so what are the chances that jon snow will actually die permanently? or come back evil

[myhalfgroat]

On 4/27/2017 at 7:58 AM, acwill07 said:

 I wouldn't be surprised if he hands his command off to someone a la the show, and then heads south.

ahh! don't mention the show unless you're being derisive! if no one talks about it, it'll go away. this is my safe space and all must pretend there is no tv adaptation called GoT that has won the most Emmy's ever. something something bullsh*t DD something something moneygrab something hyberbolic-statement something

in other news, I think you may be right about that. I'm on the fence about whether he'll "resign" or if he'll just say "I'm the LC and I'm sending myself on a mission to unite humanity. peace out Ed, she's all yours."

I also don't think there's anyone that's gonna hold his feet to the fire if he were to say he's leaving because he was stabbed to death. I just have a hard time picturing someone making that argument.

[The Weirwoods Eyes]

@Nevets I just don't see Stannis losing the battle.  We've been told several times that Stannis is a great battle commander, and the location is set up so that he has a good natural advantage in the lake of rotten ice and the beacon.  

Not to mention that Shireen and Selyse are at the wall and likely remaining there until he has secured Winterfell. But we know that 

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Shireen will be burnt by Stannis, as D&D let slip in DVD extras that GRRM told them this and it is why they had him do it in the show.

 

 

 

 

 

So with the geographical obstacle currently in place that prevents this, we have to assume he will take WF in order for them to be reunited. But that he won't hold it - because Sansa and LF need to rock up there at some point in the last third of TWOW I'd guess,  now there are several ways which that can pan out, a mortal wound, a wound that festers, an illness which sweeps the castle, or suicide as a result of the thing in the spoiler box. 

So back to why he has to take WF and then loose it. LF has no intention of moving on WF whilst the winter holds, that much is clear from his relaying of the plan to Sansa in AFFC. It sounds like a long term plan which involves a lot of waiting around for Cersei to implode and the Bolton-Frey alliance to be weakened, Tyrion to be declared dead and Robert Arryn to die. Plus it makes no sense to wage a campaign in the north in the middle of winter. So some things have to happen in order to expedite their journey north.  

My guess is that that thing will be that WF is simply left wide open for the taking. And that simply walking in and taking it is too tempting. If Stannis routs the Boltons and their precarious line are wiped out, the remaining Freys scatter back to the Riverlands. And not long after he installs himself in WF Stannis dies. Then LF could decide there won't be a better opportunity to take the castle.

Especially as Cersei is likely to be busy and looking to loose to fAegon in the south and may likely be down to one child - and a girl to boot - at that at this point. With a weak Myrcella sitting the IT  and a Dorne-Golden Company alliance hitting the south hard, remaining Targ loyalists raising their banners for fAegon. LF taking Sansa north to sit in WF, gaining the allegiance of the Northern Lords as Ned's daughter. And wielding the power of her Cousins Vale Knights through soft power over him seems plausible.

Given that he can sit back and declare for the winner of the battle down south who will look likely to be fAegon not Cersei. Thus retaining all the power and titles he gained under her through having been on the winning side in the end, despite the fact it all should have crumbled with Cersei's defeat. Whilst simultaneously expanding his self-percieved power base to cover the North as well. Because he believes he has Sansa in the palm of his hand. LF is left sitting pretty with a shit eating grin thinking he's pulled of control over three of the 7 kingdoms and geographically the largest portion of Westeros in the process only to have it all come crashing down around his ears when Sansa's bastard brother shows up begging for grain and men to man the wall and spills the truth of Jeyne Poole's fate + anything the girl learnt of LF during her time in his brothels to Sansa.  And as the book closes Sansa has LF taken out into the courtyard and beheads him/has him beheaded.

This scenario moves Sansa and LF north in a timely manner and only requires a small movement of one other character to get the information needed to her to off LF. Whilst not interfering with or relying on a rushing of Arya's own movements north which

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in her TWOW sample chapter, she wakes from a wolf dream where she has been being called by her other - true name ie: Arya. And she is being watched as she runs through a thick dark pine forest by a weirwood with a carved face, it sounds very much like Bran is calling to Nymeria to come north as the thick pine forest sounds more like the Wolfs wood that the deciduous woodlands of the Riverlands where we know there are no carved weirwoods.  And thus I suspect Bran is calling to Arya through her wolf in order to bring her home.  

 

 

 

 

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 So Arya does not need Jeyne to motivate her to leave Braavos. Plus she still has one or two lessons to learn there before headed back to Westeros. I do believe that she will have boarded a ship however by just over midway through TWOW.Meaning she will arrive in White Harbour not too long after the slightly over half way point. Where either upon hearing her sister holds WF she'll head home and we will get the much-anticipated reunion.  Or maybe more likely she will join up with the Manderly's who by this point have recovered Rickon from Skaagos. I don't anticipate a fight between Sansa and the Manderly's though. Don't misunderstand me there; I just mean that instead of heading straight to WF she may be picked up by the Manderly's or reveal herself to them, and thus head to WF with a retinue,  protection, and supplies which is more believable given that it will be thick with snow and travelling on your own at this point will be a bit tricky.  I think the Starks are going to be reunited at WF whilst the south tears itself to bits between fAegon/Dorne & Cersei/Tyrells.  

This gives the Starks an opportunity to regroup and form a plan which they need to do. And the fact they have all been learning various skills indicates each of them has a specific role to play going forward.  

[Nevets]

14 hours ago, The Weirwoods Eyes said:

 So Arya does not need Jeyne to motivate her to leave Braavos. Plus she still has one or two lessons to learn there before headed back to Westeros. I do believe that she will have boarded a ship however by just over midway through TWOW.Meaning she will arrive in White Harbour not too long after the slightly over half way point. Where either upon hearing her sister holds WF she'll head home and we will get the much-anticipated reunion.  Or maybe more likely she will join up with the Manderly's who by this point have recovered Rickon from Skaagos. I don't anticipate a fight between Sansa and the Manderly's though. Don't misunderstand me there; I just mean that instead of heading straight to WF she may be picked up by the Manderly's or reveal herself to them, and thus head to WF with a retinue,  protection, and supplies which is more believable given that it will be thick with snow and travelling on your own at this point will be a bit tricky.  I think the Starks are going to be reunited at WF whilst the south tears itself to bits between fAegon/Dorne & Cersei/Tyrells.  

This gives the Starks an opportunity to regroup and form a plan which they need to do. And the fact they have all been learning various skills indicates each of them has a specific role to play going forward.  

I don't want to draw the thread too far OT so I'll be brief.  I think the only way Arya goes to White Harbor is if she hears about the Northerners from Jeyne or wishes to visit Jon at the Wall.  (As I've said before, Arya's is the hardest story for me to figure out.  While I like the idea of her meeting Jeyne in Braavos I am not wedded to it).  I think she could just as easily end up in the Riverlands, where she last saw Nymeria, and where she might expect to find friendly faces who can vouch for her identity.  (So far as she knows, nobody in White Harbor will be able to recognize her).

As for Rickon, I seriously doubt he will make it south of the wall before the end of TWOW, if then.  My guess is that Davos will get caught in the Hardhome evac, and then wind up in the Land of Always Winter.  I think it highly unlikely that Davos's mission will be a simple out-and-back.  GRRM doesn't play that way.

[Azor Azai]

On 4/26/2017 at 3:14 AM, Yucef Menaerys said:

I think the show answered that question pretty well, this is just one amongst some few parts of the show that I think the books are going to stay true to

The books are going to stay true to??? I just vomited a little. The books are canon, the show is fan fiction.  

[a black swan]

15 hours ago, The Weirwoods Eyes said:

~snip~

Robb's Will conveniently goes unmentioned?

What is Jon doing for most of TWOW? 

I love how LF/Sansa have become such central characters.  

What's Bran doing all this time? Sitting in his cave turning into a tree?

Jeyne may have been Sansa's friend a lifetime ago. But George has clearly hooked Jeyne into Arya's story very intricately. Where you saw no need/impact of these two meeting... I just dunno why? How you think Bran alone can lure Arya back home via her wolf dreams... unless he straight up talks to her... how do you think the message will come across and be understood by Arya? Jeyne plays an important role in Arya's personal journey. The two can help eachother. It would be weird for both girls and uncomfortable but so very interesting.

Even in Theon's Winds chapter, we have the importance and value of being Arya thrust on poor Jeyne as she starts to lose parts of her own face. Going to Braavos is far more likely - and finding Arya at whatever stage of her training (most likely with a courtesan & now flowered so who knows what state of mind she'll be in) that will have a huge impact on Arya Stark and moving her story forward in a very unexpected way.  

I agree with @Nevets stopping through the Riverlands is very obvious. She has too much unfinished business out there. Sge needs to find Nymeria and meet her "mother" once again. Arya's remaining Braavos chapters will likely be very condensed.  

Her connections with Bran via the trees and possibly through wolf dreams - I think that has another purpose: Arya's return to the Gods Eye in ADoS as the grey girl on a dying horse where she visits the Isle of Faces. 

[The Weirwoods Eyes]

7 hours ago, Nevets said:

I don't want to draw the thread too far OT so I'll be brief.  I think the only way Arya goes to White Harbor is if she hears about the Northerners from Jeyne or wishes to visit Jon at the Wall.  (As I've said before, Arya's is the hardest story for me to figure out.  While I like the idea of her meeting Jeyne in Braavos I am not wedded to it).  I think she could just as easily end up in the Riverlands, where she last saw Nymeria, and where she might expect to find friendly faces who can vouch for her identity.  (So far as she knows, nobody in White Harbor will be able to recognize her).

As for Rickon, I seriously doubt he will make it south of the wall before the end of TWOW, if then.  My guess is that Davos will get caught in the Hardhome evac, and then wind up in the Land of Always Winter.  I think it highly unlikely that Davos's mission will be a simple out-and-back.  GRRM doesn't play that way.

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Did you read the spoiler boxes?   White harbour is just the logical port to go to as it is the closest Westerosi port to Braavos. And gets her furthest north in one journey. I think the snippet of info from her TWOW chapter is far more telling as to where the story is headed than fan theories.  Jeyne may indeed go to braavos and she may even meet Arya but I think I'd rather use the text to guess at what will happen when there is text available. in order for Arya to be motivated to leave Braavos Arya needs to think she can find her siblings and be herself again and that there is something worth going home for.  Meeting Jeyne doesn't really offer her anything. Jeyne does not know Sansa is alive or where she is, she does not know Manderly has sent Davos to collect Rickon, or that Bran is alive. She will know about Jon being LC of the NW and that he is alive. But Arya already knows Jon is LC of the NW and that did not push her to leave when she learnt it.

Spoiler

But Bran communicating with her in her wolf dreams can tell her so much more about her siblings.  Nymeria is not looking like she is still in the Riverlands so why would Arya go back there? 

 

I too think Rickon is likely going to perish in TWOW. But I think it will be later on than you think. I think he'll make it back to WF thanks to Manderly and Davos. And that Davos will switch his allegiance after he returns to find that Stannis is dead. Sticking by Rickons side and that the boy just dies of something really unspectacular. say a winter chill. There is a lot of talk in the books of such deaths and I think it likely at least on of our younger child characters will have this fate. 

 

[The Weirwoods Eyes]

6 hours ago, DutchArya said:

Robb's Will conveniently goes unmentioned?

What is Jon doing for most of TWOW? 

I love how LF/Sansa have become such central characters.  

What's Bran doing all this time? Sitting in his cave turning into a tree?

Jeyne may have been Sansa's friend a lifetime ago. But George has clearly hooked Jeyne into Arya's story very intricately. Where you saw no need/impact of these two meeting... I just dunno why? How you think Bran alone can lure Arya back home via her wolf dreams... unless he straight up talks to her... how do you think the message will come across and be understood by Arya? Jeyne plays an important role in Arya's personal journey. The two can help eachother. It would be weird for both girls and uncomfortable but so very interesting.

Even in Theon's Winds chapter, we have the importance and value of being Arya thrust on poor Jeyne as she starts to lose parts of her own face. Going to Braavos is far more likely - and finding Arya at whatever stage of her training (most likely with a courtesan & now flowered so who knows what state of mind she'll be in) that will have a huge impact on Arya Stark and moving her story forward in a very unexpected way.  

I agree with @Nevets stopping through the Riverlands is very obvious. She has too much unfinished business out there. Sge needs to find Nymeria and meet her "mother" once again. Arya's remaining Braavos chapters will likely be very condensed.  

Her connections with Bran via the trees and possibly through wolf dreams - I think that has another purpose: Arya's return to the Gods Eye in ADoS as the grey girl on a dying horse where she visits the Isle of Faces. 

 

Robbs will is a seperate factor which I think will come out later on in the story .I think Jon will be at CB learning how to use his warg powers properly with Boraq as his tutor and forming a relationship with Val, that we'll be learning more about the Wildling culture legends of how the Others can be dealt with, why Val thinks Greyscale is so dangerous in children, and the Old Gods and how they are worshipped north of the wall and what the Northerners have lost and forgotton about their faith. I think we'll see more from Mellisandre as she tries to get her head round loosing Stannis and what her visions mean. And I think he will be focused on working out how to defeat the Others. 

Well the story is multi layered there is a webb of charachters who have to come together and whose storylines intersect and cross over. Sansa & LF's looks to be one which will do so with Jon's. Mostly because her story will be taking her North to WF as her inner monolouge informs us this is her goal. And the foreshadowing points that way too. And Jon is based in the North and in desperate need of supplies and soilders. She has both.  

Bran is sitting in the cave learning about being a greenseer, and how to fight the Others, And he is 

Spoiler

trying to contact his siblings. We know he's been trying to reach Theon, as it is in both the chapter at WF where Theon presents Jeyne to marry Ramsey and in his TWOW sample chapter.  And in Arya's Mercy chapter, where he has been calling to her through her wolf dreams and as a result Nymeria is now in the north again. He's watching her through a  carved Weirwood tree as she runs through a pine forest.  

 

And I think he'll try to contact Sansa as well. Sansa spent a lot of time in the Gods Wood in KL, and at the Eyrie bemoaned the lack of a heart tree, complaining the Eyrie felt as godless as she did. So now that she is on teh Vale floor I think she will go to the Gods Wood at the Bloody Gate and he will attempt to speak to her there. 

Jeyne was Sansa's friend. She recalls the girl over the course of the books and in TWOW Alayne I 

Spoiler

She remembers her again and tells us about the two of them racing across WF's courtyard with Arya trailing behind, as she recreates this game with Myranda Royce. 

 

jeyne still matters to Sansa, and Jeyne's information pertains to LF who is Sansa's to deal with. I don't see why you think that her being able to inform Jon of LF's crimes towards herself and possibly in regards to Ned and teh Starks negates her going to braavos and also meeting Arya? I mean logistically both are perfectly possible. 

I already pointed out Nymeria is no longer in the RL. There are no carved weirwoods in the forrests there.  

Also I really do not buy the Grey Girl being Arya and not Alys theory I read that thread when it first started and it does not convince me at all. 

[Orphalesion]

Right now?

0% on both accounts.

Once the Endgame starts? Who knows...

[a black swan]

 

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Robbs will is a seperate factor which I think will come out later on in the story

Why?

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I think Jon will be at CB learning how to use his warg powers properly with Boraq as his tutor and forming a relationship with Val, that we'll be learning more about the Wildling culture legends of how the Others can be dealt with, why Val thinks Greyscale is so dangerous in children, and the Old Gods and how they are worshipped north of the wall and what the Northerners have lost and forgotton about their faith. I think we'll see more from Mellisandre as she tries to get her head round loosing Stannis and what her visions mean. And I think he will be focused on working out how to defeat the Others. 

That is half a books worth of Jon chapters? Unlikely. What a calm, thoughtful Jon to remain at CB like a good undead LC. Nah, I think he will come back changed somewhat, more wilder and emotional. I think he will be "dead" long enough to miss Jeyne's arrival. In the company of Tycho and Co. Jeyne is taken to Braavos like Jon hoped she would once Arya arrived to the Wall. So you say look at the text and that is what I'm doing.

 

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Well the story is multi layered there is a webb of charachters who have to come together and whose storylines intersect and cross over. Sansa & LF's looks to be one which will do so with Jon's. Mostly because her story will be taking her North to WF as her inner monolouge informs us this is her goal. And the foreshadowing points that way too. And Jon is based in the North and in desperate need of supplies and soilders. She has both.

Yes, that's what some people here seem to desire and *want* to happen. But you have to suspend disbelief and assume everything LF is planning is his true intention and not a folly he is feeding Sansa to keep her dependent on him. There is a lot to her Vale plot that needs to be resolved before she can leave.

 

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Bran is sitting in the cave learning about being a greenseer, and how to fight the Others, And he is 

At some point in Winds, I think Bran will leave his cave, especially after what happens to Hodor.

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jeyne still matters to Sansa, and Jeyne's information pertains to LF who is Sansa's to deal with. I don't see why you think that her being able to inform Jon of LF's crimes towards herself and possibly in regards to Ned and teh Starks negates her going to braavos and also meeting Arya? I mean logistically both are perfectly possible. 

Jeyne is not the only avenue Sansa can be given that information. I don't think Jon will be alive when Jeyne arrives at the Wall.

What I'm saying is Jeyne matters more to Arya's story and George continues to emphasis this in the text. Getting her to Braavos will take time and she will likely leave soon after arriving at the Wall to find no help with Jon now "dead". The people travelling with her Tycho and Justin all have ties with Braavos and will be heading there after the detour to the Wall to return her to Jon. When they find out Jon is dead, they will go back to Braavos and Justin will start his mission of buying an army for Stannis. Some people have argued that Tycho might know more about this fArya, especially if the ties with the HoBW are as close as some think with the Iron Bank.

 

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I already pointed out Nymeria is no longer in the RL. There are no carved weirwoods in the forrests there.  

I agree that is possible. Perhaps, after leaving the Riverlands heading North, Arya will find her direwolf there.

 

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Also I really do not buy the Grey Girl being Arya and not Alys theory I read that thread when it first started and it does not convince me at all. 

What is not convincing to you? Just wondering

 

[Nevets]

15 hours ago, The Weirwoods Eyes said:

White harbour is just the logical port to go to as it is the closest Westerosi port to Braavos. And gets her furthest north in one journey.

Actually, from the maps I've seen, Braavos is due east of the Fingers, which would mean that Gulltown and even maidenpool are probably closer than Whtie Harbor.  I expect most traffic from Braavos heads south as that is where the population and economic centers are.  As for Nymeria's current location, whether or not she is in the north, Arya is going to assume she is in the Riverlands, unless she sees something specifically recognizable through Nymeria's eyes.  Winterfell is the only place I can think of that she would easily recognize.

15 hours ago, The Weirwoods Eyes said:

jeyne still matters to Sansa, and Jeyne's information pertains to LF who is Sansa's to deal with. I don't see why you think that her being able to inform Jon of LF's crimes towards herself and possibly in regards to Ned and teh Starks negates her going to braavos and also meeting Arya? I mean logistically both are perfectly possible

 The only way Jeyne goes to Braavos is as "Arya Stark", so if she meets Jon that would require him going along with her masquerade and not outing her as a fake, which is possible but probably not likely.  There is no way anyone is going to be willing to expend money and other resources to transport and house "Jeyne Poole" in Braavos.  

[Quoth the raven,]

There is a decent chance that Jon stays dead.  There is an even better chance that he comes back as a wight, a slave of the great other.  I have always figured Jon will side with the white walkers.  He is ice all the way through just like his Stark siblings and the story is about the battle between ice and fire. 

[HaeSuse]

On 4/25/2017 at 9:25 PM, DixiesArcher said:

No chance he doesn't come back and he's far from done. Even a hater has to admit that. 

I'm a Jon hater, and I still have to admit that. There is no chance at all that he doesn't come back, or comes back evil. Not even a fart in the wind's chance.

[Moiraine Sedai]

14 minutes ago, HaeSuse said:

I'm a Jon hater, and I still have to admit that. There is no chance at all that he doesn't come back, or comes back evil. Not even a fart in the wind's chance.

He comes back as an ice thrall and works his way up to Nights king.  Arya will die and be his ice queen.

[HaeSuse]

51 minutes ago, Moiraine Sedai said:

He comes back as an ice thrall and works his way up to Nights king.  Arya will die and be his ice queen.

Kaboom.

[Dragonsbone]

Zero point zero percent on both scenarios I would say. Not coming back? Then his whole story is a shagydog story. You can do this with a minor character bit not with one of the main characters. This is just awfull writing. Become bad? Why? There are a lot of bad characters. Why should the main charcter suddenly become bad? What is the point of it in a narrative and literal way? That would be a very nihilistic view of the world and it does not fit the tone of ASOIAF. 

1 hour ago, Moiraine Sedai said:

He comes back as an ice thrall and works his way up to Nights king.  Arya will die and be his ice queen.

Only to be finally defeated by Hot Pie, who in the mean time learned about his true Targaryen heritage and learned how to make Valyrian Steel .