Maltaran

UK Politics Unexpected Election edition

149 posts in this topic

On 24/04/2017 at 10:25 PM, mormont said:

You're making the assumption of a uniform swing, which under the circumstances is highly tempting but may be very wrong. If in fact that Conservative rise is down to other Unionist party voters switching for tactical reasons, for example, that may play out very differently in the constituencies than direct gains from SNP voters. Take Perthshire, for example: there just aren't enough Labour and Lib Dem voters to flip that constituency. If the gains are concentrated in constituencies where the Tories are way behind, it might not help them in the end.

In the 2015 election, was there any measurable quantity of pro-Union people voting for the SNP as a protest against all of the Unionist parties?

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10 minutes ago, Zoë Sumra said:

In the 2015 election, was there any measurable quantity of pro-Union people voting for the SNP as a protest against all of the Unionist parties?

I don't have any research off-hand, but it's fair to assume there must have been some, as the SNP got around 50% of the vote, which is obviously higher than the independence vote in the referendum a year before (and in turn, that 'Yes' vote in the referendum would have included people who voted for other parties in 2015).

So the difference must be down to either people who thought the SNP would do a better job, or voters who came out to vote 'No' in the referendum but stayed home in 2015, and the former seems to me likely to account for quite a lot of the variance.

Where do those voters go this time? Hard to say. Probably not Labour, though, judging by the polls. Some might go Tory. A few even Lib Dem. But most will probably stick with the SNP.

Edited by mormont

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The Scottish turnout in 2010 was 63%, in 2015 it was 71%. So someone was clearly turning up who hadn't at the previous election, they would appear to be Yes voters.

Labours vote share dropped by 17%, the Lib Dems by 11% the Tories by only 1% (they actually won more votes.)

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/shared/election2010/results/region/7.stm

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election/2015/results/scotland

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5 hours ago, Zoë Sumra said:

In the 2015 election, was there any measurable quantity of pro-Union people voting for the SNP as a protest against all of the Unionist parties?

Don't have any numbers but I was one of those people.

Fed up with years of crappy nonsense from the two main parties and with the Lib Dems out of the question the SNP seemed a viable alternative. They were a third option that at the time had a reasonably amount of good domestic policies.

And I know a lot of people in my boat as well. Despite being pro-union we were all fed up with Labour and Conservative rule and their failing so felt an alternative was the only option. I think also that a fair few (myself included) believed that as the independence referendum had passed then that sort of thing would be off the table for a decade or so, leaving a chance to really sort out the country.

Sadly the referendum is on the table again and so who knows where all those extra SNP voters might go. Will we all go back to the old parties, or will we be spread out among other minor parties like Lib Dems, Greens, UKIP (shudder).
A lot of the areas that went SNP in '15 are still pro-union now.

Edited by Lordsteve666

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51 minutes ago, The BlackBear said:

The Scottish turnout in 2010 was 63%, in 2015 it was 71%. So someone was clearly turning up who hadn't at the previous election, they would appear to be Yes voters.

Yeah, and of course famously the turnout in the referendum was almost 85%. So if that additional 22% split into energised Yes voters who came out to vote in 2015 and 'job-done' No voters who didn't, that might help to explain the SNP's larger share of the vote compared to the Yes vote in the referendum. But I don't think it can cover all of it, if only because (as I noted) a portion of Yes voters must have gone on to vote Labour/Lib Dem/Green in 2015.

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3 minutes ago, mormont said:

Yeah, and of course famously the turnout in the referendum was almost 85%. So if that additional 22% split into energised Yes voters who came out to vote in 2015 and 'job-done' No voters who didn't, that might help to explain the SNP's larger share of the vote compared to the Yes vote in the referendum. But I don't think it can cover all of it, if only because (as I noted) a portion of Yes voters must have gone on to vote Labour/Lib Dem/Green in 2015.

Remember that the voting age changed for the referendum though, and stayed that way after it also. That's a lot of extra voters who appeared out of the blue there.

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20 minutes ago, Lordsteve666 said:

Remember that the voting age changed for the referendum though, and stayed that way after it also. That's a lot of extra voters who appeared out of the blue there.

Sure, but that could only have increased turnout overall if 16-17 year olds voted in huge numbers.

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The turnout is a percentage of the electorate, so it takes into account the younger votes.

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8 minutes ago, The BlackBear said:

The turnout is a percentage of the electorate, so it takes into account the younger votes.

True, but i'm wondering if adding all those extra young people caused more people overall to turn out? Would a teenager who suddenly gets to vote persuade his/her parents not to sit on their arses and not vote? Could have been a knock-on affect of letting more people vote, peer pressure pushed some people into actually doing it.

Edited by Lordsteve666

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