Littlefinger & the Second Dance with Dragons

[Lollygag]

I don’t claim to know Littlefinger’s end game, but his current moves in the Vale are not adding up so perhaps LF is playing a different aspect of the game than what he’s telling Sansa. His consistent modus operandi thus far has been to pit major houses against each other and let them destroy themselves while LF sits back and watches. I highly doubt that the Targs holding a lot of power factor into LF’s master plan anymore than the other major houses holding a lot of power. I imagine Dany/Aegon/Jon (if LF knows about RLJ) with 3 dragons would be a big problem for LF’s plans, whatever they may be, especially if any alliances develop.

Pitting major houses against Targs without dragons will work just fine, but once not one, but three dragons show up, that’s no longer going to work. To take down a Targ with a dragon, you need another Targ with a dragon. So I suggest that LF’s planning to ensure that the second Dance with Dragons happens in hopes that the Targs destroy themselves in war just like the other major houses destroyed each other.

Another catastrophic war would also raise the value of the Vale, untouched by war, provided LF could keep it untouched. It can also be argued that LF has paved the way for Dany or Aegon to take the IT by arranging for Cersei to be in power. Is he behind the rise of the High Sparrow, who will strongly be against incest and polygamy, thus preventing any unwanted Targ alliance or damaging any existing one since the original plan was for Aegon and Dany to arrive together? We know that he was behind the fArya plot because he’s the one who had Jeyne Poole, but that’s obviously not going well at the moment, but what purpose does it serve?

Question is, how does he accomplish ensuring a second Dance with Dragons based on his current position as Lord of Harrenhal, Lord Protector of the Vale, as allied with Cersei publicly but plotting against her, with a history of working with the Tyrells, specifically Olena, with strong ties to the Iron Bank, with possible ties to the FM? What about the possible complications of Euron, Tyrion still living, and Varys’ plans?

And here’s a big clue as to his plans as of mid-AFFC, or at least how he expects events to play out (LF doesn’t get a 5 year gap!)

“I had hoped to have four or five quiet years to plant some seeds and allow some fruits to ripen, but now . . . it is a good thing that I thrive on chaos. What little peace and order the five kings left us will not long survive the three queens, I fear."

Regardless of whether you think LF can or can’t pull off arranging a second Dance with Dragons, LF thinks he can handle Targs with dragons, because he obviously knows about Dany, her 3 dragons and Aegon (and maybe Jon though highly debatable), and that they’ll be on Westeros’ door step sooner rather than later. Yet LF is still playing towards some big end-game. How would he get past Targs and dragons?

 

[Rain on Wednesday]

I think one of the most interesting conflicts in the books and in the show is the conflict vs. LF and Varys. Varys does seem genuinely doing this for a higher purpose than his own gain, whereas LF is all about personal gain. 

LF seems to be "collecting" houses and territories only in the Seven Kingdoms so far, and we know that his eyes are turned towards King's Landing. If he can get the majority of the Seven Kingdoms behind him and capture the capitol in time, they will likely see Daenerys not as a savior or true claimant to the crown, but rather an invader and have even more common cause to unite against her. Especially if he weds Sansa. 

So, I see Varys bringing in those across the sea to pit them against a united (behind LF) Westeros, and though he has dragons on his side, but dragons aren't everything (ask Dorne).

As for how will he deal with the dragons? I still don't think we have enough information to understand that, but we do know that seven kingdoms coming together as one unified host has a MUCH better chance than when they were seven separate kingdoms and thus more easily conquered by Aegon the Dragon. 

One can be more powerful than five, remember? If LF is on the Iron Throne in time, he stands a good chance in my mind. 

 

 

 

[theMADdestScientist_]

7 hours ago, Lollygag said:

Regardless of whether you think LF can or can’t pull off arranging a second Dance with Dragons,

Oh no, if there's one thing he's good at, is to make chaos. Truth being told, i'm starting to believe that's the entire point of his character.

Despite his political acumen, Littlefinger's real "role" in this story is how he is able to manipulate the others and turn Westeros into a freakshow. I don't think he will achieve anything by the end of the story besides his own death, but the things he did along the way, they will be felt in the worst way possible.

[Ralphis Baratheon]

I think Baelish may have an ace up his sleeve. Maybe he has a Dragon horn or something? Braavos was able to stay off of old Valyria's radar when it's reasonable to assume Valyria knew they were there. Perhaps there was a reason Valyria never tried to conquer Braavos? With Baelish and his connections to Braavos it's reasonable to assume he may have information on how to deal with dragons. Or maybe he hopes (f)Aegon and Daenerys will destroy each other and he'll come in with tons of money and support and be a savoir to the 7 Kingdoms.