UK Politics Unexpected Election edition

[Chaircat Meow]

Is this real, or is it a dream?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rneBbKrVE7A

 

[Werthead]

A full English text of the German article is now available.

 

Quote

 

Juncker left London with great worries. Circles around him now consider failed negotiations to be “more than fifty percent” likely. They still hope that Britain will face the facts soon. They hope that pressures from the economy will lead to a wake up call in government, as a chaotic Brexit could throw the country into an existential crisis. Communicating their worries so openly is part of the strategy –because sometimes the alarm bells have to ring very loud for people to wake up.

 

 

 

[Channel4s-JonSnow]

11 hours ago, Werthead said:

A full English text of the German article is now available.

 

 

Sounds like some gangster boss.

[Pebble thats Stubby]

I'm kinda hoping that right now May's approach right now, is mostly election pandering.

Its us against those undemocratic Brussels bureaucrats.    We must take a hard stance and get back out £350 million  that we could spend on the NHS if only Europe would let us keep bendy bananas.

 

I'm hoping that after the election (I'm resigned to her winning a landslide) she won't have to worry so much about what the general public think, she may be able to take a more reasonable approach.   although she will still have to keep the hard line brexiteers in her own party happy.

 

I'm certain we will never have a soft brexit, but maybe softer than the extreme version being put forward right now.   

[SeanF]

Taking a reasonable approach to negotiations does not mean paying over whatever figure the EU demands (according to the FT, that's now increased to 100 bn Euros).  I would hope and expect that the UK will pay what it is legally obliged to pay (if anything) but no more than that.

Likewise, I can't see any British government agreeing to a demand that the ECJ continue to exercise some form of separate jurisdiction over EU nationals living in the UK.

Now, it may be that these are just outrageous demands at the start of a process of negotiation that will be bargained down to something more reasonable.  If however, they are deal breakers, it's hard to see any deal can be reached.

[Rippounet]

14 hours ago, Werthead said:

A full English text of the German article is now available.

Isn't May using Brexit (and Juncker) to secure a huge Conservative majority in Parliament now?
I feel that this whole exchange (faithfully leaked to us) is comedy more than anything else. May is pretending to be more stupid than she is, and I wonder if Juncker is really buying it or just playing along to help May win the elections, since a stronger British government will find it easier to negotiate, especially if it is perceived as more hardline than it actually is.
Also, I get the feeling the media is helping focus on specific items of the negotiation that aren't necessarily as important as they seem. The point may be to eventually give the impression that Brexit was way harder than it actually was.

[Channel4s-JonSnow]

40 minutes ago, Rippounet said:

Isn't May using Brexit (and Juncker) to secure a huge Conservative majority in Parliament now?
I feel that this whole exchange (faithfully leaked to us) is comedy more than anything else. May is pretending to be more stupid than she is, and I wonder if Juncker is really buying it or just playing along to help May win the elections, since a stronger British government will find it easier to negotiate, especially if it is perceived as more hardline than it actually is.
Also, I get the feeling the media is helping focus on specific items of the negotiation that aren't necessarily as important as they seem. The point may be to eventually give the impression that Brexit was way harder than it actually was.

Does anyone believe that Brexit won't be incredibly difficult?

I do think a stronger government will be slightly more flexible in its negotiations, as it wouldnt have to give into the more hardcore eurosceptic elements of the party. But then Junker would probably prefer to negotiate with a Labour or Lib Dem government that essentially doesn't want to leave at all. Right now I feel like both sides are cutting off their noses to spite their faces.

[mormont]

56 minutes ago, Rippounet said:

Isn't May using Brexit (and Juncker) to secure a huge Conservative majority in Parliament now?
I feel that this whole exchange (faithfully leaked to us) is comedy more than anything else. May is pretending to be more stupid than she is, and I wonder if Juncker is really buying it or just playing along to help May win the elections, since a stronger British government will find it easier to negotiate, especially if it is perceived as more hardline than it actually is.
Also, I get the feeling the media is helping focus on specific items of the negotiation that aren't necessarily as important as they seem. The point may be to eventually give the impression that Brexit was way harder than it actually was.

May certainly isn't stupid, but my clear impression is that she's a modestly talented politician who under normal circumstances would have considered herself lucky to get as far as being Home Secretary. She wound up as PM largely through being the last woman standing after Cameron blew the referendum and the Brexiteers blew the aftermath, and she has managed since then by being blessed with ineffectual and distracted opposition. Brexit is pretty much her first proper test of fitness as a PM. So I find it at least possible that she is genuinely not getting it.

The biggest tragedy of the Brexit mess is that the challenge is so big and the politicians we have to face it appear not to be remotely up to it. This particular batch of UK party leaders are as uninspiring a lot as I have ever seen.

[King Tyrant]

It does seem at the moment that I will have to vote Tory because they represent the least bad choice. It would be so nice to have a political party I could genuinely have faith in ...

Though the constituency where I live has such a huge Tory majority it probably doesn't matter which way I vote anyway lol

[Channel4s-JonSnow]

45 minutes ago, King Tyrant said:

It does seem at the moment that I will have to vote Tory because they represent the least bad choice. It would be so nice to have a political party I could genuinely have faith in ...

Though the constituency where I live has such a huge Tory majority it probably doesn't matter which way I vote anyway lol

I have to agree. Currently its either Vote Tory or Protest Vote for anyone else. This is the least balanced time politically that I can remember.

[A Horse Named Stranger]

3 hours ago, Channel4s-JonSnow said:

I do think a stronger government will be slightly more flexible in its negotiations, as it wouldnt have to give into the more hardcore eurosceptic elements of the party. But then Junker would probably prefer to negotiate with a Labour or Lib Dem government that essentially doesn't want to leave at all. Right now I feel like both sides are cutting off their noses to spite their faces.

Hasn't May boxed herself into that corner? The longer this whole thing goes, the more I think May has bought into the Brexiteers and her own press. And I find it pretty hard to imagine how at the moment there can be a deal. Britain won't get a somewhat favourable (whatever that means) divorce settlement without a substantial financial contribution. I don't think it actually matters whether the final bill is 60, 70, 80, 100bn, or even more, with her strong (wo-)man posturing I think it's politically inconceivable how she can return with that. Keep in mind we are still not talking about future fees for access to the single market. And that's where we will hit the next tough sell for May. Free movement of products is entangled with the free movement of labour, and accepting ECJ rulings (and thus at the very least also EU law) at least with regards to trade disputes.

PM May will have the British tabloids breathing down her neck (and thus also her hardcore brexiteers) quite heavily, so I am somewhat sceptic that she will have more wiggle room with her super majority. The tabloids and her brexiteers MPs will be swift to remind her what she promised. On the other hand, you will have the economy side reminding her, that they somewhat really need access to the single market.

[Loge]

For what it's worth: FAZ now has its own translation online: http://www.faz.net/aktuell/brexit/theresa-may-jean-claude-juncker-and-the-disastrous-brexit-dinner-14998803.html?printPagedArticle=true#pageIndex_2

[mormont]

5 hours ago, Notone said:

Hasn't May boxed herself into that corner?

Pretty much, yeah. The idea that this election is some cunning plan to moderate Brexit is hard for me to credit, if only from the extremely hostile tone May is taking in public about the EU as part of her election campaign. Yesterday it was 'difficult woman', today it's 'the EU is interfering in our election'. If you win a majority after campaigning like this, how do you walk it back?

[williamjm]

21 minutes ago, mormont said:

Pretty much, yeah. The idea that this election is some cunning plan to moderate Brexit is hard for me to credit, if only from the extremely hostile tone May is taking in public about the EU as part of her election campaign. Yesterday it was 'difficult woman', today it's 'the EU is interfering in our election'. If you win a majority after campaigning like this, how do you walk it back?

Maybe she hasn't thought that far ahead yet? It could be her equivalent of David Cameron's plot to promise a EU referendum which in the short term probably helped him with his backbenchers and the UKIP challenge, but turned out to be disastrous for Cameron's political career in the medium term.

[Channel4s-JonSnow]

15 hours ago, Notone said:

Hasn't May boxed herself into that corner? The longer this whole thing goes, the more I think May has bought into the Brexiteers and her own press. And I find it pretty hard to imagine how at the moment there can be a deal. Britain won't get a somewhat favourable (whatever that means) divorce settlement without a substantial financial contribution. I don't think it actually matters whether the final bill is 60, 70, 80, 100bn, or even more, with her strong (wo-)man posturing I think it's politically inconceivable how she can return with that. Keep in mind we are still not talking about future fees for access to the single market. And that's where we will hit the next tough sell for May. Free movement of products is entangled with the free movement of labour, and accepting ECJ rulings (and thus at the very least also EU law) at least with regards to trade disputes.

PM May will have the British tabloids breathing down her neck (and thus also her hardcore brexiteers) quite heavily, so I am somewhat sceptic that she will have more wiggle room with her super majority. The tabloids and her brexiteers MPs will be swift to remind her what she promised. On the other hand, you will have the economy side reminding her, that they somewhat really need access to the single market.

I don't know if she's boxing herself in or just taking a harder position than one she is happy to accept in a negotiation. I'm not going to believe anything about what she believes until after the deal is struck to be honest. Her Hard Brexit is the extreme position and the EU doesn't want that to happen either, but may concede somethings in the talks to stop it happening. I think they will both come back to the centre towards the end. 

It is all posturing though. Both sides think they have the stronger hand, if May at any time concedes she has the weaker hand then she's basically already lost. 

[Isis]

20 hours ago, King Tyrant said:

It does seem at the moment that I will have to vote Tory because they represent the least bad choice. It would be so nice to have a political party I could genuinely have faith in ...

Though the constituency where I live has such a huge Tory majority it probably doesn't matter which way I vote anyway lol

The only way to fight that is to NOT vote Tory though.

The least bad choice? JFC. They are the worst choice for almost everyone in the UK who isn't already massively privileged.

[A Horse Named Stranger]

8 hours ago, Channel4s-JonSnow said:

I don't know if she's boxing herself in or just taking a harder position than one she is happy to accept in a negotiation. I'm not going to believe anything about what she believes until after the deal is struck to be honest. Her Hard Brexit is the extreme position and the EU doesn't want that to happen either, but may concede somethings in the talks to stop it happening. I think they will both come back to the centre towards the end. 

It is all posturing though. Both sides think they have the stronger hand, if May at any time concedes she has the weaker hand then she's basically already lost. 

This whole us against the whole of Europe, and we will beat them stance, somehow reminds me a whole lot of Greece. Granted Britain is bigger, richer and arguably economically more important than the poor Greek. But Greece also only had to deal with the ire of the Euro Zone states, while May appears to pick a fight with the entire EU. So I get the feeling this isn't gonna end well for Britain.

[Channel4s-JonSnow]

6 minutes ago, Notone said:

This whole us against the whole of Europe, and we will beat them stance, somehow reminds me a whole lot of Greece. Granted Britain is bigger, richer and arguably economically more important than the poor Greek. But Greece also only had to deal with the ire of the Euro Zone states, while May appears to pick a fight with the entire EU. So I get the feeling this isn't gonna end well for Britain.

Quite possibly, but then the EU's stance on Greece didn't do much to enhance its reputation. Greece was always in a far weaker position and was completely bullied into doing what the EU wanted.

[Chaircat Meow]

2 hours ago, Notone said:

This whole us against the whole of Europe, and we will beat them stance, somehow reminds me a whole lot of Greece. Granted Britain is bigger, richer and arguably economically more important than the poor Greek. But Greece also only had to deal with the ire of the Euro Zone states, while May appears to pick a fight with the entire EU. So I get the feeling this isn't gonna end well for Britain.

Big deal. Economically the UK is probably larger than all the non-euro states combined in GDP terms if we measure using exchange rates, and probably about 50% of all the non-euro economies in PPP terms.

[Werthead]

13 hours ago, Isis said:

The only way to fight that is to NOT vote Tory though.

The least bad choice? JFC. They are the worst choice for almost everyone in the UK who isn't already massively privileged.

I agree.

I don't think Corbyn is a terrific candidate for leader and am wary of the influence of McConnell. He also has some serious no-hopers around him (as well as people like Starmer, who seem a lot more clued-in). OTOH, his actual policies are, for the most part, hard to disagree with.

One major concern is that the Tories seem to be ignoring the backlash against globalisation that is building and has been seen elsewhere, and by 2022 if they proceed with turning Britain into a regulation-lite tax haven with a crippled, part-privatised NHS and continuing slides in education then they may find a massive backlash against that which delivers power to UKIP or some other disaster. Far-fetched? After the last few years I'm really not sure any more.

Quote

 

Economically the UK is probably larger than all the non-euro states combined in GDP terms if we measure using exchange rates, and probably about 50% of all the non-euro economies in PPP terms.

 

But slightly less than France, considerably less than Germany, and quite a lot less than the EU as a whole.

We have some leverage here, but really nowhere near as much as some like to pretend. We go into this negotiation from a position of weakness, and even Theresa May winning 400 seats won't change that from the perspective of the EU, especially if the SNP does well and the EU can leverage the threat of a hard and unreasonable Brexit snapping the union like a twig.