rotting sea cow

Harry & Sansa (Littlefinger is delusional)

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I'm not a expert on Sansa & Vale plot, but I caught this last night. I was going to post it in the 'I never noticed that' thread, but maybe it's too important.

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[Ser Lothor] Brune could not be called comely, but he was not ugly either. It is a common face but an honest one. Though he had risen to knighthood, Ser Lothor's birth had been very low......

Brune would be a good match for a bastard girl like Mya Stone, she thought. It might be different if her father had acknowledged her, but he never did

and earlier

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Petyr Baelish was clear across the Vale, though, attending Lord Lyonel Corbray at his wedding. A widower of forty-odd years, and childless, Lord Lyonel was to wed the strapping sixteen-year-old daughter of a rich Gulltown merchant. Petyr had brokered the match himself. The bride's dower was said to be staggering; it had to be, since she was of common birth. Corbray's vassals would be there, with the Lords Waxley, Grafton, Lynderly, some petty lords and landed knights...and Lord Belmore, who had lately reconciled with her father. The other Lords Declarant were expected to shun the nuptials, so Petyr's presence was essential.

Although Lady Waynwood turned out, unexpectedly...

All for Alayne II in AFFC, the same chapter where Littlefinger reveals the betrothal of Alayne Stone (Baelish's bastard daughter) to Harry the Heir.

As we see the whole thing through Sansa's head, we go along with the plan, despite the evidence of the contrary in the same chapter! Littlefinger is delusional here. It's not gonna work. Vale nobility is one of the most conservative in Westeros.

 

 

 

 

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I don't think it needs to work. Littlefinger's M.O. seems to be... I'm tired, so this might be an insane metaphor, but it's as if he's bought up a leaky boat for dirt cheap - no-one else wants it, because it's shit - and the sellers laugh at him, assuming he's stupid and he's definitely gonna drown - but he doesn't actually sail it long enough for it to sink, he just sails it along to the next leaky boat, and he sails that one too, and jumps ship before it sinks, and etc, etc...

Does that make any sense?

He finaegles himself Harrenhal, a useless empty castle with a curse on it that nobody else wants; he uses it to get himself married to Lysa Arryn; he uses that to place himself in charge of the Vale and as custodian of Sweetrobin... he can't possibly expect to stay as Lord of the Vale forever - the Lords Declarant will shove him out eventually. But all he needs is to stick around long enough to do the next phase of his plan.

So with his scheme with Sansa, I wonder if he really actually intends for her to marry Harry - or if he just needs her to be betrothed to him, for a while, possibly as a way of leveraging some other shit.

His whole M.O. could be summed up thus: it doesn't need to work for long - just long enough.

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Isn't it part of the plan to reveal Sansa as the heir to the North? If so, the heir to the Vale and the heir to the North getting married seems like a good match.

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"When Robert dies, Harry the Heir becomes Lord Harrold, Defender of the Vale and Lord of the Eyrie. Jon Arryn's bannermen will never love me, nor our silly, shaking Robert, but they will love their Young Falcon... and when they come together for his wedding, and you come out... clad in a maiden's cloak of white and grey with a direwolf emblazoned on the back... why, every knight in the Vale will pledge his sword to win you back your birthright. So those are your gifts from me, my sweet Sansa... Harry, the Eyrie, and Winterfell."

So Petyr has three things going to keep up the ruse: 1) House Waynwood owes a very large debt to Petyr. I assume he'll broker the dowry to forgive this debt. 2) Alayne is the natural daughter of the Lord Protector. Yes, still a natural daughter, but at least she's not low-born or common. 3) Alayne is smoking hot and using all her tricks to flirt with Harry.

He's just gotta ride on those three things until Sansa can reveal herself.

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It does make sense only if the Waynwoods, like members of House Royce (or perhaps just Myranda and maybe Bronze Yohn), either know or strongly suspect that Alayne might be Sansa Stark.

The whole Alayne cover story doesn't hold up under close inspection (and it isn't supposed to hold up for very long, so the cover can be blown eventually). An obviously highborn (speech, courtesy, behavior) girl the right age who looks "too much like Catelyn" as Lysa Arryn put it (ASOS, Sansa VI) turns up in the Vale out of nowhere, after Sansa Stark has disappeared from King's Landing, as the supposed bastard daughter of her dead mother's foster brother, who is known to have been very close with the Tully sisters as children. Littlefinger himself was apparently able to identify Sansa as Catelyn's daughter at first sight. We know that at least Bronze Yohn is familiar with Catelyn's appearance and has also seen Sansa before when he visited Winterfell. ("Do I know you, girl?", AFFC, Alayne I) Most if not all of the Vale lords would also have known a young Lysa.

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"Is that what passes for courtesy at Heart's Home?" Anya Waynwood's hair was greying and she had crow's-feet around her eyes and loose skin beneath her chin, but there was no mistaking the air of nobility about her. "The girl is young and gently bred, and has suffered enough horrors. Mind your tongue, ser."

(AFFC, Alayne I)

 

How would Lady Anya know that Alayne is gently bred and especially what horrors she has suffered? The only "horror" in "Alayne's" life Lady Anya would know about would be watching Lysa being pushed out the Moon Door.

Quote

 

"Why must mules be so bony and ill-tempered? Mya does not feed them enough. A nice fat mule would be more comfortable to ride. There's a new High Septon, did you know? Oh, and the Night's Watch has a boy commander, some bastard son of Eddard Stark's."

"Jon Snow?" she blurted out, surprised.

"Snow? Yes, it would be Snow, I suppose."

(AFFC, Alayne II)

 

Jon being the new LC seems a rather odd thing for Myranda to mention to Alayne out of nowhere. And how likely is it that a bastard girl raised by the Faith in Gulltown would know the name of Eddard Stark's bastard son, and would show much of a reaction to him being mentioned?

The North also has its own accent:

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Another of the outlaws stepped forward, a younger man in a greasy sheepskin jerkin. In his hand was Oathkeeper. "This says it is." His voice was frosted with the accents of the north.

(AFFC, Brienne VIII)

 

 

Spoiler

In the Alayne I TWOW spoiler chapter, Harry's behavior towards Alayne changes radically from openly despising her when they first meet to courteously asking her to dance at the feast, which we can assume stems from Lady Any Waynwood talking to him.

 

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The real issue here is that if Robert dies and Harry becomes heir, LF looses all power in the Vale.  That 1 fact makes me not understand what the hell LF's plan is.  Part of me thinks this is all cover so he can kill Harry without having the blame put on him "why would I kill the man my daughter was betrothed to?!?"  is all he would have to say.

The only long term plan I could see him having was for her to have Harrys baby, and then off both Harry and Robert, putting Sansa into the same position that Lysa was in at the start of the books.  But LF will never rule the Vale in the pure sense of him being Lord of the Eyrie, he is already Lord Paramount of the Riverlands so the only position higher up is King.  That go's along with what @ilyrioPoMarties said.  Riding it until he can make his play for the Crown.  Perhaps he simply wants the Vale, and North in his debt so he has the backing of 3 kingdoms.

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57 minutes ago, aryagonnakill#2 said:

The real issue here is that if Robert dies and Harry becomes heir, LF looses all power in the Vale.  That 1 fact makes me not understand what the hell LF's plan is.  Part of me thinks this is all cover so he can kill Harry without having the blame put on him "why would I kill the man my daughter was betrothed to?!?"  is all he would have to say.

The only long term plan I could see him having was for her to have Harrys baby, and then off both Harry and Robert, putting Sansa into the same position that Lysa was in at the start of the books.  But LF will never rule the Vale in the pure sense of him being Lord of the Eyrie, he is already Lord Paramount of the Riverlands so the only position higher up is King.  That go's along with what @ilyrioPoMarties said.  Riding it until he can make his play for the Crown.  Perhaps he simply wants the Vale, and North in his debt so he has the backing of 3 kingdoms.

If LF is indeed playing the long game and aiming high, I think his 10-step plan could be: 

1) Marry Harry and Sansa

2) Murder Sweetrobin

3) Get Harry to lead a successful campaign to take Winterfell for Sansa

4) Riding that hype wave, crown Harry as King in North and Vale

5) Take Riverrun in Sansa's name to add to their kingdom

6) Wait till Sansa and Harry have a kid

7) Murder Harry

8) Marry Sansa

9) Be King Regent

10) Annex other kingdoms via conquest or alliances

But yeah, something about the plot to marry Sansa to Harry seems a bit iffy to me. If LF's serious about it, he's putting to much faith in Harry's potential gratitude and Sansa's loyalty. In any case he'd be relinquishing all his political power in the Vale and giving it to Sansa and Harry, which doesn't sound like a typical LF move.

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If LF’s goal is to have Sansa to himself in some capacity, then Harry is a dangerous choice.

He’s kind of a jerk about his bastards, but he’s a bit too close to Sansa’s old type, and Sansa didn’t let go of her idealization of Joff until backed into a corner. I'm also fairly convinced that LF told Joff to beat Sansa just so that she'd come to see LF as more of a savior at best, and at worse a lesser evil. If she and Harry get on, and Harry suddenly dies mysteriously, of course Sansa will suspect LF first. I highly doubt that LF knows that her fantasies run more Houndish these days.

It would make more sense to marry Sansa to someone she wouldn't mind being parted from, especially if LF is intent on marrying her himself, and not just having her on the side. Lyn Corbray would make more sense here. He favors men, isn’t exactly charming, and is a more believable KiTN than Harry. He’s also part Stark. Sansa would be much more comfortable parting with Lyn and he’s less competition for LF. I don’t think LF really thinks Harry/Sansa would sell well in the North. I just don't know where Lyn falls relative to the Vale succession if both Robert and Harry die.

Some pieces are definitely missing because it's not making sense.

 

Edited by Lollygag

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2 hours ago, Good Guy Garlan said:

If LF is indeed playing the long game and aiming high, I think his 10-step plan could be: 

1) Marry Harry and Sansa

2) Murder Sweetrobin

3) Get Harry to lead a successful campaign to take Winterfell for Sansa

4) Riding that hype wave, crown Harry as King in North and Vale

5) Take Riverrun in Sansa's name to add to their kingdom

6) Wait till Sansa and Harry have a kid

7) Murder Harry

8) Marry Sansa

9) Be King Regent

10) Annex other kingdoms via conquest or alliances

But yeah, something about the plot to marry Sansa to Harry seems a bit iffy to me. If LF's serious about it, he's putting to much faith in Harry's potential gratitude and Sansa's loyalty. In any case he'd be relinquishing all his political power in the Vale and giving it to Sansa and Harry, which doesn't sound like a typical LF move.

Yup, if Sansa married Harry and had a kid, she would be in the same position Lysa was at the start of the series, should anything tragic befall Harry. Perhaps LF thinks he can control her and remain the de facto head of the Vale in all but name.

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3 hours ago, aryagonnakill#2 said:

The real issue here is that if Robert dies and Harry becomes heir, LF looses all power in the Vale.  That 1 fact makes me not understand what the hell LF's plan is.  Part of me thinks this is all cover so he can kill Harry without having the blame put on him "why would I kill the man my daughter was betrothed to?!?"  is all he would have to say.

There are two reasons that make sense to me for LF's scheming to marry Sansa to Harry. The first is that winter is coming.

Sansa was pretty isolated up at the Eyrie, with no way to escape (because it's so difficult to get down from there) and nobody to cultivate who has any kind of power who help her. She was so isolated, in fact, that Littlefinger felt confident enough to leave her alone there for periods of time.

But with winter arriving, everyone needs to be brought down into the valley and there Sansa will have lots of contact with other people: the nobility and lords of the Vale, who congregate in the castles lower down. This leads to the second reason why LF is dangling Harry in front of Sansa.

Due to Sansa having a lot more people around her, LF strongly needs her to remain loyal to and dependent upon him. He can't have her cultivate relationships with other lords who might figure out (or be told by her) who she really is, who she could then turn to for help in any way. So he's trying to bind her more closely to him, by promising her what he thinks she wants: a handsome lord and her birthright, provided she sticks with him and his plans, that is. It's only so she might be less tempted to extricate herself from him, not because he is sincere in wanting her and Harry to marry.

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I think LF has passed the information that Alayne is Sansa to Anya Waynwood to get this betrothal or that he will legitimize Alayne and make her his heir to the Riverlands so that Harry can claim her lands. 

I believe his goal is to create chaos by killing Harry very early to strip Robert of his heir. LF remains Lord Protector and when Robert dies there will be a succesion crisis.The betrothal was an alibi for Harry's murder.

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11 hours ago, rotting sea cow said:

I'm not a expert on Sansa & Vale plot, but I caught this last night. I was going to post it in the 'I never noticed that' thread, but maybe it's too important.

and earlier

Although Lady Waynwood turned out, unexpectedly...

All for Alayne II in AFFC, the same chapter where Littlefinger reveals the betrothal of Alayne Stone (Baelish's bastard daughter) to Harry the Heir.

As we see the whole thing through Sansa's head, we go along with the plan, despite the evidence of the contrary in the same chapter! Littlefinger is delusional here. It's not gonna work. Vale nobility is one of the most conservative in Westeros.

I think you're missing something here. Alayne is a noble-born bastard, and acknowledged by her father. Mya is a noble-born bastard who was not acknowledged. Lord Lyonel's bride is common-born but not a bastard.

Alayne is definitely above Mya, and slightly above the new Lady Corbray. If Littlefinger has his "daughter" legitimized, she would likely inherit everything he has, which makes her both noble-born and obscenely wealthy. Thus Alayne is potentially the most eligible bachelorette in the Vale.

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7 hours ago, bilplat said:

Isn't it part of the plan to reveal Sansa as the heir to the North? If so, the heir to the Vale and the heir to the North getting married seems like a good match.

Yes but revealing her stops the wedding. Sansa can't get married because she's still legally married to Tyrion. She has to get an annulment first. Hence the illustrious @Illyrio Mo'Parties saying the plan doesn't need to work so much as work for "long enough."

2 hours ago, Endymion I Targaryen said:

I think LF has passed the information that Alayne is Sansa to Anya Waynwood to get this betrothal or that he will legitimize Alayne and make her his heir to the Riverlands so that Harry can claim her lands. 

I believe his goal is to create chaos by killing Harry very early to strip Robert of his heir. LF remains Lord Protector and when Robert dies there will be a succesion crisis.The betrothal was an alibi for Harry's murder.

The betrothal is a ruse to get Harry around Sansa so he will fall in love with her and when she's revealed to be of equal/better birth, to vow to defend her until his dying breath. Sweetrobin may be the Lord of the Vale in name, but the warriors of the region will follow Harry. If Sansa captures him, she has the Vale. It makes it a heck of a lot harder for Cersei to move against her. And once Cersei is gone, Sansa can go to KL, proclaim her innocence, have a trial (of Seven) to clear her name, and get her marriage to Tyrion annulled. 

Once she's a free woman, she'll be the most sought-after prize in Westeros, and can choose Harry (if he's still living after fighting for her in her trial) or someone else. No matter who she marries, LF expects she will always be grateful to him for saving her life and teaching her how to play the game. Harry and the Vale are small potatoes. LF is aiming higher. Being little Lord Arryn's Lord Protector is just a stepping stone.

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What bothers me about Sansa and LF in the Vale is this.

Sansa is the wife of Tyrion and a fugitive in hiding because she is thought to be involved in King Joffrey’s death. I'm thinking LF is taking advantage/playing Sansa.

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A Feast for Crows - Alayne II   "A marriage . . ." Her throat tightened. She did not want to wed again, not now, perhaps not ever. "I do not . . . I cannot marry. Father, I . . ." Alayne looked to the door, to make certain it was closed. "I am married," she whispered. "You know." Petyr put a finger to her lips to silence her. "The dwarf wed Ned Stark's daughter, not mine. Be that as it may. This is only a betrothal. The marriage must needs wait until Cersei is done and Sansa's safely widowed. And you must meet the boy and win his approval. Lady Waynwood will not make him marry against his will, she was quite firm on that."

 

LF spins this marvelous idea to Sansa (13 years of age ?) about being revealed at her & Harry’s wedding and the Vale lords bowing down to Eddard Starks daughter.

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A Feast for Crows - Alayne II  Her eyes widened. "He is not Lady Waynwood's heir. He's Robert's heir. If Robert were to die . . ."  Petyr arched an eyebrow. "When Robert dies. Our poor brave Sweetrobin is such a sickly boy, it is only a matter of time. When Robert dies, Harry the Heir becomes Lord Harrold, Defender of the Vale and Lord of the Eyrie. Jon Arryn's bannermen will never love me, nor our silly, shaking Robert, but they will love their Young Falcon . . . and when they come together for his wedding, and you come out with your long auburn hair, clad in a maiden's cloak of white and grey with a direwolf emblazoned on the back . . . why, every knight in the Vale will pledge his sword to win you back your birthright. So those are your gifts from me, my sweet Sansa . . . Harry, the Eyrie, and Winterfell. That's worth another kiss now, don't you think?"

Sansa is married and a fugitive. The Iron Throne, the seat of power in Westeros is held by the Lannisters who want Sansa and Tyrion for the death of the King. Would the Vale lords defy the King/Throne?

The Mad Mouse has arrived at Sansa’s location. Somehow he got information about Sansa’s whereabouts? Brienne was wandering around looking for the girl. Brienne gets part of her face bitten off, ends up at LSH's place, gets partially hanged, shouts out a word and ends up seeking out Jaime.

It doesn’t make sense. What's LF up to? If the Lannister's lose the Throne/Crown LF has no clout. Revealing Sansa to the Vale lords would cause a dilemma. They would have to go against the Throne or deliver Sansa to the Crown.

It will be interesting to read how this works out.

 

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LF may be accounting for the Lannisters falling to Aegon & Co. He says that Cersei is crashing faster than he anticipated, and depending on what he knows of Varys' interests, might be expecting the Lannisters to fall and planning accordingly.

I highly doubt LF would allow a marriage to Aegon, as this cedes too much to Varys, but LF and Varys have been known to ride each other's coattails before when it was in their mutual interest.

The Targs have Arryn blood. Where do Aegon, Dany, and Jon stand as Arryn heirs should Harry and Robert be dead?

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The Lannister army was weakened in the war. Also, Cersei's incompetence doesn't exactly reassure loyalty. Plus, it sounds like LF could take her out if he needed to. He hints as much to Sansa.

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3 hours ago, Clegane'sPup said:

Sansa is married and a fugitive. The Iron Throne, the seat of power in Westeros is held by the Lannisters who want Sansa and Tyrion for the death of the King. Would the Vale lords defy the King/Throne?

For the Lady of the Vale? Duh.

They'd have thrown LF out on his arse too had he not had SR behind the strongest defensive position in Westeros. And when the IT wrote to protest that who they believe to be their man was the rightful regent they'd have told them to get rooted.

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LF desires the things that were denied to him in his youth: power, wealth, and The Girl. In Sansa, he's found a stand-in for Catelyn, so I wonder if Harry the Heir is his Brandon Stark? If that's the case, I can't imagine him planning for a scenario in which The Jock gets The Girl again, even if it's temporary. He'd want Harry/Brandon to lose Sansa/Catelyn to him this time around, and he'd want first crack at that flower.

Also, would he really risk giving Sansa all that power? He must know that the more power Sansa has, independent of him, the more risk of her straying, even with all her grooming.

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12 hours ago, The Ned's Little Girl said:

[snip]

Good call!

11 hours ago, Endymion I Targaryen said:

I believe his goal is to create chaos by killing Harry very early to strip Robert of his heir. LF remains Lord Protector and when Robert dies there will be a succesion crisis.The betrothal was an alibi for Harry's murder.

That's interesting, because someone had an idea that'd happen based on the sample chapter:

Spoiler

Littlefinger gives everybody at the tourney (or whatever it is) a shiny new dagger, and the theory was that these were Chekov's daggers, and that Harry was gonna get a good solid Ides of Marching, and everybody would be a suspect since everybody had the same dagger. Or something.

9 hours ago, Lady Blizzardborn said:

I think you're missing something here. Alayne is a noble-born bastard, and acknowledged by her father. Mya is a noble-born bastard who was not acknowledged. Lord Lyonel's bride is common-born but not a bastard.

Alayne is definitely above Mya, and slightly above the new Lady Corbray. If Littlefinger has his "daughter" legitimized, she would likely inherit everything he has, which makes her both noble-born and obscenely wealthy. Thus Alayne is potentially the most eligible bachelorette in the Vale.

True, although I would quibble that legitimised bastards are still frowned upon by the nobility.

9 hours ago, Clegane'sPup said:

It doesn’t make sense. What's LF up to? If the Lannister's lose the Throne/Crown LF has no clout.

Excellent point, which makes you wonder why he killed Joffrey. (And maybe he didn't, or did so accidentally, but that's by the by.) I suppose he didn't expect Tywin to die and Cersei to be left in charge, nor Cersei to be quite so useless.

I also suppose he has a newer, more powerful patron in the Tyrells, except that were I the Tyrells, I'd (a) figure out pretty quickly that Littlefinger's new bastard daughter was really Sansa, and (b) I'd have him killed even quicker. Why would they leave Littlefinger alive?

9 minutes ago, Hodor the Articulate said:

LF desires the things that were denied to him in his youth: power, wealth, and The Girl.

In Westeros, first you get the money, then you get the power, then you get the women

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