Maltaran

UK Politics Unexpected Election edition

113 posts in this topic

10 hours ago, Hereward said:

Well, Labour has only been one of the big two parties for less than 100 years, so it's possible that it could lose its place to the Liberals, but probably unlikely. I think the probable collapse of UKIP could save them. After all, where are its patriotic, socially conservative working class (Tory-hating) supporters going to go then? If Labour become an increasingly left-liberal metropolitan party, there's an argument that the party most likely to become extinct is the Liberal Democrats. 

Didn't we have a discussion before about the number of Labour defectors to UKIP being overestimated by almost everyone? As I recall, much of the increase in the UKIP vote in Labour constituencies is down to Labour voters staying home while other voters switch (or UKIP attracting non-voters).

In any case, I think UKIP voters will split into three camps - loyalists who stay with the party, 'job done' voters who will regard the EU issue as over and stay home or vote on other issues, then the remainder going to the Tories. The Tories will be the main beneficiaries, one way or the other, as UKIP declines. I can see Labour benefiting in some constituencies but in general I think they're going to have major problems getting their own vote out, let alone picking up votes from others.

12 hours ago, Notone said:

The SNP might even drop a seat or two to the tories. Which would also weaken the SNP's position in Westminster. Not that it is particularly strong now.

It's about as strong as it's possible to get. And honestly, the current position suits the SNP well. Losing one or two seats won't weaken them in any significant way.

12 hours ago, Notone said:

What exactly will Labour campaign on? Corbyn kinda shot down Brexit was a campaign issue with three line whip on the Brexit vote. So they can't reasonably hope to portray themselves as the soft-Brexit remain party.

But they will anyway. To be specific, they won't portray themselves as 'soft-Brexit', much less 'Remain', but they will talk about how they need a mandate to ensure the Brexit agenda isn't dominated by business interests and works for the working people, etc. 'Better Brexit' will be their theme, if they have any sense.

Other than that, going on Corbyn's statement last night, it's the NHS, education, the usual.

12 hours ago, Notone said:

Follw up, if Labour loses bad, will Corbyn go, or will he try to hang on as Labour leader?

I genuinely don't know. Corbyn's still there because the left of the party are perfectly aware that his leadership is an opportunity they won't get again for a long time. They seem unable to do anything with it, but unwilling to give it up. So he'll get a lot of pressure to stay, as well as a lot of pressure to go.

12 hours ago, Notone said:

What will the results in NI look like?

This is another huge issue. With power-sharing in the Assembly dead, the last thing that situation needed was another general election. But Theresa May clearly doesn't care. Her decision here was purely about England. That's why the Scots will be going to the polls twice in five weeks, and the Northern Irish twice in three months.

9 hours ago, Rippounet said:

From the outside, I can't help wondering if a new SNP landslide victory in Scotland would be seen as a mandate for Sturgeon to launch a new independence referendum.

By whom?

The SNP believe they already have such a mandate, and the Unionist parties won't acknowledge anything as a mandate for another referendum.

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As someone who is obsessed with politics (especially elections) I was resigned this year to hear nothing but glum headlines from everything concerning politics. Other than being disappointed, I was expecting to be bored the whole year. This is a pleasant surprise for me. Not because I am expecting my desired election outcome, but that politics remains exciting and interesting. This is gold for political analysis. 

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11 minutes ago, mormont said:

Didn't we have a discussion before about the number of Labour defectors to UKIP being overestimated by almost everyone? As I recall, much of the increase in the UKIP vote in Labour constituencies is down to Labour voters staying home while other voters switch (or UKIP attracting non-voters).

 

The groups most likely to vote UKIP are men over 55, social housing tenants, and the C2s. Now they may well have been previous non-voters, or recent non-voters anyway, but the latter two groups don't look like obvious Tories. 

https://www.ipsos-mori.com/researchpublications/researcharchive/3575/How-Britain-voted-in-2015.aspx

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30 minutes ago, Hereward said:

The groups most likely to vote UKIP are men over 55, social housing tenants, and the C2s. Now they may well have been previous non-voters, or recent non-voters anyway, but the latter two groups don't look like obvious Tories. 

https://www.ipsos-mori.com/researchpublications/researcharchive/3575/How-Britain-voted-in-2015.aspx

I'm not sure why not? Ipsos Mori show that C2s in 2015 were equally likely to vote Tory as they were Labour.

https://www.ipsos-mori.com/researchpublications/researcharchive/3575/How-Britain-voted-in-2015.aspx

This article isn't the one I was looking for but is an interesting analysis, suggesting that many Labour defectors to UKIP got there by first switching to another party. It also addresses the breakdown of working-class UKIP support.

http://blogs.lse.ac.uk/politicsandpolicy/working-class-votes-and-conservative-losses-solving-the-ukip-puzzle/

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In ordinary circumstances, I think that ex-Labour voting UKIP supporters would return to the party, but I think that's impossible while Corbyn remains leader.

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Interesting. Thanks for the thoughts all. I'm always interested in the politics/elections of other countries, but since I only know English that mostly restricts me to the UK and Canada (sorry Aussies and Kiwis).

Assuming the Conservatives do about as well as expected, is there anything realistically at stake for them here (ignoring the opportunity to further humiliate Labour)? Are there any possibilities of certain MPs winning or losing that would cause them to change their positions (in either direction) on anything?

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31 minutes ago, Fez said:

Interesting. Thanks for the thoughts all. I'm always interested in the politics/elections of other countries, but since I only know English that mostly restricts me to the UK and Canada (sorry Aussies and Kiwis).

Assuming the Conservatives do about as well as expected, is there anything realistically at stake for them here (ignoring the opportunity to further humiliate Labour)? Are there any possibilities of certain MPs winning or losing that would cause them to change their positions (in either direction) on anything?

If they do well enough, May might be able to ignore the hard Brexit crowd among her backbenchers. I think such a success is incredibly unlikely though. Also, the Tories might well have a worse result than expected right now - there's still an election campaign to run, and I expect Tories in Remain districts to face some stiff opposition this time around.

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That depends on how eurosceptic any new MPs would be, though. I don't know and I don't know if anyone else does either. Even Remainers (like the prime minister) are Brexiteers now, so who can tell.

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1 minute ago, Hereward said:

That depends on how eurosceptic any new MPs would be, though. I don't know and I don't know if anyone else does either. Even Remainers (like the prime minister) are Brexiteers now, so who can tell.

Sure, but soft Brexiteers might still fare better in Remain districts than hard Brexiteers would. We'll have to wait and see, though.

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I'm not sure there will be too much leeway given to Tory candidates to back differing versions of Brexit. May is a disciplinarian and her whole strategy relies on convincing the EU (and UKIP voters) that she would be happy to have the hardest of Brexits, so a better, and softer, Brexit deal is forthcoming. She'll then have to sell that to her own party.

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5 minutes ago, theguyfromtheVale said:

Sure, but soft Brexiteers might still fare better in Remain districts than hard Brexiteers would. We'll have to wait and see, though.

Most people won't know what type of Brexit their mp wants, so I doubt it will matter that much.

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14 minutes ago, Hereward said:

I'm not sure there will be too much leeway given to Tory candidates to back differing versions of Brexit. May is a disciplinarian and her whole strategy relies on convincing the EU (and UKIP voters) that she would be happy to have the hardest of Brexits, so a better, and softer, Brexit deal is forthcoming. She'll then have to sell that to her own party.

That's kind of what I was aiming for. If Labour had any sense they'd try to position themselves as the party that respects the result of the referendum, but doesn't want to ignore the 19% who lost, either, as the Tories are trying to do. But then, it's Labour, so that if is a pretty big one.

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Labour cannot surely expect to win, they don't even have a party who are united behind a single leadership character, let alone a consistent manifesto.
They are in total shambles and that is going to ruin their chances in a lot of places. Seeing as Corbyn opposed Brexit then any are that voted in favour of it will be against Labour, so they can't hope to win many of the places that you'd think would be traditional Labour camps. Those working class areas tended to be pro-leave due to loss of jobs etc to Europe, so they are hardly going to vote in a party who fundamentally opposed the leave idea.

The SNP "should" be getting really worried.
The failed in their mission for the first referendum. But won a lot of voters over being a decent alternative to the old guard. People thought the independence thing was dead and that the SNP were worth a risk. To then drag the independence thing back in will alienate a lot of the new voters who went with them in 2015.
I think they really could loose seats to Conservatives or Lib Dems, or even Labour. If that happens they will be pushed back again and Nicola will have another tantrum over it. She'll not get her referendum without a strong position, losing seats will cost her that.

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10 hours ago, mormont said:

But they will anyway. To be specific, they won't portray themselves as 'soft-Brexit', much less 'Remain', but they will talk about how they need a mandate to ensure the Brexit agenda isn't dominated by business interests and works for the working people, etc. 'Better Brexit' will be their theme, if they have any sense.

Why do I get the feeling, this will terribly backfire and Labour will find a way they hang themselves with inconsistent positions...

10 hours ago, mormont said:

It's about as strong as it's possible to get. And honestly, the current position suits the SNP well. Losing one or two seats won't weaken them in any significant way.

Maybe. But as strong as it can possibly get is not particularly strong either. At least from the outside it doesn't look like May or the Tories particularly care about what happens at Holyrood, or whatever the SNP is doing at Westminster.

 

47 minutes ago, theguyfromtheVale said:

If they do well enough, May might be able to ignore the hard Brexit crowd among her backbenchers.

I am not entirely sure, whether that is atm a mere backbencher position, or simply the popular position to take. And May has kinda managed to put herself into that corner. Whether this mere posturing or not, if she comes home with a normal Norway like deal, I can see her backbenchers and the UKIP crowd screaming for her traitorous sell out head. Remember on the continent, there's very little appetite for a British cherry picking exercise. So I am not entirely sure, she has that many alternatives to a hard Brexit, if she likes living in 10 Downing Street. With the hard Brexit, she at least still has the option to throw BoJo under the red double decker bus in London. Which looks like the only reason she's appointed that buffoon to such an important position.

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Quote

 

As someone who is obsessed with politics (especially elections) I was resigned this year to hear nothing but glum headlines from everything concerning politics. Other than being disappointed, I was expecting to be bored the whole year. This is a pleasant surprise for me. Not because I am expecting my desired election outcome, but that politics remains exciting and interesting. This is gold for political analysis.

People are very tired of elections here right now. We had the Scottish referendum in 2014, the general election in 2015, the EU referendum in 2016, not to mention one Conservative, one UKIP and two Labour leadership contests and the American election, which consumed almost every single non-Brexit political headline of 2016. 2013 was the last year we had where people didn't either go to the polls or see a major election event going on that would impact on their lives, which seems a very long time ago now.

I think apathy is going to be a major danger in this election.

Quote

 

They are in total shambles and that is going to ruin their chances in a lot of places. Seeing as Corbyn opposed Brexit then any are that voted in favour of it will be against Labour, so they can't hope to win many of the places that you'd think would be traditional Labour camps. Those working class areas tended to be pro-leave due to loss of jobs etc to Europe, so they are hardly going to vote in a party who fundamentally opposed the leave idea.

 

Except it is well-known that Corbyn was in favour of Brexit and was very reluctantly bullied into supporting remain by his MPs, and has steadfastly refused to confirm if he actually voted for Remain. That's one message that did get out to the country at large, so I don't think Corbyn's personal popularity is going to hinge on that issue so much.

Channel 4 was in South Thanet and, in a very vague and highly unscientific poll of a few passers by, they found quite a few people who voted UKIP in 2015 to were returning to the Tories. They found I think exactly two people who'd vote for UKIP, but only if it was Farage standing (who has said he might).

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UKIP is dead. The whole purpose of that party was to get the UK out of the EU. Article 50 has been triggered. So they need to come up with some sort of justification for their mere existence. The to make sure we really get our Brexit doesn't fly imo, since neither Tories not Labour have shown any intention to reverse the referendum. So UKIP has outlived its purpose now.

Their voters (to which I refered to as UKIP crowd) will easily find more suiting homes. The xenophobes can find an undiluted version of their ilk at the BNP (not that UKIP was much less ouvert in their racism). The other Brexiters can go back to the Tories, Labour or stay home again.

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With all the Lib Dems who lost in 2015 announcing their attempts to return, a piece of completely random unverified speculation on Twitter - Ed Balls will announce he's standing again on Ed Balls Day. Also, Ken Clarke (who previously said he would retire in 2020) has decided not to stand down now because he doesn't want Dennis Skinner to be Father of the House.

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21 minutes ago, Notone said:

UKIP is dead.

The writing's certainly on the wall. I suspect they will only start to properly realise it on June 9th, and by 2022 the game will be up. I just wonder how many leaders they will chew through and spit out before then. 

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