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What if Aerys never went mad?


UFT

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lets say aerys as an old man remains a relatively charming politician and king.

maybe defiance of duskendale never happens. maybe tywin and aerys never become enemies.

what happens in this new timeline? does rhaegar still kidnap lyanna?

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Depends on why and how you think the 'kidnapping' happened.

I think Lyanna was tKoLT, Rhaegar knew, and eventually Aerys did too; I think he and Lyanna encountered some men working for Aerys / Varys / other_player_here (either Rhaegar riding to a rescue; Rhaegar riding to warn and both getting waylaid; or Rhaegar discovering her taken in his name and riding to stop it). They fight / flee / etc., and encounter some distress (injury / close pursuit / closed escape options), thus explaining their flight and the failure of anyone to hear much of anything from either of them during the war. At some point, amidst the stress and excitement, the mutual crush from Harrenhal becomes something more, and the rest is, well, fake history.

 

In the version I believe, it's unlikely to have happened; as A.) Harrenhal never happens (no need to depose Aerys), B.) Aerys is no threat to Lyanna, and neither he nor another player in the Game feels a need to threaten Lyanna.

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IMO Rheagar still goes bonkers and kidnaps Lyanna - or some other high born girl - for his breeding programme.

Aerys has to punish him and heftily recompense the offended families. The girl's, the Martell's plus - if Rheagar managed to ruin a betrothal - the boy's family too.

Maybe Aerys disinherits and banishes the loon? Maybe he follows in grandpa's and grandma's footsteps and arranges non-incestuous marriages for his children and grandchildren, to avoid the crazy showing up in Rheagar after two generations of inbreeding?

Come 300 AC and the Others he takes the Black - leaving the Iron Throne to Aegon (previously carefully monitored for signs of the crazy) -and becomes the Shield of the Living.

Scorpions shooting wildfyre bombs help defeat the Others ... and Aerys becomes the 300th Lord Commander!

:)

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3 hours ago, TMIFairy said:

IMO Rheagar still goes bonkers and kidnaps Lyanna - or some other high born girl - for his breeding programme.

Aerys has to punish him and heftily recompense the offended families. The girl's, the Martell's plus - if Rheagar managed to ruin a betrothal - the boy's family too.

Maybe Aerys disinherits and banishes the loon? Maybe he follows in grandpa's and grandma's footsteps and arranges non-incestuous marriages for his children and grandchildren, to avoid the crazy showing up in Rheagar after two generations of inbreeding?

Come 300 AC and the Others he takes the Black - leaving the Iron Throne to Aegon (previously carefully monitored for signs of the crazy) -and becomes the Shield of the Living.

Scorpions shooting wildfyre bombs help defeat the Others ... and Aerys becomes the 300th Lord Commander!

:)

Nice. I suppose in this scenario Jon might be treated better at Winterfell as he would be a royal bastard and not Ned's which means he won't get under Catelyn's skin. And assuming his mother still dies giving birth to him, Cat might even become a nurturing surrogate mother to him thus not turning him into an emo with all her nastiness.

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6 hours ago, UFT said:

lets say aerys as an old man remains a relatively charming politician and king.

maybe defiance of duskendale never happens. maybe tywin and aerys never become enemies.

what happens in this new timeline? does rhaegar still kidnap lyanna?

A lot of the little things would be different.  For example,

  • Tywin and Aerys would remain friends longer.
  • Rhaegar marry Cersei.
  • Viserys marries a suitable daughter of a great house.
  • Daenerys marries into another great house.

The warm and fuzzy feelings will only last until the eventual rebellion of the Starks, Arryns, and Baratheons.  Rickard, Jon, and Robert were determined to topple the Targaryens and they might have been bold enough even if  Tywin had stayed loyal to Aerys.  In this scenario, Dorne might side with the rebels and the Ironborn are a wildcard.

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Harrenhall wouldn't happen so rhaegar might not meet Lyanna until a lot later.

Steffon BAratheon may or may not be send to look for a bride for rhaegar.

But probably aerys would just live longer and nothing much would happen until the white walkers.

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1 hour ago, Kaibaman said:

I suppose in this scenario Jon might be treated better at Winterfell as he would be a royal bastard and not Ned's which means he won't get under Catelyn's skin. And assuming his mother still dies giving birth to him, Cat might even become a nurturing surrogate mother to him thus not turning him into an emo with all her nastiness.

In this scenario, Cat would marry Brandon, not Ned. Maybe Ned could had married Ashara (if he really loved her, what we are not sure about).

4 hours ago, TMIFairy said:

IMO Rheagar still goes bonkers and kidnaps Lyanna - or some other high born girl - for his breeding programme.

Perhaps if Tywin and Aerys remained friends, Raeghar would marry Cersei, who probably could give him three children, so he would not need another wife (and of course, Cersei would not become mad).

1 hour ago, Take Me 2 Your Leader said:

The warm and fuzzy feelings will only last until the eventual rebellion of the Starks, Arryns, and Baratheons.

There was a rebillion being planned? I didn't noticed that.

Extras:

Jaime would marrry Lysa or Elia.

Quellon Greyjoy would live a bit more, and probably after his death Balon would not rebel against Aerys and Tywin.

Jon Arryn's heir (I don't remember his name) would be Lord Arryn, instead of our Not so Sweet Robin.

Varys would not be Master of Whisperers, he would remain in Pentos.

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2 hours ago, Tygett Blackwood said:

In this scenario, Cat would marry Brandon, not Ned. Maybe Ned could had married Ashara (if he really loved her, what we are not sure about).

Oh yeah forgot about that. Then again who knows. Brandon being the boor he was might have actually started trouble that could have gotten him killed anyways, thus allowing Ned to still take their father's place. Although him marrying Catelyn without a war happening would still be up in the air.

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6 hours ago, Take Me 2 Your Leader said:

A lot of the little things would be different.  For example,

  • Tywin and Aerys would remain friends longer.
  • Rhaegar marry Cersei.
  • Viserys marries a suitable daughter of a great house.
  • Daenerys marries into another great house.

The warm and fuzzy feelings will only last until the eventual rebellion of the Starks, Arryns, and Baratheons.  Rickard, Jon, and Robert were determined to topple the Targaryens and they might have been bold enough even if  Tywin had stayed loyal to Aerys.  In this scenario, Dorne might side with the rebels and the Ironborn are a wildcard.

I believe Rickard Stark and his maester had Southron Ambitions and a rebellion would have happened.  But, I believe the outcome would be different.  With a Targaryen + Tyrell + Lannister block, Rickard would have lost.  Tywin would counsel the king to Castamere the Starks, the Arryns, Baratheons, and Tullys.  Varys would agree and we start the story with different families running the north, stormlands, riverlands, and vale.

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13 hours ago, UFT said:

lets say aerys as an old man remains a relatively charming politician and king.

maybe defiance of duskendale never happens. maybe tywin and aerys never become enemies.

what happens in this new timeline? does rhaegar still kidnap lyanna?

Mostly, the book wouldn't be written as the king's madness plays a central role in the plot.

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49 minutes ago, The Transporter said:

I believe Rickard Stark and his maester had Southron Ambitions and a rebellion would have happened.

Probably Steffon Baratheon would not agree with his plans, as he was Aerys's friend, and they couldn't do the rebellion without someone with Targ blood (yes, I know Jon Arryn also has it, but with just 3 kingdoms they would not risk).

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I think the key component of the question is whether or not his madness extends to his jealous spurning and dismissal of Tywin from his service. If he keeps his friendship with Tywin, and if a marriage offer between Cersei and Rhaegar is accepted, the realm enjoys more or less a period of peaceful prosperity for as long as Aerys sits the throne, and 95% of all events mentioned in the book, minor and major, radically change.

As for other characters:

* Rickard Stark's "Southron ambitions" bring the North further into the fold.

* Brandon marries Catelyn Tully. Ned either marries Ashara Dayne or, perhaps more likely, a woman from a Northern vassal house. If Benjen is for the Wall and both Brandon and Lyanna are spoken for in terms of Southron spouses, Rickard might seek a hometown girl for Ned.

* Jon Arryn probably doesn't marry Lysa because there isn't a wartime allegiance to forge. If Jon dies, Elbert Arryn is his heir.

* If Joanna's marriage offer between Jaime Lannister and Elia Martell is spurned, perhaps Jaime marries Lysa.

* Robert marries Lyanna. There's also a very good chance that Steffon Baratheon doesn't die at sea, which affects the way Stannis and Renly are brought up. There is also the likelihood that Stannis isn't matched to Selyse Florent, which means no Shireen or, indirectly, Edric Storm.

* Davos isn't knighted for saving Storm's End.

* The Greyjoy Rebellion doesn't happen with a Targaryen on the throne.

* No defiance of Duskendale, which doesn't end in the extinguishing of House Hollard save for Dontos. A small thing, but notable.

* Littlefinger never rises to power if Jon Arryn isn't brought aboard the Small Council. Varys likely doesn't come over from Essos as well.

Honestly, the only things that I don't see changing are Domeric Bolton's poisoning or Jorah Mormont's exile, unless the lack of a Greyjoy Rebellion preventing him from getting a knighthood keeps him from the tourney life.

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4 hours ago, BRANDON GREYSTARK said:

Rhaegar still would have grabbed Lyanna , and Brandon still would have gone nuts .

He met Lyanna at Harrenhal, which he put together as a pretext to treat with other lords in order to depose his father. It's under question whether the tourney would have happened at all. A maester speculates that Rhaegar shadow funded the tourney as the Whents were not as well-off as many assumed.

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He marries Rhaegar to Cersei since he respects Tywin and realizes how great of an asset he is to his reign. Jamie marries Lysa Tully and cries every time Cersei births Rhaegar a child from Dragonstone. Rhaegar has his three kids needed for his prophecy since Cersei is able to have more then two kids. Robert makes Lyanna happy by staying loyal to her bed and by letting her ride horses and have sword fights with the stable boys. Brandon Stark has like 4 bastards running around the North so Catelyn is miserable. Ned marries Ashara Dayne and takes care of her and Brandon's 2 children. Brandon gives Ned Moat Callin for taking care of his mistress and children. 

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19 hours ago, Take Me 2 Your Leader said:

A lot of the little things would be different.  For example,

  • Tywin and Aerys would remain friends longer.
  • Rhaegar marry Cersei.
  • Viserys marries a suitable daughter of a great house.
  • Daenerys marries into another great house.

The warm and fuzzy feelings will only last until the eventual rebellion of the Starks, Arryns, and Baratheons.  Rickard, Jon, and Robert were determined to topple the Targaryens and they might have been bold enough even if  Tywin had stayed loyal to Aerys.  In this scenario, Dorne might side with the rebels and the Ironborn are a wildcard.

 

13 hours ago, The Transporter said:

I believe Rickard Stark and his maester had Southron Ambitions and a rebellion would have happened.  But, I believe the outcome would be different.  With a Targaryen + Tyrell + Lannister block, Rickard would have lost.  Tywin would counsel the king to Castamere the Starks, the Arryns, Baratheons, and Tullys.  Varys would agree and we start the story with different families running the north, stormlands, riverlands, and vale.

I agree Southron Ambitions would have led to war eventually.

I know Aerys was mad but I always wondered how mad he was vs how much was simply to make him look worse. I mean its not paranoia if your Lords are plotting against you which I certainly believe he was. Whatever happened to him at Duskendale certainly had a terrible effect on him. Of course nothing excuses what he did to Rickard and Brandon Stark.

ALso looking at the World Book makes Tywin look really good and all I can think is that Pycelle is the primary source for Aerys reign and we know how much he loves Tywin.

 

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Well, in this scenario Aerys has the support of Tywin and the Westerlands, doesn´t execute Brandon and Richard and instead tries to solve the situation, compensating the Starks with privilegies, money and titles to cover up Rhaegars stupidity, making it unlikely that a rebellion takes place. And if the Starks think they are given too little as compensation and declares on the Crown, then the war would include Westerlands early on the Crowns side, making Hoster less willing to join said alliance. A sane Aerys would also work his PR depantment harder and making his demands of troops harder to resist. 

It would also be a less good sell for the Stark allies. Instead of a feudal "breach" of power you have a king who want´s to negotiate over his stupid heir´s mistake, making him look sympathetic and the Starks as nothern warmongerers if they push. So while certainly the Starks might not be happy and might want more than privilegies, money and titles, there is far less likely that the power bloc want to do anything about it. Dorne and Iron Islands will stay out of it (since Rhaegar is married to Cersei) and so might the Riverlands. 

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On 5/14/2017 at 7:50 AM, Protagoras said:

Well, in this scenario Aerys has the support of Tywin and the Westerlands, doesn´t execute Brandon and Richard and instead tries to solve the situation, compensating the Starks with privilegies, money and titles to cover up Rhaegars stupidity, making it unlikely that a rebellion takes place. And if the Starks think they are given too little as compensation and declares on the Crown, then the war would include Westerlands early on the Crowns side, making Hoster less willing to join said alliance. A sane Aerys would also work his PR depantment harder and making his demands of troops harder to resist. 

It would also be a less good sell for the Stark allies. Instead of a feudal "breach" of power you have a king who want´s to negotiate over his stupid heir´s mistake, making him look sympathetic and the Starks as nothern warmongerers if they push. So while certainly the Starks might not be happy and might want more than privilegies, money and titles, there is far less likely that the power bloc want to do anything about it. Dorne and Iron Islands will stay out of it (since Rhaegar is married to Cersei) and so might the Riverlands. 

Negotiation with traitors is a sign of weakness.  If we operate on the assumption, and I think it is reasonable to do so, that Rickard was plotting to overthrow the Targaryens, it would be a mistake to negotiate with him.  The best course of action?  Lure Rickard to K/L like he did and execute him.  Deny his request to a trial of combat.  Kill him and Brandon.  Gather the forces, march north, and pull down Winterfell.  Level the ground where it stood.  Rickard does not get to sit on the bargaining table since by the act of conspiracy he is already guilty of treason and he should be killed along with the other members of his plan.  He and Brandon do not deserve mercy.  To give them anything would only encourage others to test the king's power. 

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