Maltaran

UK Politics Unexpected Election edition

150 posts in this topic

Posted (edited)

I am so PUMPED UP about this election. Finally, we are going to settle accounts with Corbyn. I think the opinion polls may even be overestimating Labour's vote share. Historically, polls have very rarely underestimated Labour and the opposition's vote share tends to decrease as the election draws nearer . We also are miles ahead of Labour in terms of leadership and trust wrt the economy. It should also be remembered that Corbyn, Milne, McDonnell together with their collective incompetence are now going to have to run an election campaign with much of the PLP mutinous. It does not look like this ends well for them.

As for all these people saying 'oh there are so many elections, we are apathetic' what a bunch of losers. Most of the population spends very little time thinking about politics. All they have to do is get themselves down to the polling station, read the papers and watch a few broadcasts. How hard can it be? I don't actually think there will be much apathy among the electorate at large, although it will be a different story among activists and the more interested voters, of course. This is just a GE we are talking about after all, not a referendum.

On Scotland: doesn't matter. The SNP are going to win again. We might embarrass them in a couple of seats but realistically that's all that can be hoped for. If our plan is to push Indyref2 back beyond the next Holyrood elections, in order to give the Scottish unionist parties a shot at taking out the separatist majority, the SNP were always going to win a GE in Scotland on a pro-Indy platform before then because the GE was going to be held before the Holyrood election (saving unusual circumstances).

 

Edited by Chaircat Meow

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1 hour ago, Lordsteve666 said:

The SNP "should" be getting really worried.
The failed in their mission for the first referendum. But won a lot of voters over being a decent alternative to the old guard. People thought the independence thing was dead and that the SNP were worth a risk. To then drag the independence thing back in will alienate a lot of the new voters who went with them in 2015.

I'm a bit unconvinced about the suggestion that there's a big pool of SNP voters out there who would be so horrified by the prospect of a second Independence Referendum that they boycott the party. Perhaps you could find a few who might think that, but it seems unlikely to be a big crowd. When the SNP's dominance over Scottish politics ends I wouldn't think it would be over an Independence-related issue, it would be more likely to the same sort of thing that usually takes down political parties - major scandals or poor performance in Government.

With all the Lib Dems who lost in 2015 announcing their attempts to return, a piece of completely random unverified speculation on Twitter - Ed Balls will announce he's standing again on Ed Balls Day. Also, Ken Clarke (who previously said he would retire in 2020) has decided not to stand down now because he doesn't want Dennis Skinner to be Father of the House.

BBC News were speculating about whether David Milliband could make a comeback as well, he's been working for a charity dealing with disasters which should be good experience for the current Labour party.

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It turns out that Ed Balls day is actually after the deadline for nominations, so if he is going to mount a comeback he can't get quite as much free publicity from it

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Posted (edited)

CNN isn't mincing words. Theresa May: A British authoritarian?

Opinions? My knowledge of May is pretty limited, so my own opinion is pretty restricted to "but that classy British accent makes her sound so polite".

Edited by denstorebog

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It's ridiculous. Is she a consensus politician? No, she's a control freak, like most British prime ministers, though probably more than most, but less than Brown, Thatcher, Wilson. It comes with not having a coalition government mindset. The only way to get what you want done is to ensure you have no-one you need to appease. Is that ideal? Probably not. Does it mean a threat to British democracy? Clearly not. Attlee nationalised the entirety of significant British industry, overthrew the health and welfare systems, and introduced massive social, economic and cultural change. Then submitted himself to election, lost narrowly and resigned. Thatcher likewise, while respecting the British parliamentary system above all. She resigned when she still had the support of most of the Tory Party and walked away, however ungraciously afterwards. 

The British system is an elective dictatorship, with guaranteed freedoms and checks and balances around the edges, and has been for hundreds of years, with everyone accepting that when you lose support, you go. A CNN theatre critic clearly doesn't understand that.

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4 hours ago, Hereward said:

Attlee nationalised the entirety of significant British industry, overthrew the health and welfare systems, and introduced massive social, economic and cultural change. Then submitted himself to election, lost narrowly and resigned.

Technically he won first, before losing the following year. Cue alternate history ponderings about what would have happened if Attlee had waited until 1952...

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Posted (edited)

8 hours ago, Chaircat Meow said:

I am so PUMPED UP about this election. Finally, we are going to settle accounts with Corbyn. I think the opinion polls may even be overestimating Labour's vote share. Historically, polls have very rarely underestimated Labour and the opposition's vote share tends to decrease as the election draws nearer . We also are miles ahead of Labour in terms of leadership and trust wrt the economy. It should also be remembered that Corbyn, Milne, McDonnell together with their collective incompetence are now going to have to run an election campaign with much of the PLP mutinous. It does not look like this ends well for them.

I think Corbyn's best shot in this election was getting into a TV debate - voters would see him unfiltered, and since expectations would be so low (courtesy of a mindbogglingly hostile media), him not drooling would see a bounce. He would also be able to challenge the underlying and deadly narrative that Labour overspending (rather than 3+ decades of neoliberalism) caused the GFC*. As it is, May was very sensible (if cowardly) to avoid a debate.

I also think that if Labour does badly, and Corbyn does resign, it is entirely possible that the membership will (not without reason) pin the blame on the relentless internal undermining of his leadership from Day One. Which means the Labour Civil War between membership and MPs continues, just involving different people.

*I think the GFC narrative currently screws Labour in the same way that Black Wednesday screwed the Tories for years afterwards.

Edited by Roose Boltons Pet Leech

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Is there any possibility of a major surprise in this election?

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Oh there is always a possibility the Conservatives don't win with a Landslide.

unfortunately for me that counts as a major surprise.

 

I guess its also possible Jeremy Hunt could have difficulties depending who is opposing him although I suspect he's in a rather safe seat.

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Yeah, the only surprises I can see would be specific people losing supposedly safe seats, but I don't know enough to know which people or seats these might be.

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Carswell's gone

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No surprise. His bridges were all burned. Hope Banks stands in the constituency as promised, and loses his deposit.

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6 hours ago, Denvek said:

Yeah, the only surprises I can see would be specific people losing supposedly safe seats, but I don't know enough to know which people or seats these might be.

Currently, polls are showing an average swing of 7% from Labour to Conservative, compared to 2015.  In practice, that probably means there will be a range between a couple of seats showing small swings to Labour (even in 1983, Labour gained a handful of seats) at one end, to swings of 14-15% to the Conservatives,  at the other.

The range is from Brighton Kemptown being won by Labour to Doncaster North being won by the Conservatives, with the large majority of seats showing swings to the Conservatives.

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Given the Brexit why wouldn't there be more support for the SNP and Scottish independence?

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26 minutes ago, Ser Scot A Ellison said:

Given the Brexit why wouldn't there be more support for the SNP and Scottish independence?

For three reasons. First, existing support for the SNP may already have hit its peak: the 2015 result for the SNP was so good that it may simply not be possible for them to do better. Second, although the majority in Scotland voted Remain not all of those who did so are so committed to the EU that they'd rather leave the UK than the EU. Quite a few accept that the UK is going to leave the EU and would rather live in that situation than break up the UK. Third, a fair number of SNP supporters voted Leave. They want what they regard as a genuinely independent Scotland, one outside both the EU and UK. Most of those will likely still vote SNP but their enthusiasm may be tempered by linking the independence issue too closely to being anti-Brexit.

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5 minutes ago, mormont said:

For three reasons. First, existing support for the SNP may already have hit its peak: the 2015 result for the SNP was so good that it may simply not be possible for them to do better. Second, although the majority in Scotland voted Remain not all of those who did so are so committed to the EU that they'd rather leave the UK than the EU. Quite a few accept that the UK is going to leave the EU and would rather live in that situation than break up the UK. Third, a fair number of SNP supporters voted Leave. They want what they regard as a genuinely independent Scotland, one outside both the EU and UK. Most of those will likely still vote SNP but their enthusiasm may be tempered by linking the independence issue too closely to being anti-Brexit.

Very interesting.

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9 hours ago, Roose Boltons Pet Leech said:

I think Corbyn's best shot in this election was getting into a TV debate - voters would see him unfiltered, and since expectations would be so low (courtesy of a mindbogglingly hostile media), him not drooling would see a bounce. He would also be able to challenge the underlying and deadly narrative that Labour overspending (rather than 3+ decades of neoliberalism) caused the GFC*. As it is, May was very sensible (if cowardly) to avoid a debate.

 


Expectations are so low becuase he is utterly incompetent, and holds views that huge swathes of the electorate are diametrically opposed to.



 

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2 minutes ago, Mathis said:


Expectations are so low becuase he is utterly incompetent, and holds views that huge swathes of the electorate are diametrically opposed to.



 

I thought Corbyn was ousted as the leader of Labour?

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12 minutes ago, Ser Scot A Ellison said:

I thought Corbyn was ousted as the leader of Labour?

No, he's still Leader.

Most MPs would like to be rid of him, but the members kept him.

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1 minute ago, SeanF said:

No, he's still Leader.

Most MPs would like to be rid of him, but the members kept him.

Hence... the "civil war" in Labour?

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