Illyrio and Lys

[Vaedys Targaryen]

I've noticed that Ilyrio has quite a lot of slaves from Lys; his wife Serra was a Lysene, Doreah was another Lysene and then there is his "newest addition", the unknown girl simply known as Girl bought to please a king.

Not to mention, that he is best friends with Varys, who is also from Lys.

Illyrio seems to have quite a few ties to Lys.

There is a theory that Varys and Serra were siblings from either a Blackfyre line or from Aerion "Brightflame" Targaryen, because he spent many years of exile in Lys and most likely fathered a few bastards (GRRM even confirmed this possibility).

Is it possible that Doreah and the Girl are also similar descendants from either line? Sure, they'd most definately be bastards of bastards, but Illyrio did indeed say that house Blackfyre is still alive in the female line. Could this female line be from these many Lyseni women and girls that Illyrio buys? It is after all not that long ago since Aerion was in Lys and bastards from a Westerosi could be rather easy to track down.

 

Edit: Also, two of these three women are relatively young, but seemingly speak the Common Tongue very well, almost fluently. Could it be because of their heritage?

[sweetsunray]

Logical question.

Indeed Serra, Doreah and the "girl" who wants to say her name but Tyrion cuts her short he ain't interested in knowing her name are all Lysene bedslaves that Illyrio fetched from a pillow house.

I do think that Serra has a drop of Targ blood in her, but I think it's from a bastard line descending from Princess Saera Targaryen, daughter of Jahaerys I and Alysanne. Like her elder sister Maegelle she was promised to the faith, but unlike Maegelle who became a Septa and died from grescale contracted by nursing children with greyscale (remember Serra died of the grey plague, a variation of greyscale), Saera fled her motherhouse while still a novice, across the Narrow Sea. At the end of his life, Jahaerys only wanted to be served by 15 year old Alicent Hightower who he mistook for Saera (suggesting that Princess Saera was his favourite daughter) returned from Essos. Saera fled to Lys and was there for a while, but eventually she traveled on to Volantis where she became the proprietor of a pillow house (brothel). The world book gives no explanation for Seara's reason to flee, other than that she was not as devout as Maegelle. But what reason could a princess who's a favourite of the King of the IT have to risk pirates at the Stepstone and Narrow Sea, when she already has an older sister who became a septa? Her younger sister Gael was Alysanne's favourite, who disappeared from the Red Keep, but turned out to have drowned herself in the Blackwater, because a singer seduced and abandoned her and left her with child. I think Saera was seduced and pregnant too, and that's why she fled, because a novice of the Faith pregnant with a bastard and princess of the King was just too big a scandal in her eyes to turn for help with her parents. I think she birthed that child in Lys, and then left the child there while moving on to Volantis. Serra is her descendant.

Lys worships a love goddess and it was created as a pleasure retreat for the dragonlords of Valyria. Hence "lovemaking" is something "holy" and why they're said to be so good at it. The nobles there find pure blood very important. And the slave owners breed (bed)slaves for beauty to make the most beautiful courtesans and bedslaves. Meanwhile even commoners still feature the traits of Valyrians: silver-golden hair and blue to purple eyes.

I don't think either Doreah or the "girl" have Targ blood. I think they are just what Illyrio says they are - skilled pretty bedslaves from Lys. And the reason for it, is because neither Illyrio nor George want to make it too obvious that Serra had Targ blood. For Illyrio it's common to have a bedslave in his service, both for himself as well as extinguished guests (he likes the good life). Meanwhile George wants to create a situation where it doesn't seem obvious that Serra's origin was more than that of the others, certainly in a confrontation with Tyrion who tends to suss out secrets and identities: Ben Plumm, Griff, Young Griff. It would be OOT  or inconsistent for Tyrion to unravel those identities, but not Serra's when she was the sole bedwarmer from Lys that Illyrio ever fetched. So, Illyrio always has a Lyseni bedwarmer at his palace. Of course Serra was the sole one he ever married

[Daemon Blackfyre IV]

I think Illyrio was trying to breed Viserys.

[SeaWitch]

1 hour ago, Daemon Blackfyre IV said:

I think Illyrio was trying to breed Viserys.

...you mean put him to stud? Interesting.  Keeping them around until one or the other proved useful, whilst young Aegon was brought up to speed.  

Do you think they were intended to die with the Dothraki, a written-off investment?

[sweetsunray]

1 hour ago, SeaWitch said:

Do you think they were intended to die with the Dothraki, a written-off investment?

Nope they weren't: see aDwD, Jon Connington I, the Lost Lord.

Quote

 

"Illyrio could not have been expected to know that the girl would choose to remain at Slaver's Bay."

"No more than he knew that the Beggar King would die young, or that Khal Drogo would follow him into the grave. Very little of what the fat man has anticipated has come to pass." Griff slapped the hilt of his longsword with a gloved hand. "I have danced to the fat man's pipes for years, Lemore. What has it availed us? […]”

 

“The plan –“

"Which plan?" said Tristan Rivers. "The fat man's plan? The one that changes every time the moon turns? First Viserys Targaryen was to join us with fifty thousand Dothraki screamers at his back. Then the Beggar King was dead, and it was to be the sister, a pliable young child queen who was on her way to Pentos with three new-hatched dragons. Instead the girl turns up on Slaver's Bay and leaves a string of burning cities in her wake, and the fat man decides we should meet her by Volantis. Now that plan is in ruins as well.

"I have had enough of Illyrio's plans. Robert Baratheon won the Iron Throne without the benefit of dragons. We can do the same. And if I am wrong and the realm does not rise for us, we can always retreat back across the narrow sea, as Bittersteel once did, and others after him." (aDwD, Jon Connington I, The Lost Lord)

 

The plan to have the Dothraki back Viserys in attacking Westeros was genuine. Jon Connington and the Golden Company had been informed by Illyrio to expect it. When Illyrio tried to persuade Viserys in staying in Pentos and when he wept over the news that he died, Illyrio was truthful.

Why?

Quote

The captain-general looked as if someone had slapped his face. "Has the sun curdled your brains, Flowers? We need the girl. We need the marriage. If Daenerys accepts our princeling and takes him for her consort, the Seven Kingdoms will do the same. Without her, the lords will only mock his claim and brand him a fraud and a pretender.[…]” (aDwD, The Lost Lord)

They needed at least one known and alive Targaryen to convince Westeros that Aegon is a Targaryen as well - initially that was to be Viserys. Illyrio saw little promise in Dany, frail and scared. 

[SeaWitch]

Ah. Still working my way through earlier books.  

[Lord Varys]

On 9.5.2017 at 1:40 PM, Vaedys Targaryen said:

Is it possible that Doreah and the Girl are also similar descendants from either line? Sure, they'd most definately be bastards of bastards, but Illyrio did indeed say that house Blackfyre is still alive in the female line. Could this female line be from these many Lyseni women and girls that Illyrio buys? It is after all not that long ago since Aerion was in Lys and bastards from a Westerosi could be rather easy to track down.

The best idea there is that Lys is just the best place this side of Yunkai to get yourself some good bed slaves. There is no mystery to that. Doreah and the other girl were bought to entertain Viserys (and most likely Illyrio himself), just as Serra might have been one of many poor women with silver-gold hair and purple eyes to conceive a fair-haired boy that could play the role of Rhaegar's son.

6 hours ago, sweetsunray said:

I do think that Serra has a drop of Targ blood in her, but I think it's from a bastard line descending from Princess Saera Targaryen, daughter of Jahaerys I and Alysanne. Like her elder sister Maegelle she was promised to the faith, but unlike Maegelle who became a Septa and died from grescale contracted by nursing children with greyscale (remember Serra died of the grey plague, a variation of greyscale), Saera fled her motherhouse while still a novice, across the Narrow Sea. At the end of his life, Jahaerys only wanted to be served by 15 year old Alicent Hightower who he mistook for Saera (suggesting that Princess Saera was his favourite daughter) returned from Essos. Saera fled to Lys and was there for a while, but eventually she traveled on to Volantis where she became the proprietor of a pillow house (brothel). The world book gives no explanation for Seara's reason to flee, other than that she was not as devout as Maegelle. But what reason could a princess who's a favourite of the King of the IT have to risk pirates at the Stepstone and Narrow Sea, when she already has an older sister who became a septa? Her younger sister Gael was Alysanne's favourite, who disappeared from the Red Keep, but turned out to have drowned herself in the Blackwater, because a singer seduced and abandoned her and left her with child. I think Saera was seduced and pregnant too, and that's why she fled, because a novice of the Faith pregnant with a bastard and princess of the King was just too big a scandal in her eyes to turn for help with her parents. I think she birthed that child in Lys, and then left the child there while moving on to Volantis. Serra is her descendant.

The question why Saera left the motherhouse and her home is interesting, but the best explanation for that is that she might just have decided that she did not want to become a septa or live a cloistered life at her father's court. She certainly could have had some children of her own but the idea that any descendants of her during the time of the series would remember that is very far-fetched.

Jaehaerys I didn't mistake Alicent only for Saera, by the way. Once he thought she was Saera, at other times he confused her with other daughters.

[sweetsunray]

35 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

Jaehaerys I didn't mistake Alicent only for Saera, by the way. Once he thought she was Saera, at other times he confused her with other daughters.

First the Rogue Prince says Jaehaerys confused her with his daughters, but towards the end he was "convinced" she was Saera.

[sweetsunray]

54 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

She certainly could have had some children of her own but the idea that any descendants of her during the time of the series would remember that is very far-fetched.

When people breed dogs, horses and in this case bedslaves for beauty they keep a pedigree.

There are only 3 characters with a name similar to that of Saera Targaryen: Serra and Sarra Frey, Walder Frey's twin granddaughters by Ryman, and Serra of Lys. The World book could have used any sort of name for Saera Targaryen, could have had her go straight for Volantis and not have Maegelle of Gael's story surrounding Saera's. We've got Saera/Serra, Lys, pillow house, and a greyscale/grey plague link. And just so we wouldn't forget about Saera, she's named in the Rogue Prince, published 4 years later aDwD, and a year later after tWoIaF (that mentions her for the first time). Oh and we have a septa who once delivered a child teaching Aegon as a literary reminder that devout novices or septas can get with child occassionally too.

Saera Targaryen is just a generation prior to the Plumm story ending with Ben Plumm and his 2 drops of Targ blood, and he knows his ancestry story (half at least). I think it more likely that George incorporates various Targ descendants in the non obvious Targ manner, than the Blackfyre one.

[Lord Varys]

Just now, sweetsunray said:

First the Rogue Prince says Jaehaerys confused her with his daughters, but towards the end he was "convinced" she was Saera.

I know. That's what I meant. The idea that Saera was Jaehaerys' favorite daughter is pretty far-fetched. It is strange that he would have sent his favorite against her wishes to a motherhouse.

In fact, it is also somewhat strange that neither Maegelle nor Saera were married to any of his grandchildren. One assumes the reason for that is that finding a proper bride for Viserys only became a rather important thing in the wake of Aemon's early death. And by that time Maegelle was already a septa and Saera gone.

16 minutes ago, sweetsunray said:

When people breed dogs, horses and in this case bedslaves for beauty they keep a pedigree.

That might be the case, but why on earth should the owners of those brothels inform their slaves about their pedigree? Or why should a man like Illyrio want to hook up with a whore who had one Targaryen ancestor among her many other descendants?

16 minutes ago, sweetsunray said:

There are only 3 characters with a name similar to that of Saera Targaryen: Serra and Sarra Frey, Walder Frey's twin granddaughters by Ryman, and Serra of Lys. The World book could have used any sort of name for Saera Targaryen, could have had her go straight for Volantis and not have Maegelle of Gael's story surrounding Saera's. We've got Saera/Serra, Lys, pillow house, and a greyscale/grey plague link. And just so we wouldn't forget about Saera, she's named in the Rogue Prince, published 4 years later aDwD, and a year later after tWoIaF (that mentions her for the first time).

There is no reason to assume that this is all intentional, and connected to the whore Serra. Granted, the similarity with the names might be intentional, but not all Targaryens who share the same (or a similar) name are descendant from each other. Just look at all the Aegons, Aemons, Viserys', etc.

And a Blackfyre descendant could also have some sort of a Valyrian name.

16 minutes ago, sweetsunray said:

Saera Targaryen is just a generation prior to the Plumm story ending with Ben Plumm and his 2 drops of Targ blood, and he knows his ancestry story (half at least). I think it more likely that George incorporates various Targ descendants in the non obvious Targ manner, than the Blackfyre one.

Saera lived at least seventy years prior to Elaena and Viserys Plumm, perhaps even earlier, depending when Saera was born. And we have no idea how long she lived in Lys.

[sweetsunray]

6 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

I know. That's what I meant. The idea that Saera was Jaehaerys' favorite daughter is pretty far-fetched. It is strange that he would have sent his favorite against her wishes to a motherhouse.

Not if he was convinced that Alicent was Shaera and by then only wanted her to serve him. Perhaps, she looked up to Maegelle when young, and wanted to initially, but then hormones hit. Teens do change their mind. Or they get into trouble and fear their parent would never understand, and run away, or jump in the Blackwater.

LIkewise, it is quite comparable to Hoster Tully having Lysa on his mind, wanting to make amends, feeling guilty.

Of course it isn't far-fetched. It's pretty much suggested that while Alysanne was heartbroken over Gael, clearly Jaehaerys was heartbroken over Saera.

6 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

That might be the case, but why on earth should the owners of those brothels inform their slaves about their pedigree? Or why should a man like Illyrio want to hook up with a whore who had one Targaryen ancestor among her many other descendants?

Why shouldn't they if they are meant to please a certain king or prince or archon or magister. Bella knows her story of conception, and sheno doubt will tell her child, etc. Barra's mother is proud of her daughter being Robert's child. If she had lived, she would have reminded Barra often enough, who'd tell her child.

And the last question is ridiculous. Why shouldn't a man like Illyrio want a whore with Targaryen ancestry? Illyrio has a convo about wanting to fuck a certain Tagaryen princess. Illyrio is a bit of a kinky Targophile.

 

6 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

but not all Targaryens who share the same (or a similar) name are descendant from each other. Just look at all the Aegons, Aemons, Viserys', etc

But still kin.

Saera however is a name that appears only once in the Targ family tree, which can be simplified to either sarra or serra. And that only happens withthe Frey twins and a whore in Lys.

6 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

And we have no idea how long she lived in Lys

No we don't. Long enough to deserve a mention. Not long enough to say she lived in Lys for years.

6 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

Saera lived at least seventy years prior to Elaena and Viserys Plumm, perhaps even earlier, depending when Saera was born.

If Jaehaerys was convinced a 15 year old Alicent was Shaera, that would be about the age she had when she fled. She was born somewhere between 61-82 AC, and it's likely to be closer to 82 AC than 61. Ossifer Plumm died in 176 AC, and he was old already. Elaena was born in 150 AC. Sure, Ossifer wasn't the dad, but he was certainly a man of Saera's time. 70 years is 2-3 generations later. Though there are more Targ generations in between.

As for 'no reason to assume it's deliberate'. Well, actually there is. We have only 1 Saera, and only 2 Serra's from how many names? One of those Serra's was fetched from a "pillow house" in Lys, while Saera stayed in Lys for a while but not permanently, then moved on to Volantis to become the owner of a "pillow house". Saera/Serra, 2 x Lys, 2 x Pillow House (and not the most common word used in the books either). How many characters do we know by name who have had greyscale or a variant, let alone die from it. Aside from JonCon and Shyreen there's only Maegelle and Serra, who are the sole named characters who both died from it. As a variant, grey plague could be said to be the sister or cousin version of greyscale. And how many septas and novices do we know by name who fled/had a child. Yes, sure, there are more than the named ones. But George only names a few - Saera and Lemore. One rarity can be a coincidence. This many word hits on people we have little more than 2 paragraphs on (including Saera's closest sisters), not coincidence anymore. 

[Lord Varys]

3 hours ago, sweetsunray said:

Not if he was convinced that Alicent was Shaera and by then only wanted her to serve him. Perhaps, she looked up to Maegelle when young, and wanted to initially, but then hormones hit. Teens do change their mind. Or they get into trouble and fear their parent would never understand, and run away, or jump in the Blackwater.

The impression I get is that Jaehaerys I realized that he and Alysanne had produced far too many children, and that they better ensure that some of them don't end up having sons of their own. That's why Vaegon had to go to the Citadel, and Maegelle and Saera to the Faith. The idea that they actually asked their children's opinion when they decided their future is not all that likely. Daeron II also didn't ask Aemon whether he wanted to be a maester.

3 hours ago, sweetsunray said:

LIkewise, it is quite comparable to Hoster Tully having Lysa on his mind, wanting to make amends, feeling guilty.

Not really. Hoster actually had something to apologize for. He wanted to talk to Lysa. Jaehaerys just confused a young girl with his daughters, one of which was Saera. That happens to old and senile men rather often without them having a reason to do so.

In fact, it is quite likely that Jaehaerys I outlived all his children.

3 hours ago, sweetsunray said:

Of course it isn't far-fetched. It's pretty much suggested that while Alysanne was heartbroken over Gael, clearly Jaehaerys was heartbroken over Saera.

No, Jaehaerys I's was heartbroken over the deaths of Alysanne and Baelon (and Gael, too, perhaps). Nothing indicates that he much thought about Saera who may have been gone for decades by then.

3 hours ago, sweetsunray said:

Why shouldn't they if they are meant to please a certain king or prince or archon or magister. Bella knows her story of conception, and sheno doubt will tell her child, etc. Barra's mother is proud of her daughter being Robert's child. If she had lived, she would have reminded Barra often enough, who'd tell her child.

Mya and Gendry don't know, apparently. And even legitimate descendants like Brown Ben Plumm don't know who exactly their famous ancestor was. That makes it exceedingly unlikely that Saera's great-grandchildren would know who their great-grandmother was. The Lyseni breed their prostitutes for beauty, not nobility of blood.

3 hours ago, sweetsunray said:

And the last question is ridiculous. Why shouldn't a man like Illyrio want a whore with Targaryen ancestry? Illyrio has a convo about wanting to fuck a certain Tagaryen princess. Illyrio is a bit of a kinky Targophile.

If this is truly so - and Serra was not just one of many poor woman with Valyrian looks he fucked to create a fake Targaryen prince - then Illyrio certainly would have had access to Targaryen descendants that were, well, more recent. Some Blackfyre descendants, perhaps, or Targaryen bastards and their descendants from the third and not the first century.

3 hours ago, sweetsunray said:

Saera however is a name that appears only once in the Targ family tree, which can be simplified to either sarra or serra. And that only happens withthe Frey twins and a whore in Lys.

There are actually two other variations of that name in the family tree with Queen Shaera and Rhaella's stillborn daughter Shaena. Who knows, perhaps Jaehaerys II had a bastard daughter Serra once?

3 hours ago, sweetsunray said:

If Jaehaerys was convinced a 15 year old Alicent was Shaera, that would be about the age she had when she fled. She was born somewhere between 61-82 AC, and it's likely to be closer to 82 AC than 61. Ossifer Plumm died in 176 AC, and he was old already. Elaena was born in 150 AC. Sure, Ossifer wasn't the dad, but he was certainly a man of Saera's time. 70 years is 2-3 generations later. Though there are more Targ generations in between.

Jaehaerys I was senile when he confused Alicent with his daughters, including Saera. That doesn't mean the fact that he confused her points to something else, like Saera's age when she left, or anything, really. We are talking about an old man who is losing his wits.

3 hours ago, sweetsunray said:

As for 'no reason to assume it's deliberate'. Well, actually there is. We have only 1 Saera, and only 2 Serra's from how many names? One of those Serra's was fetched from a "pillow house" in Lys, while Saera stayed in Lys for a while but not permanently, then moved on to Volantis to become the owner of a "pillow house". Saera/Serra, 2 x Lys, 2 x Pillow House (and not the most common word used in the books either). How many characters do we know by name who have had greyscale or a variant, let alone die from it. Aside from JonCon and Shyreen there's only Maegelle and Serra, who are the sole named characters who both died from it. As a variant, grey plague could be said to be the sister or cousin version of greyscale. And how many septas and novices do we know by name who fled/had a child. Yes, sure, there are more than the named ones. But George only names a few - Saera and Lemore. One rarity can be a coincidence. This many word hits on people we have little more than 2 paragraphs on (including Saera's closest sisters), not coincidence anymore. 

I'm not denying that there are parallels. But those parallels don't allow us to actually claim that Serra is a descendant of Saera.

The point of Maegelle catching and dying of greyscale is most likely included to put those ridiculous theories of certain readers to rest that the Targaryens don't catch diseases. If Maegelle could die of greyscale, Dany, Aegon, Jon, and Tyrion can, too.

Harlon Greyjoy also was dying of greyscale when Euron killed him, by the way. But I assume you don't believe that this is a hint that Jon Connington is also a descendant of Quellon Greyjoy, right?

[Danelle]

12 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

The best idea there is that Lys is just the best place this side of Yunkai to get yourself some good bed slaves. There is no mystery to that. Doreah and the other girl were bought to entertain Viserys (and most likely Illyrio himself), just as Serra might have been one of many poor women with silver-gold hair and purple eyes to conceive a fair-haired boy that could play the role of Rhaegar's son.

 

I agree. The Targaryen look might be rare in Westeros but not so much in Essos.

According to the WOIAF there are many descendants of Valyria who still live in Lys.

Quote

. To this day, Lys remains "a feast for the senses, a balm for the soul." Its pillow houses are famed through all the world, and sunsets here are said to be more beautiful than anywhere else on earth. The Lyseni themselves are beautiful as well, for here more than anywhere else in the known world the old Valyrian bloodlines still run strong.

 I think that what Doreah and the Girl have in common with the Targaryens is that they are both descended from Valyria and they have a similar look. Lysono, Serenei, and Larra Logare also have the Targaryen look but that does make them Targaryen (although the last two did marry Targaryens).

[Castellan]

12 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

The best idea there is that Lys is just the best place this side of Yunkai to get yourself some good bed slaves. There is no mystery to that. Doreah and the other girl were bought to entertain Viserys (and most likely Illyrio himself), just as Serra might have been one of many poor women with silver-gold hair and purple eyes to conceive a fair-haired boy that could play the role of Rhaegar's son.

 

Yes, but if it is not simply a cold blooded plot to get control of Westeros for financial gain and power, but the case that Illyrio is a Blackfyre descendent too - his physical description both in youth and in bloated middle age, is as exact match for Aegon IV - then he may have searched out Serra as someone else he believed to have Blackfyre lineage, to bear his child. It stands to reason that an exiled Princess who ran a brothel is going to be claimed as an ancestor by many a resident of Lysene brothels, but that doesn't mean it can't be true or at least believable to Illyrio and Varys. 

Those who have put this theory about in the forum usually add the idea that Varys is from Lys, a Blackfyre of some kind and was castrated because of that, and has planned his revenge ever since. And/or that Serra was his sister.

This is the idea anyway that is put in many threads, what appeals to me in it is it gives Varys emotional motives rather than simply greed or abstract justice (which is the reason he gives Kevan). 

 

[Lord Varys]

11 minutes ago, Danelle said:

I agree. The Targaryen look might be rare in Westeros but not so much in Essos.

According to the WOIAF there are many descendants of Valyria who still live in Lys.

 I think that what Doreah and the Girl have in common with the Targaryens is that they are both descended from Valyria and they have a similar look. Lysono, Serenei, and Larra Logare also have the Targaryen look but that does make them Targaryen (although the last two did marry Targaryens).

Lys seems to be a very special place in relation to the Valyrian blood. Unlike Volantis (where only the Old Blood would be pure-blooded Valyrians) Lys does not only have a ruling nobility descended from the dragonlords of old but also a lot of commoners and slaves with Valyrian ancestry (due to the fact that the dragonlords of old would have fathered a lot of illegitimate children over there). The nobles might still practice the Valyrian incest, and the slaves are bred for their looks by mating them with other people with Valyrian features, possibly also going with the incest thing. And as bed slaves are freed and marry some commoners the Valyrian looks would spread far and wide through the city.

That makes it very unlikely the Lyseni actually care about the noble pedigree of their slaves instead of just their looks. If Saera had had some children who ended up in a pillow house they would have been used as breed mares if they had the right Valyrian looks. Many of those slaves are also very likely to be the by-blows and bastards of Lysene nobility. The nobles might care about the ancestry of their spouses but not in case of their mistresses and bastards.

In that sense it is pretty unlikely that some Targaryen princess visiting Lys over two hundred years ago is remembered by her hypothetical descendants. It is much more likely that Illyrio might have been able to find some Blackfyre descendants through the female line or some descendants of a hypothetical bastard of Aerion's.

But the idea that Illyrio actually ended up fathering a proper Aegon copy on whore with silver-gold hair and purple eyes who also is actually a Targaryen descendant is not all that likely. The Aegon plan was made only after the Sack, and if Aegon is fake then Illyrio would fucked quite a few Lysene whores to ensure that he got a male child with the proper features. He could not risk to impregnate only one woman and then try again with her if he got a black-haired boy or a girl. Serra would have been the one who gave him a son with the looks he wanted, and he then married her to ensure that Aegon would be seen as his legitimate son and heir of his Pentoshi estates. If Illyrio died early or if the plan had to be scrapped for some reason Aegon certainly should not end up on the streets.

[Lord Varys]

Just now, Castellan said:

Yes, but if it is not simply a cold blooded plot to get control of Westeros for financial gain and power, but the case that Illyrio is a Blackfyre descendent too - his physical description both in youth and in bloated middle age, is as exact match for Aegon IV - then he may have searched out Serra as someone else he believed to have Blackfyre lineage, to bear his child. It stands to reason that an exiled Princess who ran a brothel is going to be claimed as an ancestor by many a resident of Lysene brothels, but that doesn't mean it can't be true or at least believable to Illyrio and Varys. 

Those who have put this theory about in the forum usually add the idea that Varys is from Lys, a Blackfyre of some kind and was castrated because of that, and has planned his revenge ever since. And/or that Serra was his sister.

This is the idea anyway that is put in many threads, what appeals to me in it is it gives Varys emotional motives rather than simply greed or abstract justice (which is the reason he gives Kevan). 

I know all that, and I've been saying that Varys has to be a Targaryen or Blackfyre (bastard) descendant for years to explain why he should give so much as a shit about Westeros. But it is enough to believe Varys has such a connection, there is no reason to believe Serra has any such connection. However, Varys can only be a Blackfyre bastard or the son of a Blackfyre mother. He cannot be a Blackfyre himself. If he was, then House Blackfyre would not be extinct in the male line while Varys yet lives.

In fact, I think Illyrio is the descendant of both Daemon Blackfyre (through his eldest daughter Calla) and Bittersteel. The idea is that Bittersteel and Calla eventually married and had at least one daughter who ended up marrying some guy who also had at least one daughter who married another man, all the way down to this Illyrio Mopatis chap. If there are only women between Bittersteel/Calla and Illyrio it sort of makes sense why nobody knows that Illyrio Mopatis is a Blackfyre through the female line. If Illyrio had a Blackfyre mother or grandmother it would be much more difficult to believe that nobody would have told Aerys that the best buddy of his Varys chap was a Blackfyre descendant, nor that nobody would have told Viserys III that his host Illyrio was a Blackfyre descendant (or Robert that a Blackfyre guy was hosting the Targaryens).

As I've said above the Aegon plan would have made after the Sack, and considering that Aegon was over a year old when he died Illyrio would have been forced to father his Aegon very quickly, most likely using more than one woman to create the right child. Not every child of a blond guy and a woman with Valyrian features will closely resemble Prince Rhaegar's dead son. And it was of paramount importance that the child look like Rhaegar's son.

The chance that he just had a lucky shot with that Serra woman who also happens to be of a prominent bloodline makes little sense. Even more so in light of the fact that it is Illyrio not his wife who has made this contract written in blood with Myles Toyne.

[sweetsunray]

Personally I think Varys is likely a Brightflame descendant, not a Blackfyre. We've got nothing about him that even relates to Tyrosh, which is where the Blackfyre descendants would be. Even those that are not in Tyrosh would have pointers to Tyrosh. Varys has none: only Lys (once mentioned by Pycelle, and his purple dress that matches Lysono Maar), and Myr (murky).

I agree that Serra is not his sister, for the reason that Varys points out. Serra and Aegon only came into view long after Varys was already hired by Aerys II. Based on the vague mention of "untrustworthy whispers and spies" we can place Aerys having hired Varys since 273 AC, which would fit with lllyrio having been wed to the cousin to the Prince of Pentos by the time Aerys learns of Varys's talents. At any regard, despite Illyrio being rich and welcomed into the political class of Pentos and Varys being famous enough with his "mice" for Aerys to learn about him and thus already having a vast network of spies, Serra certainly is not part of their ensemble. If Varys is revenge plotting and it's partly about his sister, then why the hell would he leave her to grow up in Lys in a pillow house when he has money and spies at his disposal? That makes no sense to me. It only makes sense if Varys wasn't looking a Serra at all.

Now, in 278 AC Steffon is sent on a mission to find a suitable bride from an Old Blood line from Volantis. But the way Volantis defines Old Blood ain't the same as Lys does - In Volantis it only means being able to prove you're a descendant from Old Valyria. In Lys it's more Pure Blood and has to do with Valyrian looks. The children of the Prince of Dragonflies can prove being descendants of Old Valyria. Steffon was sent on a "fool's errand" to Volantis, because he was not likely going to find an Old Blood bride there that would also be pure blooded, let alone sport the Valyrian looks. For that, Steffon should have been sent to Lys. But Aerys is a snob who doesn't get the difference, and affiliates himself with Volantene snobbery. Guess what type of information Steffon likely would have stumbled on - he discovered Saera Taragaryen's fate. She was the proprietor of a famous pillow house in Volantis. Because quite frankly, we don't know Maester Yandel's source for Saera's fate. Jaehaerys certainly didn't seem to know where his daughter Saera disappeared to in Essos exactly. He only knew she fled across the Narrow Sea. Which was a dangerous voyage, as pirates basically ruled the Narrow Sea and the Stepstones and were such a plague that eventually in 98 AC Tyrosh, Lys and Myr formed a political Triarch alliance to get rid of them (while they always warred before, and would again later).

In the books we only learn of the letter he sent to Storm's End to Cressen, about Patchface, but surely Steffon sent a letter to the Red Keep as well, where I suspect he included a report about Saera Targaryen's fate and the mention that before she came to Volantis she stayed in Lys a while. Aerys II, the snob, wouldn't have cared about this. But Varys and Illyrio would. And 278 AC is a far better timing for them to snoop around Lyseni pillow houses, and the first hatching of a plan to father a substitution. They find a Serra with the proper looks (which indeed is common in Lys, even commoners sport the Valyrian looks), and just as Bella of the Peach and Ben Plum have pretty tales to tell, so does Serra.

As for Illyrio, despite the looks of his youth, the man finds sigils and stuff funny and doesn't really seem to understand "dragons" or "the blood of dragons". He certainly has nothing against Targs either, calling Viserys "the king" even 2 years after he died to Tyrion, and definitely wanted him to gain the Dothraki army, join with the GC and conquer the IT. Even if he wanted to use him to get Aegon recognized as a legitimate Targaryen, he didn't want him to die young. Illyrio is more of a Targophile rather than a Targ descendant who prides himself on his heritage, let alone a Blackfyre who has a bone to pick with Targs. And even the Golden Company doesn't care about Blackfyre or Targ distinction anymore. Some just want to die home, others want to live and grow old in a castle, and others just want to kill some Fossoways. 

 

[Lord Varys]

1 hour ago, sweetsunray said:

Personally I think Varys is likely a Brightflame descendant, not a Blackfyre. We've got nothing about him that even relates to Tyrosh, which is where the Blackfyre descendants would be. Even those that are not in Tyrosh would have pointers to Tyrosh. Varys has none: only Lys (once mentioned by Pycelle, and his purple dress that matches Lysono Maar), and Myr (murky).

There is no reason to assume that Blackfyres were glued to Tyrosh or were still living there after the Fourth Blackfyre Rebellion (they weren't during the War of the Ninepenny Kings). It is very likely that the Tyroshi were no longer suffering them there after Rohanne died. There is also no reason to believe that all the Blackfyres were stuck to that place. Those riding with Bittersteel in the Golden Company would have been everywhere and nowhere from the days the company was founded.

There are no Brightflames. That is a silly term. Aerion had one son, Prince Maegor, and if he had children of his own Varys would have to be his son, a ridiculous notion if we assume he is a legitimate child because Varys wouldn't have been able to keep the fact that he was Maegor's son a secret. Aegon V should know what happened to his nephew, whom he married, whether he had children, etc.

Varys being descended from some of Aerion's hypothetical bastards is pretty much as much of a non-explanation as the Saera-Serra idea. Varys' ancestry is likely connected somehow to his motivation to be interested in Westeros. As Aerion's great-great-grandson he would have as much a connection to Westeros as Brown Ben Plumm does - which means none.

1 hour ago, sweetsunray said:

Based on the vague mention of "untrustworthy whispers and spies" we can place Aerys having hired Varys since 273 AC, which would fit with lllyrio having been wed to the cousin to the Prince of Pentos by the time Aerys learns of Varys's talents.

That doesn't make a lot of sense. Varys is only mentioned as being present at KL after Duskendale, and we do know that certain people believe the rot in Aerys' reign began with him, suggesting that Varys must have been present pretty late because Aerys' reign was pretty good while Tywin was still Hand.

Every king seems to have a Master of Whisperers. In the early 270s Varys would have employed another man in the capacity, and may have originally bought rumors and whispers from freelancers, etc. He was growing ever more paranoid, after all. Varys is the endpoint of all that, not the beginning. He is a foreign eunuch whom Aerys imports because he is an outsider with no agenda in Westeros.

Varys and Illyrio seem to be only a few years older than Rhaegar. They are likely born in the late 250s. Neither of them is described as old. They could be around fifty but not much older. Illyrio is sixteen when that statue of his was made, and back then he was still a bravo. Let's say he and Varys teamed up when they were both about seventeen. Then they need at least five years to rise to the top of Pentoshi society, and Illyrio needs a little bit more to become really 'respectable' enough to be able to marry a cousin of the Prince of Pentos.

1 hour ago, sweetsunray said:

At any regard, despite Illyrio being rich and welcomed into the political class of Pentos and Varys being famous enough with his "mice" for Aerys to learn about him and thus already having a vast network of spies, Serra certainly is not part of their ensemble. If Varys is revenge plotting and it's partly about his sister, then why the hell would he leave her to grow up in Lys in a pillow house when he has money and spies at his disposal? That makes no sense to me. It only makes sense if Varys wasn't looking a Serra at all.

The idea usually is that they were separated and Varys only found her later on, I guess. That is not impossible but the whole idea is just very unlikely.

1 hour ago, sweetsunray said:

Now, in 278 AC Steffon is sent on a mission to find a suitable bride from an Old Blood line from Volantis. But the way Volantis defines Old Blood ain't the same as Lys does - In Volantis it only means being able to prove you're a descendant from Old Valyria. In Lys it's more Pure Blood and has to do with Valyrian looks. The children of the Prince of Dragonflies can prove being descendants of Old Valyria.

Sorry, that's just crap. The blood of Valyria runs stronger in Lys than in does in Volantis but that just means that there are more Valyrian-looking people in Lys than there are in Volantis, especially among the commoners and slaves. The Old Blood of Volantis are descended from the cousins and kin of the dragonlords of Valyria, and while we don't know whether they continue the incest marriage policy (I expect they do) they clearly marry only among themselves. They should all have as prominent Valyrian features as the Targaryens of Westeros, and most likely much more ancient and prestigious names. Keep in mind that the Targaryens were a minor dragonlord family while many families of the Old Blood might bear the names of more prominent and powerful dragonlord houses.

1 hour ago, sweetsunray said:

Steffon was sent on a "fool's errand" to Volantis, because he was not likely going to find an Old Blood bride there that would also be pure blooded, let alone sport the Valyrian looks. For that, Steffon should have been sent to Lys. But Aerys is a snob who doesn't get the difference, and affiliates himself with Volantene snobbery.

I'm pretty sure Aerys Targaryen had a much more complete and detailed picture of Volantis and Lys than you or I.

1 hour ago, sweetsunray said:

Guess what type of information Steffon likely would have stumbled on - he discovered Saera Taragaryen's fate. She was the proprietor of a famous pillow house in Volantis. Because quite frankly, we don't know Maester Yandel's source for Saera's fate. Jaehaerys certainly didn't seem to know where his daughter Saera disappeared to in Essos exactly. He only knew she fled across the Narrow Sea. Which was a dangerous voyage, as pirates basically ruled the Narrow Sea and the Stepstones and were such a plague that eventually in 98 AC Tyrosh, Lys and Myr formed a political Triarch alliance to get rid of them (while they always warred before, and would again later).

Jaehaerys I could very well have known where the hell Princess Saera was. She could have written letters or Westerosi sailors could have brought news from her. He just didn't recall that in his senility. The important point is that she wasn't there, not that he didn't know where she was. Are you really basing theories and the demented ramblings of some senile man?

And the idea that Steffon Baratheon (or anyone living in his day and age) gave a shit about a long-dead Targaryen princess makes little sense. Nothing indicates Steffon had a thing for history or was obsessed with the younger children of Jaehaerys I.

1 hour ago, sweetsunray said:

In the books we only learn of the letter he sent to Storm's End to Cressen, about Patchface, but surely Steffon sent a letter to the Red Keep as well, where I suspect he included a report about Saera Targaryen's fate and the mention that before she came to Volantis she stayed in Lys a while. Aerys II, the snob, wouldn't have cared about this. But Varys and Illyrio would. And 278 AC is a far better timing for them to snoop around Lyseni pillow houses, and the first hatching of a plan to father a substitution. They find a Serra with the proper looks (which indeed is common in Lys, even commoners sport the Valyrian looks), and just as Bella of the Peach and Ben Plum have pretty tales to tell, so does Serra.

Since we don't even know whether Varys was already in KL at that time there is no reason to believe this. Nor is there any reason to believe that Steffon would waste precious paper to tell a stupid tale about a princess turned brothel keeper in an official letter to his king.

And why on earth would Varys and Illyrio care to look for some whore in 278 AC? Rhaegar wasn't even married yet, nor did he have any children.

1 hour ago, sweetsunray said:

As for Illyrio, despite the looks of his youth, the man finds sigils and stuff funny and doesn't really seem to understand "dragons" or "the blood of dragons". He certainly has nothing against Targs either, calling Viserys "the king" even 2 years after he died to Tyrion, and definitely wanted him to gain the Dothraki army, join with the GC and conquer the IT. Even if he wanted to use him to get Aegon recognized as a legitimate Targaryen, he didn't want him to die young. Illyrio is more of a Targophile rather than a Targ descendant who prides himself on his heritage, let alone a Blackfyre who has a bone to pick with Targs. And even the Golden Company doesn't care about Blackfyre or Targ distinction anymore. Some just want to die home, others want to live and grow old in a castle, and others just want to kill some Fossoways. 

Illyrio is definitely a child of Essos who doesn't give all that much on those barbaric customs of Westeros. However, the man isn't exactly honest with the people he is talking to. Him referring to Viserys and Dany as 'king and princess/queen' doesn't mean all that much.

And whether Tristan Rivers actually knows what Illyrio's original plans for Viserys III and the Dothraki army were is completely unclear. I honestly doubt that this chap is Illyrio's best buddy who was privy to his plans. Illyrio would have told Strickland some stuff when he was closing the deal with Viserys and Drogo (so that the Golden Company is ready when needed) but whether Rivers actually understood what he said is completely unclear.

[LordToo-Fat-to-Sit-a-Horse]

Never liked much the theory of Varys being secretly a woman. I never thought it added anything useful to the plot.

But lately i have changed my mind to a particular scenario. Varys = Serra kind of solves a number of issues presented in this thread.

granted it lacks much more evidence to be credible. But still, i think it would be an awesome twist (if Aegon was indeed son of illyrio and "serra")

 

[sweetsunray]

5 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

There is no reason to assume that Blackfyres were glued to Tyrosh or were still living there after the Fourth Blackfyre Rebellion (they weren't during the War of the Ninepenny Kings). It is very likely that the Tyroshi were no longer suffering them there after Rohanne died. There is also no reason to believe that all the Blackfyres were stuck to that place. Those riding with Bittersteel in the Golden Company would have been everywhere and nowhere from the days the company was founded.

An argument full of misdirection.

1. The male line's dead. Female line isn't. There's no reason to think Blackfyre's daughters and their children went anywhere else than Tyrosh, let alone sold to Lys as bedslaves or other type of slaves.
2. Even if a grandson or great grandson via Blackfyre's daughters had a by blow in a pillow house of Lys, while spending his Golden Company earnings there, George would still put in Tyroshy-tie hints in there.
3. The War of the 9 penny kings was the war where the last Blackfyre of the male line, who was commander of the sellsword Golden Company fought and died. What the hell has that got anything to do the female line?
4. You ar confusing hints for a not-yet-proclaimed possible Blackfyre with thos who're long dead and whose tales are already told.

5 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

There are no Brightflames. That is a silly term. Aerion had one son, Prince Maegor, and if he had children of his own Varys would have to be his son, a ridiculous notion if we assume he is a legitimate child because Varys wouldn't have been able to keep the fact that he was Maegor's son a secret. Aegon V should know what happened to his nephew, whom he married, whether he had children, etc.

Where did I say there were "Brightflames". I said a possible Brightflame descendant. Aerion was sent into exile to Lys for a while, and it has been admitted, though not confirmed, that he might have fathered bastards during that time.

5 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

Varys' ancestry is likely connected somehow to his motivation to be interested in Westeros.

Varys wasn't interested in Westeros for years. It was Aerys who was interested in him and invited him over.

 

5 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

Sorry, that's just crap. The blood of Valyria runs stronger in Lys than in does in Volantis but that just means that there are more Valyrian-looking people in Lys than there are in Volantis, especially among the commoners and slaves. The Old Blood of Volantis are descended from the cousins and kin of the dragonlords of Valyria, and while we don't know whether they continue the incest marriage policy (I expect they do) they clearly marry only among themselves. They should all have as prominent Valyrian features as the Targaryens of Westeros, and most likely much more ancient and prestigious names. Keep in mind that the Targaryens were a minor dragonlord family while many families of the Old Blood might bear the names of more prominent and powerful dragonlord houses.

Nope read tWoIaF and its wording. Volantis - "Old Blood", descendants, NOT "pure blood". Find me a quote that says the Old Blood of Volantis are descendent from the cousins and kin of the dragonlords of Valyria. You won't find it. I know. I've looked.

Volantis was a military outpost, not a dragonlord outpost. Dragonlords only went there once in a while for parlays. They went to Lys for the leisure times. Also Valyrians aren't all dragonlord families either.

5 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

I'm pretty sure Aerys Targaryen had a much more complete and detailed picture of Volantis and Lys than you or I.

Doubtful. If he had even a clearer picture of Essos, he would have sent Steffon for Lys first. Steffon found no suitable bride after all in Volantis, did he? Or did you read some other book than I have? 

5 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

Jaehaerys I could very well have known where the hell Princess Saera was. She could have written letters or Westerosi sailors could have brought news from her. He just didn't recall that in his senility. The important point is that she wasn't there, not that he didn't know where she was. Are you really basing theories and the demented ramblings of some senile man?

Oh, right. "Hi, daddy! Sorry, that I ran away, but no need to worry over me now. I've become the owner of a pleasure house in Voantis. Love you always, Saera."

No, I don't base theories on this alone. It's just more added information that fits. Never is it said that Jaehaereys believed Saera to have returned from Volantis. It is only said he believed her to come back from across the narrow sea. Which is very vague. It's quite logical that he didn't know where she ended up, especially given the business she ended up owning.

5 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

And the idea that Steffon Baratheon (or anyone living in his day and age) gave a shit about a long-dead Targaryen princess makes little sense. Nothing indicates Steffon had a thing for history or was obsessed with the younger children of Jaehaerys I.

Typical straw man arguments again. You like making those, don't you? Do you really think it works?

Where did I say Steffon gave a shit about a long dead Targaryen princess, that he had a thing for history, or that he was obsessed with the younger children of Jaehaerys? I didn't.

What I'm proposing is that while he inquired and searched for the "suitable bride" for Rhaegar Targaryen in Volantis, it's quite likely that he heard a tale about a Tagaryen princess who ended up owning a brothel. Steffon didn't travel by himself. There would have been liege men with him, who tend to frequent brothels. And such a tale might have ended up in a report, along with his lack of success in his actual quest.

5 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

And why on earth would Varys and Illyrio care to look for some whore in 278 AC? Rhaegar wasn't even married yet, nor did he have any children.

What has one to do with the other? Nothing. Varys and Illyrio could find it interesting to investigate and search for a Targ bastard descendant in Lys, without Rhaegar being married.

5 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

Since we don't even know whether Varys was already in KL at that time there is no reason to believe this.

He was in KL for sure by 280 AC. But it must have been earlier.

Illyrio links Aerys showing interest in hiring Varys to the same time that the Prince of Pentos allowed him to marry his cousin, because by then he was rich enough already. There would be some years between marrying the Prince's cousin, finding Serra, eventually marrying her.

5 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

llyrio is definitely a child of Essos who doesn't give all that much on those barbaric customs of Westeros. However, the man isn't exactly honest with the people he is talking to. Him referring to Viserys and Dany as 'king and princess/queen' doesn't mean all that much.

In light of the information from Jon Connington's chapter provides us it does. It is significant to when he says and to whom. That he speaks of Dany this way to Tyrion when telling him that's whom he's to seek out, but actually accompanying Aegin to her - sure. To still refer to dead Viserys, after he ended up being killed by molten gold poured over his head, 2 years after... hmmm, a bit much. 

 

5 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

And whether Tristan Rivers actually knows what Illyrio's original plans for Viserys III and the Dothraki army were is completely unclear. I honestly doubt that this chap is Illyrio's best buddy who was privy to his plans. Illyrio would have told Strickland some stuff when he was closing the deal with Viserys and Drogo (so that the Golden Company is ready when needed) but whether Rivers actually understood what he said is completely unclear.

Horseshit!

This is the quote...

 

Quote

“The plan –“

"Which plan?" said Tristan Rivers. "The fat man's plan? The one that changes every time the moon turns? First Viserys Targaryen was to join us with fifty thousand Dothraki screamers at his back. Then the Beggar King was dead, and it was to be the sister, a pliable young child queen who was on her way to Pentos with three new-hatched dragons. Instead the girl turns up on Slaver's Bay and leaves a string of burning cities in her wake, and the fat man decides we should meet her by Volantis. Now that plan is in ruins as well.

"I have had enough of Illyrio's plans.

Tristan Rivers knew Aegon was Aegon (just like every other captain present), Strickland knew it. They knew why they were meeting with JonCon there. They know about ships meant to sail Dany with dragons back to Pentos. They know about Khal Drogo, etc.

If you want to believe that Serra is a nobody and that George wrote Seara Targaryen's tidbit of story just to write something without meaning to point at Illyrio's Serra, by all means, believe it, Lord Varys. You're free to make up your mind. It's possible that Serra indeed didn't have a drop of Targ blood in her veins. I'd still maintain though that George wrote Saera Targaryen's story as a suggestive link to her to make us wonder. But if all you have are increasing straw men argument, obfuscation, hyperbole and misdirection then you're not really succeeding in ciritising my proposal but only taking cheap podshots that make the "no!" come across as desperate, rather than founded on logic.