Let's speculate about the future roles of Willas and Garlan

[Lord Varys]

7 hours ago, Makk said:

We don't have a Randyll point of view, but why wouldn't he want it? It was the most valuable tract of land given as a prize, but he stayed loyal and should have inherited it through his wife.

Not if the Florents are attainted which they were. And if only Alester were then the title should have gone to Alekyne Florent, Alester's son who was, as far as we know, did not declare for Stannis.

For all we know Tarly is perfectly fine with Mace securing the Brightwater for Garlan. They might even have talked about this before and Mace might have ensured that Tarly got exactly what he wanted out of that council session. They set prizes aside for him, after all.

7 hours ago, Makk said:

A misconception? Tyrion says it as well.

There is something like personal achievements and heroics/leadership qualities in battle, to be sure. What is less clear is if Mace is doing something dishonorable or wrong by claiming he defeated Robert. It was his army, after all. Now, Mace certainly makes somewhat of a fool of himself by stressing the fact he won at Ashford again and again since he was not actually personally there. But people also know that Tarly did the actual work so nobody is misrepresenting or misunderstanding things.

7 hours ago, Makk said:

I think your argument claiming that Mace Tyrell's positioning won the battle, is quite weak by itself. Additionally is there even any evidence to suggest that Mace was a general?

Sure, it was his army. The Reach forces fighting for the Targaryens during the Rebellion who later also besieged Storm's End were under the command of Mace Tyrells (and the naval forces under the command of Paxter Redwyne). It is explicitly mentioned that Tarly merely commander Mace's vanguard. Whenever the commander of a vanguard, rearguard, or whatever subsection of an army wins a battle for some reason the battle itself was still won by its supreme commander. If Robb's vanguard under the Blackfish won a victory of an enemy army the victory would still belong to Robb as the supreme commander (and king) of said army.

7 hours ago, Makk said:

Aerys was the ultimate commander, but the general at that time who would have been ordering both Tarly and Mace would probably be Jon Connington or possibly his predecessor.

Nope, there is no hint for that. Owen Merryweather encouraged the Stormlords who tried to defeat Robert at Summerhall to turn against their lord but nothing indicates he was ever participating in anything. Perhaps he also wrote to Mace Tyrell. But perhaps Aerys II himself did, or Mace decided to do something on his own. He is the Warden of South, after all.

In any case, we definitely know that Mace was the supreme commander on the field of an army of Reach men, his own bannermen, vassals, sworn swords, and levies. It is clear that he has the right to claim a victory, and not one of his lieutenants. That doesn't mean that that lieutenant cannot be a much better commander than he is but it doesn't change the fact that the really powerful people can claim the victory and the glory. This is not an egalitarian society.

7 hours ago, Makk said:

When has he ever been rewarded properly for his service? With minor titles? As was just pointed out above the Tyrells could have been seen to actually steal Brightwater from him.

Only if we assume he considers to have any claim to Brightwater through his wife. Which I kind of doubt. Else the man would have sided with Stannis.

7 hours ago, Makk said:

What he thinks of Mooton is irrelevant. He made the betrothal for some reason. Most likely it is to acquire control over a relatively powerful house in the riverlands.

Perhaps Eleanor is just a good match for Dickon? Lord William Mooton has sons of his own. Once Tarly has left Maidenpool for good (which actually seems to be the case) he is not going to control anything up there.

7 hours ago, Makk said:

I did think the fact that it is a Targaryen loyalist house to be somewhat interesting although it is a very minor point. In any event I think it shows that he is politically motivated to acquire more power and influence.

That is the case for any lord. It does not indicate that Tarly wants to betray his liege lord or defect to a doomed pretender like Aegon. Tarly knows how competent a commander he is. He has the numerical advantage, especially if he led the majority of the Reach men in KL (30,000-40,000 men) against Aegon. He should be more than confident that he can crush the Golden Company and whatever allies they have gathered by the time he does. And when he does that he can continue to acquire even more power at the court of the puppet king Tommen.

His path to ultimate power goes through Tommen, not Aegon. For Aegon he would just be another turncloak who would have to earn his trust. Aegon has the Golden Company officers to reward once he becomes king, not throw titles and lands at already wealthy and powerful Reach lords.

7 hours ago, Makk said:

Arianne is being sent there to determine whether he is what he says he is. Use your imagination. Perhaps there is a birthmark, or perhaps she will interrogate Connington and be less gullible sensing falseness in the story.

Arianne is not stupid but what should she do when the news about Dany's marriage to Hizdahr, her alleged death, and the story about Quentyn's rejection and demise arrive? Hope that Dany is not death and will come to Westeros in ten years or so? By then things will be settled in Westeros. And she and Dorne want to avenge Elia, Rhaenys, and Oberyn. The path to all that will be Aegon, never mind whether he is the real deal or not. She could even decided that she doesn't believe the story at all only to use him for her own ends - revenge.

Doran was stupid enough to leave the decision of peace or war to her. And once she sends a raven to the armies in the mountains there is no turning back. Once Dorne joins the war they have to stick to Aegon or lose.

7 hours ago, Makk said:

Gerris is not going to lie though.

He doesn't have to lie. He thinks Dany the bitch-queen is responsible for Quentyn's death. Just reread his last conversations with Barristan.

7 hours ago, Makk said:

And no they are not honorbound but I believe they will support her anyway. And she has dragons.

The idea that there are Dornish armies waiting in the passes of the Red Mountains for another, well, year or so, doing nothing doesn't make a lot of sense. By the time Dany finally arrives Dorne would have to raise new armies because we already know that the armies in the mountains are dispersing. They have to attack soon or not at all because the men have gone back home.

7 hours ago, Makk said:

The writing is full of symbolism.

Sure, but that's not a symbol. Especially not in light of the fact that the Yronwoods joined the Blackfyres three times. This time they might pick Daenerys while the Martells go with the other guy.

As to Oldtown: The Hightower fleet seems to intend to participate in the Redwyne attempt to defeat Euron, but Euron does not intend to attack Oldtown here, he goes out to meet Paxter in battle, not the Hightowers. Once he has defeated the Redwynes he could also try to take Oldtown but this will be no easy thing. There are tens of thousands of people in Oldtown, and even if the Ironborn somebody got into the harbor and eventually controlled it that's not the same as taking the entire city. Euron could also not hope to keep Oldtown. If he wants something from there he should send an agent (say, his Faceless Man) into the city to take it for him. And perhaps he already did that, although then Jaqen would have to be another Faceless Man he controls (I doubt that this is the case, though).

The Arbor should be much easier to take and Euron should be able to capture more than enough wealth there to continue to finance his campaign. Taking the defenseless island should work with minimal losses while capturing/raiding Oldtown could easily enough be a Pyrrhic victory. If he loses, say, 5,000 or more men in the battle his Ironborn might no longer be all that keen to keep him as their king. Or he might lack the strength to take what he actually wants - the Iron Throne.

Even the battle against the Redwynes is likely to have some casualties on Euron's side. He should lose some ships and their crews, and so on.