Harry & Sansa (Littlefinger is delusional)

[Lord Varys]

11 hours ago, Prof. Cecily said:

I mention  Oldtown because of the Citadel, rather than a strategic understanding of how to take KL.

There is actually no internal hint in the story that Euron has any interest in anything at Oldtown, Citadel or not. He wanted to go straight to Slaver's Bay from the Shield Islands. Those were just supposed to be a short stop to get the Ironborn in line. It didn't work as planned, so the battle against the Redwynes has to take place next.

Now, once Euron decisively wins that battle he may actually win Oldtown in the process. Without the Redwyne fleet the Hightowers and their bannermen will effectively lose their coasts to the Ironborn for good. They cannot hope to defeat them without ships, and it would take a long time to build a fleet strong enough to challenge Euron at sea - and that would not going to work, anyway, if the man can use powerful and unnatural magics against his enemies.

The Hightowers have always been pragmatic. They bend the knee when they have to. If Euron is smart he will use the carrot after he used his sorcerer stick to destroy the Redwyne fleet. If he offers Lord Leyton favorable terms and essentially a continuation of business as usual in exchange for a regular tribute the Hightowers are very likely to bend the knee. They can either do that or see how they lose the basis of their wealth. Oldtown is a merchant city, and with the Ironborn controlling the sea around Oldtown nobody is going to dare come there to trade.

11 hours ago, Prof. Cecily said:

Oh, my! Your speculations will enliven my afternoon considerably.

But...dragons?

People can jump ship again, of course. But nobody is going to care about Dany's dragons while they believe Dany was killed in Daznak's Pit. And this story will travel west in the near future. People will rediscover their allegiance to Daenerys later on when she actually comes to Westeros with an army but not while she is allegedly dead.

And her dragons are just stories at this point, just stories. And they are small dragons. That should not matter when people see them because everybody knows that dragons are a sign of real kingship, etc. but they are still far away.

[Prof. Cecily]

4 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

There is actually no internal hint in the story that Euron has any interest in anything at Oldtown, Citadel or not. He wanted to go straight to Slaver's Bay from the Shield Islands. Those were just supposed to be a short stop to get the Ironborn in line. It didn't work as planned, so the battle against the Redwynes has to take place next.

Very true, @Lord Varys. Thank you for the clarification. 

4 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

The Hightowers have always been pragmatic. They bend the knee when they have to. If Euron is smart he will use the carrot after he used his sorcerer stick to destroy the Redwyne fleet. If he offers Lord Leyton favorable terms and essentially a continuation of business as usual in exchange for a regular tribute the Hightowers are very likely to bend the knee. They can either do that or see how they lose the basis of their wealth. Oldtown is a merchant city, and with the Ironborn controlling the sea around Oldtown nobody is going to dare come there to trade.

This seems most reasonable, though it would depend on the grip Euron has on his Ironborn- would they be able to resist a reaving in the Reach?

 

4 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

But nobody is going to care about Dany's dragons while they believe Dany was killed in Daznak's Pit. And this story will travel west in the near future. People will rediscover their allegiance to Daenerys later on when she actually comes to Westeros with an army but not while she is allegedly dead.

And her dragons are just stories at this point, just stories. And they are small dragons. That should not matter when people see them because everybody knows that dragons are a sign of real kingship, etc. but they are still far away.

Of course.

I've allowed my speculation to be coloured by the HBO production.

Again, thank you for such a clear explanation of things!

Quote

...everybody knows that dragons are a sign of real kingship, etc. but they are still far away

 

[Lord Varys]

5 hours ago, Prof. Cecily said:

Very true, @Lord Varys. Thank you for the clarification. 

And if he wanted anything in the Citadel a much better and easier way to get it would be to send an agent into the city to fetch it for him. Like the person(s) who hired Jaqen already did. Whoever is behind him is likely not Euron, though.

5 hours ago, Prof. Cecily said:

This seems most reasonable, though it would depend on the grip Euron has on his Ironborn- would they be able to resist a reaving in the Reach?

Well, we have to first ask ourselves how the battle against the Redwynes is going to play out. If Euron is smart he will allow a small portion of the enemy ships (those Hightowers who are joining the fight, especially) to get away to spread the tales of his victory and how he won it. Magic is well and good but even better should be the terror the stories of a sorcerer-king controlling the winds (and whatever is going to use to crush the Redwynes) should be able to set in the hearts of the people of Westeros.

If credible stories from many sources reach the lords of southern coasts of the Reach they all - not just the Hightowers - should consider bending the knee to this man rather than oppose him. Those lords farther in land away from the coast might be less inclined to give in but we can expect that the Reach will split between a faction willing to accept Ironborn dominance and a faction who is going to continue to resist.

Euron's goal is the Iron Throne. He cannot get that if he treats everybody as his enemy. But showing what he can do if people resist or attack him is precisely the same kind of strategy Aegon the Conqueror used when he conquered Westeros. And people will understand that language. Paxter Redwyne will be Euron's Harren the Black and his fleet is going to play the role of Harrenhal. The Hightowers could very well play the roles of the Tullys there.

[deja vu]

@Prof. Cecily You see a little Scarlett O'Hara in Sansa. Yes, and in Dany too. All three survive by living in the moment, not looking back. Dany has a literary cue ("If I look back, I'm lost.")  So does Scarlett ("I can't think about that now " or "I'll think about that tomorrow." ). Sansa doesn't have a cue, but she too can't look back. In contrast (to quote myself from a previous post, below), The characters that look back (Jeyne Poole, for example, and Scarlett's sisters) pay a heavy price.

 

[Prof. Cecily]

18 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

...if he wanted anything in the Citadel a much better and easier way to get it would be to send an agent into the city to fetch it for him. Like the person(s) who hired Jaqen already did. Whoever is behind him is likely not Euron, though.

Why not? Euron was my first thought as a possible employer as that would seem in line with someone boosting their powers, but I'm open to learning otherwise. I've yet to read all the released chapters from TWOW, perhaps there's something there that I'm not seeing at the moment.

 

 

18 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

Euron's goal is the Iron Throne. He cannot get that if he treats everybody as his enemy. But showing what he can do if people resist or attack him is precisely the same kind of strategy Aegon the Conqueror used when he conquered Westeros. And people will understand that language. Paxter Redwyne will be Euron's Harren the Black and his fleet is going to play the role of Harrenhal. The Hightowers could very well play the roles of the Tullys there.

 That's well-thought out, @Lord Varys.

Winter is here, however. Is it possible we'll have a replay of the Armada Invencible? With our Cersei as Elizabeth I?

 

@deja vu, I'm rereading the thread now. My initial reactions to the Alayne chapter from TWOW are still very fresh and as we all know, it take years to tread the labyrinth of GRRM's writing in any and every chapter. Off to read!

ETA I enjoyed reading your post- it's good to know I'm not the only one who sees references and allusions to Margaret Mitchell's novel in ASOIAF! 

[BRANDON GREYSTARK]

On ‎4‎/‎21‎/‎2017 at 6:27 AM, rotting sea cow said:

I'm not a expert on Sansa & Vale plot, but I caught this last night. I was going to post it in the 'I never noticed that' thread, but maybe it's too important.

and earlier

Although Lady Waynwood turned out, unexpectedly...

All for Alayne II in AFFC, the same chapter where Littlefinger reveals the betrothal of Alayne Stone (Baelish's bastard daughter) to Harry the Heir.

As we see the whole thing through Sansa's head, we go along with the plan, despite the evidence of the contrary in the same chapter! Littlefinger is delusional here. It's not gonna work. Vale nobility is one of the most conservative in Westeros.

 

 

 

 

You are sooo right ., Petyr Baelish is delusional .Harry and little Robert  would be allowed to bed her , being a bastard never wed her .

[Free Northman Reborn]

11 minutes ago, BRANDON GREYSTARK said:

You are sooo right ., Petyr Baelish is delusional .Harry and little Robert  would be allowed to bed her , being a bastard never wed her .

Well truth be told, I think it is another example of Martin forcing plot developments that make no sense, but disguising it with some superficial human vice or character weakness, to try and make it look realistic. In this case the Waynwood's supposedly being swayed by Littlefinger's money to marry of the 2nd in line to the entire Vale to a petty lord's bastard born daughter.

Yeah right.

 

[Lord Varys]

5 hours ago, Prof. Cecily said:

Why not? Euron was my first thought as a possible employer as that would seem in line with someone boosting their powers, but I'm open to learning otherwise. I've yet to read all the released chapters from TWOW, perhaps there's something there that I'm not seeing at the moment.

Because Jaqen was first stuck in the black cells of KL, suggesting he had something to do there. The way from Braavos to Oldtown goes by ship not necessary by ways of KL (and even if you stop there you usually don't end up in the black cells). In addition, there is the problem that Euron's grand plan most likely only began to take form by the time he captured Pyat Pree and the other sorcerers early on in ASoS. Prior to that he had not idea about the existence of the dragons.

And quite frankly, the thing Jaqen most likely wants is that secret book 'Blood and Fire or The Death of the Dragons' Tyrion mentioned in ADwD. This is most likely a book detailing how you can kill dragons, and nothing indicates Euron wants to kill Dany's dragons. He wants to ride one of them and marry Daenerys.

Quote

That's well-thought out, @Lord Varys.

Winter is here, however. Is it possible we'll have a replay of the Armada Invencible? With our Cersei as Elizabeth I?

Cersei is more likely to team up with Euron. They have common enemies both in Aegon and Daenerys (if she is not going to marry Euron) as well as in the Tyrells and other Westerosi people.

4 hours ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

Well truth be told, I think it is another example of Martin forcing plot developments that make no sense, but disguising it with some superficial human vice or character weakness, to try and make it look realistic. In this case the Waynwood's supposedly being swayed by Littlefinger's money to marry of the 2nd in line to the entire Vale to a petty lord's bastard born daughter.

Yeah right.

It is not Littlefinger's money it is the Waynwoods lack thereof and Littlefinger controlling the debts the house owed originally to various other people and institutions. Being indebted is a bad thing in a feudal society. You usually lose everything if you can't repay the money you owe. The Waynwoods won't be enslaved, of course, but they could very well be forced to give up ancient heirlooms, other movable valuables, tracts of land, and even their castle(s). That would be the end of them as a noble house.

Just look at the Westerlings. Once their were a proud and ancient line but they are impoverished and whatever prestige they still had due to their ancient lineage they lost when Lord Gawen Westerling married a merchant's daughter who was descended from a foreign witch.

The situation of the Waynwoonds isn't as dire as of yet but if Littlefinger actually used the power the debts gave him over the Waynwoods it could get very ugly for them.

In exchange most if not all of the debts House Waynwood owes now to Littlefinger will be forgiven. And it would be fool who doesn't take such an offer just as Lord Nestor Royce would have been a fool not to accept the Gates of the Moon from Littlefinger. Lady Anya has a responsibility to her house and her heirs.

And as I've laid out already Harrold Hardyng is basically a nobody of modest birth. He is a Hardyng not a Waynwood or an Arryn. If he was Elbert Arryn's son rather than some obscure descendant through the female line it would be very likely that this arrangement would not have happened. But Harry is just the heir presumptive to the Vale. He will only rise high if Lord Robert dies (prematurely) and leaves no heirs of his own body. If Robert lives to old age and fathers an army of children he will remain and die in obscurity unless his lordly Arryn cousin grants him some favors. Up until Jon Arryn's death two years ago there was even a chance that Lysa would give her lordly husband another potential heir.

If Lord Lyonel Corbray can marry a rich merchant's daughter then the son of a landed knight can very well also marry the bastard of the Lord of Harrenhal (who also happens to be the Lord Protector of the Vale and the stepfather of Lord Arryn himself). Should Harry ever become Lord of the Vale himself he might not be happy with such a marriage. But since Alayne Stone is, in fact, not a bastard but Sansa Stark such problems should actually never arise.

[Prof. Cecily]

30 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

Because Jaqen was first stuck in the black cells of KL, suggesting he had something to do there. The way from Braavos to Oldtown goes by ship not necessary by ways of KL (and even if you stop there you usually don't end up in the black cells). In addition, there is the problem that Euron's grand plan most likely only began to take form by the time he captured Pyat Pree and the other sorcerers early on in ASoS. Prior to that he had not idea about the existence of the dragons.

And quite frankly, the thing Jaqen most likely wants is that secret book 'Blood and Fire or The Death of the Dragons' Tyrion mentioned in ADwD. This is most likely a book detailing how you can kill dragons, and nothing indicates Euron wants to kill Dany's dragons. He wants to ride one of them and marry Daenerys.

Quite right about the black cells. Any ideas about what he was up to there?

Euron might want to know just what those techniques are,or alternatively, prevent them from being used by others. It's hard to know without access to more data.

31 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

Cersei is more likely to team up with Euron. They have common enemies both in Aegon and Daenerys (if she is not going to marry Euron) as well as in the Tyrells and other Westerosi people.

A good point.  Thanks for your answers- your posts always give me food for thought.

[The Ned's Little Girl]

I'm not seeing how the discussion of the Citadel or Jaqen or Euron relates to Harry and Sansa. Perhaps this could be moved to a different topic?

 

[Angel Eyes]

I personally think that Harry will be pretty bad to Sansa, if the show gives us any indication.

[Morgana Lannister]

I find this topic fascinating because it involves some of my favourite characters (good and not so gool lol).  I have to say that I will comment further when I have read the whole thread but two pages so far is intense lol.

Okay, although about Sansa and Harry; this really is about LF.

His motivation might be many things but it ain't chaos for the sake of it in my book.  He quotes "chaos" to avoid answering questions "me thinks."  Nothing in his way of thinking is chaotic.  On the contrary, he would make a great  stoke broker analyst today if he wasn't so over-confident...  If by chaos he means discord (Lannister-v-Stark) got to give him that lol but in overall politics, chaos is neither his vehicle nor his aim.  An excuse more likely... (Will expand on this).

Going back to the modern life approach to understanding him.  His original motivation: "low born" but still nobility and not just that, wanting to either:  get to the top to get the girl, or getting the girl to go to the top lol  Being a hormonal teen with songs of love and chivalry in his heart, crashed by his Tully Lord.  Reminds me awfully of a second cousin of my mother's up in the Pyrenees in Northern Spain/Southern France.  My mother's family were farmers, not overly rich, but not poor and not without honor in the mind of villagers  (nothing to say btw that LF's family were either) whereas this cousin came from a branch who had stolen and so on, albeit in times of war....  This cousin came from a branch which, probably due to my own ancestors mean ways lol were reduced to stealing food at times and was considered thoroughly dishonorable lol.  The guy in question raised to be a member of Parliament (not the same as member of the Small Council - which is more like Minister) and became a millionaire but allegedly not very honorably in his methods....  I can feel LF there!  I even sympathize on that point!

Does he still want Cat? Possible... Her daughter in his stead... more complex to my mind but possible indeed.

Possibly in another post I would outline how I would do if if I were George, but I am not lol

Okay, the situation in the Vale and elsewhere.

The one that he keeps targeting, to my mind is Tyrion.  Why??? After Ty got his old job. yeap, he will figure out your fiddling.... but even before he tried to frame Tyrion...  My tin-foil is that Tyrion has something big on Petyr, even if Tyrion is not aware of it yet.  

But the plot thickens...Tyrion accidentally made "friends" in the Vale, not high born at all but hey lol when he was fighting Robb. Sansa may or may not know about this.... I don't like plots off screen but this could be important, especially knowing that she knows Baelish is hoarding food when everyone starves... (when Winter comes).

Now, Petyr hedges his bets, as any good futures expert would... He considers the possibility that Robin lives, that Robin dies, that Harry lives, or the other way around  ; there is a plan Z for every possible outcome.  I believe all of you were right and it is possible but LF has "all that" into account.  If A fails, I kill B or ally with C....

Okay, if Robin dies, he marries her to Harry, they have a child, then when Cersei supplanted by FAegon time to go, disclose her identity...

BTW, I strongly believe most of the Lord Declarants and even Harry know her identity.  Harry's  reaction to her as a bastard felt over-done!   but I could be wrong.  I think, a number of characters here are waiting...

If Robin doesn't die of natural causes, LF can kill him, as it appears to be doing slowly in the books.  Now, I think Sansa will not allow that and everything will go to pot because shew will have a conscience check.  Also, LF is letting her have a sort of "fancy" army for Robin but if Sansa saves his life she will have eternal gratitute from Robin.  Now, if the Mad Mouse is indeed a spy for Varys (not sure on that one) Varys ,in my mind, (even framed Tyrion so that he could be "head-hunted" yeah, for Dany or Aegon or Dany all the way whilst conning Illyrio???)....  This is my preferred option but wishful thinking on my part; Sansa via mad Mouse, and Tyrion get LF.  They don't kill him, they use him!!! about right for what he had done to them both lol!  Myranda Royce would have to be a facilitator of course lol! (tin foil I know... but each to their own).

That scene though, I would love to write... 

 

 

 

[Prof. Cecily]

I feel at a disadvantage here, yet need to unburden myself. 

It was only 4 days ago I learned of the Alayne chapter of TWOW. I'd read previously, about a fortnight ago,  an amusing post here speculating

Spoiler

about the possible outcomes of a Tourney at the Bloody Gates. At the time I thought the idea of a tourney was all simply a fan theory, plausible, being the sort of feckless nonsense Sansa would plan, but simply a fan theory. And I was entranced by the outrageousness of an gigantic snow slide/avalanche ending the LF/Sansa story. And especially, the detail of it being foreshadowed by a lemon cake. Too, too perfect.

Then I learned this entire scenario was from a released chapter. Obviously, I've read it 5 times, listened to all the video commentaries available, read all the posts in all the threads here. Oh, yes.

And at the end of the day, I can't help thinking

Spoiler

let slip the avalanche!

But, seriously, I'm finding all speculation about the evolution of the Vale story arc to be oddly unsatisfying.

Mayhaps I need another coffee.

[myhalfgroat]

On 4/21/2017 at 8:29 AM, Lynesse said:

The North also has its own accent:

really good catch, thanks.

[Prof. Cecily]

On 4/30/2017 at 4:49 PM, The Ned's Little Girl said:

I'm not seeing how the discussion of the Citadel or Jaqen or Euron relates to Harry and Sansa. Perhaps this could be moved to a different topic?

 

Sorry. 

We got there via dragons. 

It started with wondering how dragons will affect the Vale arc in general. Euron may have dragon-power, if not now, in the future.

I wonder because  the Vale is vulnerable to dragon activity and the Harry-Sansa flirtation/alliance  could be blown to pieces at any moment.

How old is Sansa now?

 

ETA. The thing is, with the Alayne chapter from TWOW

Spoiler

things look as though they could go in most interesting directions. I can't help wondering why Sansa, so determined to live in her Alayne persona, would organise the social event of the year, where she'll be under observation by many people, running the risk of being outed at any minute. Or is this part of Littlefinger's plan?