What exactly was Sandor's plan with Arya?

[TMIFairy]

Trading Jaime for Sansa would had IMO been a brilliant military move. Jaime may be the swordsman in the Seven Kingdoms. However, his skills as army commander make me think of an idiom in my language - "giving a monkey a straight edged razor to play with ..."

Such an exchange of hostages would be like giving the North&Riverlands 5000 more troops.

Yeah, Jaime kicked Edmure's arese - yeah, Edmure makes Jaime look like the Duke of Wellington reborn ...

[devilish]

3 hours ago, TMIFairy said:

Trading Jaime for Sansa would had IMO been a brilliant military move. Jaime may be the swordsman in the Seven Kingdoms. However, his skills as army commander make me think of an idiom in my language - "giving a monkey a straight edged razor to play with ..."

Such an exchange of hostages would be like giving the North&Riverlands 5000 more troops.

Yeah, Jaime kicked Edmure's arese - yeah, Edmure makes Jaime look like the Duke of Wellington reborn ...

You're right but for the wrong reasons. Jaime is just a glorified sentry man. Sansa can be married to somebody who would bring his army to the fray

[John Suburbs]

On Invalid Date at 2:43 PM, cgrav said:

I wouldn't say his disadvantaged circumstances are a credit to his judgment. Marrying Jayne was beyond poor judgment. It was essentially treason to his own cause. Add to that the execution of Rickard Karstark and it looks like Robb's only area of sound judgment is the battlefield. The Starks are simply terrible at politics, by the author's design. 

Other people's poor decisions don't improve Robb's, either. Decisions are judged by their predictable results, and the loss of the Karstarks' confidence was entirely predictable.

Many consequences are totally unpredictable, but marrying a westerner and executing a bannerman... Robb put himself in that corner.

 

On Invalid Date at 4:33 AM, devilish said:

I think people are a tad unfair with Robb TBH. Sure he messed up with the Westerling girl and by allowing Theon to return to the iron islands. However, most mistakes were made by people who should have known better.
 

You do realize that Robb falling for Jeyne was not poor judgement. He was drugged:

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The Westerlings always did have more honor than sense. Lady Sybell's grandfather was a trader in saffron and pepper, almost as lowborn as that smuggler Stannis keeps. And the grandmother was some women he'd brought back from the east. A frightening old crone, supposed to be a priestess. Maegi, they called her. No one could pronounce her real name. Half of Lannisport use to go to her for cures and love potions and the like.

Lady Sybelle knows enough about woodcraft to make sure Jeyne does not bear Robb's child. It stands to reason that she also knows the family recipe for a love potion.

[Colonel Green]

19 hours ago, devilish said:

You're right but for the wrong reasons. Jaime is just a glorified sentry man. Sansa can be married to somebody who would bring his army to the fray

Who?

There are circumstances where the ability to offer Sansa and/or Arya as a marriage prospect might have been advantageous, but no alliance prospects are on offer anyway, and people don't enter into alliances they are otherwise uninterested in solely to secure brides.

[devilish]

1 hour ago, Colonel Green said:

Who?

There are circumstances where the ability to offer Sansa and/or Arya as a marriage prospect might have been advantageous, but no alliance prospects are on offer anyway, and people don't enter into alliances they are otherwise uninterested in solely to secure brides.

Stannis marriage to some landed knight's daughter brought the Florents at play. Would the same happen if lets say Sansa was married off to Harrold Hardyng or a Royce? The Vale's central rule of power was weak. The Knights of the Vale were itching for war and yet, they were kept under control, by a foreigner with no disregard to her father's or brother's wellbeing. They did that out of respect of old Arryn but also because the Arryns were rulers and no one was strong enough to withstand them.

However what would happen if things do change? If Royce's son or Robin's heir had to marry Sansa then automatically he would have the protection of both the North and the Riverlands.  Even if Royce would not be able to convince all the Lords of the Vale to participate to war a 20k army (ie around half the Vale knights) would help Robb a great deal.

A marriage between Sansa and Willas could also make sure that Robb and Edmure would surrender to the crown without suffering too many consequences. The Tyrells might have wanted Margaery as queen at all costs however they aren't stupid. They had previously rebelled against the king and they knew how 'forgiving' the Lannisters could be. It would be in their interest to defend their newly found allies (North and the Riverlands) as it strengthened their influence in court and their hand in war. The Lannisters might have kept the crown but with the Tyrells, Tullys, Starks and in the future Arryn + Dorne not very happy with them either, the true victors and rulers would be the Tyrells

[Tyg Doggett]

In my opinion the most stupid things Robb did were send Theon to Pyke and give Roose the command of half his army (seriously, how could he trust Roose Bolton???)

If he sent other person to the Greyjoy (Karstark, Galbart Glover or one of the Manderly, because Roose is not trustworthy, Great-Jon would be a horrible negotiator, Mallister and Mormonts hate Ironborn and he needed Blackfish) could Balon had accepted his terms? If so, he wold not need the Freys (the Iron Fleet could take his army to the north if necessary), Lannisport would fall, Tywin would have to go west. Then, a Stark army could take King's Landing, Tywin would eventually be defeated, and Robb could marry Sansa (if she survives) to Willas or Loras and Arya to SweetRobin, and togheter with the Tyrells and Arryns defeat Stannis (Mace becoming king in the south). And he could marry Margaery or Asha to make his alliances stronger.

He should also let some kind of council ruling the north, not a cripple boy and an old kinght.

Abot Sandor, Robb would probably take him at his servisse. He said nothing when the Leech Lord hired the Brave Companions.

Sorry if there are some errors, I don't speak english very well.

[devilish]

50 minutes ago, Tygett Blackwood said:

In my opinion the most stupid things Robb did were send Theon to Pyke and give Roose the command of half his army (seriously, how could he trust Roose Bolton???)

If he sent other person to the Greyjoy (Karstark, Galbart Glover or one of the Manderly, because Roose is not trustworthy, Great-Jon would be a horrible negotiator, Mallister and Mormonts hate Ironborn and he needed Blackfish) could Balon had accepted his terms? If so, he wold not need the Freys (the Iron Fleet could take his army to the north if necessary), Lannisport would fall, Tywin would have to go west. Then, a Stark army could take King's Landing, Tywin would eventually be defeated, and Robb could marry Sansa (if she survives) to Willas or Loras and Arya to SweetRobin, and togheter with the Tyrells and Arryns defeat Stannis (Mace becoming king in the south). And he could marry Margaery or Asha to make his alliances stronger.

He should also let some kind of council ruling the north, not a cripple boy and an old kinght.

Abot Sandor, Robb would probably take him at his servisse. He said nothing when the Leech Lord hired the Brave Companions.

Sorry if there are some errors, I don't speak english very well.

The Boltons had been loyal to the Starks for hundreds of years. Roose rode alongside Ned during the previous war and there was no hint of disloyatly in his actions. I dare to say that Roose rebelled not for the Warden of the North title but to save his son who was causing havoc in the North. If Robb won the war, Ramsey would still executed irrespective of Roose's actions

Releasing Theon was a mistake but its more the case of Robb misinterpreting the Greyjoy customs rather then full blown stupidity. Balon's rebellion could have ended in a million ways but Robert picked the less damaging option. Considering that Theon ended up in Winterfell rather then in KL or CR then I suspect it was Ned's idea to do so. Ned practically saved Balon's head, his title and lands + he raised his son like one of his own. That pissed the Greyjoys off as they thought he ruined Theon. However balanced people would consider such actions as a blessing and a favour for the Greyjoys to repay.

 Robb's biggest mistakes were

a- to marry the Westerling girl
b- to accept the crown which basically ruined any possible alliances Robb could make
c- not to abandon the Riverlands and return North the day Ned was killed. I am pretty sure Tywin would have agreed to stop the attack on the Riverlands  and to handle Sansa off, if the younf wolf gave him Jamie back + he returned home. That would have given Robb time to regroup,  raise more men and maybe build new alliances + a fleet. Meanwhile Tywin would be losing men fighting the Baratheon brothers. 

[zandru]

On 5/10/2017 at 11:59 PM, TMIFairy said:

Trading Jaime for Sansa would had IMO been a brilliant military move. Jaime may be the swordsman in the Seven Kingdoms. However, his skills as army commander

Indeed. The books seem to imply that Sandor would be a much better commander than Jaime; Robb would have gotten the competent and experienced Hound and the Lannisters would get back the impetuous "Let's meet each other in single combat!", "not a team player" Kingslayer. Plus, Cat would have her beloved Sansa back - and would even have Arya. Brienne of Tarth could then go forth on her Quest to Kill Stannis.

As noted, Sansa then could have been married off to someone with more troops. Maybe little Sweetrobin, if he could stand to be off the teat long enough for the ceremony. That would bring in the Vale. (But Lysa seems to have a pathological hatred of her sister Cat, so maybe not.) One would expect Walder Frey to want in on the deal as well. He's got lots of weasel-faced boys on hand; Sansa would add some Riverlands beauty to his gene pool.

It's too bad the value of girls was so discounted that Robb apparently didn't even consider this possibility.

[bb1180]

Most likely,  he hoped to receive some reward/ransom for returning Arya and to enter Robb's service.  I'm not so convinced that Robb would have gone for it.  Sandor was,  afterall,  a former high ranking Lannister man,  which might be forgivable,  though certainly of suspect loyalty,  but more problematic would be the fact that he had served in Joffrey's Kingsguard.  He was,  therefore,  an oathbreaker as well. 

If I had to guess,  the ransom demand for Arya would not go over well,  and the part of being a Lannister man and Kingsguard deserter even worse.  Under the circumstances of Arya's safe return,  I don't think he would have executed Clegane...even though some of his bannermen likely would have supported or even advocated for it... but all else would be on the table.  Given that,  I think the most likely outcome is that Robb would have paid the ransom and allowed Clegane to go free,  under condition that he never return to the North.  A bit less likely,  but still possible is that he would have had him arrested and shipped off to the Wall.  If he were to drop the ransom demand for Arya,  he might receive a better welcome from Robb and his prospects with the Starks and the North might improve somewhat,  but as it is,  I don't think so.    

[Tyg Doggett]

1 hour ago, devilish said:

c- not to abandon the Riverlands and return North the day Ned was killed. I am pretty sure Tywin would have agreed to stop the attack on the Riverlands  and to handle Sansa off, if the younf wolf gave him Jamie back + he returned home. That would have given Robb time to regroup,  raise more men and maybe build new alliances + a fleet. Meanwhile Tywin would be losing men fighting the Baratheon brothers. 

I hadn't thought about that before, but it's brilliant. He could talk with the Greyjoys personally, visit Lysa (in secret) and, with the Iron Fleet and his new Ice Fleet, make surprise atacks to Lannisport, Casterly Rock and King's Landing.

Is also possible that, when Robb had reterned to the North, Tywin decided to punish the Tullys and the riverlands, what will not change Robb´s plans, but will make lose a lot of his supporters, and make it more difficult to his army to come back south to King's Landing.

[devilish]

Just now, Tygett Blackwood said:

I hadn't thought about that before, but it's brilliant. He could talk with the Greyjoys personally, visit Lysa (in secret) and, with th Iron Fleet and his new, Ice Fleet, make surprise atacks to Lannisport, Casterly Rock and King's Landing.

Is also possible that, when Robb had reterned to the North, Tywin decided to punish the Tullys and the riverlands, what will not change Robb´s plans, but will make lose a lot of his supporters, and make it more difficult to his army to come back south to King's Landing.

I never said its ideal. However its the only thing the Starks could do to survive (apart from doing the obvious thing and declare for Renly). The Riverlands were literally smashed way before Robb could do anything about it and with 20k army and a land which is almost impossible to defend, he was nothing but a sitting duck

Robb's best chance was to seal some sort of non aggression pact with the crown (peace + Ned/Sansa instead of Jamie?) and retreat North. Im very confident that Tywin would agree with it especially since he still had the Tyrell/Baratheon horde to tackle. With the Northern army out of the way, the rose and the stag would have no choice but to get their hands dirty. They will probably win but even if they lose then the Lannisters would be greatly weakened after that.

The plan makes even more sense if Stannis manage to kill Renly and the Tyrells switch sides. At that point the Lannisters could rely on an army of around 100k. There's no way Robb could win against that. He's better off home where winter makes it almost impossible for the Southerners to strike. Mace has a big army but he hates fighting. That's why he spent most of the two wars either besieging Storm's end or allowing Loras to get battered by Brianne. There's no way the Rose would march their horde North. 

 

[Tyg Doggett]

3 minutes ago, devilish said:

apart from doing the obvious thing and declare for Renly

Declare for Renly is what I would do. Renly would won if he had gone to King's Landing instead of Storm's End. 

[devilish]

5 minutes ago, Tygett Blackwood said:

Declare for Renly is what I would do. Renly would won if he had gone to King's Landing instead of Storm's End. 

That is what I would do too. After that the alternative would have been either convincing the Tyrells to go for the crown themselves (with Stark and Tully support) or a quick retreat home.

Tywin and Mace have the men to invade the North but they are business men not generals. They wont risk losing so many troops to invade a land which is impossible to tame and too poor to make any profit from especially during winter

[zandru]

1 hour ago, bb1180 said:

He was,  therefore,  an oathbreaker as well. 

Well no, he wasn't. Sandor NEVER swore the Kingsguard oath. That was one of his stipulations. He'd swear no oath and would not become a knight. His sum total "vow" was "Why not?"

As has been noted by many, King Robb would have done himself no favors by executing, exiling, or sending to the Wall the man who brought him his thought-dead little sister. The Hound was, moreover, characterized by his loyalty. Given information Sandor would have provided - which could be corroborated by others - little King Joffrey was a tyrant to rival Aerys at his nuttiest and undeserving of further loyalty. And Joff was abusing Sansa, expecting Sandor to participate in beating her. If Robb couldn't figure out why these would be reasons to break a (nonexistent) oath, then he wasn't Stark enough to be Lord of Winterfell, much less the KiTN.

Robb would have accepted Sandor's service. And things would have changed dramatically.

[bb1180]

35 minutes ago, zandru said:

Well no, he wasn't. Sandor NEVER swore the Kingsguard oath. That was one of his stipulations. He'd swear no oath and would not become a knight. His sum total "vow" was "Why not?"

As has been noted by many, King Robb would have done himself no favors by executing, exiling, or sending to the Wall the man who brought him his thought-dead little sister. The Hound was, moreover, characterized by his loyalty. Given information Sandor would have provided - which could be corroborated by others - little King Joffrey was a tyrant to rival Aerys at his nuttiest and undeserving of further loyalty. And Joff was abusing Sansa, expecting Sandor to participate in beating her. If Robb couldn't figure out why these would be reasons to break a (nonexistent) oath, then he wasn't Stark enough to be Lord of Winterfell, much less the KiTN.

Robb would have accepted Sandor's service. And things would have changed dramatically.

As I said,  I think it largely would have depended upon how he presented the situation with Arya.  If he makes a ransom demand for the return of the king's sister,  I'm not sure how the king then accepts him into his service, regardless of the other issues that exist.  Unless he were to offer Arya up free and clear,  with no strings attached,  I don't think it works.  

[zandru]

3 hours ago, bb1180 said:

Unless he were to offer Arya up free and clear,  with no strings attached,  I don't think it works. 

I think you're right. That would be the smartest approach.

[The Sunland Lord]

5 hours ago, bb1180 said:

Most likely,  he hoped to receive some reward/ransom for returning Arya and to enter Robb's service.  I'm not so convinced that Robb would have gone for it.  Sandor was,  afterall,  a former high ranking Lannister man,  which might be forgivable,  though certainly of suspect loyalty,  but more problematic would be the fact that he had served in Joffrey's Kingsguard.  He was,  therefore,  an oathbreaker as well. 

If I had to guess,  the ransom demand for Arya would not go over well,  and the part of being a Lannister man and Kingsguard deserter even worse.  Under the circumstances of Arya's safe return,  I don't think he would have executed Clegane...even though some of his bannermen likely would have supported or even advocated for it... but all else would be on the table.  Given that,  I think the most likely outcome is that Robb would have paid the ransom and allowed Clegane to go free,  under condition that he never return to the North.  A bit less likely,  but still possible is that he would have had him arrested and shipped off to the Wall.  If he were to drop the ransom demand for Arya,  he might receive a better welcome from Robb and his prospects with the Starks and the North might improve somewhat,  but as it is,  I don't think so.    

Roose would've gladly flay him.

[Clegane'sPup]

On 5/8/2017 at 0:21 PM, Canon Claude said:

He was a lone man, a fugitive on the run, with Arya as his hostage. Was his plan to just ride into the Twins and demand a ransom from Robb and Catelyn? And then join Robb's service?

What would stop Robb from ordering Sandor to be arrested for daring to try and take his sister hostage? And even if he did grudgingly swear to pay Sandor a hefty fee for Arya, did Sandor plan to then say "So, now that that's done, are you hiring?"

Sometimes it is best to let the books speak for themselves.

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A Storm of Swords - Arya IX     "Stupid blind little wolf bitch." His voice was rough and hard as an iron rasp. "Bugger Joffrey, bugger the queen, and bugger that twisted little gargoyle she calls a brother. I'm done with their city, done with their Kingsguard, done with Lannisters. What's a dog to do with lions, I ask you?" He reached for his waterskin, took a long pull. As he wiped his mouth, he offered the skin to Arya and said, "The river was the Trident, girl. The Trident, not the Blackwater. Make the map in your head, if you can.

On the morrow we should reach the kingsroad. We'll make good time after that, straight up to the Twins. It's going to be me who hands you over to that mother of yours. Not the noble lightning lord or that flaming fraud of a priest, the monster." He grinned at the look on her face. "You think your outlaw friends are the only ones can smell a ransom? <snip>

If this Young Wolf has the wits the gods gave a toad, he'll make me a lordling and beg me to enter his service. He needs me, though he may not know it yet. Maybe I'll even kill Gregor for him, he'd like that."

"He'll never take you," she spat back. "Not you."

"Then I'll take as much gold as I can carry, laugh in his face, and ride off. If he doesn't take me, he'd be wise to kill me, but he won't. Too much his father's son, from what I hear. Fine with me. Either way I win. And so do you, she-wolf. So stop whimpering and snapping at me, I'm sick of it. Keep your mouth shut and do as I tell you, and maybe we'll even be in time for your uncle's bloody wedding."

 

Appears to me Sandor doesn’t really have a plan. Appears to me he thinks he is gonna ride into the Twins bright as day. Say sumthin’ like I got your daughter Lady Stark. Here she is. Now give me my reward.

Then again Sandor was sneaking Arya into the Twins wedding party encampment. Maybe he did have a plan.

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A Storm of Swords - Arya X     "Keep your head down and your mouth shut," the Hound warned her as the three spurred toward them; a knight and two squires, lightly armored and mounted on fast palfreys. Clegane cracked his whip at the team, a pair of old drays that had known better days. The wayn was creaking and swaying, its two huge wooden wheels squeezing mud up out of the deep ruts in the road with every turn. Stranger followed, tied to the wagon.

The big bad-tempered courser wore neither armor, barding, nor harness, and the Hound himself was garbed in splotchy green roughspun and a soot-grey mantle with a hood that swallowed his head. So long as he kept his eyes down you could not see his face, only the whites of his eyes peering out. He looked like some down-at-heels farmer. A big farmer, though. And under the roughspun was boiled leather and oiled mail, Arya knew. She looked like a farmer's son, or maybe a swineherd. And behind them were four squat casks of salt pork and one of pickled pigs' feet.

 

Then the shit hit the fan and plans needed to be adjusted.

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A Storm of Swords - Arya XII    They didn't really know that her mother was dead, or Robb either. It wasn't like they'd seen them die or anything. Maybe Lord Frey had just taken them captive. Maybe they were chained up in his dungeon, or maybe the Freys were taking them to King's Landing so Joffrey could chop their heads off. They didn't know. "We should go back," she suddenly decided. "We should go back to the Twins and get my mother. She can't be dead. We have to help her."

"I thought your sister was the one with a head full of songs," the Hound growled. "Frey might have kept your mother alive to ransom, that's true. But there's no way in seven hells I'm going to pluck her out of his castle all by my bloody self."

 

[BRANDON GREYSTARK]

On Invalid Date at 0:21 PM, Canon Claude said:

He was a lone man, a fugitive on the run, with Arya as his hostage. Was his plan to just ride into the Twins and demand a ransom from Robb and Catelyn? And then join Robb's service?

What would stop Robb from ordering Sandor to be arrested for daring to try and take his sister hostage? And even if he did grudgingly swear to pay Sandor a hefty fee for Arya, did Sandor plan to then say "So, now that that's done, are you hiring?"

To get paid and a little payback . He is not going to blackmail Robb . " Give me x amount of gold dragons and make me one of your battlefield commanders or I will sell her to the Lannisters ."  Robb maybe the new wild wolf , but he is not stupid . He will pay the ransom and hire the former King's Guardsman but he will be watched until he earns trust .