military strengths in westeros, beyond shear numbers

[Adam Yozza]

9 minutes ago, Bernie Mac said:

Based on what. Where in the books does it look like the Manderlys have 1k heavy horse in the  North? We see 300 knights with Wyman, there is zero evidence for 1k. 

When talking to Davos, Wyman remarks that even after his losses in the war he still commands more heavy cavalry than any other single lord in the North. The Bolton's have at least 1000 left; there's no way they have less than 400 returning to the North in Dance plus Ramsay's six hundred

 

[Bernie Mac]

1 minute ago, Adam Yozza said:

The Bolton's have at least 1000 left; there's no way they have less than 400 returning to the North in Dance

How many horse do you think Roose brought south? We are never told, but yes, it is entirely likely that he is returning with less than 500 given that his portion of the Northern strength only had 500 horse to begin with and we know a portion of those freeriders were left with Stout and Condon at the Ruby Ford. 

And again, Wyman makes the distinction of heavy horse. We have seen how useless the heavy horse with Stannis is in the North. The further North you get from White Harbor the less need there is likely to be for a horse that can not operate in the winter. 

Though in fairness there would likely be a huge excess of spare horses at the Twins after the Red Wedding. I'm surprised that Roose's entire army is not mounted on the return journey. 

9 minutes ago, Adam Yozza said:

in Dance plus Ramsay's six hundred

Ramsay has almost 600 men. We have no idea how many of them are horsed. 

[Lord Varys]

2 hours ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

And yet the North produces 3000 amoured lances out of 12000 men at Winterfell. Men no less capable than a southron knight, according to Maester Luwin.

This has nothing to do with anything. We are not talking about numbers here. But Luwin might actually be mistaken, just as Tomard was mistaken about the quality of his fellow guardsmen.

2 hours ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

Lord Sunderland cannot afford to equip his 7 sons as knights, yet Lord Karstark commands 300 of the 3000 armoured lances at Winterfell.

Armored lances are not knights. Else they would be called knights. But even if they were, the I too can command a lot of knights. The question is whether I can feed and equip them. We don't know if those men are freeriders, landed knight equivalents, etc.

But again, this has nothing to do with numbers. We don't care about numbers here.

 

[Moiraine Sedai]

Numbers mainly determine military power.  I don't know that northmen fight better but they had the advantage because they attacked first.  What they did during the rebellion and the wotfk is an invasion of the south.  They were beating up on farm folk.   The south had to play defense in addition to fighting on the battlefields.  The south suffered more than the north.

[Free Northman Reborn]

52 minutes ago, Bernie Mac said:

How many horse do you think Roose brought south? We are never told, but yes, it is entirely likely that he is returning with less than 500 given that his portion of the Northern strength only had 500 horse to begin with and we know a portion of those freeriders were left with Stout and Condon at the Ruby Ford. 

And again, Wyman makes the distinction of heavy horse. We have seen how useless the heavy horse with Stannis is in the North. The further North you get from White Harbor the less need there is likely to be for a horse that can not operate in the winter. 

Though in fairness there would likely be a huge excess of spare horses at the Twins after the Red Wedding. I'm surprised that Roose's entire army is not mounted on the return journey. 

Ramsay has almost 600 men. We have no idea how many of them are horsed. 

Robb left only 10% of his cavalry with Roose Bolton. This included Manderly knights who were smashed by Gregor Clegane when caught on the wrong side of the river, and likely further heavy horse personal guards for each of the lords in that army, including lords Glover, Tallhart, Hornwood, Cerwyn, Harrion Karstark etc. So of the 600 original cavalry with Roose at the Green Fork, probably close to 200 were from an assortment of other Houses.

Yet, there is every reason to conclude that Roose contributed a significant portion of the 3000 armoured lances at Winterfell. At least 25% of the total Bolton force had to be armoured lances, and likely more, considering that the Karstarks did not meet the 25% average ratio (3000/12000), and the Mormonts and Mountain Clans are highly unlikely to have contributed 25% heavy horse either. That means the remaining Houses had to contribute in excess of a 25% ratio.

So the logical conclusion is that a significant number of the Bolton cavalry went with Robb to the West, and only rejoined Roose at the Twins. Meaning they need to be added to the 3500 he brought back from Harrenhal.

So if we have say 400 Bolton cavalry in the 3500, then we still need to add whatever returning Bolton cavalry came with Robb, to get to the total remaining Bolton cavalry that returned from the South. A number likely around 600. To which we need to add Ramsay's force, which was described in battle as charging, wheeling and charging repeatedly at Rodrik's forces at Wintertown.

Roose very easily could have a thousand Bolton armoured lances left.

And Manderly has more.

[Free Northman Reborn]

20 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

This has nothing to do with anything. We are not talking about numbers here. But Luwin might actually be mistaken, just as Tomard was mistaken about the quality of his fellow guardsmen.

Armored lances are not knights. Else they would be called knights. But even if they were, the I too can command a lot of knights. The question is whether I can feed and equip them. We don't know if those men are freeriders, landed knight equivalents, etc.

But again, this has nothing to do with numbers. We don't care about numbers here.

 

How about the educated Maester Luwin is right and you are wrong. Difficult to believe?

[Bernie Mac]

 

2 minutes ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

So if we have say 400 Bolton cavalry in the 3500, then we still need to add whatever returning Bolton cavalry came with Robb, to get to the total remaining Bolton cavalry that returned from the South. A number likely around 600. To which we need to add Ramsay's force, which was described in battle as charging, wheeling and charging repeatedly at Rodrik's forces at Wintertown.

I'm sorry, but you are still plucking numbers from thin air. For all you know the Boltons may have supplied Robb with the same amount of horse as the Karstarks did, maybe even less. There is no source from the books for the numbers you are giving. 

2 minutes ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

Roose very easily could have a thousand Bolton armoured lances left.

And Manderly has more.

And he could have as few as 400 left. We really don't know, so guessing that the North have several thousand armoured lance left based on nothing more than gut is pointless. 

[Free Northman Reborn]

10 minutes ago, Bernie Mac said:

 

I'm sorry, but you are still plucking numbers from thin air. For all you know the Boltons may have supplied Robb with the same amount of horse as the Karstarks did, maybe even less. There is no source from the books for the numbers you are giving. 

And he could have as few as 400 left. We really don't know, so guessing that the North have several thousand armoured lance left based on nothing more than gut is pointless. 

Sorry, but he couldn't.

Who are the most powerful Houses in the North? Both historically and currently? The Boltons, Manderlys and Dustins top that list.

Consider the 3000 armoured lances at Winterfell. Who do you imagine contributed that heavy horse?

The Karstarks brought only 300, so that leaves 2700 from the remaining Houses. Do you imagine the Mormonts own very many heavy horse? And brought them over on fishing sloops? How about the Mountain Clans, who don't own ANY heavy horse?

That leaves the remaining Houses gathered at Winterfell to have contributed on average around 30% of their numbers as armoured lances. Of all the Houses gathered there, the Starks and Boltons are the most likely to have powerful militaries, and therefore able to contribute significant heavy horse.

Even if they were just average, they would need a 25% heavy horse ratio, to fit in with the Winterfell numbers. But since some Houses had to exceed the average, to  make up for those who brought less, well, the Boltons and Starks are by far the most likely to have done so, of the Houses gathered there.

To try and pretend otherwise is simply obtuse.

[Bernie Mac]

23 minutes ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

 

Consider the 3000 armoured lances at Winterfell. Who do you imagine contributed that heavy horse?

Most likely the Starks contributed a large amount of it., possibly 1k. 300 from the Karstarks leaving 1.7k between the Hornwoods, Boltons, Umbers, Cerwyns, Glovers and Tallharts. 

The Mormonts and Mountain Clans would be minimal. 

Bizarrely we never hear anything about the Umbers in Roose's army either from Tyrion or Arya during her stay at Harrenhal, yet they are significant enough to control one of the Towers at Moat Cailin. It may well be that they supplied a substantial amount of horse and very little infantry. I'd say around 500. 

Leaving the Botlons, Hornwoods, Cerwyns, Glovers and Tallharts around 200 - 400 each

It is also important to know that at no point are told that the almost 600 with Ramsay are horsed (or even heavy horsed). Yet for some reason that is taken as canon by some. Considering how quickly the Karstarks, Umbers and Boltons were able to arrive at Winterfell in AGOT I see no problem with them doing the same with Reek. 

23 minutes ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

 

To try and pretend otherwise is simply obtuse.

No offence, but you have stated that there are several thousand horse left in the North and there is nothing in ADWD to suggest that. And your only evidence is plucking numbers out of thin air about how many heavy horse the Boltons have just because it is canon that the Manderlys have more heavy horse them them. It is a bizarre way to prove your point as it is not baaed on evidence from the books but wishful thinking. 

[Free Northman Reborn]

1 hour ago, Bernie Mac said:

Most likely the Starks contributed a large amount of it., possibly 1k. 300 from the Karstarks leaving 1.7k between the Hornwoods, Boltons, Umbers, Cerwyns, Glovers and Tallharts. 

The Mormonts and Mountain Clans would be minimal. 

Bizarrely we never hear anything about the Umbers in Roose's army either from Tyrion or Arya during her stay at Harrenhal, yet they are significant enough to control one of the Towers at Moat Cailin. It may well be that they supplied a substantial amount of horse and very little infantry. I'd say around 500. 

Leaving the Botlons, Hornwoods, Cerwyns, Glovers and Tallharts around 200 - 400 each

It is also important to know that at no point are told that the almost 600 with Ramsay are horsed (or even heavy horsed). Yet for some reason that is taken as canon by some. Considering how quickly the Karstarks, Umbers and Boltons were able to arrive at Winterfell in AGOT I see no problem with them doing the same with Reek. 

No offence, but you have stated that there are several thousand horse left in the North and there is nothing in ADWD to suggest that. And your only evidence is plucking numbers out of thin air about how many heavy horse the Boltons have just because it is canon that the Manderlys have more heavy horse them them. It is a bizarre way to prove your point as it is not baaed on evidence from the books but wishful thinking. 

Interesting response. A few noteworthy aspects thereof:

Despite your original contention that heavy horse should grow scarcer the farther North a lord is located, you claim that the Umbers likely contributed more heavy horse than the Boltons. With no evidence to back it up. This while the Umbers are the northernmost of all the mainland Stark bannermen.

Despite the Boltons being noted as the Starks' chief rivals in the North, you believe that they would have contributed heavy horse in similar numbers to relatively minor Houses in the North, such as the Hornwoods, Cerwyns, Glovers and Tallharts.

Despite the entire battle at Wintertown being described as Ramsay's forces charging on horseback at Rodrik's dismounted forces, you choose to interpret it as the Boltons having minimal mounted lancers in that host.

I could go on, but it seems clear that you have a specific agenda, which is to minimize the potential Bolton cavalry numbers at all costs, in order to reduce the implications of Manderly's assessment of his own heavy cavalry strength, which in turn is aimed at reducing the potential strength of the North.

Let's just agree to disagree then, so we both stop wasting our time.

[Graydon Hicks]

17 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

It is quite clear that the fighting men from the richer regions and richer houses are, on average, better equipped than those of the poorer regions and houses. That much is clear. Especially the North and Dorne spring to mind here. The Dornishmen have great horses but don't seem to have all that many armored knights in comparison to, say, the Reach. It is the same with the North. Some of the great houses there would be able to feed a certain number of household knight equivalents riding large and powerfully armored chargers, but this is not the case for, say, the clansmen, or the lesser houses of the North.

The Mormonts may be able to afford reasonably good armor and horses for themselves but not for the majority of their men.

The best equipment is in the hands of the people of the richest houses - the Lannisters, Hightowers, Tyrells, members of the royal family, etc. Tobho Mott, one of the finest armorers in Westeros, is producing his stuff for the likes of Tywin Lannister, Jon Arryn, Renly, and Loras Tyrell.

You can see the advantage that comes with a lot of money in the description of Tywin's army in AGoT. The West is a very wealthy region, both in gold and crops, and this is reflected by the military resources of the Lords of the West.

It may be that the average Northmen in some dangerous region is, on average, more often forced to fight for his life than the average Westerman. That could easily enough mean that the average Northman has more of a killer instinct than the average Northman. But the West should have, on average, more professional and better equipped men-at-arms simply because they have more money.

thats very true, but i think that the north has a larger pool of at least semi-skilled men to draw from for reserves, while the westerlands would keep their active troops better trained, but all their reserves are purely peasant levies, with no skill or training what so ever, they just shove pike or sword in his hands and push him out front. so, in a analyzed fight, if the north could survive and whittle down the lannister main body, it would force to the westerlands to rely on untrained peasants, compared to generally self-reliant and more combat ready northmen, even if the northerners are less professionally trained and equipped. 

[Graydon Hicks]

16 hours ago, elder brother jonothor dar said:

The Starks have ruled the north almost uncontested for a 1000 years since the red kings bent the knee, yes they had all those raids you mentioned on the periphery but the sheer size of the north means for the most part have not seen confict in a 1000 years.  Compare that to the rest of 7 kingdoms.  Fine they would need to raise levies for their various wars but their homeland for the most part is secure.

but, im not talking full army training for each man because of external threats. there are always plenty of wildings attacks and lots brigands and bandits. so those interanl, if minor threats, are still quite viable for a regular commoners in the north to deal with.

[Graydon Hicks]

12 hours ago, Coolbeard the Exile said:

North - More fierce and brave than most but less disciplined and well equipped than the other regions.

Riverlands - I would say pretty middle tier.

Vale - They have the strongest knightly traditions and from that i suspect they are braver and more skilled than the average region when it comes to warfare.

Iron Islands - the greatest sea power in Westeros, not very good in a pitched land battle as they are not disciplined and have no cavalry.

Westerlands - Most well equipped, supplied and disciplined troops in Westeros.

Crownlands - They have a great fleet but probably weakest army in both size and equipment. The goldcloaks are not real soldiers, men of the narrow sea are poor and have almost no cavalry and the people of crackclaw point are the same. Not a lot of well disciplined and equiped troops at all.

Stormlands - The are emphasized to have the greatest warriors in Westeros and have a very strong martial tradition. 

Reach - Strong knightly tradition and have by far the most ammount of troops. Well supplied and equipped troops i would say.

Dorne - Not a lot of heavy cavalry, lightly equipped, small army, no fleet but great at skirmishing.

this is exactly what i was hoping the discussion to cover. while numbers count, lol, for a lot in a war of this technological level, they arent everything.

[Bernie Mac]

1 hour ago, Graydon Hicks said:

but, im not talking full army training for each man because of external threats. there are always plenty of wildings attacks and lots brigands and bandits. so those interanl, if minor threats, are still quite viable for a regular commoners in the north to deal with.

We know that the people of the New Gift and the people of the west coast of the North simply moved away from those locations rather than deal with Wildling and Ironborn attacks. The percentage of the Northern population who has to deal with such attacks is likely no bigger than the Vale population dealing with the Mountain Clans or the  West  dealing with the neighbouring Ironborn, or even the Reach and Stormlands who deal with bandits from the Red Mountains. 

The Ironborn with Theon in ACOK certainly don't think the people of the Northern coast are anything special, they deal with them incredibly easily.

Your average peasant is going to be the same throughout the realm as all were made to work their asses off and all expected their Nobles to protect them from external threats.

[Free Northman Reborn]

36 minutes ago, Bernie Mac said:

We know that the people of the New Gift and the people of the west coast of the North simply moved away from those locations rather than deal with Wildling and Ironborn attacks. The percentage of the Northern population who has to deal with such attacks is likely no bigger than the Vale population dealing with the Mountain Clans or the  West  dealing with the neighbouring Ironborn, or even the Reach and Stormlands who deal with bandits from the Red Mountains. 

The Ironborn with Theon in ACOK certainly don't think the people of the Northern coast are anything special, they deal with them incredibly easily.

Your average peasant is going to be the same throughout the realm as all were made to work their asses off and all expected their Nobles to protect them from external threats.

Agree. In terms of fighting skills peasants would largely be pretty similar across Westeros.

[Graydon Hicks]

but in the north, with the great distances between homes and such, it takes longer for the local lord to send help, than it would in any other of the southern realms. the population is just to wide spread. that kind of isolation tends to breed a certain amount of self-reliance, both in terms of economical support, as well and military. the local farmer in the north is far more likely to know how to defend himself than his counterpart in the south, where local help is far closer.

[Free Northman Reborn]

2 minutes ago, Graydon Hicks said:

but in the north, with the great distances between homes and such, it takes longer for the local lord to send help, than it would in any other of the southern realms. the population is just to wide spread. that kind of isolation tends to breed a certain amount of self-reliance, both in terms of economical support, as well and military. the local farmer in the north is far more likely to know how to defend himself than his counterpart in the south, where local help is far closer.

I can buy that. But he is still no match for a trained, properly equipped warrior however.

[Bernie Mac]

18 minutes ago, Graydon Hicks said:

but in the north, with the great distances between homes and such, it takes longer for the local lord to send help, than it would in any other of the southern realms.

And by the same token they'd be more isolated from attack than a packed Riverlands or Reach, facing less bandits. It is swings and roundabouts. 

Quote

 

the population is just to wide spread. that kind of isolation tends to breed a certain amount of self-reliance, both in terms of economical support, as well and military.

That is what these medieval  Lords were there for, to protect their serfs. The Umbers complain that the Greatjon took too many men and they are now vulnerable to wildling raids, the farmers are not really capable of picking up the slack as they have more important things to be doing. 

The farmers are not training to fight, they are bringing in crops to feed the men who do. That is the system and the system if pretty consistent throughout the realm. And as I pointed out with the Vale, Reach and Westerlands, many of these regions are going to have their Wildling equivalents. 

Quote

the local farmer in the north is far more likely to know how to defend himself than his counterpart in the south, where local help is far closer.

And trouble in the South is likely to be more frequent. The middle ages would not have farmers looking our for themselves, they'd be paying taxes and expecting their local Lord to have his men do it for them. 

Your average Scottish 13th century farmer was no tougher than his Midland counterpart. 

 

edit: and by this logic the Riverlands, where the Westeros civil wars are often fought, should have the toughest people in Westeros. They don't. 

[Graydon Hicks]

in terms of equipment and training, their are likely on par with all the other levies in westeros, save the reach and westerlands. the sheer wealth of those two realms would mean generally better equipment and moderately better training, but on individual skill, they would be a bit better then their counterparts.

[Bernie Mac]

11 hours ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

Interesting response. A few noteworthy aspects thereof:

Despite your original contention that heavy horse should grow scarcer the farther North a lord is located, you claim that the Umbers likely contributed more heavy horse than the Boltons.

No, try reading it again. I stated that they likely supplied more horse, heavy horse was not mentioned. 

And yeah it is more than possible that they sent a greater percentage of their horse South with Robb than the Boltons did. 

11 hours ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

 

With no evidence to back it up.

I actually did use evidence. The Umbers are notable absent from every description of the infantry army with Roose. Either they sent few men or most of their men were horsed (and please note just horsed,I am making no comment on them being heavy horsed). 

11 hours ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

 

This while the Umbers are the northernmost of all the mainland Stark bannermen.

Which has what to do with my point? I didnt say the North lacks horse, we see quite clearly the some horses are effective in Winter. But heavy horse seems to be quite useless. 

11 hours ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

Despite the Boltons being noted as the Starks' chief rivals in the North,

eh? What does this have to do with horse? The Manderlys are meant to be the richest right? How many horse did they supply?

11 hours ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

 

you believe that they would have contributed heavy horse in similar numbers to relatively minor Houses in the North, such as the Hornwoods, Cerwyns, Glovers and Tallharts.

If you have evidence from the books contradicting this, then by all means use it. 

11 hours ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

Despite the entire battle at Wintertown being described as Ramsay's forces charging on horseback at Rodrik's dismounted forces,

No it does not. Horseback is not mentioned. Stop making things up to suit your agenda. 

"Shouts and screams rang through the cold autumn air. Ser Rodrik seemed to have the numbers, but the Dreadfort men were better led, and had taken the others unawares. Theon watched them charge and wheel and charge again, chopping the larger force to bloody pieces every time they tried to form up between the houses."

A soldier is quite capable of charging with out the need of a horse. There were horses on both sides, we have no idea how many of Ramsay's  men were horsed. As I said in my post, it could be 600 it could be 100, we really don't know. You using them as evidence is disingenuous. 

11 hours ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

you choose to interpret it as the Boltons having minimal mounted lancers in that host.

Minimal to who? I put their mounted host as around the same as the Manderlys, Karstarks, Hornwoods, Cerweyns. Not less than, the same. 

11 hours ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

I could go on, but it seems clear that you have a specific agenda, which is to minimize the potential Bolton cavalry numbers at all costs, in order to reduce the implications of Manderly's assessment of his own heavy cavalry strength, which in turn is aimed at reducing the potential strength of the North.

My agenda is asking for evidence for the several thousand heavy horse remaining in the North after Robb left, Your inability to provide any is quite telling.

11 hours ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

Let's just agree to disagree then, so we both stop wasting our time.

Then don't reply. I always find it odd when people do this. You think this is wasting your time, then don't respond to my entire post and then say so.