Ask China to Annex North Korea?

[Weeping Sore]

Obviously this is no easy task, as North Korea has an army and nuclear weapons. It's possible the (perhaps justifiably) paranoid Kim Jong Un has anticipated this contingency and has nuclear weapons trained on the giant next door as well. So clandestine action to decapitate the NK regime would probably be the only way. There would have to be tacit assurances that the U.S. or the "West" would support this move as a lesser of two evils approach that would stabilize the region. South Korea would not be thrilled as they would be giving up the dream of reunification and suddenly have China on their doorstep, but the anxiety over potential nuclear attack would surely be reduced. Probably the biggest question is whether China would want it. Would the extra territory and 1.8% increase in population be worth the trouble? There already ethnic Koreans in Northeast China, former NK citizens would probably have an easier time adapting to the transition to another Communist country. Maybe China wouldn't want to lose a convenient scapegoat in NK, as in, look West, at least we're not as bad as these crazy people we're helping to keep under wraps...

[Ser Scot A Ellison]

I think it's an idea.  It would open up more of the Yellow Sea for China.  The biggest drawback is that I don't know that China would want the direct responsibility for rebuilding the nightmare that is North Korean society.  

[Arch-MaesterPhilip]

3 hours ago, Ser Scot A Ellison said:

I think it's an idea.  It would open up more of the Yellow Sea for China.  The biggest drawback is that I don't know that China would want the direct responsibility for rebuilding the nightmare that is North Korean society.  

According to the Economist the mineral wealth in North Korea is worth up to ten trillion dollars so it might be worth it to the Chinese or the South. 

[Kalbear]

I'm starting to think more and more that China wants North Korea almost precisely as they are, because they allow China to get away with almost everything else. NK being belligerent means that China can ask for - and get - special favors on trade, human rights, exploiting the South China sea, etc - because they're the best ones in position to bring NK to heel. 

So long as things don't get too far out of hand, they can use it fairly masterfully. 

[Weeping Sore]

15 hours ago, Kalbear said:

I'm starting to think more and more that China wants North Korea almost precisely as they are, because they allow China to get away with almost everything else. NK being belligerent means that China can ask for - and get - special favors on trade, human rights, exploiting the South China sea, etc - because they're the best ones in position to bring NK to heel. 

So long as things don't get too far out of hand, they can use it fairly masterfully. 

I agree. But there could always be a tipping point in the current risk/benefit equation for them.

[White Walker Texas Ranger]

19 hours ago, Kalbear said:

I'm starting to think more and more that China wants North Korea almost precisely as they are, because they allow China to get away with almost everything else. NK being belligerent means that China can ask for - and get - special favors on trade, human rights, exploiting the South China sea, etc - because they're the best ones in position to bring NK to heel. 

So long as things don't get too far out of hand, they can use it fairly masterfully. 

It's a risky game to play. For example, the DPRK seems to have just told the PRC to fuck off.

Who knows, maybe they choreographed this dance for Trump's benefit. But having a prickly, belligerent nuclear armed state on your border and not to far from your capital can't be a good thing.

That doesn't mean they don't prefer the status quo to the alternatives. China doesn't want millions of refugees streaming into Manchuria, or a large scale military conflict, possibly involving nuclear weapons right on their doorstep. They certainly don't want a border with a US friendly state. But the status quo isn't ideal for them, I don't think. It's far too volatile.

[SerHaHa]

The last thing China wants is to share a border with South Korea where US troops and bases are.  The DPRK has always been a great buffer zone for China.

[Weeping Sore]

15 hours ago, SerHaHa said:

The last thing China wants is to share a border with South Korea where US troops and bases are.  The DPRK has always been a great buffer zone for China.

Doubtful that the above scenario would ever happen without U.S. encouragement, in which case at least a partial draw-down of U.S. troops in S.K. would have to be a component.

[SerHaHa]

I'm saying that it's doubtful that China would do anything where it would end up sharing a border with the South, responding to your suggestion of annexation, the solution you yourself have suggested - the annexation of the DPRK by China.  Any Korean re unification, regardless of how it happens, or an annexation of the North by China, result in the same thing strategically for China:  a shared border with South Korea/Korea which has a large contingent of established US bases, as well as a presence of US troops and air power, not to mention South Korea's own huge and advanced military. 

Considering the lengths China is going to in the South China Sea, building up Island bases and militarizing them, all in order to keep US/ALlied/ETC forces further away from the mainland, and add anti access/area denial depth should they ever have to fight in the South China Sea, making a move which shortens the distance to their largest perceived threat, ie ending up with a common border with the ROK/US forces, is the 1/x of what they've been up to recently. 

Even IF the US agreed to withdraw some or all of its forces, they are really a drop in the bucket compared to the ROK forces, whose forces outnumber their US counterparts massively.  There is only a wing of US fighters, F16s, some A10s, and about 20k of US Army troops, the 8th Army, which is made up largely of the 2nd Infantry Division and its attachments.  It's not even 30k total US forces including all the air, land, and small contingent of naval forces permanently stationed int he ROK.  You can't "draw down" the bases, which the US could surge forces into VERY quickly in time of conflict even IF the USA withdrew all their troops in some sort of "deal" with China.  So long as the ROK and its military exists, the US can deploy there, and so far as air power goes, very quickly.  

[Weeping Sore]

@SerHaHa

Thanks for the level of detail. Of course China could still think of a new ethnically Korean  province as a buffer, if it considered its inhabitants more expendable.

[Kalbear]

The wrinkle here is that Trump is making a lot of noises about withdrawing from SK if they don't pay, and SK is running an election that is very anti-US and pro-China. The US might naturally draw down from SK without China pushing for it much at all.