Discipline and Winning the Game

[Traverys]

In addition to Daenerys not being disciplined, I'm not so sure about Walder Frey, to be honest. We know he's not sexually disciplined at all, having over 100 descendants with a fair portion of them being bastards. There's something more understandable about a sexually undisciplined teenager versus an old man, but that's a conversation for another topic. Walder also certainly can't help but say what is exactly on his mind. Even the time before the actual Red Wedding he laid on a layer of insults that could have risked Robb storming out. We know Robb needed his men, but if Robb is so undisciplined why wouldn't he capable of leaving? Also, Walder Frey has instigated a legacy of family in-fighting and factions just for his own amusement. That's not really looking at the bigger picture at all.

Walder nursed a grudge for a long time against the Tullies, but he never really had any concrete plans for revenge or "winning" until Tywin offered him a plan and an out. So sure, he bided his time, but it's his own undisciplined behavior that makes him a prime candidate to be manipulated into Tywin's plot. Remember that he's really just Tywin's scapegoat.

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“The blood is on Walder Frey’s hands, not mine.”

“Walder Frey is a peevish old man who lives to fondle his young wife and brood over all the slights he’s suffered. I have no doubt he hatched this ugly chicken, but he would never have dared such a thing without a promise of protection.”

Martin, George R.R.. A Storm of Swords: A Song of Ice and Fire: Book Three (p. 720). Random House Publishing Group. Kindle Edition.

He got his revenge, but at what cost? He's turned his family into a house of social outcasts. He complains about finding matches for all his descendants in book one, but how likely are people to marry their children to a Frey now? Not to mention the number of people (even if you exclude Lady Stoneheart) that are looking for revenge on the Freys. As far as what Walder has "won," Cersei allows them to be given Riverrun but not the Lord Paramount title that comes with. Walder's traded the (already dismal) honor and standing of his house just for a fancy new castle for his heir (who won't likely be able to defend it if needed) and a sense of smug satisfaction.

Even if you still think he is disciplined, I don't think you can say that he has won anything. In my mind, a disciplined person wouldn't be talked into taking such a violent revenge for meager spoils.

[Helikzhan]

Petyr Baelish is the most patient man in Westeros. Watching the woman he loved go to another man, bearing the shame of his house and his defeat for many years until he reached later adulthood to act on all the things he observed. Things he bottled as he grew into power were all weaponized in the story. The framing of Tyrion, killing Jon Arryn, setting fire to Westeros to kill all the men and women he despised. 

I would say Varys would be the second but that's  a long second. 

[SeaWitch]

The real test will be if he can cut his losses and let a situation go if it turns against him.  He feels like the consummate survivor.  I'd rather like him to fake his death/escape, and have a long second career in Braavos. Given the Machiavellian origins of the character, probably writing the seminal works on finance and politics.

Sex and vengeance seem to be where people lose the plot.  

[Moiraine Sedai]

7 hours ago, Traverys said:

In addition to Daenerys not being disciplined, I'm not so sure about Walder Frey, to be honest. We know he's not sexually disciplined at all, having over 100 descendants with a fair portion of them being bastards. There's something more understandable about a sexually undisciplined teenager versus an old man, but that's a conversation for another topic. Walder also certainly can't help but say what is exactly on his mind. Even the time before the actual Red Wedding he laid on a layer of insults that could have risked Robb storming out. We know Robb needed his men, but if Robb is so undisciplined why wouldn't he capable of leaving? Also, Walder Frey has instigated a legacy of family in-fighting and factions just for his own amusement. That's not really looking at the bigger picture at all.

Walder nursed a grudge for a long time against the Tullies, but he never really had any concrete plans for revenge or "winning" until Tywin offered him a plan and an out. So sure, he bided his time, but it's his own undisciplined behavior that makes him a prime candidate to be manipulated into Tywin's plot. Remember that he's really just Tywin's scapegoat.

He got his revenge, but at what cost? He's turned his family into a house of social outcasts. He complains about finding matches for all his descendants in book one, but how likely are people to marry their children to a Frey now? Not to mention the number of people (even if you exclude Lady Stoneheart) that are looking for revenge on the Freys. As far as what Walder has "won," Cersei allows them to be given Riverrun but not the Lord Paramount title that comes with. Walder's traded the (already dismal) honor and standing of his house just for a fancy new castle for his heir (who won't likely be able to defend it if needed) and a sense of smug satisfaction.

Even if you still think he is disciplined, I don't think you can say that he has won anything. In my mind, a disciplined person wouldn't be talked into taking such a violent revenge for meager spoils.

You must have a very different meaning of self discipline than I do.  It took awesome self-discipline on Dany's part to hold that conversation with Kraznys all the while he was insulting her.  She pulled the same move with the Titan's bastard.  Some may call it composure and it is but I would also say it is self discipline on her part.  She is mentally strong and led her khalasar to Vaes Tolloro. 

On Walder.  Yes he was Tywin's tool but Tywin was also Walder's meal ticket to greater riches.  Tywin died in his privy and all the while Walder now owns half of the Riverlands.  Walder came off on the winning side.  He is a careful man and built the family fortunes up after his father's cockup at Whitewalls.  I think his position on that list is justified.  Just because somebody commits guest right crime doesn't mean they don't have self discipline.  The negative consequences for staying with Robb was just too much and the upsides of going against Robb was just too lucrative. 

[Nevets]

On 5/4/2017 at 5:46 AM, Texas Hold Em said:

Robb was a going to lose from the start because he lacked self-discipline.  He lacked the mental strength to stay the course and do what needed doing instead of what he personally wanted to do.  I am a casual poker player but an even bigger fan of it.  I know how important it is to avoid impulsivity(sp?) and to remain focused.  I want to carry this idea to the game of thrones.  By no means is self discipline the only trait required to win but it is perhaps the most important one.  With that in mind, I made a ranked list of the people whom I believe possess self-discipline.

 

1. Brynden Rivers aka Bloodraven
2. Greyworm
3. Petyr Baelish
4. Varys
5. Ned Stark
6. Daenerys Targaryen
7. Roose Bolton
8. Walder Frey
9. The Green Grace
10. Doran Martell
11. Tywin Lannister
12. Stannis Baratheon
13. Hizdahr Zo Loraq
14. Lothar Frey
15. Barristan Selmy
16. Grand Maester Pycelle
17. Missandei
18. Margery Tyrell
19. Big Walder Frey
20. Mellisandre

List your own rank and let me know what you think.  Enjoy!

I would say that the characters who have the strongest self-discipline that I have seen are:

Littlefinger, Varys, Roose, and Stannis.  The problem is that is about all they have going for them, and in the long run they will not win.  All of them have made enemies, and what is worse, they have few if any friends who will take their back if things go wrong.  In fact, most of their associates will cheerfully stab them in the back if given half a chance.  (Stannis might be the exception.  His problem isn't his enemies.  It's that nobody likes him.)

As for some of the others on your list: Daenerys is too hot-headed, Tywin and Walder Frey are too prideful, and Ned was too bound by a narrow sense of honor.  (Btw, Ned's biggest error wasn't telling Cersei what he knew.  At that point, he reasonably thought Robert would have his back.  It was not moving decisively after Robert was mortally wounded.  That is what did him in.)   Most of the rest I don't know well enough to really assess. 

[Lord Wraith]

On 5/4/2017 at 7:51 AM, Ser Loras The Gay said:

Could you please elaborate on how dany is that high on the list?

Seriously if anyone doesn't think in the long term its her. Clearly making it up as she goes along for both good and ill.

On 5/4/2017 at 10:18 AM, Damon_Tor said:

And above Doran Martell too.

If the story is all about being focused and not letting oneself get distracted, it doesn't really make too much sense considering how much she put off invading Westeros. Essos was a means to that end, and she forgot that at some point.

Meanwhile Doran has been willing to sacrifice his children to meet his goals. Maybe he's so low on the list because we don't understand his goals well enough to judge how well he's focused on them? That's fair, I guess. But we also don't understand Littlefinger's goals very well and he's sitting pretty as the highest ranked intact male, so...

Baelish should be highest because I think his goals are flexible. Doran is patient because Dorne can't beat the other kingdoms alone. Best have them kill each other off and mop up the surviors. Or just be in a stronger position and be the lead in the next set of alliances that will rule the kingdom. Either way those two men are still on relatively untouched armies and food stores that haven't been decimated by the war of the five kings.

[Traverys]

1 hour ago, Lord Wraith said:

Seriously if anyone doesn't think in the long term its her. Clearly making it up as she goes along for both good and ill.

Baelish should be highest because I think his goals are flexible. Doran is patient because Dorne can't beat the other kingdoms alone. Best have them kill each other off and mop up the surviors. Or just be in a stronger position and be the lead in the next set of alliances that will rule the kingdom. Either way those two men are still on relatively untouched armies and food stores that haven't been decimated by the war of the five kings.

For Daenerys, people have only pointed out one instance (not letting on she knows High Valyrian) as demonstrating discipline. Whether true discipline or not, it takes more than one instance. When Arya helps free the northmen in Harrenhal and Bolton takes over she errs towards caution and doesn't reveal her identity to any of them. Discipline: Not letting emotions or personal impulses get in the way of your ultimate goal or purpose. It would have been easy for Arya to get so excited and relieved that she would thoughtlessly just run up to one of them and spill the beans. Her survival is thanks to her choice not to do anything impulsive like that at this time. Would I say she is a disciplined person because of this one instance? Definitely not.

I agree about Doran needing to be high on the list. He wants revenge and he wants it bad, but he's willing to wait until the odds are in his favor. First of all, if Walder is on the list (which I already argued against) then there's no reason Doran shouldn't be. In Doran's case, we get the juxtaposition between the reckless, undisciplined actions of the Sand Snakes/Arianne and the patient calculations of Doran. They openly doubt the extent of his desire for revenge for Elia, Elia's children, and Oberyn because he is disciplined enough to suppress impulses. Turns out he has wanted revenge for a long time, just as much as they do, but is willing to wait for the time to be ripe.

[Traverys]

Came across this little quote on my reread of ASoS.

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“They might be adequate to my needs,” Dany answered. It had been Ser Jorah’s suggestion that she speak only Dothraki and the Common Tongue while in Astapor. My bear is more clever than he looks. “Tell me of their training.”

Martin, George R.R.. A Storm of Swords: A Song of Ice and Fire: Book Three (p. 312). Random House Publishing Group. Kindle Edition.

 

So... not even her idea.

[John Doe]

Dany is a tool. People like Stannis, Olenna, Margaery, Sansa, Doran, Arya, Catelyn, Varys, Kevan come to mind first for me. 

[Bernie Mac]

On 2017-5-5 at 5:21 AM, Traverys said:

I'm not so sure about Walder Frey, to be honest. We know he's not sexually disciplined at all, having over 100 descendants with a fair portion of them being bastards.

Having 100 descendants is more due to his age and the health and fortune of his family, rather than ill discipline. Walder is around the same age as Ned's great grand father Edwyle. Had he still been alive at the start of the series and his offspring stayed out of trouble he too could be looking at 100 descendants. Instead he died early, as his son, grandson and two of his great grandsons did. 

In the medieval world 100 descendants in a century is not that bad. Only one of Walder's children and grandchilden had more children than Ned Stark did

On 2017-5-5 at 5:21 AM, Traverys said:

Walder also certainly can't help but say what is exactly on his mind. Even the time before the actual Red Wedding he laid on a layer of insults that could have risked Robb storming out.

Robb was in the castle, he could have tried but he would never have gotten out. 

On 2017-5-5 at 5:21 AM, Traverys said:

We know Robb needed his men, but if Robb is so undisciplined why wouldn't he capable of leaving? Also, Walder Frey has instigated a legacy of family in-fighting and factions just for his own amusement. That's not really looking at the bigger picture at all.

 

That is not true at all. We are told from the Merret chapter how Walder taught Stevron the importance of family. The worry is that the infighting would start once he died, not that he actively encouraged the divisions. 

On 2017-5-5 at 5:21 AM, Traverys said:

Walder nursed a grudge for a long time against the Tullies,

And vice versa. Not sure how this is ill disciplined. He had zero chance of being able to act on it. 

On 2017-5-5 at 5:21 AM, Traverys said:

 

He got his revenge, but at what cost? He's turned his family into a house of social outcasts. He complains about finding matches for all his descendants in book one, but how likely are people to marry their children to a Frey now?

The same as always. Rich dowries. The Freys, with Riveerrun and Darry, have far more to offer now. 

On 2017-5-5 at 5:21 AM, Traverys said:

 

 As far as what Walder has "won," Cersei allows them to be given Riverrun but not the Lord Paramount title that comes with.

That was never an option. At no point did Walder Frey think it was. Emmon, who played no part in the Red Wedding, thought it would be his when he received Riverrun. 

On 2017-5-5 at 5:21 AM, Traverys said:

 

Even if you still think he is disciplined, I don't think you can say that he has won anything. In my mind, a disciplined person wouldn't be talked into taking such a violent revenge for meager spoils.

It is not meagre spoils. Riverrun, Darry forgiveness from the Crown and more importantly, to Walder, a chance  of revenge against someone he felt had wronged him and his family is not meagre spoils. 

[Traverys]

11 minutes ago, Bernie Mac said:

Having 100 descendants is more due to his age and the health and fortune of his family, rather than ill discipline. Walder is around the same age as Ned's great grand father Edwyle. Had he still been alive at the start of the series and his offspring stayed out of trouble he too could be looking at 100 descendants. Instead he died early, as his son, grandson and two of his great grandsons did. 

In the medieval world 100 descendants in a century is not that bad. Only one of Walder's children and grandchilden had more children than Ned Stark did

I agree, to an extent, that his age has a lot to do with it. But he has 22 trueborn sons and 7 trueborn daughters, and an undisclosed number of bastards. That may have been a norm at some point in our world, but it's hardly the norm in Westeros. That's a lot of mouths to feed and a lot of marriages to arrange. Walder has indeed managed to earn a pretty penny as the Westerosi toll bridge, but imagine what the actual net gain is with all of those family members.

11 minutes ago, Bernie Mac said:

Robb was in the castle, he could have tried but he would never have gotten out. 

I was mostly being snarky about how there has really been no discussion about why Robb isn't disciplined. It's been a big assumption throughout the thread. But, to address your point, they had a careful plan about how they were going to engage in their attack (mostly by Lame Lothar, I believe) to minimize their own losses (i.e., separating Robb from his army, getting Robb's men drunk while they are unarmed and unarmored, etc.). The "Frey Way," to be sure. Not to mention part of their plan to maintain control of Riverrun is having Edmure get Rosaline with child, which they could hardly force him to do if they ambushed them at the door. I'm not convinced he was trapped as soon as they shut the door.

11 minutes ago, Bernie Mac said:

That is not true at all. We are told from the Merret chapter how Walder taught Stevron the importance of family. The worry is that the infighting would start once he died, not that he actively encouraged the divisions. 

Right... So he taught one son and not any others. I'll correct my statement from "he encouraged" to "did not discourage." Teaching one son to value family doesn't do much good if he's the only one (out of 22) with that philosophy. Again, I'm not trying to argue facts but argue against him being a disciplined person.

12 minutes ago, Bernie Mac said:

And vice versa. Not sure how this is ill disciplined. He had zero chance of being able to act on it. 

You didn't include all I said. I was pointing out that nursing a grudge is not the same as actively plotting for revenge. That's the only thing I can see that could be seen as "disciplined" as far as Walder Frey goes. Was Walder Frey opportunistic? Yes. Prudent? Yes, if he wanted to survive his best bet was to flip on Robb. Ambitious? Of course. Disciplined? ... how is this man disciplined in any way?

14 minutes ago, Bernie Mac said:

The same as always. Rich dowries. The Freys, with Riveerrun and Darry, have far more to offer now. 

There were three arranged marriages as part of the deal, and they were for Lancel and Devan Lannister and Joy Hill. They only dowry Walder would receive was for a bastard girl, so we can imagine it won't be the same size purse as a trueborn Lannister girl. Darry was given to Lancel and Kevan arranged for him to marry Amerei (whose mother is a Darry) in order to secure the land. So... that narrows it down to Riverrun and a smug sense of satisfaction.

The chances of the Frey's recovering from their actions as a family are very slim, even if Lady Stoneheart wasn't out there mass murdering them. I'm not saying they shouldn't have betrayed Robb, but the way Walder let it unfold is going to be ultimately disastrous for their family. Anyone can see that coming.

[lomiller]

Topic completely misses the point IMO.  The game is a distraction, when the heroes (Dany, Jon, Arya, maybe Tyrion and Bran) make their comeback they won't play the game they'll knock over the board. 

[Bernie Mac]

9 hours ago, Traverys said:

I agree, to an extent, that his age has a lot to do with it. But he has 22 trueborn sons and 7 trueborn daughters, and an undisclosed number of bastards. That may have been a norm at some point in our world, but it's hardly the norm in Westeros.

Robert has how many children? And he is a third of Walder's age. Leyton Hightower has had four wives and is younger than Walder. Is Walder supposed to stop having sex? Why? Having a large family in these times is a boon, not a negative.

Has to be remembered that Walder was born during the events of the great Spring Sickness, when huge chunks of the population died and when Egg, who was originally nineteenth in line, became King. He'd come from a time when they were likely encouraged  to procreate. 

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That's a lot of mouths to feed and a lot of marriages to arrange. Walder has indeed managed to earn a pretty penny as the Westerosi toll bridge, but imagine what the actual net gain is with all of those family members.

I doubt that it is a huge drain on his expenses. For one thing he feeds a 4k army, having a few sons and grandsons to take an active role is a plus, not a negative. He'd still need to employ people to dispense justice or command his soldiers. 

The Freys are the richest House in the Riverlands, itself one of the richest realms in Westeros. Walder Frey can afford it

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I was mostly being snarky about how there has really been no discussion about why Robb isn't disciplined. It's been a big assumption throughout the thread. But, to address your point, they had a careful plan about how they were going to engage in their attack (mostly by Lame Lothar, I believe) to minimize their own losses (i.e., separating Robb from his army, getting Robb's men drunk while they are unarmed and unarmored, etc.).

Which was already done before Walder shared his thoughts. Though part of his revenge was giving Robb a peace of his mind. 

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The "Frey Way," to be sure. Not to mention part of their plan to maintain control of Riverrun is having Edmure get Rosaline with child, which they could hardly force him to do if they ambushed them at the door. I'm not convinced he was trapped as soon as they shut the door.

The Freys don't get to decide who gets Riverrun, the Crown does. They were willing to let the marriage go through to show that marriage alliances are important. They were pissed with Robb for abandoning his agreement (after Frey and their men had died for the promise) so they were unlikely to stop the marriage. In their eyes that would make them as bad as Robb. 

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Right... So he taught one son and not any others.

No. that is not right. As Merret is aware of the situation and how they should be treated. We see how pissed  Hosteen and Aenys are about their missing half brothers disappearance in White Harbor.

A more accurate response is that Stevron possibly did a poor job of teaching his son, Ryman, who in turn definitely did  a poor job teaching his sons. 

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I'll correct my statement from "he encouraged" to "did not discourage." Teaching one son to value family doesn't do much good if he's the only one (out of 22) with that philosophy. Again, I'm not trying to argue facts but argue against him being a disciplined person

One in 22? Come on. 

And you are ignoring how much this is about paranoia rather than there being Frey's actually at war with each other. Merret was not killed by other Freys, nor was Ryman. One Frey is paranoid that his own brother is responsible. 

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You didn't include all I said. I was pointing out that nursing a grudge is not the same as actively plotting for revenge.

I'm sorry, I didn't feel the need to. Your point that he did nothing about his grudge shows that Walder actually has discipline. He is not in a position to do anything to his liege Lord, especially when that Lord is the father-in-law to the King's two closest friends. All he can do is try to make things better like try to arrange marriage alliances and invite Hoster to his weddings. 

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That's the only thing I can see that could be seen as "disciplined" as far as Walder Frey goes. Was Walder Frey opportunistic? Yes. Prudent? Yes, if he wanted to survive his best bet was to flip on Robb. Ambitious? Of course. Disciplined? ... how is this man disciplined in any way?

Well the main way he is shown to be disciplined is in war. When the Riverlands was attacked every other Lord, apart from Frey and Mallister, sent their men meaning their own lands were easily attacked  and in some cases taken. Walder showed caution and discipline. Had Edmure and the other Riverlords done the same the Riverlands would not have capitulated in a matter of weeks (if that long).

He also showed discipline in Robert's Rebellion, not picking a side until one looked likely to win. Other Houses will have joined the war early, maybe even the losing side, while the ones that joined the winning side will have lost men, lost food resources and riches paying for their armies. Joining a war  early might bring fame and glory but is also a costly affair. 

And of course we know from Cat that the Frey's are the most powerful of the Tully vassals, perhaps even greater than the Tully's themselves. We also know that they have not always been like that, Walder may have played a part of their rise but at the very least deserves credit for maintaining their position. 

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There were three arranged marriages as part of the deal, and they were for Lancel and Devan Lannister and Joy Hill. They only dowry Walder would receive was for a bastard girl, so we can imagine it won't be the same size purse as a trueborn Lannister girl. Darry was given to Lancel and Kevan arranged for him to marry Amerei (whose mother is a Darry) in order to secure the land. So... that narrows it down to Riverrun and a smug sense of satisfaction.

Riverrun is hugely rich. Darry, while not as rich, is still on of the best settlements in the Riverlands. These are not meagre prizes. 

And why should he not want revenge for his perceived slight and the loss of his son and heir Stevron? Robb too wanted the satisfaction of getting revenge on Joffrey and when pointed out that he could not win still refused to seek peace.  Why is Walder's need for revenge smug but Robb's not?

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The chances of the Frey's recovering from their actions as a family are very slim,

Possibly, as this is a fantasy novel. Walder was not to know that Cat would become a zombie, that Arya would become a magical assassin, Bran an omnipotent tree person or that Jon would possibly rise from the dead and unite the North. 

The events that GRRM based the Red Wedding saw the 'villains' in those events survive. Not sure why Walder should not think he would unless he was aware he was living in a fantasy novel.