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U.S. Politics: From Russia, With Love


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1 hour ago, Manhole Eunuchsbane said:

Just to jump back to the topic of whether or not Trump might be displaying some signs of Alzheimer's or dementia, I came across a solid video on the topic from David Pakman tonight...

 

I thought this was a pretty measured take and more than a bit convincing.

At best, this is shaky speculation.  At worst, it veers dangerously close to 'fake news.'

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20 minutes ago, r'hllor's reformed lobster said:

now trump is "absolutely considering" steps to break up the 9th circuit court

http://www.politico.com/story/2017/04/26/trump-tweets-sanctuary-cities-237620

As was noted in comments elsewhere, breaking up the court, even if legally possible, still leaves the individual judges in federal office. Hence, same judgments, different courts.

 

Also, from comments elsewhere, what most conservatives fail to grasp in their rants about 'liberal judges' is that judges rule on points of law ('is this legal') not political bias.  Law 'trumps' bias.  Hence, in theory, even conservative justices might agree, at least in part, with some of these decisions.

 

Where it gets scary are the conservative commenters calling for what amounts to flat out suppression of both the media and the courts. 

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I found this article interesting on the rates of cases overturned by the district courts (the 9th is NOT the most overturned by the way)

In particular:

Quote

 

  1. 6th Circuit - 87 percent;
  2. 11th Circuit - 85 percent;

  3. 9th Circuit - 79 percent;

  4. 3rd Circuit - 78 percent;

  5. 2nd Circuit and Federal Circuit - 68 percent;

  6. 8th Circuit - 67 percent;

  7. 5th Circuit - 66 percent;

  8. 7th Circuit - 48 percent;

  9. DC Circuit - 45 percent;

  10. 1st Circuit and 4th Circuit - 43 percent;

  11. 10th Circuit - 42 percent. <snip>

The 9th Circuit is by far the largest circuit. In the 12 months leading up to March, 31, 2015, just under 12,000 cases were filed in the 9th Circuit — more than 4,000 more than the next-largest circuit, the 5th Circuit. Despite that gigantic docket, the Supreme Court heard just 11 cases from the 9th Circuit in 2015, reversing eight.

This means the Supreme Court generally reverses far less than 1 percent of all the cases the 9th Circuit (and other circuits) decide.

"Given the small numbers of cases involved, it can be difficult to draw any serious conclusions from such statistics about the quality of the courts involved," Gelbach said. "Having said that, the 9th Circuit does seem to consistently have a high reversal rate over time."

 

 

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10 hours ago, Fragile Bird said:

Lol, after the big announcement Trump was going to sign the required notice to cancel NAFTA, Trump spoke to the PM of Canada and the president of Mexico tonight and agreed not to send out the notice.

Turd.

Serious question, can any major country risk making deals with Trump, given how erratic he is?

 

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I hate this man with a passion. He's the fucking President of the United States (even if they can't get the proper number of stars correct on the flag) and yet he is dividing and alienating 60% of the country with flat out lies. I cannot stress how much I hate being an American right now.

 

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2 hours ago, Mexal said:

I hate this man with a passion. He's the fucking President of the United States (even if they can't get the proper number of stars correct on the flag) and yet he is dividing and alienating 60% of the country with flat out lies. I cannot stress how much I hate being an American right now.

 

Good lord, those are the rantings and ravings of a crazy person. 

Spicer is gonna have fun today.....

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2 minutes ago, Tywin et al. said:

Good lord, those are the rantings and ravings of a crazy person. 

Spicer is gonna have fun today.....

He clearly didn't write them but they definitely came from his dictation.

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15 hours ago, Triskan said:

I wonder if the goal is to try to pass something in the House even if it's DOA in the Senate just so some of them can claim that they did their part.  But I'm not sure they can find something that pleases the Freedom Caucus and the few but essential to pass something moderate Republicans in the House like Freylinghausen.  The interests of those two groups appear to be pretty much in direct conflict.  At a certain point I would have thought that the House GOP would have figured the least bad way out of this hole they've dug is to stop trying to pass anything and stop talking about it.  

The latest informal whip counts suggest the newest version of the bill is probably already dead. Republicans can afford 22 defections (would be 23, but Chaffetz is disappearing for a month for emergency surgery and recovery back in Utah); right now there are 21 solid nays and "dozens" of 'uncertains' including by a lot of members who were onboard with earlier versions of the bill.

And this was this morning; before the AMA, AARP, and all the rest came out against the bill again. And supposedly one of Pelosi's conditions for Democratic support for the one-week funding bill was that there'd be no health care vote this week; meaning even more time for outrage to build against the latest draft.

House Republicans may pass something similar to this in the end; they all feel enormous pressure to say they did something, even if the Senate doesn't move on it. Because at least then they can blame the Senate; and the Freedom Caucus are always the most disciplined at actually voting no. But its a hard ask to make people take a tough vote on a dead bill. And if this bill doesn't thread the needle for the Freedom Caucus and Tuesday Group; I don't know what can.

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10 hours ago, ThinkerX said:

At best, this is shaky speculation.  At worst, it veers dangerously close to 'fake news.'

Speculative for sure, but I don't see how you can call it Fake News when the commentator doesn't make any claim, and he includes all the proper disclaimers. I think the comparisons between Reagan and Trump are pretty damn compelling. We know for a fact that Reagan was suffering from Alzheimer's during his second term, and Trump is providing many of the same tells that Ronnie did.  

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6 minutes ago, Manhole Eunuchsbane said:

He has stated that he dictates most of his Tweets to an executive assistant. It's pretty obvious when he's not doing this, due to spelling and syntax errors and the like.

Got it. I was curious if Mex meant it came from the Apple account instead of his own. That said, it doesn't change the fact that what was being tweeted is insane. 

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NPR had an interesting hour long episode on how small and medium size business leaders view Trump's tax proposals. Long story short, they were gushing. And while they did make some fair points, there was one important word they never mentioned:automation. They seemed to be under the delusion and businesses are just going to hire a lot of people with their tax savings, but that doesn't make a ton of sense unless demand increases significantly, and it's not the most strategic long term plan. My mom owns a manufacturing business that employees 50-60 people, and she flat out said that all the money she'd invest into her company from the tax savings would go towards new a better equipment that would allow her to down size her work force because long term she's going to save and make a lot more money that way.

http://the1a.org/shows/2017-04-27/trumps-tax-plan-under-audit

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42 minutes ago, Fez said:

I'm gonna go ahead and say no fucking way Congress passes this plan.

Supposedly that's not the case.

 

What an incredible clusterfuck of a government.

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8 minutes ago, Kalbear said:

Supposedly that's not the case.

 

What an incredible clusterfuck of a government.

JHC does the new healthcare bill cover Trump induced whiplash?  Cuz we're gonna need it. 

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