Maltaran

UK Politics Unexpected Election edition

149 posts in this topic

Posted (edited)

Since May's announcement has brought the old thread over the limit.

How big will be the Labour collapse? Will the Lib Dem resurgence actually happen? Can the SNP make a clean sweep this time?

Edited by Maltaran

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17 minutes ago, Maltaran said:

Since May's announcement has brought the old thread over the limit.

How big will be the Labour collapse? Will the Lib Dem resurgence actually happen? Can the SNP make a clean sweep this time?

I can't see the nats getting the sweep, that was helped by a knee jerk reaction to the referendum, if they couldn't do it then they can't do it now.They'll still do very well. It is a very real possibility however that Labour might lose their only MP.

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I'd expect something like 375 Conservatives, 180 Labour, 20 Lib Dem, 50 SNP, 25 Others.

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Part of me expects this whole thing to back fire and we end up with a minority government or something.

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10 minutes ago, VarysTheSpider said:

Part of me expects this whole thing to back fire and we end up with a minority government or something.

the way the world is at the moment, I wouldn't be surprised if QEII took back the reins and told us to stop being numpties ;)

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The thing about the 2015 result in Scotland is that it was already very, very close to a clean sweep. Alastair Carmichael and David Mundell have majorities of under 1,000. Even Ian Murray has a majority of 2,600. It's tough to do better than that. As far as the opinion polls go, the SNP are polling slightly under what they got in 2015 but Labour have dropped significantly and the Lib Dems are staying where they were. The Tories are up but realistically it's hard to see that resulting in more than one or two gains. So it's not inconceivable that the SNP might get 56 again, or at least more than 50.

What would be much more significant is that Labour could be literally wiped out, without even the fig leaf of a single MP. Not one of the Labour party's top 20 target seats is in Scotland. That's amazing to me. They're literally in the position the SNP used to be, finishing a distant second or third all over the country and having nothing to show for it.

As for England and Wales, the idea is explicitly to get an endorsement of the Brexit strategy which sounds like a good idea when you look at polling data that basically says many Remain voters accept the result and just want to get on with it. But that seems to me like the sort of strategy that could easily unravel. If Labour get their act together (ha) and the Lib Dems do too, and they really push the government on the details it could be a bad bet.

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Apparently she won't be taking part in any televised head-to-head debates. Coward.

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3 hours ago, SeanF said:

I'd expect something like 375 Conservatives, 180 Labour, 20 Lib Dem, 50 SNP, 25 Others.

This looks similar to my expectations- I imagine the Lib Dems will regain around 10 of the ones they lost in 2015. I've already seen Vince Cable saying he's going to try and get back in.

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It's going to be interesting.

In Scotland at least I know a lot of people who voted SNP simply because they were sick of the other two main parties messing things up and it was a viable option. The Indieref had failed so it seemed a pretty sensible option because who could have guessed that a large proportion of the UK could be pushed to voting for Brexit, falling for UKIP lies and bullshit scaremongering.

Now though I don't think it will be so clear cut for the SNP. They might have won a lot as a viable protest vote last time but the talk of a push for a second indieref will annoy a lot of people who voted for them but still want a UK. If you ignore the independence thing a fair amount of what they do is pretty reasonable policy making so people do see them as a viable alternative to Labour, Conservative etc.

But we've got local council elections in a a month and then only a few months until a general election. That's a lot of intense campaigning and pushing for the independence vote might alienate a lot of the people who voted for them despite their views on the UK. Plus (my personal view is similar to this) I think it could potentially be very bad if the SNP keep winning landslide wipe-outs, because you potentially end up with situations where there's no opposition left. You could almost end up with a one-party system.

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For me as a mere observer, Scotland looks like the most interesting bit in this election.

I mean, I can see why May called the election from a mere party strategic point of view. It's trying to kill several birds with one stone.

Labour is a complete mess with Corbyn at the helm. So them getting wipeded off the electoral map looks like a possibility. I mean Labour dropping just a few seats would look like some sort of miracle to me.
The Tories may very well drop a few seats in the remain heavier areas like London, but those look more likely to go to the LibDems than to Labour. And as long as the chances look as good that the Tories will make up those losses in the midlands and a bit further north at the expense of Labour, that looks like pretty decent price to pay to me. As a bonus, there's even a slim chance, that Corbyn will not step aside in case of Labour losing, but instead just running again as party leader for whatever remains of Labour and getting reelected.

The SNP might even drop a seat or two to the tories. Which would also weaken the SNP's position in Westminster. Not that it is particularly strong now.

Another argument for May to call an early election now, she and the Tories kinda avoid getting hit by the (likely) negative consequences of Brexit.

So I got a couple of questions for the Brits.

What exactly will Labour campaign on? Corbyn kinda shot down Brexit was a campaign issue with three line whip on the Brexit vote. So they can't reasonably hope to portray themselves as the soft-Brexit remain party. So on the big current issue there's little difference between Tories and Labour. Campaigning for Corbyn as PM looks like a complete horrorshow for Labour with Corbyn's popularity rating. That looks like the equivalent to Walder Frey campaigning for the throne of Westeros. Follw up, if Labour loses bad, will Corbyn go, or will he try to hang on as Labour leader?

How many seats will the LibDems pick up? Will they attract enough Remain votes to pick up seats, or will they just drain votes from Labour and thus inadvertently help the Tories get an even bigger majority?

Will the SNP keep all their seats, with maybe one or two losses, or will the Tories get a couple of seats? The more Tory areas Aberdeenshire, Edinburgh, and Border region were rather pro Remain in the referendum, so there I am really curious how this election will turn out. I can see pretty much any outcome there, except for Labour winning.

What will the results in NI look like?

 

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Posted (edited)

Quote

The Tories may very well drop a few seats in the remain heavier areas like London, but those look more likely to go to the LibDems than to Labour. And as long as the chances look as good that the Tories will make up those losses in the midlands and a bit further north at the expense of Labour, that looks like pretty decent price to pay to me. As a bonus, there's even a slim chance, that Corbyn will not step aside in case of Labour losing, but instead just running again as party leader for whatever remains of Labour and getting reelected.

I don't think that's even remotely viable. If he does that and Momentum help him win (after doing - as I suspect - sweet fuck all to help Labour anywhere else in the country during the General Election), I can see Labour simply imploding altogether.

Quote

What exactly will Labour campaign on? Corbyn kinda shot down Brexit was a campaign issue with three line whip on the Brexit vote. So they can't reasonably hope to portray themselves as the soft-Brexit remain party. So on the big current issue there's little difference between Tories and Labour. Campaigning for Corbyn as PM looks like a complete horrorshow for Labour with Corbyn's popularity rating. That looks like the equivalent to Walder Frey campaigning for the throne of Westeros. Follw up, if Labour loses bad, will Corbyn go, or will he try to hang on as Labour leader?

Labour has to go all-in, hard, on the NHS. It's the one area Labour are strong on and where the Tories are always weak, and it's coming at a moment of crisis for the NHS which the government will struggle to defend. Labour can also capitalise on the rail dispute, especially as it's spreading, but that's going to be a major issue only for a relatively small number of voters. Education they can probably get some traction on as well.

But the NHS is the one area where May and the Tories are very weak (and that's why Hunt is still there, because he is expendable, so they may even have that covered) and where the general public has a vested interest. I can't see Labour winning on the issue, but since they've already committed to following through on Brexit, it may help them minimise any slide afterwards.

The only danger to the Tories is if the election expenses scandal blows up and people get arrested and suddenly the election goes totally fucking Francois Fillon on us.

ETA: The police are considering charging over 30 people over the election expenses scandal. So, that's going to be interesting. Especially if one of them is my MP (which doesn't seem likely, but still).

Edited by Werthead

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If Labour does completely implode, what's the most likely longterm result? Is the Labour name permanently sullied or could they eventually come back (with the right leadership, policy changes, etc.)? Would the LibDems be in a position to became the main opposition party for the next election after this one? 

I don't know much about UK politics, but it seems like its one of those countries (like the US) where the main political parties are pretty stable and don't change much. Its not like France for instance, where there's been a lot of different parties rising and falling over the decades. So it seems odd that Labour is apparently so close to becoming nonviable as a major party.

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24 minutes ago, Werthead said:

I don't think that's even remotely viable. If he does that and Momentum help him win (after doing - as I suspect - sweet fuck all to help Labour anywhere else in the country during the General Election), I can see Labour simply imploding altogether.

Yes, but you wouldn't think losing the vote of confidence with the margins he did, and with that half-arsed performance for the remain campaign (which was the official party line afterall), that he would still be in charge. So how confident are you, that an election loss would matter to him at all, with regards to the Labour leadership?

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9 minutes ago, Fez said:

If Labour does completely implode, what's the most likely longterm result? Is the Labour name permanently sullied or could they eventually come back (with the right leadership, policy changes, etc.)? Would the LibDems be in a position to became the main opposition party for the next election after this one? 

I don't know much about UK politics, but it seems like its one of those countries (like the US) where the main political parties are pretty stable and don't change much. Its not like France for instance, where there's been a lot of different parties rising and falling over the decades. So it seems odd that Labour is apparently so close to becoming nonviable as a major party.

Well, Labour has only been one of the big two parties for less than 100 years, so it's possible that it could lose its place to the Liberals, but probably unlikely. I think the probable collapse of UKIP could save them. After all, where are its patriotic, socially conservative working class (Tory-hating) supporters going to go then? If Labour become an increasingly left-liberal metropolitan party, there's an argument that the party most likely to become extinct is the Liberal Democrats. 

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8 minutes ago, Fez said:

If Labour does completely implode, what's the most likely longterm result?

God knows - the only thing even remotely similar in recent years would be the formation of the SDP and their subsequent merger with the Liberals, but even that can hardly be categorised as an implosion of Labour. Most likely the left would fragment, and then thanks to FPTP we'd have a permanent Tory majority for the next 20-30 years.

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8 minutes ago, Notone said:

Yes, but you wouldn't think losing the vote of confidence with the margins he did, and with that half-arsed performance for the remain campaign (which was the official party line afterall), that he would still be in charge. So how confident are you, that an election loss would matter to him at all, with regards to the Labour leadership?

He almost resigned a month or so ago over the two by-elections and decided not to after holding one of the seats. There's also signs the stress is starting to get to him (although whether that's credible rumour or wishful thinking remains to be seen). Him losing a large number of seats is simply unsurvivable.

 

Quote

 

If Labour does completely implode, what's the most likely longterm result? Is the Labour name permanently sullied or could they eventually come back (with the right leadership, policy changes, etc.)? Would the LibDems be in a position to became the main opposition party for the next election after this one?

 


Difficult to say. If we accept that New Labour's success was down to them being Tory-lite and focused in the centre ground, then the UK simply has a problem with even a moderately left-leaning party getting anywhere near power. That means the mostly likely outcome would be a New New Labour-like entity rising from Old Labour's rotting carcass, ready to seize the ground (if necessary, in alliance with the Lib Dems) if the Conservatives move further right, and a hardcore left-leaning party that will find itself tooling around in the wilderness, in furrows of obscurity ploughed previously by Arthur Scargill.

But yeah, British politics is relatively slow-moving. UKIP are still considered brand-new upstarts and they've been around for a quarter of a century. Labour exploding in relatively short order - going from power to obscurity in seven years - would be a staggering upheaval.

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11 minutes ago, Fez said:

If Labour does completely implode, what's the most likely longterm result? Is the Labour name permanently sullied or could they eventually come back (with the right leadership, policy changes, etc.)? Would the LibDems be in a position to became the main opposition party for the next election after this one? 

I don't know much about UK politics, but it seems like its one of those countries (like the US) where the main political parties are pretty stable and don't change much. Its not like France for instance, where there's been a lot of different parties rising and falling over the decades. So it seems odd that Labour is apparently so close to becoming nonviable as a major party.

John Curtice pointed out earlier on BBC News that even if Labour do lose the popular vote by a massive margin so many of their current seats have huge majorities that they should hold on to most of them so they should still be the main opposition. Of course, any authority they might still claim to have would be eroded even further by such a result.

Labour 

has to go all-in, hard, on the NHS. It's the one area Labour are strong on and where the Tories are always weak, and it's coming at a moment of crisis for the NHS which the government will struggle to defend. Labour can also capitalise on the rail dispute, especially as it's spreading, but that's going to be a major issue only for a relatively small number of voters. Education they can probably get some traction on as well.

I agree, I think their position on Brexit seems confused so they don't really want the election to be about Europe, but they might not be able to do much about that.

Will the SNP keep all their seats, with maybe one or two losses, or will the Tories get a couple of seats? The more Tory areas Aberdeenshire, Edinburgh, and Border region were rather pro Remain in the referendum, so there I am really curious how this election will turn out. I can see pretty much any outcome there, except for Labour winning.

The Tories did do reasonably well in last year's Scottish Parliament elections to finish second, but that was with an enthusiastically pro-EU Scottish leader, it seems like it would be much harder to win an Edinburgh constituency with Theresa May leading the campaign. I'd doubt the SNP will suffer many losses although some are possible, and they've probably got a chance to pick up the existing Tory and Labour seats. The Lib Dems are probably safe in the Northern Isles and might be able to regain a couple of their former constituencies where a pro-EU/anti-Independence message might go down well.

How many seats will the LibDems pick up? Will they attract enough Remain votes to pick up seats, or will they just drain votes from Labour and thus inadvertently help the Tories get an even bigger majority?

There are definitely some Labour seats the Lib Dems might win. I think they'd be in with a good chance here in Cambridge where they only narrowly last in 2015 to Labour and Corbyn's lukewarm opposition to Brexit isn't going to go down well here.

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If election polling for this election follows recent trends then Labour wins with a Blair like majority. 

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From the outside, I can't help wondering if a new SNP landslide victory in Scotland would be seen as a mandate for Sturgeon to launch a new independence referendum. I know May said it was a no-no, but if the SNP keeps its MPs, or even wins a few extra seats, it's going to be increasingly difficult for her to deny Sturgeon's right to do so. Of course, at the moment I don't think a new referendum would yield a different result, but a couple of years from now things might look different if Brexit ends up being seen as a mistake. Assuming the EU still exists by then, of course.

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I was just catching up on Newsnight and Emily Thornberry (spits), when asked what Labour's election manifesto position would be on Brexit, said that it would be to hold Theresa May to account. With friends like that, Jeremy, you don't need enemies.

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