Ragtag Bands of Misfits

[sweetsunray]

2 hours ago, Raisin' Bran said:

This is so much info to process. So I will only comment on a small part. I never believed that Varys was a FM nor a SM. Varys spent time as a child learning to be a thief. Thieves sometimes do learn the necessity of killing and become proficient at it. By my line of reasoning, Varys' training as a thief gave him to tools to take out Pycelle and Kevan.

I agree.

[Nevets]

1 hour ago, Ser Loras The Gay said:

A thief who can use a crossbow? He at least had to train with one before. And at least he had to train by the time he was the spymaster already. A crossbow is not that easy to use since the recharging part you need a specific tool and need to know the techinique. So I don't know. If he had used a dagger, okay, i'll side with you.

We saw a bunch of children wielding crossbows at the orphanage in Feast, so I doubt it is difficult to learn or find someone to teach you.

[The Bastards Giant Friend]

4 hours ago, Nevets said:

We saw a bunch of children wielding crossbows at the orphanage in Feast, so I doubt it is difficult to learn or find someone to teach you.

I agree with this. It would be easier to use a crossbow than a bow. And you would have a better chance of success with one than with a dagger

[Ser Loras The Gay]

15 hours ago, Nevets said:

We saw a bunch of children wielding crossbows at the orphanage in Feast, so I doubt it is difficult to learn or find someone to teach you.

I guess you're right. He could've sneaked someday to learn it. And he was in Essos for quite sometime.

 

11 hours ago, The Bastards Giant Friend said:

I agree with this. It would be easier to use a crossbow than a bow. And you would have a better chance of success with one than with a dagger

Yeah, bows are harder than crossbows, you're right as well. It's completely possible.

 

[Castellan]

Interesting OP.

I think that a tiny ragtag bag you missed is the little group round Brienne - Pod and Hyle. This may be the nucleus of a bigger band. 

[sweetsunray]

41 minutes ago, Castellan said:

Interesting OP.

I think that a tiny ragtag bag you missed is the little group round Brienne - Pod and Hyle. This may be the nucleus of a bigger band. 

They are on their way to become members of the ragtag of outlaws

[Castellan]

1 minute ago, sweetsunray said:

They are on their way to become members of the ragtag of outlaws

Maybe Brienne will take it over.

[sweetsunray]

1 minute ago, Castellan said:

Maybe Brienne will take it over.

I doubt it. If Brienne were to slay LS, the ragtag of outlaws would disband. Brienne is not a character that inspires a large group to follow her. Brienne doesn't even have a "cause" to make people rally behind her. Any cause in her arc would be another person - for Renly, for Catelyn, for Jaime, for Sansa or for Arya. Basically that would make people not rally behind her, but behind the people she fights or quests for. The ragtag of outlaws is not going to rally behind "for Jaime". The ragtag of outlaws certainly does not care for Renly. And killing LS would be in conflict to make Catelyn, Sansa or Arya a defensible cause. 

Her ragtag member arc is about being the knight fighting or questing for another person, not leading or rallying. That makes her a Dunk in the sense of a kingsguard or queensguard, or a female counterpart of Jaime's past role if it involves her slaying LS. She may very well end up slaying LS. Slaying the person she vowed to protect is already part of her arc, even though it was a lie - it is believed by many that she murdered Renly, while she was his kingsguard. But slaying does not make her a leader.

[Castellan]

Hmm I agree not likely. And I think LS will be slaying Jaime and/or Brienne, although I hope they will be revived afterwards. Anyway, thats not the point of this thread so I'll desist.

 

[sweetsunray]

30 minutes ago, Castellan said:

Hmm I agree not likely. And I think LS will be slaying Jaime and/or Brienne, although I hope they will be revived afterwards. Anyway, thats not the point of this thread so I'll desist.

 

Actually, it is the point of this thread to explore the role of a member of a ragtag band, so you were within the OP's topic

[sweetsunray]

Ragtag of Exiles member, Illyrio Mopatis - the fat Pentosi golden goose

Let’s get our ragtag teeth into our Pentosi merchant. Just as with Varys I will discuss the apparent ragtag roles Illyrio has. But unlike Varys I will try to make a character and motive assessment for Illyrio, as we are given better clues for it. I will then use that assessment against the theories that Illyrio might be a Blackfyre or Brightflame descendant and propose my own conclusion.

Here are Illyrio’s obvious roles for Team Aegon:

• ·       The Man with the Plan
• ·         The Fat Guy
• ·         The Sponsor - Golden Goose

The Man with the Plan

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“[…]Very little of what the fat man has anticipated has come to pass." Griff slapped the hilt of his longsword with a gloved hand. "I have danced to the fat man's pipes for years, Lemore. What has it availed us? […]”

[…] "Which plan?" said Tristan Rivers. "The fat man's plan? The one that changes every time the moon turns?  […]"I have had enough of Illyrio's plans.” (aDwD, Jon Connington I, the Lost Lord)

Towards midway aDwD, Aegon and Jon Connington became the leaders of the ragtag and are now on their own plan. But both Tristan Rivers, Harry Strickland, Jon Connington and Lemore also discuss the previous plans as being Illyrio’s. And even as Arya overhears Varys and Illyrio discuss plans beneath the Red Keep, it is Illyrio who makes the demands more than Varys. In that respect, Varys is more an executioner of the behind-the-screen manipulations, while Illyrio is the director.

Since our very first introduction to Illyrio through Daenerys, Jorah Mormont’s doubts in aCoK and aSoS, Tyrion’s suspicions in aDwD and Illyrio holding back on the Aegon reveal, we suspect Illyrio is deeply dishonest and devious.

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Jorah Mormont: "Illyrio believes in no cause but Illyrio. Gluttons are greedy men as a rule, and magisters are devious. Illyrio Mopatis is both. […]" (aCoK, Daenerys III)

We all note that Aegon was kept hidden for close to two decades, taken care of and tutored by a set of adults in a manner that Viserys and Dany were not. Hence we reasonably suspect that something is setting Aegon apart in Illyrio’s eyes from the other two Targaryen survivors.

 

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[Tyrion] pointed at Illyrio. "For that matter, why would you? Slavery may be forbidden by the laws of Pentos, yet you have a finger in that trade as well, and maybe a whole hand. And yet you conspire for the dragon queen, and not against her. Why? What do you hope to gain from Queen Daenerys?"

"Are we back to that again? You are a persistent little man." Illyrio gave a laugh and slapped his belly. "As you will. The Beggar King swore that I should be his master of coin, and a lordly lord as well. Once he wore his golden crown, I should have my choice of castles … even Casterly Rock, if I desired." […] Illyrio bit the egg in half. "I told you, my little friend, not all that a man does is done for gain. Believe as you wish, but even fat old fools like me have friends, and debts of affection to repay." […] The magister waggled his fat fingers. "Some contracts are writ in ink, and some in blood. I say no more." (aDwD, Tyrion II)

Even though Viserys promised Illyrio  a position as master of coin, a lordship and castle of Illyrio’s choosing, it is not greed or financial gain that motivates Illyrio, but

•         Friendship
•         A debt of affection
•         Blood

And that affection and blood is heavily hinted to be Aegon.

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"How fares our lad?" asked Illyrio as the chests were being secured. Tyrion counted six, oaken chests with iron hasps. […]"There is a gift for the boy in one of the chests. Some candied ginger. He was always fond of it." Illyrio sounded oddly sad. "I thought I might continue on to Ghoyan Drohe with you. A farewell feast before you start downriver …" […]"Good fortune," Illyrio called after them. "Tell the boy I am sorry that I will not be with him for his wedding. I will rejoin you in Westeros. That I swear, by my sweet Serra's hands."

The last that Tyrion Lannister saw of Illyrio Mopatis, the magister was standing by his litter in his brocade robes, his massive shoulders slumped. As his figure dwindled in their dust, the lord of cheese looked almost small. (aDwD, Tyrion II)

For anyone who has read about fAegon theories, I’m only repeating what many have argued before: the above quotes hint heavily that Aegon is Illyrio’s son by Serra. The “debt of affection” combined with a vow on Serra’s petrified hands suggests that Illyrio promised Serra something about their son as she lay dying, and thus that Serra must be some descendant with Targaryen blood. And I agree with that. The above behavior is too peculiar, too personal towards “the lad” and “Serra”. 

Here people usually insert a Blackfyre plot, with either Illyrio, Serra or Varys being a Blackfyre, because they do not believe a man would do all that for a son and a dead wife, or that his friend Varys would help him if it is not a Blackfyre revenge. I however think there is a fallacy at work here. When a character is not completely on the up-and-up, people quickly suspect that character must be completely false. It becomes an either-or proposition. But there is no reason to assume that because Illyrio is somewhat false, that he cannot be mostly honest.

Of course Illyrio could have loved Serra very much and if she had a drop of Targaryen blood, even if it is not Blackfyre blood, then of course he could be motivated to help his son ultimately on the Iron Throne. I find personal attachment to a dead wife a valid motivation.

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"A maiden? I know the way of that." Illyrio thrust his right hand up his left sleeve and drew out a silver locket. Inside was a painted likeness of a woman with big blue eyes and pale golden hair streaked by silver. "Serra. I found her in a Lysene pillow house and brought her home to warm my bed, but in the end I wed her. Me, whose first wife had been a cousin of the Prince of Pentos. The palace gates were closed to me thereafter, but I did not care. The price was small enough, for Serra."

"How did she die?" Tyrion knew that she was dead; no man spoke so fondly of a woman who had abandoned him. (aDwD, Tyrion II)

Illyrio’s actions and choices are a reverse parallel to Ned Stark’s story with Jon and Lyanna. Ned Stark sacrificed his honor by claiming Jon for his own bastard son, with the intent to keep him safe and as far away from the throne as possible, being against a Targaryen dynasty, despite the often debated possibility that Jon Snow may have been a trueborn son to a “second wife” in a polygamous marriage with Rhaegar, the heir to the throne.

Meanwhile, Illyrio sacrifices his personal father-son relationship by declaring Aegon to be Rhaegar’s trueborn son, hiding him for years with the express intent to put him on the throne, even though he would be the very last in line, despite his drop of Targaryen blood, especially if he comes from my proposed bastard line from Saera Targaryen, the penultimate daughter of Jaehaerys I who lived and fled two hundred years ago. If my proposal that Serra is a descendant of a bastard born to Princess Saera Targaryen at Lys is true, a bastard descendant of Brightflame, or a descendant of the legitimized Blackfyre or Bittersteel, and Ben Plumm would come before Aegon.

At any regard, I agree that Aegon is most likely Illyrio’s son and that his devious intent is to get him on the Iron Throne, while in a dynastic sense Aegon is no heir to it. Of course wanting to put your son on the Iron Throne, not just by conquest alone but also as true heir of the Targaryen Dynasty, requires an intricate plan and quite a few pawns. Aside from swords, armies, a weakened Westeros ready to turn its back on Baratheons, Starks and Lannisters, and acquiring natural Westerosi allies, one would need people standing united with Aegon who make Aegon’s claim that he is Rhaegar’s son a credible one.

Jon Connington is one such person. He fell for it, hook-line and sinker. But he was not the sole one meant to perform this role.

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The captain-general looked as if someone had slapped his face. "Has the sun curdled your brains, Flowers? We need the girl. We need the marriage. If Daenerys accepts our princeling and takes him for her consort, the Seven Kingdoms will do the same. Without her, the lords will only mock his claim and brand him a fraud and a pretender.[…]” (aDwD, The Lost Lord)

Harry Strickland points out in aDwD that the person who would give Aegon the most and best credibility is another Targaryen. But when Viserys was still alive he would have made Aegon even more credible that Danerys. If a male Targaryen claimant to the throne conquers Westeros together with Aegon, no one would doubt Aegon’s identity. The known, living Targaryens, Viserys and Daenerys, were the means to make Westeros believe Aegon is Rhaegar’s son.

This explains why Viserys and Dany were not hidden by Illyrio all those years, but left to wander from Free City to Free City. If Viserys and Daenerys had gone into hiding, had been raised along with Aegon on the Shy Maid and re-emerged with him, Westeros would believe all three to be imposters. Varys and Illyrio needed continued reports and witness accounts of Viserys and Daenerys being alive and feasted in Essos. Nor could Illyrio visibly shelter them at Pentos for years, without making Robert extremely suspicious and anxious. Robert’s desire to see them dead was allayed for so long exactly because nobody openly supported either Viserys nor Daenerys.

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"You can't get your hands on this one, can you?" he said quietly.

The king's mouth twisted in a bitter grimace. "No, gods be cursed. Some pox-ridden Pentoshi cheesemonger had her brother and her walled up on his estate with pointy-hatted eunuchs all around them, and now he's handed them over to the Dothraki. I should have had them both killed years ago, when it was easy to get at them, but Jon was as bad as you. More fool I, I listened to him." (aGoT, Eddard II)

Now, I do advise to take the “dire straits” of Viserys and Daenerys with a grain of salt. While Viserys and Daenerys moved a lot, it was not until the last several years that they became “beggars”. They lived safely and happily in Braavos in the house with the red door until Dany is five. They were welcomed in the homes and at tables of Magisters (Myr, Lys), archons (Tyrosh) and merchant princes (Volantis) – the luxurious life of exiled royalty, not the harsh survival of street urchins having to steal and hide in sewers. In comparison, Aegon has never seen the inside of a palace, never lived amongst the rich and powerful of the Free Cities (to his recollection).

I am quite certain that Viserys himself caused the loss of funds and closing of doors. The vain young man would have spent money on the wrong things, rather than live economically and hire tutors. Likewise, he was an easy mark for all sorts of people to overcharge him for transport. Meanwhile his insufferable entitlement and volatility would not have been shrugged away anymore by the archons, Magisters and merchant princes, the older and more physically dangerous he became. Would you take Viserys in if you had a daughter about to flower or a son near his age? I didn’t think so.

We know for a certainty that Robert never sent assassins until aGoT, and Dany never saw the assassins that Viserys claimed were after them. On the one hand Viserys’ paranoia surely prompted them to flee often and unnecessary. On the other hand, at times I can recognize it would have been in Varys’s interest to have Viserys flee to a new Free City, if only to allay Robert’s suspicions and eventually steer them in the direction of Pentos when the time was right. 

So, when is the timing right? When “Rheagar’s son” is close to becoming an adult, and Dany is soon to flower. Rhaegar’s son Aegon was born toward the end of 281 AC or early 282 AC. That would make him officially 16 either toward the end of 297 or at the start of 298 AC. Dany was born in 284 AC, making her thirteen in 287 AC, the age at which she is expected to flower. Since their last coin they got for the crown was spent, the danger that Viserys would have Dany sell her body for a passage on a ship or to pay for the rent of a room (after taking her maidenhead himself first) was imminent.

 

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The fat man grew pensive. "Daenerys was half a child when she came to me, yet fairer even than my second wife, so lovely I was tempted to claim her for myself. Such a fearful, furtive thing, however, I knew I should get no joy from coupling with her. Instead I summoned a bedwarmer and fucked her vigorously until the madness passed. If truth be told, I did not think Daenerys would survive for long amongst the horselords."

"That did not stop you selling her to Khal Drogo …"

"Dothraki neither buy nor sell. Say rather that her brother Viserys gave her to Drogo to win the khal's friendship. A vain young man, and greedy. Viserys lusted for his father's throne, but he lusted for Daenerys too, and was loath to give her up. The night before the princess wed he tried to steal into her bed, insisting that if he could not have her hand, he would claim her maidenhead. Had I not taken the precaution of posting guards upon her door, Viserys might have undone years of planning." (aDwD, Tyrion II)

The last paragraph suggests that the marriage between Khal Drogo and Daenerys had been planned for years. We do know that Drogo was given a manse by the Magisters of Pentos and that Drogo was in Pentos already before his khalasar arrived outside the city’s walls, upon his invitation. And while Illyrio claims that Viserys could have undone years of planning if he had taken Dany’s maidenhead the night before her wedding, apparently the same argument is not what prevented Illyrio from claiming her for himself.  Would the latter not undo those same years of planning? Illyrio explains why he did not marry her himself - Dany disappointed him. He saw a fearful, furtive girl and he did not expect her to survive hardships. 

The marriage to Khal Drogo was not a certainty yet until Drogo actually met and approved of Daenerys as his khaleesi. Hence, there was always room for Illyrio to call it off. However, to throw away an army of Dothraki, the girl would require to be a charismatic princess able to inspire whole armies to rally behind her – a Rhaenys or Visenya Targaryen. And when Dany first arrived at Illyrio’s manse she seemed no such inspiring princess. And thus Illyrio deemed an army for a bride a better choice.

You might wonder that since Illyrio means for and expects Dany to marry Aegon in aDwD, that surely it would have been better if Illyrio had wed her to Aegon in 297 already. I would say, that when Illyrio tells Tyrion he considered keeping her, that Illyrio is lying about “for myself”, but indeed considered her as bride for Aegon. However, not only did Illyrio and Varys require Dothraki screamers and the Golden Company for an invasion. They also required allies in Westeros to rebel against the Baratheon dynasty. The natural allies would have been Dorne and the Reach, who both have marriageable daughters to formalize an alliance – Arianne Martell and Margaery Tyrell. Varys and Illyrio would have no reason to interfere with Doran Martell’s marriage pact for Arianne and Viserys, who were of an age and only distant cousins. While Margaery and Aegon would be the logical pairing, once Mace Tyrell was alerted of Aegon’s “survival”.

Why the Dothraki? After all, Illyrio is rich enough to buy or hire sellsword companies several times over. Except he can't because of Pentosi laws impuned on Pentos by Braavos - they cannot have more than 20 warships, no standing army, not allowed to hire sellswords, make contracts with free companies. How do you gain an army then without provoking Braavos? By arranging a wedding, and what the bridegroom gives the bride's brother in the future out of gratitude cannot be called "buying" or "hiring" or "contracting". 

And thus yes, I am saying that Illyrio and Varys originally planned for Viserys to live and conquer  Westeros and the throne in a joint effort with Aegon.  This is confirmed by Jon Connington’s words to Lemore in the aDwD chapter the Lost Lord, as well as Tristan Rivers’ words about Illyrio’s plans insofar the Golden Company know of it.

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Lemore: "Illyrio could not have been expected to know that the girl would choose to remain at Slaver's Bay."

Jon Connington: "No more than he knew that the Beggar King would die young, or that Khal Drogo would follow him into the grave.[…]”

Tristan Rivers: “[…] First Viserys Targaryen was to join us with fifty thousand Dothraki screamers at his back.[…]” (aDwD, The Lost Lord, Jon Connington I)

Neither Jon Connington nor the Golden Company’s captains and captain-general are people to whom Aegon’s existence is a secret. Illyrio would not have told the Golden Company to prepare to come to Pentos and join a Dothraki army, if that was not the intent.

It also fits with Strong Belwas’ claim that Illyrio wept when he learned of the news that Viserys was dead.

 

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"Magister Illyrio has protected me in the past. Strong Belwas says that he wept when he heard my brother was dead." (aSoS, Daenerys I)

And it matches with Illyrio’s efforts in trying to dissuade Viserys in joining the khalasar.

 

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Magister Illyrio had urged him to wait in Pentos, had offered him the hospitality of his manse, but Viserys would have none of it. He would stay with Drogo until the debt had been paid, until he had the crown he had been promised. "And if he tries to cheat me, he will learn to his sorrow what it means to wake the dragon," Viserys had vowed, laying a hand on his borrowed sword. Illyrio had blinked at that and wished him good fortune. (aGoT, Daenerys III)

Illyrio had plans for Viserys in Pentos, and even when Viserys went with Khal Drogo, he expected him back alive with 50000 Dothraki screamers and had sent word to the Golden Company to be ready to join them in order to conquer Westeros together.

Now, you may have suspected Illyrio used reverse-psychology to make Viserys go with the Dothraki and get himself killed, but since Dany was married to Khal Drogo and Illyrio did not expect her to survive the experience, Viserys’ death would defeat the purpose of having a famously known living Targaryen beside Aegon to boost Aegon’s credibility. Worse, once Viserys is dead, Khal Drogo has no reason at all to gift his khalasar to the Targaryen cause, since he already gifted Viserys with a crown of molten gold of his own belt.

 

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"Yes," said Mormont, "but did he weep for Viserys, or for the plans he had made with him?" (aDwD, Daenerys I)

Illyrio wept when he learned Viserys had died, because he lost both Targaryens who could give Aegon credibility and there would be no Dothraki force to help invade. All the careful years of planning had gone up in a puff of smoke.

So, why was Viserys to stay in Pentos? I propose that Jon Connington was to show up with the miraculously surviving Aegon in Pentos, while Viserys remained as Illyrio’s guest in his manse waiting upon the return of Khal Drogo’s gift for his bride. With the khalasar journeying from Pentos to Vaes Dothrak and back, it would take about a year, and thus it would be the end of 298 AC before the armies could be gathered to invade Westeros. Meanwhile there would be ample time for Viserys and Aegon to become “friends” and conquer Westeros as a united front.

I also propose that with such a combo, they intended for Viserys to believe they regarded Viserys the rightful heir of Aerys II, as the Mad King “willed” it. Not even the way Aegon was raised as Young Griff would appear suspect to Viserys. All Viserys would see is that his nephew led the life of a fisherman, taken care of by an exiled failure of a lord, some runaway septa, a failed apprentice of the Citadel and a wannabe knight. Viserys would find the notion alone that this ragtag intends for Aegon to usurp him utter nonsense and laughable. It is far more likely that Viserys would wrap his arm around Aegon’s shoulder and tell him, “I’ll show you how to wield a sword for real instead of that hedge knight of yours!” than that he would have regarded Aegon a threat.  

So, how did Varys and Illyrio intend to deal with Viserys III Targaryen, if their original plan had succeeded that far? Well, they would have dealt with him the Pentosi way.

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"What one king does, another may undo. In Pentos we have a prince, my friend. He presides at ball and feast and rides about the city in a palanquin of ivory and gold. Three heralds go before him with the golden scales of trade, the iron sword of war, and the silver scourge of justice. On the first day of each new year he must deflower the maid of the fields and the maid of the seas." Illyrio leaned forward, elbows on the table. "Yet should a crop fail or a war be lost, we cut his throat to appease the gods and choose a new prince from amongst the forty families." (aDwD, Tyrion I)

Aegon would have been prince of Dragonstone, member of the small council along with Illyrio, Varys and Jon Connington. They would have let Viserys III deal justice to the Lannisters, Baratheons and Starks for their “crimes” of rebellion, while the small council would have urged for mercy on the rebels’ children, taken as hostages or given to the faith. Cersei’s children would be exposed as bastards. They let Viserys reign several years, until a war or battle is lost or a crop failed, and Viserys ends up losing his head (or die in a hunting accident) and the far more benevolent Aegon who advocated to spare the children of the rebels, including Cersei’s bastards, would succeed him. Aegon VI would send the Dothraki back across the Narrow Sea. And if Dany still lived, she could be wed to Aegon in a polygamous marriage, rescued from the husband her brother sold her to.

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Lemore: "Illyrio could not have been expected to know that the girl would choose to remain at Slaver's Bay."

Tristan Rivers:” […] Then the Beggar King was dead, and it was to be the sister, a pliable young child queen who was on her way to Pentos with three new-hatched dragons. Instead the girl turns up on Slaver's Bay and leaves a string of burning cities in her wake, and the fat man decides we should meet her by Volantis. Now that plan is in ruins as well.” (aDwD, The Lost Lord, Jon Connington I)

The first indication in the series that Illyrio and Varys are indeed working for what would appear a Targaryen restoration of three Targaryens in the eyes of Westeros and everybody else involved are Illyrio’s gift of the three dragon eggs.
 

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Magister Illyrio murmured a command, and four burly slaves hurried forward, bearing between them a great cedar chest bound in bronze. When she opened it, she found piles of the finest velvets and damasks the Free Cities could produce … and resting on top, nestled in the soft cloth, three huge eggs. Dany gasped. They were the most beautiful things she had ever seen, each different than the others, patterned in such rich colors that at first she thought they were crusted with jewels, and so large it took both of her hands to hold one. She lifted it delicately, expecting that it would be made of some fine porcelain or delicate enamel, or even blown glass, but it was much heavier than that, as if it were all of solid stone. The surface of the shell was covered with tiny scales, and as she turned the egg between her fingers, they shimmered like polished metal in the light of the setting sun. One egg was a deep green, with burnished bronze flecks that came and went depending on how Dany turned it. Another was pale cream streaked with gold. The last was black, as black as a midnight sea, yet alive with scarlet ripples and swirls. "What are they?" she asked, her voice hushed and full of wonder.

"Dragon's eggs, from the Shadow Lands beyond Asshai," said Magister Illyrio. "The eons have turned them to stone, yet still they burn bright with beauty." (aGoT, Daenerys II)

"They were not given to me to sell," Dany told him. (aGoT, Daenerys X)

They were not given to sell, not for sellswords, not for Dothraki screamers, not for ships, not to live wealthily ever after. Illyrio bought them as a typical symbol to bolster and unite the claim of three Targaryens. The Rogue Prince relates several times how traditionally each child by a Targaryen is gifted with a dragon egg to hatch.

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By royal decree, each of the Velaryon boys was presented with a dragon’s egg whilst in the cradle. Those who doubted the paternity of Rhaenyra’s sons whispered that the eggs would never hatch, but the birth in turn of three young dragons gave the lie to their words. The hatchlings were named Vermax, Arrax, and Tyraxes. (The Rogue Prince)

And the tradition was continued even after the last dragon died and no more eggs hatched.

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"Do you want a clout in the ear? There are no dragons."

"No, but there are eggs. The last dragon left a clutch of five, and they have more on Dragonstone, old ones from before the Dance. My brothers all have them too. Aerion's looks as though it's made of gold and silver, with veins of fire running through it. Mine is white and green, all swirly."

"Your dragon's egg." They put it in his cradle. Dunk was so used to Egg that sometimes he forgot Aegon was a prince. Of course they'd put a dragon egg inside his cradle. "Well, see that you don't go mentioning this egg where anyone is like to hear." (The Mystery Knight)

Three eggs and three Targaryens – Viserys, Daenerys and ultimately fAegon.

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"Fine words." Tyrion was unimpressed. "Words are wind. Who is this bloody savior?"

"A dragon with three heads." (aDwD, Tyrion I)"A dragon." The cheesemonger saw the look on his face at that, and laughed.

You may wonder why he did not give one to each Targaryen separately. Well, Viserys had already proven he could not handle money, nor recognize the true value of his mother’s crown. It would be better for Dany to be the keeper of her brother’s egg. And what would have more convincing impact once Aegon came out of hiding and joined Viserys and Danaerys – Illyrio giving a dragon egg to Aegon, or Dany giving one? The latter of course.

Though the original plan failed, but makes the conversation that Arya overheard clear. With Littlefinger’s meddling civil war was about to break out in Westeros far sooner than Varys and Illyrio had planned. Dany turned out pregnant, delaying Drogo’s return to Pentos with a khalasar until halfway through or the end of 299 AC. Ned Stark is closing in on the secret of Cersei’s children far too soon and is the king’s best friend. And Renly was about to convince Robert to set aside Cersei and marry the sole daughter of one of their two natural allies, Margaery Tyrell.

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"… found one bastard," one said. "The rest will come soon. A day, two days, a fortnight …"

"And when he learns the truth, what will he do?" a second voice asked in the liquid accents of the Free Cities.

"The gods alone know," the first voice said. […]"The fools tried to kill his son, and what's worse, they made a mummer's farce of it. He's not a man to put that aside. I warn you, the wolf and lion will soon be at each other's throats, whether we will it or no."

"Too soon, too soon," the voice with the accent complained. "What good is war now? We are not ready. Delay." […]

[…] "What would you have me do?" asked the torchbearer, a stout man in a leather half cape. […]

[…] "If one Hand can die, why not a second?" replied the man with the accent and the forked yellow beard. "You have danced the dance before, my friend." […]

"Before is not now, and this Hand is not the other," the scarred man said as they stepped out into the hall. (aGoT, Arya III)

We have confirmation in aSoS that Lysa Tully poisoned Jon Arryn for wanting to send Sweetrobin to be fostered by Stannis. But Varys knew Jon Arryn’s life was in danger, and did nothing to save him, because it got him conveniently out of the way. Illyrio’s words about dancing the dance before imo alludes to Varys’s advice to Aerys II that led to the permanent breech between Aerys and Tywin. While both Aerys and Tywin as well as Robert and Ned were friends in their youth, Ned Stark was not as arrogant, nor was Robert as suspicious of Ned.

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"Perhaps so," the forked beard replied, pausing to catch his breath after the long climb. "Nonetheless, we must have time. The princess is with child. The khal will not bestir himself until his son is born. You know how they are, these savages." […]

[…] "If he does not bestir himself soon, it may be too late," the stout man in the steel cap said. "This is no longer a game for two players, if ever it was. Stannis Baratheon and Lysa Arryn have fled beyond my reach, and the whispers say they are gathering swords around them. The Knight of Flowers writes Highgarden, urging his lord father to send his sister to court. The girl is a maid of fourteen, sweet and beautiful and tractable, and Lord Renly and Ser Loras intend that Robert should bed her, wed her, and make a new queen. Littlefinger … the gods only know what game Littlefinger is playing. Yet Lord Stark's the one who troubles my sleep. He has the bastard, he has the book, and soon enough he'll have the truth. And now his wife has abducted Tyrion Lannister, thanks to Littlefinger's meddling. Lord Tywin will take that for an outrage, and Jaime has a queer affection for the Imp. If the Lannisters move north, that will bring the Tullys in as well. Delay, you say. Make haste, I reply. Even the finest of jugglers cannot keep a hundred balls in the air forever." (aGoT, Arya III)

Robert setting aside Cersei and marrying Margaery Tyrell would conflict heavily with the plans to have Cersei’s children exposed as bastards at the appropriate time. And it certainly would mean the loss of an army of 80000 levies from the Reach that otherwise might be seduced into siding with Viserys and Aegon.

The original plan needed some adjusting, with Varys having to delay the rapidly growing conflict in Westeros, while Illyrio is to hasten events in Vaes Dothrak. First of all, Varys was to create a rift between Robert and Eddard. Varys knew about Cat’s kidnapping of Tyrion, but using that might have ended with Robert siding with Ned Stark against the Lannisters once Ned Stark revealed how the Lannisters tried to murder his son Bran. Instead he, pushes for Dany’s assassination at the Small Council. It was no secret that Robert preferred Viserys and Dany dead, but not until Jon Arryn’s death and Stannis’s departure would the small council have agreed if pushed to vote. Jon Arryn, Stannis and Barristan were always against it. Littlefinger would have followed Jon Arryn’s council on the matter, not risking being sent back to his sheep pellets. Pycelle was never the heroic man to stand up against so much opposition. And Renly was not made a member of the Small Council until well after his 16^th year in 294 AC. This is exactly how Varys managed to report on the whereabouts of Dany and Viserys for years to Robert and the Small Council without actually endangering their lives¹. But with Jon Arryn dead and Stannis at Dragonstone, Varys can sway everyone except for Barristan and Ned Stark to agree with Robert’s demand. Knowing Ned’s principles, and how the murder of children nearly fractured the friendship between Robert and Ned Stark before after the Sack of King’s Landing, Varys only has to touch on the same sore subject. Ned Stark stands by his principles and “resigns” from being Hand (just as Tywin resigned over losing his heir to the Kingsguard once) angering Robert.

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"Instead Varys will quietly let it be known that we'll make a lord of whoever does in the Targaryen girl." (aGoT, Eddard VIII)

"Tell me," she commanded as she lowered herself onto her cushions. "Was it the Usurper?"

"Yes." The knight drew out a folded parchment. "A letter to Viserys, from Magister Illyrio. Robert Baratheon offers lands and lordships for your death, or your brother's."

"My brother?" Her sob was half a laugh. "He does not know yet, does he? The Usurper owes Drogo a lordship." (aGoT, Daenerys VI)

Varys has Illyrio dispatch a message to Jorah about Robert’s reward offering for anyone who kills Viserys and/or Dany, and alert him to the assassin, the wine merchant, to foil the plot that Illyrio and Varys put together themselves. Unbeknownst to them, Viserys is dead already, crowned by molten gold, and their years of planning was about to go feet-up since Khal Drogo had no intention to cross the Narrow Sea at all anymore. But the foiled assassination attempt angers Drogo to start taking slaves to sell and acquire ships for passage towards Westeros.

Once Ned Stark had left King’s Landing, Varys likely expected Robert to side with his in-laws and this would obstruct Renly’s intentions for Margaery Tyrell. But then Jaime attacked Ned Stark’s escort recklessly in the streets of King’s Landing, prompting Robert to be sympathetic towards Ned. Luckily for Varys Cersei took care of Robert. It did mean throwing out the scheme of exposing Cersei’s children as bastards however to delay full scale civil war. That became a full scale Wot5K with Joffrey beheading Ned Stark, along with the devastating news of the death of Viserys, then Drogo and finally the disappearance of Dany into the red waste.

What a relief it must have been when Illyrio learned that Dany was alive and had hatched the three dragon eggs. The timing for a new attempt to amass Dany with Aegon and Golden Company was perfect with Robb having lost the North to the Ironborn and marrying Jeyne Westerling instead of a Frey, Renly dead, Stannis defeated on Dragonstone, and the Tyrells wanting a Queen but preferring the king not to be Joffrey. Except Dany struck out on her own, stayed in Mereen to rule and is rumored to have died after flying off with Drogon into the Dothraki Sea. Meanwhile Aegon, Jon Connington and the Golden Company have sailed West to invade and conquer Westeros, recognizing the window of opportunity with Crazy Cersei on the throne, also striking out on their own.

The Fat Guy

Just like every ragtag band has a wizard, there’s always an obese character who’s part of the group.

• ·         Samwel Tarly for the Watch
• ·         Strong Belwas in Dany’s team
• ·          Thoros of Myr with the BwB (until he loses all the weight)
• ·          Zollo “the Fat” with the Bloody Mummers
• ·         Wyman “too fat to sit his horse” Manderly for the Starks
• ·         …

And Illyrio takes that role for Aegon’s team.
 

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"Regal," Magister Illyrio said, stepping through an archway. He moved with surprising delicacy for such a massive man. Beneath loose garments of flame-colored silk, rolls of fat jiggled as he walked. (aGoT, Daenerys I)

He was no one Arya had ever seen before, she was certain of it. Grossly fat, yet he seemed to walk lightly, carrying his weight on the balls of his feet as a water dancer might. (aGoT, Arya III)

Above him loomed a grotesque fat man with a forked yellow beard, holding a wooden mallet and an iron chisel. His bedrobe was large enough to serve as a tourney pavilion, but its loosely knotted belt had come undone, exposing a huge white belly and a pair of heavy breasts that sagged like sacks of suet covered with coarse yellow hair. He reminded Tyrion of a dead sea cow that had once washed up in the caverns under Casterly Rock. (aDwD, Tyrion I)

“What sort of role is that?” you may ask. At first glance it only seems to be nothing more than the obligatory insertion of diversity to represent all types of people in a group, and a likely physical self-representation of George himself in each ragtag or team. It seems to be merely a superficial role. But “the fat guy” has an underlying significance. It becomes particularly noticeable when one obese character is replaced by another – it heralds a change of political course for that ragtag or team.

We cannot really consider the council of King’s Landing a ragtag band, but it is an assembled team of all sorts of people from Westeros (and beyond), as much as a ragtag band. The main difference is that they have the power, the throne and are not on some adventurous mission. In aGoT, Team Council has King Robert “too fat for his armor” Baratheon. After his death and the victory at Blackwater, eventually Mace “fat man sitting on his arse” Tyrell takes a seat on the small council. Whereas before, Lannisters pretty much had control over the throne and court, even while Robert lived, the game changes for them when Mace Tyrell takes a seat at the Small Council. The Lannisters now have to share power with the Tyrells who wish to have as large a piece of the cake as they have, and are actually a threat to King Joffrey.

Or take Thoros of Myr. He starts out fat, but gets slimmer and slimmer the longer he is with the BwB. The Brotherhood without Banners changes likewise over time, until Thoros is almost unrecognizable and the Brotherhood has taken on an active political agenda which it used to lack before.  

 Initially, Illyrio is also the fat guy of Dany’s team. Throughout aGoT, Jorah follows Illyrio’s information to advise Khal Drogo and Daenerys for example to make for Mereen, sell the slaves there and acquire ships. In aCoK, Jorah begins to cast doubt on Illyrio’s intentions and loyalty to Daenerys, without much success initially. It is only when fat Strong Belwas is welcomed by Dany into her team, that Jorah convinces her - using Strong Belwas pretty much in every of his arguments - to sail for Astapor instead of Pentos in aSoS. Daenerys strikes out on a new political path – conquering Slaver’s Bay, free slaves, close the fighting pits and rule Mereen with the ragtag band of (ex) slaves.

Now, the chapter where Jon Connington and Aegon decide and convince the Golden Company to sail west and begin their conquest of Westeros without any aid of another known Targaryen,  Harry Strickland, commander of the Golden Company pledges his allegiance to them, also replacing Illyrio.

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Homeless Harry looked little like a warrior. Portly, with a big round head, mild grey eyes, and thinning hair that he brushed sideways to conceal a bald spot, Strickland sat in a camp chair soaking his feet in a tub of salt water. "You will pardon me if I do not rise," he said by way of greeting. "Our march was wearisome, and my toes are prone to blisters. It is a curse." (aDwD, Jon Connington I, The Lost Lord)

A portly man who prefers to sit and complains about marching. He comes very much across as having similarities to Mace Tyrell. A portly man is not exactly a morbidly obese man, but still round, corpulent and fat. If Harry Strickland was not a commander of a company of sellswords, but living in a palace able to soak his toes all day and eat as he like, he would no doubt grow to similar proportions as Illyrio. Jon Connington is already of a mind to say “to hell with Illyrio’s plans” before meeting with Strickland and the captains of the Golden Company. As Jon Connington reveals Young Griff’s identity (as far as he knows) their response is lukewarm and none of them are eager about Illyrio’s plan to reunite with Daenerys, certainly not if it means going to Mereen.

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Silence greeted his announcement. Someone cleared his throat. One of the Coles refilled his wine cup from the flagon. Gorys Edoryen played with one of his corkscrew ringlets and murmured something in a tongue Griff did not know. Laswell Peake coughed, Mandrake and Lothston exchanged a glance. They know, Griff realized then. They have known all along. He turned to look at Harry Strickland. "When did you tell them?"

The captain-general wriggled his blistered toes in his footbath. "When we reached the river. The company was restless, with good reason. We walked away from an easy campaign in the Disputed Lands, and for what? So we could swelter in this god-awful heat watching our coins melt away and our blades go to rust whilst I turn away rich contracts?" (aDwD, Jon Connington I, the Lost Lord)

Harry tries to argue for the contract that the Yunkai offered to join them in attacking Mereen and thus Daenerys. If they were to do this, they would in fact turn their coat to a contract writ in blood between Illyrio, Myles Toyne and Connington.

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"We could feign acceptance of the Yunkish offer," urged Gorys Edoryen. "Allow the Yunkai'i to transport us to the east, then return their gold beneath the walls of Meereen."

"One broken contract [with Myr] is stain enough upon the honor of the company." Homeless Harry Strickland paused with his blistered foot in hand. "Let me remind you, it was Myles Toyne who put his seal to this secret pact, not me. I would honor his agreement if I could, but how? It seems plain to me that the Targaryen girl is never coming west. Westeros was her father's kingdom. Meereen is hers. If she can break the Yunkai'i, she'll be Queen of Slaver's Bay. If not, she'll die long before we could hope to reach her." (aDwD, The Lost Lord)

Even when Aegon proposes that they put their hope on him, Strickland wriggles (his toes) against it, on the one hand arguing against Illyrio’s plan to unite with Daenerys and shortly later reminding them that the plan was to unite with Daenerys. Every one of the other captains though find it an appealing solution.

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"The demon road is death. We will lose half the company to desertion if we attempt that march, and bury half of those who remain beside the road. It grieves me to say it, but Magister Illyrio and his friends may have been unwise to put so much hope on this child queen." [..]

[…] And then Prince Aegon spoke. "Then put your hopes on me," he said. "Daenerys is Prince Rhaegar's sister, but I am Rhaegar's son. I am the only dragon that you need." […]"Why should I go running to my aunt as if I were a beggar? My claim is better than her own. Let her come to me … in Westeros."

Franklyn Flowers laughed. "I like it. Sail west, not east. Leave the little queen to her olives and seat Prince Aegon upon the Iron Throne. The boy has stones, give him that."

The captain-general looked as if someone had slapped his face. "[…]  And how do you propose to get to Westeros? You heard Lysono. There are no ships to be had."

This man is afraid to fight, Griff realized. How could they have chosen him to take the Blackheart's place? "No ships for Slaver's Bay. Westeros is another matter. The east is closed to us, not the sea. The triarchs would be glad to see the back of us, I do not doubt. They might even help us arrange passage back to the Seven Kingdoms. No city wants an army on its doorstep."

"He's not wrong," said Lysono Maar.

"By now the lion surely has the dragon's scent," said one of the Coles, "but Cersei's attentions will be fixed upon Meereen and this other queen. She knows nothing of our prince. Once we land and raise our banners, many and more will flock to join us."

"Some," allowed Homeless Harry, "not many. Rhaegar's sister has dragons. Rhaegar's son does not. We do not have the strength to take the realm without Daenerys and her army. Her Unsullied."

"The first Aegon took Westeros without eunuchs," said Lysono Maar. "Why shouldn't the sixth Aegon do the same?"

And as these captains swear allegiance to Aegon, their captain-general, portly (fat) Harry Strickland caves in and follows suit.

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"Prince Aegon," said Tristan Rivers, "we are your men. Is this your wish, that we sail west instead of east?"

"It is," Aegon replied eagerly. "If my aunt wants Meereen, she's welcome to it. I will claim the Iron Throne by myself, with your swords and your allegiance. Move fast and strike hard, and we can win some easy victories before the Lannisters even know that we have landed. That will bring others to our cause."

Rivers was smiling in approval. Others traded thoughtful looks. Then Peake said, "I would sooner die in Westeros than on the demon road," and Marq Mandrake chuckled and responded, "Me, I'd sooner live, win lands and some great castle," and Franklyn Flowers slapped his sword hilt and said, "So long as I can kill some Fossoways, I'm for it."

One by one, the men of the Golden Company rose, knelt, and laid their swords at the feet of his young prince. The last to do so was Homeless Harry Strickland, blistered feet and all.

In other words, Harry Strickland ends up being the replacement of Illyrio as fat guy, but without having Illyrio’s planning authority. The Golden Company becomes Aegon’s company, neither Harry’s nor Illyrio’s. And both Jon Connington, Aegon and the Company start a radical new political page – that of exiles returning home, without the credibility of another Targaryen.

And did you notice Lysono Maar’s words about Aegon conquering without eunuchs? Lysono meant Dany’s Unsullied, but it is quite striking that Lysono who takes up Varys’s spymaster role within the ragtag team says they don’t need eunuchs to conquer Westeros, which would include Varys the eunuch in a meta-story sense. Of course, we readers know that nevertheless Varys is trying to help without them knowing it. With Kevan and Pycelle alive, the Lannisters and Tyrells may stand united. With Cersei back in power though, and the Tyrells implied to be the murderers of Kevan and Pycelle, Varys likely will end up motivating plenty of houses of the Reach to turn their cloaks for Aegon.  

The Sponsor (Bank, investor)

Nobody truly can manage to wage war or rule without financial sponsoring. Soldiers, horses and elephants require food, but especially the men want rewards, physical or the satisfaction of accomplishing a personal goal. In the series this can be accomplished by loaning money from a bank, or a lord’s house, a mine, and in other cases allowing members to forage, steal, plunder and basically take what they want and need. Aside from being the fat man with the plan, Illyrio is personal investor and sponsor of those plans. No bank, no mine under a rock, no foraging, but gifts and connections he acquired over the years as international global merchant.

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Magister Illyrio was a dealer in spices, gemstones, dragonbone, and other, less savory things. He had friends in all of the Nine Free Cities, it was said, and even beyond, in Vaes Dothrak and the fabled lands beside the Jade Sea. It was also said that he'd never had a friend he wouldn't cheerfully sell for the right price. […] Gemstones glittered on every finger, and his man had oiled his forked yellow beard until it shone like real gold. "May the Lord of Light shower you with blessings on this most fortunate day, Princess Daenerys," the magister said as he took her hand. He bowed his head, showing a thin glimpse of crooked yellow teeth through the gold of his beard. (aGoT, Daenerys I)

His rings glimmered in the torchlight, red-gold and pale silver, crusted with rubies, sapphires, slitted yellow tiger eyes. Every finger wore a ring; some had two. (aGoT, Arya III)

He gifts three dragon eggs to Daenerys, sword to Viserys, chests of clothes, money, the Golden Company to Aegon and Jon Connington, Dothraki khalasar for a bride, merchant ships, knights, fighters, and recruited members.

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"I know that he gave me my dragon eggs."

He snorted. "If he'd known they were like to hatch, he'd would have sat on them himself." (aCoK, Daenerys III)

Wrong Jorah. If Illyrio had known that, he would have kept Daenerys close and possibly wedded her to Aegon. Anyhow, with golden fat Illyrio gifting three “eggs” that hatch into dragons and Jorah’s comment on how Illyrio would have sat on those eggs himself, we have the fundamental ingredients of the image of the “golden goose”, or the “goose that lay golden eggs”.

The goose that lay golden eggs is a moral tale about greed. A pair of farmers own this miraculous goose, but over time become impatient with always having to wait for a new egg to be laid. They suspect the goose is golden on the inside or filled with a stash of gold. Overcome with greed, they want all the suspected gold at at once and decide to slaughter it. Once butchered, however, the goose turns out to be just a normal goose. There is no gold to be found inside. And with the goose dead, they will never have a golden egg ever after.

Let us see how Illyrio conceptually matches this otherwise normal goose that can produce golden eggs. He is a merchant. He invests wealth and connections to make more wealth, but also has to re-invest his profits back into his business to keep it going. He can only gift the once in a while saved up extra. Obviously he must be incredibly rich to gift three dragon eggs for no other purpose than Targaryen birth symbols, but if you were to butcher him, the reward may be meager and his gifting ability ceases to be. He has no mine, no vault with stashes of gold. His wealth  is sailing around the seas of Planetos and reliant on his business connections. 

Noteworthy is that while Illyrio gifts three actual eggs once, he later gifts the equivalent worth of three of such eggs to either Dany or Aegon. For example, in aGoT, Jorah explains to Dany that three dragon eggs are worth a sellsword company.

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"[Viserys] had planned to take your dragon's eggs, until I warned him that I'd cut off his hand if he so much as touched them."

For a moment Dany was so shocked she had no words. "My eggs … but they're mine, Magister Illyrio gave them to me, a bride gift, why would Viserys want … they're only stones …"

"The same could be said of rubies and diamonds and fire opals, Princess … and dragon's eggs are rarer by far. Those traders he's been drinking with would sell their own manhoods for even one of those stones, and with all three Viserys could buy as many sellswords as he might need."

Dany had not known, had not even suspected. "Then … he should have them. He does not need to steal them. He had only to ask. He is my brother … and my true king." (aGoT, Daenerys V)

Illyrio manages to gift the Golden Company, 10000 sellswords with elephants, to Aegon. In other words, even if the contract is writ in blood, and not gold, Illyrio gifts the equivalent of three dragon eggs to Aegon.

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Ser Jorah took her arm. "My queen, Drogo will have no use for dragon's eggs in the night lands. Better to sell them in Asshai. Sell one and we can buy a ship to take us back to the Free Cities. Sell all three and you will be a wealthy woman all your days." (aGoT, Daenerys X)

Illyrio has not solely gifted Dany with three dragon eggs she hatched into actual dragons. At the end of aCoK, he sent Dany not just one ship, but three ships, full of merchandize, plus an exiled Kingsguard knight and a freed pit fighter from Mereen.

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“I have three dragons," she said, "and more than a hundred in my khalasar, with all their goods and horses."

"It is no matter," boomed Belwas. "We take all. The fat man hires three ships for his little silverhair queen."

"It is so, Your Grace," Arstan Whitebeard said. "The great cog Saduleon is berthed at the end of the quay, and the galleys Summer Sun and Joso's Prank are anchored beyond the breakwater." (aCoK, Daenerys V)

Illyrio gifted her with the equivalent of three dragon eggs. Later, Dany uses those three ships and the merchandize in it to seal the deal to buy an army of Unsullied. In other words, Illyrio basically keeps laying and hatching golden dragon eggs, by another form, but equivalent in worth. And you don’t want to kill the goose that can lay you golden eggs.

Unfortunately we have butchery foreshadowing for Illyrio.

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Illyrio was reclining on a padded couch, gobbling hot peppers and pearl onions from a wooden bowl. His brow was dotted with beads of sweat, his pig's eyes shining above his fat cheeks. Jewels danced when he moved his hands; onyx and opal, tiger's eye and tourmaline, ruby, amethyst, sapphire, emerald, jet and jade, a black diamond, and a green pearl. I could live for years on his rings, Tyrion mused, though I'd need a cleaver to claim them.  (aDwD, Tyrion I)

A cleaver is a tool that is consistently associated with the profession of a butcher, and we see butcher and cleaver appear hand in hand (pun intended) frequently in aDwD in the various POV chapters in Essos (Tyrion, Quentyn, Dany, and Selmy), such as the Butcher of Astapor, who both cleaves and is cleaved. But we have only one particular other POV where the same image of cleaving of fingers to acquire the rings and wealth appears other than Tyrion’s – Quentyn’s first chapter.

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The corsairs had come aboard in the darkness before the dawn, as the Meadowlark was anchored off the coast of the Disputed Lands. The crew had beaten them off, at the cost of twelve lives. Afterward the sailors stripped the dead corsairs of boots and belts and weapons, divvied up their purses, and yanked gemstones from their ears and rings from their fingers. One of the corpses was so fat that the ship's cook had to cut his fingers off with a meat cleaver to claim his rings. It took three Meadowlarks to roll the body into the sea. The other pirates were chucked in after him, without a word of prayer or ceremony. (aDwD, The Merchant’s Man, Quentyn I)

Note too how Quentyn recalls how the sailors of the Meadowlark dump his fat body in the sea. Tyrion compared Illyrio to a dead sea cow the first time he saw the man.

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He reminded Tyrion of a dead sea cow that had once washed up in the caverns under Casterly Rock. (aDwD, Tyrion I)

What connects Quentyn with Tyrion aside from this sentence? They both end up in Mereen, making a deal with the captain of a sellsword company.

Tyrion makes a deal with Ben Plumm, Quentyn with the Tattered Prince.

The cleaver appears again in Quentyn’s next chapter, the Windblown, in relation to Astapor and the Butcher, while they serve for the sellsword company the Windblown of the Tattered Prince.

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The rest was butchery, but this time it was the Butcher King on the wrong end of the cleaver. Caggo was the one who finally cut him down, fighting through the king's protectors on his monstrous warhorse and opening Cleon the Great from shoulder to hip with one blow of his curved Valyrian arakh. Frog did not see it, but those who did claimed Cleon's copper armor rent like silk, and from within came an awful stench and a hundred wriggling grave worms. Cleon had been dead after all. The desperate Astapori had pulled him from his tomb, clapped him into armor, and tied him onto a horse in hopes of giving heart to their Unsullied. (aDwD, The Windblown, Quentyn II)

This is an interesting passage in relation to the goose that lays golden eggs after it is butchered. As the Windblown fought with the remaining forces of Astapor, the people of Astapor sent the Butcher King in armor and on horseback out to lead those forces. The Windblown believed Cleon the Great to be long dead already, so they were surprised to see him being alive after all. But once butchered, it turns out that Cleon is not some magical human being with super powers. He was dead all along, and no more than a corpse bound onto a horse and clapped in armor. There is nothing inside the armor, but a corpse and maggots.

What is the greater plot relevance to cleavers, butchery, Quentyn and the Windblown? The Tattered Prince sends Quentyn and other Westerosi men to turn their coat on the Windblown and prepare a deal with Daenerys and her forces, because the Windblown realize that Dany’s armies are the real deal. Sellsword companies prefer one thing over gold – winning. And the Tattered Prince has a connection to Pentos.

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The Windblown went back thirty years, and had known but one commander, the soft-spoken, sad-eyed Pentoshi nobleman called the Tattered Prince. His hair and mail were silver-grey, but his ragged cloak was made of twists of cloth of many colors, blue and grey and purple, red and gold and green, magenta and vermilion and cerulean, all faded by the sun. When the Tattered Prince was three-and-twenty, as Dick Straw told the story, the magisters of Pentos had chosen him to be their new prince, hours after beheading their old prince. Instead he'd buckled on a sword, mounted his favorite horse, and fled to the Disputed Lands, never to return. He had ridden with the Second Sons, the Iron Shields, and the Maiden's Men, then joined with five brothers-in-arms to form the Windblown. Of those six founders, only he survived. (aDwD, The Windblown, Quentyn II)

He was once elected to be the new Prince of Pentos, after the Magisters (those with real power) sacrificed the previous one, much like Illyrio explained to Tyrion much earlier on. The Tattered Prince had no interest in becoming a political straw man, anyone’s puppet, let alone sacrificial scapegoat, and so he ran. And in his third chapter, when Quentyn attempts to deal with the Tattered Prince in helping him get back to Dorne with one or two dragons, after having betrayed his contract and mission for the Windblown, we learn that the Tattered Prince desires one thing only –

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"What I want," said the Tattered Prince, "is Pentos." (aDwD, The Spurned Suitor, Quentyn III)

When Quentyn dies so seems to end his deal with the Tattered Prince to give him Pentos. But Barristan Selmy ends up promising the same thing to the Tattered Prince, in return for turning his tattered cloak, and liberate the remaining hostages with the Yunkai – Daario, Jhogo and Hero.

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"Pentos," said Ser Barristan. "He promised him Pentos. Say it. No words of yours can help or harm Prince Quentyn now."

"Aye," said Ser Archibald unhappily. "It was Pentos. They made marks on a paper, the two of them."[…]

[…]"I mean to send them back to the Tattered Prince. And you with them. You will be two amongst thousands. Your presence in the Yunkish camps should pass unnoticed. I want you to deliver a message to the Tattered Prince. Tell him that I sent you, that I speak with the queen's voice. Tell him that we'll pay his price if he delivers us our hostages, unharmed and whole."  (aDwD, The Queen’s Hand, Barristan IV)

Pretty Meris already mentioned the price to Barristan before for the Windblown to side with Dany. And Dany refused it exactly because Illyrio is one of its Magisters, the fat goose who gave her dragon eggs and three ships.

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"The Tattered Prince will want more than coin, Your Grace. Meris says that he wants Pentos."

"Pentos?" Her eyes narrowed. "How can I give him Pentos? It is half a world away."  [...] "Pentos belongs to the Pentoshi. And Magister Illyrio is in Pentos. He who arranged my marriage to Khal Drogo and gave me my dragon eggs. Who sent me you, and Belwas, and Groleo. I owe him much and more. I will not repay that debt by giving his city to some sellsword. No." (aDwD, Daenerys IX)

I do not point out anything new above in relation to predicted future plots of the Tattered Prince sacking and taking Pentos. That such an event would be the end of Illyrio is common speculation.  But is in the meta-symbolism of the goose that lays eggs, its butchery, and the two similar images of acquiring a fat man’s rings by using a butcher’s cleaver, combined with later imagery of the Butcher King being butchered himself, the Butcher King being nothing special after all in Quentyn’s chapters that we find foreshadowing of Illyrio’s fate: the man will be killed in such a sacking, his fingers taken off by a cleaver for his rings, and his fat dead body rolled out into sea, to wash ashore somewhere like a dead sea cow. It is the exact same image of Tyrion’s musings and Quentyn’s memory of the fat corsair that is the earliest seed, before we even have heard about the Tattered Prince. And imo confirms what has already been speculated on with the far more obvious hints.

With Illyrio’s death, so will end the sponsoring, both for Dany and Aegon. Not that Aegon seems to worry much about that for the moment. He rewards his Golden Company with the castles they conquer. That suffices for warring and conquering, but less so for ruling, and is as much likely to make more enemies than keeping friends.

 

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The Halfmaester had good tidings. "Word's reached the camp from Marq Mandrake. The Volantenes put him ashore on what turned out to be Estermont, with close to five hundred men. He's taken Greenstone."

Estermont was an island off Cape Wrath, never one of their objectives. […]

[…] "By this time on the morrow we ought to hold three castles," he said. The force that had taken Griffin's Roost represented a quarter of their available strength; Ser Tristan Rivers had set off simultaneously for the seat of House Morrigen at Crow's Nest, and Laswell Peake for Rain House, the stronghold of the Wyldes, each with a force of comparable size. (aDwD, The Griffin Reborn, Jon Connington II)

Luckily for them, they conquer mostly the Stormlands with many of the lords and sons having followed Stannis to the Wall. The others went over to Joffrey after the defeat of the Blackwater. Except for Mace Tyrell and Lannisters wanting Storm’s End few potential allies would become enemies of either Aegon and Connington, especially if some of these Houses go extinct.

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"Even if Illyrio is the friend you think him," the knight said stubbornly, "he is not powerful enough to enthrone you by himself, no more than he could your brother."

"He is rich," she said. "Not so rich as Xaro, perhaps, but rich enough to hire ships for me, and men as well." (aCoK, Daenerys III)

The fairytale of the golden goose relates the story of the youngest son of three brothers who shares his meager beer and bread with a grey man in the forest. For his kindness he is rewarded with a goose with golden feathers at the heart of a chopped down tree². As he takes his treasure back, a young woman he passes is overcome by greed and wants to take a feather from the goose, but ends up being glued to the goose. Other people try to help her get unstuck, but end up glued to the previous person. Until they form an entire parade, the laughing stock at the palace.

Illyrio does not solely lay eggs, he is covered in gold, even his forked beard is dyed golden, making him that golden goose. In the above, Jorah dismisses the power of the golden goose.  In the fairytale however, the goose ends up being the cause of a greater reward to the youngest son – he ends up married to a princess who could not laugh until she saw the parade. Eventually he would thus become king. The goose is the cause of the boy’s success, because of its existence and its presence, like a charm.

This concept of a beneficial golden goose not only applies for Aegon, but towards Varys as well. When Illyrio talks of his partnership with Varys, he talks with a hint of wonder and more than gratitude. It is as if Illyrio regards Varys choosing him for his protector was his personal blessing, even though Illyrio was doing the protecting. And even now he will gift Varys whatever he requires to perform his “magic”. It is very reminiscent of the boy sharing his meager meal with the grey man in the forest, and the grey man in turn gifting the boy the golden goose, making a symbiotic relationship between the goose and the boy.

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“[…]I met him not long after he arrived, one step ahead of the slavers. […] Why he chose me to protect him I may never know, but we came to an arrangement. Varys spied on lesser thieves and took their takings. I offered my help to their victims, promising to recover their valuables for a fee. Soon every man who had suffered a loss knew to come to me, whilst city's footpads and cutpurses sought out Varys … half to slit his throat, the other half to sell him what they'd stolen. We both grew rich, and richer still when Varys trained his mice.[…] I grew so respectable that a cousin of the Prince of Pentos let me wed his maiden daughter."  (aDwD, Tyrion II)

Some of Dany’s decisions on what to do with Illyrio’s gifts become questionable, at least from the golden goose’s POV. She increasingly takes the gifts for herself without returning something for it. Even if she is still personally convinced she owes Illyrio some gift in return, her decisions and events have led to Barristan (one of the goose’s gifts) agreeing to help give Pentos to the Tattered Prince.  Dany is “stuck” in Mereen, with several people stuck to her and Mereen as well, even if they wish differently. In that sense, Dany becomes the girl reaching for the golden feather for herself, while the goose is supposed to be the boy’s. We even witness a parade of ridiculous and foolish Yunkish armies with slave warriors on stilts and other grotesqueries. The Yunkai army sounds more like a carnaval parade than an army. All to make the Queen laugh.

 

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"With their generals, it's a wonder they don't march into the sea," Beans said. [...]

[...] Foremost amongst them was the Yellow Whale, an obscenely fat man who always wore yellow silk tokars with golden fringes. Too heavy even to stand unassisted, he could not hold his water, so he always smelled of piss, a stench so sharp that even heavy perfumes could not conceal it. But he was said to be the richest man in Yunkai, and he had a passion for grotesques; his slaves included a boy with the legs and hooves of a goat, a bearded woman, a two-headed monster from Mantarys, and a hermaphrodite who warmed his bed at night. [...]

[...]Then there was the Girl General, who rode about on a white horse with a red mane and commanded a hundred strapping slave soldiers that she had bred and trained herself, all of them young, lean, rippling with muscle, and naked but for breechclouts, yellow cloaks, and long bronze shields with erotic inlays. Their mistress could not have been more than sixteen and fancied herself Yunkai's own Daenerys Targaryen.

The Little Pigeon was not quite a dwarf, but he might have passed for one in a bad light. Yet he strutted about as if he were a giant, with his plump little legs spread wide and his plump little chest puffed out. His soldiers were the tallest that any of the Windblown had ever seen; the shortest stood seven feet tall, the tallest close to eight. All were long-faced and long-legged, and the stilts built into the legs of their ornate armor made them longer still. Pink-enameled scales covered their torsos; on their heads were perched elongated helms complete with pointed steel beaks and crests of bobbing pink feathers. Each man wore a long curved sword upon his hip, and each clasped a spear as tall as he was, with a leaf-shaped blade at either end.[...]

[...] Gerris Drinkwater laughed. "A fearsome lot. Nothing scares me worse than stilt-walkers in pink scales and feathers. If one was after me, I'd laugh so hard my bladder might let go." [...]

[...] Even the Little Pigeon and his Herons paled beside the folly of the brothers the sellswords called the Clanker Lords. The last time the slave soldiers of Yunkai'i had faced the dragon queen's Unsullied, they broke and ran. The Clanker Lords had devised a stratagem to prevent that; they chained their troops together in groups of ten, wrist to wrist and ankle to ankle. "None of the poor bastards can run unless they all run," Dick Straw explained, laughing. "And if they do all run, they won't run very fast."

"They don't fucking march very fast either," observed Beans. "You can hear them clanking ten leagues off." (aDwD, The Windblown, Quentyn II)

Jorah: "Our side consists of two score Yunkish lordlings, each with his own half-trained monkey men. Slaves on stilts, slaves in chains … they may have troops of blind men and palsied children too, I would not put it past them." (aDwD, Tyrion XII)

We have an absurd army with the Yunkai, because of the golden goose motif.Unfortunately, Daenerys is not present to laugh at this spectacle when they show their “strength”.

And while Dany is like the girl stuck at a golden goose's feather, she is indeed also the "princess" who can't laugh at the follies in the Fighting Pits that the people of Mereen and Hizdar find so funny.

Finally, there is an extinct house that actually has a golden goose for a sigil – House Cargyll of the Crownlands. Their blazon shows a golden goose on bendy sinister black and red. And yes, that is a sinister sigil, because black and red are the colors of House Targaryen. And they are famously known for having twin brothers in the Kingsguard who killed each other during the Dance of the Dragons, as each twin brother fought for another claimant to the throne. Erryk fought for Aegon II and the greens, while Arryk fought for Rhaenyra and the blacks.
 

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The twins Ser Erryk and Ser Arryk, who had died on one another's swords hundreds of years ago, when brother fought sister in the war the singers called the Dance of the Dragons.  (aGoT, Bran II)

Only five of the white cloaks were in King’s Landing at the time of Viserys’s death; Ser Criston himself, Ser Arryk Cargyll, Ser Rickard Thorne, Ser Steffon Darklyn, and Ser Willis Fell. Ser Erryk Cargyll (twin to Ser Arryk) and Ser Lorent Marbrand, with Princess Rhaenyra on Dragonstone, remained unaware and uninvolved as their brothers-in-arms went forth into the night to rouse the members of the small council from their beds. (The Princess and the Queen)

The goose’s plan in aDwD was wed Aegon to Dany, by then a Queen, and win his kingship through marriage. But with Aegon deciding to conquer Westeros by himself and Dany deciding on fire and blood, there are numerous indications that this will end with Aegon and Dany fighting one another. The golden goose Illyrio sponsoring both Dany and Aegon and the golden goose of House Cargyll with twin brothers killing each other while fighting at either side of the Dance of the Dragons, is yet another ominous foreshadowing that this will not end in a marriage between Aegon and Dany, but a war. Illyrio’s golden beard being forked in two prongs aligns with helping both predicted warring parties with his gifts, even if that was not his intention nor plan.

Of course, there are other non-Targaryen princesses Aegon might end up marrying to gain himself a throne or a kingdom. It does not have to end with seven kingdoms, does it? Just one, with a princess who does not know how to smile anymore, and in dire need of one. Do we have any candidates for it?  

Illyrio’s origin

Much is speculated in this regard. "He’s a Blackfyre". "He’s a bastard descendant of Brightflame". The often cited evidence for it is the fact that the archon of Tyrosh is present during the marriage of Dany to Khal Drogo.

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The man with the green beard is brother to the Archon of Tyrosh, and the man behind him is Ser Jorah Mormont." (aGoT, Daenerys I)

It is one of the few Tyrosh links we have for Illyrio. Of course, unless we get more historical reveals about Tyrosh, the Archon himself cannot be expected to be a Blackfyre supporter. One of the Band of Nine of the Ninepenny Kings, Alequo Adarys, convinced his colleagues (amongst them Maelys I Blackfyre) to sack Tyrosh and he ruled it as Tyrant of Tyrosh until he was poisoned by his own queen six years after the war of the Ninepenny Kings in 266 AC. After the Tyrant’s death the Archon who had been deposed was restored again. The Archon’s brother at Dany’s wedding is unlikely to be the same Archon as in 266 AC, but even though there is no evidence of a persecution of Blackfyre descendants along a female line in Tyrosh, the likelihood of a political backing seems slim here. We know from Doran Martell that once there had been a plan for Arianne to be sent to serve as the Archon’s cupbearer, so she could meet with her betrothed Viserys Targaryen, then a guest at the Archon’s house in Tyrosh. Meanwhile the Archon’s daughter lived in Dorne for a while and played with Arianne in the water gardens.

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It had been years since Arianne had thought of that. "Oh, and Frynne, her father was a smith. Her hair was brown. Garin was my favorite, though. When I rode Garin no one could defeat us, not even Nym and that green-haired Tyroshi girl."

"That green-haired girl was the Archon's daughter. I was to have sent you to Tyrosh in her place. You would have served the Archon as a cupbearer and met with your betrothed in secret, but your mother threatened to harm herself if I stole another of her children, and I . . . I could not do that to her." (aFfC, The Princess in the Tower, Arianne II)

All this points to the Tyroshi Archon’s family being supporters of Targaryens in general.

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Beneath his window six cherry trees stood sentinel around a marble pool, their slender branches bare and brown. A naked boy stood on the water, poised to duel with a bravo's blade in hand. He was lithe and handsome, no older than sixteen, with straight blond hair that brushed his shoulders. So lifelike did he seem that it took the dwarf a long moment to realize he was made of painted marble, though his sword shimmered like true steel. (aDwD, Tyrion I)

“[…] Perhaps you chanced to glimpse the statue by my pool? Pytho Malanon carved that when I was six-and-ten. A lovely thing, though now I weep to see it." (aDwD, Tyrion II)

Some readers conclude that the statue cannot be Illyrio himself, as Illyrio would not have been an important rich man when sixteen, but still a bravo, a street fighter, and poor. They suspect it is a statue of Aegon himself. I would say that argument does not take into account that artists are not only commissioned to make a likeness of the buyer. Artists also pick boys from the street that please their aesthetical ideals, and have them model for them. Michelangelo’s models were not rich. One of them was actually a blackmailer. Do you think the young man who modeled for Michelangelo’s David was a wealthy commissioner? Of course not. It is quite possible that Pytho Malanon hired Illyrio to model for him for his own artistic pleasure, after young Illyrio caught his eye, and that Illyrio was able to purchase the statue later in life, once he was a magister and rich, and fat. Alternatively, Varys and Illyrio might have discovered a personal secret about Pytho that gave them leverage to blackmail the carver into making the statue.

Meanwhile Illyrio’s words in Tyrion’s third chapter about the lad, his disappointment at not being able to see him, suggest to me that Aegon has not been able to visit Pentos, let alone remain for months to have a statue carved.

I do not only think it is indeed possible for the statue to be Illyrio when young, but that such is actually the case. This makes the most literary sense with the hints that Illyrio is Aegon’s father. In Tyrion’s first chapter we get acquainted with the statue. In the second chapter we get our first background history of Illyrio and his time with Varys, along with the reveal that the statue was him when he was sixteen. We then also get Serra’s story and her picture, and the allusion how she “petrified” because of the grey plague. And in Tyrion’s third chapter we are introduced to Young Griff, and have Illyrio’s sentimental expressions about the lad making vows on Serra’s stone hands.

In order to give the reader clues that Illyrio is Aegon’s father, George has to do more than just give us sentimental behavior. What is so specific about the statue? The blond hair. Remember that since Illyrio dyes his hair and beard golden, we otherwise would have no way to verify Illyrio’s natural hair color. Certainly when it comes to sons with blond hair in this series, George has to show us that Illyrio is not black or dark of hair. The statue establishes convincingly that Illyrio could have fathered Aegon³.

I already argued that there is no need for Illyrio to have any Targaryen blood to be motivated to help his son to a throne for promises made to a dead wife. I will even go as far as to say that as Illyrio tells us Varys’s story, he indirectly makes clear he is Pentosi, born and bred (and thus he is the sole non-exile altogether in the ragtag). I think he survived and flourished in the Pentosi equivalent of Flea Bottom. Right after Illyrio confesses the statue is himself when sixteen, Illyrio continues Varys’s story and mentions how Varys’s accent marked him for hatred.

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“In Myr he was a prince of thieves, until a rival thief informed on him. In Pentos his accent marked him, and once he was known for a eunuch he was despised and beaten. […] “ (aDwD, Tyrion II)

The Free Cities speak a bastard form of High Valyrian, but each city has a different dialect.  The above quote implies, without spelling it out, that Illyrio did not have an accent that was different from Pentos. Furthermore his name, Illyrio Mopatis, is quite typical for Pentos. Other known or mentioned Pentosi male characters are magisters Manolo and Ordello, and captain Groleo, the prince Nevio Narratys. The Pentosi author of Before the Dragons who claimed Pentos existed before the Valyrian expansion is called Gessio Haratis. First names either end with –o or –io, while last names end with –atis. Especially -atis is typical for Pentos. We do not see it occur in any other Free City.

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“[…] By day [Varys] slept in the sewers, by night he prowled the rooftops like a cat. I was near as poor, a bravo in soiled silks, living by my blade. […] (aDwD, Tyrion II)

That said, since Illyrio claims to have been poor and basically living on the streets when young, it is unlikely his last name is an actual House name, but more like a name he styled himself once he started to come into money and sought to marry into noble blood. The other Free Cities that also have male characters with a name ending with –io are Tyrosh (Daario Naharis)  and Braavos (Syrio and Phario Forel, Ternesio and Denyo Terys). And unless, Illyrio also altered his first name, we can rule out Myr, Lys and Volantis since no male name there ends with -io.

While the water dance originates from Braavos, it is not solely practiced or taught there. A bravo is not necessarily a Bravosi. It simply means a duelist who acquired the skill of the fencing technique called water dancing and fights with a typical bravo sword. And if he modeled for a famous Essosi stone carver, the likeliest manner in which he would have been noticed would have been exactly because Illyrio grew quite skilled at it in the streets of Pentos, especially if so many other thieves wanted to see Varys killed. Furthermore, we constantly see how Braavosi are anti-slavery nor do they joke about dragons. Illyrio may say that there are no slaves anymore in Pentos, but part of his wealth is based on slave trade. This is irreconcilable with Braavos roots. So, we can confidently rule out Braavos for Illyrio.

Overall, Illyrio’s complete attitude, his sentimentality, expressing feelings of affection and owing Varys, his melancholy about his lost youth and days gone by, combined with the personal pride of having been allowed to marry into the Pentosi nobility paints a picture of a Pentosi crook with personal loyalties that he honors, able to deceive when it is in his interest, but not out to harm.

But “CHERRIES!” There is much ado about cherries in the Blackfyre theories⁴, whether that Blackfyre is Aegon through his mother, or Illyrio himself. When Tyrion looks out onto the statue, the first time, he notices the statue and pool are surrounded by six cherry trees with bare branches (it is autumn). During his meal with Illyrio later on, the dessert is black cherries with cream, which Illyrio apparently enjoys very much.

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Illyrio smiled as his serving men spooned out bowls of black cherries in sweet cream for them both. […]The cheesemonger spooned up cherries. [...] Magister Illyrio wiped sweet cream from his mouth with the back of a fat hand. (aDwD, Tyrion I)

I agree that the bare cherry trees that surround the pool and statue is noteworthy for symbolic interpretation as is the manner in which Illyrio enjoys his black cherries with cream. The cherry trees are repeated twice, so is the desert, and a third time if you count Illyrio wiping the cream from his mouth.

But other than the their color being black I have a hard time seeing how that suffices to say “See, Blackfyre!” If this were so, I would expect to see cherries mentioned in either the Targaryen or Blackfyre cause, with each the appropriate color. And unfortunately that does not seem to be the case. In fact, aside from black and red, George did not forget that cherries also can be white. Jhogo buys fat white cherries (rather than red cherries) in Qarth in aCoK, while Dany and her bloodriders also see false dragon eggs for sale.

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Aggo gave an urchin a copper for a skewer of honey-roasted mice and nibbled them as he rode. Jhogo bought a handful of fat white cherries. Elsewhere they saw beautiful bronze daggers for sale, dried squids and carved onyx, a potent magical elixir made of virgin's milk and shade of the evening, even dragon's eggs which looked suspiciously like painted rocks.(aCoK, Daenerys V)

While I do not disagree with the proposal that Aegon is a false dragon, the opposing colors of black and white stay clear of the red-black color motif. Instead it brings the black and white swan fighting it out on the House Swann blazon to mind, where siblings or close kin fight each other from opposing sides. We have the exact same color scheme within Illyrio’s bowl of desert: black cherries and white cream.

The Mystery Knight features a scene of a woman feeding her husband cherries. Sure, the plot of the Mystery Knight revolves around Bloodraven halting and exposing the plot of the Second Blackfyre Rebellion during a tourney at Whitewalls. Officially the tourney is organized in celebration of the wedding between Lord Ambrose Butterwell and an unnamed Lady Frey who was Walder Frey’s older sister. It is during the wedding feast that we see Lady Frey-Butterwell feed her husband cherries.

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"There's the lad who made this marriage," Ser Maynard said as the chinless urchin went screaming past.

"How so?" The Fiddler held up an empty wine cup, and a passing server filled it. Ser Maynard glanced toward the dais, where the bride was feeding cherries to her husband.

"His Lordship will not be the first to butter that biscuit. His bride was deflowered by a scullion at the Twins, they say. She would creep down to the kitchens to meet him. Alas, one night that little brother of hers crept down after her. When he saw them making the two-backed beast, he let out a shriek, and cooks and guardsmen came running and found milady and her pot boy coupling on the slab of marble where the cook rolls out the dough, both naked as their name day and floured up from head to heel." (the Mystery Knight)

Cherry is slang for hymen or virginity, or the vagina. Plucking or popping the cherry is slang for the loss of virginity. Eating cherry … Well you get the point. The cherries in the Mystery Knight have nothing to do with Blackfyres or trueborn Targaryens, but the fact that the bride's cherry who is supposed to be a virgin was already plucked.

What is Illyrio’s aim in aDwD? What does he hope will happen with Aegon and Dany? He hopes and believes they will wed. What are black cherries with white cream? A sweet, delicious wedding of ingredients. And in fact, two chapters after Tyrion found out the secret identity of Young Griff, when Tyrion finally comprehends that the dragon Illyrio talked about was not Daenerys as he supposed, but Aegon, and that the plan is to wed Aegon to Dany, Dany throws a cherry to Xaro of Qarth, once he brings up the suggestion of marriage again and refuses him.

 

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"Shall I ask again?" wondered Xaro. "No, I know that smile. It is a cruel queen who dices with men's hearts. Humble merchants like myself are no more than stones beneath your jeweled sandals." A single tear ran slowly down his pale white cheek.

Dany knew him too well to be moved. Qartheen men could weep at will. "Oh, stop that." She took a cherry from the bowl on the table and threw it at his nose. "I may be a young girl, but I am not so foolish as to wed a man who finds a fruit platter more enticing than my breast. I saw which dancers you were watching." (aDwD, Daenerys III)

And while Aegon journeys to Volantis on the Shy Maid to meet his bride, Quentyn sails in the same direction for the same reason – a political union by marriage. Aegon decides to go to Westeros, while Quentyn persists, arriving too late and ending up dead after trying to catch himself a real fire breathing dragon. It is almost as if George tells us what Aegon’s fate would have been if he had tried to get to Mereen with the Golden Company. He would have arrived too late, with Dany intent on wedding Hizdar for her peace, then disappearing on Drogon’s back, and Aegon trying to catch himself a real dragon instead.

The cherries represent weddings and wedding nights as a sexual innuendo. If the pool had been surrounded by blackberry shrubs, readers would still say “See! Blackfyre!” And if the cherries in Illyrio’s bowl had been red, readers would argue that it stands for the red background of the blazon of House Blackfyre.  

The sexual innuendo can even be found in the bare cherry trees. Those trees are bare, because they have been “plucked”. And instead of a handsome, lithe youth Illyrio now looks like a sea cow.

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"Age makes ruins of us all. I am still in mourning for my nose. But Varys …" (aDwD, Tyrion I)

Illyrio’s plucking days are over. The only cherries he will still pop are those in a dessert bowl, just like the sole cherry that Ambrose Butterwell would pop was the one that his bride fed him at the feast, not in his bed. Illyrio may fetch and buy bedslaves from Lys, but trained in the arts of love, those are not virgins.

Finally, Illyrio shows how much he at heart does not care about sigils and houses the way anyone with actual Westerosi ties would.

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The dwarf tore a loaf of bread in half. "And you had best be careful what you say of my family, magister. Kinslayer or no, I am a lion still."

That seemed to amuse the lord of cheese no end. He slapped a meaty thigh and said, "You Westerosi are all the same. You sew some beast upon a scrap of silk, and suddenly you are all lions or dragons or eagles. I can take you to a real lion, my little friend. The prince keeps a pride in his menagerie. Would you like to share a cage with them?"

The lords of the Seven Kingdoms did make rather much of their sigils, Tyrion had to admit. "Very well," he conceded. "A Lannister is not a lion. Yet I am still my father's son, and Jaime and Cersei are mine to kill." (aDwD, Tyrion I)

Illyrio might use the symbolism in language, marriage plots and gifts insofar he needs it to sell it to Westerosi, but ultimately he finds it comical and silly. I ask you, would a Blackfyre actually laugh about sigils? And woudl he bother building a merchant empire in a city where he's not free to hire sellswords, contract free companies, not free to have a military fleet.

As a few last points, if as I say Illyrio is Pentosi with no drop of Targaryen blood in his body, then he is the sole character of the ragtag of exiles who isn't actually an exile at all. He does seem to be an orphan, as most street urchins surviving often are, and he also fits the secular rule of this particular ragtag of exiles, because when Tyrion cites a prayer of the Faith, Illyrio is startled by it.

 

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Andalos. The Faith taught that the Seven themselves had once walked the hills of Andalos in human form. "The Father reached his hand into the heavens and pulled down seven stars," Tyrion recited from memory, "and one by one he set them on the brow of Hugor of the Hill to make a glowing crown."

Magister Illyrio gave him a curious look. "I did not dream my little friend was so devout." (aDwD, Tyrion II)

 

 

Conclusion (tl;tr)

Illyrio’s plan was to help his son Aegon to a dynastic future, trying to make him out to be a Targaryen heir ahead of the others, by using Viserys and Daenerys as the living, known Targaryens to help make Westeros believe he is Rhaegar’s son. Originally Viserys was to be the main Targaryen to make Aegon credible, with the plan for both Viserys and Aegon to unite and conquer Westeros together with Dothraki and the Golden Company. Aerys’s will in which he proclaimed Viserys heir over Rhaegar’s son Aegon would ensure that Viserys would not be envious, nor even regard him as a rival. And Aegon’s ragtag of exiles who raise him are sufficiently misfits for Westerosi society for Viserys to find it laughable.

 Illyrio and Varys planned to have Viserys as king of Westeros for a few years, with Aegon waiting in the wings of the small council, until the appropriate time to have Viserys sacrificed and then replaced by Aegon as a far more loved king.

The fat man’s role can be any sort of role, but when one portly or obese member is replaced by another in the particular ragtag band, this usually heralds or coincides with a completely new course and changes of plans, leadership and goals. We see this happen when portly Harry Strickland swears fealty to Aegon just as Aegon and Jon Connington and the Golden Company have had enough of fat Illyrio’s plans.

Every ragtag band requires some form of sponsoring. Illyrio is the sponsor of both Dany’s ragtag band as well as Aegon’s. Both his golden dye and his rich gifts - dragon eggs or the equivalent – make Illyrio more than just a wealthy merchant playing bank. He is the golden goose that lays golden eggs. But all sponsoring ceases when the goose will be butchered, for which we have both obvious and uncanny ominous foreshadowing in relation to cleavers as well as dead sea cows rolled into the sea and washing ashore. As many have speculated already, the likeliest future event is the sack and conquering of Pentos by the Tattered Prince, a demand that first Quentyn Martell agrees to, but later Barristan Selmy.

The stories and background we have with regards Illyrio Mopatis all point to him being Pentosi born, and not having a drop of dragon blood himself. Illyrio is just Illyrio, a street urchin and bravo who was lucky to meet with Varys and while a crook, not someone evil nor consumed with revenge. Apart from not being an actual exile, Illyrio otherwise fits the "rules" of the ragtag band of exiles - he is an orphan and he is secular.

Notes:

1.         Ever wondered about Varys dispatching a courier to bring Robert the news about Dany’s marriage to Khal Drogo? Dany married Khal Drogo at the turn of the year, and Jorah’s report on it would not have taken months to reach Varys. Dany must have been close to Norvos by then already, if not Qohor. Why did Varys wait so long to dispatch a courier? Why did he not send a raven to Winterfell? And if he could have waited this long already, why did Varys not wait to report it upon Robert’s return to King’s Landing at a Small Council? Exactly because after Jon Arryn’s death the dynamics of the small council altered significantly, and Varys was not yet sure how much sway Ned Stark had with Robert. Because Varys wanted Robert to learn of it without the rest of the Small Council present. Varys needed to test Ned Stark’s isolated powers of persuasion with King Robert, before it would ever come to a discussion about it at a Small Council meeting.
2.         That synopsis alone evokes images of weirwood gifts, Grey Kings, and such.
3.         I recognize that some pairings with a dark haired parent have resulted in a blond haired child – Elia Martell is dark haired, but baby Aegon was said to be fair haired like a Targaryen. But in that case, George has established that the Martells of Dorne already have a Targaryen as ancestor in their bloodline, and thus Elia Martell can be a carrier of the recessive gene for light hair without it being expressed in her own hair, but still passed on to her son. George has not established Illyrio’s family tree and likely never will.
4.           Post about cherries and statue:  http://asoiaf.westeros.org/index.php?/topic/116010-is-faegon-the-last-of-the-blackfyre-line-of-targaryens-if-so/&do=findComment&comment=6155517

[Julisch]

On 5/18/2017 at 6:50 AM, sweetsunray said:

Guess again

I'm guessing Lemore = Tyene Sand's septa mother, whom Arienne visited with Oberyn and the Snakes when she was a young girl. 

Wonderful thread, I wish you would continue.

[sweetsunray]

1 hour ago, Juli Stark said:

I'm guessing Lemore = Tyene Sand's septa mother, whom Arienne visited with Oberyn and the Snakes when she was a young girl. 

Wonderful thread, I wish you would continue.

Well, to back some of the ideas I put out there, I have written a historical Blackfyre essay - amassing the wolrd book information and Mystery Knight and series references. And have been working hard on origin essays for Varys: spiders, silke routes and color purple

But yes, I think Lemore = Tyene Sand's soiled septa mother.

https://sweeticeandfiresunray.com/2017/07/11/house-blackfyre/

[OtherFromAnotherMother]

2 hours ago, sweetsunray said:

 

https://sweeticeandfiresunray.com/2017/07/11/house-blackfyre/

Your essays are awesome! 

[elder brother jonothor dar]

On Monday, May 29, 2017 at 6:44 PM, sweetsunray said:

I am quite certain that Viserys himself caused the loss of funds and closing of doors. The vain young man would have spent money on the wrong things, rather than live economically and hire tutors.

Loving your analysis still reading but compare what Griff has and needs to be a good ruler and what Viserys lacks.

A king needs to be a warrior but he lacks a master at arms, the faith is a powerful friend but no Septa both of which the golden goose could have provided with ease at no risk to himself should he wanted Viserys to rule.

[sweetsunray]

33 minutes ago, elder brother jonothor dar said:

Loving your analysis still reading but compare what Griff has and needs to be a good ruler and what Viserys lacks.

A king needs to be a warrior but he lacks a master at arms, the faith is a powerful friend but no Septa both of which the golden goose could have provided with ease at no risk to himself should he wanted Viserys to rule.

Agreed. The main person of the three they were trying to bring in was Aegon. Viserys was the prop who eventually would take the fall. But they did not want him dead at that time. Drogo owed a gift to Viserys for Dany, not to Illyrio. And clearly they wanted that Dothraki army to invade Westeros, because when the war between Lannisters and Starks was about to break out, they hastened their assassination-mummery. And later JonCon, Lemore, and the GC make clear they require a known surviving Targaryen to make fAegon believable.

[Jon Snow is a loser]

On 5/17/2017 at 7:08 AM, sweetsunray said:

The War of the Roses occurred within a feudal system, but the Tudor dynasty emerged out of that war with the reconciliation marriage between Lancastrian Henry VII and Elizabeth of York. Their son Henry VIII ruled as an enlightened despot rewarding and elevating commoners to high stations, while ridding himself of long-time lines of noble blood, as did his daughter Queen Elizabeth I. Feudalism ended within one generation.

good essays! but minor nitpick. It is common misconception that Henry VII started the practice of mass recruiting "new men" to government. The thing is commoners had always been the backbone of bureaucrat, but they were powerless because the bureaucrat was powerless in a feudal setting. What Henry VII did was the centralisation of power which led to a strong bureaucrat & as a result the commoner-bureaucrats were empowered. 

[Angus Thermopyle]

I love how thorough you are in your essays and hope to read more of your analysis of the other ragtag bands soon.  

[sweetsunray]

On 21-9-2017 at 9:51 PM, Angus Thermopyle said:

I love how thorough you are in your essays and hope to read more of your analysis of the other ragtag bands soon.  

Well, here are two posts coming up of published essays All about Varys.

 

[sweetsunray]

Lord Varys – Introduction

Lord Varys is an enormous intricate, mostly mysterious character, with divided opinions on his goals, character and origin. It is impossible to encapsulate Varys in one essay. While there are certain good rescources out there on Varys, most of these merely scratch the surface, and miss out on the load of clues that George has given us in relation to Varys, some that are quite surprising and takes us across all of Essos. Much of what I will present is new, but certain basic ideas have been floating around. They simply were never tied to Varys before or gotten into as thoroughly. Since some of the investigation and results are quite stunning, I tackle Varys thoroughly, and therefore decided to break it all down in various essays. At least two of those deal with Varys’s origin. Another essay will concentrate on his trickster characters and examines his possible motives and plans. The final one will focus on the role implications and shifts within the ragtag of Exiles.

The story as spelled out to us

Pycelle claims that Varys is from Lys. Illyrio claims he was from Myr but had to flee Myr because of a rival thief. Tyrion seems to think that Varys originates from Myr as well. Illyrio at least confirms that Varys was a foreigner to Pentos, since the other street boys in Pentos beat and bullied Varys for being a eunuch and having a different accent.

Quote

[Pycelle] cleared his throat and spat a thick glob of phlegm onto the rushes. Above them, a raven cawed loudly in the rookery. “The Lord Varys was born a slave in Lys, did you know?” (aGoT, Eddard V)

“Varys came from Myr.”
“So he did. I met him not long after he arrived, one step ahead of the slavers. By day he slept in the sewers, by night he prowled the rooftops like a cat. […] In Myr he was a prince of thieves, until a rival thief informed on him. In Pentos his accent marked him, and once he was known for a eunuch he was despised and beaten. (aDwD, Tyrion II)

 

Both sources also link him to slavery. Pycelle claims he was born as a slave, while Illyrio claims that Varys had managed to ellude slavers who were in pursuit of him. Meanwhile Varys claims to have been part of a Mummer’s Troupe, until a sorcerer bought Varys from his master in Myr. The sorcerer had no further interest in Varys beyond castrating him and burning his manhood, and thus let him go, and Varys survived in Myr until he fled to Pentos.

Quote

“I was an orphan boy apprenticed to a traveling folly. Our master owned a fat little cog and we sailed up and down the narrow sea performing in all the Free Cities and from time to time in Oldtown and King’s Landing. One day at Myr, a certain man came to our folly. After the performance, he made an offer for me that my master found too tempting to refuse. […] The mummers had sailed by the time he was done with me. Once I had served his purpose, the man had no further interest in me, so he put me out. When I asked him what I should do now, he answered that he supposed I should die. To spite him, I resolved to live. I begged, I stole, and I sold what parts of my body still remained to me. Soon I was as good a thief as any in Myr, […] (aCoK, Tyrion X)

 

How Pycelle ever came to learn that Varys was a slave from Lys is not known, and Pycelle is not alive anymore to reveal this. Still, if we combine the three claims, we can infer that Varys likely was born into slavery in Lys, most probably to a bedslave either in a household of Lys or in a pillow house. A few years later Varys was sold to the traveling folly until his owner sold him to the sorcerer in Myr, and there he was castrated. Still, a boy he fled Myr some years later and soon met and formed a partnership with Illyrio. Years and years go by, and following Maester Yandel’s chronology of Aerys II, it appears that Varys was hired by Aerys II to become his spymaster between 278-280 AC, after Steffon Baratheon’s death.

This is roughly what we can put together for Varys. Everything else is and will remain speculation if and when George either confirms or disproves them in the last two books. But that does not mean some of these theories are without some foundation, or that there cannot be interesting gems found along a spider trail.

The Spider

Quote

Catelyn ignored his familiarity. There were more important questions. “So it was the King’s Spider who found me.” […] The title [Lord Varys] was but a courtesy due him as a council member; Varys was lord of nothing but the spiderweb, the master of none but his whisperers. (aGoT, Catelyn IV)

 

The Spider is Varys’s nickname. Catelyn makes the obvious association to a spiderweb, and that in relation to spying and whispers. He has a network of spies. So the spying spider is a role association. It is spelled out for us, and the reason why we barely ever look beyond this meaning for the spy-der.

The second association is more subtextual. Spiders are predators who build sticky traps in which to catch their food, and have fangs that inject venom. So, when we think of spiders, we think of poisonous and fanged creepy crawlies on eight legs with eight eyes, scuttling around in the shadows and dank places giving us the heebie jeebus. George uses this cultural association too in the the books, through the prejudiced opinion and physical responses other characters have when interacting with Varys. For example when Pycelle warns Ned not to trust spiders, he thinks to himself how Varys makes his skin crawl.

Quote

“[…] Put not your trust in spiders, my lord.”
That was scarcely anything Ned needed to be told; there was something about Varys that made his flesh crawl. (aGoT, Eddard V)

 

Certain people (with arachnaphobia) cannot even bear to look at a picture of a spider.

A purple tarantula (Pamhoboteus), in Dutch a “bird-spider”

George uses the spider shudder prejudice against Varys to make the first-time reader believe that Littlefinger is more trustworthy in aGoT. The distrust is so strong that even after Littlefinger is shown to be behind the murder of Jon Arryn and a lot of murderous and callous plots, betrays Ned Stark, grooms Sansa for his sexual predation, few readers are ever convinced that Varys does not have equally devious plans in mind. So, when Varys confirms that he intends to plummet the realm into chaos to help Aegon’s conquest, shows he is willing to murder good men for it, we chuckle and think, “I knew all along that we cannot trust Varys as far as we can throw him.” BryndenBFish’s excellent essay on the Mummer’s Folly comes to such a conclusion, making him a puppet master with Aegon just being one of his puppets (albeit his most important puppet).

Arachne in Purgatory, by Gustave Doré

Still, we ought to take a deeper look into spiders beyond the spelled out spy-derweb, beyond how they make our skin crawl. The next step is to look for stories and myths about spiders as they are part of the collective. The first mythical spider to come to mind is Arachne (‘Spider’), an extremely skilled weaver who denied she had learned her skill from Athena (the patron goddess of weaving). Both Athena and Arachne enter into a contest. Sure that she will win, Athena decrees the loser would have to give up weaving ever after. Arachne proves herself to be better skilled, but events lead to Arachne’s hanging, and Athena turns her into a spider so that she can weave forever more. Yes, the Arachne myth is ancient Greek myth¹, but still very much part of the pop-art collective, as Gustave Doré’s illustration (at the top) of her in Dante’s Inferno is an often used picture for albums by (metal) bands.

You might argue, “But Arachne is a woman! Not a man. While Varys is a man.” Indeed, Varys is not a woman, but he is effeminate and a eunuch. Cersei points out to Tyrion how Varys is not guided by his cock like men such as Tyrion tend to, and Pycelle affirms that poison is a “woman’s weapon”, but als that of eunuchs.

Quote

 

“I have heard it said that poison is a woman’s weapon.”
Pycelle stroked his beard thoughtfully. “It is said. Women, cravens … and eunuchs.” (aGoT, Eddard V)

“Do you know why Varys is so dangerous?”
“Are we playing at riddles now? No.”
“He doesn’t have a cock.”
“Neither do you.” And don’t you just hate that, Cersei?
“Perhaps I’m dangerous too. You, on the other hand, are as big a fool as every other man. That worm between your legs does half your thinking.” (aCoK, Tyrion XII)

 

 

So, if the characters in the books tell each other to equate Varys with a woman, then so should we, and Arachne can be an applicable myth.

The myth is of interest as an origin  and a trickster myth. Myths can be classified by what they aim to explain: order of the world or life, creation, fickleness of the gods, national or moral superiority to other people or civilisations, morality, but also a location’s name or origin of an animal’s known attributes or skills.

Arachne’s myth explains where spiders come from. And of course, Varys’s origin is a hot subject of speculation. Not only does the myth relate the origin of spiders, but Ovid explicitly tells us Arachne’s lineage in his Metamorphosis.

Quote

Arachne’s distinction lay not in her birth or the place that she hailed from but solely her art. Her father, Idmon of Colophon, practised the trade of dyeing wool in Phocaéan purple; her mother was dead but, like her husband, had come from the people. (Metamormphosis, book 6, Arachne, 6-9, Ovid, translation by David Raeburn)

 

When we then check the first ever description of Varys it becomes near tantalizing.

Quote

He wore a vest of woven gold thread over a loose gown of purple silk, and on his feet were pointed slippers of soft velvet. (aGoT, Catelyn IV)

 

Certainly the words weaving, thread and silk connect to spiders. The threads that spiders produce with their glands are silk. A weaving contest between goddess and human is the plot’s subject of the Arachne myth.

Purple in particular is tied to Arachne’s lineage: the color that first comes to mind when we think of Varys. More, while Athena and Arachne weave in shades with such a subtle variation of hues like the eye cannot tell where one color of the rainbow fades into another, both gold and purple are the colors singled out in Ovid’s telling of the contest.

Quote

Webs were woven in threads of Tyrian purple dye and of lighter, more delicate, perceptibly merging shades. […] Their patterns were also shot with flexible threads of gold, as they each spun out an old tale in the west of their separate looms. (Metamormphosis, book 6, Arachne, 61-70, Ovid, translation by David Raeburn)

 

I cannot but wonder whether Varys’s purple silks hint to his origin, his ancestry. But which “thread” to follow? The silk route or the color purple? And if the latter, do we look for a source of the dye, or another association in-world to purple? Since we are considering a spider, perhaps it is best to explore the entire webbing, for his origin may very well be a mixture of several corners of Planetos.

Next up: Varys Web

I will first explore the Spider’s origin, starting with the Silk Route. Using the origin locations of silk, I discuss Varys’s physical features, using parallels and information we have been given about Naath, Qarth and the Grasslands. It highlights the parallel between Varys and the Unsullied, proposes that Qartheen are a leukist race, and how this impacts Varys’s story.

After that should come Part II – The Color Purple: This essay goes into purple flowers, poison, perfume, eye color, dyes and purple dragonblood. We travel to Lys, Myr, Tyrosh and Braavos.

Then we explore The Spider Trickster: Arachne but several other mythical or legendary spiders are tricksters. This essay delves into various types of tricksters and how Varys matches a specific type.

And then a recap with The Spider’s Ragtag Role: incorporates what we learned of the above and how it relates to Aegon.

(So basically an expanded version of what I wrote on page 1 about Varys)