Who tried to kill Bran?

[Chris Mormont]

It was Littlefinger and here is how and why:

How- Littlefinger always has his spies about, he would definitely have had at least one riding with the King to Winterfell, and that spy would have been provided the means, i.e. ravens, to communicate with LF.  LF hears, either from an official raven or his spy's raven, about Bran.  He then sends instructions that if the King leaves and Bran is still alive, to kill him using a VS dagger from the King's armory.  The plan, including how to get Cat out of the room is all devised by LF, the catspaw is meant to fail.  The Starks would assume it was the Lannisters and drive a wedge between the 2 houses.

Why- LF does not want Ned in Kingslanding, LF wants to be Hand.  He also knows that Ned will ask questions about Lord Arryn and that may lead to trouble.  He thinks if word reaches Ned that Bran was killed, Ned would either go home to be with Cat, or start a fight with Jamie over the Lannister involvement.  Either way, LF gets what he wants. 

Everyone talks about the reveal, well what about LF's confession to Sansa after he "rescues her" from KL?  He talked about chaos and doing things no one would expect when Sansa asked him why he killed Joff.  Well perhaps he was revealing more than just that one misdirection.

It wasn't Joff, he isn't smart enough to give instructions to the assassin, nor would he arm him with VS.  His conversation with the Hound was only referencing the wolves and their howling, he wouldn't think about Bran or "putting him out of his misery".

 

[Ser Loras The Gay]

1 minute ago, aryagonnakill#2 said:

I always assumed the dagger was the real payment.  Killing the son of a lord who is in his fathers castle and being watched 24/7 is no easy task and getting caught is certain death.

That's actually a very good anwser.

 

11 minutes ago, Good Guy Garlan said:

Of course, the question would be Why would he need a Valyrian steel dagger if any old blade would do. But the same thing applies to Joffrey. Are we supposed to believe the catspaw didn’t have a knife on him? 

Maybe as said up there, the dagger is the payment.

[Good Guy Garlan]

3 minutes ago, aryagonnakill#2 said:

I always assumed the dagger was the real payment.  Killing the son of a lord who is in his fathers castle and being watched 24/7 is no easy task and getting caught is certain death.

That's a good point.

Also, I guess it's not even that out of character for Joffrey to want to use a VS dagger. He was a dumb shit and the sheer overkill of using that weapon to kill a comatose child would've been right up his alley. Plus it's Robert's dagger, so there's a bit of that vicarious thinking or the sense to impress his dad. 

 

 

[ravenous reader]

GRRM wants us to believe Joffrey was behind Bran's assassination attempt.  How else does one explain the deliberately inserted ellipsis by the author, signalling Joffrey's momentary hesitation and confusion as he seems to trip over his words when needled in insinuating fashion about the incriminating dagger by his uncle?

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A Storm of Swords - Sansa IV

"Now there are three." Joffrey undid his old swordbelt to don his new one. "You and Lady Sansa owe me a better present, Uncle Imp. This one is all chopped to pieces."

Tyrion was staring at his nephew with his mismatched eyes. "Perhaps a knife, sire. To match your sword. A dagger of the same fine Valyrian steel . . . with a dragonbone hilt, say?"

Joff gave him a sharp look. "You . . . yes, a dagger to match my sword, good." He nodded. "A . . . a gold hilt with rubies in it. Dragonbone is too plain."

It all hinges on those three 'dots' -- dot dot dot...

The motive we've been supplied for why he would do such a thing is a bit flimsy.  Still those three incriminating little dots -- a lazy trick by the author, let's face it -- have convinced me Joffrey had to be involved in some capacity.

Still -- the unbelievable part of the whole thing is that GRRM expects us to believe that Cersei, who had the most to lose, should Bran ever regain consciousness, would merrily leave Winterfell without trying to eliminate -- let's say mercilessly 'eradicate' -- the possibility that Bran might wake from his coma and spill the beans -- her beans!

Anyway...

[Ser Loras The Gay]

3 minutes ago, ravenous reader said:

GRRM wants us to believe Joffrey was behind Bran's assassination attempt.  How else does one explain the deliberately inserted ellipsis by the author, signalling Joffrey's momentary hesitation and confusion as he seems to trip over his words when needled in insinuating fashion about the incriminating dagger by his uncle?

Actually, it could be explain that he was ready to hear a insult of some sort, but he then hear a proposal for a future gift, it could be just confusion or what you said.

[ravenous reader]

9 minutes ago, Ser Loras The Gay said:

Actually, it could be explain that he was ready to hear a insult of some sort, but he then hear a proposal for a future gift, it could be just confusion or what you said.

I wouldn't sweat it, Ser Loras.  It's one of GRRM's less well-written mysteries!

[Ferocious Veldt Roarer]

19 minutes ago, Chris Mormont said:

It was Littlefinger and here is how and why:

How- Littlefinger always has his spies about, he would definitely have had at least one riding with the King to Winterfell, and that spy would have been provided the means, i.e. ravens, to communicate with LF.  LF hears, either from an official raven or his spy's raven, about Bran.  He then sends instructions

And that's where it falls apart. The only way to send a message to Winterfell (except for a courier) would be via raven, and that means the castle's maester. That's Maester Luwin. I somehow don't see him passing a message "To: Shady Dude. Slit Bran Stark's throat. Steal Robert's Valyrian dagger" to the recipient.

[Good Guy Garlan]

11 minutes ago, ravenous reader said:

Still -- the unbelievable part of the whole thing is that GRRM expects us to believe that Cersei, who had the most to lose, should Bran ever regain consciousness, would merrily leave Winterfell without trying to eliminate -- let's say mercilessly 'eradicate' -- the possibility that Bran might wake from his coma and spill the beans -- her beans!

Anyway...

Exactly. GRRM expects us to believe that the same Cersei who wanted Jaime to chop off Arya's hand because she gave Joffrey an owie - that Cersei - wouldn't kill the kid who could doom her entire family? Yeah, right. 

[crowcrow]

 Joffrey, it is known.

[Ser Loras The Gay]

1 minute ago, Good Guy Garlan said:

Exactly. GRRM expects us to believe that the same Cersei who wanted Jaime to chop off Arya's hand because she gave Joffrey an owie - that Cersei - wouldn't kill the kid who could doom her entire family? Yeah, right. 

Cersei would do it, and wouldn't told even Jaime about it. But we don't have any mean to know that for sure. For all we know it could be anyone. But the best suspects are Cersei, Joffrey, Mance, and LF (even if we don't really know how he would've done it)

[Aegon VII]

10 minutes ago, Ferocious Veldt Roarer said:

And that's where it falls apart. The only way to send a message to Winterfell (except for a courier) would be via raven, and that means the castle's maester. That's Maester Luwin. I somehow don't see him passing a message "To: Shady Dude. Slit Bran Stark's throat. Steal Robert's Valyrian dagger" to the recipient.

That's an excellent point. So for all LF supporters, how would he have given the instruction to kill bran? Besides having prearranged the entire thing which just seems odd and too coincidental.

[ravenous reader]

11 minutes ago, Good Guy Garlan said:

Exactly. GRRM expects us to believe that the same Cersei who wanted Jaime to chop off Arya's hand because she gave Joffrey an owie - that Cersei - wouldn't kill the kid who could doom her entire family? Yeah, right. 

The same Cersei who became a murderer of a child as a child on the same night she heard a prophecy, just to prevent the dreaded prophecy from coming true!  Now suddenly, she's the soul of equanimity departing Winterfell and leaving Bran's fate -- and therefore her own fate -- in the hands of the old gods...Hmm...Poor characterization by GRRM.

We had a lively discussion previously about all these unsatisfying contradictions:

 

[Colonel Green]

11 hours ago, Snowmelter said:

Part of the problem with the assumption that Joff was behind the attempt is that it is quite obvious.  Martin loves misdirection. 

As others said, GRRM already indicated that ASOS would resolve this question.

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It would be a small thing to pay an assassin to go after Bran and it would not be stupid to arm said thug with a valyrian steel dagger, especially if it could be traced to someone else.

This is actually one of the clearest indicators why Littlefinger can't be behind it.  He made a bold, spur of the moment decision to lie about the dagger's provenance to frame Tyrion.  If he had been planning to use the dagger to frame the Lannisters all along, he would have taken the time to arrange for a weapon with an airtight chain of custody, rather than one where he had to wing it.

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 Littlefinger needs no motive other than to cause chaos

This is another misconception.  Littlefinger had definitive plans in motion at that point, and trying to assassinate one of Ned's kids is contrary to them.

10 hours ago, Ralphis Baratheon said:

Kind of off topic but whatever happened to the dagger? It was a pretty cool weapon, seems like someone would have wanted it considering how rare VS is.

Littlefinger still has it.  He took it from Ned in the throne room.

40 minutes ago, Chris Mormont said:

How- Littlefinger always has his spies about, he would definitely have had at least one riding with the King to Winterfell, and that spy would have been provided the means, i.e. ravens, to communicate with LF.  LF hears, either from an official raven or his spy's raven, about Bran.  He then sends instructions that if the King leaves and Bran is still alive, to kill him using a VS dagger from the King's armory. 

Ravens only move between fixed points.  It would be theoretically possible for Littlefinger to give a spy a raven to send back to him in KL, but it would be impossible for Littlefinger to send a reply, other than through Maester Luwin.

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The plan, including how to get Cat out of the room is all devised by LF, the catspaw is meant to fail.  The Starks would assume it was the Lannisters and drive a wedge between the 2 houses.

That's a contradiction.  If the plan was meant to fail (which is impossible, anyway), the dagger would never have been discovered, meaning it's pointless to use a VS dagger.

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Why- LF does not want Ned in Kingslanding, LF wants to be Hand.  He also knows that Ned will ask questions about Lord Arryn and that may lead to trouble.  He thinks if word reaches Ned that Bran was killed, Ned would either go home to be with Cat, or start a fight with Jamie over the Lannister involvement.  Either way, LF gets what he wants. 

This is the literal opposite of what Littlefinger wants.  He had Lysa send Ned and Catelyn that message specifically to lure them south.  Indeed, you just showed why Littlefinger trying to have Bran assassinated makes no sense, as it would actively interfere with his other plan.

[TheSeer27]

25 minutes ago, Ferocious Veldt Roarer said:

 

I'm changing my vote to Mance The more I think about it, the more it makes sense.

[Nittanian]

2 hours ago, BricksAndSparrows said:

I'll admit I would need to brush up on the argument's against Littlefinger.

But that being said, we know he was partially behind the note from Lysa that was smuggled into Luwin's quarters. That and the way he tried to obscure the truth about the dagger after the fact. These facts would certainly not bode well for Petyr Baelish if he was on trial for the attempt on Bran's life.

I'm assuming that the logistical problems come from the unlikelihood that Baelish could have communicated the instructions to his (alleged) man in Winterfell? 

SSM:

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[Did Littlefinger influence Joffrey to try and kill Bran?]

Well, Littlefinger did have a certain hidden inflouence [sic] over Joff... but he was not at Winterfell, and that needs to be remembered.

 

[Ser Loras The Gay]

We have a lot of excellent points for every side, but it's easy to conjecturize we aren't 100% sure if it was Joffrey. George can put his hand on the matter and say "it was him deal with it" but it's still a good mistery to talk about.

[Lollygag]

This SSM seems to indicate that GRRM has put more thought into the Joffrey/Bran situation than just Joff going off the rails. He spilled all of the details on Jon Arryn's murder in a single crazed rant by Lysa, but no Scooby-doo moment for Bran's attempted murder.

At best, LF could have influenced Joff in a vague way to a certain ends which he *hoped* would benefit him, but I don't see how LF could have been involved in any detailed way. He'd know that a beneficial result was far from a certainty, and it could backfire. But this fits how LF operates.

Just speculating here: he could have told Joff about how bad the Starks would be for Robert in a general way, hoping that when Joff gets mad (inevitably about something or other), LF would've given him enough of a rationalization for acting out. Basically, Joff could twist his anger into "I'm doing something kingly for the realm by hurting the Starks because the Starks will be bad for the realm. This proves what a good king I'll be."

Petyr teased her with a little smile. "In the game of thrones, even the humblest pieces can have wills of their own. Sometimes they refuse to make the moves you've planned for them. Mark that well, Alayne.

 

 

[Ser Loras The Gay]

5 minutes ago, Lollygag said:

 

This SSM seems to indicate that GRRM has put more thought into the Joffrey/Bran situation than just Joff going off the rails. He spilled all of the details on Jon Arryn's murder in a single crazed rant by Lysa, but no Scooby-doo moment for Bran's attempted murder.

 

What SSM? o.O

[Schwarze Sonne]

2 hours ago, Ser Loras The Gay said:

And how mance had a Valyrian blade dagger? 

I only mentioned what important information Mance conveyed to Jon that hinted him as the one who sent the catspaw, not whatever left he didn't mention.

Mance probably stole the dagger from Robert's stash. No one noticed that the dagger was missing. The security seemed to be very lax there.

The dagger was probably the real payment to the catspaw, except the catspaw was set up to fail by Mance since Summer was always together with Bran alongside Catelyn who neglected everything just to be with Bran. Once the catspaw was caught along with the Valyrian dagger, the Starks would immediately suspect the Baratheons (if they even knew that it belonged to Robert's), especially Joffrey who would become the likeliest suspect, and the war between them would be inevitable.

The bag of silver was probably the distraction in case people doubted why Joffrey would pay the catspaw with the expensive Valyrian dagger. The Starks might think it was loaned to the catspaw by the client, in this case Joffrey, since I can't think of anyone in their right mind would give the catspaw the most obvious evidence backtracking to them.

Also, Joffrey is unlikely to come into contact with the catspaw. Maybe the Hound contacted the catspaw, but he wouldn't be stupid as to send the Valyrian dagger to the catspaw. That was just too idiotic.

[Lollygag]

22 minutes ago, Ser Loras The Gay said:

What SSM? o.O

The one from @Nittanian a few posts above.