Who tried to kill Bran?

[Takiedevushkikakzvezdy]

3 hours ago, Ferocious Veldt Roarer said:

As Joffrey having way too high opinion of himself. Joffrey thought he was super duper smart, Tyrion's opinion of his nephew differed. Good old Preston should know at least that much about the books.

 

So Joffrey was not familiar with Valyrian steel?

[Lord Wraith]

6 hours ago, Colonel Green said:

He needs Ned to come south without an army in order to put Ned in a position of weakness.

That's only if you ignore his personal motivation of revenging himself on the Starks and the Tullys.

Well Ned wasn't going to bring an army south. He need Ned as a counterweight to the Lannister influence. Granted Baelish's true enemy was Stannis not the Starks.

[Colonel Green]

9 hours ago, John Suburbs said:

No, he doesn't "need" any of this. 

You misunderstand the word "need".  He "needs" it  because that's what he wants to happen.  He could make do any number of other ways, but fucking Ned over is very high on his list of wants, and this is the only way to go about it sensibly.

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And now that I think about it, the murder of one of his children wouldn't cause Ned to just hide in Winterfell. If would most definitely bring him south, either has Robert's new hand, where he can use the crown's resources against House Lannister, or at the head of an army marching on Casterly Rock, with Robert at his side. Plenty of chaos to go around.

Ned straight-up going to Robert and declaring war on the Lannisters means the Lannisters go down hard, as all of the other kingdoms would side with the Crown (or, in Dorne's case, probably sit it out).  Littlefinger doesn't want that.

Ned is only vulnerable if he comes south without an army.  Confirming his suspicions by making him think the Lannisters tried to assassinate his son would only make that less likely.

3 hours ago, Lord Wraith said:

Well Ned wasn't going to bring an army south. He need Ned as a counterweight to the Lannister influence. Granted Baelish's true enemy was Stannis not the Starks.

He didn't need Ned as a counterweight.  Indeed, Baelish wants the Lannisters to beat the Starks, etc., as part of his plan.  Stannis means very little to him.

[Lord Wraith]

46 minutes ago, Colonel Green said:

You misunderstand the word "need".  He "needs" it  because that's what he wants to happen.  He could make do any number of other ways, but fucking Ned over is very high on his list of wants, and this is the only way to go about it sensibly.

Ned straight-up going to Robert and declaring war on the Lannisters means the Lannisters go down hard, as all of the other kingdoms would side with the Crown (or, in Dorne's case, probably sit it out).  Littlefinger doesn't want that.

Ned is only vulnerable if he comes south without an army.  Confirming his suspicions by making him think the Lannisters tried to assassinate his son would only make that less likely.

He didn't need Ned as a counterweight.  Indeed, Baelish wants the Lannisters to beat the Starks, etc., as part of his plan.  Stannis means very little to him.

Fucking Ned is actually low on his priorities but everyone thinks the Starks are the key to everything.

Yes you are correct if Ned goes to Robert with the incest the Lannisters are toast, something Baelish is all too aware of.  The problem is that Robert isn't going to survive that encounter. His Queen is a Lannister, his squires, his executioner etc. Pycelle is a known Lannister toadie and Jaime "Kingslayer" Lannister is on the KG. House Lannister has too many people in positions of power and spies to not see this coming. Robert will die and this is make Stannis King.

Stannis as King is the very last thing that Baelish wants. He will lose everything he has gained in the past few years, frankly he will be luck not to be executed. Varys as well which is why they are working together on the Jon Arryn murder mystery. Neither want Stannis on the throne. This is why he leaked the information to Stannis. He hoped that Stannis would do something stupid but no such luck. He goes to Jon Arryn the one person that Robert might listen to. Which is why Jon Arryn had to die.

Also Robert was never going to let Ned come South with an army. Baelish has no interest in the Lannister's winning but preserving his power and position then rising higher. Ned Stark has hated the Lannisters since Robert's Rebellion he didn't need Baelish for that. Also Baelish framed the death of Jon Arryn on Cersei and everyone bought it hook line and sinker.

War was already inenvitable and Baelish was protecting his own interesting and trying to stay on the non Stannis winning side. Also I think he wanted to be Hand but that's a discussion for another time.

[Colonel Green]

27 minutes ago, Lord Wraith said:

Fucking Ned is actually low on his priorities but everyone thinks the Starks are the key to everything.

No, it's very high, because Baelish is driven above all else by grudges.

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Yes you are correct if Ned goes to Robert with the incest the Lannisters are toast, something Baelish is all too aware of.  The problem is that Robert isn't going to survive that encounter. His Queen is a Lannister, his squires, his executioner etc. Pycelle is a known Lannister toadie and Jaime "Kingslayer" Lannister is on the KG. House Lannister has too many people in positions of power and spies to not see this coming. Robert will die and this is make Stannis King.

Incorrect.  If Ned acted against the Lannisters following an assassination attempt on his son, it would be in the North, where he is guaranteed to win.  Cersei, Jaime and the kids are taken prisoner with ease, and Robert is just fine.  Then they're free to come south and deal with Tywin at leisure.

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Stannis as King is the very last thing that Baelish wants. He will lose everything he has gained in the past few years, frankly he will be luck not to be executed. Varys as well which is why they are working together on the Jon Arryn murder mystery. Neither want Stannis on the throne. This is why he leaked the information to Stannis. He hoped that Stannis would do something stupid but no such luck. He goes to Jon Arryn the one person that Robert might listen to. Which is why Jon Arryn had to die.

No, Baelish killed Jon Arryn to bring Ned south and prevent the Lannisters from being defeated, because that would be contrary to his plans to destabilize the realm, as Arryn would have been able to arrest Jaime and Cersei otherwise.

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Baelish has no interest in the Lannister's winning but preserving his power and position then rising higher.

He wanted the Lannisters to beat their rivals, because they were more corrupt, and thence he would work against them.

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War was already inenvitable

Er, no, it wasn't.  Baelish quite deliberately acted to stir up a war where none would have existed (if you believe, as you say, that he was the one who tipped off Stannis).

[Lord Wraith]

20 minutes ago, Colonel Green said:

No, it's very high, because Baelish is driven above all else by grudges.

Incorrect.  If Ned acted against the Lannisters following an assassination attempt on his son, it would be in the North, where he is guaranteed to win.  Cersei, Jaime and the kids are taken prisoner with ease, and Robert is just fine.  Then they're free to come south and deal with Tywin at leisure.

No, Baelish killed Jon Arryn to bring Ned south and prevent the Lannisters from being defeated, because that would be contrary to his plans to destabilize the realm, as Arryn would have been able to arrest Jaime and Cersei otherwise.

He wanted the Lannisters to beat their rivals, because they were more corrupt, and thence he would work against them.

Er, no, it wasn't.  Baelish quite deliberately acted to stir up a war where none would have existed (if you believe, as you say, that he was the one who tipped off Stannis).

I think he is more driven by his ambition to gain more power. Grudges come after besides Hoster Tully would be far higher on the revenge list than Ned.

Ned would have never found about about in incest alone in the North right after the assassination. I am talking about Ned going to Robert in King's Landing. The Lannister have the upper hand there and Robert would be killed by some Lannister or their retainers.

Robert had no heirs due to Cersei and Jaime's incest, war was going to break out once it got word got out. People were already plotting prior to the novels.

I see we are going to continue to disagree about this. 

[Ferocious Veldt Roarer]

4 hours ago, Lord Wraith said:

I think he is more driven by his ambition to gain more power. Grudges come after besides Hoster Tully would be far higher on the revenge list than Ned.

Maybe he would be, if he wasn't already at the death's door when the books began, thus making potential revenge less spectacular and satisfying.

[John Suburbs]

On ‎5‎/‎1‎/‎2017 at 3:57 PM, Ferocious Veldt Roarer said:

So was Bob.

Because at that particular moment, he was pissed at his BFF and was lashing out. Which would be a little out of place as a response for "I beg your pardon, Your Grace, but I've just lost my son".

Yes. Shrewd, duplicitous player, that's our Ned. He's famous for it. I bet Littlefinger banked on his famous appetite for games.

Nope, sorry. Your assumption relies on pretty much everyone acting illogically and/or out of character. While the "Joffrey on his own" theory, besides being the one officially spelled out, requires only Joffrey being fucked up in the head. Which he was.

Bob who? Baratheon? He's king. What does that have to do with Jaime as hand vs. Stannis?

I his anger, it is Jaime who first comes to mind, not Stannis. Jaime is at the top of his list.

So a Stark child dies, Ned thinks its the Lannisters, but he does nothing but hide in Winterfell out of fear. Talk about illogical. What's illogical is Joffrey putting Bran out of his misery in order to please his father. As if Robert would ever know it was Joffrey, and Joffrey ever did anything to end someone else's suffering.

[Ser Loras The Gay]

6 minutes ago, John Suburbs said:

So a Stark child dies, Ned thinks its the Lannisters, but he does nothing but hide in Winterfell out of fear. Talk about illogical. What's illogical is Joffrey putting Bran out of his misery in order to please his father. As if Robert would ever know it was Joffrey, and Joffrey ever did anything to end someone else's suffering.

This. I think the thread could die slowly now. I think we reached an agreement that, George pratically said it was Joffrey, but the way he wrote could lead to many paths. And we should take the George's voice on the matter.

[The Hammer of Justice]

The books don't tell us who sent the catspaw, only GRRM did, and apparently he said Joffrey.....

I say "apparently" because he didn't say it directly, so we just swallow it as truth, because.....hey! it his story after all, he can do whatever he wants with it

[Ser Loras The Gay]

3 minutes ago, The Hammer of Justice said:

The books don't tell us who sent the catspaw, only GRRM did, and apparently he said Joffrey.....

I say "apparently" because he didn't say it directly

That's right. But we don't have enough material to point out anyone else, yet. But Martin said the case WAS closed, so I really think he's not writing in that direction anymore.

[John Suburbs]

16 hours ago, Colonel Green said:

snip

 

16 hours ago, Lord Wraith said:

snip

 

10 hours ago, Ferocious Veldt Roarer said:

 

Interesting discussion. I think everyone is a little right and a little wrong about a number of things.

I don't thing LF has any personal grudge against Ned. Sure, he got the bride that LF wanted, but he's never even met the man and the marriage was a matter of duty, not passion. But it is preferable for LF that the North come out of its isolation in order to whip the realm into a good, old chaotic conflict. Ergo, the letter from Lysa, and the rationale for goading Joffrey into doing something dramatic at Winterfell. All of this would only heighten Ned's resolve to confront the Lannisters.

This could take on multiple forms, depending on what happens. If Joffrey is caught red-handed, he's in the hot-seat, but he's the crown prince so it's a toss-up as to what would happen to him. If there is a case of clear-cut murder but no perpetrator is found, then there will be investigations but without any evidence, Ned has no cause to arrest the Lannisters or march on Casterly Rock. If it's staged to look like an accident, then there is even less motivation to launch into outright war at that moment.

But no matter what happens, the odds are that Ned will take the job as Hand and come south just as he did because he'll know the Lannisters are up to something and he has to stop them to not only protect Robert but to protect his house and family as well.

So in this light, both the letter from Lysa and putting Joffrey up to killing one of the Stark kids is in perfect alignment with LF's motives and the expectation of what would, and did, happen next: Ned joining Robert in KL as Hand.

[Nevets]

I think that, as far as GRRM is concerned, it was Joffrey and the subject is closed.  My suspicion is that was a retcon, and that he was planning on it remaining a mystery, but realized that readers were going to need some sort of answer, and Joffrey was the bast of a bad lot.  While I find myself unsatisfied with Joffrey as the culprit, the other possibilities are even worse.  Specifically, I can see no reason whatever to believe Littlefinger had any involvement.  He already had the letter about Arryn's murder, there is no reason to go further.  Also, the logistics don't work out, and I can see no reason for him to involve Joffrey.  Plus, if Joffrey was pointed at Bran as has been suggested, why did he wait so long?  Bran fell on the very last day before their scheduled departure.  This would suggest that nobody had any thoughts of harming him until after he fell, or they would surely have acted before then.

[The Hammer of Justice]

28 minutes ago, Ser Loras The Gay said:

That's right. But we don't have enough material to point out anyone else, yet. But Martin said the case WAS closed, so I really think he's not writing in that direction anymore.

Sadly, we don't, I agree with you, and that is why I hate this plot so much. GRRM should, AT LEAST, give us a better solution, even if it was Joffrey

 

[JonCon's Red Beard]

7 minutes ago, The Hammer of Justice said:

Sadly, we don't, I agree with you, and that is why I hate this plot so much. GRRM should, AT LEAST, give us a better solution, even if it was Joffrey

 

 

I have the feeling this will be better explained when Sansa finds out about all the awful things LF did against her family. He caused Ned to die, and also, Bran being almost killed.

[John Suburbs]

44 minutes ago, Ser Loras The Gay said:

This. I think the thread could die slowly now. I think we reached an agreement that, George pratically said it was Joffrey, but the way he wrote could lead to many paths. And we should take the George's voice on the matter.

 

43 minutes ago, The Hammer of Justice said:

The books don't tell us who sent the catspaw, only GRRM did, and apparently he said Joffrey.....

I say "apparently" because he didn't say it directly, so we just swallow it as truth, because.....hey! it his story after all, he can do whatever he wants with it

Oh, I think it will all come out at some point. There were multiple times in Game and Clash when the "explanation" for the Arryn murder was revealed to be Cersei and Jaime, and in the end it was Lysa at the instigation of Littlefinger.

I think the same will happen here: it was Joffrey, but at the instigation of Littlefinger.

[Ser Loras The Gay]

5 minutes ago, John Suburbs said:

I think the same will happen here: it was Joffrey, but at the instigation of Littlefinger.

I fail to see that. But it could be. Martin is an excellent writer, if it's the case we may have a good explanation from him.

[rmanoj]

I don't dispute that it was Joffrey, but one thing I find a little odd is how exactly he is supposed to have arranged it. Supposedly, he went among the various freeriders and other unsavoury sorts who had attached themselves to the royal party, and found someone who was willing to assassinate a son of Eddard Stark in Winterfell, So the 12-year old crown prince just asked around and found the right shady character to do this, without any rumours spreading? How would he even have known who to talk to without someone giving the game away? He probably didn't have the Hound's help - Sandor has more sense than that, and Tyrion thinks that he would have gone to Cersei. So Joffrey managed to ditch his sworn shield and arrange all this on his own?  

[The Hammer of Justice]

15 minutes ago, JCRB's Honeypot said:

I have the feeling this will be better explained when Sansa finds out about all the awful things LF did against her family. He caused Ned to die, and also, Bran being almost killed.

 

13 minutes ago, John Suburbs said:

 

Oh, I think it will all come out at some point. There were multiple times in Game and Clash when the "explanation" for the Arryn murder was revealed to be Cersei and Jaime, and in the end it was Lysa at the instigation of Littlefinger.

I think the same will happen here: it was Joffrey, but at the instigation of Littlefinger.

I hope so, but didn't GRRM said the case was closed? That means, no more returning on this subject

The Arryn murder plot twist was one of the reasons I didn't believe in Joffrey as the responsible for Bran's murder attempt.....until I came to the forums to know GRRM had already "solved" it

[Ser Loras The Gay]

20 minutes ago, rmanoj said:

He probably didn't have the Hound's help - Sandor has more sense than that, and Tyrion thinks that he would have gone to Cersei. So Joffrey managed to ditch his sworn shield and arrange all this on his own?

Pretty much. We simply don't know how it was done. Not enough explanation nor material were given to us. We are the ones who need to accept Martin's decisions haha.