UK Politics Unexpected Election edition

401 posts in this topic

15 hours ago, mormont said:

Not likely, no.

Remember this is a first-past-the-post election, and in most seats Labour start from way back. Plus, the Labour gains are not coming from the Tories, who are also increasing their vote share from 2015. Even if that swing is uniform, and it likely isn't, and even if that poll is correct, and it may not be, Labour probably won't gain enough seats to form a coalition with the SNP, even if that were politically possible, which it isn't.  Neither party can form a coalition with the Lib Dems either, because Labour will have pinched almost all of their seats and the Tories will have pinched most of the rest, so they will be irrelevant.

The most likely outcome, if that polls is right, is a narrow Tory majority.

Actually, the current narrow Tory majority is based off a 6.5% margin. If the Tories are less than 5% in front, that's a hung parliament on a uniform swing (never mind that the Tories doing much better in Scotland means the swing is bigger in England and Wales). Pinching Lib Dem seats is a bit moot, given how few of them there are.

If the Tories fall more than 10 short of a majority (i.e. the margin that can be made up with DUP support), a Labour minority government suddenly becomes possible. Not likely (at least not until Labour hits around 270 seats), but possible.

Edited by Roose Boltons Pet Leech

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