Heresy 198 The Knight of the Laughing Tree

[Sly Wren]

23 minutes ago, Brad Stark said:

Who physically picked the flowers and made the crown is irrelevant.  And these specific type of flowers could have been picked by chance, although that seems unlikely as they came from far away.

Wait--does the text establish this?

Yes, the roses grown in the Winterfell glass gardens. But Ygritte's tale doesn't establish that they ONLY grown in Winterfell. Only that Bael says they are the fairest roses THAT grow in the glass gardens. And that the flowers are rare.

Is there anything that says that the roses don't grow elsewhere in winter--even if rare? And since the tourney was in the false spring, any reason why winter roses wouldn't still be blooming? 

Given the massive expense the tourney is said to have gone to, choosing really rare flowers for the laurel--that sounds like a flashy statement of expense, no? Fitting with the size and show and potential purpose of the tournament.

23 minutes ago, Brad Stark said:

 My suggestion is someone knew the story of Bael the Bard story, that Rhaegar would give them to Lyanna, and that it would insult the Starks, and specifically arranged for these flowers to be used.

Possible. Or--the story could be a marker for the reader. Like the name "Bael-ish." Or Mance's cloak. 

But it would be very interesting if someone from the south knew that tale.

Are you thinking Mance could have come south with the Night's Watch brother and whispered in someone's ear? Something else? 

23 minutes ago, Brad Stark said:

It doesn't matter if Old Nan physically picked the flowers,  what matters is who told her to and why.

If she did so--I'd completely agree. But. . . given that the novels don't establish that the roses only grow in Winterfell, do we have enough to assume this?

Or do you have text to support the idea that the roses only grow in Winterfell?

[Brad Stark]

We don't have any text to support the roses only grow in Winterfell, nor do I think whether they do changes much about potential theories.  I assume since we know they are rare, they weren't chosen simply because they were growing by the hundreds around Harrenhal, and were a special request.   I completely agree they could have been chosen just to be extravagant, but if they were meant to deliberately insult the Starks,  we can infer a lot of interesting things. 

[Melifeather]

6 hours ago, Matthew. said:

That all centers around Pycelle, and I don't think that "Pycelle is loyal to Tywin" is followed naturally by "Tywin framed Rhaegar for Lyanna's abduction." 

Even Pycelle's justifications don't really seem to lend themselves to the conclusion that he conspired to bring civil war and chaos--"For the realm!," he says, pointing out that the Trident decided things, and the remaining Targaryens were not in the realm's interest. Self-serving, but it's also probably true to the way Pycelle views his own actions.

For that matter, I'm not entirely sure that this conspiracy fully aligns with the way I perceive Tywin; certainly, he has been shown to be ruthless to those that threaten his House, and he will participate in political schemes that can advance the Lannister's clout...but does he rise to the level of Littlefinger, where he's so malignantly ambitious that he'd burn the realm down to have his family sit the Iron Throne? 

There are two things I'm keeping in mind here: One, that Tywin was, by all accounts, a Hand under which the Realm prospered. Two...this conversation:

IMO, it's things like this that distinguish Tywin - ruthless as he is - from someone like Littlefinger.
 

Well...maybe. A lot of what I've seen doesn't read to me like clues and foreshadowing, but that doesn't mean my subjective reading experience is "correct." And, of course, there's always the possibility that the series growing from 3 books to 7 books means that GRRM has a plan to heavily back load a lot of the foreshadowing--but if that's the case, I would have preferred to see a lot more conflicting information about Lyanna's abduction up to this point.

To make an analogy, imagine someone tells you a joke, you don't immediately get it, and they have to then explain it; afterward, you may say "Oh, that's funny," but...you're not gonna laugh. The moment has passed.

I think the same "immediacy" holds true for a revelation. The author wants that "Eureka! Of course!" reaction to a revelation, which means the author must straddle the line between giving just enough information, but not too much--which also means that the revelation will be obvious in retrospect, or obvious under scrutiny.

With the information we have to draw upon right now my reaction to 'Lyanna was never abducted by Rhaegar' is less "Of course!" and more "Hmmm...I'm gonna need you to elaborate on that." With at least two books the size of ADWD (or greater) left, though, GRRM still has plenty of time to pull it off.

I agree wholeheartedly with the "eureka" moment, because I felt that when I was revisiting the titled chapters. Shout outs to the gang at the Last Hearth that was taking that journey with me, because they recognized that those chapters are special too, and we set out to figure out "why". It wasn't until I reread The Iron Captain that the "eureka" moment came. The Iron Captain. The Iron Throne. Could it really be a metaphor? The parallels between the Greyjoys and Targaryens are striking and too obvious to ignore. Once you see them, you can't unsee them, and parallels start popping out like when you stare at those 3D pictures just right. There are too many parallels in the books to not have a deliberate purpose. After all, what is it that greenseers do anyway? Surely they can do more than just watch.

 

[Black Crow]

5 hours ago, Sly Wren said:

Wait--does the text establish this?

Yes, the roses grown in the Winterfell glass gardens. But Ygritte's tale doesn't establish that they ONLY grown in Winterfell. Only that Bael says they are the fairest roses THAT grow in the glass gardens. And that the flowers are rare.

Is there anything that says that the roses don't grow elsewhere in winter--even if rare? And since the tourney was in the false spring, any reason why winter roses wouldn't still be blooming? 

Given the massive expense the tourney is said to have gone to, choosing really rare flowers for the laurel--that sounds like a flashy statement of expense, no? Fitting with the size and show and potential purpose of the tournament.

 

Exactly so!

Conversely, as I said earlier all the references to them centre around Lyanna and Jon, not House Stark at large

 

[Brad Stark]

8 hours ago, Feather Crystal said:

I agree wholeheartedly with the "eureka" moment, because I felt that when I was revisiting the titled chapters. Shout outs to the gang at the Last Hearth that was taking that journey with me, because they recognized that those chapters are special too, and we set out to figure out "why". It wasn't until I reread The Iron Captain that the "eureka" moment came. The Iron Captain. The Iron Throne. Could it really be a metaphor? The parallels between the Greyjoys and Targaryens are striking and too obvious to ignore. Once you see them, you can't unsee them, and parallels start popping out like when you stare at those 3D pictures just right. There are too many parallels in the books to not have a deliberate purpose. After all, what is it that greenseers do anyway? Surely they can do more than just watch.

 

The iron throne is recent, the iron islands are ancient.   I don't see how the two names are related, unless GRRM just wants to hint at a connection.  If Euron's blood makes him a greenseer, he has more interesting ancestry than what has been revealed.

I wouldn't be surprised if Brandon the Shipwright is ancestor of House Greyjoy.  But Targaryen ancestry would be surprising,  and outside BR Targaryen ancestry isn't linked to greenseeing.

I do suspect a Targaryen Stark connection,  since these are by far the most important families in the series, and the main plot revolves around something that threw the seasons off.  The connection is probably ancient, around The Long Night or earlier.  And just as likely these families were enemies who's fighting threw off the seasons as them being blood relatives.

[Melifeather]

2 hours ago, Brad Stark said:

The iron throne is recent, the iron islands are ancient.   I don't see how the two names are related, unless GRRM just wants to hint at a connection.  If Euron's blood makes him a greenseer, he has more interesting ancestry than what has been revealed.

I wouldn't be surprised if Brandon the Shipwright is ancestor of House Greyjoy.  But Targaryen ancestry would be surprising,  and outside BR Targaryen ancestry isn't linked to greenseeing.

I do suspect a Targaryen Stark connection,  since these are by far the most important families in the series, and the main plot revolves around something that threw the seasons off.  The connection is probably ancient, around The Long Night or earlier.  And just as likely these families were enemies who's fighting threw off the seasons as them being blood relatives.

I think you may have misunderstood me or I was too vague. IMO the use of the word "iron" in association with the Greyjoys is meant to make the reader draw a connection to the Iron Throne. The Targaryens reigned over Westeros for 300 years, conquering Westeros from their rocky outpost on Dragonstone. The Greyjoys live on a rocky outcropping called Pyke. Both areas are too stony to provide all the resources that their people need. Both families chose to to take what they wanted by force rather than negotiate politically. The Greyjoys are ironmen from the iron islands, and Victarion is the iron captain. The Targaryens conquered the Seven Kingdoms, taking the iron swords of the defeated and hammered them into an iron throne, making the very words Iron Throne" to be the definition of "ruling". Both are associated with the wind. The Greyjoys need wind for their sails, while the Targaryen dragons fly in the sky. 

Asha asks her uncle to lend her his history book so she can read about the last kingsmoot, and Rodrik frowns and says “Archmaester Rigney once wrote that history is a wheel, for the nature of man is fundamentally unchanging. What has happened before will perforce happen again.” Rodrik says he thinks about what Rigney said whenever he thinks about Euron and how much he’s like Urron Greyiron, the man that butchered his way to the top at the last kingsmoot.

Arianne brings up House Toland of Ghost Hill whose sigil is a dragon eating it's own tail. “The dragon is time. It has no beginning and no ending, so all things come round again. Anders Yronwood is Criston Cole reborn."

 

[wolfmaid7]

17 hours ago, Voice said:

Forgive my interjection...

 

Like most people here, I've seen this assumption countless times.

Why?

Why would it "make no sense to give them to Lord Whent's daughter or anyone else"?

 

Someone may have already addressed the holes in this sort of attempt at deduction, and if so, I apologize for revisiting them.

First, I must point out, that there is nothing at all special about giving a woman flowers. It's a thing. It can be as romantic and symbolic as flowers for your one true love, as solemn as flowers upon a grave, or as non-romantic as flowers for a friend in the hospital.

Second, why in seven hells do so many people assume that Lyanna is the only woman who would appreciate blue flowers? That's not logic, that's baseless conjecture.

Third, if the blueness of the flowers themselves was such a dead giveaway as to their destination, why did the smiles wait so long to die? The smiles kept on a-smiling until Rhaegar passed by his own wife, and gave the crown to Lya.

From Ned's POV, it seems that he expected Rhaegar to give the blue flower crown to Elia.

What was quite fathomable to Ned seems to be unfathomable for those who read his words.

 

 

Here's another assumption I've seen more times than I can count.

Who here has read of a tourney victor picking flowers and making them into a crown?

Anyone?

Tourney crowns seem to appear out of thin air once a victor has won his final tilt.

From whence do these mystical laurels emerge? The knight's squire? A saddlebag?

And @Brad Stark, are you honestly saying that you can imagine Robert Baratheon picking a bouquet of flowers?

Rhaegar, I can see. He's written as a thoughtful character, and at times, somewhat flowery. But even he seems like a stretch, no?

We've seen men prepare for jousts and tourneys. They arrange their pavilions, get their shields painted, they call for breastplate stretchers.

They do not pick forget-me-nots and weave them into little crowns. At least, not in asoiaf.

 

So I would like to offer a more plausible origin for this infamous qolab crown: Walter Whent (who, should remind us to read some Walt Whitman). As the tourney's host, he would have needed to make the necessary preparations. We've seen LF and Renly begin such preparations on Robert's behalf. Singers, food, city watch. I would guess that tourney grounds must be cleared and prepared, seating areas, feasting areas, etc.

Organizers would also likely be responsible for readying the champion's purse. I would think the qolab crown would be a part of that booty for the victor.

 

Thus, imho, neither Rhaegar or Robert are credible flower-picker candidates – not by a long shot. I'd be far less surprised to learn that Lord Whent's daughter had made the crown herself.

 

 

 

 

There's no better way to guarantee a given solution to one of GRRM's mysteries is wrong, than to call it the obvious solution.

In the words of the man's own wife, "George doesn't do 'obvious'."

And can I just ask, how on earth does a 22 year old married man fall in love with a tomboy that is 14 years old or less?

That ain't "love," my friend. That's borderline pedophilia. No wonder Brandon wanted Rhaegar to come out and die.

And, I must state as I have so many times before, that this line of reasoning so common in the forum-verse completely neglect's Lyanna's own character and convictions. In other words, who gives a fuck what Rhaegar loved or wanted? What we should really be asking, imo, is what did Lyanna love and want?

 

 

Finally, we agree on something.  

 

Yes indeed. Rhaegar was planning a coup, and rallying lords to his cause. Surely he was smart enough to know that his Great Council would go a bit mor

Thus, regardless of what he might have known or not known regarding the lore of winter roses, I find it highly unlikely that Rhaegar's purpose was to insult House Stark. 

 

O

More than a few. 

Great questions Voice.I do think it was an attempt at a tease gone wrong.

17 hours ago, Sly Wren said:

Agreed--especially since at the end of Storm, Martin shows us flat out that he will go with the far less evidenced option: Baelish and Lysa killed Arryn, not Cersei and Jaime.

Agreed--especially since Martin sets up the sniffling scene with Arya earlier in the same book.

Arya is with a singer who sings sad songs for the express purpose of seducing women:

"What, with only the boy here? I told you twice, the old woman was up to Lambswold helping that Fern birth her babe. And like as not it was one o' you planted the bastard in the poor girl's belly." He gave Tom a sour look. "You, I'd wager, with that harp o' yours, singing all them sad songs just to get poor Fern out of her smallclothes." 

"If a song makes a maid want to slip off her clothes and feel the good warm sun kiss her skin, why, is that the singer's fault?" asked Tom. Storm, Arya II

BUT: When Arya-the-Wolfmaid hears a song so sad, her response is VERY different. She's just sad and homesick and missing her family, not seduced.

"The wench is dead," the woman hissed. "Only worms may kiss her now." And then to Tom Sevenstrings she said, "I'll have my song or I'll have you gone."

So the singer played for her, so soft and sad that Arya only heard snatches of the words, though the tune was half-familiar. Sansa would know it, I bet. Her sister had known all the songs, and she could even play a little, and sing so sweetly. All I could ever do was shout the words. Storm, Arya IV

NOTE: Arya is sad because of missing her sister. And Lyanna at Harrenhal would soon have been marrying Robert--had a bunch of stuff not intervened. And thus getting ready to leave her siblings whom she loved.

 

Plus--note the phrasing:

"Under Harren's roof he ate and drank with the wolves, and many of their sworn swords besides, barrowdown men and moose and bears and mermen. The dragon prince sang a song so sad it made the wolf maid sniffle, but when her pup brother teased her for crying she poured wine over his head. Storm, Bran II

 

"A song so sad"--very similar to "so soft and sad"--and all in the same book.

 

Just as in Game, after Ned says Lyanna was fond of flowers, Sansa's first POV show Arya's very strong affinity for flowers (which isn't romantic), in Storm, Martin has shown us why wolfmaids get sad at sad songs.

 

And it isn't about seduction--it's about missing family.

 

Seems like there's a good chance Martin put all of that in for a reason.

 

Granted--Lyanna could still be the knight.

 

But I keep feeling like the identity of the knight is a misdirect. The other stuff--like who was there and who was doing what, like the fact that the Knight's defeated foes all come from houses who do unspeakable things for Tywin--those facts get brushed aside as we all look for the Knight.

 

Seems like there's a good case for looking at what else is going on in the story vs. just who the Knight might be. . . 

Sly these are great catches about Lya crying.You are right,essentially the wolf pack was going to be separated.All she knew;Winterfell,the people gone.

But swooning over a married man? I don't see that.Running away with him nah.Even worse after Rickard and Brandon's death ,and the call for the other's head by Rhaegar's dad.Sleeping with him i doubt it.

I've said this before i don't think after Harrenhall Rhaegar ever saw Lyanna.He was just a convenient scaapegoat for Lyanna's death.

15 hours ago, JNR said:

Well, that's just it.  It wasn't GRRM who wrote that narrative; it was the fans. 

What GRRM wrote was the handful of scraps I listed in the previous post and a few other scraps besides.  It's just the literal truth, and I'm sure you would agree.

We can connect and interpret the scraps as we please, but we can't reasonably say GRRM wants us to choose a particular interpretation, or that we're supposed to know X, Y, or Z.  We don't know him; we can't read his mind.

To me, it's roughly like a Rorschach narrative, and we're asked: "What do you see?" Lots of people see a heart; others see a bat; others see a butterfly.  The difference between a real Rorschach picture and the question of Jon's parentage is that there actually is a specific answer to Jon's parents, and eventually we're going to be told (or so GRRM said in the B&N interview).

Also, I'm not describing all this incredulously.  I'm not even a little surprised. It's human nature to draw conclusions based on wildly incomplete or uncertain information.

What does surprise me, greatly, is seeing fans so oversold, they would actually describe RLJ as being just as probable as the theory that there is a character named Jon, or the theory that there is a writer named George. 

It also surprises me that they would suggest anybody who sees it differently needs to be bitch-slapped... or is a Scientologist... or believes the Earth is flat.  These are all things that have been said on this site for many years now.  It's just part of the culture; we all know it, because we've all seen it, so many times, in so many threads.

Anybody who says they have a dead-lock, sure thing theory of Jon's parents is almost certainly mistaken, and I would say certainly except that there's a tiny chance that person might be GRRM.

To add something indirectly to this point.GRRM has also written his characters to employ the same deceptions themselves.Hence,we can't be certain the accounts of where people were and who they were with are true.

As far as the realm knows even Jon Snow,Arya is currently in WF married to Ramsey Bolton.

How will this be told years later? 

This kind of mummer's farce is part of the narrative.

13 hours ago, Sly Wren said:

 

Given the massive expense the tourney is said to have gone to, choosing really rare flowers for the laurel--that sounds like a flashy statement of expense, no? Fitting with the size and show and potential purpose of the tournament.

Possible. Or--the story could be a marker for the reader. Like the name "Bael-ish." Or Mance's cloak. 

But it would be very interesting if someone from the south knew that tale.

And this is the beauty of Asoiaf and why while it's fine to be mostly certain,being 100% certain about a theory probably isn't the way to go.

I've argued that Rhaegar's gesture was intended as a wity jab.But making wity jabs with the Starks is like poking a Porcupine.

Rhaegar being well read as he was;its possible he came across the story...I've always contended it was just a series of elements.I also agree that the flowers being chosen was just because they were rare.It was all about bling.

 

[Black Crow]

4 hours ago, Brad Stark said:

 

I do suspect a Targaryen Stark connection,  since these are by far the most important families in the series, and the main plot revolves around something that threw the seasons off.  The connection is probably ancient, around The Long Night or earlier.  And just as likely these families were enemies who's fighting threw off the seasons as them being blood relatives.

I'm not so sure.

Westeros was torn apart by the Lanisters and the Starks. GRRM talked of this feud being the first threat, the second was Danaerys the Dragonlord, and the third the big bad out of the north. Things haven't gone quite as advertised, but I can still see that bit from the Winds of Winter synopsis coming to pass that old foes must unite; that the wolf and the lion must hunt together and that ultimately both Ice and Fire will be defeated or at least held at bay

[LordBlakeney]

16 hours ago, JNR said:

Well, my goodness.  It seems you feel disrespected, but I wasn't writing with you in mind.  I don't think I've ever even heard of you before. 

You say you haven't read my stuff.  That's okay.  But not having read it, how is it you think I haven't put ideas out there?  I've constantly put ideas out there, for years and years. 

See the previous page, which contains this idea: that the three KG wanted to give Lyanna to Aerys as a political hostage, but couldn't because they were bound by the orders Rhaegar gave them (cf the Shaw interview)... and that's the real reason Hightower says Aerys would "yet sit the Iron Throne" if they hadn't been far away from King's Landing.  It had nothing to do with their baddassery.  It might be someone has suggested that idea on this site before, but if so I haven't read it.

I could read your stuff, I guess -- all 42 of your posts -- but from what I can tell, they're apt to be loaded with resentment, and I wonder if you are even real (or perhaps a sockpuppet of someone I have heard of).

Re your proposed bet: I have a bet with Black Crow, because I'm sure he exists.  It's really a form of mutual respect; it's just impossible for me not to respect him after having read his posts so many years now.   I think one of us will eventually lose and pay the other, assuming GRRM ever finishes the canon, and that will be that. 

Similarly, if Ran offered me your bet, I would just take it, and not bother with a third party escrow account in advance, because Ran has far more than enough credibility.  I don't think he's a liar or a cheat; I just think he's an extremely well-informed, but incorrect, fan of ASOIAF. 

But you seem to be a different creature: a troll.  However, I'll humor you a tad, just on the off chance you're not a troll; after all, lots of other people have been annoyed at things I wrote, off and on over the years.

Three mysteries that will eventually prove a much bigger deal in these books than Jon's parents?  Sure...

1. The true origin and nature of the Others

2. The true explanation of the bizarre seasons and, closely related, the reason why the first Long Night happened and a second never happened until now

3. The fundamental reason why many things seem to be developing in parallel between the current story and earlier points in Westeros' history (or mythology)

As to why they're all more important, that's simple enough.  Those mysteries provide the conflict and structure that drives the whole series.  Jon, meanwhile, is a major POV character, but that's all, and his parents, though an extremely well developed mystery, don't seem likely to be as influential on the biggest possible scale.

Of course you haven't heard of me. I don't feel personally disrespected, but your trite and conceited posts tend to disrespect anyone you disagree with. I enjoy reading this site, and I think most of my posts are just trying to better understand what someone else has said. That's kind of how discussion works. Someone introduces an idea, and then people can ask questions and think about. Really good ideas become popular. 

And you missed the entire thrust of my post. I asked repeatedly for just two names: Jon's mother and Jon's father. I'd love to hear your theory on the matter. But instead you again hid behind ambiguity and refused to put forward any attempt to answer my main question. That is what is so annoying. You shouldn't act like you're smarter than other people on here unless you are willing to have your ideas bounced around just like everyone else's. So give me your two names.

But in reality I don't think you have a theory. You just crave attention and act like you have ideas so people will assume you're seeing something they are not. But hey, prove me wrong. I'm on this site because I want to know what other, smarter people are thinking about the books. I will give you all the credit and praise you crave if you'll just put your theory out there. Two names.

It's real easy to prove I'm an actual person. Want my Facebook? Twitter? You are the one who boldly declared no one would take you up on your RLJ bet. You're the one who bragged about challenging random people on these forums to a bet no one would accept. You're the one who said people always have excuses. Well who has the excuses now? Not so bold anymore. Here I am accepting your challenge. And not some gentleman's agreement of a bet between two anonymous people. I listed a couple platforms we could use as a third party to hold our money in escrow until the specified conditions of our bet are met. I take the side that RLJ is true. Maybe $1000 is more than you're willing to risk. Fine. Name your price. 

Let's set up a skype how about you just tell me your theory in person if you're too worried about people on here seeing it for some reason. I would think you'd want it out there as soon as possible, since you seem to base self-worth on number of posts on this forum.

Look man, there's no reason to take this so seriously, so I'm sorry if I came on a little strong. But you've got to be able to see how annoying it is to keep gloating like you've proven something when all you seem to do is disagree with RLJ, saying you have a better theory, then never just spelling it out. That was what I found so frustrating, and that's why I just wanted two names from you. But you just dodged the question. I'll even take a link to where you've spelled out your theory on Jon's parents before, since I am admittedly only a casual peruser of the forums and not some lofty and respected theorist.

Say your two names, and I'll apologize for my ranting and go back to being a lurker. Take me up on my bet or not. But maybe when you post in the future have a little more charity for theories you disagree with or posters who are at least willing to put their ideas out there instead of hiding behind smart-a vapid rhetoric. I have read stuff of yours before that I found insightful, but your take on RLJ, and specifically your attitude in regards to RLJ is again, all hat and no cattle. Just throw your two names out there man. No need for a constant back and forth about it.

[Matthew.]

18 hours ago, Sly Wren said:

The idea that the two conspired--and that Tywin might have set himself up to double-cross Rhaegar at the end if necessary--yes--I could definitely see that.

We're not worlds apart here, as I agree with a lot of the underlying logic you propose, it's just the specific conclusion that Tywin was behind Lyanna's abduction that doesn't quite fit for me--I think he was playing a more cautious game, maintaining good relations with Rhaegar, not outright rejecting overtures from the Arryn-Stark-Baratheon conspiracy, and "picking his side" after the Trident decided things.

The issue I always return to is Rhaegar's poor reputation in Dorne - straight from GRRM himself - and the perception of people like Barristan that Rhaegar loved Lyanna. What they perceive doesn't necessarily tell us what's true, but it does tell us what Rhaegar didn't do: make any effort toward political damage control, or protecting the reputation he needs for strong alliances. It's not damning, but it is enough for me to still lean a little more toward the "Rhaegar did abduct Lyanna" side of the scale, for now.
 

17 hours ago, JNR said:

Well, that's just it.  It wasn't GRRM who wrote that narrative; it was the fans. 

What GRRM wrote was the handful of scraps I listed in the previous post and a few other scraps besides.  It's just the literal truth, and I'm sure you would agree.

We can connect and interpret the scraps as we please, but we can't reasonably say GRRM wants us to choose a particular interpretation, or that we're supposed to know X, Y, or Z.  We don't know him; we can't read his mind.

I think it's fair to say that GRRM wanted the reader to believe that Rhaegar was infatuated with Lyanna--be it love, lust, or whatever.

To me, the various ways people craft the RLJ narrative, or the conclusions they draw from it are irrelevant to its plausibility: the idea "Rhaegar could have impregnated Lyanna," is, in the abstract, very plausible within the text.
 

17 hours ago, JNR said:

What does surprise me, greatly, is seeing fans so oversold, they would actually describe RLJ as being just as probable as the theory that there is a character named Jon, or the theory that there is a writer named George. 

It also surprises me that they would suggest anybody who sees it differently needs to be bitch-slapped... or is a Scientologist... or believes the Earth is flat.  These are all things that have been said on this site for many years now.  It's just part of the culture; we all know it, because we've all seen it, so many times, in so many threads.

I can appreciate what you're saying here, and at the same time... it'd be awfully nice to have a discussion that isn't a part of some proxy argument being waged against "westeros.org."

You obviously have some interesting theories about ASOIAF that we could be exploring--which is why it's so frustrating that, in practice, I know more about your opinions on random Internet people like LmL and Elio than I know about your opinions on Jon, what Rhaegar was really doing during his absence, why the seasons are messed up, etc.

I apologize if I'm crossing the line or being a dick here, but I think this whole forums rivalry thing is, at this point, just a detriment to discussion; do we really need to constantly revisit 2, 3, and 4 year old grievances against random forums posters?

[LordBlakeney]

7 minutes ago, Matthew. said:

You obviously have some interesting theories about ASOIAF that we could be exploring--which is why it's so frustrating that, in practice, I know more about your opinions on random Internet people like LmL and Elio than I know about your opinions on Jon, what Rhaegar was really doing during his absence, why the seasons are messed up, etc.

I apologize if I'm crossing the line or being a dick here, but I think this whole forums rivalry thing is, at this point, just a detriment to discussion; do we really need to constantly revisit 2, 3, and 4 year old grievances against random forums posters?

@JNR Amen

[Matthew.]

5 hours ago, Brad Stark said:

I do suspect a Targaryen Stark connection,  since these are by far the most important families in the series, and the main plot revolves around something that threw the seasons off.  The connection is probably ancient, around The Long Night or earlier.  And just as likely these families were enemies who's fighting threw off the seasons as them being blood relatives.

If I'm not mistaken, Voice has explored an idea that's not entirely unrelated, albeit from a Stark vs. Dayne point of view. I'm probably botching it terribly here, but I think you can read more in detail in his theory about how Ice (the ancient sword) became Dawn.

What I always remember is his really clever observation that Eddard (technically, a rightful King of Winter by blood) fighting Arthur Dayne at the ToJ is a literal "Battle for the Dawn," since Eddard 'owns' the sword for a time in the battle's aftermath. Unbeknownst to the participants, perhaps there were metaphysical consequences to their battle.

[JNR]

3 hours ago, wolfmaid7 said:

As far as the realm knows even Jon Snow,Arya is currently in WF married to Ramsey Bolton.

How will this be told years later? 

Yep, that's a great point.  If asked, the huge majority of Westeros would agree Arya married Ramsay (if they knew anything at all).  But it would still not be remotely true. 

And if they were told "No, actually, Arya went on a fantastic journey in which she got a Faceless Man to murder multiple people for free, and then went to Braavos and trained to be a Faceless Man herself, all before she even hit pubert" they would laugh and say that was a crazy notion.  So much more complicated and unbelievable than the idea she was found and married the new heir to Winterfell.  And they would all be completely wrong.

1 hour ago, LordBlakeney said:

listed a couple platforms we could use as a third party to hold our money in escrow until the specified conditions of our bet are met. I take the side that RLJ is true. Maybe $1000 is more than you're willing to risk.

Actually, I like the amount!  That's why I would take the same bet, with your terms, if Ran offered it. 

But the platforms you listed don't do what you think.

Any such platform would have to do three things (1) e-commerce to support transfer of money, (2) escrow accounts, to hold money securely by a trusted third party until the bet was resolved, and (3) an expert judge, to determine the winner, then award the stakes to the winner.  Meaning, in this case, an ASOIAF expert.

Well, sure -- that would solve this situation completely... but that service doesn't exist. 

Here's what Youbetme does, for instance: It publishes the existence of bets.  The end.  No e-commerce, no escrow, no expert judge.   I don't think such a service would be legal in the US, even, due to gambling laws.

So why would I take your bet if Ran offered it? What's the difference?

I would take it because I know him for sure to be a serious man a serious stake in ASOIAF, as opposed to a total newbie with 44 posts.  That means I don't need a platform or an escrow account; I trust Ran's word.   Also, of course, he knows GRRM, who would be the best possible expert judge of who had won such a bet! 

But Ran turned down the bet I offered him... and I turned down the different bet Ran offered me... so I'm not sure such a bet will ever happen.

However, if you find any platform that really supports the three things I list above, please get back to me.  I will look at it with considerable interest.

1 hour ago, Matthew. said:

I think it's fair to say that GRRM wanted the reader to believe that Rhaegar was infatuated with Lyanna--be it love, lust, or whatever.

OK.  I think it's fair to say that GRRM wanted the reader to know ASOIAF characters believe that Rhaegar was infatuated with Lyanna.    

We obviously just disagree on this, so I'll let it go.

1 hour ago, Matthew. said:

You obviously have some interesting theories about ASOIAF that we could be exploring--which is why it's so frustrating

Well, I apologize if it seems frustrating, and I've certainly heard that from other people in the past (and now again).

And you were never on Sable Hall, as I recall... so you never read the major theories I did, in fact, publish and openly discuss there, that I never have published or discussed here.

It's kinda funny in a way.  There's an RLJ regular who for years said the same things as Lord Blakeney: "You have no theories, you just want attention, you're a fraud, blah blah blah."   But lately, he dropped that.  His new line is: "You definitely have real and serious theories, but you don't respond well to criticism of them."   I mean, I have to laugh; the guy can't seem to make up his mind how best to attack me.

But you, Matthew, do have cred with me.  I know you to be a respectable, legit poster, and I can see the frustration is real.  So I'll tell you what: I will simply never refer to any unpublished idea or theory I have, on any ASOIAF subject.

Instead, I will just stick to throwing out new ideas, like the one about Lyanna/hostage/KG... or the one at the beginning of this thread edition, in which I pointed out that Meera and Jojen have different theories on the KotLT... and that Meera obviously thinks it was Howland... and only Jojen ever asks Bran about his father telling the story, because apparently he thinks it was Lyanna or another Stark.

[LordBlakeney]

2 minutes ago, JNR said:

Yep, that's a great point.  If asked, the huge majority of Westeros would agree Arya married Ramsay (if they knew anything at all).  But it would still not be remotely true. 

And if they were told "No, actually, Arya went on a fantastic journey in which she got a Faceless Man to murder multiple people for free, and then went to Braavos and trained to be a Faceless Man herself, all before she even hit pubert" they would laugh and say that was a crazy notion.  So much more complicated and unbelievable than the idea she was found and married the new heir to Winterfell.  And they would all be completely wrong.

Actually, I like the amount!  That's why I would take the same bet, with your terms, if Ran offered it. 

But the platforms you listed don't do what you think.

Any such platform would have to do three things (1) e-commerce to support transfer of money, (2) escrow accounts, to hold money securely by a trusted third party until the bet was resolved, and (3) an expert judge, to determine the winner, then award the stakes to the winner.  Meaning, in this case, an ASOIAF expert.

Well, sure -- that would solve this situation completely... but that service doesn't exist. 

Here's what Youbetme does, for instance: It publishes the existence of bets.  The end.  No e-commerce, no escrow, no expert judge.   I don't think such a service would be legal in the US, even, due to gambling laws.

So why would I take your bet if Ran offered it? What's the difference?

I would take it because I know him for sure to be a serious man a serious stake in ASOIAF, as opposed to a total newbie with 44 posts.  That means I don't need a platform or an escrow account; I trust Ran's word.   Also, of course, he knows GRRM, who would be the best possible expert judge of who had won such a bet! 

But Ran turned down the bet I offered him... and I turned down the different bet Ran offered me... so I'm not sure such a bet will ever happen.

However, if you find any platform that really supports the three things I list above, please get back to me.  I will look at it with considerable interest.

OK.  I think it's fair to say that GRRM wanted the reader to know ASOIAF characters believe that Rhaegar was infatuated with Lyanna.    

We obviously just disagree on this, so I'll let it go.

Well, I apologize if it seems frustrating, and I've certainly heard that from other people in the past (and now again).

And you were never on Sable Hall, as I recall... so you never read the major theories I did, in fact, publish and openly discuss there, that I never have published or discussed here.

It's kinda funny in a way.  There's an RLJ regular who for years said the same things as Lord Blakeney: "You have no theories, you just want attention, you're a fraud, blah blah blah."   But lately, he dropped that.  His new line is: "You definitely have real and serious theories, but you don't respond well to criticism of them."   I mean, I have to laugh; the guy can't seem to make up his mind how best to attack me.

But you, Matthew, do have cred with me.  I know you to be a respectable, legit poster, and I can see the frustration is real.  So I'll tell you what: I will simply never refer to any unpublished idea or theory I have, on any ASOIAF subject.

Instead, I will just stick to throwing out new ideas, like the one about Lyanna/hostage/KG... or the one at the beginning of this thread edition, in which I pointed out that Meera and Jojen have different theories on the KotLT... and that Meera obviously thinks it was Howland... and only Jojen ever asks Bran about his father telling the story, because apparently he thinks it was Lyanna or another Stark.

sooo... still not willing to say who you think Jon's parents are. Full of sound and fury signifying nothing.

[Black Crow]

You'll get used to it, its just his way.

Keep discussion to the books, please, not to the posters.

[Frey family reunion]

17 hours ago, Sly Wren said:

 

Possible. Or--the story could be a marker for the reader. Like the name "Bael-ish." Or Mance's cloak. 

But it would be very interesting if someone from the south knew that tale.

Are you thinking Mance could have come south with the Night's Watch brother and whispered in someone's ear? Something else? 

If she did so--I'd completely agree. But. . . given that the novels don't establish that the roses only grow in Winterfell, do we have enough to assume this?

Or do you have text to support the idea that the roses only grow in Winterfell?

Are we sure that the Night's Watch brother that gave the recruitment speech wasn't Mance?  Someone with his charisma might be an ideal candidate to extoll the virtues of the Night's Watch.

[Brad Stark]

2 hours ago, Black Crow said:

I'm not so sure.

Westeros was torn apart by the Lanisters and the Starks. GRRM talked of this feud being the first threat, the second was Danaerys the Dragonlord, and the third the big bad out of the north. Things haven't gone quite as advertised, but I can still see that bit from the Winds of Winter synopsis coming to pass that old foes must unite; that the wolf and the lion must hunt together and that ultimately both Ice and Fire will be defeated or at least held at bay

I believe Lanisters are secret Targaryens, which isn't canon.  If you don't, the Lanisters are another very important family.  I believe the Daynes are related to the Targaryens, but possibly an ancient link.

[Frey family reunion]

18 hours ago, Brad Stark said:

Who physically picked the flowers and made the crown is irrelevant.  And these specific type of flowers could have been picked by chance, although that seems unlikely as they came from far away.

 My suggestion is someone knew the story of Bael the Bard story, that Rhaegar would give them to Lyanna, and that it would insult the Starks, and specifically arranged for these flowers to be used.  It doesn't matter if Old Nan physically picked the flowers,  what matters is who told her to and why.

I'm inclined to agree that the choice of flowers were suggested by a provocateur and given to Rhaegar who was most probably ignorant of the Bael story.  Many posters have likened the "abduction of Lyanna" to Paris' abduction of Helen.  If so, the blue rose crown would make a fine golden apple of discord.

[Sly Wren]

12 hours ago, Black Crow said:

Exactly so!

Conversely, as I said earlier all the references to them centre around Lyanna and Jon, not House Stark at large

Mostly, yes. Though we do have Cersei's attack on the Blue Bard with his hair scented in blue roses in Feast. Not to mention the Blue Bard's basic existence--he could have been anyone Cersei used--Martin made him Blue and Rosy.

Which, like the name Baelish, seems more like a marker for the reader about what the roses are about.

4 hours ago, wolfmaid7 said:

Sly these are great catches about Lya crying.You are right,essentially the wolf pack was going to be separated.All she knew;Winterfell,the people gone.

 Family love is strong in a wolf pack. 

2 hours ago, Matthew. said:

We're not worlds apart here, as I agree with a lot of the underlying logic you propose, it's just the specific conclusion that Tywin was behind Lyanna's abduction that doesn't quite fit for me--I think he was playing a more cautious game, maintaining good relations with Rhaegar, not outright rejecting overtures from the Arryn-Stark-Baratheon conspiracy, and "picking his side" after the Trident decided things.

You're right--we're not far apart. I do think Rhaegar clearly ended up with Lyanna somehow.

But I also think that her initial "disappearance" might not have been what we thought--we see that with both Arya and Sansa. And Arya ends up with a group that (at least in one scene) echoes the 3 KG at the Tower. Lyanna could have "ended up with" Rhaegar and Co.

And I agree that Tywin was being cautious--but we also know from both Duskendale and the Red Wedding that Tywin will make really big, violent moves if he's set up someone else to take the blame.

21 minutes ago, Frey family reunion said:

Are we sure that the Night's Watch brother that gave the recruitment speech wasn't Mance?  Someone with his charisma might be an ideal candidate to extoll the virtues of the Night's Watch.

We aren't sure of this at all--which is why it peaked my interest.

And it might even explain how/why Mance knows southern songs--the Dornishman's Wife--Martin makes a point of having Jon notice it.

No way I can think of enough info to make this argument solid yet--but it would be a very cool detail with a lot of potential implications. 

[ravenous reader]

@LordBlakeney:  I think it's a case of 'nudge-nudge, wink-wink, say-no-more..!'  That's why I've compared it to a burlesque show, in which the strippers titillate, dangling the prospect of an answer, but never actually 'giving it up'...(this cockiness...forgive the pun...starts with GRRM, you realize; JNR and Voice are only following his example...so don't blame them).