Tywin, Jaime and the Sack

[Scorpion92]

Hey everyone, I wanted to see what you guys are thinking about this topic. If there was already discussion about this, please redirect me, I would appreciate it.

So my question is this: we know that Mad King kept Jaime close as a hostage so Tywin does not join the Rebellion. Even Rhaegar told so Jaime.

So why did Tywin ordered the Sack of the capital, if he knew his son and heir was in Red Keep as Mad King's hostage? Did Tywin know that Aerys' circle of people consist mostly of pyromancers and people like Varys and Pycelle who are no match to Jaime in case Mad King orders Jaime killed?

If yes, how did he know it? Do you guys think that Tywin and Rhaegar were in constant communication during the Rebellion, and that is how Tywin knew everything about Red Keep and the situation in the castle? I don't remember where I have read it, but people were speculating on the nature of Tywin-Rhaegar relationship, and how Tywin might have been some sort of a father figure and role model for Rhaegar since his own father was coockoo.

Maybe it was Pycelle informing Tywin since he is Grand Maester and very loyal to Tywin and in charge of ravens?

That kinda made me think. We know how Tywin loves his eldest son and heir, so putting him at risk is the last thing I expect the lion to do. Ordering the Sack is very risky considering that Battle at the Trident occured already, and Mad King's state of paranoia would be at maximum level.

What do you guys think?

[Therae]

The war was basically over after the Trident, and Tywin would have had a pretty good idea that there wasn't much Aerys could do to Jaime at that point, especially since the point of the Sack is that the Lannisters are already there, inside the gates, and they are going to overpower any remaining loyalists before Aerys has a chance to harm Jaime (Tywin does NOT know about the wildfire). And it's entirely possible that Pycelle would have informed Tywin at the very least that Jaime is the only Kingsguard in the place, so there wasn't really anyone to enforce an order to execute him, anyway.

[Renly's Banana]

Tywin's sacking was a complete surprise attack. You have to remember that he came as an ally, so he rightfully assumed that Aerys would lower his guard. He didn't start the attack until his forces were safely inside the city walls. 

But moreover, I think it was just a huge risk that he needed to take no matter what. The Lannisters would have been left out of any and all influence like the Tyrells and Martells were had he not made his move. I assume he just trusted Jaime to defend himself or even hide somewhere until it was all over.
The Rhaegar-Tywin thing seems a bit far-fetched, but Pycelle could have easily been sending Tywin some updates. 

[Scorpion92]

6 minutes ago, Renly's Banana said:

Tywin's sacking was a complete surprise attack. You have to remember that he came as an ally, so he rightfully assumed that Aerys would lower his guard. He didn't start the attack until his forces were safely inside the city walls. 

But moreover, I think it was just a huge risk that he needed to take no matter what. The Lannisters would have been left out of any and all influence like the Tyrells and Martells were had he not made his move. I assume he just trusted Jaime to defend himself or even hide somewhere until it was all over.
The Rhaegar-Tywin thing seems a bit far-fetched, but Pycelle could have easily been sending Tywin some updates. 

I understand all your points and agree with them, but attacking a city is one thing. Jaime was inside the Red Keep castle, which was guarded by royalist soldiers. I don't think it is impossible to assume there were around at least 10-20 royalist soldiers guarding the royal castle. Mad King could have easily given the order to catch Jaime and execute him the minute he saw Tywin's treachery outside his windows. It is just too risky, especially with a pragmatist like Tywin.

I dunno, maybe I am wrong.

12 minutes ago, Therae said:

The war was basically over after the Trident, and Tywin would have had a pretty good idea that there wasn't much Aerys could do to Jaime at that point, especially since the point of the Sack is that the Lannisters are already there, inside the gates, and they are going to overpower any remaining loyalists before Aerys has a chance to harm Jaime (Tywin does NOT know about the wildfire). And it's entirely possible that Pycelle would have informed Tywin at the very least that Jaime is the only Kingsguard in the place, so there wasn't really anyone to enforce an order to execute him, anyway.

Good points. But I just do not buy the idea that there was no one to carry out the execution order. There must have been some soldiers guarding the royal castle, correct? Jaime could have defended himself from some number, since he was a prodigy at sword fighting, but eventually I presume it would not have been enough.

I don't know, maybe I am grasping at straws here.

[Therae]

You certainly should be right about there being some sort of soldiers around Aerys, but...well, I don't think there were. Jaime didn't apparently have to fight through anyone to cut Aerys' throat or to cut his way out of a circle of swords afterwards. He just killed Rossart, then killed Aerys, then took a seat on the pointy chair.

Actually, come to think of it, after Duskendale, Aerys would not allow anyone other than KG near him with a blade, so there it is.

[Renly's Banana]

21 minutes ago, Scorpion92 said:

I understand all your points and agree with them, but attacking a city is one thing. Jaime was inside the Red Keep castle, which was guarded by royalist soldiers. I don't think it is impossible to assume there were around at least 10-20 royalist soldiers guarding the royal castle. Mad King could have easily given the order to catch Jaime and execute him the minute he saw Tywin's treachery outside his windows. It is just too risky, especially with a pragmatist like Tywin.

I'm actually not sure exactly when it was that Tywin began sacking the city. I can't remember if it's ever explicitly stated whether or not he got his forces inside the Red Keep, THEN began his attack, or before. I would imagine he betrayed Aerys after having his troops inside the castle, but idk; somebody feel free to correct me if I'm wrong. 

Another good point to bring up is that Tywin has always had a LOT of confidence in Jaime's skills. We hear from him several times that, "oh, so and so would never have happened to Jaime cause he's better than that." Cersei echoes this too. If he did begin his attack after breaching the Red Keep, I think he naturally assumed his son could hold off any attack for a bit. Or maybe he rightfully assumed that Aerys would be too shocked and overwhelmed to even remember that Jaime was there. 

[1000th Lord Commander]

I agree with Banana. At that point, the threat of changing kings with no Lannister influence was so great that Tywin was willing to risk Jamie's death in order to get influence with the new reigme.

What I'd actually like to know is the timing of things. We know that the Trident decided things for Tywin, but who told him about the battle? Pycelle? A raven from Robert's Rebels? And assuming Tywin had all his forces ready, how did they beat the rebels to the capital?

[Lost Melnibonean]

1 hour ago, Therae said:

Actually, come to think of it, after Duskendale, Aerys would not allow anyone other than KG near him with a blade, so there it is.

Jaime was holding Aerys hostage! 

Tywin had three choices: 1) support his old buddy; 2) kill his old buddy, take his old buddy's grandson in hand and claim the regency in Aegon’s name; or 3) kill his old buddy, his old buddy's family, and throw in with Robert. He chose Robert, and his gamble paid off with Jaime surviving and Cersei becoming queen. 

[zandru]

Note that Aerys had only the one Kingsguard left, Jaime. Then he sent Jaime away, with orders to bring back Tywin's head. In theory (the "power of oaths"), it was Tywin who was at risk, and from his own son, not Jaime who was at risk from Tywin.

The power of blood was something Aerys hadn't factored in, however. Jaime wasn't likely to kill his Lord Father, in spite of his Kingsguard oath. Would Tywin have killed Jaime in self defense? He could have talked the kid out of it; no problem. So the actual physical risk to Jaime was minimal.

Aerys also apparently thought that the risk to himself from Jaime was minimal, given the Kingsguard oath. (And the king was also, as noted, cuckoo-bananas by this time.) Nobody, including Jaime, realized that he had a breaking point, and the combination of being ordered to kill his own father, plus the wildfire doomsday set-up, plus Aerys continuing to order it be set off, even after his pyromancer-hand had been slaughtered, was it.

Pycelle would have given Tywin the latest up to the minute detail on the situation in the Red Keep; I suspect he wasn't aware of the wildfire doomsday device. I strongly doubt that Rhaegar and Tywin were pen pals; Tywin wasn't even a participant until after Rhaegar's untimely death.

[Victor Newman]

2 hours ago, Scorpion92 said:

Maybe it was Pycelle informing Tywin since he is Grand Maester and very loyal to Tywin and in charge of ravens?

Probably this. Tywin had an inside man feeding him information.  War is risky.  There is no sure way to protect Jaime and guarantee his safety but sacking the city is what soldiers do. 

[1000th Lord Commander]

Found a note in the wiki which stated that the battle of the trident and the sack of king's Landing was a fortnight apart

[John Suburbs]

6 hours ago, Scorpion92 said:

Hey everyone, I wanted to see what you guys are thinking about this topic. If there was already discussion about this, please redirect me, I would appreciate it.

So my question is this: we know that Mad King kept Jaime close as a hostage so Tywin does not join the Rebellion. Even Rhaegar told so Jaime.

So why did Tywin ordered the Sack of the capital, if he knew his son and heir was in Red Keep as Mad King's hostage? Did Tywin know that Aerys' circle of people consist mostly of pyromancers and people like Varys and Pycelle who are no match to Jaime in case Mad King orders Jaime killed?

If yes, how did he know it? Do you guys think that Tywin and Rhaegar were in constant communication during the Rebellion, and that is how Tywin knew everything about Red Keep and the situation in the castle? I don't remember where I have read it, but people were speculating on the nature of Tywin-Rhaegar relationship, and how Tywin might have been some sort of a father figure and role model for Rhaegar since his own father was coockoo.

Maybe it was Pycelle informing Tywin since he is Grand Maester and very loyal to Tywin and in charge of ravens?

That kinda made me think. We know how Tywin loves his eldest son and heir, so putting him at risk is the last thing I expect the lion to do. Ordering the Sack is very risky considering that Battle at the Trident occured already, and Mad King's state of paranoia would be at maximum level.

What do you guys think?

Initiating the sack was the only way Tywin could get his men close enough to the Red Keep to have even a chance of getting Jaime out alive. Here is the setup:

Tywin arrives at the capital with his army and then winkles his way into the city pretending to be its defender. (I personally don't think the MK believed Tywin, but since he was going to light up the whole city anyway, then sure, let Tywin in.) The MK already has thousands of defenders in the Red Keep, so Tywin's men would only be needed along the city walls and perhaps a few key points in the city itself. Any movement of large numbers of Westerland soldiers toward the RK would raise Aerys' suspicions and Jaime would be paraded to the RK walls with a noose around his neck.

Tywin has to act before the northmen arrive because once that happens, he either has to fight them or join them. Fighting them puts him on the losing side of the war while joining them gets Jaime killed. But how do you get enough men close enough to the RK to occupy the defenders without Aerys knowing that you've turned your cloak? The best way is to sow chaos in the city streets and keep Aerys guessing as to what is happening until it's too late. So initial reports would be that riots have broken out in the city and Lannister soldiers are restoring order. As the chaos spreads, more soldiers are needed in the city and they have to get closer and closer to the RK, which is fairly close to Flea Bottom where any riot would logically begin. Once he has enough chaos in the streets, and reports are now coming in that northmen have breached the outer walls, Tywin can launch an assault on the RK and hopefully get some of his top men -- namely Crakehall and Westerling -- into the keep to at least protect Jaime from Aerys' guards, if not subdue him and forcibly remove him from the keep.

Once the fighting began in the city, there was no way to prevent it from escalating into a full-blown sack.

[Ralphis Baratheon]

Tywin does not make a move like he did without covering all his bases. Pycelle probably got a raven to Tywin telling him Jamie was having a hard time standing down while Aerys raped his wife and burned people alive. He knew Jamie would make the smart decision once the sack happened.

[Stormking902]

I believe Tywin loves the Lannister legacy more then even his own children, of course Tywin wanted Jamie to make it out alive but to risk the Lannisters decline in status or possibly worse was something Tywin wouldnt risk. He assumed the castle would be a cluster **** and that Jamie could sneak off some where and hide or at least move quickly towards the Lannister army, Aerys needed all the loyal men he had and Jamie is of the kings guard whos duty is to protect him and he WOULD have perhaps if Aerys didnt order the city burned.  

[LindsayLohan]

18 hours ago, Stormking902 said:

I believe Tywin loves the Lannister legacy more then even his own children, of course Tywin wanted Jamie to make it out alive but to risk the Lannisters decline in status or possibly worse was something Tywin wouldnt risk. He assumed the castle would be a cluster **** and that Jamie could sneak off some where and hide or at least move quickly towards the Lannister army, Aerys needed all the loyal men he had and Jamie is of the kings guard whos duty is to protect him and he WOULD have perhaps if Aerys didnt order the city burned.  

There's a lot of truth in this. 

Recall how Tywin treated Tyrion upon hearing the news of Jaime's capture by the Starks.  Tywin was certain Jaime would not come home along.  The Starks were hard men, did not employ a headsman, and had been destroying their enemies and ruling the North for thousands of years.  With the death of Ned Stark, Jaime's own beheading was a certainty.  Tywin immediately shifted his focus to positioning Tyrion as Hand of the King, and to begin grooming Tyrion as his heir.  No matter what Tywin said down the road (especially after Jaime had returned), for the period of time Jaime was hostage, Tywin looked to Tyrion as his heir.  He gave Tyrion meaningful work (Hand, Master of Coin) and a highborn wife (Sansa) worthy of the Lord of Casterly Rock. 

Jaime was always Plan A, but upon losing Jaime he immediately moved on to Plan B.  He didn't take a long time to come around to it, or do it half-assed.  Within hours of learning of Jaime's capture, he began moving Tyrion into place. 

Tywin was all legacy.

[Danelle]

21 hours ago, Stormking902 said:

He assumed the castle would be a cluster **** and that Jamie could sneak off some where and hide or at least move quickly towards the Lannister army, Aerys needed all the loyal men he had and Jamie is of the kings guard whos duty is to protect him and he WOULD have perhaps if Aerys didnt order the city burned.  

Tywin could not exactly predict Aerys or Jaime's actions but he knew that both of them were impulsive.

Quote

"Then why did the Mountain kill her?"

"Because I did not tell him to spare her. I doubt I mentioned her at all. I had more pressing concerns. Ned Stark's van was rushing south from the Trident, and I feared it might come to swords between us. And it was in Aerys to murder Jaime, with no more cause than spite. That was the thing I feared most. That, and what Jaime himself might do." 

And it turns out that Tywin was right. Jaime was unpredictable and in the end he was lucky that Jon Arryn refused to send Jaime to the Wall and allowed him to remain in the KG.

On the other hand, Jaime knew that he had to defend the city and he tried to persuade Aerys to surrender of course when his request was denied he knew that Rossart and Aerys were about to burn the city so he went after them. 

 

[The Mountain That Flies]

It's worth remembering that once Jaime joined the Kingsguard, Tywin had effectively lost him. Yes, someone being unable to inherit/serve their house is not the same thing as them dying, but from Tywin's POV he's not going to get his son back without taking the risk of sacking the city. If the rebels had taken King's Landing without Tywin's assistance, he had no reason to believe Jaime would be pardoned, so at that point it was worth the dice roll.

On 4/17/2017 at 6:52 PM, 1000th Lord Commander said:

Found a note in the wiki which stated that the battle of the trident and the sack of king's Landing was a fortnight apart

The fact Tywin got to the city when he did remains one of my few serious complaints about travel time, as it either makes no sense or Tywin was already on the move before the Trident (which contradicts most sources).

[Adam Yozza]

The point was made further up on the thread, but after Duskendale Aerys refused to allow any blades within his vicinity except for those of his Kingsguard, not even to shave or cut his hair/nails. Jaime was the only Kingsguard in the city at the time, and Tywin knew about this policy since he witnessed it being passed firsthand. It's a safe bet that paranoid, insane Aerys would have kept this going through the war when he suspected that anyone/everyone was a plotting traitor. Jaime, at the King's side, would have been fine. If Aerys had ordered Jaime killed there was no one to carry it out.

26 minutes ago, The Mountain That Flies said:

The fact Tywin got to the city when he did remains one of my few serious complaints about travel time, as it either makes no sense or Tywin was already on the move before the Trident (which contradicts most sources).

Wartime reports can't really be trusted, and I don't think any source on Tywin's movements comes from anyone who was with him. He probably raised his banners at the start of the war, kept them on the border at Deep Den; ready to strike in any direction; and then started marching towards King's Landing when he heard news of Robert and Rhaegar moving for a confrontation at the Trident, most likely intending to side with whatever side won that fight much like Frey did.