Aegon Blackfyre or Aegon Targaryen

[Lord Varys]

21 minutes ago, The Twinslayer said:

That surprises me.  I was sure Aegon would return as soon as we were told that the child's skull was a red ruin.  

That was just a rather gruesome method to kill a child. And a historical note at that, to Caligula's little daughter Iulia Drusilla.

A real or fake Aegon could easily enough have shown up if the infant was killed in a number of different ways. It was never all that likely that such a dead royal child would be properly identified after the murder. And even if it was there would be easily enough ways around that. Henry IV publicly displayed the corpse of Richard II in London yet that didn't dissuade people from spreading stories that the king was still alive. But I never saw any reason that George would go down that road. Not while this child was such basically irrelevant to the plot.

And George could (and most likely would) have build up the Aegon story much better had he known that he was writing it when he was writing the first chapters of Daenerys in AGoT. It would have been very easy to drop the the name 'Strickland' or 'Griff' during some conversations Dany could have overheard in Illyrio's manse just as George could also have included hints about a vaster conspiracy/plan between Illyrio and Viserys in those early chapters, things Viserys might not have been willing to share with Dany.

Viserys may not have known about Aegon but if Tristan Rivers knew the Golden Company was supposed to join forces with Viserys III and the Dothraki then Viserys could also have known about the Golden Company.

[Bael's Bastard]

37 minutes ago, The Twinslayer said:

My point is that there are heavy hints in AGOT and ACOK that Aegon isn't really dead -- that he is the hidden prince who managed to escape the murder of the rest of his family.  The Blackfyre stuff comes much later, in ASOS.  And when it does come, there is a passing reference by Stannis, a passing reference by Jaime (not in the same sentence where Connington is mentioned, but nearby), but there is a long discussion of it where Jon is directly compared to Daemon Blackfyre.  The Blackfyre story is much more closely associated with Jon.  

In addition to the comparisons between Daemon B. and Jon, we have to remember that the history of the Blackfyre rebellions is also the backstory for Bloodraven.  Identifying the three-eyed crow has been central to Bran's story since the very beginning.  The information about the Blackfyres, and the rivalry between Bloodraven and Bittersteel, the reasons Bloodraven was sent to the Wall, all provide information relevant to Bloodraven and Bran.  That is more than enough reason to include details about the Blackfyres in ADWD.     

I disagree. I don't think the early books hint at all that Aegon escaped or wasn't really killed. But the brutality of his death left him in such a state that someone like Varys could then take advantage of it after the fact. It is only in hindsight, after knowing that Gregor had smashed the child's face in that way, that Varys could craft this story he is now spinning.

Yes, the Blackfyre stuff comes later than the Aegon stuff, but the only people connecting Young Griff, who comes even later, to the actual Aegon are people like Varys and Connington, one of whom didn't meet the kid for years and is relying on the word of the other. Young Griff is surrounded by Blackfyre stuff. His army is literally the Blackfyre army.

[The Twinslayer]

59 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

That was just a rather gruesome method to kill a child. And a historical note at that, to Caligula's little daughter Iulia Drusilla.

A real or fake Aegon could easily enough have shown up if the infant was killed in a number of different ways. It was never all that likely that such a dead royal child would be properly identified after the murder. And even if it was there would be easily enough ways around that. Henry IV publicly displayed the corpse of Richard II in London yet that didn't dissuade people from spreading stories that the king was still alive. But I never saw any reason that George would go down that road. Not while this child was such basically irrelevant to the plot.

And George could (and most likely would) have build up the Aegon story much better had he known that he was writing it when he was writing the first chapters of Daenerys in AGoT. It would have been very easy to drop the the name 'Strickland' or 'Griff' during some conversations Dany could have overheard in Illyrio's manse just as George could also have included hints about a vaster conspiracy/plan between Illyrio and Viserys in those early chapters, things Viserys might not have been willing to share with Dany.

Viserys may not have known about Aegon but if Tristan Rivers knew the Golden Company was supposed to join forces with Viserys III and the Dothraki then Viserys could also have known about the Golden Company.

 

39 minutes ago, Bael's Bastard said:

I disagree. I don't think the early books hint at all that Aegon escaped or wasn't really killed. But the brutality of his death left him in such a state that someone like Varys could then take advantage of it after the fact. It is only in hindsight, after knowing that Gregor had smashed the child's face in that way, that Varys could craft this story he is now spinning.

Yes, the Blackfyre stuff comes later than the Aegon stuff, but the only people connecting Young Griff, who comes even later, to the actual Aegon are people like Varys and Connington, one of whom didn't meet the kid for years and is relying on the word of the other. Young Griff is surrounded by Blackfyre stuff. His army is literally the Blackfyre army.

Fair enough, but the reason I was so certain after reading AGOT that Aegon was alive is that whenever someone really dies we get clear confirmation.  Consider this:  when Ned dies, we get it confirmed from multiple different POV characters, including both of his daughters.  Then his head is displayed for everyone to see so there can be no doubt he is dead.  The same is true of Rhaegar (whole armies saw that, and Ned saw the body lying in the mud), Aerys (Ned saw his bleeding corpse), Viserys (Dany and a crowd of Dothraki watched that), Khal Drogo (the same), Robert (multiple witnesses), and so on.  But when GRRM is less clear, I wonder if the person is still alive.  Ashara Dayne is a good example.  In AGOT, the only information about her death is Cersei's comment that she threw herself off a tower "I'm told."  Aegon is another -- thought to be dead, but no one saw the dead child's face.  And that fits with later books, when Robb and Catelyn incorrectly believe that Bran, Rickon, and Arya are all dead, and they act on that belief.  Davos and Connington are falsely believed to be dead.  Ben Stark is believed to be dead but it is a good bet he is going to show up again.

What we don't have in these books is an example of someone turning up and falsely claiming to be someone who was thought to be dead.       

[Bael's Bastard]

Off the top of my head, we have Jeyne being forced to pose as Arya, who Robb and Jon believed to be dead. Arya just also happens to be alive, unknown to pretty much everyone.

AeGriff certainly believes he is Aegon son of Rhaegar. If the claim is false it is unbeknownst to him, and does not originate with him.  

[Lord Varys]

1 hour ago, The Twinslayer said:

Fair enough, but the reason I was so certain after reading AGOT that Aegon was alive is that whenever someone really dies we get clear confirmation.  Consider this:  when Ned dies, we get it confirmed from multiple different POV characters, including both of his daughters.  Then his head is displayed for everyone to see so there can be no doubt he is dead.  The same is true of Rhaegar (whole armies saw that, and Ned saw the body lying in the mud), Aerys (Ned saw his bleeding corpse), Viserys (Dany and a crowd of Dothraki watched that), Khal Drogo (the same), Robert (multiple witnesses), and so on.  

Actually, the no POV ever saw Robert Baratheon's corpse. We only have Pycelle's word that he is dead, and have no idea what happened to the corpse. Somebody should ask George about that. I'm not believing the guy is alive but if you think what happened to Sandor and Gregor who was also dying off their wounds there is a not so bad chance that he could be still alive.

The only thing we know about the aftermath of Robert's death is that Cersei really went through with Robert's command to serve the boar after his funeral.

Back during AGoT I had little reason to assume who were officially dead might return. Such things do not happen in the first book. That changed during the later books. And keep in mind that we don't even get a description of Rhaegar's children in the early books. If Aegon had looked like a Martell the chances that anybody would rally to the banner of such a guy would be very small. Just as they are with Jon Snow. We had little reason to assume that any of Rhaegar's children were special until the House of the Undying. Then Aegon suddenly became important. The first inclination there is to think about this prophecy thing, concluding that, if it is true, the boy might still be alive somewhere. And now he is here, as Varys says, and Rhaegar's belief that he is the promised prince will come up again. That is a crucial aspect of that story. It is not just a political story. People usually overlook or ignore that. When the winds of winter are blowing the people believing Rhaegar's son is their savior will also look to him to deliver them from the Others and the wights (assuming they learn that they exist, which they should eventually). And he might even try.

2 hours ago, Bael's Bastard said:

I disagree. I don't think the early books hint at all that Aegon escaped or wasn't really killed. But the brutality of his death left him in such a state that someone like Varys could then take advantage of it after the fact. It is only in hindsight, after knowing that Gregor had smashed the child's face in that way, that Varys could craft this story he is now spinning.

As I've said above, Aegon being dead is enough for the story. Aegon still living as a septon, maester, or black brother would have prevented any such plan, but the smashed head wasn't a necessary condition. Only his (alleged) death was. Even if some people had correctly identified the corpse of a poisoned, stabbed, smothered, or strangled Aegon only a tiny fraction of people (many of which might be dead or elsewhere nearly twenty years later) would have *really* know this truth for a fact (only those who had known Aegon in life and saw the corpse of the boy after his death and before his cremation. But the relevant question is what a majority of the lords and people of the Realm will choose to believe when Aegon shows up, not what some people actually for a fact. Kevan doubts that Aegon is truly while he is dying. Had he lived he surely would have publicly announced Aegon was an impostor even if he personally had doubts.

And I'm pretty sure a majority of the lords who received one of Stannis' letters believes his story. But since they don't want a King Stannis, fear the power of House Lannister, see no advantage in committing themselves to any of the pretenders, already have declared for King Robb, etc. they ignore it. Quite a few people are likely to ignore people claiming that Prince Aegon Targaryen is dead beyond the shadow of a doubt.

2 hours ago, Bael's Bastard said:

Yes, the Blackfyre stuff comes later than the Aegon stuff, but the only people connecting Young Griff, who comes even later, to the actual Aegon are people like Varys and Connington, one of whom didn't meet the kid for years and is relying on the word of the other. Young Griff is surrounded by Blackfyre stuff. His army is literally the Blackfyre army.

In fact, all Varys' talk does - and he is it that brings up the dead children, especially Rhaenys - is establish him as a hidden Targaryen loyalist not so much indicate that any of the children are alive. Aside from, perhaps, the very subtle clue in ACoK that only Rhaenys might be dead.

1 hour ago, The Twinslayer said:

But when GRRM is less clear, I wonder if the person is still alive.  Ashara Dayne is a good example.  In AGOT, the only information about her death is Cersei's comment that she threw herself off a tower "I'm told."  Aegon is another -- thought to be dead, but no one saw the dead child's face.  And that fits with later books, when Robb and Catelyn incorrectly believe that Bran, Rickon, and Arya are all dead, and they act on that belief.  Davos and Connington are falsely believed to be dead.  Ben Stark is believed to be dead but it is a good bet he is going to show up again.

Yeah, after the story progresses people have a good reason to wonder. But not in the first book. And it is certainly not all that wrong to take something you are told at face value if you have good reason to assume that the character mentioning it had good information. The chances for Ashara Dayne faking her death are not all that good. Connington is more suspect considering that he allegedly died in Essos.

2 hours ago, Bael's Bastard said:

Yes, the Blackfyre stuff comes later than the Aegon stuff, but the only people connecting Young Griff, who comes even later, to the actual Aegon are people like Varys and Connington, one of whom didn't meet the kid for years and is relying on the word of the other. Young Griff is surrounded by Blackfyre stuff. His army is literally the Blackfyre army.

That is certainly the case, and there is certainly a good chance that some people in Westeros will raise their eyebrows over this strange alliance between a Targaryen prince and the Blackfyre partisans from the Golden Company. But then, the Golden Company is a company of sellswords. Stannis thought he could hire them. Why not an exiled Targaryen prince?

Some might still see this as a sign that something might be fishy there. But the guess that this may be, in the end, not a red but a black dragon might Aegon not necessarily make less kingly. He might still make a fine monarch in the eyes of his followers. The story that he is Rhaegar's son has to be maintained but in light of the alternatives - hated Stannis, the bastards Tommen and Myrcella lacking royal blood, the madman Euron Greyjoy - even a Targaryen prince who may actually be a Blackfyre descendant might not look all that bad. Especially if he wins a lot of battles.

Daenerys might be not be happy with that, though. Assuming she ends up having very good reasons to be really cross with Aegon and Varys/Illyrio. Just Aegon's existence is not enough for that.

But any Blackfyre talk - if it comes up before Aegon takes the Iron Throne - is most likely not playing all that important a role. People are likely to care less about that story than they cared about Stannis' story about Cersei's children. And that story didn't affect the course of the war all that much. Or at all. It tarnished the reputation of Cersei's children but as long as Tywin lived everything was fine. Now that things are falling apart a lot of people might remember those claims and end up defecting to Aegon but that wasn't an option when the choice was between Joff/Tommen and Stannis.

A crucial element there is going to be Arianne. She is likely going to meet Aegon in her first chapter, and she will examine him and question both him and Connington closely. Will the Blackfyre idea cross her mind? Is she going to demand details how Aegon got out of KL? Will she question Aegon about his earliest memories and his childhood? Will she something or herself, her aunt, or her other Martell kin in Aegon? Will she push them about their alliance with the Golden Company? Will they tell them the truth about Varys and Illyrio, and their claims that they saved Prince Aegon from KL? Does Arianne know something about Varys that could convince her to believe Aegon is real? Is Varys Doran's secret friend in KL?

The Illyrio connection could certainly have a strong impact on Arianne. She must know from Doran that Viserys III struck his deal with Khal Drogo while he was guest with a Pentoshi magister of that name. And if this Illyrio chap (and his buddy Varys) are confirmed to have been worked with the last Targaryen king then the idea that they might also have save Prince Aegon's life isn't all that far-fetched. 

They must have Arianne and Dorne. And to get her they might be forced to let down their visor, figuratively speaking. Lemore might play into that as well, and if she were Ashara (as some people have suggested) that could also help to convince her. And since Varys is such a good player he should have pieces in play to do the convincing. Nothing works better than people who actually believe in the stuff they are saying. If you want to fool people convince somebody - like Connington and Aegon himself - that a lie is true and then let him spread it. He might be much more efficient than you could ever hope to be. Although Varys himself is also a damned good liar.

[The Twinslayer]

3 hours ago, Bael's Bastard said:

Off the top of my head, we have Jeyne being forced to pose as Arya, who Robb and Jon believed to be dead. Arya just also happens to be alive, unknown to pretty much everyone.

AeGriff certainly believes he is Aegon son of Rhaegar. If the claim is false it is unbeknownst to him, and does not originate with him.  

Okay, Jeyne Poole is one counter-example.  Of course, it is obvious to everyone that she is a fake, and that will be more obvious when the real Arya shows up.  Young Griff does not have to worry about the real Aegon showing up because he is the real Aegon (or if he isn't then the real Aegon is really dead).

But while Jeyne is one counter-example, there are loads of examples of people who were thought dead but who were not.  

2 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

And keep in mind that we don't even get a description of Rhaegar's children in the early books. If Aegon had looked like a Martell the chances that anybody would rally to the banner of such a guy would be very small. Just as they are with Jon Snow. We had little reason to assume that any of Rhaegar's children were special until the House of the Undying. Then Aegon suddenly became important. The first inclination there is to think about this prophecy thing, concluding that, if it is true, the boy might still be alive somewhere. And now he is here, as Varys says, and Rhaegar's belief that he is the promised prince will come up again. That is a crucial aspect of that story. It is not just a political story. People usually overlook or ignore that. When the winds of winter are blowing the people believing Rhaegar's son is their savior will also look to him to deliver them from the Others and the wights (assuming they learn that they exist, which they should eventually). And he might even try.

 

One small quibble with this.  We are, in fact, given a description of Rhaegar's children in AGOT.  We are told that all Targaryens have silver-gold hair and purple eyes, just like all Baratheons have black hair.  

"The Targaryens are the blood of the dragon, descended from the high lords of the ancient Freehold of Valyria, their heritage proclaimed in a striking (some say inhuman) beauty, with lilac or indigo or violet eyes and hair of silver-gold or platinum white."  

That is born out by the description of every Targaryen who appears in the main books.  You have to read the Dunk & Egg stories or the post-ADWD books (TPATQ, etc.) to find out that a Targaryen prince could have a son or daughter who does not meet that description.    

That is one of the reasons that back when we only had AGOT through ASOS and you had to buy a collection of short stories to get The Hedge Knight, a lot of people were convinced that Rhaegar and Lyanna had had a child but that it could not be Jon.  

[LynnS]

13 hours ago, The Twinslayer said:

 

Fair enough, but the reason I was so certain after reading AGOT that Aegon was alive is that whenever someone really dies we get clear confirmation.  Consider this:  when Ned dies, we get it confirmed from multiple different POV characters, including both of his daughters.  Then his head is displayed for everyone to see so there can be no doubt he is dead.  The same is true of Rhaegar (whole armies saw that, and Ned saw the body lying in the mud), Aerys (Ned saw his bleeding corpse), Viserys (Dany and a crowd of Dothraki watched that), Khal Drogo (the same), Robert (multiple witnesses), and so on.  But when GRRM is less clear, I wonder if the person is still alive.  Ashara Dayne is a good example.  In AGOT, the only information about her death is Cersei's comment that she threw herself off a tower "I'm told."  Aegon is another -- thought to be dead, but no one saw the dead child's face.  And that fits with later books, when Robb and Catelyn incorrectly believe that Bran, Rickon, and Arya are all dead, and they act on that belief.  Davos and Connington are falsely believed to be dead.  Ben Stark is believed to be dead but it is a good bet he is going to show up again.

What we don't have in these books is an example of someone turning up and falsely claiming to be someone who was thought to be dead.       

I agree.  I'm not satisfied that Aegon is dead or that Rhaegar wouldn't take measures to ensure his safety by removing him from KL considering that he thought he was the PwiP.  

We do have repeated examples of those who are thought to be dead.  In particular, Samwell is bound by oath three times by Coldhands not to speak of Bran's existence; to let the world think he is dead so that nobody comes looking for him.    Then there is Jon, who swaps Mance's baby for Gilly's.  Baby swapping and taking a new identity is established well enough IMO.

Consider Septa Lemore; someone who is disguised as a God's Wife, who tells young Griff that he isn't the only one who has to remain hidden.

Quote

God had a wife, Asherah, whom the Book of Kings suggests was worshiped alongside Yahweh in his temple in Israel, according to an Oxford scholar. In 1967, Raphael Patai was the first historian to mention that the ancient Israelites worshiped both Yahweh and Asherah.  

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Asherah

Ashara Dayne jumped off a tower to her death, we are told.  But her body was never recovered.

[irishpisano]

If he's a Targaryen or Blackfyre or Mummer i don't think matters.... i think Varys is using him as a decoy to draw attention away from Daenerys's invasion a la Operation Fortitude in WW2

[Bael's Bastard]

10 hours ago, The Twinslayer said:

Okay, Jeyne Poole is one counter-example.  Of course, it is obvious to everyone that she is a fake, and that will be more obvious when the real Arya shows up.  Young Griff does not have to worry about the real Aegon showing up because he is the real Aegon (or if he isn't then the real Aegon is really dead).

But while Jeyne is one counter-example, there are loads of examples of people who were thought dead but who were not. 

The point is we do have an example, particularly, an example where the person is being claimed to be a main POV character believed by many to be dead. I am not sure if there are others, as that was just off the top of my head. But there is a precedent set as early as ASOS (the same book Connington and Blackfyre were first mentioned) for a group of conspirators having someone pose as an important person believed to be dead in order for that important person's identity to benefit the aims of those conspirators.

There are obvious differences between the cases of Jeyne and AeGriff. But both Jeyne and AeGriff are being used by their respective handlers to claim what the important people they are being claimed to be are likely to be seen as having a right to by those who are intended to be moved by their reappearances. Jeyne is being used as Arya to claim Winterfell, AeGriff is being used as Aegon to claim the Iron Throne and Westeros. It remains to be seen if AeGriff actually is who he is being claimed to be.

10 hours ago, The Twinslayer said:

One small quibble with this.  We are, in fact, given a description of Rhaegar's children in AGOT.  We are told that all Targaryens have silver-gold hair and purple eyes, just like all Baratheons have black hair.  

"The Targaryens are the blood of the dragon, descended from the high lords of the ancient Freehold of Valyria, their heritage proclaimed in a striking (some say inhuman) beauty, with lilac or indigo or violet eyes and hair of silver-gold or platinum white."  

That is born out by the description of every Targaryen who appears in the main books.  You have to read the Dunk & Egg stories or the post-ADWD books (TPATQ, etc.) to find out that a Targaryen prince could have a son or daughter who does not meet that description.    

That is one of the reasons that back when we only had AGOT through ASOS and you had to buy a collection of short stories to get The Hedge Knight, a lot of people were convinced that Rhaegar and Lyanna had had a child but that it could not be Jon.  

I believe LV is correct that we do not actually get any descriptions of what Rhaenys or Aegon specifically looked like in AGOT. It is understandable why readers might have assumed that they had the same hair and eye color as the Targaryens who are described to us. I imagine that is the impression GRRM wanted readers to have, and that he omitted details about Rhaenys's looks because of that.

But while AGOT may not tell us of dark haired Targaryens, keep in mind that one of the major plots in AGOT involves Ned Stark deducing that Cersei's children were not Robert's partially based on the discovery that black haired Baratheons and blonde or yellow or even red haired people always produced black haired children, including Robert's bastards.

In other words, he might not have explicitly told us of any Targaryens with dark hair, but we were told in the very first book that in this world the child of a parent with dark hair and a parent with light hair might inherit the hair color of the parent with dark hair.

[The Twinslayer]

7 hours ago, LynnS said:

I agree.  I'm not satisfied that Aegon is dead or that Rhaegar wouldn't take measures to ensure his safety by removing him from KL considering that he thought he was the PwiP.  

We do have repeated examples of those who are thought to be dead.  In particular, Samwell is bound by oath three times by Coldhands not to speak of Bran's existence; to let the world think he is dead so that nobody comes looking for him.    Then there is Jon, who swaps Mance's baby for Gilly's.  Baby swapping and taking a new identity is established well enough IMO.

Consider Septa Lemore; someone who is disguised as a God's Wife, who tells young Griff that he isn't the only one who has to remain hidden.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Asherah

Ashara Dayne jumped off a tower to her death, we are told.  But her body was never recovered.

Good points.  And if any of these people were to come back (e.g., Bran), it will be the real Bran and not a fake.  

5 hours ago, Bael's Bastard said:

The point is we do have an example, particularly, an example where the person is being claimed to be a main POV character believed by many to be dead. I am not sure if there are others, as that was just off the top of my head. But there is a precedent set as early as ASOS (the same book Connington and Blackfyre were first mentioned) for a group of conspirators having someone pose as an important person believed to be dead in order for that important person's identity to benefit the aims of those conspirators.

There are obvious differences between the cases of Jeyne and AeGriff. But both Jeyne and AeGriff are being used by their respective handlers to claim what the important people they are being claimed to be are likely to be seen as having a right to by those who are intended to be moved by their reappearances. Jeyne is being used as Arya to claim Winterfell, AeGriff is being used as Aegon to claim the Iron Throne and Westeros. It remains to be seen if AeGriff actually is who he is being claimed to be.

I believe LV is correct that we do not actually get any descriptions of what Rhaenys or Aegon specifically looked like in AGOT. It is understandable why readers might have assumed that they had the same hair and eye color as the Targaryens who are described to us. I imagine that is the impression GRRM wanted readers to have, and that he omitted details about Rhaenys's looks because of that.

But while AGOT may not tell us of dark haired Targaryens, keep in mind that one of the major plots in AGOT involves Ned Stark deducing that Cersei's children were not Robert's partially based on the discovery that black haired Baratheons and blonde or yellow or even red haired people always produced black haired children, including Robert's bastards.

In other words, he might not have explicitly told us of any Targaryens with dark hair, but we were told in the very first book that in this world the child of a parent with dark hair and a parent with light hair might inherit the hair color of the parent with dark hair.

The Jeyne Poole/Arya example only takes you so far because we know the real Arya is alive and we know where she is.  In contrast, if Griff/Aegon is a fake, then in all likelihood the real Aegon is dead and there is no danger he will show up and accuse Griff of being an imposter.  

And I think that if you read the part of the AGOT appendix that relates to the Targaryens the conclusion is inescapable that a child of a Targaryen prince or king will look like all the other Targaryens.  It comes after we learn that one family can have a dominant trait (Barratheons with black hair) that will be passed on no matter what.  And after we learn that Lannisters can have non-blond children (Baratheon + Lannister = Baratheon features) and that both Tullys and Starks can have children that look like their non-Stark parents (Ned and Catelyn prove that sometimes Stark looks dominate while sometimes Tully looks dominate). Then we get the appendix, which says that the Targaryens are the blood of the dragon, that they sometimes marry their brothers/sisters but sometimes marry outside their own bloodline, and that the blood of the dragon is proclaimed by the signature Targ features (the "inhuman beauty").  That is a pretty clear statement that Targ features dominate in the same way Baratheon features do.  Either GRRM made a mistake here, Jon is not Rhaegar's son, or GRRM decided that Jon would be Rhaegar's son some time after publishing AGOT.    

[Bael's Bastard]

@The Twinslayer

On top of the theme of fair hair yielding to dark which is so significant in AGOT, the rumor of Orys Baratheon being Aegon's bastard brother is also introduced in the AGOT appendix. And yet we know from AGOT that Robert has black hair, as do all the Baratheons' known issue.

So even before we found out that Orys actually had black hair, and that Robert's grandmother was Targaryen, we already had enough information to know that Orys either had Targaryen looks and the dark Baratheon hair of his wife won out in his descendants, or he was rumored to be the bastard of a Targaryen despite not having Targaryen looks at all.

In either scenario, the idea that the children or descendants of Targaryens automatically have or are expected to have Targaryen looks even when one parent is not Targaryen doesn't survive the very first book. And now we know Orys was rumored to be a bastard brother of Aegon even though he had black hair and black eyes.

[Aline de Gavrillac]

On 5/8/2017 at 8:53 PM, Rosetta Stone said:

Reading this discussion made me really question the identity of young Griff.

http://asoiaf.westeros.org/index.php?/topic/145906-daenerys-young-griff-and-stannis/

I do not believe Varys lied to the practically dead Kevan Lannister.  Varys is not aware of it if Aegon is a Blackfyre. 

Jon Connington has to suspect at some level that his foster son may be an unwitting impostor.  If that is the case he is taking a big gamble that the Martells would not find out the truth.  Would the Martells support a Blackfyre? 

Does it even matter whether he's the real Aegon or not?  Preston Jacobs brought up an important detail in this video episode.  Specifically, King Aerys disinherited Rhaegar's children so it goes without saying that Aegon and any other child of Rhaegar doesn't have any claims to the iron throne. 

If the Martells support Aegon, what would they have to do to beat the Lannisters without dragons?  The Lannister+Tyrell partnership looks invincible to me.

They can't beat the Lannisters.  Revenge isn't sweet and that is one of the lessons that the Martells, Arya, Sansa, and Littlefinger may learn the hard way.  The two strongest families on the same team is too strong for anyone in westeros to beat. 

[Lord Varys]

Sorry, the conclusion that the general description of the incest-born Targaryens extends also to those with a mixed heritage does not follow from the books. Dany's vision of Rhaego shows him as a Dothraki with almond-shaped eyes and silver-gold hair. The idea that a Targaryen-Martell child would thus look like a proper incest-born Targaryen is just not very likely.

There is no indication whatsoever that the Targaryen features are as dominant as the magical Baratheon genes. And even those turned out to be not as dominant as they appear to be in AGoT. Princess Rhaenys has a Baratheon mother yet neither she nor her Velaryon children, Targaryen grandchildren, and Velaryon great-grandchildren seem to inherit the Baratheon looks. We don't even know whether Jocelyn Baratheon had black hair (she had a Velaryon mother, after all).

[Amris]

On 9.5.2017 at 2:53 AM, Rosetta Stone said:

Reading this discussion made me really question the identity of young Griff.

http://asoiaf.westeros.org/index.php?/topic/145906-daenerys-young-griff-and-stannis/

I do not believe Varys lied to the practically dead Kevan Lannister.  Varys is not aware of it if Aegon is a Blackfyre. 

Jon Connington has to suspect at some level that his foster son may be an unwitting impostor.  If that is the case he is taking a big gamble that the Martells would not find out the truth.  Would the Martells support a Blackfyre? 

Does it even matter whether he's the real Aegon or not?  Preston Jacobs brought up an important detail in this video episode.  Specifically, King Aerys disinherited Rhaegar's children so it goes without saying that Aegon and any other child of Rhaegar doesn't have any claims to the iron throne. 

If the Martells support Aegon, what would they have to do to beat the Lannisters without dragons?  The Lannister+Tyrell partnership looks invincible to me.

The conclusion that Rhaegar's children cannot have any claims to the throne "because Aerys 'disinherited' them" is not valid.

Reason:

What Aerys did was make Viserys his (his = Aerys') heir once Rhaegar had died. So all he decided was that Rhaegar's kids are not Aerys' heirs. But that's not the question we are facing now!

Viserys is dead. The question the realm faces now (if the Targs regain the power) is not who Aerys' heir is - it is who Viserys' heir is.

We know that Viserys has no children. So the throne goes to his nearest relatives. Who are his nearest relatives? His siblings (Rhaegar and Dany). Since Rhaegar himself is dead Rhaegar's descendents take Rhaegar's place.

Now whether the older brother's line (Rhaegars) or the younger sister's line (Dany's) takes precedence under Targaryen or Westerosi or whatever inheritence law is more than I can say since I don't know that inheritance law. The point I am making here is simply that Aerys' decision to make Viserys his heir does not rule out Rhaegar's children's claim as Viserys' (not Aerys') heirs.

 

 

 

[Lord Varys]

2 hours ago, Amris said:

Now whether the older brother's line (Rhaegars) or the younger sister's line (Dany's) takes precedence under Targaryen or Westerosi or whatever inheritence law is more than I can say since I don't know that inheritance law. The point I am making here is simply that Aerys' decision to make Viserys his heir does not rule out Rhaegar's children's claim as Viserys' (not Aerys') heirs.

You are right there, but Viserys III also chose an heir, and his heir was his sister, Daenerys Stormborn. Dany is styled Princess of Dragonstone in AGoT, and it is quite clear that she is seen and recognized as Viserys' heir by the people around her. Perhaps Viserys III would have made a different decision had he known that Aegon was (allegedly) still alive. But he did not. And one can wonder whether he would have preferred his nephew over his sister in such a scenario considering that his nephew could also have been under the impression that he was the rightful king anyway.

[LynnS]

16 hours ago, The Twinslayer said:

Good points.  And if any of these people were to come back (e.g., Bran), it will be the real Bran and not a fake.

Here's another example of hiding someone by changing their identity and concealing hair color:

Quote

 

A Clash of Kings - Tyrion X

The queen intends to send Prince Tommen away." They knelt alone in the hushed dimness of the sept, surrounded by shadows and flickering candles, but even so Lancel kept his voice low. "Lord Gyles will take him to Rosby, and conceal him there in the guise of a page. They plan to darken his hair and tell everyone that he is the son of a hedge knight."

 

[Ser_Jon_General]

My biggest problem with the idea of Aegon being the true son of Rhaegar is fairly simple.  The entire plot relies not only on Varys successfully swapping the baby but on the fake-Aegon being brutally murdered during the sack of King's Landing and having his face smashed in badly enough that he wouldn't be recognised.

What happens if the Lannister army turns up and actually reinforces Aerys?  What if someone realises that the babies have been switched?  What if the child isn't killed or isn't mutilated?  The entire plot relies on events happening exactly as they do.  It's a post-ex-facto plot, it can only work because the details of the plot have been made to fit the actual events after the fact.

I've always felt that Aegon's story is GRRM's retelling of the legend of King Arthur, with his own spin.  He's already given us his version of The Frog Prince, where a brave frog sets sail on adventure (literally in Quentyn's case, he sails on a ship named Adventure) hoping to earn a kiss from the princess which will magically transform him into a prince.  Of course, with GRRM's spin on the tale the princess rejects the frog and he gets roasted by a dragon.

For Aegon = King Arthur, you have a few similarities:
They're both the sons of men heavily associated with dragons.  Arthur is the son of Uther Pendragon, Aegon the son of Rhaegar
They're both hidden by wizards after their birth.  Arthur is taken by Merlin, Aegon by Varys (described by Arya in AGOT "The one in the steel cap, he had the torch, he said that they had to hurry. I think he was a wizard.")
They're taken as foster children by knights.  Arthur by Sir Ector, Aegon by Jon Connington.  Interestingly, Sir Ector is unaware of Arthur's true identity.

What we're missing is the proof that Arthur/Aegon is the rightful king.  The proof for Arthur comes when he draws the sword from the stone, in ASOIAF there is a missing sword that that might reveal Aegon's lineage - Blackfyre.  Handily we also have a man who is slowly turning into a stone.

The ironic twist in this case would be that unlike the Sword in the Stone marking Arthur as the rightful king, Blackfyre would mark Aegon as anything but.

[Aegon1FanBoy]

Aegon Targaryen for me why because it's more intriguing for me hell if elia was aprt of the swap, which even lead to her daughter's death is all the more interesting for all parties past and present. Plus i have a 100 euro on him being real so martin better not leave it up in the air. I have this and 6 other mysteries in series, for bets. come on martin don't let me lose so much money 

[Ralphis Baratheon]

Wouldn't have Elia known about the baby swap?  Wouldn't she have went to Rhaenys while the Red Keep was being raided and held her instead of the fake Aegon? I mean I'm sure she was a nice women and would feel bad about a baby being killed but wouldn't she want to comfort and try to protect her actual child Rhaenys and left the piss water prince in his cradle?