andy_wan_kenobi

The Child of Rheagar and Lyanna

243 posts in this topic

Just now, 40 Thousand Skeletons said:

LOL well... Cat's perspective is probably the most relevant when it comes to questions of Jon being a threat to the Tully alliance

But rob is a lot more like Ned... who we are talking about...

besides the fact that Cat's judgement is horrendous

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7 minutes ago, 40 Thousand Skeletons said:

I'll concede this is probably the strongest point against the possibility of Ned hiding Jon's parentage due to the threat to the Tully alliance. That said, there is no way Ned is totally ignorant about the Blackfyre rebellions. Bastards may not have a claim, but legitimized bastards certainly do. He may have been assuming in his head that Robert would never legitimize his bastards in the manner of Aegon IV, but it's hard to say for sure what Ned thought about Jon.

I'm not sure I understand. Are you saying that Ned was worried that Robert would legitimise Jon? Or that Ned had some plan to legitimise Jon?

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4 hours ago, SFDanny said:

With all due respect, it is absurd to assume dates to fit your theory instead of build a theory around dates, events - in short to manufacture evidence to fit a preexisting theory. You want Brandon to be Jon's father, so you assume the latest date of his life is the day Jon is conceived. Never mind, there is no evidence to support this conclusion. You want it to work so you set all the parameters to enable it to be possible. Look again at what you assume. Brandon is held prisoner in the Red Keep, but somehow you assume that somehow Ashara, who just happens to be in King's Landing, gets Varys or the other jailers to allow Brandon a conjugal visit from an old girlfriend. Is there any evidence this happened? No. No, there isn't.

In fact, it is likely that Ashara is dismissed from court by this time. Lady companions of a royal princess who are disgraced at Harrenhal aren't likely to stay in service to Elia. If Ashara is pregnant from Harrenhal, that puts the birth of her child, who Selmy tells us is a stillborn girl, in the seventh or eighth month of 282, not in the period of 283 that you theorize for Jon's birth. That evidence is inconvenient to your theory, so it is ignored.

And so it goes with this idea. You cherry pick dates and evidence to enable it to be remotely possible. Instead of accepting the "nine moons" after the flight to Dragonstone as Daenerys's birth, you invent an entirely new child to take her place, because Dany's name date is inconvenient to your theory. Never mind the abundant evidence that Dany is just who she says she is. This defines crackpot.

You have not shown me "all due respect". You are kind of being a dick. I did not start this thread, and I never had any intention to fully detail an entire in depth argument for R+L=D and B+A=J. I am not "cherry picking dates and evidence" to fit my theory or ignoring things that are "inconvenient". I believed R+L=J for a long time. My mind was changed by the fucking evidence. You are welcome to disagree with my conclusions, and I wouldn't bother posting on this forum at all if everyone agreed with me about everything. But please do not insult me by assuming that I have some sort of irrational emotional desire to be right about a crackpot theory that can't be true.

I don't "want" Brandon to be Jon's father. I think the evidence points to Brandon being Jon's father, therefore Jon probably would have had to have been conceived in the black cells for the timeline to work, and therefore Ashara must have been able to get her way into the black cells, even though we have no evidence for it directly. And I don't think Ashara was impregnated at Harrenhal, so that point of yours makes zero sense. Again, I'm not "ignoring evidence".

I didn't "invent" a new child to take Dany's place. I think Dany was born at the TOJ, therefore the story of the "real" Dany was either somehow fabricated (like it was actually a stillbirth or something), or there was a baby swap at some point. Again, not ignoring evidence.

Everyone please try to stop being so condescending. I'm not some ignorant noob, I have been on this forum for years and read the main series 5 times. I do not participate on this forum to have people act like assholes toward me. I like to have rational, friendly debates. Time to lighten the mood again with smiles :);):D:D:P 

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6 minutes ago, WSmith84 said:

I'm not sure I understand. Are you saying that Ned was worried that Robert would legitimise Jon? Or that Ned had some plan to legitimise Jon?

I don't think Ned had a plan to legitimize Jon. I think Ned at that point in time was probably most concerned by a potential future war against the Lannisters, since they didn't join the rebellion until the last moment and Cersei became the queen. He could have been worried, at a minimum, the Robert could die and Joffrey, effectively being a Lannister, could legitimize Jon in the event of a Stark vs Lannister war. And we do later see a king (in a totally different context) offer to legitimize Jon and make him Lord of WF.

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9 hours ago, maudisdottir said:

 

They had spent that year apart - not "that 17 months" or "more than a year" or "a year and a half". Within a year the war ended, Ned travelled to Storm's End, ToJ and then Starfall, and returned to Winterfell with baby Jon "and his wet nurse" in tow, all before he was reunited with Catelyn. (Jon can't be significantly older than Robb, or Catelyn would never believe that Ned "had fathered a child on some girl chance met on campaign.")

So where are you getting 17 months?

 

If Jon was born around 8 months into the war (having been conceived in the black cells just before the war started) and Dany is 8-9 months younger (according to GRRM), that would put her birth at roughly 16-17 months into the war. Jon would be about 3 months older than Robb, and Ned would have had to lie about his age to claim Jon as his own bastard.

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Posted (edited)

20 minutes ago, 40 Thousand Skeletons said:

If Jon was born around 8 months into the war (having been conceived in the black cells just before the war started) and Dany is 8-9 months younger (according to GRRM), that would put her birth at roughly 16-17 months into the war. Jon would be about 3 months older than Robb, and Ned would have had to lie about his age to claim Jon as his own bastard.

I'm not going to sit here and pretend to be very good with all these time lines and all, however what I find hard to accept about the theory you put forth is that for the timeline to work, we have to assume that prisoners in the black cells are receiving conjugal visits. This is something I find highly unlikely. I don't get the impression that the black cells are some sort of minimum security holding cell where visitors are permitted. 

And even if Ashara was able to sneak in for a visit, I cannot picture Ashara and a presumably, beaten and starved Brandon, being up for coitus in a dingy feces infested dungeon. :wacko:

:);):P :D

Edited by Darkstream

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Posted (edited)

On 17/4/2017 at 9:10 AM, BRANDON GREYSTARK said:

Wylla Manderly (close in age , does not resemble any of the Manderlys , Wylla has blonde hair ,while the Manderlys has brown  ,

Leona Woolfield also has blonde hair.

On 17/4/2017 at 9:26 PM, Ygrain said:

WUT?! I didn't get that far :D How do they propose she wound up there?

They also said that all of Cat's children are bastards because Ned was married with Ashara and their son Jon is the only trueborn. Both of the Tullys brothers knew about the secret marriage but Hoster forced Ned to marry Cat and this is why Blackfish abandoned him and went to the Vale.

22 hours ago, 40 Thousand Skeletons said:

To maintain the Stark-Tully alliance. If Jon is Brandon's son, then he would have a claim to WF, and the Stark-Tully alliance is dependent on Cat's children being the heirs to WF.

Even if Jon is Brandon's son he wasn't trueborn hence he wouldn't had come before Cat's children to threaten the Stark-Tully alliance.

Edited by The Doctor's Consort

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2 minutes ago, Darkstream said:

I'm not going to sit here and pretend to be very good with all these time lines and all, however what I find hard to accept about the theory you put forth is that for the timeline to work, we have to assume that prisoners in the black cells are receiving conjugal visits. This is something I find highly unlikely. I don't get the impression that the black cells are some sort of minimum security holding cell where visitors are permitted. 

And even if Ashara was able to sneak in for a visit, I cannot picture Ashara and a presumably, beaten and starved Brandon, being up for coitus in a dingy feces infested dungeon. :wacko:

:);):P :D

LOL yes, they likely would have needed Varys to facilitate. And if Brandon and Ashara were in love and Brandon was about to die, I have zero doubt they would be up for some passionate love-making in a dingy deces-infested dungeon. ;) 

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1 minute ago, The Doctor's Consort said:

Leona Woolfield also has blond hair.

They also said that all of Cat's children are bastards because Ned was married with Ashara and their son Jon is the only trueborn. Both of the Tullys brothers knew about the secret marriage but Hoster forced Ned to marry Cat and this is why Blackfish abandoned him and went to the Vale.

Even if Jon is Brandon's son he wasn't trueborn hence he wouldn't had come before Cat's children to threaten the Stark-Tully alliance.

But a legitimized Jon, or somehow trueborn Jon, would come before Ned and before Cat's children.

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1 minute ago, 40 Thousand Skeletons said:

But a legitimized Jon, or somehow trueborn Jon, would come before Ned and before Cat's children.

Let’s pretend that there is the slightest possibility of Jon being Brandon’s son. In order for him to be legimate is either a marriage between his parents, which there is no evidence about that, and someone asking the King to legitimate a bastard. Who on his right mind would had asked the King to legitimate an orphan when there is no need for new heirs?

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1 hour ago, 40 Thousand Skeletons said:

Dany remembers very specific details that don't match up with our "knowledge" of her childhood, namely living in a big house with carved wooden beams with a lemon tree in Braavos, which is clearly not a thing in Braavos.

This has been discussed to the death... Rich folks of Braavos do have trees in their yards, and subtropical plants can be grown in colder climates. Or she confuses the memories of Braavos with the memories of Tyrosh or another place somewhere warmer where they moved afterwards. They did move a lot, and she was a little girl.

1 hour ago, 40 Thousand Skeletons said:

The son of Brandon potentially comes before Ned in the line of succession. Ned's bastard would at the very least come after Ned himself, and it would be hard to push Jon's claim ahead of Ned's trueborn children.

A bastard doesn't come before anyone. If you want to claim otherwise, you need to come up with a quote to back your claim.

1 hour ago, 40 Thousand Skeletons said:

I think he keeps thinking about his promise to Lyanna because the promise was about Dany, and Ned's relationship to Dany changes throughout AGOT. On the other hand, his relationship to Jon is totally unchanged after Jon heads to the Wall for the rest of the book, but Ned still thinks about his promise to Lyanna for some reason, as if he can actually take actions in KL related to said promise.

And how does it change? He is pretty much indifferent towards her the whole time, he is against her murder because she is a young girl and he is a principled kind man who goes out of his way to protect children.

 

1 hour ago, 40 Thousand Skeletons said:

Well, I think Ramsay forced his father's hand to send the Freys out to die and is going to kill Roose soon. So Ramsay might actually be a great example of bastards destroying alliances. Jon wouldn't prevent the Stark-Tully alliance, but he could be a threat down the line.

But that's what I'm saying - his existence doesn't prevent the alliance, and it is not his existence but his actions that are going to destroy it.

1 hour ago, 40 Thousand Skeletons said:

For example, let's take a hypothetical scenario where Jon never went to the Wall and also hated his siblings because of how Cat treated him his entire life. The Wot5K breaks out. What if Joffrey decided to legitimize Jon and the Boltons back Jon to be Lord of WF? BAM! Problems... That danger is mitigated by claiming Jon is Ned's bastard instead of Brandon's.

And again... even in this scenario, it is not Jon's existence but his actions that would make him a danger. 

Plus, with such hypothesizing, no-one would ever do a thing because, what if!!! 

21 minutes ago, 40 Thousand Skeletons said:

If Jon was born around 8 months into the war (having been conceived in the black cells just before the war started) and Dany is 8-9 months younger (according to GRRM), that would put her birth at roughly 16-17 months into the war. Jon would be about 3 months older than Robb, and Ned would have had to lie about his age to claim Jon as his own bastard.

How can she be born 16-17 months into the war when the war lasted for about a year?

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47 minutes ago, 40 Thousand Skeletons said:

I don't think Ned had a plan to legitimize Jon. I think Ned at that point in time was probably most concerned by a potential future war against the Lannisters, since they didn't join the rebellion until the last moment and Cersei became the queen. He could have been worried, at a minimum, the Robert could die and Joffrey, effectively being a Lannister, could legitimize Jon in the event of a Stark vs Lannister war. And we do later see a king (in a totally different context) offer to legitimize Jon and make him Lord of WF.

Well, Ned would have to be expecting a war with the Lannisters as the rebellion ends and then spend 15 years sitting on his hands, doing nothing to prepare. No marriages, alliances, not attempts to stem Lannister influence at court, nothing. Even if Joffrey legitimised Jon, that doesn't suddenly mean that a) Jon will turn on his siblings b ) any of Ned's bannermen will join Jon in rebellion. And surely, 15 years later, Ned doesn't believe that Jon would threaten his children, does he? As a baby, sure he might be worried at how Jon will grow up to be. But at 14, I think it's pretty clear that Robb and Jon are best buds and it seems ridiculous to me that Ned would fear Jon's ambition at this point.

As for the idea that Brandon married Ashara; wasn't he on his way to his wedding or already at Riverrun when he heard about Lyanna and rode off? Are you telling me that Brandon was ballsy enough to marry Ashara, then marry Catelyn? Or was he going to tell everyone at the wedding? Or did Ashara not only sneak into the cells to have some pre-execution nookie but also married Brandon?

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10 minutes ago, Ygrain said:

This has been discussed to the death... Rich folks of Braavos do have trees in their yards, and subtropical plants can be grown in colder climates. Or she confuses the memories of Braavos with the memories of Tyrosh or another place somewhere warmer where they moved afterwards. They did move a lot, and she was a little girl.

A bastard doesn't come before anyone. If you want to claim otherwise, you need to come up with a quote to back your claim.

And how does it change? He is pretty much indifferent towards her the whole time, he is against her murder because she is a young girl and he is a principled kind man who goes out of his way to protect children.

 

But that's what I'm saying - his existence doesn't prevent the alliance, and it is not his existence but his actions that are going to destroy it.

And again... even in this scenario, it is not Jon's existence but his actions that would make him a danger. 

Plus, with such hypothesizing, no-one would ever do a thing because, what if!!! 

How can she be born 16-17 months into the war when the war lasted for about a year?

LOL I'm really not trying to get this far down the R+L rabbit hole but I'll respond to these things at least.

Agreed, this has been discuss to death. Yes, you could hypothetically grow lemons in Braavos, but we have a very specific reference to the implausibility of having lemons in the riverlands, which is south of Braavos. I see no good reason to think the the lemon tree in Dany's memory, or the grass beneath her feet as she ran toward the house with the red door, were in Braavos.

Who says a legitimized bastard can't come before other people? Ramsay claims to be the heir to the Dreadfort himself, before all other relatives and the future children of Fat Walda. If you want to claim legitimized bastards can't be above others in succession, you need to come up with a quote to back your claim. ;) 

I;m not saying Ned's relationship to Dany changed drastically during AGOT. But his actions as HotK actually have a direct affect on Dany, who is in danger, while Jon is safe at the Wall and Ned cannot do anything for Jon, nor does he need to. For some reason Ned keeps thinking about his promise to Lyanna, and it would make infinitely more sense if he can take actions that actually affect said promise.

Yes Jon's existence would not prevent the Tully alliance, but I'm saying Ned would have been trying to mitigate the future risks of Jon by just claiming Jon as his own bastard.

"no-one would ever do a thing" -I'm not sure I understand your point.

We don't know how long the war lasted exactly. I haven't read anything that would make it impossible for the TOJ to take place 17 months into the war.

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10 minutes ago, Ygrain said:

This has been discussed to the death... Rich folks of Braavos do have trees in their yards, and subtropical plants can be grown in colder climates. Or she confuses the memories of Braavos with the memories of Tyrosh or another place somewhere warmer where they moved afterwards. They did move a lot, and she was a little girl.

...

How can she be born 16-17 months into the war when the war lasted for about a year?

First, I think we've discussed before but wether it's remotely possible to have flowers grass a lemon tree and big carved wooden beams with the house with the red door Dany remembers and have it in Braavos, I guess, conceivably...

but that's not how one writes a story. It's a detail not only which has stuck out for years, but was doubled down on in newer books. Dismissing it as childhood confusion is being intentionally blind. 

She only moved a lot after leaving the house with the red door, which is why she thinks of it as home. Not surprisingly it is also associated with Westeros.

 

Second the war lasted more than a year... the siege of storms end alone lasted about a year... Ned left Cat for about a year... it's just an approximation.

It was less than 2 years since Aegon was born right about the start of 282 and Rhaella died on Dragonstone in 284... but that's about as detailed as we can safely get.

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2 hours ago, LiveFirstDieLater said:

Having a vivid dream of a dragon in Jon's chapter would be a little give away no?

Oh, I dunno, RLJ supporters are constantly telling us that the theory isn't obvious. 

If that's true, then one litlte dream involving dragons... buried in five huge books... wouldn't give away the whole game, I'm sure.

2 hours ago, ravenous reader said:

Do you think GRRM is going to spoonfeed us the information in a simple yes-no binary format so we can write up the so-called 'canon' and pack up the forum?

I think GRRM finished writing AGOT twenty years ago... long, long before he had any remote clue there would ever be any forums about these books.

But really, for fans to make the case that Jon must have had dragon dreams, because Tyrion had dragon dreams and Jon says he did not... and then he never does, once, in thousands of pages!... is hilarious.

Also, quite frankly, it's a crazy leap for fans to believe Jon's parents are the central mystery of this series in the first place.  

GRRM has certainly never said any such thing.  There is far, far more going on in these books, that don't even have a protagonist, than the relatively simple puzzle of Jon's parents.

2 hours ago, ravenous reader said:

Both parents are important.

That's certainly true.  :D  Get back to me when TWOW is out; I'll have more to say then.

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Posted (edited)

53 minutes ago, JNR said:

Oh, I dunno, RLJ supporters are constantly telling us that the theory isn't obvious. 

If that's true, then one litlte dream involving dragons... buried in five huge books... wouldn't give away the whole game, I'm sure.

I think GRRM finished writing AGOT twenty years ago... long, long before he had any remote clue there would ever be any forums about these books.

But really, for fans to make the case that Jon must have had dragon dreams, because Tyrion had dragon dreams and Jon says he did not... and then he never does, once, in thousands of pages!... is hilarious.

Also, quite frankly, it's a crazy leap for fans to believe Jon's parents are the central mystery of this series in the first place.  

GRRM has certainly never said any such thing.  There is far, far more going on in these books, that don't even have a protagonist, than the relatively simple puzzle of Jon's parents.

That's certainly true.  :D  Get back to me when TWOW is out; I'll have more to say then.

I thought that chapter about Jon was pretty obvious myself, but you're dismissing it... 

And setting aside the whole, he was drawn to the fire touched girl shtick, there are a ton of parts about humans fire... and staring into the fire, even:

Dragons again. For a moment Jon could almost seethem too, coiling in the night, their dark wings outlined against a sea of flame. "

Not unlike:

"I see them in my dreams, Sam. I see a red star bleeding in the sky. I still remember red. I see their shadows on the snow, hear the crack of leathern wings, feel their hot breath. My brothers dreamed of dragons too, and the dreams killed them, every one. Sam, we tremble on the cusp of half-remembered prophecies, of wonders and terrors that no man now living could hope to comprehend . . . or . . ."

False identity and The parentage of multiple characters is a main plot line in the story, yes... imo including Jon, Dany, and Tyrion.

Do you think it's not? After the whole "seed is strong" debacle? After the baby swap on the wall? After Young Griff? After Sansa dressing up? After the whole mr frog martell trip? What books are you reading?

i agree there are other things going on as well, but you are at the same time dismissing things for being subtle and saying there are more subtle things going on in the books so I don't really know what your point is or where you are going with it.

im always open to new ideas and debates, but evidence is nice... I too can't wait for winds of winter

Edited by LiveFirstDieLater

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26 minutes ago, WSmith84 said:

Well, Ned would have to be expecting a war with the Lannisters as the rebellion ends and then spend 15 years sitting on his hands, doing nothing to prepare. No marriages, alliances, not attempts to stem Lannister influence at court, nothing. Even if Joffrey legitimised Jon, that doesn't suddenly mean that a) Jon will turn on his siblings b ) any of Ned's bannermen will join Jon in rebellion. And surely, 15 years later, Ned doesn't believe that Jon would threaten his children, does he? As a baby, sure he might be worried at how Jon will grow up to be. But at 14, I think it's pretty clear that Robb and Jon are best buds and it seems ridiculous to me that Ned would fear Jon's ambition at this point.

As for the idea that Brandon married Ashara; wasn't he on his way to his wedding or already at Riverrun when he heard about Lyanna and rode off? Are you telling me that Brandon was ballsy enough to marry Ashara, then marry Catelyn? Or was he going to tell everyone at the wedding? Or did Ashara not only sneak into the cells to have some pre-execution nookie but also married Brandon?

Yeah Ned during AGOT would probably think Jon is not a big risk anymore, at least in the sense that Jon would definitely not fight against his siblings. But that's a bit of an awkward conversation to have. When does one breach the subject? Maybe Ned was considering finally telling Cat and hadn't gotten around to it yet. We don't know. But I think it is safe to say that at least the Boltons would absolutely turn against the Starks if they got the chance... which they did. And they are the second biggest force in the North.

If Brandon married Ashara, which I don't think happened, they probably would have had to have met when Brandon was on his way to KL. We don't know if Brandon actually went directly straight there or if he met Ashara en route somewhere first.

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9 hours ago, 40 Thousand Skeletons said:

My mind was changed by the fucking evidence.

 

I didn't "invent" a new child to take Dany's place. I think Dany was born at the TOJ, therefore the story of the "real" Dany was either somehow fabricated (like it was actually a stillbirth or something), or there was a baby swap at some point. Again, not ignoring evidence.

Can you provide this "fucking evidence"? Preferably in point form. I imagine it must be pretty convincing if it made you change your mind about RLJ.

You claim you didn't invent a new Dany yet at the end of the same paragraph you talk of a baby swap. Not sure what that's all about but again, some evidence would be good. Something other than "it's possible".

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10 hours ago, 40 Thousand Skeletons said:

I didn't "invent" a new child to take Dany's place. I think Dany was born at the TOJ, therefore the story of the "real" Dany was either somehow fabricated (like it was actually a stillbirth or something), or there was a baby swap at some point. Again, not ignoring evidence.

What would be Ned's reasoning for sending Lyanna's child to Darry and Viserys? If it's the Targaryen look, then he could have pretended it was his and Ashara's bastard. And what exacty did he promise Lyanna then? It couldn't be to keep the baby safe, because sending a baby to an uncertain future in exile with people he didn't know is the opposite of keeping it safe. He wouldn't be able to have any influence in keeping the child safe when it's across the world. And all those years when Robert sent his "knifes" after them. Why did he just sit in Winterfell?

By your theory, Ned didn't trust anyone, not even Jon himself, with Jon's real identity (B+A). But apparently he trusted a man he didn't know with the secret child of his beloved sister, a child who's life is depending on the secrecy of it's identity. That's not logical at all. That would be a total betrayal to Lyanna. Why would he send Lyanna's secret child to Dragonstone? He had no way of knowing if Darry, or anyone involved there, would want to keep the child safe, considering it's Lyanna's. The Starks where on the side of the usurper and their enemies. There was no way of knowing if they would prioritize it's safety over Viserys or Rhaella, even if the father was Rhaegar. 

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12 hours ago, 40 Thousand Skeletons said:

But a legitimized Jon, or somehow trueborn Jon, would come before Ned and before Cat's children.

And, as we all know, Ned would see no other option than to fuck his nephew out of his birthright, for politics and for his own personal gain. That's the Ned we all know, all right. That's why after Robert's death, he threw Stannis under the ox cart and declared for Joffrey.

This makes about the same amount of sense as the one that started this thread, namely Edric Dayne being born four years after the deaths of both his parents. Let's not sugarcoat it, this is a stupid theory.

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