Let's speculate about the future roles of Willas and Garlan

[Seams]

3 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

Well, I guess you then also take Littlefinger and Varys during a council session at face value, right?

Olenna's actions reveal the lies in her words. She is in the game for power. But she can still consider the Renly thing a bad idea in the aftermath. However, one has to wonder - if she has was able to cancel the Willas-Cersei match (which very well could have led to a son of Willas becoming Lord of Casterly Rock in the future!) shouldn't she not also have been able to put an end to the Renly? Either by talking to Mace behind closed doors or by, you know, poisoning the man on his wedding feast?

The Willas-Cersei is a much more important match for House Tyrell than Joffrey/Tommen-Margaery because it involves the heir of Highgarden. Margaery's children will be of a female cadet branch which means they are pretty irrelevant in the long run but Willas' children will inherit Highgarden.

I agree that Olenna is playing a power game and that her statements to the contrary are not to be believed. She is a puppet master: when she says Mace wants his daughter to be queen, Olenna is putting the words in his mouth.

I don't think she sees the match with the so-called Baratheons as irrelevant. If the king's children are half-Tyrell, that will be a great and important alliance for their House going forward. With the Baratheons impoverished by Robert's debts (or Littlefinger's management practices) and the Tyrells still flush with wealth, there might even be a chance to continue manipulating the realm and even marrying their cousins in the next generation.

Olenna does seem to care about her grandchildren, with Margaery being a favorite because she's a shrewd girl, like Olenna herself. (She seems to see many men as dimwitted oafs.) I don't know that the Renly match lasted long enough for Olenna to form a strong opinion, but she may have been aware that Renly was the true love of Loras and hoped the match would work out for that reason - if Renly stayed true to Ser Loras, the bond and alliance between the royal and Tyrell families would be secure.

I think Olenna would like to see the western power centered at Highgarden, not remaining at Casterly Rock with a Tyrell heir assuming power. I suspect that the mines under Casterly Rock are exhausted and the Lannister power will diminish accordingly. Maybe Olenna knows that, too, and sees a chance for Willas to become warden of the west.

The leg injury for Willas is intriguing. I think that one way GRRM tells us to examine the similarities between or among characters is by giving them similar injuries. The most crucial leg injury in ASOIAF was Ned's badly broken leg - suffered when Jaime Lannister confronted him and his horse fell on his leg. Willas was also injured when a horse fell on him, but he became friends with his opponent, unlike Ned and Jaime. So there are differences, as with all of these plot "echoes" that GRRM builds into various arcs, but there are surprisingly few leg injuries in ASOIAF compared with eye and hand and belly injuries. I am wondering whether we are supposed to compare Willas and Ned somehow. If so, Willas will obviously be an important figure when he finally appears.

But the other intriguing thing is that Willas supposedly stays at home during all this war, important family weddings - we don't even see him during Catelyn's visit to Renly's camp. Supposedly, he gets around with a cane, so he's not a complete invalid, it seems. Even Prince Doran, who is in constant pain, moves from the Water Gardens to Sunspear. Lord Manderly is Too-Fat-to-Sit-A-Horse, but he gets around by having people carry him. Is Willas really confined to Highgarden because of his leg, or is there another reason he prefers to stay out of the soap opera of highborn Westeros society and warfare? What is his secret?

[Free Northman Reborn]

It is quite clear that Olenna wants nothing to do with King's Landing, and is merely trying to do damage control to protect House Tyrell against the potential fallout from Mace's foolish actions. Her act to marry Sansa to Willas is not a scheme to try and control the Iron Throne. She has no interest in that. Instead, it is a way to strengthen and secure House Tyrell, her family, should Mace's plans somehow take a turn for the worse.

Having Willas married to a daughter of Winterfell gives House Tyrell one more arrow in its quiver, one more potential ally should things with the Lannisters/Baratheons or others go sour.

It is simple pragmatism that leads Olenna to concoct the Willas-Sansa bethrothal. Not some kind of hidden ambition to rule Westeros. I think her entire arc makes that crystal clear.

[Stormking902]

20 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

Garlan doesn't even hold Brightwater right now, so this is a very unlikely scenario. The castle is still in possession of the Florents, namely Ser Colin Florent, another younger brother of the late Lord Alester Florent. Garlan's wife Lady Leonette Fossoway Tyrell has not yet given birth to any children and is most likely at Highgarden right now, just as Olenna and Alerie are.

Touche I forgot tht Colin Florent currently holds Brightwater keep, why would lady Leonette be without child after being happoly married to a stud like Ser Garlan ? Something fishy is going on

[Lord Varys]

2 hours ago, Seams said:

I agree that Olenna is playing a power game and that her statements to the contrary are not to be believed. She is a puppet master: when she says Mace wants his daughter to be queen, Olenna is putting the words in his mouth.

I'd not say she always has her way. But I think she and Mace have the same goal - get House Tyrell to the very top of the food chain and have all of Westeros do homage to the golden rose.

Olenna may not have been all that happy with the Renly approach. But then, we know the original plan was to make Margaery Robert's new queen. I'm pretty sure she approved of that.

2 hours ago, Seams said:

I don't think she sees the match with the so-called Baratheons as irrelevant. If the king's children are half-Tyrell, that will be a great and important alliance for their House going forward. With the Baratheons impoverished by Robert's debts (or Littlefinger's management practices) and the Tyrells still flush with wealth, there might even be a chance to continue manipulating the realm and even marrying their cousins in the next generation.

Sure, Margaery marrying into the royal family was important. But Willas' marriage is even more important, and if you compare Willas-Sansa/Cersei to Joffrey/Tommen-Margaery Willas' marriage either to Sansa or Cersei would have allowed the main branch of House Tyrell to control another great house and set themselves as the new ruling house of the united Reach-North or united Reach-West. Especially a son by Willas-Cersei could have permanently united the West and the Reach under his rule. Those are neighboring regions after all.

Not to mention the enormous wealth Willas would have been able to control directly as Lord of Highgarden and lord husband of the Lady of Casterly Rock.

2 hours ago, Seams said:

Olenna does seem to care about her grandchildren, with Margaery being a favorite because she's a shrewd girl, like Olenna herself. (She seems to see many men as dimwitted oafs.) I don't know that the Renly match lasted long enough for Olenna to form a strong opinion, but she may have been aware that Renly was the true love of Loras and hoped the match would work out for that reason - if Renly stayed true to Ser Loras, the bond and alliance between the royal and Tyrell families would be secure.

Sure, but Renly-Loras/Margaery wasn't exactly an easy way to permanently control the Iron Throne. Renly would have to take the throne over the dead bodies of Stannis and Cersei's sons, setting another major precedent that rebellions are a legitimate means to gain power. And with Renly's sexual preferences it would be very easy to declare Margaery's children later on bastards - just as Rhaenyra's sons by Laenor were - resulting in multiple rebellions throughout Renly's reign as well as after his death.

Joffrey was a better alternative after Renly's death and it would have worked fine had he not been as fucked-up a brat as he was.

2 hours ago, Seams said:

I think Olenna would like to see the western power centered at Highgarden, not remaining at Casterly Rock with a Tyrell heir assuming power. I suspect that the mines under Casterly Rock are exhausted and the Lannister power will diminish accordingly. Maybe Olenna knows that, too, and sees a chance for Willas to become warden of the west.

That is nonsense. George has made it crystal clear that the Lannisters are as insanely rich as they appear. The mines beneath Casterly Rock (and those in the West in general, aside from those who are mentioned to be exhausted).

2 hours ago, Seams said:

But the other intriguing thing is that Willas supposedly stays at home during all this war, important family weddings - we don't even see him during Catelyn's visit to Renly's camp. Supposedly, he gets around with a cane, so he's not a complete invalid, it seems. Even Prince Doran, who is in constant pain, moves from the Water Gardens to Sunspear. Lord Manderly is Too-Fat-to-Sit-A-Horse, but he gets around by having people carry him. Is Willas really confined to Highgarden because of his leg, or is there another reason he prefers to stay out of the soap opera of highborn Westeros society and warfare? What is his secret?

This is not all that strange, actually. Mace and Garlan also weren't part of Renly's grand progress. Mace and 10,000 Tyrell men including Garlan and Willas stayed behind at Highgarden. For some reason they were not all that keen to participate in the war personally. Only Loras and Margaery were with Renly.

2 hours ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

It is quite clear that Olenna wants nothing to do with King's Landing, and is merely trying to do damage control to protect House Tyrell against the potential fallout from Mace's foolish actions. Her act to marry Sansa to Willas is not a scheme to try and control the Iron Throne. She has no interest in that. Instead, it is a way to strengthen and secure House Tyrell, her family, should Mace's plans somehow take a turn for the worse.

Nope, that's a plan to control the North and eventually install a Tyrell as the new Lord of Winterfell. Sansa is just Willas' breeding mare, there, just as she would have been as Tyrion's wife. Just as 'Arya' is for Ramsay now.

2 hours ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

It is simple pragmatism that leads Olenna to concoct the Willas-Sansa bethrothal. Not some kind of hidden ambition to rule Westeros. I think her entire arc makes that crystal clear.

She is the one behind the Margaery-Tommen marriage. And she is the one who insists that the new married royal couple actually sleeps in one bed together. Cersei shuts that down, of course, but it is crystal clear that she wants Margaery to have her own son as quickly as possible and then Tommen could go, too, if he turned out to be quarrelsome.

[Free Northman Reborn]

1 hour ago, Lord Varys said:

Nope, that's a plan to control the North and eventually install a Tyrell as the new Lord of Winterfell. Sansa is just Willas' breeding mare, there, just as she would have been as Tyrion's wife. Just as 'Arya' is for Ramsay now.

She is the one behind the Margaery-Tommen marriage. And she is the one who insists that the new married royal couple actually sleeps in one bed together. Cersei shuts that down, of course, but it is crystal clear that she wants Margaery to have her own son as quickly as possible and then Tommen could go, too, if he turned out to be quarrelsome.

Yes, because Mace has foolishly dragged her family into the midst of the Game of Thrones. And she sees the Lannisters for the deadly foe that they are. So now that Mace has dragged her House into this deadly game, she is going all out to make sure that they come out of it as powerful as possible.

Frankly, you are ignoring everything she has directly said, and using your own interpretation to suggest that her real intentions are 180 degrees the opposite of the character that Martin introduced to us.

With Margaery the mother of the heir, she is safer against any Lannister treachery - or other plots from unexpected foes like Varys, Littlefinger or even the Dornish for all Olenna knows - who might try to hurt House Tyrell in this vicious game.

I take her puff fish speech to Sansa as completely honest. But now that Mace the Buffoon has forced her into this situation, she will go all the way to make sure they come out of it on top.

[Good Guy Garlan]

2 hours ago, Stormking902 said:

why would lady Leonette be without child after being happoly married to a stud like Ser Garlan ? Something fishy is going on

That seems kind of deliberate on GRRM'S part, like he wants to keep the potential Tyrell heirs to a minimum. Shit, I hope he's not considering the entire annihilation of House Tyrell. 

[Free Northman Reborn]

23 minutes ago, Good Guy Garlan said:

That seems kind of deliberate on GRRM'S part, like he wants to keep the potential Tyrell heirs to a minimum. Shit, I hope he's not considering the entire annihilation of House Tyrell. 

I actually think he is, and have thought so for a long time. Martin has already hinted quite strongly in an SSM that not all the Great Houses will survive this series, and it would be just like him to let the obvious candidates for extinction - like the Arryns with just Sweetrobin and Harry left - actually pull through, while the seemingly fertile, fortunate and powerful House Tyrell all die off by the end of the story.

In fact, I view the Tyrells as prime candidates for extinction, along with the Tullys - although Bran/Rickon will then inherit the Riverlands, so House Tully would technically still survive through them, albeit as an offshoot of House Stark.

[Lord Varys]

55 minutes ago, Good Guy Garlan said:

That seems kind of deliberate on GRRM'S part, like he wants to keep the potential Tyrell heirs to a minimum. Shit, I hope he's not considering the entire annihilation of House Tyrell. 

I suggest you reread the Tyrell appendix of ASoS. Even if Luthor and Olenna's entire line were to die the Tyrells would continue without much difficulty. Mace has multiple uncles and a veritable army of cousins.

[Free Northman Reborn]

6 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

I suggest you reread the Tyrell appendix of ASoS. Even if Luthor and Olenna's entire line were to die the Tyrells would continue without much difficulty. Mace has multiple uncles and a veritable army of cousins.

War, disease and the legions of the dead are about to arrive in the Reach. Let's see what the situation looks like in two books time.

[Lord Varys]

9 minutes ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

War, disease and the legions of the dead are about to arrive in the Reach. Let's see what the situation looks like in two books time.

I doubt the Reach will see 'legions of the dead' soon. First they are going to arrive at the Wall, not thousands of leagues farther down south. And even that doesn't seem to be on the table soon.

And there are multiple branches of House Tyrell around, both male and female branches, not all of which are actually living at the same place. The idea that they would all die is, well, pretty far-fetched. George is not trying to kill as many Tyrells as possible. In fact, he has not killed a single Tyrell up to this point.

The probability that the line of House Tyrell is extinguished is about as high as that the Lannisters of Casterly Rock are eradicated. And that means that it is very low. Other houses are more likely to die out - at least in the lordly branch. The great houses who face the greatest dangers in that regard would be the Arryns, Baratheons, Targaryens, Tullys, Starks, and Martells.

The Lannisters, Tyrells, Hightowers, Greyjoys are in a much better position to survive.

[Free Northman Reborn]

12 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

I doubt the Reach will see 'legions of the dead' soon. First they are going to arrive at the Wall, not thousands of leagues farther down south. And even that doesn't seem to be on the table soon.

And there are multiple branches of House Tyrell around, both male and female branches, not all of which are actually living at the same place. The idea that they would all die is, well, pretty far-fetched. George is not trying to kill as many Tyrells as possible. In fact, he has not killed a single Tyrell up to this point.

The probability that the line of House Tyrell is extinguished is about as high as that the Lannisters of Casterly Rock are eradicated. And that means that it is very low. Other houses are more likely to die out - at least in the lordly branch. The great houses who face the greatest dangers in that regard would be the Arryns, Baratheons, Targaryens, Tullys, Starks, and Martells.

The Lannisters, Tyrells, Hightowers, Greyjoys are in a much better position to survive.

Well let's get real here. Even you know the Starks are not dying out.

And I would guess that even you would acknowlege that Edrick Storm's likely purpose is to perpetuate House Baratheon after Stannis's line is no more.

As for the eventual fate of the Reach. Why the need to point out that X or Y isn't happening there "soon"? We aren't talking about "soon". We are talking about the end state when the series concludes. And once the main branch of House Tyrell is wiped out, and the social fabric of Westeros has been severely weakened by the Long Night, given all the Houses of the Reach that claim descent from Garth Greenhand, are we really that confident that some offshoot branch of House Tyrell, perhaps a cousin through the female line or some such distant claimaint, will have the support to rule the Reach again against other contenders who might dispute that right?

 

[Lord Varys]

2 minutes ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

Well let's get real here. Even you know the Starks are not dying out.

Am I? No, I'm not. I'm ruled by favoritism. The Starks, Targaryens, Arryns, and Baratheons are all threatened by extinction in the main branch because they are down to a handful (or less) people, most of which are either children or youths, prone to make rash and suicidal decisions.

I'm inclined that at least one Stark and one Targaryen will survive the series but that's not the same as the line surviving. If Dany turns out to be barren, and Jon becomes king (either as her consort or after her death) and Rickon dies then House Stark will die out in the male line when Bran dies (never mind whether that happens during the series or decades or centuries later). Bran cannot father any children.

Sansa and Arya can live but not continue House Stark in the male line.

The same would go for Daenerys and House Targaryen if she took a non-Targaryen consort. Her children would then be named after their father as is proper procedure in Westeros. Even Rhaenyra Targaryen's sons by Laenor Velaryon were Velaryons, not Targaryens.

If you ask me what I want to happen then I'd answer that I hope the Starks are restored to Winterfell and continue their line. I think you remember that I want Rickon to live and become Lord of Winterfell. I also hope the Targaryens are restored to the Iron Throne in one way or another - either Dany, or Jon Snow, or them both - to continue the royal line. That is necessary for some closure.

A child of Jon and Dany's would be nice but it could also work in a more convoluted way - say, by Dany adopting Aegon's son by Arianne, naming him her heir in the wake of her own barrenness (and Jon's possible inability to father children after his, well, death and resurrection).

2 minutes ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

And I would guess that even you would acknowlege that Edrick Storm's likely purpose is to perpetuate House Baratheon after Stannis's line is no more.

I'm not sure of that, actually. And why Edric and not Gendry or Mya. Mya is an acknowledged noble bastard, too, else she would not be a Stone (her mother is a commoner). Robert just did not acknowledge her when he was king but merely the Lord of Storm's End.

Edric Storm is just so insignificant and irrelevant a character that I really don't think he has to come back into the story at all. And if he does he could still live and die a Storm. Storm's End could very well go to some new house.

Just as the Eyrie might in the wake of the deaths of Robert Arryn and Harrold Hardyng (who both might not survive the series, either).

2 minutes ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

As for the eventual fate of the Reach. Why the need to point out that X or Y isn't happening there "soon"? We aren't talking about "soon". We are talking about the end state when the series concludes. And once the main branch of House Tyrell is wiped out, and the social fabric of Westeros has been severely weakened by the Long Night, given all the Houses of the Reach that claim descent from Garth Greenhand, are we really that confident that some offshoot branch of House Tyrell, perhaps a cousin through the female line or some such distant claimaint, will have the support to rule the Reach again against other contenders who might dispute that right?

We are not talking about House Tyrell of Highgarden. The Tyrells certainly could lose Highgarden (although right now I'd call that possibility fantasy or wishful thinking) but that doesn't mean they have to be eradicated as a house.

Time matters insofar as the number of Tyrells you seem to want to die have to die on the pages of the books we are talking about. And there are a lot of them left.

And just check the family tree again, will you. There are a lot of male branch cousins of Mace left, not just female ones. If Mace, Willas, Garlan, Loras, and Margaery bite the dust there are lots and lots of uncles and cousins through the male line around who would come first. And most of them actually hold positions of power and authority, enabling them to make good of their claims should the need or the opportunity present itself. They are not virtual nobodies like poor Harry Hardyng.

But the houses I expect to die out (more or less in the sense that their members are killed and any absent heirs lose everything) are the Freys, the Boltons (who seem to be down to two members of the lordly branch), the Cleganes, the Baelishs (one member who is likely to die), and a few others.

Thinking about it, the Tarths are very much threatened (Brienne has a dangerous lifestyle and her lord father isn't the youngest guy under the sun).

The idea that George indicating that houses might die out in the series tells us nothing about whether that possibility is realized nor whether any great houses will be affected. Some houses like the Whents, Darrys, and Rosbys already died out in the male line during the books.

[Free Northman Reborn]

3 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

Am I? No, I'm not. I'm ruled by favoritism. The Starks, Targaryens, Arryns, and Baratheons are all threatened by extinction in the main branch because they are down to a handful (or less) people, most of which are either children or youths, prone to make rash and suicidal decisions.

I'm inclined that at least one Stark and one Targaryen will survive the series but that's not the same as the line surviving. If Dany turns out to be barren, and Jon becomes king (either as her consort or after her death) and Rickon dies then House Stark will die out in the male line when Bran dies (never mind whether that happens during the series or decades or centuries later). Bran cannot father any children.

Sansa and Arya can live but not continue House Stark in the male line.

The same would go for Daenerys and House Targaryen if she took a non-Targaryen consort. Her children would then be named after their father as is proper procedure in Westeros. Even Rhaenyra Targaryen's sons by Laenor Velaryon were Velaryons, not Targaryens.

If you ask me what I want to happen then I'd answer that I hope the Starks are restored to Winterfell and continue their line. I think you remember that I want Rickon to live and become Lord of Winterfell. I also hope the Targaryens are restored to the Iron Throne in one way or another - either Dany, or Jon Snow, or them both - to continue the royal line. That is necessary for some closure.

A child of Jon and Dany's would be nice but it could also work in a more convoluted way - say, by Dany adopting Aegon's son by Arianne, naming him her heir in the wake of her own barrenness (and Jon's possible inability to father children after his, well, death and resurrection).

I'm not sure of that, actually. And why Edric and not Gendry or Mya. Mya is an acknowledged noble bastard, too, else she would not be a Stone (her mother is a commoner). Robert just did not acknowledge her when he was king but merely the Lord of Storm's End.

Edric Storm is just so insignificant and irrelevant a character that I really don't think he has to come back into the story at all. And if he does he could still live and die a Storm. Storm's End could very well go to some new house.

Just as the Eyrie might in the wake of the deaths of Robert Arryn and Harrold Hardyng (who both might not survive the series, either).

We are not talking about House Tyrell of Highgarden. The Tyrells certainly could lose Highgarden (although right now I'd call that possibility fantasy or wishful thinking) but that doesn't mean they have to be eradicated as a house.

Time matters insofar as the number of Tyrells you seem to want to die have to die on the pages of the books we are talking about. And there are a lot of them left.

And just check the family tree again, will you. There are a lot of male branch cousins of Mace left, not just female ones. If Mace, Willas, Garlan, Loras, and Margaery bite the dust there are lots and lots of uncles and cousins through the male line around who would come first. And most of them actually hold positions of power and authority, enabling them to make good of their claims should the need or the opportunity present itself. They are not virtual nobodies like poor Harry Hardyng.

But the houses I expect to die out (more or less in the sense that their members are killed and any absent heirs lose everything) are the Freys, the Boltons (who seem to be down to two members of the lordly branch), the Cleganes, the Baelishs (one member who is likely to die), and a few others.

Thinking about it, the Tarths are very much threatened (Brienne has a dangerous lifestyle and her lord father isn't the youngest guy under the sun).

The idea that George indicating that houses might die out in the series tells us nothing about whether that possibility is realized nor whether any great houses will be affected. Some houses like the Whents, Darrys, and Rosbys already died out in the male line during the books.

George was asked specifically about the Great Houses.

As for the Starks, I'm surprised by your honest answer, I must admit. Because it seems to be somewhat...I don't have the right word..but "naive" is perhaps the closest to what I am looking for. Naive in terms of taking a step back from the series and just looking at George's intentions.

Again, George was asked about why he had the Starks lose in his series and how depressing that was and so on and so forth, and his answer was along the lines of, "Well, the series isn't over yet".

Irrespective of what we might prefer - and yes, I don't doubt that you would prefer Rickon to rule Winterfell in the end - I don't see how you can seriously propose that Martin does not intend for House Stark to continue as rulers of Winterfell at the end of the series. It seems utterly obvious that this will be the case. Just from a meta perspective, even if House Stark was down to one sickly boy on the brink of death, it seems obvious that they are the safest House of all from going extinct. It just aint going to happen.

And yes, it pretty much has to be Rickon - if Bran is indeed incapable of procreating (I don't know the exact extent of his disability as far as THAT bodily function is concerned), and if Benjen never returns to father a bastard, or if the Night's Watch doesn't disband and Benjen returns and marries someone in the end, then yes, Rickon must be the channel for the male line's continuation.

 

[Lord Varys]

1 hour ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

George was asked specifically about the Great Houses.

Even if he interpreted it that way - his answer certainly can't be read as a confirmation that any of the great houses actually will die out. Some certainly could get attainted and/or never be restored (Baratheons, Arryns) but that's another matter. And on the non-noble or bastard level all of the great lines will survive.

1 hour ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

As for the Starks, I'm surprised by your honest answer, I must admit. Because it seems to be somewhat...I don't have the right word..but "naive" is perhaps the closest to what I am looking for. Naive in terms of taking a step back from the series and just looking at George's intentions.

Again, George was asked about why he had the Starks lose in his series and how depressing that was and so on and so forth, and his answer was along the lines of, "Well, the series isn't over yet".

Well, I really don't care about the author or myself spoiling the ending. I think some of our Stark heroes certainly will end up on top. And I don't think all of them will die (although there is a small chance that, perhaps, that all/many of the great heroes end up dying in the last climatic battle). But this doesn't mean that Bran, Arya, Sansa, Rickon, and Jon are all going to survive. Some of them will. But either Rickon, Arya, or Sansa is certainly in the game to die and stay permanently die if you ask me. The bloodletting is not yet over and the Others certainly have to kill some of our heroes, too, to prove that they mean business. Killing nameless and faceless Tyrells is not going to establish that.

The series is about individual characters, not dynasties or houses. We will never meet Dany's, Jon's, Arya's, or Sansa's children (as characters - Dany and/or Jon could have children in the story - Arya and Sansa most likely won't), let alone their grandchildren. The fact that they are likely to end up on top in some fashion in the end doesn't mean their lines will continue for ten thousand years and their great-great-great-grandchildren will exist and/or fuck things up for everybody.

And in general, you should keep your expectations how the series will end separate from any discussion of what may happen under certain conditions. Claiming you have special knowledge how the series should or will end has no room in discussion like that. The series has not yet been completed and George can change his mind on the road. He already has, quite a few times.

1 hour ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

Irrespective of what we might prefer - and yes, I don't doubt that you would prefer Rickon to rule Winterfell in the end - I don't see how you can seriously propose that Martin does not intend for House Stark to continue as rulers of Winterfell at the end of the series. It seems utterly obvious that this will be the case. Just from a meta perspective, even if House Stark was down to one sickly boy on the brink of death, it seems obvious that they are the safest House of all from going extinct. It just aint going to happen.

They would not be extinct at the end of the series, of course. Just doomed to die out/unable to continue the line. Just as the withered womb of Lady Dustin is not going to bring forth any Dustins. A Lady Arya, a Lady Sansa, and a Lord Brandon would not be able to continue the line of House Stark (in the male line). That is basically a fact.

1 hour ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

And yes, it pretty much has to be Rickon - if Bran is indeed incapable of procreating (I don't know the exact extent of his disability as far as THAT bodily function is concerned), and if Benjen never returns to father a bastard, or if the Night's Watch doesn't disband and Benjen returns and marries someone in the end, then yes, Rickon must be the channel for the male line's continuation.

Ned told us that Bran would never be able to father children. That is all I need to sure of that. That in and of itself makes it clear that Bran is not in the game to return to Winterfell alive. He doesn't have to because he is not even needed to for dynastic purposes.

And as for Rickon:

Spoiler

You are the one who likes to cite the show. Well, he dies there. I don't think he will die that way, and I don't want him to die at all. But he certainly is the least prominent Stark character, making it not all that likely that he is going to play a prominent role. Especially not in the grand finale.

If he is lucky they could install him as the new Lord of Winterfell at the end of the entire story. But we won't see a four-year-old leading the fight against the Boltons or the Others. That would just be ridiculous. And the more gruesome and bloody those books get the less room and patience people should have with child pretenders like Rickon, Shireen, Tommen, Bran, Edric Storm, etc. Hard and savage times need hard and savage men like the Starks (and other Northmen) of old. And those were not allowing children to tell them what to do. Or allowed them to serve as their puppets and mouthpieces.

I find it more likely that Sansa will end up as the Lady of Winterfell in the end. She is the one who gets proper political training, not to mention that she is likely going rule or at least share in the rule of whatever husband she will finally end up with. Arya is also a possibility, but I really think she deserves better - either a death in battle/war or a life away from the tedious responsibility of rebuilding and ruling. She is not yet twelve and deeply disturbed and traumatized girl. I mean, who believes that an annoying peasant is going to get justice if he presents himself to a, say, 17-year-old Lady Arya when she has had a really bad day?

Never thought about Benjen but if he actually is still alive and reasonably well he could actually end up with Winterfell, too, at the very end. If Rickon is dead and Sansa and Arya are doing other stuff and there is no longer a Night's Watch he certainly could return to the place and have a family of his own. That would be reasonably surprising and interesting.

[Lord Wraith]

9 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

I suggest you reread the Tyrell appendix of ASoS. Even if Luthor and Olenna's entire line were to die the Tyrells would continue without much difficulty. Mace has multiple uncles and a veritable army of cousins.

Growing Strong indeed.

8 hours ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

War, disease and the legions of the dead are about to arrive in the Reach. Let's see what the situation looks like in two books time.

Can't you say that about Westeros in general?

[Makk]

I think Mace Tyrell is about to die and Randyll Tarly is going to lead a mass defection to fAegon's army. Willas and Garlan will then be put in the position of leading the fractured remains of the Reach against the Ironborn and their former vassals.

I don't think Dorne is going to side with Aegon though, so Willas will try and bring them together and ultimately align with Daenerys. 

I think Euron wants something in Oldtown but doesn't actually care about his own men, so Garlan will successfully defeat the Ironborn, but only after Euron gets whatever it is he wants.

[Lord Varys]

6 hours ago, Lord Wraith said:

Can't you say that about Westeros in general?

You certainly can. And I'm pretty sure that the North will continue to drown and freeze in blood in the foreseeable future. First thanks to Roose, Stannis, Jon, the wildlings, and the Night's Watch. And then because the Others and the wights are going to come. The idea that the guys up there are better off than the people down in the South where winter usually is much milder (and thus likely to not get as worse as quickly as it will in the North) and things are not as fucked up as they are in the North doesn't make a lot of sense.

We know how bad things are in the North already, and they are not going to get better now that winter has come. But how bad things will be in the Reach are right now just baseless speculation. We don't know what George has in store for the people down there. Things could get worse in the Stormlands, the Reach, Dorne, the Vale, and the West. But they could also not get all that worse. But we know for a certainty that people will starve and freeze to death by the thousands in the Riverlands and the North because of the destructions those regions suffered during the wars. Especially the lack and destruction of the last harvest and other provisions will prove to be fatal for many people there.

5 hours ago, Makk said:

I think Mace Tyrell is about to die and Randyll Tarly is going to lead a mass defection to fAegon's army.

Tarly and/or Mace might end up on Aegon's side eventually (if their army is defeated in battle and they have to reconsider their options) but Tarly does not strike me as the kind of guy who defects to another side. He put down many Florent men who wanted to join Stannis, knowing fully well that Renly's claim was worth nothing compared to Stannis' and also having learned that Cersei's children allegedly aren't Robert's. The man doesn't give a shit about 'the rightful king'. What should be his motivation to join Aegon?

And Targaryen looks or not, I can't see Tarly being willing to join a pretender who could very well be just an impostor whelped by some whore. If Viserys III or Daenerys showed up he might be willing to consider their claims but Prince Aegon the son of Rhaegar is dead. End of story.

There are still Targaryen loyalists in the Reach (Mathis Rowan is one of them) but nothing indicates that Tarly gives a shit about the Targaryens.

5 hours ago, Makk said:

Willas and Garlan will then be put in the position of leading the fractured remains of the Reach against the Ironborn and their former vassals.

They are right now occupied with the Ironborn already. And those lords and knights whose lands are threatened by Euron's raiders are not likely to turn against the very Tyrells who actually lead the men of the Reach against the Ironborn enemy. That would be as likely as half of the Riverlords just deciding to turn against Edmure and Robb and declaring for King Stannis while Tywin and his Lannister armies are burning and raiding the Riverlands. You don't do that kind of thing.

What the men Mace and Tarly in KL do in relation to Aegon or Tommen is not likely to interest the men in the Reach all that much. They have to fight off invaders, and they can only do that if they are working together.

5 hours ago, Makk said:

I don't think Dorne is going to side with Aegon though, so Willas will try and bring them together and ultimately align with Daenerys.

That is very unlikely. Dorne will never join Daenerys now that Quentyn has been killed by one of her dragons. Even if they are not teaming up with Aegon for some reason (very unlikely) both Doran and Arianne would not bestir themselves for Daenerys, a woman who rejected Quentyn as her consort.

5 hours ago, Makk said:

I think Euron wants something in Oldtown but doesn't actually care about his own men, so Garlan will successfully defeat the Ironborn, but only after Euron gets whatever it is he wants.

Garlan isn't in Oldtown and has no intention of going there. The Hightowers have to see to their own defenses, and they are powerful enough to do that. Garlan (and possibly Willas, too) have gone down the Mander, preparing to retake the Shields. And that's going to work since Euron has made it pretty clear that he doesn't give a shit about those islands. The new Ironborn Lords of the Shield Islands have to defend them, not he. He has other things to do. First he has to defeat the Redwyne fleet and then he will most likely take the Arbor. That should become his new base of operations. As an island it would be much easier to defend against the Reach lords than a base on the mainland of Westeros. And unlike the Shields the Arbor is insanely rich.

[Makk]

11 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

Tarly and/or Mace might end up on Aegon's side eventually (if their army is defeated in battle and they have to reconsider their options) but Tarly does not strike me as the kind of guy who defects to another side. He put down many Florent men who wanted to join Stannis, knowing fully well that Renly's claim was worth nothing compared to Stannis' and also having learned that Cersei's children allegedly aren't Robert's. The man doesn't give a shit about 'the rightful king'. What should be his motivation to join Aegon?

It is highly speculative and there is no hard evidence for Tarly to be leading a defection but there are certainly motivations for it.

We have repeatedly been made aware that Mace Tyrell likes to be seen as a warrior and has claimed the honor that should have been given to Tarly. 

“Your father is an able soldier,” King Stannis said. “He defeated my brother once, at Ashford. Mace Tyrell has been pleased to claim the honors for that victory, but Lord Randyll had decided matters before Tyrell ever found the battlefield. He slew Lord Cafferen with that great Valyrian sword of his and sent his head to Aerys.” 

We also know that Randyll Tarly does have an ego, so he is almost certainly annoyed (at the least) by this

“It takes more than a pretty cloak to charge a shield wall,” Randyll Tarly announced. “I was leading Mace Tyrell’s van when you were still sucking on your mother’s teat, Guyard.”

And then after the war against Stannis, the Tyrells not only claimed the richest prizes, but the richest prize, Brightwater, should have actually been inherited by Randyll Tarlys wife who was a Florent who stayed loyal. This is a serious slight and could give cause to serious grievance.

Highgarden reaped the richest harvest. Tyrion eyed Mace Tyrell’s broad belly and thought, He has a prodigious appetite, this one. Tyrell demanded the lands and castles of Lord Alester Florent, his own bannerman, who’d had the singular ill judgment to back first Renly and then Stannis. Lord Tywin was pleased to oblige. Brightwater Keep and all its lands and incomes were granted to Lord Tyrell’s second son, Ser Garlan, transforming him into a great lord in the blink of an eye. His elder brother, of course, stood to inherit Highgarden itself.

Lesser tracts were granted to Lord Rowan, and set aside for Lord Tarly, Lady Oakheart, Lord Hightower, and other worthies not present. 

Note that he also betrothed Dickon to Eleanor Mooton of Maidenpool, a house that sided with the Targaryens against the Tulleys, so there is a link there as well.

11 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

That is very unlikely. Dorne will never join Daenerys now that Quentyn has been killed by one of her dragons. Even if they are not teaming up with Aegon for some reason (very unlikely) both Doran and Arianne would not bestir themselves for Daenerys, a woman who rejected Quentyn as her consort.

We have been over this before and I am not going to go into it in depth again. Based on the story structure, it would seem incredibly odd to me that GRRM has put so many chapters into Arianne, her task of identifying whether Aegon is genuine, examining her thoughts around longing for a potential suitor, only for her to meet Aegon and simply sign Dorne up. GRRM likes to force characters into tough decisions. I think she will identify that he is a fake, be tempted to try to seduce him anyway, but ultimately she will resist her temptation and tell her father the truth.

Quentyn brought his fate upon himself. Doran will understand that and his friends will provide the true account.

Symbolically, Dorne has always sided with the Targaryens in every Blackfyre rebellion as well. And Daenerys actually has dragons.

11 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

Garlan isn't in Oldtown and has no intention of going there. The Hightowers have to see to their own defenses, and they are powerful enough to do that. Garlan (and possibly Willas, too) have gone down the Mander, preparing to retake the Shields. And that's going to work since Euron has made it pretty clear that he doesn't give a shit about those islands. The new Ironborn Lords of the Shield Islands have to defend them, not he. He has other things to do. First he has to defeat the Redwyne fleet and then he will most likely take the Arbor. That should become his new base of operations. As an island it would be much easier to defend against the Reach lords than a base on the mainland of Westeros. And unlike the Shields the Arbor is insanely rich.

And I believe he will go wherever the Ironborn are. I also believe Euron is targeting Oldtown. 

[Lord Varys]

44 minutes ago, Makk said:

It is highly speculative and there is no hard evidence for Tarly to be leading a defection but there are certainly motivations for it.

There are tales and ideas but not actual motivations based on anything Tarly says or does.

44 minutes ago, Makk said:

We have repeatedly been made aware that Mace Tyrell likes to be seen as a warrior and has claimed the honor that should have been given to Tarly. 

“Your father is an able soldier,” King Stannis said. “He defeated my brother once, at Ashford. Mace Tyrell has been pleased to claim the honors for that victory, but Lord Randyll had decided matters before Tyrell ever found the battlefield. He slew Lord Cafferen with that great Valyrian sword of his and sent his head to Aerys.” 

That is actual a misconstruction of things. Mace did win that battle, not Tarly. Tarly was one of the commanders, but Mace was the general of the army. If I'm the general of an army any victory that army wins is my victory. And thus Mace and not Tarly defeated Robert at Ashford. Mace does not have to be on the battlefield to do that.

That is even more true in monarchy. The Battle of the Blackwater was not won by Tyrion, Tywin, Mace, Garlan, Littlefinger, or any of the other nobles. It was won by King Joffrey. Because the Lannister and the Tyrell men on the field were fighting in his name. Just as the Tyrell men at Ashford were fighting in the name of Mace Tyrell (and Aerys II) name.

Tarly can be mildly annoyed that Mace is bragging about his victory but this is not humiliating him. He knows what he has done, and as of yet Mace always seem to have rewarded him properly for his service.

What you seem to overlook in this discussion is that Tarly rose to a position of nearly absolute power as Master of Laws and military mind of Mace Tyrell. Serving as the de facto regent behind the little puppet king Tommen should give Tarly much more opportunity to acquire power and wealth for himself and his family than throwing all that away to support a (most likely fake) Targaryen pretender.

44 minutes ago, Makk said:

And then after the war against Stannis, the Tyrells not only claimed the richest prizes, but the richest prize, Brightwater, should have actually been inherited by Randyll Tarlys wife who was a Florent who stayed loyal. This is a serious slight and could give cause to serious grievance.

Nothing indicates that Tarly wanted Brightwater for himself. The man turned against his wife's kin when he put down those Florent men.

44 minutes ago, Makk said:

Note that he also betrothed Dickon to Eleanor Mooton of Maidenpool, a house that sided with the Targaryens against the Tulleys, so there is a link there as well.

Tarly has made it pretty clear that he despises Mooton. I doubt anything important comes from that marriage thing.

44 minutes ago, Makk said:

We have been over this before and I am not going to go into it in depth again. Based on the story structure, it would seem incredibly odd to me that GRRM has put so many chapters into Arianne, her task of identifying whether Aegon is genuine, examining her thoughts around longing for a potential suitor, only for her to meet Aegon and simply sign Dorne up. GRRM likes to force characters into tough decisions. I think she will identify that he is a fake, be tempted to try to seduce him anyway, but ultimately she will resist her temptation and tell her father the truth.

I don't see how Arianne could identify Aegon as a fake. She has never seen him. Arianne is not only going to join Aegon. She will soon dominate and control his entire movement. If she can seduce him and make him love her she will become the true power behind the Iron Throne. And that's what she seems to want.

44 minutes ago, Makk said:

Quentyn brought his fate upon himself. Doran will understand that and his friends will provide the true account.

Nope, Gerris already hates Daenerys. If he ever gets back to Dorne he will confirm all Arianne's worst fears about Daenerys.

But it is not just the fact that Quentyn died or how he died, it is also that Dany spurned Quentyn. That means the Martells are no longer honor-bound to actually try to work with Dany. The marriage contract Darry and Oberyn made is now officially dead. Dany cannot expect to get any help from Dorne now.

44 minutes ago, Makk said:

Symbolically, Dorne has always sided with the Targaryens in every Blackfyre rebellion as well. And Daenerys actually has dragons.

So what? Dorne resisted the dragons before. And the Blackfyres are irrelevant to all this. There are two Targaryen pretenders, no Blackfyres.

44 minutes ago, Makk said:

And I believe he will go wherever the Ironborn are. I also believe Euron is targeting Oldtown. 

The Ironborn are with Euron. He only left a token force to die on the Shield Islands. And right now he is not targeting Oldtown. He is targeting the Arbor and the Redwyne fleet.

[Makk]

1 hour ago, Lord Varys said:

Nothing indicates that Tarly wanted Brightwater for himself. The man turned against his wife's kin when he put down those Florent men.

We don't have a Randyll point of view, but why wouldn't he want it? It was the most valuable tract of land given as a prize, but he stayed loyal and should have inherited it through his wife.

2 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

That is actual a misconstruction of things. Mace did win that battle, not Tarly. Tarly was one of the commanders, but Mace was the general of the army. If I'm the general of an army any victory that army wins is my victory. And thus Mace and not Tarly defeated Robert at Ashford. Mace does not have to be on the battlefield to do that.

A misconception? Tyrion says it as well. I think your argument claiming that Mace Tyrell's positioning won the battle, is quite weak by itself. Additionally is there even any evidence to suggest that Mace was a general? Aerys was the ultimate commander, but the general at that time who would have been ordering both Tarly and Mace would probably be Jon Connington or possibly his predecessor.

2 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

Tarly can be mildly annoyed that Mace is bragging about his victory but this is not humiliating him. He knows what he has done, and as of yet Mace always seem to have rewarded him properly for his service.

When has he ever been rewarded properly for his service? With minor titles? As was just pointed out above the Tyrells could have been seen to actually steal Brightwater from him.

3 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

Tarly has made it pretty clear that he despises Mooton. I doubt anything important comes from that marriage thing.

What he thinks of Mooton is irrelevant. He made the betrothal for some reason. Most likely it is to acquire control over a relatively powerful house in the riverlands. I did think the fact that it is a Targaryen loyalist house to be somewhat interesting although it is a very minor point. In any event I think it shows that he is politically motivated to acquire more power and influence.

3 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

I don't see how Arianne could identify Aegon as a fake. She has never seen him. Arianne is not only going to join Aegon. She will soon dominate and control his entire movement. If she can seduce him and make him love her she will become the true power behind the Iron Throne. And that's what she seems to want.

Arianne is being sent there to determine whether he is what he says he is. Use your imagination. Perhaps there is a birthmark, or perhaps she will interrogate Connington and be less gullible sensing falseness in the story.

3 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

Nope, Gerris already hates Daenerys. If he ever gets back to Dorne he will confirm all Arianne's worst fears about Daenerys.

But it is not just the fact that Quentyn died or how he died, it is also that Dany spurned Quentyn. That means the Martells are no longer honor-bound to actually try to work with Dany. The marriage contract Darry and Oberyn made is now officially dead. Dany cannot expect to get any help from Dorne now.

Gerris is not going to lie though. And no they are not honorbound but I believe they will support her anyway. And she has dragons.

3 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

So what? Dorne resisted the dragons before. And the Blackfyres are irrelevant to all this. There are two Targaryen pretenders, no Blackfyres

The writing is full of symbolism.

3 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

The Ironborn are with Euron. He only left a token force to die on the Shield Islands. And right now he is not targeting Oldtown. He is targeting the Arbor and the Redwyne fleet

 

From the Winds of Winter

Spoiler

 

“Count yourself blessed, Damphair,” said Stonehand. “We are going back to sea. The Redwyne fleet creeps toward us. The winds have been against them rounding Dorne, but they’re finally near enough to have emboldened the old women in Oldtown, so now Leyton Hightower’s sons move down the Whispering Sound in hopes of catching us in the rear.”

“You know what it’s like to be caught in the rear, don’t you?” said the Red Oarsman, laughing.

Sounds to me very much like they are waiting for Oldtown forces to come out .