UK Politics Unexpected Election edition

[Zoë Sumra]

Our poll cards arrived yesterday.  I'd thought my sister's postal ballot had arrived the week before last but that can't be true due to the aforementioned candidacy deadline thing - it must have been the form required for her to get a postal ballot, or the confirmation she had a postal ballot, or something.

The efficiency is highly dependent upon local authority.  In the 2015 general election a friend overseas who was based electorally in Durham complained that her paperwork arrived too late for her vote to be counted, whereas my sister's Ealing-based postal vote stuff came in nicely early.  It would be most representative to talk to people in your constituency who've used postal votes before to find out how good the system is.

[Jen'ari]

On 13/05/2017 at 4:10 AM, Pebble said:

 

 

However I will not be voting Tory in this election.   If may would like to ignore the Euroskeptics of her party, then I will happily do my bit and not vote for one as my local MP.   Not that there is any realistic chance John Baron will loose his seat.

 

 

Me either and I did in 2010 and 2015, I don't have an issue with leaving the EU in its current format, there are some parts of it I take issue with (ever closer union, too many things decided in Brussels etc) however freedom of movement is definitely not one of them, nor were most of the things Cameron tried to get reforms over.

I can't stand May, her authoritarian stance as Home Secretary, the snoopers charter etc, I'm not prepared to vote for her, I may like haggard, authoritarian despots in works of fiction but I certainly don't want one as prime minister.

The trouble is there's not other party that's remotely appealing to me so I will abstain altogether.

[Channel4s-JonSnow]

11 hours ago, Lord Sidious said:

Me either and I did in 2010 and 2015, I don't have an issue with leaving the EU in its current format, there are some parts of it I take issue with (ever closer union, too many things decided in Brussels etc) however freedom of movement is definitely not one of them, nor were most of the things Cameron tried to get reforms over.

I can't stand May, her authoritarian stance as Home Secretary, the snoopers charter etc, I'm not prepared to vote for her, I may like haggard, authoritarian despots in works of fiction but I certainly don't want one as prime minister.

The trouble is there's not other party that's remotely appealing to me so I will abstain altogether.

I can't stand May or the tories either but they are probably going to win, and there's not much we can do about that.

Its funny that after Brexit I've noticed that immigration is a bigger problem in the UK than I thought. I was living in my own bubble before but I can now see why freedom of movement is such a huge issue.

[Jen'ari]

8 hours ago, Channel4s-JonSnow said:

I can't stand May or the tories either but they are probably going to win, and there's not much we can do about that.

Its funny that after Brexit I've noticed that immigration is a bigger problem in the UK than I thought. I was living in my own bubble before but I can now see why freedom of movement is such a huge issue.

It's not the Tories as a whole I have an issue with, I'd probably still vote for them if Cameron was in charge, even Osborne I expect, it's May and the direction of her leadership, I'd like to add I find the idea of a Corbyn government equally unappealing, and Tim Farron so irritating I find myself wishing some career ending sleaze on him, just so I don't have to listen to him or see his pinched I'm about to cry face anymore.

[Werthead]

Quote

 

I can't stand May or the tories either but they are probably going to win, and there's not much we can do about that.

Its funny that after Brexit I've noticed that immigration is a bigger problem in the UK than I thought. I was living in my own bubble before but I can now see why freedom of movement is such a huge issue.

 

Immigration isn't a problem in and of itself. How immigration is managed is more of a question, but until much more fundamental, systemic and foundational issues in British society are dealt with (particularly education, and the fact that many young people are leaving school with the idea that cleaning and fruit-picking jobs are beneath them, and house pricing, especially in the cities), probably on a generational timescale, our country simply cannot cope without immigration. The NHS by itself would collapse if a significant number of staff had to leave.

The issue of how to manage immigration is a viable one, though. Oddly, simply doing more within the existing scope of the EU rules (which were somewhat more flexible than we were really sold in the media) never really came up.

[Channel4s-JonSnow]

8 hours ago, Werthead said:

Immigration isn't a problem in and of itself. How immigration is managed is more of a question, but until much more fundamental, systemic and foundational issues in British society are dealt with (particularly education, and the fact that many young people are leaving school with the idea that cleaning and fruit-picking jobs are beneath them, and house pricing, especially in the cities), probably on a generational timescale, our country simply cannot cope without immigration. The NHS by itself would collapse if a significant number of staff had to leave.

The issue of how to manage immigration is a viable one, though. Oddly, simply doing more within the existing scope of the EU rules (which were somewhat more flexible than we were really sold in the media) never really came up.

Immigration is a necessary part of any countries economy. The UK needs people to come here for a number of reasons.

However the sheer scale of recent immigration is the real issue, and it's difficult to discuss that scale without sounding like you are anti immigration altogether. The Immigration numbers over the past few years are staggering and at some point there was always going to be a backlash from Brits. 

But im not sure we could have done much within the current structure, Cameron went away and got a very weak deal , not sure he could have gotten much more out of them

[Werthead]

12 hours ago, Channel4s-JonSnow said:

But im not sure we could have done much within the current structure, Cameron went away and got a very weak deal , not sure he could have gotten much more out of them

The problem there being the already substantial concessions made to Britain over the preceding 40 years and the fact we were exceptional in the EU for how specially we were treated meant that Cameron was never going to get much more out of the EU, which wasn't in the mood to indulge another round of Britain begging for even more of a special snowflake status. However, substantial amounts of the media had perpetuated the myth that Britain was being unfairly or harshly treated compared to other EU countries (when this was very much the reverse of reality) and some parts of the public swallowed this whole.

As for free movement, there was actually more flexibility in how to deal with this: people are free to move to another country to look for work but they are not free to move to another country to use their benefits system. There was nothing stopping Britain introducing a system which monitored newly-arrived workers and deporting them if they did not have a job waiting for them or if they did not find a job within, say, three months of arrival. The UK perspective seemed to be that such a monitoring system was impractical and required too much bureaucracy, and the spirit of the idea was to simply allow a mass free-for-all of people going wherever and whenever they wanted in Europe. They perhaps should have looked again at the rules and what they could do within them. But yeah, too late now.

[Loge]

On the large aspect of Polish immigrants, the irony there is that the UK opened its labour market to them before they had access to the EU labour market. Poland's accession deal included a transition period, which the UK chose to wave and let them in immediately. 

From Wikipedia:

Quote

At the expansion of the EU including Poland on 1 May 2004, the UK granted free movement to workers from the new member states.^[17]

There were restrictions, covered by the Worker Registration Scheme, on benefits that Polish immigrants could claim, but they were abolished in 2011 in accordance with the Treaty of Accession 2003.^[18] Most of the other longer-standing EU member states exercised their right to maintain immigration controls, but these ended in 2011 in line with the Treaty of Accession of 2003,^[19] over entrants from these accession states,^[20] although some states had removed these restrictions earlier.^[21]

 

[Zoë Sumra]

Conservative manifesto released.  Main takeaways: dementia tax, school funding increased at cost of free lunches for infants, immigration reduction (including students... goodbye foreign funding of our universities), foxhunting vote, forced comparison of CEO pay to workforce pay. I honestly don't think the latter will do much if shamelessness keeps the former high.

[BigFatCoward]

Having seen the last 3 elections that matter to me be totally fucked by the pollsters, surely I'm due a result. That's how it works right?

[Channel4s-JonSnow]

I think the Tories marketing plan this year has been an absolute disaster. I'm still convinced they will win comfortably but from my perspective (and liberal friend bubble) you'd think they were worse than the Nazis. There is actually some ok things in the manifesto, more money spent on the  NHS and schools for instance, but the only thing I'm hearing is 'ARGH! They are cutting free school dinners!!!' (which may or may not be a pretty unnecessary expense.

I'm only voting for them because a coalition government would be a disaster for Brexit negotiations, they are making it hard to find another reason to do so however due to their shocking PR.

[The BlackBear]

Heard a report from an elderly safe Tory seat (Christchurch Dorset,) they were being questioned about the manifesto particularly as pertains to older voter issues, the general response was 'I don't care, still voting Tory,' or 'I do care, still voting Tory.'

[Philokles]

2 hours ago, Channel4s-JonSnow said:

I think the Tories marketing plan this year has been an absolute disaster. I'm still convinced they will win comfortably but from my perspective (and liberal friend bubble) you'd think they were worse than the Nazis. There is actually some ok things in the manifesto, more money spent on the  NHS and schools for instance, but the only thing I'm hearing is 'ARGH! They are cutting free school dinners!!!' (which may or may not be a pretty unnecessary expense.

I'm only voting for them because a coalition government would be a disaster for Brexit negotiations, they are making it hard to find another reason to do so however due to their shocking PR.

As someone who living in a similar liberal bubble, there is nothing the Tories could do that they would approve of. I'm not a fan of this government either, though there are several qualities of May's that I admire (many more professed than demonstrated, unfortunately) and a decent number of good ideas in the manifesto, but most my friends find even the negatives in the policies she's nicked off Labour.

Not that this ludicrous partisanship is limited to young liberals as the Christchurch Tories show.

[Isis]

On 16/05/2017 at 8:32 AM, Channel4s-JonSnow said:

I can't stand May or the tories either but they are probably going to win, and there's not much we can do about that.

Its funny that after Brexit I've noticed that immigration is a bigger problem in the UK than I thought. I was living in my own bubble before but I can now see why freedom of movement is such a huge issue.

Yes, there is something you can do about it. You can vote for someone else. Have you looked at everyone who is standing for election where you live?

I'm not sure whereabouts you live in the UK, but can you explain this comment about noticing 'that immigration is a bigger problem'? Do you mean that you noticed it is more of an issue where you live, or in the UK as a whole? And what are you basing that on? And do you really seriously think and feel that immigration is the biggest problem for people living in the UK today? E.g. are you more concerned about immigration than the failing NHS?

On 17/05/2017 at 7:39 AM, Channel4s-JonSnow said:

Immigration is a necessary part of any countries economy. The UK needs people to come here for a number of reasons.

However the sheer scale of recent immigration is the real issue, and it's difficult to discuss that scale without sounding like you are anti immigration altogether. The Immigration numbers over the past few years are staggering and at some point there was always going to be a backlash from Brits.

It is not the biggest problem in the UK right now and even if the UK government said 'fine, let's not let anyone else in' how is that going to solve the existing problems with education, healthcare, poverty? Those problems are not caused by immigrants.

11 hours ago, Channel4s-JonSnow said:

I think the Tories marketing plan this year has been an absolute disaster. I'm still convinced they will win comfortably but from my perspective (and liberal friend bubble) you'd think they were worse than the Nazis. There is actually some ok things in the manifesto, more money spent on the  NHS and schools for instance, but the only thing I'm hearing is 'ARGH! They are cutting free school dinners!!!' (which may or may not be a pretty unnecessary expense.

I'm only voting for them because a coalition government would be a disaster for Brexit negotiations, they are making it hard to find another reason to do so however due to their shocking PR.

Again, you can vote for someone else. Anyone else.

[mormont]

I mean, if you're defending the Tory manifesto, talking about how immigration is a bigger problem than you realised, and complaining about how the left are unfair to the Tories, you are basically talking yourself into voting Tory but just don't want to admit to it yet. IMO anyway.

[Channel4s-JonSnow]

1 hour ago, Isis said:

Yes, there is something you can do about it. You can vote for someone else. Have you looked at everyone who is standing for election where you live?

I'm not sure whereabouts you live in the UK, but can you explain this comment about noticing 'that immigration is a bigger problem'? Do you mean that you noticed it is more of an issue where you live, or in the UK as a whole? And what are you basing that on? And do you really seriously think and feel that immigration is the biggest problem for people living in the UK today? E.g. are you more concerned about immigration than the failing NHS?

It is not the biggest problem in the UK right now and even if the UK government said 'fine, let's not let anyone else in' how is that going to solve the existing problems with education, healthcare, poverty? Those problems are not caused by immigrants.

Again, you can vote for someone else. Anyone else.

Well the issue is that I am forced to vote Tory because I feel a coalition government would be very detrimental to Brexit negotiations. All other issues are secondary right now for me. The last thing I'd want would be Corbyn arguing with every decision we try and take in the negotiations and making our position much weaker. So voting for anyone other than Tory makes little sense. Having said that I think there is a level of hysteria over the conservatives that doesn't quite bare out, their policies in the manifesto seemed mostly reasonable, with a couple I very much object to ( Fox Hunting for one) 

As for immigration, I was also of the opinion that the problems are overblown, and there were a bunch of more important issues to be worried about. Since Brexit I've looked more into the numbers and I find them almost staggering, and its made me notice things I hadn't really had my eyes open to previously. I mean the immigration issue has put a strain on an already underfunded health and education system, has contributed to the house price problem in the south east, has helped to surpress the wages of low earners and pushed British people out of low income jobs. All of those problems have a number of other causes which I concede, but high levels of immigration do not help it. 

But another problem with immigration, especially here in London is cultural. It is a running joke with my friends that I am an oddity, being the only British Born Brit they know, and in most social situations, or work situations I'm the only person who was born in London and has British heritage. Conversations when I'm out treat my knowledge of english culture as a curiosity. That has an effect, something I found amusing previously now I can see how its a bit strange feeling like this in my own country. I don't think its unreasonable for anyone to be upset about rapid demographic change in their area, its a natural human reaction. 

That London voted against Brexit despite having the largest amount of immigration speaks more for the high earning middle class bohemians who live there and who's lives are totally unaffected by immigration because they have enough of a wealth cushion to not be worried, and don't live in the actual areas where immigrants move to.
 ( I am one of them btw) 

 

[Channel4s-JonSnow]

11 minutes ago, mormont said:

I mean, if you're defending the Tory manifesto, talking about how immigration is a bigger problem than you realised, and complaining about how the left are unfair to the Tories, you are basically talking yourself into voting Tory but just don't want to admit to it yet. IMO anyway.

You might be right. I've traditionally been very anti tory throughout my life, but right now most left wing politics seems to be quite aggressive, in the 'you are with us or against us' style of discourse. 

Its made me take a second look at the Tory party, because I can't believe that level of vilification can be true. 

[mormont]

10 minutes ago, Channel4s-JonSnow said:

I mean the immigration issue has put a strain on an already underfunded health and education system, has contributed to the house price problem in the south east, has helped to surpress the wages of low earners and pushed British people out of low income jobs. All of those problems have a number of other causes which I concede, but high levels of immigration do not help it. 

They do have a number of other causes, yes. Those causes are the primary causes. Immigration is at worst a minor contributory factor with an offsetting effect those other causes lack (in that immigration generates tax income, alleviates labour shortages, etc).

If hospitals are underfunded, it's because the Tory party has underfunded them, largely for political reasons. If you elect the Tory party, they might (or might not) cut immigration but even if they do, those hospitals aren't getting a single penny more. More likely, they'll get less. It would be perverse, not to say stupid, to believe that electing the Tories is going to do anything to help public service funding.

As for house prices... excuse me, I'm going to be over here laughing. None of the major parties have the first clue what to do about house prices, and you can tell, because they won't even talk about it. I guarantee you that if immigration was zero, young people would still be unable to afford to buy.

It is legally impossible for anyone to be pushed out of a job by an immigrant. They might lose out to an immigrant when both are applying for a job, but that's not the same thing at all. In most cases, they lose out because the immigrant is a better candidate. It is not going to help the economy to force firms to hire poorer quality workers. The answer here is to spend more on education and training for UK workers, a thing that will not happen if you elect another Tory government.

Summing up: immigrants are not causing these problems you're concerned about, they're being blamed for them. The actual cause is cuts, which the Tories will continue. So voting Tory will make all of these problems worse, not better.

[Channel4s-JonSnow]

11 minutes ago, mormont said:

They do have a number of other causes, yes. Those causes are the primary causes. Immigration is at worst a minor contributory factor with an offsetting effect those other causes lack (in that immigration generates tax income, alleviates labour shortages, etc).

If hospitals are underfunded, it's because the Tory party has underfunded them, largely for political reasons. If you elect the Tory party, they might (or might not) cut immigration but even if they do, those hospitals aren't getting a single penny more. More likely, they'll get less. It would be perverse, not to say stupid, to believe that electing the Tories is going to do anything to help public service funding.

As for house prices... excuse me, I'm going to be over here laughing. None of the major parties have the first clue what to do about house prices, and you can tell, because they won't even talk about it. I guarantee you that if immigration was zero, young people would still be unable to afford to buy.

It is legally impossible for anyone to be pushed out of a job by an immigrant. They might lose out to an immigrant when both are applying for a job, but that's not the same thing at all. In most cases, they lose out because the immigrant is a better candidate. It is not going to help the economy to force firms to hire poorer quality workers. The answer here is to spend more on education and training for UK workers, a thing that will not happen if you elect another Tory government.

Summing up: immigrants are not causing these problems you're concerned about, they're being blamed for them. The actual cause is cuts, which the Tories will continue. So voting Tory will make all of these problems worse, not better.

I never said it was the primary reason. Read my post. 

But you are taking it in completely the other side of the argument, that immigration is not an issue at all, which of itself is unhelpful and untrue and one of the reasons why people are so angry, their genuine concerns are dismissed as petty and ignorant.

[The guy from the Vale]

31 minutes ago, Channel4s-JonSnow said:

I never said it was the primary reason. Read my post. 

But you are taking it in completely the other side of the argument, that immigration is not an issue at all, which of itself is unhelpful and untrue and one of the reasons why people are so angry, their genuine concerns are dismissed as petty and ignorant.

Perhaps the argument itself is unhelpful. Are there issues with immigration? Almost always, yes. But the actual question that should be asked isn't if there are issues with immigration but whether there would be worse issues with or without immigration. If immigrants make up a significantly larger percentage of NHS employees than of NHS patients, for example, stopping immigration will hurt the NHS more than it helps - even if immigrants are more likely to be NHS patients than native Brits.

More to the point, the Tories have shown again and again that they will cut public services and privatise the leftovers. If you're rightfully worried about the NHS or public schools, electing the Tories will only exacerbate the problems.

As for a strong negotiating position, even if that could be achieved by this election (it can't), that is no use if your chief negotiator doesn't understand what those negotiations are about, and May has shown precisely that kind of obtuseness in talks with the EU so far.

Lastly, the current mess is almost entirely the fault of the Tories. Rewarding them for their short-sightedness and cynicism with regards to Brexit is precisely the wrong message to send.