The Winds of Winter - Small Council

[LordImp]

I think Mace will be regent by the beginning of Winds. Actually i dont think Mace will march on Storms end himself , guess he leaves that to Randyll Tarly. 

Mace will also probably appoint Gormon Tyrell as Grand maester and make the small council Tyrell dominated in general . 

I'm pretty sure that Cersei wins her trial and that she will resume her regency . She will probably make Qyburn both hand and Grand maester .

I think we will see then end of Mace , Margaery and Loras in Winds . My guess is that Margaery looses her trial and this leads Mace to attack the Faith . The sparrows and the Tyrells will slaughter each other . 

[Lord Varys]

On 20.5.2017 at 9:14 PM, LordImp said:

I think Mace will be regent by the beginning of Winds. Actually i dont think Mace will march on Storms end himself , guess he leaves that to Randyll Tarly. 

That is also what I consider the most likely, especially if the fall of Storm's End is going to cause so much uproar at court that Mace feels he has to deal with that before the Margaery situation is resolved. Then it is very likely he might give Tarly half of the Tyrell troops in the city, or perhaps even two thirds, to deal with Aegon and take Storm's End back.

The quick fall of Storm's End to Aegon after Mace besieged it two times unsuccessfully in the past certainly is going to have an impact on the entire Realm, especially in KL.

If the Margaery situation will already be resolved by then it is not unlikely that Mace and Tarly would go both. It is very unlikely Mace would go alone. The man isn't that stupid.

On 20.5.2017 at 9:14 PM, LordImp said:

Mace will also probably appoint Gormon Tyrell as Grand maester and make the small council Tyrell dominated in general.

The Conclave would have to do that, and it might happen, but I doubt the new Grand Maester will arrive at KL while King Tommen still sits the Iron Throne, and the Citadel might actually elect a Targaryen loyalist Grand Maester. But Gormon Tyrell might actually be one such.

On 20.5.2017 at 9:14 PM, LordImp said:

I'm pretty sure that Cersei wins her trial and that she will resume her regency . She will probably make Qyburn both hand and Grand maester.

That is not going to work. Cersei might win her trial (but even that's not clear - an undead abomination might defeat the Faith's champion but we don't know whether the High Septon will accept this) but that won't enable her to retake power unless she kills Mace, Tarly, and the Tyrell men in the city. And she doesn't have the power to pull that off. 

She could sort of profit from a conflict between the Faith and the Tyrells, but only if she lay low in the meantime. And that's not really her style. The murders should make her even more paranoid, not less, and that makes it unlikely she is going to be very calculating and smart in the chapters to come.

It would surprise me very much if she thought she and Tommen had any future in KL. The Faith is out there to kill her, the Tyrells are (and they have an army), Tyrion in the walls is, the Dornishmen might be, and then there is this Aegon guy at Storm's End now.

On 20.5.2017 at 9:14 PM, LordImp said:

I think we will see then end of Mace , Margaery and Loras in Winds . My guess is that Margaery looses her trial and this leads Mace to attack the Faith . The sparrows and the Tyrells will slaughter each other . 

It is not unlikely that there will be violence there, but it could also be connected to Cersei. Cersei is the one the sparrows hate and despise, not so much Margaery. The Faith has no incentive to provoke the Tyrells unduly, especially not while the army is in the city. Attacking the Faith will make Mace and Tommen look very bad but it could still mark the end of the sparrow movement. If the Tyrells butchered the sparrows and Poor Fellows outside the Great Sept and stormed the sept itself, killing the High Septon and the Warrior's Sons in the city in the process, the movement would be basically over. The Faith Militant wouldn't be done (new chapters are forming all across the Realm, it seems) but the Faith would no longer be run by a fundamentalist begging brother High Septon.

And while there are thousands of sparrows in the city there are tens of thousands of Tyrell soldiers in the city. They are not likely to lose a battle there, nor could the sparrows count on the support of the Kingslanders if they actually mistreated/condemned/executed Margaery. She is very popular with the people of the city. And the chances that the sparrows would be in a position to surprise or attack the Tyrells first is also not very likely. Mace and Tarly, on the other hand, could quickly decide to attack the Great Sept without any forewarning. They were even contemplating something like that in the Epilogue.

[LordImp]

Good points @Lord Varys i guess you're right about Cersei and the regency. I actually forgot about the dornishmen , they are bad news for Cersei . Though I dont think Cersei will give up on the Iron throne just yet. Yes she should take Tommen and escape to CR , but im not sure if she actually does that . 

If Cersei and Tommen leaves KL and the Tyrell - Sparrow conflict ends peacefully with Margaery alive , then It would be intersting  how the Tyrells react to Tommens departure from KL. They will be happy about Cersei not being present , but Tommen? He is Margaery's husband and the Tyrells best shot at controlling the throne . If this turns out to be case then will we have a Tyrell army marching on CR? 

Also if Tarly is the one who marches to Storms end with the Tyrell , then there is a big possibility that Tarly joins Aegon . I do think Tarly will choose an adult Targaryen over a young Tommen . If so the Tyrells have lost a big part of their army . 

Anyway I think the golden age of the Tyrells are about to end . 

[Lord Varys]

11 minutes ago, LordImp said:

Good points @Lord Varys i guess you're right about Cersei and the regency. I actually forgot about the dornishmen , they are bad news for Cersei . Though I dont think Cersei will give up on the Iron throne just yet. Yes she should take Tommen and escape to CR , but im not sure if she actually does that.

I think she will try. Because she will also think/realize that Mace and Tarly are going to accuse her of murdering Kevan and Pycelle. She is the perfect scapegoat and from their point of view they might actually believe she did that (they know they didn't, just as Cersei knows she didn't do it). The first thing Mace is likely to do upon learning what happened to Kevan is taking control of the castle, claiming the regency, and taking command of the people who are overseeing Cersei's house arrest. Then she might be able to sort of rely on Qyburn and Ser Robert, but essentially nobody else. There are some red cloaks in the castle, but they are outnumbered by the Tyrells and not likely to die for Cersei.

If she wants to get back to power she has to have an army of her own. And she can only raise an army in the West now. That means she has to go.

Technically Mace might also be able to cancel the trial-by-combat (the murders and he accusing Cersei to be behind those would provide the perfect pretext). If he doesn't do that then Cersei will be allowed to leave the Red Keep for the trial-by-combat and it is most likely going to be then and there that she might make an attempt to escape. Or perhaps immediately afterwards if the trial ends in chaos and confusion.

Cersei could also make an attempt to get out of Maegor's Holdfast by forcing her way into Tommen's chambers (which don't seem to be too far away from her own) since we know that there is a secret escape route in the king's apartment in Maegor's, a tunnel unconnected to the other tunnels. That could be her and Tommen's way out. If they take that one (assuming Cersei is aware that it exists) Tommen could leave with her.

If not, then I'd not be surprised at all if Tommen actually died during Cersei's attempt to rescue him. I'm pretty sure she is going to be directly responsible for his death.

11 minutes ago, LordImp said:

If Cersei and Tommen leaves KL and the Tyrell - Sparrow conflict ends peacefully with Margaery alive , then It would be intersting  how the Tyrells react to Tommens departure from KL. They will be happy about Cersei not being present , but Tommen? He is Margaery's husband and the Tyrells best shot at controlling the throne . If this turns out to be case then will we have a Tyrell army marching on CR?

If Cersei and Tommen got away from KL then Mace would most likely bend the knee to Aegon. He cannot hold the city without a king, and while Tommen lives he cannot crown Myrcella (assuming she gets there and doesn't not end up with Aegon). And if something happened to Margaery in the wake of Cersei's evil plot he would also no longer support her bastard brood. In such a scenario he would himself deliver Tommen, Myrcella, and Cersei to Aegon if he could.

11 minutes ago, LordImp said:

Also if Tarly is the one who marches to Storms end with the Tyrell , then there is a big possibility that Tarly joins Aegon . I do think Tarly will choose an adult Targaryen over a young Tommen . If so the Tyrells have lost a big part of their army.

Tarly isn't the guy to defect to another side. Not unless he is forced. It could be that many levies, knights, and lords in the Tyrell army will turn out to be unwilling to fight against Rhaegar's son. If they refuse to fight Aegon might win the entire battle without all that much of a fight. Then Tarly might have no other choice but to join him.

Another possibility is that he does so after the Golden Company makes short work out of his army. They have elephants and thousands of professional soldiers as well as superior archers.

11 minutes ago, LordImp said:

Anyway I think the golden age of the Tyrells are about to end . 

That isn't all that likely since George has already told us that Willas Tyrell is going to become important, and the Tyrell are so damned numerous. Garlan and Willas are both still fine, and Mace has two married sisters (one of them is Paxter Redwyne's wife), and three uncles and a literal army of cousins (some from those uncles, others from other, even more distant kin). And many of those have crucial positions in the Reach. Mace's uncle Moryn Tyrell (Lazy Leo's father) is Lord Commander of the City Watch of Oldtown (meaning that Oldtown will stick to Highgarden, no matter what), Gormon is essentially already an archmaester, and Garth the Lord Seneschal of Highgarden.

Even if Willas and Garlan are somehow killed (and Mace, Margaery, and Loras, too) there would be Tyrells would could step into their shoes. Tyrells that are already in positions of power and authority.

And the crucial thing is that Willas and Garlan have nothing to do with Mace's adventures in KL. If Mace gets himself killed somehow, Willas could easily enough lead the Reach to Aegon, especially if he realizes that many lords of the Reach want to go in that direction anyway. The chances that many lords of the Reach turn against the Tyrells while Willas and Garlan are doing their best to protect the Reach against the Ironborn and retake the Shields also doesn't make a lot of sense. That would be about as likely as the Northmen turning against the Starks in the middle of a campaign led by multiple Starks to defend the North against an invading wildling army.

And especially Tarly has no reason to believe he will hold more power under Aegon than he already has as Tommen's Master of Laws. He could rise even higher now that Mace is likely to seize the regency. Perhaps he is going to offer the Handship to Tarly? But in any case - sitting on the council of a boy king gives you much more power and wealth than defecting to a king who basically doesn't know you and has already a lot of competent people around he also has to reward.

[Euron Lannister]

i'll combine it with a few plot predictions i have.

First i guess we have the Tyrell council, Mace becomes Regent, a new grand maester will be elected, it could be Mace's uncle, a new master of whisperers will be named, lady nym would be a good match, although the tyrells and martells aren't the best friends, and maybe he will replace Harrys Swift and Jaime lannister.

I think tommen will die some how, lady nym could poison him for example.

in this case the lannister tyrell alliance would break apart and both need a new ally.

We know that Mace comes south towars fAegon, but he could come for an alliance instead of a war and marry Margaery to fAegon.

in this case some fAegon suppoertes will enter the small council, for example Varys as MoW and illirio mopatis as MoC. JonCon could become Regent or Hand, but i doubt he would take that position, knowing he will die soon. i could see him as new Lord commander of the Kingsguard, or advisor.

 

and the Lannisters could team up with either Euron or the Martells which might try to put Myrcella on the throne again, so Lady nym would leave KL. (i doubt Arianne will ally with fAegon, deep in her heart she's a team Myrcella)

[Greywater-Watch]

I tend to rely on Varys. What did he say?

"... Your niece will think the Tyrells had you murdered, mayhaps with the connivance of the Imp. The Tyrells will suspect her. Someone somewhere will find a way to blame the Dornishmen. Doubt, division, and mistrust will eat the very ground beneath your boy king, whilst Aegon raises his banner above Storm's End and the lords of the realm gather around him."

 

[divica]

4 minutes ago, Greywater-Watch said:

I tend to rely on Varys. What did he say?

"... Your niece will think the Tyrells had you murdered, mayhaps with the connivance of the Imp. The Tyrells will suspect her. Someone somewhere will find a way to blame the Dornishmen. Doubt, division, and mistrust will eat the very ground beneath your boy king, whilst Aegon raises his banner above Storm's End and the lords of the realm gather around him."

 

However varys doesn t know that euron will destroy the red wine fleet and make reach tropps to stay in the reach to defend agains a possible IB invasion.

I think aegon's future is with arianne and dorne. And as long as marg dies the tyrells won t even have much reason to opose them and the lannisters are spent...

[Buddhakin]

On 4/19/2017 at 2:54 PM, Renly's Banana said:

Well, don't forget the little tidbit we've learned from Winds. 

  Reveal hidden contents

Mace Tyrell will no longer be in King's Landing. He's marching out to Storm's End. Meaning that he's most likely still Hand, but not really in a Regency role. It also means that Margaery has been cleared of all charges. 

I think with Kevan's death, Cersei will immediately regain most of her old power. She has to, there's no other Lannister in the capital but her. The crimson guards that were serving her uncle would pass to her, so she's not gonna be completely powerless. Mace will remain Hand and he'll have most of the say, but Cersei will regain her role as Regent. The walk took away her dignity and status, but not her last name. She's Tommen's only remaining family, Mace can't dismiss her or shove her into a corner. Nor can he make Margaery his regent. Besides, he'll be too busy to worry about Cersei.

As for the council, it'll most likely become overwhelmingly Tyrell. Master of Ships, Laws, Grand Maester, all Tyrell. Qyburn might come back under Cersei's influence, but it's questionable. I think it'd be funny if Varys randomly showed back up and tried to take his old position. If he gets Cersei on his side, which won't be too hard with the right lies, it's not impossible.    

The only two individuals in the whole series from Westeros that Varys dared confide in were Ned and Tyrion, and even then, he didnt tell them very much, plus Varys is heavily suspected by Cersei to have a hand in her fathers death so I doubt he would reveal himself to her. The Tyrell's are no better than the Lannisters in their ambition for the throne which makes them equally poor candidates for Varys to reveal himself to. He will likely keep hiding, if he were to reveal himself to anyone, I think Qyburn would make for an intriguing confrontation. Qyburn is too smart to remain with Cersei but still not half as smart as Varys and easily bought off since all he does in his spare time is experiment on prisoners. Anyone who truly opposes Cersei's rule will get offed like Kevan and Pycelle. Varys wants Cersei in power. I would almost argue that Mace Tyrell is stupid enough that Varys would allow him to usurp Cersei but Mace listens to his mother and Tarly too much to be able to fuck up to bad as to where Cersei will fuck up just fine since she doesn't listen to anybody but herself. Varys is in complete control of the Red Keep.

[Buddhakin]

On 4/19/2017 at 5:18 PM, Lord Varys said:

Yes, he has. When I was tossing around that idea I was thinking about events after Cersei's trial. I'm inclined to believe that Ser Robert's true identity will be publicly revealed during the trial  - both as Gregor Clegane and an undead monstrosity (say, by his opponent damaging his visor or being able to remove his entire helmet). Then the guy could speak again, assuming Qyburn is just not permitting him to speak because that would give away his true identity.

I expect this to be the deciding factor for Cersei's imminent escape from KL (with or without a living Tommen - he could easily die accidentally during her escape). Ser Robert is likely to win the trial-by-combat (how on earth could he lose?) but if his true identity and nature is revealed the High Septon is most likely not going to accept that. I'm pretty sure the Seven don't look kindly on evil witches who use black magic to rig a holy trial in their favor. And if the High Septon publicly declares Cersei to be guilty despite the fact that her champion won all hell will break lose. Ser Robert might be able to kill dozens of Poor Fellows and Warrior's Sons and enable her escape but Tommen should lose his crown in the process considering that the claim Jaime is the father of Cersei's children is part of the accusations that are to be judged in the trial.

Tyrell's claim to the throne right now rests on Tommens legitimacy. It is a far easier task for the Tyrell's to enforce Tommens claim than to let him go down and make their own claim that would be contested by at least half the realm. The Tyrells have trouble of their own with the Ironborn invading the Reach and the Vale and For me could give them trouble if they contest the claim because the Vale and For me still have fresh armies that haven't been dwindled down by war. The Lannisters wouldn't stand by them and neither would the Riverlands since most of their lands and people are ravaged and the Frey's forces are in the north and will likely die there. Mace needs Tommen. Mace does NOT need Cersei... but Varys does. Varys was willing to kill Kevan Lannister himself to get Cersei back in charge and will continue to do what is necessary to keep her there until he is ready for Aegon to take it from her. Varys makes mistakes sometimes (Ned) but they are seldom enough that they can't be counted on to happen and he is manipulating everything in the Red Keep. Its even worse that everyone thinks Varys has fled because they they are more lax. Out of sight, out of mind, and he is still lurking and listening to everything. I can't wait for this fucking book. I check George's live journal a few times everyday hoping to see a post saying he is finally done with that beast.