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elder brother jonothor dar

Tywins gamble

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Need some help with timelines but thinking about the war of 5 kings Tywin actions seem ridiculous.

 

Tyrion is take by Cat so he sends the mountain to raid the riverlands as pay back and hopes to lure Ned there and capture and trade him which is reasonable enough.

 

At the same time he raises an army to invade the riverlands?????? Wtf 

 

Reason for this being? Rational behinde raiding and capturing Ned is he can quell Robert so long as Ned and Tyrion are alive or both dead it's tit for tat .  Next scenario is he knows Robert is a dead man walking and is going to wipe out the riverlands in the vain of rains of castamere ok fine, except he is taking on the riverlands with their pants but the north and the vale and north will strike back.

 

Dorne will strike him down as soon as they can which he should be aware of; as things progress he loses Stormlands and Dragonstone.

 

Yes he has the future king but what is his grand plan?  He has Ned and both Stark girls but the North does not back down.

 

So in my mind it gos something like this:-

 

Cat took Tyrion

Raid riverlands draw out Ned and trade for Tyrion

Invade Riverlands to make an example of them and kill Robert to avoid reprisals.

Robert dies take over the throne do what the fuck we like,  Ned captured + one of his girls woops we lost the other.  Hmm Renly ran away to hide in Storms end and his brother is doing some shit on Dragonstone.

Riverlands is conquered let's smash the north before the vale joins them what luck we have got Tyrion back this is going well.

Shit we have lost my other son the Reach has joined the Stormlands they are going to smash everyone  (I mean I'm going to build Stannis up as a BAMF and say he is the real threat for some unknown reason) anyway I am surrounded by people in open war aginst me can things get any worse?

 

This is a much longer post than I anticipated but did he honestly expect to invade a neighbouring region and get away with it scot free knowing that 2 more regions where going to defend it and another itching for vengeance?

 

He seems to hang his hopes up on capturing Ned and having the iron throne on side both of which happens, but it makes no difference he still gets fucked, fine he lost Jaime and Ned which makes negotiating impossible but he still would have needed to smash the north and the vale to get them around the table, what was his plan for the rest of the 7 kingdoms or did he just expect them to carry on as if nothing was happening.

 

Tywin at the least should have secured his rear before advancing so far north, events and circumstances bailed him out

 

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19 minutes ago, elder brother jonothor dar said:

Need some help with timelines but thinking about the war of 5 kings Tywin actions seem ridiculous.

 

Tyrion is take by Cat so he sends the mountain to raid the riverlands as pay back and hopes to lure Ned there and capture and trade him which is reasonable enough.

 

At the same time he raises an army to invade the riverlands?????? Wtf 

Presumably it it to put pressure on the Tullys and Cat so they release Tyrion. Release Tyrion, army is disbanded and back to peace.

19 minutes ago, elder brother jonothor dar said:

 

Next scenario is he knows Robert is a dead man walking

I actually don't think he knew what stupid plan his daughter had cooked up regarding Robert. In an ideal world Cersei would never have cuckolded Robert, produced legitmate royal grandchildren for Tywin.

Tywin does not publicly attack the Riverlands  until they send a 4k  army to the Golden Tooth, his territory. This gives him plausible deniability with Robert as he can say they struck first. 

19 minutes ago, elder brother jonothor dar said:

Dorne will strike him down as soon as they can which he should be aware of; 

Dorne is not only a weak nation, but is no threat to the Westerands or Kings Landing. 

19 minutes ago, elder brother jonothor dar said:

Cat took Tyrion

Raid riverlands draw out Ned and trade for Tyrion

Invade Riverlands to make an example of them and kill Robert to avoid reprisals.

Why would he want to kill Robert? And if his plan was to do that why would he trust that job to his daughter and teenage nephews rather than men with more experience and cunning?

I think you have misread the situation. Both the raids and the raising of the army was done to intimidate the Tully's into releasing Tyrion. 

 

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I believe that the Tullys only put men to guard the Golden tooth passage only after Tywin refused to answer why he was amassing his troops.  They never invaded the westerlands.

 

Tywin invades the riverlands sacking and burning as he went, I am hazy as to whether Robert was still alive or not; agreed this was to put pressure on Cat/Lysa to relase Tyrion but it's extreme to say the least.

 

Robert may be reluctant to intervene but Tywin is effectively starting a civil war

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Tywin didn't know that his grandkids were fathered by jaime. He had no idea about cersei killing robert or helping it along. The whole point of what he did with the riverlands was in response to tyrion getting kidnapped. He couldn't let it go unanswered and wanted a show of force as well.

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54 minutes ago, elder brother jonothor dar said:

I believe that the Tullys only put men to guard the Golden tooth passage only after Tywin refused to answer why he was amassing his troops.  They never invaded the westerlands.

The problem with that is the Golden Tooth is located in the Westerlands, not the Riverlands. http://68.media.tumblr.com/e274b298801892ada35f635e355c3013/tumblr_nepfgk2mz61qmtv72o1_500.jpg

By sending men there to stop Tywin's army from passing through the Golden Tooth pass he was  making an act of war. 

Now I can see why Edmure did this. The Riverlands, as we are told in the first book, has no natural boundaries so he had to go into Westerland territory to make use of theirs. Had it succeeded his 4k army may have been able to keep the 40k Lannister army trapped in the Golden Tooth pass. 

54 minutes ago, elder brother jonothor dar said:

Tywin invades the riverlands sacking and burning as he went, I am hazy as to whether Robert was still alive or not; agreed this was to put pressure on Cat/Lysa to relase Tyrion but it's extreme to say the least.

While Robert is alive Gregor is in the Riverlands, but without banners so he is able to plead innocence to these accusations, after all it would be some peasant farmer's word versus a nobles. 

The actual battle starts around the same time that Robert dies, but Tywin has the excuse that the Tullys instigated it by sending a 4k host on to his territory. 

54 minutes ago, elder brother jonothor dar said:

Robert may be reluctant to intervene but Tywin is effectively starting a civil war

But Tywin would be saying that the Tullys started it. Robert, if he remains true to his character, would force both sides to make peace and want to hear no more about it with both Houses making minor reparations to each other. 

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Dorne was too weak to threaten Tywin. They can't even reach him unless they plan to march through Tyrell territory, which would be unrealistic considering Mace didn't even want just Oberyn and a few retainers riding through. 

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Like others have said Tywin had Gregor raid the Riverlands so Cat and Lysa would release Tyrion after their homeland was attacked. The rest that happened was Tywin trying his best to clean up the mess his children and grandchildren created. Tywin never wanted Ned executed and would have probably kept him as a hostage if he were in KL at the time. He would have tried his best to keep the North/Riverlands/Vale out of the war until he dealt with the Baratheon brothers. 

Tywin never really gambled he just reacted. He got lucky with Renly's death which gave him the Tyrells alliance. He kept Baelish happy to keep the Vale out of the war.

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29 minutes ago, Ralphis Baratheon said:

Like others have said Tywin had Gregor raid the Riverlands so Cat and Lysa would release Tyrion after their homeland was attacked. The rest that happened was Tywin trying his best to clean up the mess his children and grandchildren created.

Who are the others?

On Friday, May 19, 2017 at 3:07 AM, elder brother jonothor dar said:

Tyrion is take by Cat so he sends the mountain to raid the riverlands as pay back and hopes to lure Ned there and capture and trade him which is reasonable enough.

 

At the same time he raises an army to invade the riverlands?????? Wtf 

I get the raid, but it does nothing to relase Tyrion, I get invading the riverlands but it does not get his son back, I get capturing Ned because it would have got Tyrion back eventually (although by rights Lysa would have killed him long before that) except capturing Ned brings down the northen army on him ironically he would have been better off just sacking the riverlands

 

What I don't get is how he thought he could sack the riverlands and get away with it.  Fine for what ever reason we end up with Tywin heading north having effectively conquered the riverlands.  What is his master plan?

 

He wants his son back he has Ned he has the King, Roberts brothers have not declared the northen army are on the way and he should expect the vale to be close behind.  Talk me through from here what does he expect to happen?

 

If Robert was still alive would be still make the same call

Smash the riverlands ✔

Smash the northen army

Smash the vale army

Trade Ned for Tyrion return to the kings peace????

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5 minutes ago, elder brother jonothor dar said:

I get the raid, but it does nothing to relase Tyrion, I get invading the riverlands but it does not get his son back,

They potentially do. Tywin is making threats, the way for Tywin to stop is for Cat and the Tully's to release Tyrion. 

5 minutes ago, elder brother jonothor dar said:

 

I get capturing Ned because it would have got Tyrion back eventually (although by rights Lysa would have killed him long before that)

Tywin has no idea that Tyrion is in the Vale as Cat insinuates that she is heading North. All he can do is threaten her family and the Riverlands to try to get her to release his son. 

5 minutes ago, elder brother jonothor dar said:

except capturing Ned brings down the northen army on him ironically he would have been better off just sacking the riverlands

No, it does not. It takes like a month for the Northern army to raise itself and travel South. In that time a Ned-Tyrion trade would have been long completed and peace restored. 

5 minutes ago, elder brother jonothor dar said:

 

What I don't get is how he thought he could sack the riverlands and get away with it.

Gregor did it without banners. Gregor denies it and then it becomes a peasant's word against a nobles. Robert is more than likely to believe a noble over a peasant. 

5 minutes ago, elder brother jonothor dar said:

 Fine for what ever reason we end up with Tywin heading north having effectively conquered the riverlands.  What is his master plan?

Tywin was never heading North. Not sure were you got this from. 

 

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44 minutes ago, Bernie Mac said:

They potentially do. Tywin is making threats, the way for Tywin to stop is for Cat and the Tully's to release Tyrion. 

I get the threat but fact: it does not

46 minutes ago, Bernie Mac said:

Tywin has no idea that Tyrion is in the Vale as Cat insinuates that she is heading North. All he can do is threaten her family and the Riverlands to try to get her to release hia son

Excellent point had not considered this

48 minutes ago, Bernie Mac said:

No, it does not. It takes like a month for the Northern army to raise itself and travel South. In that time a Ned-Tyrion trade would have been long completed and peace restored. 

Fact yes it did, Robb calls his banners as soon as he gets word that his father has been captured, I agree it took a month to march south.  Fact the trade did not take place in that time frame.  So what you say is logical and probably should have happened but my point is it didn't

55 minutes ago, Bernie Mac said:

Gregor did it without banners. Gregor denies it and then it becomes a peasant's word against a nobles. Robert is more than likely to believe a noble over a peasant.

I am happy with this point, my problem is with him invading with his entire army

57 minutes ago, Bernie Mac said:

Tywin was never heading North. Not sure were you got this from. 

Not actual north no but he heads north to meet the northen army.  Your comment about him not knowing Lysa was involved makes a lot of sense.

 

Smashing the riverlands with their pants down then smashing the the north before making a trade seems to be more plausable.  After all Robb does not call his banners to defend his uncle so the vales involvment is not guaranteed 

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21 minutes ago, elder brother jonothor dar said:

I get the threat but fact: it does not

Yeah, not all plans work. The Tullys were not in a position to free Tyrion (despite Cat using Riverland men to capture him & escort him) as she has relinquished control to Lysa. 

In theory had she still had Tyrion it seems logical that she may have seen reason, especially as Robert was pissed about it  and had ordered Ned to have Cat release the Imp. 

Quote

 

Fact yes it did, Robb calls his banners as soon as he gets word that his father has been captured, I agree it took a month to march south.  Fact the trade did not take place in that time frame.  So what you say is logical and probably should have happened but my point is it didn't

Of course it didn't. Cat took Tyrion to the Vale and gave him away. This is all information that Tywin does not have. The information he has is that Cat Tully captured his son in the Riverlands, using Riverland men and is heading North via the Riverlands. His course of actions is too quickly threaten the Riverlords in the hopes that Cat either  sees sense or the Riverland, men who are escorting her home, free Tyrion for their own good. 

Quote

I am happy with this point, my problem is with him invading with his entire army

He didnt. Initially he send a few hundred. Edmure chose to send a 4k army to the Golden Tooth, Westerland territory, battle broke out and Tywin then has an excuse to go to war. He can say to Robert that they officially broke the peace first by sending an army into his territory while denying that Gregor was raising the Riverlands. 

I think the logical action for the Tullys when faced with war with the West or releasing Tywin's son is the latter. Sending an army West was just idiotic, and kind of showed that the Riverlords and Cat needed more convincing to release Tywin's son so Tywin pressed his advantage at the Golden Tooth. 

Quote

Smashing the riverlands with their pants down then smashing the the north before making a trade seems to be more plausable.  After all Robb does not call his banners to defend his uncle so the vales involvment is not guaranteed 

Tywin did not think the North or Vale would get involved. He tells Tyrion that and Tyrion is amused when Robb actually comes South, proving his father wrong. 

Robb, Cat and Edmure all took actions that Tywin did not expect. Which is probably a common reason why wars have started throughout history, two sides playing chicken, refusing to back down and uping the ante until war is inevitable. 

 

edit: It also important to remember that Lysa no longer gives a shit about her family or the Riverlands. She may have known what was happening in the Riverlands and not done anything or she could have sent her own men to escort Tyrion to safety and sent a raven to Tywin informing him of his son's safe release. 

Had Lysa been less pissed with her family and not had her own agenda war in the Riverlands may have been averted before Robb had even left Winterfell.

Edited by Bernie Mac

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