military strengths in westeros, beyond shear numbers

[Coolbeard the Exile]

On 2017-05-27 at 10:49 AM, Graydon Hicks said:

you, know, when i started this thread, i was hoping to avoid the getting bogged down arguments about the number in the military. i just wanted to discuss the specializations of the realms in war. who was most well known for cavalry, for heavy infantry, for independent operation, for archers, for scouts. that kind of thing. i believe we have gotten rather far off topic a bit. 

How do people find so much to discuss when it comes to the topic even lol?

[Lord Varys]

3 hours ago, direpupy said:

certainly they grow food we see some of that in the arrianne chapter where they try to meet up with some of the orphans during her atempt to make myrcella queen.

But in order for there to be more food then would be produced in the North you would most definetly need a river not unlike the Nile and the Greenblood is far from that.

The Greenblood isn't the Rhoyne, but it is the biggest river of Dorne. And the shores of the Greenblood as well as the northeastern reaches of Dorne are the most fertile regions. That's the region where there once was that First Men realm with the king that was elected.

Dorne produces enough wine and oranges to export them to other regions (and even to Essos where the wine is concerned). The North doesn't exactly export food

3 hours ago, direpupy said:

The Greenblood also does not start in the mountains it is a coming together of the Scourge and the Vaith rivers and both these rivers start in the desert presumably from oasis that are there. Also where do you get it from that big ships can sail up the Greenblood, as far as i know the boats there are al poleboats not unlike the Shy Maid, so not very big at all.

The water that feeds the rivers has to come somewhere. Oases usually don't feed big rivers.

Alyn Velaryon broke the Planky Town and then the Targaryen fleet controlled the Greenblood, effectively cutting Dorne in half. That was a huge part of Daeron I's victory over Dorne. If the Greenblood wasn't deep enough to be navigable by big ships up to where the Vaith and the Scourge merge that whole thing wouldn't have worked.

[Free Northman Reborn]

13 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

The Greenblood isn't the Rhoyne, but it is the biggest river of Dorne. And the shores of the Greenblood as well as the northeastern reaches of Dorne are the most fertile regions. That's the region where there once was that First Men realm with the king that was elected.

Dorne produces enough wine and oranges to export them to other regions (and even to Essos where the wine is concerned). The North doesn't exactly export food

The water that feeds the rivers has to come somewhere. Oases usually don't feed big rivers.

Alyn Velaryon broke the Planky Town and then the Targaryen fleet controlled the Greenblood, effectively cutting Dorne in half. That was a huge part of Daeron I's victory over Dorne. If the Greenblood wasn't deep enough to be navigable by big ships up to where the Vaith and the Scourge merge that whole thing wouldn't have worked.

I don't think anyone disputes that the shores of the biggest river in Dorne is the most fertile part of Dorne. That is pretty logical. The question related to the extent of this fertility. But I don't think it needs to be disparaged at all. It just should not be exxagerated either.

As for oranges and wine - these are luxury products, worth exporting. And easy to export, if they're grown along the banks of the Greenblood. Just like the North exports beer, since the price per ton makes it worth the transport cost. We don't hear of Dorne exporting grain for example, which is not such a luxury item, and which would mostly be produced for local consumption. 

And as I'm sure I've said upthread somewhere, most of the produce of the North would logistically not be viable as a trade item to be transported overland for vast distances before reaching White Harbor for export. Unless there is sufficient demand to cover the extra transport costs.

Who is going to import apples from the Gift (Bran saw abandoned orchards there) if the apples have to be transported for thousands of miles, when cheaper apples can be sourced from the Riverlands or Vale?

Export goods would be limited to items that the North can provide more cost effectively than a competitor. Which means price net of transport costs. So basically, items for which the demand cannot be met from cheaper markets, or items that have long storage lives, like hides, furs, lumber etc.

Or high value items like the beer Davos mentioned in White Harbor. Otherwise the massive transport distances would make all exports uncompetitive.

[Lord Varys]

1 hour ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

As for oranges and wine - these are luxury products, worth exporting. And easy to export, if they're grown along the banks of the Greenblood.

To the Dornishmen and any other group of people living in the South neither oranges nor wine would be luxury goods. They would be part of the common diet of the people living there. And they would most likely only export those oranges and wine they don't want to consume themselves.

1 hour ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

Just like the North exports beer, since the price per ton makes it worth the transport cost. We don't hear of Dorne exporting grain for example, which is not such a luxury item, and which would mostly be produced for local consumption. 

Who should want to export grain, anyway? This is not an economically complex world. People who can't grow, hunt, or fish their food will die. They are not dependent on food imports anyway. Perhaps they are in winter, but then they just die. The idea that people in winter can go around try to buy grain or any food is pretty far-fetched. Perhaps it works locally, perhaps not. We don't know how mobile people are in winter. 

The Free Cities also grow most of their food in their hinterlands. The Ghiscari cities are dependent on the slave trade but even they aren't dependent on food imports like Rome was in antiquity and pretty much any major city is today.

1 hour ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

And as I'm sure I've said upthread somewhere, most of the produce of the North would logistically not be viable as a trade item to be transported overland for vast distances before reaching White Harbor for export. Unless there is sufficient demand to cover the extra transport costs.

The only people doing some real trading would be people in harbors. That's where the merchants are. And they would mostly be private enterprises done by commoners. Whatever beer White Harbor might be exporting would be produced in White Harbor, or in the lands around the city. 

The North may sit on a lot of wealth in wood or even metals and other things, but nothing indicates that there is any developed economy up there, or anywhere in Westeros outside the big cities.

Those regions where there are a lot of market towns and waterways to transport goods (like the Riverlands and the Reach) are likely to have some trade stretching across larger areas, but the idea that there is a lot of trade going on in backwater regions is not very likely.

[Graydon Hicks]

6 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

To the Dornishmen and any other group of people living in the South neither oranges nor wine would be luxury goods. They would be part of the common diet of the people living there. And they would most likely only export those oranges and wine they don't want to consume themselves.

Who should want to export grain, anyway? This is not an economically complex world. People who can't grow, hunt, or fish their food will die. They are not dependent on food imports anyway. Perhaps they are in winter, but then they just die. The idea that people in winter can go around try to buy grain or any food is pretty far-fetched. Perhaps it works locally, perhaps not. We don't know how mobile people are in winter. 

The Free Cities also grow most of their food in their hinterlands. The Ghiscari cities are dependent on the slave trade but even they aren't dependent on food imports like Rome was in antiquity and pretty much any major city is today.

The only people doing some real trading would be people in harbors. That's where the merchants are. And they would mostly be private enterprises done by commoners. Whatever beer White Harbor might be exporting would be produced in White Harbor, or in the lands around the city. 

The North may sit on a lot of wealth in wood or even metals and other things, but nothing indicates that there is any developed economy up there, or anywhere in Westeros outside the big cities.

Those regions where there are a lot of market towns and waterways to transport goods (like the Riverlands and the Reach) are likely to have some trade stretching across larger areas, but the idea that there is a lot of trade going on in backwater regions is not very likely.

now, you are forgetting that the free cities control large tracts of land around their respective capitals, whre they grow a great deal of food to feed the large urban populations. in fat, i read somewhere that kevan lannister was discussing purchasing grain from the free cities in preparation for the long winter, since the wars have cost them much of the time and man power that would be otherwise working the farms and fields. so the free cities do export food stuffs that produce themselves, likely trading such items back and forth with each other, and to the other cities and city states of essos. in fact, ive been wondering just how much do the funky seasons affect essos? do they even experience the long winters? i dont think ive ever read or heard anyone from essos talk about preparing for winter.

[Free Northman Reborn]

10 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

To the Dornishmen and any other group of people living in the South neither oranges nor wine would be luxury goods. They would be part of the common diet of the people living there. And they would most likely only export those oranges and wine they don't want to consume themselves.

Who should want to export grain, anyway? This is not an economically complex world. People who can't grow, hunt, or fish their food will die. They are not dependent on food imports anyway. Perhaps they are in winter, but then they just die. The idea that people in winter can go around try to buy grain or any food is pretty far-fetched. Perhaps it works locally, perhaps not. We don't know how mobile people are in winter. 

The Free Cities also grow most of their food in their hinterlands. The Ghiscari cities are dependent on the slave trade but even they aren't dependent on food imports like Rome was in antiquity and pretty much any major city is today.

The only people doing some real trading would be people in harbors. That's where the merchants are. And they would mostly be private enterprises done by commoners. Whatever beer White Harbor might be exporting would be produced in White Harbor, or in the lands around the city. 

The North may sit on a lot of wealth in wood or even metals and other things, but nothing indicates that there is any developed economy up there, or anywhere in Westeros outside the big cities.

Those regions where there are a lot of market towns and waterways to transport goods (like the Riverlands and the Reach) are likely to have some trade stretching across larger areas, but the idea that there is a lot of trade going on in backwater regions is not very likely.

Well I basically agree with all of this. My point on the luxury good issue was however not the one you responded to. My point was that something needs to have sufficient value in the export market to cover the cost of transport. If oranges and wine are sufficiently sought after, then they will fetch a high enough price to be viable export goods. If not, they will not be exported.

And regarding the resources of the North, I said the same thing you did. Which is that the vast majority of Northern produce will not reach export markets, partly due to impractical transport distances.

That does not mean that the goods are not produced, however. They are just produced for internal consumption. I imagine that anything produced along the White Knife River basin will be the most likely goods for export, as the river runner boats the Manderlys operate can easily transport such goods to their port. I'd imagine even lumber gets floated down river. Note for example that based on Rodrik's instruction the Umbers provided the lumber with which the Manderlys built their fleet. So clearly there was a way to transport these goods to the White Harbor shipyards. Likely via the Last River down to the sea, and then from there by ship to White Harbor. Or alternatively, to the headwaters of the White Knife (on the Long Lake), where it was transported down river to White Harbor. Whichever route was most practical.

[Lord Varys]

3 hours ago, Graydon Hicks said:

now, you are forgetting that the free cities control large tracts of land around their respective capitals, whre they grow a great deal of food to feed the large urban populations. in fat, i read somewhere that kevan lannister was discussing purchasing grain from the free cities in preparation for the long winter, since the wars have cost them much of the time and man power that would be otherwise working the farms and fields. so the free cities do export food stuffs that produce themselves, likely trading such items back and forth with each other, and to the other cities and city states of essos. in fact, ive been wondering just how much do the funky seasons affect essos? do they even experience the long winters? i dont think ive ever read or heard anyone from essos talk about preparing for winter.

Kevan talks about taking additional loans from the Free Cities, but there is no talk about purchasing food. If their lands are pretty fertile - which is not unlikely - they certainly could produce enough food to sell a good portion of it.

But it honestly seems that all the goods the Free Cities produce are supposed to make a profit. The idea that those places could be a source for food for the general population during starvation in winter is not particularly likely. Unless the lords were willing to pay a lot of coin for that stuff only to then hand it to their smallfolk essentially for free it is not going to help anyone in winter.

The seasons do affect Essos, too. For instance, the lagoon of Braavos is freezing over in Arya's chapters and the Dothraki Sea is dying in Dany's last chapter. But the lands there are farther south. Winter is not going to be as hard there as it is in the North.

10 minutes ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

They are just produced for internal consumption. I imagine that anything produced along the White Knife River basin will be the most likely goods for export, as the river runner boats the Manderlys operate can easily transport such goods to their port.

But there is no indication that there any villages or places along the White Knife where a lot of stuff is produced. If people are living there - which is likely - they will be small settlements. International or even regional trade is very expensive to start, and the Manderlys don't even have a large trading fleet.

The people there might sell the stuff they have to ships that call upon them, but there is small chance that there is international trade going on that basis. Whatever export goods there are to have been in the North would be collected by traders calling on Eastwatch and White Harbor.

10 minutes ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

I'd imagine even lumber gets floated down river. Note for example that based on Rodrik's instruction the Umbers provided the lumber with which the Manderlys built their fleet. So clearly there was a way to transport these goods to the White Harbor shipyards. Likely via the Last River down to the sea, and then from there by ship to White Harbor. Or alternatively, to the headwaters of the White Knife (on the Long Lake), where it was transported down river to White Harbor. Whichever route was most practical.

Rodrik suggesting stuff like that doesn't make it likely that this actually happened. The wood would first have to be chopped down, transported, and then the Manderly men would have to build ships. You do not that only a few months passed between the harvest feast where Rodrik and Wyman talk about this and the end of ASoS. And the ships are already completed by the time Davos arrives at White Harbor.

They have ships, but it is more likely they built them with wood they got from their own lands or close by. A lot of Umber men went off to war with Robb, and whoever remained would have been occupied with the last harvest. 

[Graydon Hicks]

and there are likely still more resource in the north that aren't exploited simply because there isnt the population to make full use of them. outside of dorne, it is the least developed of the realms, so i actually wouldnt be surprised if there was large deposits of ore in the mountains east of queenscrown. the northern fields could likely support a healthy amount of high latitude grains. im not a botanist or farmer, but doesnt rye or barley grow reasonably well in those kind of temperatures? and give that the only real source of lumber in western essos is quohor, i bet many of the coastal cities of the narrow sea have a hefty appetite for wood.

but it does seem that outside the manderlys of white harbour, most northern lords dont seem to concern themselves with trade. not that money isnt important to them, but i dont think it registers in their minds on the same level of priority as it does with the southern lords.

[Graydon Hicks]

8 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

The seasons do affect Essos, too. For instance, the lagoon of Braavos is freezing over in Arya's chapters and the Dothraki Sea is dying in Dany's last chapter. But the lands there are farther south. Winter is not going to be as hard there as it is in the North.

it also helps them that they dont have a full land connection to the deep north. the northern border of essos stops at the shivering sea, and i bet that the currents and weather patterns off the ocean do a lot to blunt the effect. look at the british isles: they are an equal latitude with scandinavia, and a healthy chunk of russia/siberia, but they dont have nearly the same degree of freezing weather that either of those locations have, because the ocean climate mitigates the cold. granted, essos is not an island, but the sheer amount of water separating them from the arctic circle of their world probably does much the same thing.

[Lord Varys]

2 minutes ago, Graydon Hicks said:

it also helps them that they dont have a full land connection to the deep north. the northern border of essos stops at the shivering sea, and i bet that the currents and weather patterns off the ocean do a lot to blunt the effect. look at the british isles: they are an equal latitude with scandinavia, and a healthy chunk of russia/siberia, but they dont have nearly the same degree of freezing weather that either of those locations have, because the ocean climate mitigates the cold. granted, essos is not an island, but the sheer amount of water separating them from the arctic circle of their world probably does much the same thing.

We have to wait and see how much winter affects Essos. But if it is snowing in KL it should snow in Pentos, too, sooner or later. And if there is snow in Dorne (which is very unusual but very likely to happen this winter) then even Volantis, Lys, and the Orange Coast might be affected. They are even further down south and the climate there during a Westerosi autumn seems to be comparable to India, with even the nights being terrible hot and damp.

Winter is not likely going to strike there soon. But eventually it will. At least if the Others come down south.

[direpupy]

15 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

The Greenblood isn't the Rhoyne, but it is the biggest river of Dorne. And the shores of the Greenblood as well as the northeastern reaches of Dorne are the most fertile regions. That's the region where there once was that First Men realm with the king that was elected.

Dorne produces enough wine and oranges to export them to other regions (and even to Essos where the wine is concerned). The North doesn't exactly export food

The water that feeds the rivers has to come somewhere. Oases usually don't feed big rivers.

Alyn Velaryon broke the Planky Town and then the Targaryen fleet controlled the Greenblood, effectively cutting Dorne in half. That was a huge part of Daeron I's victory over Dorne. If the Greenblood wasn't deep enough to be navigable by big ships up to where the Vaith and the Scourge merge that whole thing wouldn't have worked.

Like Free Northman said nobody disputes that food is grown along the Greenblood, but its the amount of food you suggest that i think is very unlikely.

As to Alyn Velaryon yes he broke the planky town and sailed up the Green blood. But in wat? And how far up did he get?

A galley has a low draft but that is the reason trade is done in cogs and carracks and i doubt they could sail up the Greenblood.

Then there is the question of how far he got up the Greenblood a few miles or al the way to Godsgrace? We do not know.

I looked up the relevant quote's from the books.

A Dance with Dragons - Jon IV

"When the Young Dragon conquered Dorne, he used a goat track to bypass the Dornish watchtowers on the Boneway."

"I know that tale as well, but Daeron made too much of it in that vainglorious book of his. Ships won that war, not goat tracks. Oakenfist broke the Planky Town and swept halfway up the Greenblood whilst the main Dornish strength was engaged in the Prince's Pass." Stannis drummed his fingers on the map. "These mountain lords will not hinder my passage?"

So here whe have Stannis saying he got up to half way. But no mention of wheter it was with galleys or ships with a deeper draft

The World of Ice and Fire - The Targaryen Kings: Daeron I

 Daeron divided his host into three forces: one led by Lord Tyrell, who came down the Prince's Pass at the western end of the Red Mountains of Dorne; one led by the king's cousin and master of ships, Alyn Velaryon, traveling by sea; and one led by the king himself, marching down the treacherous pass called the Boneway, where he made use of goat tracks that others considered too dangerous, to go around the Dornish watchtowers and avoid the same traps that had caught Orys Baratheon. The young king then swept away every force that sought to stop him. The Prince's Pass was won, and, most importantly, the royal fleet broke the Planky Town and then was able to drive upriver.

Here Yandel says the drove upriver but not how far, nor does he say anithing about the ships used.

The World of Ice and Fire - The Targaryen Kings: Daeron I

In 160 AC the Young Dragon himself was forced to return to Dorne to put down the rebels. He won several small victories as he fought through the Boneway while Lord Alyn Oakenfist descended once again upon the Planky Town and the Greenblood.

Again Yandel does not tell us how far he got or what type of ships he used

A Feast for Crows - The Queenmaker

Once the kindling caught, they sat around the flames and passed a skin of summerwine from hand to hand . . . all but Darkstar, who preferred to drink unsweetened lemonwater. Garin was in a lively mood and entertained them with the latest tales from the Planky Town at the mouth of the Greenblood, where the orphans of the river came to trade with the carracks, cogs, and galleys from across the narrow sea.

Here then we hear about trade ships but they do not sail up the mander they are met at the planky town by the Orphans.

A Feast for Crows - The Queenmaker

"It is a long journey," Arianne said, "but it will go easier once we reach the Greenblood. Some of Garin's people will meet us there, the orphans of the river. They live on boats, and pole them up and down the Greenblood and its vassals, fishing and picking fruit and doing whatever work needs doing

Here we hear of boats actually on the Greenblood but they are poleboats not big ships.

A Feast for Crows - The Queenmaker

Within half a league they were riding over devilgrass and past olive groves. Beyond a line of stony hills the grass grew greener and more lush, and there were lemon orchards watered by a spider's web of old canals. Garin was the first to spy the river glimmering green. He gave a shout and raced ahead.

Arianne Martell had crossed the Mander once, when she had gone with three of the Sand Snakes to visit Tyene's mother. Compared to that mighty waterway, the Greenblood was scarce worthy of the name of river, yet it remained the life of Dorne. It took its name from the murky green of its sluggish waters; but as they approached, the sunlight seemed to turn those waters gold. She had seldom seen a sweeter sight. The next part should be slow and simple, she thought, up the Greenblood and onto the Vaith, as far as a poleboat can go.

They found the boat half a league downstream, hidden beneath the drooping branches of a great green willow. Low of roof and wide abeam, the poleboats had hardly any draft to speak of; the Young Dragon had disparaged them as "hovels built on rafts," but that was hardly fair. All but the poorest orphan boats were wonderfully carved and painted. This one was done in shades of green, with a curved wooden tiller shaped like a mermaid, and fish faces peering through her rails. Poles and ropes and jars of olive oil cluttered her decks, and iron lanterns swung fore and aft. Arianne saw no orphans. Where is her crew? she wondered.

Here again we hear of boats on the Greenblood but again it is a poleboat.

As a sidenote we do however get a glimps of what grows along the shores of the Greenblood, and that the Dornish use canals to get water to there fields. Obvieusly this means they extended the area of plantgrowth along the river arteficially and without constant maintenance of the canals the amount areable land would be much less. This would be costly so to afford this the must use as much of the land as they can for crops that could also be traded for the tools or the materials for the tools they would need for the maintenance.

Conclusion: the only time we hear of how far Oakenfist got is from Stannis who says half way, and with they only boats mentioned on the Greenblood being poleboats of shallow draft, it seems likely he did this with galleys who also have a shallow draft. Big tradeships like cogs and carracks do not seem to sail up the Greenblood.

[Graydon Hicks]

oh i agree the snow will come, i just dont think it will be nearly as bad in essos as it is westeros.

[Lord Varys]

@direpupy

The navigability of the Greenblood has nothing to do with the amount of food that can be grown along the shores of the river (and the other Dornish rivers). It is quite clear that the Greenblood shores are not as fertile as the Nile valley but my comparison there was just an analogy. If the Dornish soil is reasonably fertile it can yield constant good result if people use canals to water it sufficiently.

Also keep in mind that the Rhoynar taught the Dornishmen many new things. They are technologically more advanced than the other Westerosi kingdoms.

There are summer snows in the North. That makes it likely it also can snow in spring or autumn (proven in ADwD) in the North. Such snows are likely greatly reducing the amount of crops you can harvest in an average year in the North, even on fertile ground. Most of your crops are likely to be killed by severe frost, and if there is snow there has to be frost, at least for a couple of days.

In Dorne it snows almost never. That means that it is not that unlikely that the amount of crops the Dornishmen can produce into a complete seasonal cycle - spring, summer, autumn, and winter - greatly exceeds that of the North simply because of that. A similar thing could be true for the southern Reach as well - the people around Oldtown might be able to harvest crops not just from spring to autumn but also in early and late winter, and perhaps even throughout winter if we are talking about a mild and short winter.

In addition, we have no idea how fertile good farmland in the North is compared to the Greenblood shores or the pleasant mountain valleys the Yronwoods control.

You omitted the relevant passage that makes it very clear that Oakenfist must have gotten up pretty far up the Greenblood:

Quote

With Dorne effectively divided in half by Lord Alyn’s control of the Greenblood, the Dornish forces in the east and west could not aid one another directly.

This wouldn't have worked if the royal fleet had been stuck in the delta of the Greenblood. If you control a river you have to actually be able to have ships on that river. Even more so, if your control of the river actually enabled to you to prevent land-based enemy forces from crossing the river.

In addition, the fact that the Dornishmen don't have a fleet aside from the poleboats of the orphans doesn't mean that the Greenblood isn't navigable by bigger ships. It just means that the Dornishmen didn't put such ships on the river. We don't know the reason why. A possible reason could be that the Dornishmen don't want foreign trading vassals on their river.

[Free Northman Reborn]

6 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

@direpupy

The navigability of the Greenblood has nothing to do with the amount of food that can be grown along the shores of the river (and the other Dornish rivers). It is quite clear that the Greenblood shores are not as fertile as the Nile valley but my comparison there was just an analogy. If the Dornish soil is reasonably fertile it can yield constant good result if people use canals to water it sufficiently.

Also keep in mind that the Rhoynar taught the Dornishmen many new things. They are technologically more advanced than the other Westerosi kingdoms.

There are summer snows in the North. That makes it likely it also can snow in spring or autumn (proven in ADwD) in the North. Such snows are likely greatly reducing the amount of crops you can harvest in an average year in the North, even on fertile ground. Most of your crops are likely to be killed by severe frost, and if there is snow there has to be frost, at least for a couple of days.

In Dorne it snows almost never. That means that it is not that unlikely that the amount of crops the Dornishmen can produce into a complete seasonal cycle - spring, summer, autumn, and winter - greatly exceeds that of the North simply because of that. A similar thing could be true for the southern Reach as well - the people around Oldtown might be able to harvest crops not just from spring to autumn but also in early and late winter, and perhaps even throughout winter if we are talking about a mild and short winter.

In addition, we have no idea how fertile good farmland in the North is compared to the Greenblood shores or the pleasant mountain valleys the Yronwoods control.

You omitted the relevant passage that makes it very clear that Oakenfist must have gotten up pretty far up the Greenblood:

This wouldn't have worked if the royal fleet had been stuck in the delta of the Greenblood. If you control a river you have to actually be able to have ships on that river. Even more so, if your control of the river actually enabled to you to prevent land-based enemy forces from crossing the river.

In addition, the fact that the Dornishmen don't have a fleet aside from the poleboats of the orphans doesn't mean that the Greenblood isn't navigable by bigger ships. It just means that the Dornishmen didn't put such ships on the river. We don't know the reason why. A possible reason could be that the Dornishmen don't want foreign trading vassals on their river.

Cold is just one threat to crops. In the histories there are references to great droughts that hit parts of Westeros. Heat can be as bad for crops as cold. What goes around comes around. The North is not alone in facing climate challenges.

[Lord Varys]

5 minutes ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

Cold is just one threat to crops. In the histories there are references to great droughts that hit parts of Westeros. Heat can be as bad for crops as cold. What goes around comes around. The North is not alone in facing climate challenges.

There is no hint whatsoever that droughts routinely hit Dorne or any other region of Westeros. The great drought during the reign of Aerys I was an exceptional event, not something that routinely happens each year.

But summer snows are very common in the North. That is an established fact.

[direpupy]

32 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

@direpupy

The navigability of the Greenblood has nothing to do with the amount of food that can be grown along the shores of the river (and the other Dornish rivers). It is quite clear that the Greenblood shores are not as fertile as the Nile valley but my comparison there was just an analogy. If the Dornish soil is reasonably fertile it can yield constant good result if people use canals to water it sufficiently.

Also keep in mind that the Rhoynar taught the Dornishmen many new things. They are technologically more advanced than the other Westerosi kingdoms.

There are summer snows in the North. That makes it likely it also can snow in spring or autumn (proven in ADwD) in the North. Such snows are likely greatly reducing the amount of crops you can harvest in an average year in the North, even on fertile ground. Most of your crops are likely to be killed by severe frost, and if there is snow there has to be frost, at least for a couple of days.

In Dorne it snows almost never. That means that it is not that unlikely that the amount of crops the Dornishmen can produce into a complete seasonal cycle - spring, summer, autumn, and winter - greatly exceeds that of the North simply because of that. A similar thing could be true for the southern Reach as well - the people around Oldtown might be able to harvest crops not just from spring to autumn but also in early and late winter, and perhaps even throughout winter if we are talking about a mild and short winter.

In addition, we have no idea how fertile good farmland in the North is compared to the Greenblood shores or the pleasant mountain valleys the Yronwoods control.

You omitted the relevant passage that makes it very clear that Oakenfist must have gotten up pretty far up the Greenblood:

This wouldn't have worked if the royal fleet had been stuck in the delta of the Greenblood. If you control a river you have to actually be able to have ships on that river. Even more so, if your control of the river actually enabled to you to prevent land-based enemy forces from crossing the river.

In addition, the fact that the Dornishmen don't have a fleet aside from the poleboats of the orphans doesn't mean that the Greenblood isn't navigable by bigger ships. It just means that the Dornishmen didn't put such ships on the river. We don't know the reason why. A possible reason could be that the Dornishmen don't want foreign trading vassals on their river.

My post on navigability was in respons to you saying that the Greenblood had to be navigable to big ships, this is why i only mention that we also see some of what they grow in one of the quote's as a sidenote. I clearly state that it is a sidenote, but apparantly you read over that.

We have had a discusion on what kind of crops you can grow in the North a few months ago in an other tread and if you remember i gave you the names of several crops that could easily survive summer snows, so your repeated mentioning of this is really not impressing me at all.

For Dorne to produce an amount of food greater then the massive landmass that is the North, where we know for a fact that there are apple orchards in a place as far north as the Gift, the Greenblood would have to be a river compareble to the Nile which it is not. However that does not mean it does not produce a lot of food, because it does. Arrianne actually says it is the liveblood of Dorne. What i dispute is that they amount will exeed the output of the North.

As to your Quote on dividing Dorne in half. Does he really need to get al the way up to Godsgrace to do that? they only source we have of how far he got is Stannis saying half way, and as i said galleys which make up most of the royal fleet have a low draft but that is why they are not used as transport and trade ships. So that still means that since they only ships we actually see on the Greenblood are poleboats and only hear of Oakenfist ships which are likely the Galleys of the royal fleet, it seems that with the information we have now that big ships like cogs and carracks are unlikely to be able to sail up the Greenblood.

[direpupy]

@Lord Varys Did some further diging and found this:

The World of Ice and Fire - Dorne

 Though meager when compared to the Mander, the Trident, or the Blackwater Rush, the waters of the Greenblood are truly the lifeblood of Dorne.

Most of the First Men who chose to remain in Dorne, instead of wandering north in search of sweeter lands, settled close to the banks of the Greenblood, digging canals and ditches to bring its life-giving waters to the trees and crops they planted.

Most Dornish rivers are in full flood only after the rare (and dangerous) rainstorms. The rest of the year they are dry gullies. In all of Dorne, only three rivers flow day and night, winter and summer, without ever going dry. The Torrentine, arising high in the western mountains, plunges down to the sea in a series of rapids and waterfalls, howling through canyons and crevasses with a sound like the roar of some great beast. Rising from mountain springs, its waters are sweet and pure, but dangerous to cross, save by bridge, and impossible to navigate. The Brimstone is a far more placid stream, but its cloudy yellow waters stink of sulfur, and the plants that grow along its banks are strange and stunted things. (Of the men who live along those selfsame banks, we shall not speak). But the Greenblood's waters, if sometimes muddy, are healthful for plant and animal alike, and farms and orchards crowd the river's banks for hundreds of leagues. Moreover, the Greenblood and its vassals, the Vaith and the Scourge, are navigable by boat almost to their source (if shallow and plagued by sandbars in places), and therefore serve as the principality's chief artery for trade.

Again it is stressed here that while navigable the river is shallow so again i really do not see anything beyond poleboats or galleys being able to sail up the Greenblood.

As to food the hundreds of leagues along the rivers banks confirms that food is grown along they entire river unfortunatly it does not say anything about how far inland from the banks of the river the areable zone stretches.

it also speaks of rare rainstorms so periods of drought do seem to be a thing in Dorne.

I ommited a part of the quote becouse it is easier to speak of it seperatly:

Most of the First Men who chose to remain in Dorne, instead of wandering north in search of sweeter lands, settled close to the banks of the Greenblood, digging canals and ditches to bring its life-giving waters to the trees and crops they planted. Others preferred to dwell beside the narrow sea; the eastern shores of Dorne are more forgiving than the southern, and soon many small villages arose, sustaining themselves on fish and crabs. The more restless of the First Men pushed onward and made homes for themselves in the foothills south of the Red Mountains, where storms moving north were wont to drop their moisture, creating a fertile green belt. Those who climbed farther took refuge amongst the peaks, in hidden valleys and high mountain meadows where the grass was green and sweet. Only the bravest and the maddest dared to strike out inland across the deep sands. A few of these found water amongst the dunes and raised holdfasts and castles on those oasis; their descendants, centuries later, became the Lords of the Wells. But for every man who stumbled on a well, a hundred must surely have died of thirst beneath the blazing Dornish sun.

This speaks of the other parts of Dorne that could sustain the growth of food, but since the Greenblood is called the lifeblood of Dorne on multiple occasions they most likely do not produce as much as the Greenbloods banks.

Still it is interesting to look at. The villages are said to sustain themselves so they do not seem to do more subsist so no great quantities of food there. The valleys and meadows of the mountains are only said to have green and sweet grass  so i would expect that they have herds of animals there but no agriculture. the oasis would grow some food but how much? I do not expect an oasis to really be abundent in food. That leaves the fertile green belt in the foothills of the mountains, now here i expect to see a good amount of food.

I still however do not believe that Dorne would produce more food then the North, but i know you will probably not agree with me.

[Free Northman Reborn]

3 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

There is no hint whatsoever that droughts routinely hit Dorne or any other region of Westeros. The great drought during the reign of Aerys I was an exceptional event, not something that routinely happens each year.

But summer snows are very common in the North. That is an established fact.

There were summer snows in Book 1. The harvest followed over the next couple of books after the snows. Up to Dance we still hear Alys talking about harvests left untended because of the men Rickard took away to war. And from a number of different sources, we know that harvests were bountiful. The lords were generous to the Watch because of their rich harvests, some lords (might have been the Umbers if I recall correctly, but I will check later. EDIT I've checked and it was the steward from Deepwood Motte) petitioned Bran to store less of their harvests than normal for Winter, because things were going so well - clearly showing that they were generating surpluses, else they would have no excess harvest to store.

Clearly the late summer snows - which Ned says is not unusual - had no apparent impact on the harvest that followed soon thereafter.

So I really think this issue is a red herring.

[Lord Varys]

2 hours ago, direpupy said:

My post on navigability was in respons to you saying that the Greenblood had to be navigable to big ships, this is why i only mention that we also see some of what they grow in one of the quote's as a sidenote. I clearly state that it is a sidenote, but apparantly you read over that.

Alyn Velaryon would have navigated the Greenblood using big ships. That means it is navigable, at least up to a point.

2 hours ago, direpupy said:

We have had a discusion on what kind of crops you can grow in the North a few months ago in an other tread and if you remember i gave you the names of several crops that could easily survive summer snows, so your repeated mentioning of this is really not impressing me at all.

But we know that a lot of crops actually died from the frost in autumn in AFfC and ADwD. The Glovers and Karstarks lost their last harvest, and it seems similar things happened in the Umber lands. If they had crops that could survive frost for a certain period of time they would have used those, one assumes. The fact that they did indicates that they don't have any of those - or that George is as ignorant about agricultural details as I am, assuming that the crops he mentioned don't survive the autumn frost.

2 hours ago, direpupy said:

For Dorne to produce an amount of food greater then the massive landmass that is the North, where we know for a fact that there are apple orchards in a place as far north as the Gift, the Greenblood would have to be a river compareble to the Nile which it is not. However that does not mean it does not produce a lot of food, because it does. Arrianne actually says it is the liveblood of Dorne. What i dispute is that they amount will exeed the output of the North.

You don't have the textual evidence to actually do that. We don't know how much food the North produces. We also don't know how many people live up there, how fertile the ground is, etc.

Now, I never said that Dorne produces more food than the North. I said I could see it doing that if the Greenblood shores were as fertile as the Nile valley.

2 hours ago, direpupy said:

As to your Quote on dividing Dorne in half. Does he really need to get al the way up to Godsgrace to do that? they only source we have of how far he got is Stannis saying half way, and as i said galleys which make up most of the royal fleet have a low draft but that is why they are not used as transport and trade ships. So that still means that since they only ships we actually see on the Greenblood are poleboats and only hear of Oakenfist ships which are likely the Galleys of the royal fleet, it seems that with the information we have now that big ships like cogs and carracks are unlikely to be able to sail up the Greenblood.

The Stannis quote refers to how things were when Daeron I was coming down the Boneway. Presumably the fleet would have been farther up the stream when Daeron was finally in the sands. 

[Free Northman Reborn]

1 hour ago, Lord Varys said:

Alyn Velaryon would have navigated the Greenblood using big ships. That means it is navigable, at least up to a point.

But we know that a lot of crops actually died from the frost in autumn in AFfC and ADwD. The Glovers and Karstarks lost their last harvest, and it seems similar things happened in the Umber lands. If they had crops that could survive frost for a certain period of time they would have used those, one assumes. The fact that they did indicates that they don't have any of those - or that George is as ignorant about agricultural details as I am, assuming that the crops he mentioned don't survive the autumn frost.

. 

This is an invalid conclusion. The crops weren't lost due to frost during summer snows. They were lost from not being harvested when they should have been. We see Alys Karstark report on this:

"My father took so many of our men south with him that only the women and young boys were left to bring the harvest in. Them, and the men too old or crippled to go off to war. Crops withered in the fields or were pounded into the mud by autumn rains."

If crops aren't harvested within a certain period after they are ripe, they wither away.

In terms of the surpluses that the North generates, a careful reading shows us that the Northmen don't put away part of the Harvest for Winter throughout the entire Summer. In fact, they don't put away food in Summer at all. Instead they must use the surpluses for war, trade or other income generating activities. From Book 1 we learn that they only start building up Winter stores once Autumn is declared. So clearly, by storing a fifth of their autumn harvests (which may entail more than one harvest depending on the length of autumn), they store enough to support the population through a multi year Winter - typically 2-3 years.

So those Winters where famine strikes would not be because they could not produce enough surplus to feed them through Winter (as they don't even bother storing any food from the most bountiful Season, which is Summer), but it would be ones where the Winter was longer than they had estimated, and they therefore under provided for it. Or where the Autumn was atypically short, resulting in them starting to store food too late.

If they stored food throughout Summer - provided it could be done without spoiling - they would logically then have more than enough food for even the longest of Winters.

Think about it.

If a fifth of the Harvest from just Autumn, is enough to support the population throughout a normal Winter, which presumably lasts at least as long as Autumn itself, then they must be producing at least 5 times as much food as they consume during every normal Autumn harvest. And in Summer, that ratio would no doubt be even higher.