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Rhaegar wasn't polygamous, he was dumping Elia for Lyanna


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2 hours ago, JNR said:

Ah, well, you'll never get that explanation.  :thumbsup: 

You see, the important thing for some folks is to prop up Lyanna as the magical eighth-grade skinchanging horseriding wonder, who was also a devastating master-at-arms, who was also obviously the KotLT (combining the skinchanging horseriding aspect and the weapons mastery, you see).  

She was not into Ser Justin of House Bieber, like other girls her age.  She leaped tall buildings in a single bound and ate broken glass for fun, and skinchanging horses was but a trifle.

Why is it so far-fetched to think Lyanna, a Stark, may have been a skinchanger? That, in fact, would explain how she was such a good jouster and able to be the KotLT in the first place.

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3 minutes ago, 40 Thousand Skeletons said:

I totally disagree with this notion people have that Rhaegar would have to marry Cersei to get Tywin as an ally. Did you guys read TWOIAF? Tywin hated Aerys. He was perfectly willing to storm Duskendale, effectively killing Aerys, to make Rhaegar king, and that was without a Cersei marriage. Recall that Aerys was the one who refused to marry Cersei to Rhaegar in the first place. Why in the world would Tywin ever side with Aerys over Rhaegar? The only way I could see it happening would be if Aerys agreed to marry Cersei to Viserys, but I don't think Tywin would go for that plan seeing as how that marriage wouldn't happen for years, and Aerys was crazy, and Tywin hated Aerys.

Well, what does Tywin get out of siding with Rhaegar? A chance for revenge, I suppose (and boy does Tywin love some revenge). Both Rhaegar and Aerys can offer Jaime's release from the Kingsguard. Aerys can offer a marriage to Viserys. Rhaegar marrying Lyanna would mean, once again, that House Lannister is snubbed in favour of a lesser house (from Tywin's PoV). Tywin hates Aerys. Basically, the question comes down to this: does Tywin's thirst for revenge outweigh his ambition?

Personally, I think that Tywin would side with Aerys if offered Viserys.

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1 minute ago, WSmith84 said:

Well, what does Tywin get out of siding with Rhaegar? A chance for revenge, I suppose (and boy does Tywin love some revenge). Both Rhaegar and Aerys can offer Jaime's release from the Kingsguard. Aerys can offer a marriage to Viserys. Rhaegar marrying Lyanna would mean, once again, that House Lannister is snubbed in favour of a lesser house (from Tywin's PoV). Tywin hates Aerys. Basically, the question comes down to this: does Tywin's thirst for revenge outweigh his ambition?

Personally, I think that Tywin would side with Aerys if offered Viserys.

Tywin would side with Rhaegar to be on the winning side. Marrying not-Cersei is not equivalent to "snubbing Tywin". It's not about revenge, it's about being on the winning side. And if he was the "swing army", he would pick Rhaegar because Aerys was insane and Tywin hated him.

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1 minute ago, 40 Thousand Skeletons said:

Tywin would side with Rhaegar to be on the winning side. Marrying not-Cersei is not equivalent to "snubbing Tywin". It's not about revenge, it's about being on the winning side. And if he was the "swing army", he would pick Rhaegar because Aerys was insane and Tywin hated him.

Tywin definitely saw Elia Martell as Rhaegar's bride as a snub. Why wouldn't he feel the same about Lyanna?

Let's take a look at the sides here. Rhaegar's camp would appear to be as follows (assuming he marries Lyanna):

The North

The Riverlands

(Maybe) the Vale

On Aerys' side we have:

The Stormlands

The Crownlands

Leftover, we have:

Dorne

The Reach

The Iron Islands

The Westerlands

The Reach and the Westerlands are the two most powerful, most wealthy regions and Rhaegar is guaranteed neither. The Iron Islands are a loose cannon and Dorne is not likely to help either side. While Rhaegar has the stronger lineup, it's hardly a definite win. It's extremely close. Tywin (and the Tyrells) can swing this war to whichever team they favour. In my opinion, Tywin would put aside his hatred for Aerys if it meant Cersei could be Queen and his grandson King.

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27 minutes ago, WSmith84 said:

Tywin definitely saw Elia Martell as Rhaegar's bride as a snub. Why wouldn't he feel the same about Lyanna?

Let's take a look at the sides here. Rhaegar's camp would appear to be as follows (assuming he marries Lyanna):

The North

The Riverlands

(Maybe) the Vale

On Aerys' side we have:

The Stormlands

The Crownlands

Leftover, we have:

Dorne

The Reach

The Iron Islands

The Westerlands

The Reach and the Westerlands are the two most powerful, most wealthy regions and Rhaegar is guaranteed neither. The Iron Islands are a loose cannon and Dorne is not likely to help either side. While Rhaegar has the stronger lineup, it's hardly a definite win. It's extremely close. Tywin (and the Tyrells) can swing this war to whichever team they favour. In my opinion, Tywin would put aside his hatred for Aerys if it meant Cersei could be Queen and his grandson King.

Because Tywin asked Aerys to accept Cersei as Rhaegar's bride and Aerys snubbed him. Specifically, Aerys said:

"You are my most able servant, Tywin, but a man does not marry his heir to his servant's daughter."

That was the snub. Rhaegar marrying Lyanna is not a snub, because Tywin did not ask Rhaegar to set aside Elia for Cersei or anything like that. Rhaegar would not be denying Tywin any request. If Tywin can hypothetically pick the winner, I have little doubt he would choose Rhaegar over the insane, hated Aerys. Obviously, that's a key point we disagree on.

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On 4/14/2017 at 9:01 PM, 40 Thousand Skeletons said:

If he is King he can do whatever the fuck he wants.

1) Rhaegar was not King.

2) The entire Rebellion kind of puts a damper on this perspective that the King does as he pleases, doesn't it?

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9 minutes ago, 40 Thousand Skeletons said:

Rhaegar would make such an offer to form a strong military alliance. Rickard would accept so that Lyanna could be Queen, and because they would have forced his hand by having a child. I stated in the OP that Rickard probably wouldn't have been on board with the plan, and that was the whole reason for the "kidnapping". A Rhaegar-Stark-Tully alliance with potentially Jon Arryn and Tywin joining them could be quite strong. Yes, Rhaegar's plans were ruined by Aerys coming to Harrenhal, and I am trying to explain what his new plan was.

I totally disagree with this notion people have that Rhaegar would have to marry Cersei to get Tywin as an ally. Did you guys read TWOIAF? Tywin hated Aerys. He was perfectly willing to storm Duskendale, effectively killing Aerys, to make Rhaegar king, and that was without a Cersei marriage. Recall that Aerys was the one who refused to marry Cersei to Rhaegar in the first place. Why in the world would Tywin ever side with Aerys over Rhaegar? The only way I could see it happening would be if Aerys agreed to marry Cersei to Viserys, but I don't think Tywin would go for that plan seeing as how that marriage wouldn't happen for years, and Aerys was crazy, and Tywin hated Aerys.

I never suggested that Rhaegar would have to marry Cersei to get Tywin as an ally. Your hypothetical involves Rhaegar marrying Lyanna and still being able to count on Tywin being on his side, which is inconceivable. Tywin might be able to accept Rhaegar not being able to marry Cersei because of his existing marriage, but there's no chance in hell he would be able to accept and support Rhaegar after marrying yet another woman who is not Cersei. Aerys is the one who passed over Cersei when he married Rhaegar to Elia. But this would be Rhaegar himself passing over Cersei to marry Lyanna. Tywin would probably feel pretty good about ridding himself of the whole family at that point.

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7 minutes ago, Jasta11 said:

1) Rhaegar was not King.

2) The entire Rebellion kind of puts a damper on this perspective that the King does as he pleases, doesn't it?

As I said earlier, I was talking about divorcing Elia. And the entire point is that Rhaegar was trying to take the throne from Aerys, which would make him king. Obviously if a king acts insane, rebellions will happen.

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2 hours ago, WSmith84 said:

That assumes Rickard is OK with his family practicing incest. And that he is OK with destroying Ned's relationship with his best friend. And risking the relationship the Starks have built up with Jon Arryn. And dishonouring the Stark name. And pissing off Tywin. Feasible, I suppose, but it seems unlikely, in my opinion.

Well, that depends on how far Rickard's southron ambitions would go. It's not like we haven't seen people becoming very ruthless and sacrificing moral principles for the sake of an ugly iron chair... I wonder if Ned's fondness of Jon Arryn and zero thought spent on his own father might mean a thing.

2 hours ago, WSmith84 said:

Plus, Tywin offers so much more as an ally than Rickard. He has a larger army, more money, his army is better placed and Tywin has many people in King's Landing who respect him. If Rhaegar passes over Cersei (again) there's a very good chance that Tywin would side with Aerys in the event of a Rhaegar-Aerys conflict (particularly if new heir Viserys was offered to Cersei). There's just no good reason to pick Lyanna over Cersei, unless Rhaegar was prophetic enough to know what a harpy Cersei would be.

Ssssh... love.... ssssh :-)

1 hour ago, 40 Thousand Skeletons said:

Actually, I'm pretty sure Jon is not Ned's kid ;). I don't actually subscribe to R+L=J, but assuming you do, do you really think it is such a big leap in logic to think that because Jon is warg, his mother may have had the same power? Lyanna and Brandon are extremely closely related to the Stark kids, so we should consider the possibility that they had similar genetic abilities.

Ned and Benjen, and even Lyanna and Brandon themselves, were likely not aware of their siblings' magical animal powers. Jon, for example, denies his own powers for a long time after they start to affect him.

What you said :-)

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6 minutes ago, Bael's Bastard said:

I never suggested that Rhaegar would have to marry Cersei to get Tywin as an ally. Your hypothetical involves Rhaegar marrying Lyanna and still being able to count on Tywin being on his side, which is inconceivable. Tywin might be able to accept Rhaegar not being able to marry Cersei because of his existing marriage, but there's no chance in hell he would be able to accept and support Rhaegar after marrying yet another woman who is not Cersei. Aerys is the one who passed over Cersei when he married Rhaegar to Elia. But this would be Rhaegar himself passing over Cersei to marry Lyanna. Tywin would probably feel pretty good about ridding himself of the whole family at that point.

But Aerys didn't "pass over" Cersei. He rejected Cersei. Rhaegar, in this hypothetical situation, would not have rejected Cersei, because Tywin never asked Rhaegar to marry Cersei. And Tywin might feel good about "ridding himself of the whole family" but that wouldn't have been an option in this scenario. He would have had to pick between Aerys or Rhaegar or stupidly staying neutral.

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20 minutes ago, 40 Thousand Skeletons said:

As I said earlier, I was talking about divorcing Elia. And the entire point is that Rhaegar was trying to take the throne from Aerys, which would make him king. Obviously if a king acts insane, rebellions will happen.

Who's going to support his bid to overthrow Aerys? First, Rhaegar won't marry any noble-born lady, being already taken, so that's already a vital bargaining chip he throws into the garbage bin. The Martells are right out for obvious reasons. Tywin doesn't gain anything apart from getting back at Aerys (which is tempting for him, but not enough to spur him into action for sure, as we saw how late he joins the bandwagon in the Rebellion). The Tyrells do nothing without adequate compensation, and Rhaegar cannot offer much. The Tullys are loyalists so they could go either way, but will likely back up the legimimate King. The Vale is an unknown, but like the Tyrells will want something in return. The North might support Rhaegar, and that's not guaranteed.

So one region might support one, one definitely won't, another is highly unlikely to to, and the rest will require either a damn good reason, or something in return. Rhaegar has none of these things on hand. So any contestation of Aerys's authority is going to be extremely hazardous and unlikely to even get off the ground.

And even if it does get off the ground, Ray-Man is highly, highly likely to cause a civil war. Because he loves/ thinks he needs to impregnate a 15 years old girl. That supposed to make me feel better about the guy?

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6 minutes ago, Jasta11 said:

Who's going to support his bid to overthrow Aerys? First, Rhaegar won't marry any noble-born lady, being already taken, so that's already a vital bargaining chip he throws into the garbage bin. The Martells are right out for obvious reasons. Tywin doesn't gain anything apart from getting back at Aerys (which is tempting for him, but not enough to spur him into action for sure, as we saw how late he joins the bandwagon in the Rebellion). The Tyrells do nothing without adequate compensation, and Rhaegar cannot offer much. The Tullys are loyalists so they could go either way, but will likely back up the legimimate King. The Vale is an unknown, but like the Tyrells will want something in return. The North might support Rhaegar, and that's not guaranteed.

So one region might support one, one definitely won't, another is highly likely to to, and the rest will require either a damn good reason, or something in return. Rhaegar has none of these things on hand. So any contestation of Aerys's authority is going to be extremely hazardous and unlikely to even get off the ground.

And even if it does get off the ground, Ray-Man is highly, highly likely to cause a civil war. Because he loves/ thinks he needs to impregnate a 15 years old girl. That supposed to make me feel better about the guy?

Brandon still would have married Cat, and Lysa could have still married Jon Arryn. With Rhaegar married to Lyanna, this gives them a Rhaegar-Rickard-Hoster-Jon alliance to start. I think Tywin would almost definitely back Rhaegar over Aerys due to his hatred of Aerys, and that might be enough to win right there. The Reach may side with them just to be on the winning side.

Um.. No? This is not supposed to make you feel better about Rhaegar? I'm not arguing Rhaegar was being a good guy. I am just arguing that the "abduction" of Lyanna may not have been as politically suicidal as people think.

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3 minutes ago, Ygrain said:

Well, that depends on how far Rickard's southron ambitions would go. It's not like we haven't seen people becoming very ruthless and sacrificing moral principles for the sake of an ugly iron chair... I wonder if Ned's fondness of Jon Arryn and zero thought spent on his own father might mean a thing.

Quite. It's possible that Rickard's ambition might outweigh all else, there's no denying it. It's also possible that he cared so much about Lyanna's feelings that he was prepared to sacrifice plenty so she could marry the man she loved (I find this option... unlikely, to say the least). I'm just not convinced that Rickad would be prepared to risk so much all for the chance that his great-grandchildren would one day sit the throne. That's not guaranteed either; if Aegon is anything like his father, he might marry someone other than his half-sister.

I think Ned's experience of arranged marriages soured him on the whole enterprise, giving him very mixed feelings about his father (and Brandon) and explaining his own children's lack of betrothals. Jon Arryn, on the other hand, must have appeared to be an almost flawless figure of virtue to Ned. Not to mention that it seems Ned probably spent more time with Jon than with Rickard.

15 minutes ago, Ygrain said:

Ssssh... love.... ssssh :-)

Sure. And I do think Rhaegar and Lyanna fell in love at some point. But that doesn't not make Lyanna a political disaster and it doesn't not make Cersei a clearly better choice. And, is it just me, or does that not undermine somewhat the idea of 'love is the death of duty' if, actually, everybody was totes on board with Rhaegar getting himself a new bride until silly old Brandon messed it up?

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1 hour ago, 40 Thousand Skeletons said:

Why is it so far-fetched to think Lyanna, a Stark, may have been a skinchanger? That, in fact, would explain how she was such a good jouster and able to be the KotLT in the first place.

It's circular reasoning.  She isn't established as a good jouster or as the KotLT, so there's no reason to explain those concepts.

Very similarly, we might say:

Half of Howland's kids have magic powers.  Where did Jojen get his magic powers? 

Perhaps from his dad... who we're told spent an entire winter with the green men on the Isle of Faces, because although he could already "talk to trees," he wanted "more magic." 

Gee, doesn't talking to trees sound familiar, given Bran's storyline in ADWD?  What is it green men do on the Isle of Faces, again?  Isn't it... guarding weirwoods?  And what was the KotLT's sigil?  And what did Howland do, the night before the KotLT appeared?  Didn't he pray in the direction of the Isle? 

Therefore, skinchanging is how we explain how Howland was such a good jouster and able to be the KotLT in the first place. 

But, despite all this circumstantial evidence, it's not established Howland was the knight or a good jouster, just as it isn't for Lyanna.

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1 minute ago, 40 Thousand Skeletons said:

But Aerys didn't "pass over" Cersei. He rejected Cersei. Rhaegar, in this hypothetical situation, would not have rejected Cersei, because Tywin never asked Rhaegar to marry Cersei. And Tywin might feel good about "ridding himself of the whole family" but that wouldn't have been an option in this scenario. He would have had to pick between Aerys or Rhaegar or stupidly staying neutral.

I think you are making an arbitrary distinction between "pass over" and "rejected" in this case. Tywin promised Cersei when she was six or seven year old that she would marry Rhaegar. According to Jaime, Tywin brought Cersei to court when she was twelve in hopes of making a royal marriage, either waiting for Viserys to mature, or for Elia to die. Tywin could not blame Rhaegar for marrying Elia at the command of his father, but I think there is no way Tywin would support Rhaegar after he chose to marry again and still didn't marry Cersei. It is a slight to both the Lannisters and Martells no matter how you slice it.

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12 minutes ago, 40 Thousand Skeletons said:

Brandon still would have married Cat, and Lysa could have still married Jon Arryn. With Rhaegar married to Lyanna, this gives them a Rhaegar-Rickard-Hoster-Jon alliance to start. I think Tywin would almost definitely back Rhaegar over Aerys due to his hatred of Aerys, and that might be enough to win right there. The Reach may side with them just to be on the winning side.

Jon only married Lysa, a 'soiled woman', because he needed Hoster's swords to help save Ned and Robert's lives. Unless Cat's realisation is a complete fake-out (in which case, what's the point) then it's pretty clear that Jon entered the marriage unwillingly. In fact, Jon had two heirs at this point (both alive and healthy). And I can't see what Jon gets out of joining Rhaegar in overthrowing Aerys, to be honest. He would be almost guaranteed to have to fight against Robert, a man he loves like a son.

Again, I'm not convinced that Tywin's hatred for Aerys outweighs his desire for a grandchild as King. I think Tywin would weigh up the offers on both sides and choose whatever he felt was best. I suspect the Tyrells would be naturally loyalist and definitely so if Tywin joined Aerys. That army is already formidable. Add in the Stormlands (who are never going to back Rhaegar) and the Crownlands and suddenly Rhaegar's alliance isn't looking so hot.

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16 minutes ago, 40 Thousand Skeletons said:

Brandon still would have married Cat, and Lysa could have still married Jon Arryn. With Rhaegar married to Lyanna, this gives them a Rhaegar-Rickard-Hoster-Jon alliance to start. I think Tywin would almost definitely back Rhaegar over Aerys due to his hatred of Aerys, and that might be enough to win right there. The Reach may side with them just to be on the winning side.

Um.. No? This is not supposed to make you feel better about Rhaegar? I'm not arguing Rhaegar was being a good guy. I am just arguing that the "abduction" of Lyanna may not have been as politically suicidal as people think.

This assumes Rickard goes through with allying with Rhaegar. And assumes Hoster and Jon still want a piece of this extremely risky alliance, without the incentive of ''the King really is bonkers and is executing his Lords''. And even IF that happens (which, I stress, is a big if) you're still left with a weaker alliance than Robert and Ned had, with one more enemy since the Martells are far more likely to fight against the one that wants to depose Elia. So the only course of action is, again, civil war, one that's even riskier than Robert's and has no further foundation than ''I want to bang this girl, oh and my dad is kind of unhinged sometimes''. And neither Tywin nor the Reach backed Robert during most of the Rebellion, when the rebels had a bigger chance to win than Rhagar does.

To say nothing of the fact Aerys has Rhaegar's family. So unless James Targaryan 007 manages to save them from under Aerys's nose, Ray-Man is putting even more at risk with open defiance, unless one assumes he's callous enough to just throw away their lives which seems very unlikely to me.

If that is Rhaegar's plan, it's a pretty shitty plan if you ask me. So yeah, it is close to a political suicide. So his idea is still stupid. His only hope at a coup is a quiet one, and that hope vanished after Harrenhall if it was ever there.

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10 minutes ago, Jasta11 said:

This assumes Rickard goes through with allying with Rhaegar. And assumes Hoster and Jon still want a piece of this extremely risky alliance, without the incentive of ''the King really is bonkers and is executing his Lords''. And even IF that happens (which, I stress, is a big if) you're still left with a weaker alliance than Robert and Ned had, with one more enemy since the Martells are far more likely to fight against the one that wants to depose Elia. So the only course of action is, again, civil war, one that's even riskier than Robert's and has no further foundation than ''I want to bang this girl, oh and my dad is kind of unhinged sometimes''. And neither Tywin nor the Reach backed Robert during most of the Rebellion, when the rebels had a bigger chance to win than Rhagar does.

To say nothing of the fact Aerys has Rhaegar's family. So unless James Targaryan 007 manages to save them from under Aerys's nose, Ray-Man is putting even more at risk with open defiance, unless one assumes he's callous enough to just throw away their lives which seems very unlikely to me.

If that is Rhaegar's plan, it's a pretty shitty plan if you ask me. So yeah, it is close to a political suicide. So his idea is still stupid. His only hope at a coup is a quiet one, and that hope vanished after Harrenhall if it was ever there.

But they did still have the incentive of "the King is really bonkers" even if he wasn't executing lords yet. Is it a shitty, ad-hoc plan? Sure. But it is not without hope of success. Again, I still think Rhaegar's primary motivation was to create prophecy-fulfilling babies, but his political play with Lyanna also could have worked in my opinion, even though crowning and later abducting Lyanna was certainly not the best move.

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25 minutes ago, WSmith84 said:

Jon only married Lysa, a 'soiled woman', because he needed Hoster's swords to help save Ned and Robert's lives. Unless Cat's realisation is a complete fake-out (in which case, what's the point) then it's pretty clear that Jon entered the marriage unwillingly. In fact, Jon had two heirs at this point (both alive and healthy). And I can't see what Jon gets out of joining Rhaegar in overthrowing Aerys, to be honest. He would be almost guaranteed to have to fight against Robert, a man he loves like a son.

Again, I'm not convinced that Tywin's hatred for Aerys outweighs his desire for a grandchild as King. I think Tywin would weigh up the offers on both sides and choose whatever he felt was best. I suspect the Tyrells would be naturally loyalist and definitely so if Tywin joined Aerys. That army is already formidable. Add in the Stormlands (who are never going to back Rhaegar) and the Crownlands and suddenly Rhaegar's alliance isn't looking so hot.

Frankly, I think the loyalist factions would not have been so loyal to Aerys in a Rhaegar coup. Aerys was going insane, and everyone knew it after Harrenhal. I always assumed the loyalist houses took comfort in the fact that Rhaegar was a capable leader and could eventually take over from Aerys should Aerys descend even further into madness.

Good points about Jon Arryn though.

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6 minutes ago, 40 Thousand Skeletons said:

But they did still have the incentive of "the King is really bonkers" even if he wasn't executing lords yet. Is it a shitty, ad-hoc plan? Sure. But it is not without hope of success. Again, I still think Rhaegar's primary motivation was to create prophecy-fulfilling babies, but his political play with Lyanna also could have worked in my opinion, even though crowning and later abducting Lyanna was certainly not the best move.

What proof does Rhaegar have? That Aerys acted unhinged a few times? That's hardly enough to make the great Lords reach for their swords. If the apparent extent of Aerys's madness is being unkempt and having an attitude, no one is going to lift a finger to stop him. They were spurred into action because the King killed a Lord and called for the heads of two others; no one is going to care if he has odd habits. 

So Rhaegar's only argument becomes ''I want to bang this girl''. Which is not going to impress anyone but (maybe, possibly, not even sure) Rickard. And casts serious doubts as to how reliable an ally and how good of a King Rhaegar will be, if he's willing to toss aside his marriage and plunge the realm into civil war for little apparent reasons beyond lust for a 15 years old.

The more I think about it, the more I think this is a Cercei-tier bad plan.

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