UK Politics Unexpected Election edition

[mormont]

Before we all get carried away on the basis of the YouGov poll (and I'm historically sceptical of YouGov), ComRes published a poll on Sunday projecting a Tory majority of 110.

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/theresa-may-poll-lead-manchester-bomb-jeremy-corbyn-labour-election-latest-a7758896.html

[The Marquis de Leech]

Yeah, at this point it really depends on how the polling companies apply their demographic filters: YouGov seems to be assuming increased turnout among younger voters, whereas ComRes is assuming the opposite.

That ComRes projection still has Labour above 200 seats. It's absolutely brutal on the Liberal Democrats, who would end up on three MPs - one in England (Farron himself in Westmorland and Lonsdale), one in Scotland (Carmichael in Orkney and Shetland), and one in Wales (Mark Williams in Ceredigion). This would actually give the Liberals a worse seat count than their nadir in the 1950s, albeit on a much higher vote share.

[Werthead]

The Times clearly either 1) buys the poll or 2) doesn't really but sees it as a useful scare tactic to get the Tory base out. The main fear right now is a collapse in Tory turnout combined with a boost to the youth vote for Labour, which combined could get them into coalition territory. If there is a rebound in a strong turnout for the Tory base, then we'll see a comfortable Conservative majority. If not, who knows what happens?

A Labour win I think is not really possible. The party wasn't banking on its manifesto going over so well and has struggled to take advantage (hence Corbyn's gaff yesterday, which was really unprofessional). With a few more weeks of campaigning and a much more effective, reactive marketing team, they could make a much stronger impression.

Quote

 

Jeremy Corbyn's a brand that doesn't resonate with me and I'm a Labour voter. I'm reasonably confident he'd be a shit Prime Minister. Of course I don't like the Tories' and May doesn't strike me as overly capable either so all in all I'm not particularly enjoying this election.

Hopefully Labour performing slightly better than expected, or perhaps the Conservatives performing worse than expected, while still losing isn't sufficient for Corbyn to stay as party leader.

 

I don't think Corbyn would be a great Prime Minister but at this point I'd give him the job over May. I used to think that May was a relatively decent politician, but her performance as PM has been shambolic. Refusing to debate with Corbyn, rushing around un-edifyingly throwing Britain on the mercy of the US and Saudi Arabia has been a display of weakness and she seems to show significant lapses in understanding how the EU works and how the negotiations are going to go. Her judgement in keeping Boris and Hunt in cabinet is also quite poor, as was alienating Osborne (probably not a good idea to piss off someone who knows the country's finances and where the bodies are buried).

[mormont]

I've said before that May seems out of her depth as PM, but there we are. I suspect Corbyn would be as well, and for the record Farron would be too. We're unfortunate that at a time when we need skilled leadership most, we haven't got many options. And I suspect this is part of the story for why the polls are so weird. Support is soft because people are unimpressed by the party leaders.

But the Tories seem to be hoovering up UKIP votes like nobody's business, and Tory voters are better at coming out, so I still expect them to win easily.

[The Marquis de Leech]

1 hour ago, Werthead said:

A Labour win I think is not really possible.

I think a Labour win is now statistically possible, so long as you define winning as minority government with the support of the SNP, et al. A Labour majority is impossible, and will remain so until it becomes viable in Scotland again (or until Scotland becomes independent).

That said, I'm still in the "40 seat Tory majority" camp.

[ljkeane]

2 hours ago, Roose Boltons Pet Leech said:

I think a Labour win is now statistically possible, so long as you define winning as minority government with the support of the SNP

That's not a Labour win, that would be Labour fucking themselves out of the chance of winning a majority again for the forseeable future. It'd be a complete disaster for Labour.

[The Marquis de Leech]

An amusing blast from the past: The Times endorsed Corbyn in Islington North in 1997 because of his Euroscepticism.

[The Marquis de Leech]

29 minutes ago, ljkeane said:

That's not a Labour win, that would be Labour fucking themselves out of the chance of winning a majority again for the forseeable future. It'd be a complete disaster for Labour.

Labour have exactly two options: (1) regain its lost Scottish seats, or (2) reach an accommodation with the SNP. Until then, it literally can't govern, short of a landslide in England.

[ljkeane]

54 minutes ago, Roose Boltons Pet Leech said:

Labour have exactly two options: (1) regain its lost Scottish seats, or (2) reach an accommodation with the SNP. Until then, it literally can't govern, short of a landslide in England.

Option two basically ruins their chances of achieving option one and is pretty much political suicide for the Labour Party so while it might be a loss for the Tories it's not a 'win' for Labour.

Added to that having Corbyn as Prime Minister while beholden to a party which only cares about one region of the UK and wants to leave the Union after brexit is completed during the negotiations to leave the EU is probably the worst possible outcome.

[The Marquis de Leech]

OK. Let's say Labour have an amazing last week, and somehow end up on 270 seats. What is Corbyn to do? Look his supporters in the eye and say "sorry, but I won't work with the SNP. Even if it means a Tory Government"?

[Fez]

It seems unlikely this election, but it does seem possible that in the future Labour could have a plurality. If/when that does happen, since apparently minority governments are allowed, would they even need to reach an agreement with the SNP? Would SNP really vote no confidence and cause a Conservative government to likely form?

If that's the case, then it would seem a good idea to not shoot themselves in the foot permanently by trying to come to an agreement with SNP to avoid a Conservative minority government; assuming that YouGov poll is even remotely accurate (and I'd be skeptical; some of their US models were pretty badly off last year).

But I'm a novice at UK politics.

[ljkeane]

8 minutes ago, Roose Boltons Pet Leech said:

OK. Let's say Labour have an amazing last week, and somehow end up on 270 seats. What is Corbyn to do? Look his supporters in the eye and say "sorry, but I won't work with the SNP. Even if it means a Tory Government"?

He wouldn't do it because he doesn't strike me as caring too much about the Labour Party but, yes, the best outcome for Labour in that scenario would be to let the Tories have a minority government. The results of leaving the EU aren't going to be good for the UK regardless and that way the Tories get to take the blame and they don't provide a platform for the SNP to fuck things up, which they'll get blamed for.

[mormont]

I find Corbyn's attitude to Scotland peculiar, in that he doesn't seem to care much about it one way or the other, despite the fact that (as RBPL rightly points out) it's key to his chances of ever forming a government as Labour leader. I can't recall Corbyn ever saying anything about the union or the SNP that had any real passion behind it.

That said, his current attitude is probably getting it about right for his party in Scotland, not close to the SNP but not demonising them either.

[Dolorous Gabe]

5 minutes ago, ljkeane said:

He won't do it because he doesn't strike me as caring too much about the Labour Party but, yes, the best outcome for Labour in that scenario would be to let the Tories have a minority government. The results of leaving the EU aren't going to be good for the UK regardless and that way the Tories get to take the blame and they don't provide a platform for the SNP to fuck things up, which they'll get blamed for.

What about caring for the NHS and the people getting screwed by this tory government?

[ljkeane]

7 minutes ago, Dolorous Gabe said:

What about caring for the NHS and the people getting screwed by this tory government?

A Tory minority government isn't going to be able to do much or, probably, last very long. Neither is a minority Labour government for that matter. Especially as Corbyn can't even really hold the PLP together, let alone some sort of cobbled together anti Tory coalition.

[Zoë Sumra]

On 29/05/2017 at 4:02 PM, Stannis Eats No Peaches said:

I don't suppose there are polls for individual constituencies are there? I just want to see who has the best chance of beating the Tories (though it's a safe seat), other than just by looking at the previous election results.

No polls.  There is this website dedicated to checking the last election result for the person most likely to knock out the Conservatives: Tactical 2017. No good for anyone who wants to vote tactically for the Conservatives/UKIP (doesn't include you, as you mention) and it doesn't take into account Brexit voting affecting traditional party loyalties, etc.

16 hours ago, williamjm said:

After events over the last couple of years I'm not sure I can really bring myself to believe any poll that seems to be telling me something I want to be true. That's particularly true when this seems to be the only poll predicting a hung Parliament, although there are others that seem to suggest May will only have a small majority.

I agree.

15 hours ago, Fez said:

What would actually happen if the result was very similar to what YouGov is predicating? It doesn't look like there's any potential coalition that is plausible to think of. Are minority governments allowed under UK law or would there have to be another election?

They are - RBPL cited the most recent instances, but...

14 minutes ago, Fez said:

It seems unlikely this election, but it does seem possible that in the future Labour could have a plurality. If/when that does happen, since apparently minority governments are allowed, would they even need to reach an agreement with the SNP? Would SNP really vote no confidence and cause a Conservative government to likely form?

If that's the case, then it would seem a good idea to not shoot themselves in the foot permanently by trying to come to an agreement with SNP to avoid a Conservative minority government; assuming that YouGov poll is even remotely accurate (and I'd be skeptical; some of their US models were pretty badly off last year).

A plurality from any party renders any coalition or minority government discussion moot.  If the largest party has a minority, an alternative to formal coalition is "confidence and supply", where one or more subsidiary parties agrees not to vote for a no-confidence motion and votes with the government in order to get measures passed.  Major's Tories did this with the Ulster Unionists, and a depleted current Tory minority government might do so with UUP, the Democratic Unionists, and any UKIP members who get in.

An agreement short of a coalition in this election might take this form, but it's very unstable.

Labour plurality without regaining Scottish votes in future is unlikely, as Labour don't get enough votes in English rural areas (or in Wales, anymore).  Labour minority while permanently losing the chance of getting Scottish votes again, i.e. via governing with SNP coalition or confidence/supply, is exactly what Labour don't want.

 

But I think the polls are wrong again - people do change their mind to Tory at the last minute: people who see "dementia tax" and "lunch snatching" in the headlines don't always want to admit to planning to vote Tory: the YouGov poll was very optimistic about youth turnout... and the timing of this election blows from a youth turnout perspective (e.g. if a June election had been held fifteen years ago while I was at university, I would only have been able to vote by post, because I was registered at my hall of residence two hundred miles away from my father's house and four hundred miles away from where I usually worked for the summer.  I would have had no idea where to vote from. Postal voting is easier now than it used to be, but still.)

[A Horse Named Stranger]

2 hours ago, mormont said:

I find Corbyn's attitude to Scotland peculiar, in that he doesn't seem to care much about it one way or the other, despite the fact that (as RBPL rightly points out) it's key to his chances of ever forming a government as Labour leader. I can't recall Corbyn ever saying anything about the union or the SNP that had any real passion behind it.

That said, his current attitude is probably getting it about right for his party in Scotland, not close to the SNP but not demonising them either.

Well, it's kinda difficult to come up with a pro-Union position, that is consistent with his position on Ireland and the IRA (freedom fighters). I mean you can't agree on Ireland being in the right fighting for their independence, while insisting that Scotland should not have the right to choose its own path. So Scottish independence is a Scottish issue, and not something for a Londoner to mess with.

[Chaircat Meow]

6 minutes ago, Notone said:

Well, it's kinda difficult to come up with a pro-Union position, that is consistent with his position on Ireland and the IRA (freedom fighters). I mean you can't agree on Ireland being in the right fighting for their independence, while insisting that Scotland should not have the right to choose its own path. So Scottish independence is a Scottish issue, and not something for a Londoner to mess with.

The Irish question is a totally different issue to the Anglo-Scottish union even if you do have Corbyn's IRA sympathies. Maybe Corbyn does think like you do, and that's why he never has anything to say about Scottish Independence, but we don't really know that.

[A Horse Named Stranger]

I guess that depends on how you look at it.

If your starting point is, that Scotland was first and foremost an independent nation and country, that got in the course of history swallowed up by the English (British) Empire, that its at least consistent to say, whatever Scotland decides to do, is Scotland's decission.

I think that is at least a somewhat consistent position.

[BigFatCoward]

How bad would May have to be to make it worthwhile looking this weak? Surely literally shiting yourself is only marginally worse than appearing to figuratively shit yourself.