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War Drums: North Korea edition


kuenjato

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1 hour ago, norwaywolf123 said:

Would not China and Russia be fools to support sanctions on north korea?

Uhh?  No?

China and Russia like NK being a pest to the US and preventing SK from becoming any stronger.  But that is not a free pass for NK to do whatever they want.  Because no country, including China and Russia, want an unpredictable nuclear armed country right on their border.  Just because NK and China/Russia have been pretty friendly most of the time doesn't mean that will be the case in 5, 10 or 20 years. 

The ideal situation for China and Russia is for North Korea to be stable and consistently in opposition to the West.  China does NOT want NK to grow so bellicose that they bring more US military resources into the region.  They definitely don't want NK to start a war that they will inevitably lose and result in millions of North Koreans flooding over the border into China. 

That's not to say that China and Russia will necessarily support sanctions, I think they will make some small enforcement efforts at first, and gradually return to business as usual.  But it is quite possible that NK has overplayed it's hand (they do that regularly), and China wants to punish them to make sure they stay loyal patrons. 

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46 minutes ago, Tywin et al. said:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/post-politics/wp/2017/08/08/trump-vows-north-korea-will-be-met-with-fire-and-fury-if-threats-continue/?hpid=hp_hp-top-table-main_nkorea-345pm%3Ahomepage%2Fstory&utm_term=.41b92b7f5ddf

Quote

Appearing at an event at his Bedminster, N.J., golf club, where Trump is on a 17-day “working vacation,” he said that “North Korea best not make any more threats of the United States.”

“They will be met with the fire and fury and frankly power, the likes of which this world has never seen before,” Trump said.

Did he just watch the most recent Game of Thrones episode? FFS. 

/Trump doing his Dany -- https://68.media.tumblr.com/13e89036a39ac701a0b5ba8e98574f5b/tumblr_o9gglmTI8S1u17vtqo8_500.gif

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5 minutes ago, Fez said:

But he's the peace candidate! Don't you remember?!

I miss Lincoln. The OG of peace candidates, Chafe-master Flash.

http://www.cnn.com/videos/politics/2015/10/23/lincoln-chafee-drops-out-2016-election-dnc-meeting.cnn

"And it worked! They ended the Peloponnesian wars!"

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3 minutes ago, Which Tyler said:

What will increasing hostility with NKorea do to Trump's popularity? What about the Rep party in general?

 

Would they be quite so cynical as to... erm... encourage hostility?

Sadly, that's the first thing I thought of when I read the article with the intelligence reports indicating new estimates for their nuclear capability.  'Sounds like they are beginning to make the case for war'.

Smells remotely of 'WMD'.

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4 minutes ago, Swordfish said:

Sadly, that's the first thing I thought of when I read the article with the intelligence reports indicating new estimates for their nuclear capability.  'Sounds like they are beginning to make the case for war'.

Smells remotely of 'WMD'.

The situations aren't really comparable, since NK definitely has nukes.  Estimates vary on how many, and how effectively they could be delivered, but they definitely have them. 

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12 minutes ago, Which Tyler said:

What will increasing hostility with NKorea do to Trump's popularity? What about the Rep party in general?

 

Would they be quite so cynical as to... erm... encourage hostility?

I don't think it's just Trump, but yes - it would absolutely increase popularity.

But the press - the releases, the increased panic, the drives towards things - these are all indicative of a country moving towards a war footing. This isn't just Trump - this is Defense leaks, this is interviews with higher ups, this is the press machine gearing the country towards the expectation of a war. And yes, that'll help Trump's numbers. 

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1 minute ago, Maithanet said:

The situations aren't really comparable, since NK definitely has nukes.  Estimates vary on how many, and how effectively they could be delivered, but they definitely have them. 

I'm not disputing that they already have nukes.  I'm not even saying that's what's happening.  I'm just saying, it's convenient timing.

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27 minutes ago, Kalbear said:

I don't think it's just Trump, but yes - it would absolutely increase popularity.

With one caveat, so long it's not a complete humanitarian disaster, it will absolutely spike his popularity, at least in the short term.

33 minutes ago, Swordfish said:

Sadly, that's the first thing I thought of when I read the article with the intelligence reports indicating new estimates for their nuclear capability.  'Sounds like they are beginning to make the case for war'.

Smells remotely of 'WMD'.

Yeah I had the same feeling. 

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1 hour ago, Swordfish said:

So much for the policy of 'strategic patience'.

Certainly raises the question of whether we'll be going through this same song and dance with Iran in a decade or so.

Trump is already pushing towards this now with tasking his aides to make up reasons to de-certify Iran's compliance with the Iran deal even if the intelligence doesn't support that. 

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4 minutes ago, Tywin et al. said:

With one caveat, so long it's not a complete humanitarian disaster, it will absolutely spike his popularity, at least in the short term.

I'm not sure that that matters, sadly. Yemen is a complete humanitarian disaster and barely showed up as a blip for Obama or Trump. The Syrian refugee crisis where you have 5 year olds covered in dust and blood didn't move the needle in behavior for that, either. I'd amend it to say that unless it's a complete humanitarian disaster where Americans are killed, it'll spike his popularity.

Of course, people not being able to get smart phones, refrigerators, cars, or any computer whatsoever for the next 3-5 years might also cause a slight decline. 

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Just now, Kalbear said:

I'm not sure that that matters, sadly. Yemen is a complete humanitarian disaster and barely showed up as a blip for Obama or Trump. The Syrian refugee crisis where you have 5 year olds covered in dust and blood didn't move the needle in behavior for that, either. I'd amend it to say that unless it's a complete humanitarian disaster where Americans are killed, it'll spike his popularity.

Of course, people not being able to get smart phones, refrigerators, cars, or any computer whatsoever for the next 3-5 years might also cause a slight decline. 

There are 28,500 US troops in South Korea and another 50,000 in Japan (not including the 40k support personnel). Any war with NK will kill Americans and a very large amount of them.

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3 minutes ago, Kalbear said:

I'm not sure that that matters, sadly. Yemen is a complete humanitarian disaster and barely showed up as a blip for Obama or Trump. The Syrian refugee crisis where you have 5 year olds covered in dust and blood didn't move the needle in behavior for that, either. I'd amend it to say that unless it's a complete humanitarian disaster where Americans are killed, it'll spike his popularity.

Of course, people not being able to get smart phones, refrigerators, cars, or any computer whatsoever for the next 3-5 years might also cause a slight decline. 

Sorry I have to run so this answer will be too short, but you do raise some valid points. That said, it could blow up in his face if this triggers an unnecessary nuclear war that destabilizes the entire region, which is completely possible.

Either way though, war seems inevitable now. Trump lacks the political skills and basic common sense to find a way to avoid it, and at his core, he probably wants it. Gotta show the world how strong he is and all that. 

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Just now, Tywin et al. said:

Sorry I have to run so this answer will be too short, but you do raise some valid points. That said, it could blow up in his face if this triggers an unnecessary nuclear war that destabilizes the entire region, which is completely possible.

Either way though, war seems inevitable now. Trump lacks the political skills and basic common sense to find a way to avoid it, and at his core, he probably wants it. Gotta show the world how strong he is and all that. 

Amusing to me in a lolsob way, I suspect that the key to avoiding war with Trump is in the hands of North Korea. 

Because right now, Kim Jong Un is the more reliable and stable leader

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Not every war produces a rally-around-the-flag effect; that only happens when the opposition party and enough usually adversarial organizations decide to support the President and only lasts for as long as they do. Obama seemed to get it for about a week for Libya and that was it. Bush got it to the greatest extent possible after 9/11 and it last for years. Clinton didn't get it all for Somalia, Kosovo, or the embassy or USS Cole bombings. Bush Sr. got it for the Gulf War but it disappeared before the next election.

We don't really have any good examples besides 9/11 and so if Trump preemptively starts a war with N. Korea I wouldn't be so sure it would budge people's feelings. If he does it after a nuke lands on the West Coast, that'd be a different story.

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31 minutes ago, Mexal said:

Trump is already pushing towards this now with tasking his aides to make up reasons to de-certify Iran's compliance with the Iran deal even if the intelligence doesn't support that. 

What did the intelligence say about North Korea?  

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