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What if joffrey never killed ned stark


snow is the man

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What do you think would happen? I think if it had gone like cersei wanted and thought it would the north would have still been angry but would have backed down though I think it would have been wise for the iron throne to have them stay out of the other fights with stannis and such. Stannis would have been beaten bad and if he had killed renly already he still would have been slaughtered. But by making tywin fight rob it gave stannis a real chance. So joffrey essentially set the events that led to his death,tywin's death,ser kevans death,jaime losing his hand,and the death of tens of thousands and severly weakening the iron throne and paving the way for more after stannis and rob were defeated. (I doubt stannis has a chance now)

So joffrey essentially doomed house lannister as well (I don't see them making it through the whole series). What is your thoughts on if joffrey had never killed ned.

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Tough call, I don't think that the North would believe the farce that was Ned's confession and if anything it might prompt Robb to declare for Stannis.  The Lannisters would have to put muscle in the north because even if honorable Ned would play along and keep quiet it wouldn't mean the rest of them would.  Maybe if the North declares for Stannis then Renly sticks with him.  Not sure if he brings in the Tyrells or not.  Melisandre probably has less influence on Stannis because he is less reliant on her.

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the north might not have gone ahead and began to fight the lannisters in earnest, not yet. the north remembers, and they can hold grudges just as well as the lannisters, that whole northern honour ideal they general strive for would not have allowed them to forgive the golden haired shits of casterly rock. but they might have simmered down, chewed on those grievances, and planned for a full, more ready uprising against the iron throne, after the lannisters had expended themselves a good bit against house baratheon. they hot rage over neds unjust death would have likely settled instead into an icy cold resentment for the rest of the kingdoms. 

good chance joffrey might still have died, but a bit later. if tywin and tyrion could have convinced joffrey to give sansa back to the starks, unlikely as that might be, they would have pushed strongly for him marrying margery, as the only girl of his age, of high enough rank to suit lannister ego. she wouldn't have had the foreknowledge of the kind of person joff is from sansa, but once olenna found out from margy's letters, the queen of thorns would seen to it the little shit had died. but with no starks to blame, the lannisters might figure it was the tyrells, then we would have a war between the westerlands and the reach, and that one would a lot bloodier, since the reach can field even more men that the westerlands, and the tyrells are almost as rich, and likely have even more resources, thanthe lannisters. olenna would be clever enough to pull in allies, like dorne, by promising them first shot at gregor, armory, and tywin himself, and maybe offering marriage alliance between one of her grandsons and princess arianne.

the north might still have had to deal with a iron isles raiding spree, but with them in the north, the attacks could actually be met and repulsed. the greyjoys might turn their attention south to easier prey, liek the westerlands. depending on if the lannisters and tyrells were fighting yet, they might start raiding as far south as the arbor, and old town. the north would be patient and wait for the right time to strike. they would, with cat's advice try to bring the riverlands into their fold, problably with success. the vale would have still been under lysa' control, and her neutrality would keep her troops at home, though some of the more independent lords might try to send overt help, small numbers of men, supplies, Intel.

the stormlands would have been trying to recover from the loss of both renly and stannis, and likely are under lannister occupation. see resistance start there.

in the end, the war would be bloodier, but spread out over a longer period of time, but the lannisters would the ones fighting continuously, they do piss folks off, dont they?

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It probably wouldn't have done too much.  Robb and his Tully mother were already in the Riverlands and Robb was winning battles.  Unless all the Lannister forces withdrew from the Riverlands, Robb wasn't going anywhere.

It's also important to remember that, at the time, Edmure was unmarried and had no heirs, so Robb and Cat Tully had their own interests to protect.

Maybe, and it's a maybe, if Cersei had both Sansa and Arya something could have been worked out, but without both girls I doubt it.

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re-assessed: the starks remain in the riverlands, a menacing presence, til eddard is returned, at least until he is safely back in northern hands. under this scenario, would he have agreed to take the black, or would he have been released to the starks in exchange for jaime before hand?

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Tywin’s plan of having Ned take the black was both unrealistic and stupid. The North wouldn’t have allowed it and Mormont would probably close an eye (and provide Ned with food, a horse and an escort) to his escape. Ned on the other hand, knows very well that his boy is so green that he pisses grass. He would want to take command of his own land himself. Even if Ned does takes the black, Renly and Stannis would have sent him their royal pardon which would allow the old wolf to leave the wall with his head held high. 


Robb’s love towards Sansa was never as strong as Ned’s. Therefore its was within Tywin’s interest to release Ned so he can assume command of his own troops and end this madness. Tywin could have exchanged Ned for Jamie but only after the former had bent the knee and had admitted that he fell victim to the Baratheon brothers lies (he'll be reminded that Sansa is still in Lannister's custody). Ned  would remove his son's silly crown and he would lead the Northern army to battle against Stannis and Renly. 

 

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Remember, Gregor Clegane and Amory Lorch were still terrorizing the Riverlands, and Beric Dondarrion and his crew were still opposing them. The war was actually underway, regardless of what the Starks may have done. If Tywin have called off his rabid dogs (and better yet, brought them to justice, but that ain't gonna ever happen), things may have died down.

However, Stannis is still on Dragonstone and has been arming himself and building a navy ever since Jon Arryn's death. And he KNOWS that the new "king" is a bastard born of incest (yucko), because of his collaboration with Arryn. He will try to move against Joffrey the Bastard Kinglet at some point, because it's his responsibility as the legitimate heir to the throne. Would Renly have also declared? Probably - he seems vain enough. So the brother on brother scenario would have happened much as the book describes.

The procession of Lord Eddard Stark towards the Wall would have met with the usual derision and hurled vegetable material on its way out of King's Landing and through the Kingslands, but once they got to the Neck, or even earlier, folks would be turning out to show their support for him and rejection of the vengeful golden-haired toddler on the throne. Heck, the Stark bannermen and smallfolk might have declared Ned "King of the North" even before he reached the Wall! And then we would have had King Eddard and his very capable son Prince Robb leading the armies of the North together on the side of King Stannis.

They might have even picked up Arya while leaving King's Landing and saved her a world of additional trauma.

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There's still the entirely real possibility of Sansa's head on a spike in this.  Unless Petyr decided to play saviour and got her out.

Once Robert died, shit was going to go down. Nobody likes the Lannisters. Ned went south into the middle of a bunch of ongoing intrigues.  Even if he'd stayed in Winterfell, things were going to kick off between the Baratheon boys.

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15 hours ago, snow is the man said:

What do you think would happen? I think if it had gone like cersei wanted and thought it would the north would have still been angry but would have backed down though I think it would have been wise for the iron throne to have them stay out of the other fights with stannis and such. Stannis would have been beaten bad and if he had killed renly already he still would have been slaughtered. But by making tywin fight rob it gave stannis a real chance. So joffrey essentially set the events that led to his death,tywin's death,ser kevans death,jaime losing his hand,and the death of tens of thousands and severly weakening the iron throne and paving the way for more after stannis and rob were defeated. (I doubt stannis has a chance now)

So joffrey essentially doomed house lannister as well (I don't see them making it through the whole series). What is your thoughts on if joffrey had never killed ned.

something would have to happen by Joffs command so that ned would still die and the books would continue as written. Otherwise you would need to rewrite everything 

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2 minutes ago, Dorian Martell's son said:

Otherwise you would need to rewrite everything 

I agree; it would be a different story. But I think that's the point of this speculation!

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Had Joff listened and allowed Ned to take the Black, it would have been on the stipulation that Rob turned his army around and went back North.  They would have used Sansa as a hostage to ensure compliance and there is no way I would send Ned to the Wall by land, there are too many possibilities to get "lost".  So a ship to Eastwatch is the wisest move but not until Rob strikes his banners and heads North

So the next steps are all based on timing, you still have the Battle of Whispering Wood, so Jamie is still captured.  By the time word reaches Rob to lay down his arms so Ned can be sent North, Rob responds with his Jamie for Ned and the girls offer.  Tywin agrees because Jamie is worth everything to him and the quicker he ends the war with the North the faster he can deal with Stannis and Renly.  The Riverlands have been spanked enough, and let's face it, the only reason they were pulled into this was because of Cat and their location, it was easy to unleash Gregor there, so Tywin moves his army to KL. 

 

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If Eddard had not been killed odds are that the Northmen would not be all that trigger happy and accept peace. They would have save the Riverrun by beating Jamie and a switch of Jamie for Eddard and Sansa is highly likely. And I think that someone mentioned past that Eddard showed signs of a blood infection or some such thing after his visit to the royal dungeons. As such Eddard would probably die pretty soon thereafter with no blame on the Lannisters and most likley they would come to terms with each other. Maybe they would go at each other but I suspect that it would only be after some fresh conflict and not a settled one.

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With Ned headed to the Wall, and Jaime in Robb's hands, the stage is set for a deal wherein Jaime is exchanged for the girls (fuzzing over Arya's absence; hopefully she will declare herself once it is announced), and Robb agrees to go North in exchange for that and Ned's continued survival.  Given that Renly and Stannis are not going to merge forces, and may in fact fight against each other, an eventual Lannister victory seems likely.  Whether Robb would become King in the north is debatable (I doubt it), so essentially you have status quo ante where the Lannisters are in charge, Renly and Stannis dead or badly defeated, and the Northerners back North.

1 hour ago, Chris Mormont said:

They would have used Sansa as a hostage to ensure compliance and there is no way I would send Ned to the Wall by land, there are too many possibilities to get "lost".

Ned isn't going to get "lost".  If Ned says he is going to take the black, then Ned is going to take the black.  That is the sort of person he is.  He is not going to renege on a solemn promise.  Period.

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22 minutes ago, SeaWitch said:

Ned could easily have an 'accident'  on his way to the Wall. A Clegane to the face often offends.

Indeed. And by ship, it's amazing how many people get washed overboard during storms - or "storms." But this would largely put us back where we started - with outrage over the unjust death of Ned Stark. The ship scenario would give the Lannisters more time for battles and consolidating power, possibly, over the land scenario, but there would be greater outrage if Ned got "Cleganed".

And the Hound may have left Joffrey's service then and there. THAT would have been a game changer.

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If Ned renounced lands and title for the Watch, does that mean they passed automatically to Robb, or could the Crown try and give the Warden of the North title to someone like the Boltons? That could provoke enough strife to keep them all busy whilst the South squabbled.

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11 minutes ago, SeaWitch said:

f Ned renounced lands and title for the Watch, does that mean they passed automatically to Robb, or could the Crown try and give the Warden of the North title to someone like the Boltons?

Only Ned would lose, and Robb would be the next Lord of Wintrfell/Warden of the North. Just as Jeor Mormont taking the black didn't take Bear Island from the Mormont family. Tywin might very well try to name someone else, but his goal was to halt the violence and keep Joffrey on the throne. Stirring up the ants nest in the North even more would not further that goal. Besides, I don't think the Boltons and Lannisters have become cozy at this point. And Winterfell is still chock full of Starks.

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2 minutes ago, zandru said:

Only Ned would lose, and Robb would be the next Lord of Wintrfell/Warden of the North. Just as Jeor Mormont taking the black didn't take Bear Island from the Mormont family. Tywin might very well try to name someone else, but his goal was to halt the violence and keep Joffrey on the throne. Stirring up the ants nest in the North even more would not further that goal. Besides, I don't think the Boltons and Lannisters have become cozy at this point. And Winterfell is still chock full of Starks.

I was wondering if there was an Act of Attainder because he was accused of treason, and confessed.  The Night Watch seems to be a get out clause for that, then?

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3 minutes ago, SeaWitch said:

was wondering if there was an Act of Attainder because he was accused of treason, and confessed.  The Night Watch seems to be a get out clause for that, then?

I don't actually know. However, if so, it probably wouldn't be in Tywin's interest to exercise it, given the unrest that would have resulted.

Then again, Tywin Lannister probably had little to do with the arrest and sentencing of Ned. He was leading his troops (from the rear) in the field, maybe even out of raven range. The sentencing to the wall seemed to be Varys and Pycelle, and they convinced Cersei, who instructed Joffrey - who decided instead to have his fun.

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