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UK Politics Unexpected Election edition


Maltaran

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On 2017-5-5 at 2:33 AM, Mathis said:

They really, really aren't.

* waits for cogent, intellectual argument against Corbyn's policies and why May's utterly pathetic fawning towards big business, the privatisation of the NHS and corrupt foreign partners is preferable *

 

* crickets *

 

* crickets *

 

* crickets *

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15 hours ago, Werthead said:

* waits for cogent, intellectual argument against Corbyn's policies and why May's utterly pathetic fawning towards big business, the privatisation of the NHS and corrupt foreign partners is preferable *

 

* crickets *

 

* crickets *

 

* crickets *

I maintain that May is avoiding live debates (and the general public) to avoid focus on the shallowness of most of her policies.  Even the recent announcement of 10,000 extra mental healthcare workers: 1. ... to replace the 6000 we've lost in the past seven years?  No thanks for cleaning up one's own mess.  2. What do the Tories plan to cut in order to fund them?  3. Do we even have trained British workers to fill the roles (given that importing is politically tricky for the Conservatives)?  But keeping in a position that makes it tricky to ask basic questions helps...

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On ‎5‎/‎5‎/‎2017 at 7:04 PM, Hereward said:

Not really, as Labour always outperforms its general election results in local elections. The turnout is really low in local elections, but its membership is large and committed, so they suffer less than the Tories. 

Edit: Of course, the other issue is that there will be people who will vote for people who will be in charge of their local services, or for Corbyn opponents like Burnham, who will not vote for Corbyn to be in charge of Brexit negotiations, or the nation's defence or security.

Barring a Black Swan event, the Conservatives should take 390-420 seats.

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On 2017-5-7 at 5:08 PM, Zoë Sumra said:

I maintain that May is avoiding live debates (and the general public) to avoid focus on the shallowness of most of her policies.  Even the recent announcement of 10,000 extra mental healthcare workers: 1. ... to replace the 6000 we've lost in the past seven years?  No thanks for cleaning up one's own mess.  2. What do the Tories plan to cut in order to fund them?  3. Do we even have trained British workers to fill the roles (given that importing is politically tricky for the Conservatives)?  But keeping in a position that makes it tricky to ask basic questions helps...

No. The NHS is cripplingly dependent on foreign workers, and that alone will keep a large amount of migration coming into the country. Replacing that with home-trained, British staff requires radically expanding the number of nurse and doctor training places, which has not happened, and a lead time of about a decade, as well as improving the workload reputation to make it more appealing for British workers.

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3 hours ago, Werthead said:

No. The NHS is cripplingly dependent on foreign workers, and that alone will keep a large amount of migration coming into the country. Replacing that with home-trained, British staff requires radically expanding the number of nurse and doctor training places, which has not happened, and a lead time of about a decade, as well as improving the workload reputation to make it more appealing for British workers.

But we can't have migration to the level needed, cos people don't want like that word.      Also how are the Tories gonna try to keep their immigration target they are putting in their election manifesto if they seek out foreign nurses?    Its got to be better to say,  "Hey we tried to get them, but there were not enough British nurses available, Oh look that means we don't have to pay for them.  oooh look over there it will be 5 years before we might have to answer for this, and we will be in the post bexit shit then anyway no-one will remember"

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23 hours ago, Pebble said:

But we can't have migration to the level needed, cos people don't want like that word.      Also how are the Tories gonna try to keep their immigration target they are putting in their election manifesto if they seek out foreign nurses?    Its got to be better to say,  "Hey we tried to get them, but there were not enough British nurses available, Oh look that means we don't have to pay for them.  oooh look over there it will be 5 years before we might have to answer for this, and we will be in the post bexit shit then anyway no-one will remember"

Yup, this is one of the (rather numerous) things that haven't been thought through properly.

Also, fox hunting is apparently back on the agenda, because that's even remotely a priority at this time.

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2 minutes ago, The BlackBear said:

That was last year. I get it's still bad, but you're implying it just happened.

That's weird. It suddenly got flagged up on social media and the BBC link says "4 May". Either the BBC re-posted it last week or their algorithim is screwed (it's supposed to enter the year once it's more than 1 year since the event).

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I came across an opinion piece some time last week. It's a bit polemic, but an interesting read anyway, which I think sums up a European perspective. I wanted to share it earlier, but since it wasn't in English and I had no time to translate it, it took me a while to post it. If the wording looks a bit clumsy here and there, cut me some slack. It's a free translation from sincerely yours.

 

Quote

Ten Miscalulations: Theresa May's Brexit Strategy

Theresa May's Brexit strategy is based upon ten miscalutions, and above all it contradicts everything we knew and loved about British pragmatism and realism.

1. Despite all the commotion within the Torie camp about the unified front of the EU-27 with regards to Brexit: the real shock for the Britons was something completely different. Especially in Northern Ireland, Wales and Scotland, the people could only dream about May exhibiting the same amount of interest in the cohesion of the supposedly "United Kingdom" as it's currently displayed by the EU states with regards to the Brexit.

May is just pursuing her own agenda and - despite all the rhetoric about the interests of the working people - and the enforcement of a radical conservative agenda. May wants to gain more power for her party, no matter how the Brexit negotiations turn out, no matter what collateral damages it costs, as long as Labour as kept weakened May's world is just fine.

2. In the past the Tories have always pursued a "divide et impera" strategy in Europe. But this approach was doomed to fail this time. As a matter of fact it had failed at the very moment the Brexit campaign focused on Polish workers in the UK.

Because the Polish Goverment under Kaczynski was the only one, which was from the temperament and size important enough to throw a spanner in the workings of the Brexit negotiations on behalf of the Britons.

The Frontal assault on the Poles in Britain might have helped the Leave campaign to carry home the victory, but it was pyrrhic victory. Because now the Poles won't be available to take on the much needed spoiler role for Britain.

This is historically even more significant, since Poland has always been a tradional British ally, and Kaczynski is most certainly not too keen on collaborating with Germany and the EU.

3. The third miscalculation concerns the British conservatives, who are proud to have detached themselves from the realities of the EU out of sheer arrogance. Their lack of understanding and their contempt for the inner workings and mechanisms of the EU is coming back to haunt them now.

Who only appreciates French wines (and preferably at larger quantities at dinner) from Europe, also lacks a certain grip of reality with regards to the Brexit negotiations.

So there's little surprise in the fact, that May and her team were caught by surprise, that the EU-27 - ususally described as bickering bunch - cooperate that closely on their Brexit strategy.

Actually, May and her team act even more arrogant, with less grip on reality then Trump and his administration. Afterall in Washington there are still people within the administration, who are not following Trump's orders blindly, but actually voice their dissent with the President. And Trump himself has learnt a thing or two since he took office (e.g. with regards to Nato and Russia).

4. The fourth miscalculation: The strategy of May and her advisors and partners within politics and the media trying to form an alliance between the two powerful ladies of Europe (May and Merkel) has always been a pipe dream.

For a politicians who usually acts as cautious and careful as Merkel, it is a remarkable move to step out in front her parliament and interfere in a foreign election, like she did with her Bundestags speech. She thereby shattered May's artfully crafted narrative, of a special deal for Britain, in which it could keep all the benefits, while at the same time getting rid of all the obligations Britain doesn't like.

That also explains May's fake outrage over Juncker. Merkel basically didn't say anything different from Juncker, that May's living in a different galaxy. She just used different words.

5. The fifth miscalculation concerns the economical dynamics. May's campaign rhetoric rests mainly on the argument, that the economy in Britain is in a much better shape than in the rest of Europe. It is commonly known, that for May and the Tories, the EU is the grave digger for the dynamic of the British dynamic.

So it really doesn't fit into the narrative, that there are some storm clouds are appearing on the horizon for the British economy, while the blasted EU's economy is showing real signs of a recovery, and especially with regards to the job market.

6. How the Tories failed to understand, that Brexit would unify the EU will always remain the biggest miscalculation.

For a nation that has invented clubs, should know above anybody else, that somebody who leaves a club, and still wants to reap its benefits, are hardly more than a suppliant. The Tories managed to top it off, by preferably even wanting to keep a say in the EU commission.

May's folly, to pursuit out of sheer arrogance a hard Brexit is for everybody who wants to keep the EU a gift from the Gods. Because, if there was one thing the EU has always been lacking, it was an effective deterrent for its members.

With Brexit it will now be shown, what a country risks, if it wants to leave and act alone in the future.

7. Daring is also the seventh miscaculation. Whoever evokes the supposed threat of a hard Brexit on their own accord is acting self-destructive. It is roughly the equivalent of threatenening self-emasculation in a dispute over one's virility, as a trump card.

Basically, May and her ilk are possibly scoring the own goal of the decade with their stance on a hard Brexit. Because a hard Brexit is harming above all the - maybe not much longer - United Kingdom.

8. This leads us to the eighth miscalculation: From a continental European perspective, those who still hope that sanity will prevail in the Britain, the pursuit of a hard Brexit increases the likelihood, that the UK will eventually give in.

This calculation especially applies to Germany. But the conviction, that the EU can only be truely strong with the UK as a member, isn't just Berlin prevalent.

The German strategy is especially driven by the idea, to do everything to strengthen market oriented thinking within the European economy (which is regarded as insufficient in some other important EU states).

This basically means, there's no appetite for a compromise with Tories and their hard Brexit strategy on the German side. Even if the Tories (like a petulant child) bet exactly on Germany carving in.

From Germany's point of view there are reasons to compromise with Britain, but only if the British agenda were reversed and they wanted to stay in the EU.

9. The with sovereignity obsessed May turns more and more out to be the Trump of Europe. Whatever strategic blunder she produces - and there are a good many of them - it's never her own or her parties' fault. The blame always lies with others, preferably other nations.

The latest example: in lieu of the for her unexpected unanimous position of the EU-27 with regards to Brexit, May now insists that the position of the other nations means an increase of "uncertainty and instability". This could lead to higher taxes, the loss of jobs, more squander and a higher debt. In short the entirety of fear driven conservative campaign propaganda.

There are moments when May sounds a lot like Marine Le Pen. And it's not just their common believe to close down borders. It's also the idea, that more "sovereignty" leads to more wealth. Also for the average worker.

10. The final miscalculation is the belief, to be able to stand up to everything we know and appreciate about the British pragmatism and realism. Many Brexit "strategists" still believe that their country will pull a rabbit out of their hats.

They are reminiscent of the German Wilheminism of the late 19th century. They have entangled themselves in the pretty argument, that after the important Elections on the continent in 2017, and with new goverments in place the tables would turn. And thus the resistance against the Torie agenda would collapse in on itself, and Britain would emerge victorious from the negotiation table.

Baring a le Pen victory next Sunday [this was published before the election of Macron], this strategy has always been deluded.

The real surprise remains, that the delusions emerging from the Tory camp is a fundamental renunciation of British pragmatism and sense of reality. Those traits have been the hallmarks of the British foreign policy for centuries.

The UK have never been know to voluntarily hang their fate on thread. May is about to change that.

 

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May's actions have been for domestic consumption exclusively. The fact of the matter is that the rest of the EU do not give one flying shit whether May has a 12-seat or a 150-seat majority. Her party is the duly elected party of government and she is by legal Prime Minister of the UK and they will negotiate with her and her selected representatives regardless. The idea of May holding an election to give herself a "better mandate in the negotiations" sounds good, but in Europe it's a completely bizarre idea. Britain's power in the negotiations remains rooted in the UK's economic and political capital, and it enters the negotiations at a significant disadvantage even with those countries who have been allies (like Poland).

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1 hour ago, Werthead said:

The fact of the matter is that the rest of the EU do not give one flying shit whether May has a 12-seat or a 150-seat majority.

I'm not sure that's entirely true. The hard fact is, a small majority does ensure May has vulnerabilities in negotiations. If she agrees to something that will piss off the hardline Eurosceptics (busting out an old-school term there), she has to take the time to head off rebellions and/or get the opposition on board. Conversely if she makes moves the Remainers hate she has to pander to the Brexiteers. So a small majority makes negotiations harder. There's even an argument that the EU might actually prefer her to have a larger majority, I suppose, as it makes her government less inclined to have to pander to those hard-liners.

But in the end you're right that May's parliamentary majority won't dictate the EU strategy. It can't: they have much bigger issues to consider. And you're probably also right that May is looking out for herself and her party first in this election, with the EU negotiations well down that list.

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I am somewhat unconvinced May would go for a softer Brexit with a large majority.   Her actions have me more convinced she wants to go hard.

I do understand she may be playing to her audience, and that as a remoaner I'm not it.

 

However I will not be voting Tory in this election.   If may would like to ignore the Euroskeptics of her party, then I will happily do my bit and not vote for one as my local MP.   Not that there is any realistic chance John Baron will loose his seat.

 

I just hope my postal vote turns up before I go on holiday.     this is the first time I'm trying to vote by post.  normally I vote in person.

 

Can people who have voted by post confirm that its normal to also receive the electoral card?  and when I can expect the voting form.   I'm on holiday from the 4th June.

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2 hours ago, Pebble said:

Can people who have voted by post confirm that its normal to also receive the electoral card?  and when I can expect the voting form.   I'm on holiday from the 4th June.

Mine arrived yesterday - I'm more worried about losing it before I've seen how things swing locally (a pretty safe seat for the tories; and typically an even split between LD and labour) as I'll be voting in favour of whoever stands the best chance of unseating the tory.

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4 hours ago, Pebble said:

 

Can people who have voted by post confirm that its normal to also receive the electoral card?  and when I can expect the voting form.   I'm on holiday from the 4th June.

The deadline for nominations was Thursday, so I would expect the ballot papers for postal voters to be going out in the next week or so.

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13 hours ago, Pebble said:

Can people who have voted by post confirm that its normal to also receive the electoral card?  and when I can expect the voting form.   I'm on holiday from the 4th June.

I voted by post for the local elections, if I remember correctly I got the form about a fortnight before the election.

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On 2017-5-13 at 4:10 AM, Pebble said:

Can people who have voted by post confirm that its normal to also receive the electoral card?  and when I can expect the voting form.   I'm on holiday from the 4th June.

Did you get anything from the local council to confirm you will get a postal vote? I received a poll card last year for the Brexit vote, but they sent a letter to say that I'd successfully signed up. That might be a local rather than national policy, however.

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