ToJ 3KG answered

[John Suburbs]

On Invalid Date at 7:52 AM, Coolbeard the Exile said:

It is much more crackpot than anything else because it has no support at all other than your idea.

lol, perhaps not, but I don't see a whole lot of support for any other idea as to why the toughest members of the KG are sitting idle in the middle of nowhere while their prince and king are being slaughtered.

[Universal Sword Donor]

40 minutes ago, John Suburbs said:

lol, perhaps not, but I don't see a whole lot of support for any other idea as to why the toughest members of the KG are sitting idle in the middle of nowhere while their prince and king are being slaughtered.

The general line paraded around about "They were there because Rhaegar told them to protect Lyanna and Jon" seems fairly well supported.

[John Suburbs]

14 minutes ago, Universal Sword Donor said:

The general line paraded around about "They were there because Rhaegar told them to protect Lyanna and Jon" seems fairly well supported.

Sure, but there is no evidence to support that. There is no evidence to support anything. It's all just conjecture at this point.

[Universal Sword Donor]

3 minutes ago, John Suburbs said:

Sure, but there is no evidence to support that. There is no evidence to support anything. It's all just conjecture at this point.

Did you guys mean generally accepted or well evidenced? I took it as the former. If you meant the latter, I'd tend to agree

[Khal Varys]

Some conjecture to be sure, but I think Ygrajn has the right of it as to why they were there.

The timeliness isn't quite complete I don't think.  However, if we say that it's likely that Whent & Dayne are in Rhaegar's camp for a great council... we know that Aerys disrupted a meeting that was likely about forming a council to depose Aerys peacefully, under the auspices of the tourney at Harrenhal.  Those negotiations likely continued if they were disrupted there, elsewhere, but especially if the movement had any steam.  So then it's not unreasonable for Whent & Dayne to be with Rhaegar.  Was not Rhaegar tasked by Aerys to find the Mystery Knight of the Laughing Tree?  Well, once/if Rhaegar learns of the widely believed identity of Lyanna as the culprit, he surely can't turn her in to Aerys... especially with the added romantic interest.  So Rhaegar catches up to Lyanna shortly after the tourney, learns her identity, and decides to keep her safe for one, I believe... from Aerys' wrath, but then for more reasons, but it would then stand to reason that Rhaegar was or became responsible for her safety, which got screwed up by Brandon, which then precipitated the war, but that gets usbup to the opening shots with Aerys murdering Rickard and Brandon & calling for Ned & Robert's heads too.  Rhaegar now clearly can't risk her safety and is perhaps already pregnant.  Now due to the 'rebels' calling their banners, the great council must wait, I'm not sure that Rhaegar himself felt as though Robert and Ned were unjustified, if he planned to depose his father himself.  

I think I would agree that Rhaegar, whatever his plan and for whatever reason delayed too long to really aid in the fall of his house, but I think there's plenty of precedent of KG shielding not just Kings but the royal family members as well as a reasonable thing, along with how things transpired don't make it crazy that 3 KG were away from the King at the time of his death, when one of the other 4 killed him ultimately.  Even after Rhaegar dies, Martell dies and Selmy wounded, that left Darry & Lannister, but it seems to say something that they stayed at the ToJ and didn't think they'd violated any oaths, nor does Ned.

It's possible they believed in the prophecy.  Whent I can see, with the Whents being associated with sorcery... Dayne probably from a loyalty standpoint, as a friend, who may have believed in Rhaegar's cause.  Hightowers associated with magic as well, so there's that angle.

[Chris Mormont]

On 5/17/2017 at 2:10 PM, Ygrain said:

And Aerys didn't use the same threat to get Robert and Ned stop fighting because...?

The war started because she was "kidnapped".  Ned and Robert were fighting to get her back.

Perhaps if Aerys had Lyanna the whole time he may have been able to use her as a hostage and threaten her life if they continued the rebellion, but by the time he gets to her, he wants Robert and Ned dead, he get Rhaegar to fight and remember Aery is mad, he doesn't threaten people he kills them

[Universal Sword Donor]

32 minutes ago, Chris Mormont said:

The war started because she was "kidnapped".  Ned and Robert were fighting to get her back.

Perhaps if Aerys had Lyanna the whole time he may have been able to use her as a hostage and threaten her life if they continued the rebellion, but by the time he gets to her, he wants Robert and Ned dead, he get Rhaegar to fight and remember Aery is mad, he doesn't threaten people he kills them

They didn't start fighting until Aerys called for their heads and Jon raised his banners in revolt.

[Ygrain]

54 minutes ago, Chris Mormont said:

The war started because she was "kidnapped".  Ned and Robert were fighting to get her back.

Wrong. The war started because Aerys wanted the head of Ned and Robert, and Jon Arryn refused and rebelled. 

54 minutes ago, Chris Mormont said:

Perhaps if Aerys had Lyanna the whole time he may have been able to use her as a hostage and threaten her life if they continued the rebellion, but by the time he gets to her, he wants Robert and Ned dead, he get Rhaegar to fight

See above, he wanted them dead long before any fighting ensued.

 

54 minutes ago, Chris Mormont said:

and remember Aery is mad, he doesn't threaten people he kills them

Wrong. He was sane enough to be using poor Elia as a hostage against Dorne to ensure their loyalty, and Jaime against Tywin.

[Universal Sword Donor]

15 minutes ago, Ygrain said:

Wrong. The war started because Aerys wanted the head of Ned and Robert, and Jon Arryn refused and rebelled. 

See above, he wanted them dead long before any fighting ensued.

Wrong. He was sane enough to be using poor Elia as a hostage against Dorne to ensure their loyalty, and Jaime against Tywin.

Ygrain is very wise 

[John Suburbs]

21 hours ago, Universal Sword Donor said:

Did you guys mean generally accepted or well evidenced? I took it as the former. If you meant the latter, I'd tend to agree

I don't see any hard evidence at all that Rhaegar was either the kidnapper or the kidnapee, nor whether Aerys was involved or not. Fever dreams are intriguing, but they are hardly a substitute for what was really said or what really happened, especially 20 years later when the brain is full of opiates.

So sure, Rhaegar might have kidnapped Lyanna just as the histories say, or she may have run away with him willingly, or she might have been taken on the orders of Aerys . . . or . . . both Lyanna and Rhaegar might have been kidnapped, either on Aerys' orders or by the KG themselves. Consequently, Jon might be Rhaegar's son, or Aerys' or one of the KG's or somebody else's entirely.

What I do know is that people who say ideas other than their own are crackpot because they have no evidence are being silly. There is no real evidence for anything here.

[Chris Mormont]

23 hours ago, Ygrain said:

Wrong. The war started because Aerys wanted the head of Ned and Robert, and Jon Arryn refused and rebelled. 

But why did he want their heads?  Because after Lyanna was kidnapped, Brandon went to Kings Landing demanding Rhaegar.  He is then arrested, and Rickard Stark is summoned and both are killed by Aerys.  After which Aerys demands Ned and Rob's heads because he doesn't want them to call their banners and seek revenge on him and Rhaegar.  He didn't just wake up one morning and say, I want Ned and Rob's heads, Lyanna's kidnapping started the chain of events.  So I am not wrong.

 

23 hours ago, Ygrain said:

Wrong. He was sane enough to be using poor Elia as a hostage against Dorne to ensure their loyalty, and Jaime against Tywin.

Elia was his daughter in law, she wasn't brought to KL against her will.  She married into the family and that marriage formed an alliance with Dorne.  As for Jamie and Tywin, yes, keeping Jamie close was as good as having a hostage.

[Universal Sword Donor]

54 minutes ago, Chris Mormont said:

But why did he want their heads?  Because after Lyanna was kidnapped, Brandon went to Kings Landing demanding Rhaegar.  He is then arrested, and Rickard Stark is summoned and both are killed by Aerys.  After which Aerys demands Ned and Rob's heads because he doesn't want them to call their banners and seek revenge on him and Rhaegar.  He didn't just wake up one morning and say, I want Ned and Rob's heads, Lyanna's kidnapping started the chain of events.  So I am not wrong.

Gavrilo Prinzip shot Archduke Franz Ferdninand, which is generally regarded as the cause of WW1. Do we want to blame the person who manufactured the faulty grenade or the cook who make his lunch instead?

[Khal Varys]

1 hour ago, Chris Mormont said:

But why did he want their heads?  Because after Lyanna was kidnapped, Brandon went to Kings Landing demanding Rhaegar.  He is then arrested, and Rickard Stark is summoned and both are killed by Aerys.  After which Aerys demands Ned and Rob's heads because he doesn't want them to call their banners and seek revenge on him and Rhaegar.  He didn't just wake up one morning and say, I want Ned and Rob's heads, Lyanna's kidnapping started the chain of events.  So I am not wrong.

 

Elia was his daughter in law, she wasn't brought to KL against her will.  She married into the family and that marriage formed an alliance with Dorne.  As for Jamie and Tywin, yes, keeping Jamie close was as good as having a hostage.

That's one interpretation.  However, we mustn't forget that Aerys tasked Rhaegar with finding the identity of the Knight of the Laughing Tree.  So while it is possible that Aerys was well informed about what Rhaegar was doing with the daughter of a Lord, but it's also possible that Aerys only learned of Lyanna's disappearance via Brandon's accusation of kidnapping.  It is then also possible that Aerys didn't know of the actual relationship between Lyanna and Rhaegar, but that doesn't mean he too didn't make assumptions.  It's possible Aerys' view of that relationship wasn't the issue that precipitated him killing Brandon.  It was that a non Targaryen lord challenged the crown and demanded the crown prince's life be subject to risk simply on the accusation with no proof.  That was incredibly rash and while I don't condone Aerys' actions in the least, his demeanor wasn't a mystery, he was cruel and unpredictable.  

It's individual interpretation but I believe Aerys called for Ned's head as a pre-emptive move, but Robert is odd and to me suggests he represents Aerys' paranoia due to the relationship developed between the two at the Eerie.  

 

Yes Elia came to KL under those circumstances, but as war erupted that situation evolved.  It seems nearly certain that Elia was being held to force Dorne's allegiance.  If Jaime is being used in the same manner, why is it unreasonable that Elia be used in the same way?  Lewyn was leading the Dornish forces, no one else to hold for that added sense of security if you're Aerys.  Aerys is acting absolutely like a madman and I'm supposed to believe Elia had free reign to leave or chose to stay considering Aerys is burning High and Low born alike... possible but not likely.

[Ygrain]

1 hour ago, Chris Mormont said:

But why did he want their heads?  Because after Lyanna was kidnapped, Brandon went to Kings Landing demanding Rhaegar.  He is then arrested, and Rickard Stark is summoned and both are killed by Aerys.  After which Aerys demands Ned and Rob's heads because he doesn't want them to call their banners and seek revenge on him and Rhaegar.  He didn't just wake up one morning and say, I want Ned and Rob's heads, Lyanna's kidnapping started the chain of events.  So I am not wrong.

You said they fought to get Lyanna back, and that was not correct. No banners were called after her kidnapping - it was at the beginning of the causative chain but not the reason they fought.

1 hour ago, Chris Mormont said:

Elia was his daughter in law, she wasn't brought to KL against her will.  She married into the family and that marriage formed an alliance with Dorne.  As for Jamie and Tywin, yes, keeping Jamie close was as good as having a hostage.

Wasn't she? Last time we hear of her, she was on DS with her newborn son. I don't think she went to live with her cray-cray father-in-law who had been saying nasty things about her daughter of her free will, and when Aerys reminded Lewyn Martell that he had Elia, he did act as if she was a hostage.

31 minutes ago, Khal Varys said:

but it's also possible that Aerys only learned of Lyanna's disappearance via Brandon's accusation of kidnapping.

That's indeed state in the app, IIRC. That when Aerys learned from Brandon about the reason of the fuss, he got angry and wanted to summon Rhaegar to explain himself, except that Rhaegar couldn't be found.

31 minutes ago, Khal Varys said:

 It is then also possible that Aerys didn't know of the actual relationship between Lyanna and Rhaegar, but that doesn't mean he too didn't make assumptions.  It's possible Aerys' view of that relationship wasn't the issue that precipitated him killing Brandon.  It was that a non Targaryen lord challenged the crown and demanded the crown prince's life be subject to risk simply on the accusation with no proof.  That was incredibly rash and while I don't condone Aerys' actions in the least, his demeanor wasn't a mystery, he was cruel and unpredictable.  

It was gallantly foolish :-)

31 minutes ago, Khal Varys said:

It's individual interpretation but I believe Aerys called for Ned's head as a pre-emptive move, but Robert is odd and to me suggests he represents Aerys' paranoia due to the relationship developed between the two at the Eerie.  

Robert was Lyanna's betrothed, it was quite logical that he wouldn't sit by watching the Starks executed and his betrothed taken by another.

 

31 minutes ago, Khal Varys said:

 Aerys is acting absolutely like a madman and I'm supposed to believe Elia had free reign to leave or chose to stay considering Aerys is burning High and Low born alike... possible but not likely.

We are told that Elia wanted to leave for DS but Aerys wouldn't let her, so here you go her freedom of movement. 

[The Twinslayer]

2 hours ago, Universal Sword Donor said:

Gavrilo Prinzip shot Archduke Franz Ferdninand, which is generally regarded as the cause of WW1. Do we want to blame the person who manufactured the faulty grenade or the cook who make his lunch instead?

Franz Ferdinand's assassination was the trigger for a war that would have happened anyway, eventually.  The European great powers were armed to the teeth with rival alliances set up in such a way that any war was sure to be a world war and several crises took place in the years leading up to 1914 that could have led to war.  Also, the war did not start immediately after the assassination.  Franz Ferdinand died, Austria/Hungary demanded the right to send its people in to Serbia to investigate the Black Hand, the Serbians refused, Austria/Hungary went in anyway, and the Russians went to war to defend Serbia.  If Austria/Hungary had not demanded the right to occupy Serbia, or if Russia had stepped aside and let Austria/Hungary do that, war could have been avoided (at least, for another year or two).  

The causes of Robert's rebellion are similar.  House Targaryen conquered Westeros with dragons, and once the dragons were gone, the later kings' hold on the 7 kingdoms was much weaker.  They almost lost the throne during the first Blackfyre rebellion and their hold on some of the kingdoms was weakened after that to the point that one of his Lords even kidnapped Aerys and held him hostage.  And Aerys went mad, which surely led some of the high lords to consider deposing him or even seeking independence.  

That is the background for what happened after the year of the false spring.  Any one of the subsequent events can be considered a trigger (as much as the assassination of Franz Ferdinand triggered the great war).  Rhaegar's kidnapping of Lyanna was a sufficient justification for both the Starks and the Barratheons to rebel (indeed, we know that a prior Lord Barratheon had rebelled in the past over a broken betrothal).  It does not matter if Lyanna wanted to go with Rhaegar or not, in Westeros she did not have the right to make that choice.  

We know what happened next.  Robert vowed to kill Rhaegar for what he had done to Lyanna.  That was tantamount to a declaration of war and may explain why Aerys called for Robert's head (just as he killed Brandon after Brandon made a similar threat).  At the same time, Aerys murdered Lord Rickard without cause.  That gave every high lord reason to rebel -- a king who will kill one high lord without justification can't be trusted not to pick the others off one by one.  And, Aerys killed several other lords' sons and heirs at the same time, including Jon Arryn's heir, which gave Lord Jon cause to rebel.  

All of that (except calling for Robert's head) happened before Aerys demanded the heads of Robert and Ned.  So ask this question:  if Aerys had stopped with killing Rickard, Brandon, Elbert Arryn, and the other sons and heirs, but he had not taken the next step and called for Ned's and Robert's heads, would the rebellion still have happened?  

I think the answer has to be yes.  Robb went to war against Joffrey because Joffrey executed Ned even though Ned confessed to committing treason.  Ned would have done no less to avenge his own father.  We know that Robert was ready to go to war over Lyanna -- he took a vow to kill Rhaegar over the abduction.  And Jon would have three reasons to go to war -- to avenge Elbert and to back up Robert and Ned.  

And then consider this.  After Ned died, Robb was summoned to King's Landing, ostensibly to swear fealty to Joffrey.  But he and Cat both knew that if he answered the summons he would never leave King's Landing alive.  But, just like Ned, he did not go to war because the king had summoned him.  He went to war because the king had killed his father.  

So I think that of all of the causes of Robert's rebellion, Aerys' call for Robert and Ned to be killed was probably the least important.  All of the conditions were in place for a rebellion long before that, and once Rhaegar took Lyanna, war was inevitable.   

[Universal Sword Donor]

Just now, The Twinslayer said:

So I think that of all of the causes of Robert's rebellion, Aerys' call for Robert and Ned to be killed was probably the least important.  All of the conditions were in place for a rebellion long before that, and once Rhaegar took Lyanna, war was inevitable.   

It literally can't be. That was the only thing that made anyone go to war. The conditions were in place long before that but no one did anything. Says everything we need to know.

[The Twinslayer]

4 hours ago, Universal Sword Donor said:

It literally can't be. That was the only thing that made anyone go to war. The conditions were in place long before that but no one did anything. Says everything we need to know.

If you want to be literal, Ned says he went to war to stop the murder of children.    Given that he was 18 and Robert was older, he is not talking about the two of the them.

More to the point, what do you think would have happened if everything stayed the same except that Aerys had not called for Ned's and Robert's heads?  I think the north, the storm lands and the Vale would have risen in rebellion over the kidnapping of Lyanna (Robert vowed to kill Rhaegar for that) and the deaths of Rickard and Elbert.  Do you think that after all of that, Robert, Ned and Jon would have just gone home as though nothing had happened?  

[elder brother jonothor dar]

8 hours ago, The Twinslayer said:

I think the answer has to be yes.  Robb went to war against Joffrey because Joffrey executed Ned even though Ned confessed to committing treason.  Ned would have done no less to avenge his own father.  We know that Robert was ready to go to war over Lyanna -- he took a vow to kill Rhaegar over the abduction.  And Jon would have three reasons to go to war -- to avenge Elbert and to back up Robert and Ned.  

And then consider this.  After Ned died, Robb was summoned to King's Landing, ostensibly to swear fealty to Joffrey.  But he and Cat both knew that if he answered the summons he would never leave King's Landing alive.  But, just like Ned, he did not go to war because the king had summoned him.  He went to war because the king had killed his father.  

What was Rob doing with his banner men south of the Neck before he when to war?

The rebellion started when Jon Arryn calls his banners he does this only when Ned and Robert's head are called for.  I do believe even with all the deaths to lords war could have been avoided as a grand council of high lords would be very likley to want Rhaegar to depose of his father asap.

Everyone had seen the Mad King for themselves now he's going around killing nobility 

[Prof. Cecily]

12 hours ago, Ygrain said:

 

13 hours ago, Khal Varys said:

but it's also possible that Aerys only learned of Lyanna's disappearance via Brandon's accusation of kidnapping.

That's indeed state in the app, IIRC. That when Aerys learned from Brandon about the reason of the fuss, he got angry and wanted to summon Rhaegar to explain himself, except that Rhaegar couldn't be found.

Now that's a most interesting point.

I don't have the app and I thank you for sharing this, @Ygrain

 

[The Twinslayer]

7 hours ago, elder brother jonothor dar said:

What was Rob doing with his banner men south of the Neck before he when to war?

The rebellion started when Jon Arryn calls his banners he does this only when Ned and Robert's head are called for.  I do believe even with all the deaths to lords war could have been avoided as a grand council of high lords would be very likley to want Rhaegar to depose of his father asap.

Everyone had seen the Mad King for themselves now he's going around killing nobility 

Robb called his banners to rescue Ned.  He declared independence when Ned was killed.  That does not suggest that Ned would go quietly to a great council.  Also, in AGOT, when he is planning to call a great council, he is counting on Stannis to come "with all his power."  With his sister kidnapped and his father and brother murdered, Ned would have no choice but to call his banners.    

Anyway, I am just trying to envision the great council you are suggesting.  The context is that Rhaegar has disappeared with Lyanna, Brandon and Robert have called for Rhaegar's death, and Aerys has killed Lord Rickard, Brandon, Kyle Royce (and his father), Elbert Arryn, and Jeffory Mallister (and his father).  

Lord Connington:  Aerys is mad.  He killed all these lords for no reason.  We should depose him and make Rhaegar the king.

Lord Whent:  I agree.  Rhaeagar should be king.  He is a good man who plays a harp, reads books, and does not go to brothels very frequently.

Lord Lannister:  Where is Rhaegar?  Does anyone know if he is even alive?

Lord Stark:  Where's my sister?

Lord Barratheon:  Where is my fiance?

Lord Connington:  Last time I saw her, she was with Rhaegar.

Lord Barratheon:  I vow to kill him for that!  

Lord Connington:  You can't.  We have to make him king!

Lord Stark:  Where's my sister?

Prince Oberyn:  Speaking of sisters, Rhaegar kind of insulted mine.

Enter Prince Lewyn:  Oberyn, His Grace has sent me with a message.  He wants Dorne to remember that he holds your sister Elia hostage against Dorne's good behavior.  He asked me to tell you this as gracelessly as possible. 

Lord Connington:  Don't worry.  Jaime Lannister is there.  He has sworn to protect Elia.

Lord Whent:  And her children.  Them, too.

Lord Lannister:  Wait, where is my son?

Prince Lewyn:  Don't worry.  He is with the king.  Aerys won't let Jaime out of his sight. 

Lord Lannister:  What?  I am now afraid of what Aerys will do if I try to depose him.

Lord Tyrell:  I will support King Aerys to the bitter end, and well beyond!

Lord Stark:  Where's my sister?

Lord Reed:  Where is she?

Lord Karstark:  Where is the Lady Lyanna?  Stark and Karstark are one blood!

Lord Umber:  Where is Lord Rickard's little girl?

Lord Dustin:  Where is she?

Lord Ryswell:  Is she the one who is half a horse?

Lord Manderly:  The North remembers!  My sons are all safe at home, so we don't need to play a mummer's farce.  We want vengeance.  Vengeance for our murdered lord, for his murdered heir, for his stolen daughter!  

Lords Cerwyn, Mormont and the other Northern houses:  The North remembers!

Lord Connington:  As soon as we find Rhaegar, we can make him king and then he'll give you back the Lady Lyanna.  

Lord Arryn:  I doubt that.  My heir Elbert was killed for trying to get her back!  

Lord Royce:  And my brother.  And his son.

Lord Mallister:  Mine too!

Lord Tully:  And my daughter's fiance!

Lord Glover:  Where is Ethan?  

Prince Lewyn:  He's with Elia and Jaime, under King Aerys' watchful eye.

Prince Oberyn:  What?  Now I am afraid of what Aerys might do if we try to depose him.

Lord Lannister:  Me too!

Lord Glover:  Me too!

Lord Stark:  Where's my sister?

Lord Barratheon:  Stannis, fetch us some ale.  We are going to drink every time Ned says "sister." 

Lord Connington:  Where is Rhaegar?

Prince Lewyn:  He cannot be found.

Lord Stark:  Where's my sister?

Lord Connington:  Let's vote!  I vote for Rhaegar, as soon as we can find him.

Lord Whent:  Me too!  If he is still alive.

Lord Tyrell (and all the lords of the Reach):  We vote for Aerys.

Lord Lannister:  I vote we do nothing until my son is free.

Prince Oberyn:  I vote we do nothing until my sister is free.

Lord Glover:  I vote we do nothing until Ethan is free.

Lord Frey:  I need to think about this.

Lord Greyjoy:  Let's fight!

Prince Lewyn:  Well, it looks like the balance of power in this Great Council lies with Lords Stark, Tully, Arryn and Barratheon.  How do you vote, my lords?

Lord Stark:  Where's my sister...

Lord Barratheon:  I vowed to kill Rhaegar for what he did to her...

Lord Arryn:  Hey, Robert, don't you have some Targaryen blood...

Lord Tully:  Hey, Ned, you aren't betrothed to anyone, are you...