Aegon Blackfyre or Aegon Targaryen

[Lion of the West]

EDITED: Eh, forget about it.

 

[Renly's Banana]

4 hours ago, Wintersfae said:

I think he is a Blackfyre. It just feels right to me considering The Golden Company joins him, who are Blackfyre supporters( that's the reason they exist, actually) and anti Targaryen.

And I am also of the belief that he is a son of Illyrio and Serra. Can't say which one of those is the Blackfyre. But I think it is Serra.

There are actually some small hints in the Connington chapters that even the Golden Company knows or suspects he's a Blackfyre themselves. Something not even Jon seems to do. Their attitude when he's presented to them suggests they know something Connington does not, and their fast willingness to join his cause (even though Yunkai was ready to pay them much more) is very telling. 
I think it's possible Illyrio may have told them about Aegon's true lineage in advance to get them ready. 

I think the whole backstory about Serra being a Lyseni whore is bullcrap. She was probably the last descendant of the Blackfyres. The fact that the male line is extinguished while the female one is not keeps being brought up is a huge red flag. 

[Renly's Banana]

3 hours ago, Sea Dragon said:

I agree that Daenerys is the rightful queen, but I don't remember exactly when in the books that Aerys disinherited Rhaegar and his children. I guess I forgot? Do you have the quote so I can go back and read it again? 

He never did. Like I said earlier, Viserys was named heir-apparent only after Rhaegar was dead and everyone was marching to KL. Aegon was skipped over and kept in KL with Aerys almost as a last petty vengeance, while Viserys was taken away. But by decree, neither Rhaegar nor Aegon were formally disinherited. And Viserys became "king" ONLY after Aerys and Aegon were both dead. 

[J. Stargaryen]

7 hours ago, Widowmaker 811 said:

Sorry, no.  Aerys made Viserys his heir while Aegon and Rhaenys were still alive.  Thus proving beyond any doubt what his intentions were:  to disinherit Rhaegar's children.  He made sure Viserys inherited his kingdom.  

Hardly. Aerys needn't disinherit Aegon and Rhaenys in order to name Viserys as his heir.

[Lord Varys]

3 hours ago, Renly's Banana said:

There are actually some small hints in the Connington chapters that even the Golden Company knows or suspects he's a Blackfyre themselves. Something not even Jon seems to do. Their attitude when he's presented to them suggests they know something Connington does not, and their fast willingness to join his cause (even though Yunkai was ready to pay them much more) is very telling. 
I think it's possible Illyrio may have told them about Aegon's true lineage in advance to get them ready.

They know something, but it is very unlikely they know that if it is true. Men talk, and fucking Westeros by selling them a Blackfyre descendant for a Targaryen would be a pretty big story. A lot of people in the Golden Company might decide to take such a story and sell it to King Tommen in exchange for a pardon, a fat purse, or a lordship.

Varys and Illyrio certainly wouldn't fake Connington's death to keep Aegon safe and then make such a glaring mistake.

3 hours ago, Renly's Banana said:

I think the whole backstory about Serra being a Lyseni whore is bullcrap. She was probably the last descendant of the Blackfyres. The fact that the male line is extinguished while the female one is not keeps being brought up is a huge red flag. 

There is no reason to assume Serra even existed. Lemore could be Aegon's mother. But even if there is a Serra then she most likely was just chosen to get the looks right. Rhaegar's son has to have Valyrian hairs and eyes, and the best and cheapest way to do that is to indeed use a Lysene whore as his mother.

If somebody has Blackfyre blood it is most likely Illyrio himself. We need a good explanation why he is doing all that. Doing it for some long dead woman may be believable but it is very unlikely that Illyrio Mopatis could marry a known Blackfyre descendant without the people in Pentos finding about that (and thus also Viserys III, making it unlikely that he would ever hang out with that man - not to mention the Iron Throne). In addition there is the problem of Aegon himself. Serra may have wished that her son became king if she was a Blackfyre by birth but why should Illyrio risk the life of the only child he has from Serra for such a risky enterprise. In addition, there is the fact, that if he makes Aegon Rhaegar's son he will forever lose him as a son. If I were Illyrio I'd probably have called it a day, raised my son in peace, and made him my heir for my vast wealth and my merchant empire. That would be as good as the Iron Throne anyway, and much more pleasant.

The much better explanation is that Illyrio himself has a vested interest in Westeros. Because he is a descendant of Daemon Blackfyre - and not only of Daemon Blackfyre but also of Bittersteel. We know that Daemon Blackfyre promised his eldest daughter Calla to Bittersteel before the First Rebellion. If Illyrio descends from a daughter of Calla and Aegor through a series of other daughters it is both explainable why people don't know who his distant ancestors were as well as how the hell Illyrio could make a contract written in blood with the Golden Company captain-general Myles Toyne - Illyrio does not only have Blackfyre blood but he is also a descendant (possibly the last one alive) or the legendary founder of the company. No successor of Bittersteel is likely in the position to turn down a descendant of Bittersteel.

However, it is not very likely that many men in the Golden Company know or suspect any of this. Toyne would have known, but Toyne is dead. Strickland only knows what Toyne and Illyrio told him, and that shouldn't be all that much.

[Lord Varys]

3 minutes ago, J. Stargaryen said:

Hardly. Aerys needn't disinherit Aegon and Rhaenys in order to name Viserys as his heir.

There is no need for that, true, but it effectively meant they were cut out of the succession permanently. Viserys III would have heirs of his own and Rhaegar's children (if they had lived) would have inevitably come only after them if they had come at all. They would have ended like Princess Vaella and Prince Maegor or Duncan's hypothetical children, assuming he had any and they survived Summerhall.

But we should get rid of the idea that there was a binding line of succession. The only thing that is usually clear in the succession in Westeros, regardless whether we talk about the king or some lord is who the immediate heir is. People usually also treat the eldest son of the heir as the next in line but that is because they expect that the heir will one day become king or lord, and then his eldest son usually will be heir.

But if an heir predeceases his lordly or royal father things change. The king or lord has to pick a new heir, and his grandson is still a child and he is not expecting to live all that long, and he has other (capable) sons that he will make one of them his new heir, not the grandson. That's how it goes. And if the younger son then becomes king or lord the kingdom or lordship belongs to his line permanently.

[Renly's Banana]

37 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

They know something, but it is very unlikely they know that if it is true. Men talk, and fucking Westeros by selling them a Blackfyre descendant for a Targaryen would be a pretty big story. A lot of people in the Golden Company might decide to take such a story and sell it to King Tommen in exchange for a pardon, a fat purse, or a lordship.

True, but the risks are reduced if only the upper echelons of the Company knew about it. That is, Strickland, Lysono Maar, etc. 
As for the Blackfyre connection, it could go either way, Serra or Illyrio himself. 

[Shi Qiang]

Clues point to him being BF but the ending of ADWD leave a lot of doubt.  I get it, Varys had the little birds but why would they care one way or another.  Varys told the truth as he saw it?  I don't know.  That's a lot of baby switching going on.  I will support R+L=Griff for now. 

[Makk]

1 hour ago, Lord Varys said:

They know something, but it is very unlikely they know that if it is true. Men talk, and fucking Westeros by selling them a Blackfyre descendant for a Targaryen would be a pretty big story. A lot of people in the Golden Company might decide to take such a story and sell it to King Tommen in exchange for a pardon, a fat purse, or a lordship.

Varys and Illyrio certainly wouldn't fake Connington's death to keep Aegon safe and then make such a glaring mistake.

Connington was convinced that the leaders of the Golden Company already knew that young Griff was Aegon when he announced him. Why would Varys and Illyrio tell the Golden Company that but not who he really is (assuming he is a Blackfyre)? 

[Lord Varys]

38 minutes ago, Renly's Banana said:

True, but the risks are reduced if only the upper echelons of the Company knew about it. That is, Strickland, Lysono Maar, etc. 
As for the Blackfyre connection, it could go either way, Serra or Illyrio himself. 

Tristan Rivers doesn't show much respect for 'the fat man' in his talks before the officers. And Strickland himself is reluctant to go along with the entire plan, going as far as saying that this whole pact thing was made by Myles Toyne. Both doesn't really indicate that those men know a lot.

The best explanation for Connington's impression that the gang knows stuff is that Illyrio's message causing the Golden Company to break its contract and go to Volantis resulted in Strickland confiding in his officers. But how much he knows and how much he told them we don't know. Neither do we know when or who told him about the plan. Illyrio stayed in contact with Strickland and the company even after Toyne's death as is evident by the fact that Duck tells us that Strickland send him to Griff to train his son.

There are a lot of unknowns here, most importantly the very fact that Myles Toyne is dead. Why is that? Why did George add that additional complication? Why did the Golden Company get this Strickland chap as captain-general, a reluctant and overly cautious man that is not likely to make all that much an impression? Just to make Aegon and Connington shine? Or is the story of Toyne's death going to become an important plot element later on.

Toyne was the only other man aside from Illyrio, Connington, and Varys himself who met at Lys to seal the pact and hand Aegon over to Connington. If somebody knew as much about Aegon as Illyrio and Varys themselves (and possibly Lemore) then it should be Toyne. But he is gone now. Perhaps because he actually rose with Maelys the Monstrous and the Band of Nine on the Stepstones. Perhaps Varys and Illyrio did not want a man with Aegon or Viserys III and the Dothraki (whom the Golden Company allegedly was supposed to join if we can believe Tristan Rivers) who actually knew the truth because they feared this could complicate things. Thus he had to go and was replaced by a man who would also do their bidding but for different reasons.

I'm pretty convinced Varys and Illyrio must have their agents with the Golden Company (just as Lemore and/or Haldon are likely their eyes in Aegon's gang) to keep an eye on them - Lysono Maar is a very likely candidate for that - but those men aren't die-hard Blackfyre loyalists or people that seem to care all that much about that cause. In fact, the Golden Company leadership isn't even all that dominated by Westerosi. There are some, but the crucial officers are mostly not Westerosi - Black Balaq commands the archers, Gorys Edoryen, a Volantene, is paymaster, and Lysono Maar spymaster.

As to the Serra thing: It would be a very lucky coincidence if Illyrio just happened to fall in love or find/marry a Blackfyre descendant around the time he also had to father a child to create this fake Aegon. And then is the huge question mark why on earth Illyrio would sacrifice his own son for such a risky longterm plan. Just because his dying wife asked him?

He must have a vested interest himself. We see in ADwD that he really loves and misses the boy. It wasn't easy for him to give him up.

The truth most likely is that Illyrio fucked quite a few Lysene whores with Valyrian features and in the end kept the one who gave him a boy who resembled Rhaegar's son the closest. The idea that he only tried once to get such a child and won that lucky shot isn't very likely. And it is not that Illyrio could not afford Lysene whores. Afterwards he would have married Serra (and then killed her, unless that touching grey plague story is true) to ensure that their son was seen as his legitimate heir by the Pentoshi society so that Aegon could inherit his estates should they abort or the plan or Illyrio himself die prematurely.

The idea that George introduced us to the concept of Valyrian-looking sex slaves being a rather common sight in Lys (and also in the brothels of the Volantenes - remember the whore that was entertaining Jorah when he abducted Tyrion?) only to not make use of that concept is very odd.

If the reader thinks all people with Valyrian features are secret Targaryens or Blackfyres then the reader is as naive as the people of Westeros most likely are. They will buy the story that Aegon is Rhaegar's son and many reader buy the idea that he is a Blackfyre or has a Blackfyre mother. He may have Blackfyre blood, but most likely not from the parent who gave him his Valyrian looks. Those are from a whore.

And in that sense Aegon would then be truly a fake and an impostor, a man who is not only not who he claims to be - the son of a royal prince - but also of very humble birth. In that sense Varys' practical joke would work much better - the ideal king is going to be a whore's son disguised as a prince. That is fun.

If Illyrio is doing this whole thing just for Varys (as he tries to make Tyrion believe) then Aegon might have neither Blackfyre nor Targaryen and could be a complete fake. Varys himself might be the last living Blackfyre descendant, but he is a eunuch and could not father a son. Thus Illyrio did the job for him. In that sense Varys would be fucking both the Targaryens and the Blackfyres, exploiting the loyalists of both camps. That is also a very interesting scenario.

2 minutes ago, Makk said:

Connington was convinced that the leaders of the Golden Company already knew that young Griff was Aegon when he announced him. Why would Varys and Illyrio tell the Golden Company that but not who he really is (assuming he is a Blackfyre)? 

See above. Because that would be dangerous knowledge. Varys could also have told Kevan the truth but he didn't.

Illyrio certainly needed to give Strickland an explanation as to why he thought the company should break a contract (which they never do) and then march to Volantis. 

What Rivers tells us - that Illyrio had originally told them that they were to join Viserys III and the Dothraki - also indicates that Illyrio was directing their actions there. We don't know whether Aegon was supposed to join the Golden Company and Viserys III/the Dothraki but even if he wasn't Illyrio surely must have eventually told the Golden Company that there was another male Targaryen pretender around. Else they simply wouldn't have known that when they talked to Connington.

[Makk]

I think he is Illyrio's son which is hinted at by clues with Illyrio's motives, the clothes, his fondness towards the boy, the mummers dragon etc

Further I think he is related to house Blackfyre through the female line. Multiple references to the male line ending, involvement of the Golden company, and in general going to so much effort of expanding the Blackfyre lore into the actual books. In particular this passage is a very strong clue

Quote

"The Golden Company marches toward Volantis as we speak, there to await the coming of our queen out of the east."
Beneath the gold, the bitter steel. "I had heard the Golden Company was under contract with one of the Free Cities."
"Myr." Illyrio smirked. "Contracts can be broken."
"There is more coin in cheese than I knew," said Tyrion. "How did you accomplish that?"
The magister waggled his fat fingers. "Some contracts are writ in ink, and some in blood. I say no more."
The dwarf pondered that. The Golden Company was reputedly the finest of the free companies, founded a century ago by Bittersteel, a bastard son of Aegon the Unworthy. When another of Aegon's Great Bastards tried to seize the Iron Throne from his trueborn half-brother, Bittersteel joined the revolt. Daemon Blackfyre had perished on the Redgrass Field, however, and his rebellion with him. Those followers of the Black Dragon who survived the battle yet refused to bend the knee fled across the narrow sea, among them Daemon's younger sons, Bittersteel, and hundreds of landless lords and knights who soon found themselves forced to sell their swords to eat. Some joined the Ragged Standard, some the Second Sons or Maiden's Men. Bittersteel saw the strength of House Blackfyre scattering to the four winds, so he formed the Golden Company to bind the exiles together.

 

[Makk]

7 hours ago, Ferocious Veldt Roarer said:

The difference is time. For the Targ-Blackfyre split, it's roughly a hundred years, five generations ago. For Stark-Karstark, it's a thousand years.

I'm not sure it's that important to argue about the definition of exactly what "black or red, a dragon is still a dragon" means and how true it is. As you point out the houses split relatively recently. But there have also been multiple wars, mainly living on different continents, and also being formed by a Bastard who could be seen as never having a genuine right to inherit. So there are similarities but also significant differences and bad blood between them. It must also be said that House Targaryen is now unrecognizable from the time when the original Blackfyre rebellions took place, so culturally a lot has changed on both sides since they split. 

A good example of how things can change rapidly would be North and South Korea. No one would consider a typical citizen from one of those  states to be like one from the other.

[J. Stargaryen]

10 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

There is no need for that, true, but it effectively meant they were cut out of the succession permanently. Viserys III would have heirs of his own and Rhaegar's children (if they had lived) would have inevitably come only after them if they had come at all. They would have ended like Princess Vaella and Prince Maegor or Duncan's hypothetical children, assuming he had any and they survived Summerhall.

Not really. Viserys was eight. It would probably be another eights years or so before he had any heirs. And once he started fathering children, there would be no guarantee he had sons. So Aegon is one accident from being the crown prince or king for about a decade, maybe more. Plus, there is a decent case to be made for marrying Viserys to Rhaenys. Re-securing the alliance with Dorne would be important to solidifying Viserys's eventual rule. Otherwise they might turn against Viserys in favor of Aegon and/or Rhaenys. Rhaegar's children backed by a great house would be very dangerous for Viserys. But with Viserys and Rhaenys holding the Dornish alliance together, as well as preventing internal strife, Aegon could be used to secure another alliance.

[Ferocious Veldt Roarer]

12 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

There is no need for that, true, but it effectively meant they were cut out of the succession permanently.

No, not "cut out permanently", merely "pushed back", as you'll notice in the very next sentence.

Quote

Viserys III would have heirs of his own and Rhaegar's children (if they had lived) would have inevitably come only after them if they had come at all.

Unless he died before taking a wife and siring legitimate sons of his own, for example.

Guess what's happened...

[Lord Varys]

45 minutes ago, J. Stargaryen said:

Not really. Viserys was eight. It would probably be another eights years or so before he had any heirs. And once he started fathering children, there would be no guarantee he had sons. So Aegon is one accident from being the crown prince or king for about a decade, maybe more. Plus, there is a decent case to be made for marrying Viserys to Rhaenys. Re-securing the alliance with Dorne would be important to solidifying Viserys's eventual rule. Otherwise they might turn against Viserys in favor of Aegon and/or Rhaenys. Rhaegar's children backed by a great house would be very dangerous for Viserys. But with Viserys and Rhaenys holding the Dornish alliance together, as well as preventing internal strife, Aegon could be used to secure another alliance.

Those are possibilities but the point is that if things worked as they were supposed then Rhaegar's line was out of the game now, just as they were when Aegon V got king (Daeron's and Aerion's lines where then out). Back when Jaehaerys I chose his son Baelon over his granddaughter, Rhaenys' line was also supposed to be out of the game. They only came back because Baelon, too, predeceased his royal father. If King Baelon I had ruled then his eldest son Viserys would have be named Prince of Dragonstone and Heir Apparent to the Iron Throne upon his father's coronation, and Laenor and Laena Velaryon would disappeared into obscurity (assuming Viserys eventually had had proper heirs of his own - but that question would only have come up decades later because King Baelon might have ruled for decades).

A King Viserys III could have still preferred his own children - male or female - over Rhaegar's son. The king would not be forced to go along with the anti-women stance. If he had no children he might treat Rhaegar's son as his heir presumptive and eventually chose a grandnephew as his successor (Aegon is too close in age to Viserys to be very likely to outlive the man - if Viserys lived to old age Aegon would be an old man by the time of his death, too).

The incest policy would like result in some marriages there, too, as you point out, but I'm more inclined to believe that Aerys II would have married Viserys to Daenerys rather than Rhaenys. He considered her blood to be tainted, and if Viserys had arranged his own marriage he would most likely also have preferred his own sister.

But that is just speculation. The point is that a decision to cut out an elder line from the succession is usually final unless something unforeseen happens. Such decisions are usually not made lightly, especially not in peaceful times. But unlike in a monarchy ruled more by laws and regulations such people would also never use their claims. Aegon can come back claim the Iron Throne as he is doing now, but it is much harder and not really based on legal arguments. More on popular vote and military success.

4 minutes ago, Ferocious Veldt Roarer said:

No, not "cut out permanently", merely "pushed back", as you'll notice in the very next sentence.

What I meant to say there is that Rhaegar's children would have come only after all the children and other siblings Viserys would have in the future. It was not that Aegon and Rhaenys would now come immediately after Viserys, even before Viserys' own children or siblings.

4 minutes ago, Ferocious Veldt Roarer said:

Unless he died before leaving heirs, for example.

Guess what's happened...

Sure, but Viserys III had an heir of his own, anyway. His sister Daenerys, the last surviving scion on House Targaryen. He acknowledged her as his heir and in combination with the fact that Aegon and Rhaenys were passed over in favor of Viserys, Daenerys has actually a very good case against Aegon. The only thing in favor of Aegon is the whole anti-Queen Regnant bias in Westeros. But against that Daenerys has the fact that Rhaegar's son is known to be dead. People have to believe that Aegon is who he says he is. But they can also not buy his story, or change their mind when Dany arrives. We'll have to see how things turn out.

Dany's dragons are also very likely (and rather easily) interpreted as a divine sign that she should be queen.

[spauldo17]

16 hours ago, Renly's Banana said:

There are actually some small hints in the Connington chapters that even the Golden Company knows or suspects he's a Blackfyre themselves. Something not even Jon seems to do. Their attitude when he's presented to them suggests they know something Connington does not, and their fast willingness to join his cause (even though Yunkai was ready to pay them much more) is very telling. 
I think it's possible Illyrio may have told them about Aegon's true lineage in advance to get them ready. 

I think the whole backstory about Serra being a Lyseni whore is bullcrap. She was probably the last descendant of the Blackfyres. The fact that the male line is extinguished while the female one is not keeps being brought up is a huge red flag. 

They do know something, but the something they know is that he is a Targaryen, at least according to the books.  When he's introduced as Aegon Targaryen and Jon thinks it's going to be a big reveal he's disappointed by the reaction,

" Aegon is introduced by Jon as Aegon VI, King of the Andals, the Rhoynar, and the First Men. This is met with silence by the officers, and Jon realizes the sellswords are already aware of Aegon's Identiry"

Which means they already know he's heir to the throne, and the only way that's possible is if he's Rhaegar's son.  If they knew he was a Blackfyre the reaction would've been different.

[weirwoodface]

So.

How does Jon Snow fit into all of this?

 

[Magnar of Skagos]

I tend to believe he is a Blackfyre, due to the substantial and obvious clues everyone usually talks about. I think it is quite fitting that he is a Blackfyre and not a Targaryen, as it seems to be the reason why we keep hearing about the Blackfyre's so often, to foreshadow Young Griff.

[Lord Varys]

37 minutes ago, weirwoodface said:

So.

How does Jon Snow fit into all of this?

He is irrelevant to the discussion. Nobody knows who his true parents are, and there is only a small chance that people are ever going to believe who he is supposed to be should it ever be publicized. Not after Aegon showed up. He looks the part but another son of Rhaegar's being raised as Eddard Stark's bastard (a man known for his honor) who also looks like a Stark is not going to win the support of any Targaryen loyalists.

But even if people were to believe the story of his parentage, he is ill-equipped to ever use this whole thing to push a claim. We don't know whether Rhaegar and Lyanna were married, nor whether the child from the second wife in a polygamous marriage (if it existed) is considered to be legitimate. People can contest that, and they will if that's what's in their interest. A lot of people most likely don't believe that Cersei's children are Robert's seed. They actually buy Stannis' story. Yet it is in their political interest to not publicly acknowledge that.

The only way Jon's Targaryen ancestry can become an important plot on the political level is if the head of House Targaryen actually acknowledges and accepts Jon as a Targaryen by adopting him into the house. If that doesn't happen - say, because Aegon and Dany both die before anybody learns about Jon's true heritage then this entire thing might become irrelevant. If Jon then rises to political prominence as a leader in his own right he is not likely going to do that as a Targaryen even if he is biologically a descendant of that house.

He cannot hope to establish himself as a Targaryen without any help from the Targaryen side. And he is not likely to get any of that up in the North.

[GyantSpyder]

These days I like the idea that Aegon is a Velaryon, the son of Illyrio Mopatis and Serra Velaryon.

They lie to Griff and say he is Aegon.

They lie to the Targ supporters and say he is a Targ.

They lie to the Blackfyre supporters and say he is a Blackfyre.

They win the throne on a lie when Aegon ousts Tommen/Cersei and they lose the throne on a lie when Daenerys shows up.

Also while I don't think this is really true, the idea that Varys is secretly a woman, not a eunuch, and "Varys" = "Serra V" kinda backwards is hilarious. Some of the circumstantial evidence for Varys being  a woman is interesting enough (like how he talks to Tyrion about what it's like to be a woman who is flirting vs. having an affair) that if that turned out to be true I'd be delighted.

But it would be enough for Varys to just be a Velaryon. That all lines up well with Aurane Waters, who is also a Velaryon "in disguise" and who Cersei thinks looks just like Rhaegar. If Aurane can look that much like Rhaegar, Jacaerys Velaryon or whatever can look like Aegon Targaryan.

This would require some explanation of various sorts for the choices of Monford Velaryon, but it's not a terribly hard thing to rationalize.