jaime from the KG would have been a start, but that would have just corrected a wrong that had been done to Tywin and House Lannister. Giving back something that was stolen in the first place. Tywin wanted Cersei to be Rhaegar's queen. I am open to the possibility that Tywin may have at one point been willing to marry Cersei to Viserys if he believed Elia would survive, or Rhaegar wouldn't remarry if she died.

But under no circumstances can I see Tywin going along with Rhaegar marrying again and it being anyone other than Cersei. That would be an insurmountable insult to Tywin, and would kill any plans they made together.

If Rhaegar went into the Harrenhal tourney to win houses to his cause, he did the opposite. He took the controversy off his father and put it squarely on himself. He alienated natural allies like the Lannisters and Martells, and he alienated those, like the Starks and Baratheons, he might have hoped to win to his cause. If anything, the Lyanna thing seems like Rhaegar completely abandoning, and sacrificing what remained of, his political plots.

[Ygrain]

13 hours ago, Hodor the Articulate said:

Yes, a "soiled" lady would lose some political value, but they would not be "basically worthless" as 40 Thousand Skeletons claims. That is what I was arguing against. Lysa is proof of that. Despite being the younger daughter and having already been impregnated, she was still married off to a Lord Paramount.

Well, that depends on a point of view. A Lord Paramount's "soiled" daughter would be useful for tying some vassal closer, but basically worthless for marriage among peers.

 

13 hours ago, Hodor the Articulate said:

You say it is not about attractiveness, but that is the exact reason you say Robert would have rejected Lyanna for. Marrying Lyanna is marrying House Stark. The only reason to reject her would be for personal reasons, i.e. fear of humiliation, wounded pride. Looking at it politically, which is what noble marriages are all about, whatever shame might come with the marriage is nothing compared to the power and prestige bundled with a Stark marriage.

The same problem as above. For a Lord of the Stormlands, marrying into the Starks is not such a huge bonus, they are equals. Plus, it is not like the Starks seem to  hold that much prestige with the Southern houses.

13 hours ago, Hodor the Articulate said:

That's even more nonsensical, since there's a whole host of characters that are said to be skilled horseriders, most notably, the Dothraki. If we take every mention of animals being associated with characters as a sign that they are skinchangers, we have half of Planetos with the ability to control animals. We can't have that, not when they're too busy all being secret Targs.

Nah, not just skilled. Notably skilled, notably fond of riding, in a society where they don't spend 24/7on horseback like the Dothraki. 

[40 Thousand Skeletons]

7 hours ago, Bael's Bastard said:

I don't see any indication that Rhaegar ever wanted or intended to set Elia aside, and I think there is zero chance that Rhaegar ever obtained approval to set Elia aside. If he married Lyanna then he was most likely married to two women at one time, and was still married to Elia when he returned to King's Landing before the Battle of the Trident.

Tywin was Rhaegar's most natural ally among the Great Houses, but that doesn't mean he would have supported him unconditionally. The post-Rebellion Targaryens and Martells were natural allies, but they still required a marriage pact. Even then, as the agreed upon marriage hasn't materialized, the sides appear to have done little or nothing to aid each other in the decade since.

Freeing Jaime from the KG would have been a start, but that would have just corrected a wrong that had been done to Tywin and House Lannister. Giving back something that was stolen in the first place. Tywin wanted Cersei to be Rhaegar's queen. I am open to the possibility that Tywin may have at one point been willing to marry Cersei to Viserys if he believed Elia would survive, or Rhaegar wouldn't remarry if she died.

But under no circumstances can I see Tywin going along with Rhaegar marrying again and it being anyone other than Cersei. That would be an insurmountable insult to Tywin, and would kill any plans they made together.

If Rhaegar went into the Harrenhal tourney to win houses to his cause, he did the opposite. He took the controversy off his father and put it squarely on himself. He alienated natural allies like the Lannisters and Martells, and he alienated those, like the Starks and Baratheons, he might have hoped to win to his cause. If anything, the Lyanna thing seems like Rhaegar completely abandoning, and sacrificing what remained of, his political plots.

The whole basis of my thinking around this is to question the assumption everyone makes that Rhaegar's actions should have alienated House Stark. Obviously we all think this because Brandon ends up going to KL and dies, yada yada. But normally, in most contexts, taking a woman from a powerful house to be your wife means you are forming an alliance with said house. So I thought to myself, wait, was Rhaegar actually trying to become allies with the Starks? Did a sneaky maester sabotage everything by giving a misleading message to Brandon that made him run off to die? That's kind of the main point I am making. Hypothetically, if Rhaegar offered to set aside Elia for Lyanna and name his children by Lyanna to be his heirs, Rickard should at least consider that deal. And a Rhaegar-Rickard-Hoster-Tywin alliance would then be achievable and potentially be able take the throne from Aerys.

[Hodor the Articulate]

6 hours ago, Ygrain said:

Well, that depends on a point of view. A Lord Paramount's "soiled" daughter would be useful for tying some vassal closer, but basically worthless for marriage among peers.

 

The same problem as above. For a Lord of the Stormlands, marrying into the Starks is not such a huge bonus, they are equals. Plus, it is not like the Starks seem to  hold that much prestige with the Southern houses.

Again, Lysa Tully and Jon Arryn says otherwise. Those who marry widows say otherwise.

House Stark has thousands of years of noble blood and they hold power over a vast area of land. The South may think northerners are uncultured, but it's not true that they don't hold prestige among southern house, or Hoster Tully wouldn't have married his eldest into House Stark. House Stark had only one daughter at that time. Anyone wanting connections to the North would have to marry Lyanna.

6 hours ago, Ygrain said:

Nah, not just skilled. Notably skilled, notably fond of riding, in a society where they don't spend 24/7on horseback like the Dothraki. 

Oh, so now the conditions are being skilled AND fond of horseriding, but don't spend their lives on horseback. I suppose that means Willas is out since he spends too much time with his animals? And Sansa is clearly not a skinchanger because she hates riding. Oh, and Dany obviously becomes a skinchager as she comes to love riding her horse - "the horse seemed to know her moods, as if they shared a single mind". But, of course, I forgot, she's a dragonrider, which is totally the same as being a skinchanger, right? Let me put this theory to Jon fans - I'm sure they'll be delighted to hear that Dany can also warg Ghost! Jon can r.i.p now.

[Ygrain]

5 hours ago, 40 Thousand Skeletons said:

The whole basis of my thinking around this is to question the assumption everyone makes that Rhaegar's actions should have alienated House Stark. Obviously we all think this because Brandon ends up going to KL and dies, yada yada. But normally, in most contexts, taking a woman from a powerful house to be your wife means you are forming an alliance with said house. So I thought to myself, wait, was Rhaegar actually trying to become allies with the Starks? Did a sneaky maester sabotage everything by giving a misleading message to Brandon that made him run off to die? That's kind of the main point I am making. Hypothetically, if Rhaegar offered to set aside Elia for Lyanna and name his children by Lyanna to be his heirs, Rickard should at least consider that deal. And a Rhaegar-Rickard-Hoster-Tywin alliance would then be achievable and potentially be able take the throne from Aerys.

He should consider the deal even if Rhaegar pulled the polygamy card - with the Targaryen incest, Lyanna's daughter could marry Aegon and thus Rickard's great grandchildren would sit the throne, without alienating House Martell at the same time.

3 hours ago, Hodor the Articulate said:

Again, Lysa Tully and Jon Arryn says otherwise. Those who marry widows say otherwise.

Did you somehow miss the fact that Jon Arryn needed Hoster's armies as well as an heir? It was made blatantly obvious that Hoster took advantage of both needs of Jon Arryn's, in another situation, for another man, Lysa would have been uneligible.

3 hours ago, Hodor the Articulate said:

House Stark has thousands of years of noble blood and they hold power over a vast area of land. The South may think northerners are uncultured, but it's not true that they don't hold prestige among southern house, or Hoster Tully wouldn't have married his eldest into House Stark. House Stark had only one daughter at that time. Anyone wanting connections to the North would have to marry Lyanna.

Anyone wanting connections with the North would offer their daughter for Ned. 

3 hours ago, Hodor the Articulate said:

Oh, so now the conditions are being skilled AND fond of horseriding, but don't spend their lives on horseback. I suppose that means Willas is out since he spends too much time with his animals? And Sansa is clearly not a skinchanger because she hates riding. Oh, and Dany obviously becomes a skinchager as she comes to love riding her horse - "the horse seemed to know her moods, as if they shared a single mind". But, of course, I forgot, she's a dragonrider, which is totally the same as being a skinchanger, right? Let me put this theory to Jon fans - I'm sure they'll be delighted to hear that Dany can also warg Ghost! Jon can r.i.p now.

I guess you are being intentionally obtuse here. Many people can become exceptional riders, but if an exceptional rider comes from the family with warging skills, one should at least consider the option. 

[Traverys]

1. Rhaegar can't simply set aside a wife and trueborn children without support from other sources... the king and the High Septon, being the most obvious. Marriage is a religious institution and even the Targaryens are, in the very least, nominally adherent to the Faith of the Seven. You also have to realize that even if he says they aren't his heirs, this won't stop them from pushing their claim to the throne in the future. History is written by the winners, and all they would need is an army to rewrite anything Rhaegar may have claimed or said at the time. You can guarantee that Dorne would press the claim of both the son and the daughter based on their succession laws.
2. Dorne was never conquered like all the other kingdoms, but brought into the fold by a marriage alliance. Keeping them appeased has always been politically important. How on earth would a Dornish rebellion be quashed if Targaryens with dragons couldn't force them to bend the knee? Not to mention that the Dornish have historically tended to not scruple on how they achieve their revenge, making them even further dangerous.
3. His intentions were to rally support to force his father to abdicate the throne peacefully at the tourney. But his suspicious father surprised them all by leaving the Red Keep (which he hadn't done since he was held prisoner during the Defiance of Duskendale) and attending. Making such a blatant political move in front of his already paranoid father imprudent, at best.
4. To further emphasize the political ramifications of his abduction (as, technically, she does not belong to herself as men do), Rhaegar provoked the ire of Houses Martell, Stark, and Baratheon through this act. Hardly the move of someone who is thinking rationally. House Arryn is also intimately tied with both Baratheon and Stark by friendship, and Tullies are tied to Starks by a marriage pact. If you want to also claim Rhaegar was politically inept throughout all of this, your theory may have some merit.
5. The most likely (and less convoluted) theory of what truly transpired is that Rhaegar was either enamored with Lyanna Stark or preoccupied with fulfilling a prophecy. How she felt about the whole situation is much more open to interpretation, though it's hard to believe a lady (even one as wild as Lyanna Stark) would willingly surrender her virtue and reputation for the vague promises of a prophecy.

[Rob Storm]

Brandon's response to Lyanna's abduction is very similar to Jaime's when he learns that Tyrion has been taken by Cat in AGOT.  They were both over-confident hotheads who had a fierce sense of protection to their family and made bad decisions.  Brandon lost his life and Jaime's departure from Kingslanding lost him a hand.  Brandon at the time was younger than Jaime is in asoiaf so I may give him more benefit of the doubt.  

Brandon and Jaime both truly cared about Lyanna and Tyrion respectively and possessed only one thought on how to fix the situation:  Immediate, undisciplined poorly thought out action. Both decisions had major impacts on their father's actions in the aftermath and in turn truly hurt their houses.   

[Hodor the Articulate]

1 hour ago, Ygrain said:

Did you somehow miss the fact that Jon Arryn needed Hoster's armies as well as an heir? It was made blatantly obvious that Hoster took advantage of both needs of Jon Arryn's, in another situation, for another man, Lysa would have been uneligible.

The context for whole discussion is during/after the rebellion, so it's not much different to the Lysa/Hoster situation. At that time, Robert needed the support of a Great House. Had Lyanna lived, his choices would have been her or Cersei. I mean, he could have chosen Cersei, but backing out of his original betrothal would be a huge insult to House Stark and his buddy, Ned. Neither Arryn or Tywin would have been so oblivious as to suggest such a thing.

Also, Arryn wasn't taken advantage of. He was looking for a wife with proven fertility. It was a mutually beneficial arrangement.

1 hour ago, Ygrain said:

Anyone wanting connections with the North would offer their daughter for Ned. 

Yeah, and those without eligible daughters would propose a marriage to Lyanna.

1 hour ago, Ygrain said:

I guess you are being intentionally obtuse here. Many people can become exceptional riders, but if an exceptional rider comes from the family with warging skills, one should at least consider the option. 

I'm not being obtuse, I'm pointing out the gaping holes in your theory, and challenging the it's underlying assumptions. Like the Stark family having warging skills - the only people who have shown such ability are Ned's kids.

I'm still waiting for an explanation as to why Ned and Benjen haven't said anything about two of their siblings having magical animal controlling powers. You'd think that'd be a big deal.

[Bael's Bastard]

16 hours ago, 40 Thousand Skeletons said:

The whole basis of my thinking around this is to question the assumption everyone makes that Rhaegar's actions should have alienated House Stark. Obviously we all think this because Brandon ends up going to KL and dies, yada yada. But normally, in most contexts, taking a woman from a powerful house to be your wife means you are forming an alliance with said house. So I thought to myself, wait, was Rhaegar actually trying to become allies with the Starks? Did a sneaky maester sabotage everything by giving a misleading message to Brandon that made him run off to die? That's kind of the main point I am making. Hypothetically, if Rhaegar offered to set aside Elia for Lyanna and name his children by Lyanna to be his heirs, Rickard should at least consider that deal. And a Rhaegar-Rickard-Hoster-Tywin alliance would then be achievable and potentially be able take the throne from Aerys.

Why would Rhaegar make such an offer? Why would Rickard accept such an offer? Politically, it makes no sense for either man to alienate existing allies and create new enemies in order to make a pretty weak alliance with each other. It is politically counterproductive.

I am not sure Rhaegar was too concerned with politics in the moment(s). I think his political hopes and dreams were pretty much crushed going into Harrenhal. And I don't see Rickard abandoning his well laid plots to rush into a dangerous alliance with Rhaegar that would be sure to turn three great houses and the king himself against House Stark. And for what gain? A son-in-law with no army, no throne, no other allies because he had betrayed them all, and could betray you just the same at any time?

If Rhaegar's original goal was to restrict Aerys with the help of the great houses, it shouldn't have taken much for him to secure Lannister and Martell support. From there he could have brought other great houses into the mix without alienating his existing allies. Instead, his actions at the Harrenhal tourney and after alienated the Martells who were already wed to him, and the Lannisters who desperately wished to be wed to him, and did not gain him any support from the Starks.

Rickard's only daughter was already betrothed to Lord Baratheon, whose father's mother was a Targaryen. He had put his children in position to produce descendants worthy of marrying into the Targaryen royal line. He had betrothed his daughter to the non-Targaryen house perhaps most likely to marry in with the Targaryens. I don't see Rickard being on board with breaking that betrothal even if it meant immediately marrying Lyanna to Rhaegar or even Viserys.

A Rhaegar-Rickard-Hoster-Tywin alliance would never be achievable if it included Rhaegar taking another wife and it being anyone other than Cersei. There is no way Tywin would be on board with Rhaegar marrying Lyanna. If anything, I think we are likely to find out that Rhaegar's QOLAB and later actions with Lyanna killed any alliance or plans Tywin and Rhaegar might have had.

[JNR]

9 hours ago, Hodor the Articulate said:

I'm still waiting for an explanation as to why Ned and Benjen haven't said anything about two of their siblings having magical animal controlling powers. You'd think that'd be a big deal.

Ah, well, you'll never get that explanation.   

You see, the important thing for some folks is to prop up Lyanna as the magical eighth-grade skinchanging horseriding wonder, who was also a devastating master-at-arms, who was also obviously the KotLT (combining the skinchanging horseriding aspect and the weapons mastery, you see).  

She was not into Ser Justin of House Bieber, like other girls her age.  She leaped tall buildings in a single bound and ate broken glass for fun, and skinchanging horses was but a trifle.

[WSmith84]

13 hours ago, Ygrain said:

He should consider the deal even if Rhaegar pulled the polygamy card - with the Targaryen incest, Lyanna's daughter could marry Aegon and thus Rickard's great grandchildren would sit the throne, without alienating House Martell at the same time.

That assumes Rickard is OK with his family practicing incest. And that he is OK with destroying Ned's relationship with his best friend. And risking the relationship the Starks have built up with Jon Arryn. And dishonouring the Stark name. And pissing off Tywin. Feasible, I suppose, but it seems unlikely, in my opinion.

Plus, Tywin offers so much more as an ally than Rickard. He has a larger army, more money, his army is better placed and Tywin has many people in King's Landing who respect him. If Rhaegar passes over Cersei (again) there's a very good chance that Tywin would side with Aerys in the event of a Rhaegar-Aerys conflict (particularly if new heir Viserys was offered to Cersei). There's just no good reason to pick Lyanna over Cersei, unless Rhaegar was prophetic enough to know what a harpy Cersei would be.

[40 Thousand Skeletons]

12 hours ago, Traverys said:

1. Rhaegar can't simply set aside a wife and trueborn children without support from other sources... the king and the High Septon, being the most obvious. Marriage is a religious institution and even the Targaryens are, in the very least, nominally adherent to the Faith of the Seven. You also have to realize that even if he says they aren't his heirs, this won't stop them from pushing their claim to the throne in the future. History is written by the winners, and all they would need is an army to rewrite anything Rhaegar may have claimed or said at the time. You can guarantee that Dorne would press the claim of both the son and the daughter based on their succession laws.
2. Dorne was never conquered like all the other kingdoms, but brought into the fold by a marriage alliance. Keeping them appeased has always been politically important. How on earth would a Dornish rebellion be quashed if Targaryens with dragons couldn't force them to bend the knee? Not to mention that the Dornish have historically tended to not scruple on how they achieve their revenge, making them even further dangerous.
3. His intentions were to rally support to force his father to abdicate the throne peacefully at the tourney. But his suspicious father surprised them all by leaving the Red Keep (which he hadn't done since he was held prisoner during the Defiance of Duskendale) and attending. Making such a blatant political move in front of his already paranoid father imprudent, at best.
4. To further emphasize the political ramifications of his abduction (as, technically, she does not belong to herself as men do), Rhaegar provoked the ire of Houses Martell, Stark, and Baratheon through this act. Hardly the move of someone who is thinking rationally. House Arryn is also intimately tied with both Baratheon and Stark by friendship, and Tullies are tied to Starks by a marriage pact. If you want to also claim Rhaegar was politically inept throughout all of this, your theory may have some merit.
5. The most likely (and less convoluted) theory of what truly transpired is that Rhaegar was either enamored with Lyanna Stark or preoccupied with fulfilling a prophecy. How she felt about the whole situation is much more open to interpretation, though it's hard to believe a lady (even one as wild as Lyanna Stark) would willingly surrender her virtue and reputation for the vague promises of a prophecy.

1. He wouldn't technically need the High Septon if he married Lyanna via Old Gods instead of the Seven. And he doesn't need permission from Aerys if he is claiming the throne for himself. And yes, the Dornish certainly may push the claims of Rhaenys and Aegon, but they lack a large army to back up said claims.

2. Dorne does not have a large army. If Dorne rebels and secedes, who cares? Especially if Rhaegar thinks the Long Night 2.0 is coming. It's not like the Dornish have enough soldiers to actively invade the other kingdoms. That would be very different from defending their own desert with guerilla warfare.

3. Yes, Aerys coming to KL threw a wrench into Rhaegar's plan. But he did make a blatant political move in front of his paranoid father. He crowned Lyanna.

4. Again, my point is that this move should not have necessarily alienated House Stark. If anything, it looks like Rhaegar was trying to form an alliance through Lyanna.

5. Yes I think Rhaegar was primarily concerned with fulfilling prophecy, but fulfilling the prophecy likely required having a child/children with a woman with the right genes, that is some form of dragon-riding or skinchanging genes. There are not a lot of fertile ladies with such genes running around Westeros, so the realization that Lyanna was a skinchanger basically forced Rhaegar to try to have children with her. But at the same time, I think he was also trying to maintain the stability of the kingdom and take power from his father. Rhaegar may have correctly anticipated that the end of the Targaryen dynasty would also involve the deaths of Rhaegar's children. And Aerys staying in power was basically a ticking time bomb.

[40 Thousand Skeletons]

3 hours ago, Bael's Bastard said:

Why would Rhaegar make such an offer? Why would Rickard accept such an offer? Politically, it makes no sense for either man to alienate existing allies and create new enemies in order to make a pretty weak alliance with each other. It is politically counterproductive.

I am not sure Rhaegar was too concerned with politics in the moment(s). I think his political hopes and dreams were pretty much crushed going into Harrenhal. And I don't see Rickard abandoning his well laid plots to rush into a dangerous alliance with Rhaegar that would be sure to turn three great houses and the king himself against House Stark. And for what gain? A son-in-law with no army, no throne, no other allies because he had betrayed them all, and could betray you just the same at any time?

If Rhaegar's original goal was to restrict Aerys with the help of the great houses, it shouldn't have taken much for him to secure Lannister and Martell support. From there he could have brought other great houses into the mix without alienating his existing allies. Instead, his actions at the Harrenhal tourney and after alienated the Martells who were already wed to him, and the Lannisters who desperately wished to be wed to him, and did not gain him any support from the Starks.

Rickard's only daughter was already betrothed to Lord Baratheon, whose father's mother was a Targaryen. He had put his children in position to produce descendants worthy of marrying into the Targaryen royal line. He had betrothed his daughter to the non-Targaryen house perhaps most likely to marry in with the Targaryens. I don't see Rickard being on board with breaking that betrothal even if it meant immediately marrying Lyanna to Rhaegar or even Viserys.

A Rhaegar-Rickard-Hoster-Tywin alliance would never be achievable if it included Rhaegar taking another wife and it being anyone other than Cersei. There is no way Tywin would be on board with Rhaegar marrying Lyanna. If anything, I think we are likely to find out that Rhaegar's QOLAB and later actions with Lyanna killed any alliance or plans Tywin and Rhaegar might have had.

Rhaegar would make such an offer to form a strong military alliance. Rickard would accept so that Lyanna could be Queen, and because they would have forced his hand by having a child. I stated in the OP that Rickard probably wouldn't have been on board with the plan, and that was the whole reason for the "kidnapping". A Rhaegar-Stark-Tully alliance with potentially Jon Arryn and Tywin joining them could be quite strong. Yes, Rhaegar's plans were ruined by Aerys coming to Harrenhal, and I am trying to explain what his new plan was.

I totally disagree with this notion people have that Rhaegar would have to marry Cersei to get Tywin as an ally. Did you guys read TWOIAF? Tywin hated Aerys. He was perfectly willing to storm Duskendale, effectively killing Aerys, to make Rhaegar king, and that was without a Cersei marriage. Recall that Aerys was the one who refused to marry Cersei to Rhaegar in the first place. Why in the world would Tywin ever side with Aerys over Rhaegar? The only way I could see it happening would be if Aerys agreed to marry Cersei to Viserys, but I don't think Tywin would go for that plan seeing as how that marriage wouldn't happen for years, and Aerys was crazy, and Tywin hated Aerys.

[40 Thousand Skeletons]

12 hours ago, Hodor the Articulate said:

The context for whole discussion is during/after the rebellion, so it's not much different to the Lysa/Hoster situation. At that time, Robert needed the support of a Great House. Had Lyanna lived, his choices would have been her or Cersei. I mean, he could have chosen Cersei, but backing out of his original betrothal would be a huge insult to House Stark and his buddy, Ned. Neither Arryn or Tywin would have been so oblivious as to suggest such a thing.

Also, Arryn wasn't taken advantage of. He was looking for a wife with proven fertility. It was a mutually beneficial arrangement.

Yeah, and those without eligible daughters would propose a marriage to Lyanna.

I'm not being obtuse, I'm pointing out the gaping holes in your theory, and challenging the it's underlying assumptions. Like the Stark family having warging skills - the only people who have shown such ability are Ned's kids.

I'm still waiting for an explanation as to why Ned and Benjen haven't said anything about two of their siblings having magical animal controlling powers. You'd think that'd be a big deal.

Actually, I'm pretty sure Jon is not Ned's kid . I don't actually subscribe to R+L=J, but assuming you do, do you really think it is such a big leap in logic to think that because Jon is warg, his mother may have had the same power? Lyanna and Brandon are extremely closely related to the Stark kids, so we should consider the possibility that they had similar genetic abilities.

Ned and Benjen, and even Lyanna and Brandon themselves, were likely not aware of their siblings' magical animal powers. Jon, for example, denies his own powers for a long time after they start to affect him.