military strengths in westeros, beyond shear numbers

[Lord Varys]

3 hours ago, direpupy said:

Again it is stressed here that while navigable the river is shallow so again i really do not see anything beyond poleboats or galleys being able to sail up the Greenblood.

Again, Alyn Velaryon's fleet did just that, and we can be pretty sure he must have gotten up the Greenblood as far as Godsgrace at least, since the Greenblood would have been as massive a river as both the Vaith and the Scourge combined, and if even these are navigable with boats far up the Greenblood should be both deeper and broader than both of these.

3 hours ago, direpupy said:

As to food the hundreds of leagues along the rivers banks confirms that food is grown along they entire river unfortunatly it does not say anything about how far inland from the banks of the river the areable zone stretches.

it also speaks of rare rainstorms so periods of drought do seem to be a thing in Dorne.

If there are droughts those don't seem to affect the regions alongside the main rivers - Torrentine, Brimstone, and Greenblood and its vassals - since they are not supposed to run dry.

That suggests that the lands alongside the Greenblood should be watered by the canals the Dornishmen dig and maintain as continuously as you can with the technology they have. And that should mean there constant harvests to be had in those regions. The fertile land along the Nile was never that broad. But if such land stretches for miles and miles the revenue can be enormous.

3 hours ago, direpupy said:

This speaks of the other parts of Dorne that could sustain the growth of food, but since the Greenblood is called the lifeblood of Dorne on multiple occasions they most likely do not produce as much as the Greenbloods banks.

I tend to agree there, but the lands of the Daynes and Yronwoods might still be pretty fertile. The only really infertile places are the deep sands. The Greenblood is the lifeblood of Dorne because it is a river that crosses the sands and essentially brings life to it. Just as the Nile does in Egypt. You can live a pretty good life in the Dornish sands if you live in a village close to the Greenblood.

Life alongside the Brimstone should be much uglier, though.

3 hours ago, direpupy said:

Still it is interesting to look at. The villages are said to sustain themselves so they do not seem to do more subsist so no great quantities of food there. The valleys and meadows of the mountains are only said to have green and sweet grass  so i would expect that they have herds of animals there but no agriculture. the oasis would grow some food but how much? I do not expect an oasis to really be abundent in food. That leaves the fertile green belt in the foothills of the mountains, now here i expect to see a good amount of food.

Dorne does export wine and oranges. There have to places where both are grown. Grapes could be grown both alongside the Greenblood, perhaps close to the Planky Town, but just as well up in the valleys of the Red Mountains. We don't really know.

3 hours ago, direpupy said:

I still however do not believe that Dorne would produce more food then the North, but i know you will probably not agree with me.

As I've said, the problem is that we don't really know how fertile the lands of the North is compared to other regions. The fact that the North is so vast doesn't really figure into the equation there. Not while we don't know how large the fields of a single family have to be to feed them. If the ground is not so fertile you need more of it make as good revenues as can be made, say, in the Reach.

And we know it is less fertile. If you check the descriptions of the Seven Kingdoms in TWoIaF it is clear that no region of the North is described as being fertile whereas the Reach, the West, the Riverlands, and the Vale are.

And the Reach, the West, the Vale, and the Riverlands all would produce massive quantities of food, outdoing the North in every possibly category. The fertility of the Vale is legendary, and this most likely means that you can grow much more quantities of, say, wheat on a single square mile in the Vale than anywhere else in Westeros.

The advantage Dorne would have over the North is the fact that it would have constant warm and sunny weather alongside the rivers. All the Dornishmen there need is enough water from the rivers, and they apparently always get that.

By comparison, the situation in the North would be more difficult. Even in the more fertile regions (wherever they are) people would still have problems with the weather, even in summer.

3 hours ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

There were summer snows in Book 1. The harvest followed over the next couple of books after the snows. Up to Dance we still hear Alys talking about harvests left untended because of the men Rickard took away to war. And from a number of different sources, we know that harvests were bountiful.

Bountiful by the standards of the North. That doesn't tell us anything about the quantity and quality of the crops in comparison to a bountiful harvest in the Reach.

3 hours ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

The lords were generous to the Watch because of their rich harvests, some lords (might have been the Umbers if I recall correctly, but I will check later.

See above. I don't have to be billionaire to be generous to you. All you need to be generous is to have stuff you can afford to give away. And the impression I got (didn't double check that) is that the lords actually gave a lot of venison and meat to the Watch, not so much grain and crops. The thing I visibly remember about the provisions of the NW are all the frozen animals.

3 hours ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

EDIT I've checked and it was the steward from Deepwood Motte) petitioned Bran to store less of their harvests than normal for Winter, because things were going so well - clearly showing that they were generating surpluses, else they would have no excess harvest to store.

See above. The North has to make a lot of surplus to survive even a short winter, stretching only over one or two years. If the Northmen (or any people in Westeros) would eat up an entire harvest they would never live through winter.

3 hours ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

Clearly the late summer snows - which Ned says is not unusual - had no apparent impact on the harvest that followed soon thereafter.

So I really think this issue is a red herring.

It is not. The weather and climate influences life in the North. It is why there are so few people up there in the first place, and it is also the reason why so many people usually die in winter. Life is a wager up there. If you have bountiful harvests you might live through winter, if you have bad harvests you most certainly will die in winter.

1 hour ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

This is an invalid conclusion. The crops weren't lost due to frost during summer snows. They were lost from not being harvested when they should have been. We see Alys Karstark report on this:

"My father took so many of our men south with him that only the women and young boys were left to bring the harvest in. Them, and the men too old or crippled to go off to war. Crops withered in the fields or were pounded into the mud by autumn rains."

It is not specified what killed the Glover crops, or is it? Never mind, it is not important whether summer snows, autumn rain, or autumn snows killed the crops. It is important that the weather up there can (and does) kill crops.

If you don't want to believe that summer snows must have an impact on agriculture in comparison to lands where there are no such summer snows there is something wrong with your reasoning. Even if the lands in the North were all as fertile as the Reach (which they aren't) and the only different factor in our comparison were the summer snows in the North which are lacking in the Reach the North would still be worse off. Because some crops will have to be killed by the summer snows.

And, sure, bad weather can kill crops all over Westeros. But there is worse weather up in the North than in the South.

You are trying to make conditions in the North equal to those in the South when they are not. That's evident.

1 hour ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

In terms of the surpluses that the North generates, a careful reading shows us that the Northmen don't put away part of the Harvest for Winter throughout the entire Summer. In fact, they don't put away food in Summer at all. Instead they must use the surpluses for war, trade or other income generating activities. From Book 1 we learn that they only start building up Winter stores once Autumn is declared. So clearly, by storing a fifth of their autumn harvests (which may entail more than one harvest depending on the length of autumn), they store enough to support the population through a multi year Winter - typically 2-3 years.

So those Winters where famine strikes would not be because they could not produce enough surplus to feed them through Winter (as they don't even bother storing any food from the most bountiful Season, which is Summer), but it would be ones where the Winter was longer than they had estimated, and they therefore under provided for it. Or where the Autumn was atypically short, resulting in them starting to store food too late.

If they stored food throughout Summer - provided it could be done without spoiling - they would logically then have more than enough food for even the longest of Winters.

Think about it.

If a fifth of the Harvest from just Autumn, is enough to support the population throughout a normal Winter, which presumably lasts at least as long as Autumn itself, then they must be producing at least 5 times as much food as they consume during every normal Autumn harvest. And in Summer, that ratio would no doubt be even higher.

Quite honestly, even if that were the case I can't take that seriously. The idea that the North (or any region of Westeros) can produce enough food surplus through autumn harvests to last through a multi-year winter is just insane.

If people don't begin to prepare for winter in spring or early summer they should not last through winter. Not even through a one-year winter. 

Thinking about the whole troop thing again, the fact that the Umber troops Mors and Hother use in ADwD are so meager (old men and green boys, which means men that are actually usually not used in war) and that the Karstarks really seem to be down to the pitiful host Arnolf leads to Stannis (Cregan has to hunt Alys himself, with only few men as his retinue) strongly indicates that at least those houses sent all the men to Robb. The men remaining are the scraps they could assemble now.

If things were different people wouldn't have been missed during the harvest, because they would have sent only those men to war whom they could actually spare. Instead the crops died because nobody was left to bring the harvest in.

Once the harvest was over - which it is at the end of ASoS - those people bringing the harvest in would have been free to go to war. That seems to be the case for the clansmen in ADwD. But they didn't send (m)any people to Robb.

In regards to the overall population of the North this is making it not all that likely that only 1% of the male population of the Umber and Karstark lands went to war. If that were the case then there should have been a lot young and middle-aged men among the Umber troops, and Arnolf should also have been able to assemble more than a few hundreds.

It is certainly different with the Manderly, Dustin, and Ryswell forces. They did not send as many troops to Robb as they could have. In addition, the success the Ironborn had also means that there simply weren't enough people left around Deepwood Motte, Torrhen's Square, and Winterfell to quickly organize a strong local opposition. Ser Rodrik could not raise a strong army from the lands outside Winterfell. Those lands as well as the castle were pretty much empty after Robb left. That's very evident in Bran's ACoK chapters. For his attempt to retake Winterfell he has to rely on nearly half the North or more, and he only can assemble about 2,000 men.

[Free Northman Reborn]

1 hour ago, Lord Varys said:

Again, Alyn Velaryon's fleet did just that, and we can be pretty sure he must have gotten up the Greenblood as far as Godsgrace at least, since the Greenblood would have been as massive a river as both the Vaith and the Scourge combined, and if even these are navigable with boats far up the Greenblood should be both deeper and broader than both of these.

If there are droughts those don't seem to affect the regions alongside the main rivers - Torrentine, Brimstone, and Greenblood and its vassals - since they are not supposed to run dry.

That suggests that the lands alongside the Greenblood should be watered by the canals the Dornishmen dig and maintain as continuously as you can with the technology they have. And that should mean there constant harvests to be had in those regions. The fertile land along the Nile was never that broad. But if such land stretches for miles and miles the revenue can be enormous.

I tend to agree there, but the lands of the Daynes and Yronwoods might still be pretty fertile. The only really infertile places are the deep sands. The Greenblood is the lifeblood of Dorne because it is a river that crosses the sands and essentially brings life to it. Just as the Nile does in Egypt. You can live a pretty good life in the Dornish sands if you live in a village close to the Greenblood.

Life alongside the Brimstone should be much uglier, though.

Dorne does export wine and oranges. There have to places where both are grown. Grapes could be grown both alongside the Greenblood, perhaps close to the Planky Town, but just as well up in the valleys of the Red Mountains. We don't really know.

As I've said, the problem is that we don't really know how fertile the lands of the North is compared to other regions. The fact that the North is so vast doesn't really figure into the equation there. Not while we don't know how large the fields of a single family have to be to feed them. If the ground is not so fertile you need more of it make as good revenues as can be made, say, in the Reach.

And we know it is less fertile. If you check the descriptions of the Seven Kingdoms in TWoIaF it is clear that no region of the North is described as being fertile whereas the Reach, the West, the Riverlands, and the Vale are.

And the Reach, the West, the Vale, and the Riverlands all would produce massive quantities of food, outdoing the North in every possibly category. The fertility of the Vale is legendary, and this most likely means that you can grow much more quantities of, say, wheat on a single square mile in the Vale than anywhere else in Westeros.

The advantage Dorne would have over the North is the fact that it would have constant warm and sunny weather alongside the rivers. All the Dornishmen there need is enough water from the rivers, and they apparently always get that.

By comparison, the situation in the North would be more difficult. Even in the more fertile regions (wherever they are) people would still have problems with the weather, even in summer.

Bountiful by the standards of the North. That doesn't tell us anything about the quantity and quality of the crops in comparison to a bountiful harvest in the Reach.

See above. I don't have to be billionaire to be generous to you. All you need to be generous is to have stuff you can afford to give away. And the impression I got (didn't double check that) is that the lords actually gave a lot of venison and meat to the Watch, not so much grain and crops. The thing I visibly remember about the provisions of the NW are all the frozen animals.

See above. The North has to make a lot of surplus to survive even a short winter, stretching only over one or two years. If the Northmen (or any people in Westeros) would eat up an entire harvest they would never live through winter.

It is not. The weather and climate influences life in the North. It is why there are so few people up there in the first place, and it is also the reason why so many people usually die in winter. Life is a wager up there. If you have bountiful harvests you might live through winter, if you have bad harvests you most certainly will die in winter.

It is not specified what killed the Glover crops, or is it? Never mind, it is not important whether summer snows, autumn rain, or autumn snows killed the crops. It is important that the weather up there can (and does) kill crops.

If you don't want to believe that summer snows must have an impact on agriculture in comparison to lands where there are no such summer snows there is something wrong with your reasoning. Even if the lands in the North were all as fertile as the Reach (which they aren't) and the only different factor in our comparison were the summer snows in the North which are lacking in the Reach the North would still be worse off. Because some crops will have to be killed by the summer snows.

And, sure, bad weather can kill crops all over Westeros. But there is worse weather up in the North than in the South.

You are trying to make conditions in the North equal to those in the South when they are not. That's evident.

Quite honestly, even if that were the case I can't take that seriously. The idea that the North (or any region of Westeros) can produce enough food surplus through autumn harvests to last through a multi-year winter is just insane.

If people don't begin to prepare for winter in spring or early summer they should not last through winter. Not even through a one-year winter. 

Thinking about the whole troop thing again, the fact that the Umber troops Mors and Hother use in ADwD are so meager (old men and green boys, which means men that are actually usually not used in war) and that the Karstarks really seem to be down to the pitiful host Arnolf leads to Stannis (Cregan has to hunt Alys himself, with only few men as his retinue) strongly indicates that at least those houses sent all the men to Robb. The men remaining are the scraps they could assemble now.

If things were different people wouldn't have been missed during the harvest, because they would have sent only those men to war whom they could actually spare. Instead the crops died because nobody was left to bring the harvest in.

Once the harvest was over - which it is at the end of ASoS - those people bringing the harvest in would have been free to go to war. That seems to be the case for the clansmen in ADwD. But they didn't send (m)any people to Robb.

In regards to the overall population of the North this is making it not all that likely that only 1% of the male population of the Umber and Karstark lands went to war. If that were the case then there should have been a lot young and middle-aged men among the Umber troops, and Arnolf should also have been able to assemble more than a few hundreds.

It is certainly different with the Manderly, Dustin, and Ryswell forces. They did not send as many troops to Robb as they could have. In addition, the success the Ironborn had also means that there simply weren't enough people left around Deepwood Motte, Torrhen's Square, and Winterfell to quickly organize a strong local opposition. Ser Rodrik could not raise a strong army from the lands outside Winterfell. Those lands as well as the castle were pretty much empty after Robb left. That's very evident in Bran's ACoK chapters. For his attempt to retake Winterfell he has to rely on nearly half the North or more, and he only can assemble about 2,000 men.

I have to learn to keep my posts short and to the point in our engagements. If I raise multiple points in a post, the responses tend to include such a broad number of side topics and opinion based assertions, that it tends to bury my arguments that cannot be refuted in camouflaging fluff. So I will limit myself to a single response here, which is that you simply decided not to accept the evidence that does not agree with your pre-existing opinion. So here it is, straight from the books:

"When the morrow came, most of the morning was given over to talk of grains and greens and salting meat. Once the maesters in their Citadel had proclaimed the first of autumn, wise men put away a portion of each harvest . . . though how large a portion was a matter that seemed to require much talk. Lady Hornwood was storing a fifth of her harvest. At Maester Luwin's suggestion, she vowed to increase that to a quarter."

And a second quote from the same book, which corroborates the standard storage percentage:

"Bran soon realized that it was the steward, not Lady Glover, who truly ruled at Deepwood Motte. The man allowed that he was at present setting aside only a tenth of his harvest. A hedge wizard had told him there would be a bountiful spirit summer before the cold set in, he claimed. Maester Luwin had a number of choice things to say about hedge wizards. Ser Rodrik commanded the man to set aside a fifth."

It is therefore irrefutable that Northmen only start storing portions of their harvest for Winter once Autumn is announced, and that the traditional storage percentage is one fifth of each Autumn harvest. Logically, it is therefore clear that one fifth of the total harvest from a standard Autumn season is deemed sufficient to support the Northern population's food needs during Winter. And if 20% is deemed sufficient during Winter, it would be sufficient to support them during Autumn too. Meaning Four fifths (80%) are therefore surplus to basic food requirements.

And in Summer, that surplus would be even greater, assuming that Summer harvests are more bountiful than Autumn harvests.

 

[Lord Varys]

1 hour ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

I have to learn to keep my posts short and to the point in our engagements. If I raise multiple points in a post, the responses tend to include such a broad number of side topics and opinion based assertions, that it tends to bury my arguments that cannot be refuted in camouflaging fluff. So I will limit myself to a single response here, which is that you simply decided not to accept the evidence that does not agree with your pre-existing opinion. So here it is, straight from the books:

"When the morrow came, most of the morning was given over to talk of grains and greens and salting meat. Once the maesters in their Citadel had proclaimed the first of autumn, wise men put away a portion of each harvest . . . though how large a portion was a matter that seemed to require much talk. Lady Hornwood was storing a fifth of her harvest. At Maester Luwin's suggestion, she vowed to increase that to a quarter."

And a second quote from the same book, which corroborates the standard storage percentage:

"Bran soon realized that it was the steward, not Lady Glover, who truly ruled at Deepwood Motte. The man allowed that he was at present setting aside only a tenth of his harvest. A hedge wizard had told him there would be a bountiful spirit summer before the cold set in, he claimed. Maester Luwin had a number of choice things to say about hedge wizards. Ser Rodrik commanded the man to set aside a fifth."

It is therefore irrefutable that Northmen only start storing portions of their harvest for Winter once Autumn is announced, and that the traditional storage percentage is one fifth of each Autumn harvest. Logically, it is therefore clear that one fifth of the total harvest from a standard Autumn season is deemed sufficient to support the Northern population's food needs during Winter. And if 20% is deemed sufficient during Winter, it would be sufficient to support them during Autumn too. Meaning Four fifths (80%) are therefore surplus to basic food requirements.

And in Summer, that surplus would be even greater, assuming that Summer harvests are more bountiful than Autumn harvests.

I know those quotes. But they don't exclude the possibility that even wiser men cannot also store parts of their harvests in summer. It only makes clear that it is sort of mandatory beginning autumn. But the gist of it is that lords and their people can do as they please. It is up to them how much they set aside. The Starks and there people can make suggestions and give them commands but whether people follow those is unclear. If there was a traditional rule how much to set aside the steward of Deepwood Motte wouldn't throw around his tenth part stuff.

I mean, we know that autumn was so short this cycle that people only got 1-2 harvests in due to time constraints, especially in the war-torn regions (Riverlands and North, parts of the Westerlands). The idea that people can live through a years-long winter off the fifth part or quarter of 1-2 harvests is just ridiculous.

This contradiction may be resolvable if we assume that George originally intended for autumn to last throughout the planned five year gap. Then this kind of thing makes some sense. Else I don't really think I can take this scenario seriously, never mind what's stated in the books.

Aside from the NW nobody even seems to have storage houses where the winter provisions are kept. Winterfell doesn't have large cellars we know of, and there are no such storage houses above the ground. And neither are any such to be seen anywhere, not in KL, nor in village and holdfast we see in the chapters of the traveling POVs.

That is where the plausibility of this series breaks down. It is already unbelievable that people (and their animals) in a medieval setting can live through year long winters, but it is completely unbelievable that they can do so without huge storage houses that would be visible everywhere.

Even the smallest village would have to have a large storage house where people could store provisions for at least 3-4 years, possibly more. If they don't have that, they have no means to live through winter.

It is not that difficult to imagine how large such houses would have to be in a city like KL, but even the food the few hundred denizens of a village would eat in four years would occupy a pretty large space.

[Free Northman Reborn]

19 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

I know those quotes. But they don't exclude the possibility that even wiser men cannot also store parts of their harvests in summer. It only makes clear that it is sort of mandatory beginning autumn. But the gist of it is that lords and their people can do as they please. It is up to them how much they set aside. The Starks and there people can make suggestions and give them commands but whether people follow those is unclear. If there was a traditional rule how much to set aside the steward of Deepwood Motte wouldn't throw around his tenth part stuff.

I mean, we know that autumn was so short this cycle that people only got 1-2 harvests in due to time constraints, especially in the war-torn regions (Riverlands and North, parts of the Westerlands). The idea that people can live through a years-long winter off the fifth part or quarter of 1-2 harvests is just ridiculous.

This contradiction may be resolvable if we assume that George originally intended for autumn to last throughout the planned five year gap. Then this kind of thing makes some sense. Else I don't really think I can take this scenario seriously, never mind what's stated in the books.

Aside from the NW nobody even seems to have storage houses where the winter provisions are kept. Winterfell doesn't have large cellars we know of, and there are no such storage houses above the ground. And neither are any such to be seen anywhere, not in KL, nor in village and holdfast we see in the chapters of the traveling POVs.

That is where the plausibility of this series breaks down. It is already unbelievable that people (and their animals) in a medieval setting can live through year long winters, but it is completely unbelievable that they can do so without huge storage houses that would be visible everywhere.

Even the smallest village would have to have a large storage house where people could store provisions for at least 3-4 years, possibly more. If they don't have that, they have no means to live through winter.

It is not that difficult to imagine how large such houses would have to be in a city like KL, but even the food the few hundred denizens of a village would eat in four years would occupy a pretty large space.

You can't just decide which parts of the books you want to believe and which not. If clearly quoted evidence cannot convince you then debate is futile, isn't it. You want to believe that the North is a desolate wasteland  with a bare minimum population, and that is what you will continue to believe. Books notwithstanding.

Even with a 5 year Autumn, it makes no difference. Because for simplicity's sake we are assuming that Autumn and Winter are equally long. Meaning that whatever is saved over Autumn is expected to last during Winter.

This one fifth guideline has clearly been established over thousands of years as an acceptable practice in the North. And since Autumns traditionally don't exceed Winters in duration, we can safely assume that one fifth the produce of an entire Autumn, is enough to see the North's population through a Winter of equal length.

Now, I am willing to be even more generous, and add the entire last Autumn harvest to that stockpile, assuming that Winter arrives immediately after that last harvest, thus leaving 100% of that last harvest still in store at the start of Winter. Meaning 20% of each of the prevous Autumn harvests, plus 100% of the last Autumn harvest.

So, the ratio would then be, if we assume a 3-year Autumn and assuming 2 harvests per year on average (so 6 Autumn harvests in total) - 20% stored of the first 5 harvests of Autumn, and 100% of the last one, adding up to 2 full harvests in store when Winter arrives. And this assumes a Winter of equal length, meaning a 3 year Winter. So 2 harvests in storage will last 3 years. So each year the North consumes two thirds of a harvest to sustain itself. And since we assumed two harvests being produced each year, that means they only need one third of each harvest to feed themselves. So two thirds of each harvest is surplus.

And that's based on Autumn yields. Summer will do even better.

 

[Lord Varys]

48 minutes ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

You can't just decide which parts of the books you want to believe and which not. If clearly quoted evidence cannot convince you then debate is futile, isn't it.

I certainly can point out obvious mistakes in the books. And that's such a case. If you want to try to create a consistent world on such an unrealistic and unbelievable foundation you can do that. I won't.

48 minutes ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

You want to believe that the North is a desolate wasteland  with a bare minimum population, and that is what you will continue to believe. Books notwithstanding.

The North is pretty much are bare wasteland. We see this in the books. There are two population centers in the North, White Harbor and to a lesser degree Barrowton. That's it. And we don't have the slightest indication that there are populous anywhere in the North. We know some regions where pretty much nobody is living anymore, like the Gifts, the Stony Shore, or Sea Dragon Point, but we don't actually know how many people live in the Manderly, Bolton, Karstark, and Umber lands.

We also have no idea where and how many people in the North actually live as peasants. Many people at shores seem to subsist on fishing - the clansmen at the Bay of Ice, the Bear Islanders, the Stony Shore folk, the people on Cape Kraken, the people at the mouth of the White Knife (and most likely also White Harbor to a considerable degree), and presumably also most of the people on the eastern shore.

48 minutes ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

Even with a 5 year Autumn, it makes no difference. Because for simplicity's sake we are assuming that Autumn and Winter are equally long. Meaning that whatever is saved over Autumn is expected to last during Winter.

Autumn and winter usually are not equally long. People don't know how long any season is advance.

48 minutes ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

This one fifth guideline has clearly been established over thousands of years as an acceptable practice in the North.

That isn't what's written in the text.

48 minutes ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

And since Autumns traditionally don't exceed Winters in duration, we can safely assume that one fifth the produce of an entire Autumn, is enough to see the North's population through a Winter of equal length.

How do you know that autumns traditionally don't exceed winters in duration?

You weirdo calculation doesn't make a lot of sense because you know that the lords at Winterfell only spoke about the winter provisions of the castles of the lords present, right? But the Northmen as a population most definitely won't survive even a half-year-winter on whatever food their lords have stored in their castle. Or do you think all the Glover people can live off whatever food can be stored at Deepwood Motte? Or the Hornwood people on what's stored at Hornwood?

That doesn't make any sense.

[Free Northman Reborn]

29 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

I certainly can point out obvious mistakes in the books. And that's such a case. If you want to try to create a consistent world on such an unrealistic and unbelievable foundation you can do that. I won't.

The North is pretty much are bare wasteland. We see this in the books. There are two population centers in the North, White Harbor and to a lesser degree Barrowton. That's it. And we don't have the slightest indication that there are populous anywhere in the North. We know some regions where pretty much nobody is living anymore, like the Gifts, the Stony Shore, or Sea Dragon Point, but we don't actually know how many people live in the Manderly, Bolton, Karstark, and Umber lands.

We also have no idea where and how many people in the North actually live as peasants. Many people at shores seem to subsist on fishing - the clansmen at the Bay of Ice, the Bear Islanders, the Stony Shore folk, the people on Cape Kraken, the people at the mouth of the White Knife (and most likely also White Harbor to a considerable degree), and presumably also most of the people on the eastern shore.

Autumn and winter usually are not equally long. People don't know how long any season is advance.

That isn't what's written in the text.

How do you know that autumns traditionally don't exceed winters in duration?

You weirdo calculation doesn't make a lot of sense because you know that the lords at Winterfell only spoke about the winter provisions of the castles of the lords present, right? But the Northmen as a population most definitely won't survive even a half-year-winter on whatever food their lords have stored in their castle. Or do you think all the Glover people can live off whatever food can be stored at Deepwood Motte? Or the Hornwood people on what's stored at Hornwood?

That doesn't make any sense.

No need to display your lack of understanding of basic arithmetic, which you seem to not get to grips with. My calculation was not some "weirdo" shit at all. It was a very basic extrapolation, saying that they save a fifth of every Autumn harvest, except the very last one, which is gathered just before Winter starts, meaning they can add that full harvest to their stores. That throws you a bone, so to speak, as I would otherwise be quite happy to stick with merely one fifth of the total Autumn harvest, which is supported by the books.

As for me assuming the seasons to be of equal length, that was me going out of my way to be generous, because the general impression we are left with is that Summer and Winter are the two dominant seasons, with Spring and Autumn generally being somewhat shorter interludes that seperate them. So by assuming an Autumn that more or less equals Winter, I was being accommodating, nothing more.

As for the other point you diverted to now - as is your habit when a specific argument clearly refutes your position - I am quite happy that at last you acknowledge that the populations around Karhold, the Dreadfort, Deepwood Motte etc. represent only a fraction of the total populations of those regions. And that just because Rickard took most of the men around Karhold, or the Greatjon took most of the men around the Last Hearth, does not mean that they also took most of the men 50 miles away. But I'm sure in this instance you will interpret Alys's statement the opposite way again, seeing it as an acknolwedgment that Rickard emptied all 50,000 square miles of the Karstark lands of able bodied men.

Anything to suit your pre-existing views, after all.

As another example, you are eager to take on faith that most of the North is empty, yet Dorne, which was ironically named the Empty Land and which is burning sand for much of its extent, is somehow not. Heck, we even have the Prince of Dorne himself stating outright that Dorne is the least populated of the Kingdoms, and yet you try to interpret that as him merely trying to dissuade Arriane from going to war.

What is it with your obsession to depict the North as the least populated of the Seven Kingdoms. I simply don't get it. But clearly you are very invested in the idea.

[Lord Varys]

2 minutes ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

No need to display your lack of understanding of basic arithmetic, which you seem to not get to grips with. My calculation was not some "weirdo" shit at all. It was a very basic extrapolation, saying that they save a fifth of every Autumn harvest, except the very last one, which is gathered just before Winter starts, meaning they can add that full harvest to their stores. That throws you a bone, so to speak, as I would otherwise be quite happy to stick with merely one fifth of the total Autumn harvest, which is supported by the books.

I know my numbers, I wasn't (home-)schooled in the US, after all. But jokes aside, the problem here isn't your calculation but the numbers you put in the calculation. They are arbitrary. We don't know how many harvests there are in a given year in a given season, and we cannot really know anything about all that until George is giving us any good information on that subject.

And the idea that the last harvest goes completely in storage is pretty obvious. But then, most of the previous harvest would also go into 'provisional storage', too, since people can't eat up everything at once, or can they?

2 minutes ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

As for me assuming the seasons to be of equal length, that was me going out of my way to be generous, because the general impression we are left with is that Summer and Winter are the two dominant seasons, with Spring and Autumn generally being somewhat shorter interludes that seperate them. So by assuming an Autumn that more or less equals Winter, I was being accommodating, nothing more.

People talk a lot of winter and summer and not so often about spring and autumn but we actually have no textual evidence that spring and autumn are, on average, shorter than summer and winter. Winter and summer can be both pretty long and pretty short which means that the same could be true for spring and autumn. There could easily enough be, say, a three-year-autumn and a two-year-winter, say, or a four year spring and a three-year-summer. We simply do not know.

Aside from the popular belief that a long summer means there will also be a long winter (which seems to be confirmed for King Maekar's long summer as well as the six-year-winter that followed it) we have really no good understanding of this entire thing.

2 minutes ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

As for the other point you diverted to now - as is your habit when a specific argument clearly refutes your position - I am quite happy that at last you acknowledge that the populations around Karhold, the Dreadfort, Deepwood Motte etc. represent only a fraction of the total populations of those regions.

Did I do that? I don't think I did that. I said that the fact that Arnolf and the Umbers show up with such meager forces as they do in ADwD when they in fact had more time to raise additional troops now that the harvest season is over makes it rather unlikely that they had any good reserves left.

You only raise old men and green boys if there is nothing else left. And if Rickard Karstark and Jon Umber didn't get all the young/middle-aged men then Arnolf and Mors/Hother would have larger host consisting of better men.

The idea that the Umbers, Karstarks, Manderlys, Dustins, Ryswells, etc. sat on their hands doing nothing since they learned that Winterfell has fallen - followed by the news of the Red Wedding - doesn't exactly make a lot of sense. They didn't assemble the forces we see only when Stannis wrote his letters and Roose announced his intention to come to the North.

2 minutes ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

And that just because Rickard took most of the men around Karhold, or the Greatjon took most of the men around the Last Hearth, does not mean that they also took most of the men 50 miles away. But I'm sure in this instance you will interpret Alys's statement the opposite way again, seeing it as an acknolwedgment that Rickard emptied all 50,000 square miles of the Karstark lands of able bodied men.

Well, that depends. How do you interpret that? Will only the men around Karhold suffer in winter because they failed to harvest the crops, or will all Karkstark people suffer? The impression I get is that the latter is true. Everything would be still pretty fine if only the people at Karhold and the lands around them would starve. They could still go to the people who brought all the harvest and take a portion from their provisions.

The vibe one gets is that especially the Karstarks and Umbers are at the end of their rope. If they weren't they would have more and better men. Lord Rickard took all his three sons with him to war. That was a mistake. A mistake others in his service may have done, too. Else there would have been men left to bring in the harvest. If just one of a hundred able-bodied men is off to war there should be no trouble bringing the harvest in. 

And no, even if most of those men came from the lands adjacent to the castle there would have been more than enough to hire or call on additional farmhands from the hinterlands to do the job.

And by the time of ADwD the harvest season is already over. Whatever men were occupied with the harvest have now time to go to war. That's what the clansmen are doing as I've already said. But all the other houses aside from the Dustins and Ryswell and Manderlys seem to be spent. Even the Boltons are. Roose main strength consists of the men he brought back home, not on additional levies Ramsay raised.

I mean, just compare the North to the Reach for a moment. Renly has allegedly 80,000 men at Bitterbridge. Most of them are from the Reach. But the Hightower and Redwyne men are not with him. And when the Ironborn attacked the Shield Islands those islands weren't empty, either. The men were there and they fought. They lost because Euron came with his entire strength and from a direction they didn't expect an enemy to come. The Ironborn threat is a serious threat but it is nothing the Reach can't handle strength-wise. Mace and Tarly have no reason to abandon the siege of Storm's End or march from Maidenpool back home to fight off the Ironborn. The Reach is strong enough to raise additional hosts to deal with that threat while 30,000-40,000 men remain in KL.

Now compare that the situation in the North when the Ironborn attacked it or to the current conflict up there right now. In the Reach and the Stormlands tens of thousands of people will clash in the coming battles, on sea and land alike, while the Boltons and Stannis may not even have ten thousand men combined.

2 minutes ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

After all, you are eager to take on faith that most of the North is empty, yet Dorne, which was ironically named the Empty Land and which is burning sand for much of its extent, is somehow not. Heck, we even have the Prince of Dorne himself stating outright that Dorne is the least populated of the Kingdoms, and yet you try to interpret that as him merely trying to dissuade Arriane from going to war.

I never said that Dorne wasn't empty. That wasn't the point. The point was that the size of population doesn't necessarily have anything to do with the question how much food that population can produce via agriculture. Those are completely different things.

I never said the sands of Dorne were full of people. In fact, the fact that most of the Dornishmen are likely concentrated in settlements alongside the rivers (and in the fertile mountain valleys) might actually enable to produce much more food than the Northmen can because they can work the fertile ground they have much more efficiently than the Northmen can.

Again, we know where pretty much nobody lives in the North, but we don't know where many people live in the North (aside from White Harbor). If most of the people live by themselves in isolated farms or very small villages then the chances that the people there work the ground they have very efficiently are very low.

The impression one gets is that the North is bleak wilderness aside from the few settlements that are there. Around those places there would be fields and orchards and signs of people living there. Elsewhere there is wilderness and emptiness.

2 minutes ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

What is it with your obsession to depict the North as the least populated of the Seven Kingdoms. I simply don't get it. But clearly you are very invested in the idea.

I never said the North was the least populated of the Seven Kingdoms. And Doran Martell is actually wrong there. The Iron Islands must have a lower population than Dorne.

Also keep in mind that the population size does not necessarily have anything to do with the portion of that population you might be able to rally to fight under certain conditions. When Dorne is attacked then half or more of the entire population might be willing to take up the spear and defend their home. That is not the case in the North or elsewhere in Westeros.

[Graydon Hicks]

wow, this got mean in a hurry from last night. and once again, yall have gotten off topic and sunk back into a north/anti-north debate. i just wanted to you opinions on specialties of military.

[Free Northman Reborn]

40 minutes ago, Graydon Hicks said:

wow, this got mean in a hurry from last night. and once again, yall have gotten off topic and sunk back into a north/anti-north debate. i just wanted to you opinions on specialties of military.

Apologies. I took umbrage at the "weirdo calculation" accusation, and my responding post was therefore a bit harsher than I would otherwise have liked.

Regarding the topic, these issues are all very inter connected. Dornish light armour, sand steeds and military tactics are a result of their climate, resources and history. So too the military specialities and capabilities of the other regions. I don't really think the issues should be divorced from one another, if one seeks a proper understanding of the comparisons.

[Graydon Hicks]

of course, but like you, i am a bit of a pro-north person. hell, chalk it up to my love affair with norse mythology. i find the northern snese of honor is pervasive in both the real world and fantasy. so i kinda have some bias in favor for how the north operates.

[Lord Varys]

5 hours ago, Graydon Hicks said:

wow, this got mean in a hurry from last night. and once again, yall have gotten off topic and sunk back into a north/anti-north debate. i just wanted to you opinions on specialties of military.

I tried to talk a little bit about that above. But there is not that much difference between the people of Westeros in that regard. The best-equipped knights and lords are likely to be found in the Reach and the West, although those of the Riverlands and the Vale and the Stormlands should not be far behind.

The best warriors of the main land of Westeros should be found in the Dornish Marches (both on the Reach and Stormlands side) due to centuries or even millennia of continuous warfare in the region.

The Ironborn would have the highest ratio of warriors among their (common) people. Pretty much any man on the Iron Islands who isn't a thrall is expected to fight. They are not all well-equipped but raised in a culture were fighting is part of your life. They should be, on average, far exceed the fighting capabilities of the men making up the bulk of the armies in the greenlands if there is a war there.

The Dornish houses having a strong cavalry of armored knights are likely mostly the houses in the Red Mountains. They are the most Andalish of the Dornishmen, and their long history of warfare with the Reach and the Stormlands likely led to them perfecting the arts of war just as much as the people of the Dornish Marches did. The cavalry of the Dornishmen living in the sands and down in the Sunspear region are most likely not wearing all that much plate. That would be, well, ridiculous considering the climate.

The Northmen seem, on average, to be not as well armored as the knights/lords of the South. But we don't know how much difference that makes on the battlefield. Tywin crushed Roose's army at the Green Fork pretty easily (but then, those were mostly infantry), and Jaime cut through Robb's retinue and bodyguards like cheese (but then, he was one of the greatest fighters alive). Back during the Dance we see how effective the Northmen fighting for Rhaenyra could be in their kamikaze attacks (especially when Lord Roderick Dustin gave his own life to kill Lord Ormund Hightower - that cut off the head of the Green army in the Reach, preventing it from attacking KL). If you are suicidal and your enemy is not your side has a good chance to win even against overwhelming odds (assuming not all your men are suicidal). That is something to be considered in the coming battle between Stannis and the Boltons - the clansmen are willing and prepared to die for Ned's little girl, the men fighting for Roose don't exactly have the same deep conviction. Most of his men are only kept in line by fear. He can count the majority of his own troops, the Freys, and the Dusins and Ryswell as long as Lady Barbrey continues to support him.

The really interesting thing are the strength and capabilities of the people in Essos. There is much more difference there. The Dothraki may be lightly armored but they are still a very powerful cavalry, especially since they are trained to use their bows while riding, and the dragonbone bows - which seem to be pretty common among them - they use are the best bows in the world. The Dothraki should make short work of any Westerosi consisting mostly of infantry, and they should also be able to deal with the armored knights (using their higher mobility and bows as a tactical advantage).

Of the armies assembled at Meereen right now the Yunkish slave soldiers are a joke. The only real soldiers there are the Ghiscari legions of New Ghis - those are trained soldiers made up of free citizens - and the sellsword companies. The strength of the Volantene tiger soldiers that are about to show up in Slaver's Bay is difficult to determine but since they are a standing army of a Free City which was tried to rebuild the Freehold of Valyria we can be pretty sure that they are very professional soldiers, too.

[Free Northman Reborn]

2 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

I tried to talk a little bit about that above. But there is not that much difference between the people of Westeros in that regard. The best-equipped knights and lords are likely to be found in the Reach and the West, although those of the Riverlands and the Vale and the Stormlands should not be far behind.

The best warriors of the main land of Westeros should be found in the Dornish Marches (both on the Reach and Stormlands side) due to centuries or even millennia of continuous warfare in the region.

The Ironborn would have the highest ratio of warriors among their (common) people. Pretty much any man on the Iron Islands who isn't a thrall is expected to fight. They are not all well-equipped but raised in a culture were fighting is part of your life. They should be, on average, far exceed the fighting capabilities of the men making up the bulk of the armies in the greenlands if there is a war there.

The Dornish houses having a strong cavalry of armored knights are likely mostly the houses in the Red Mountains. They are the most Andalish of the Dornishmen, and their long history of warfare with the Reach and the Stormlands likely led to them perfecting the arts of war just as much as the people of the Dornish Marches did. The cavalry of the Dornishmen living in the sands and down in the Sunspear region are most likely not wearing all that much plate. That would be, well, ridiculous considering the climate.

The Northmen seem, on average, to be not as well armored as the knights/lords of the South. But we don't know how much difference that makes on the battlefield. Tywin crushed Roose's army at the Green Fork pretty easily (but then, those were mostly infantry), and Jaime cut through Robb's retinue and bodyguards like cheese (but then, he was one of the greatest fighters alive). Back during the Dance we see how effective the Northmen fighting for Rhaenyra could be in their kamikaze attacks (especially when Lord Roderick Dustin gave his own life to kill Lord Ormund Hightower - that cut off the head of the Green army in the Reach, preventing it from attacking KL). If you are suicidal and your enemy is not your side has a good chance to win even against overwhelming odds (assuming not all your men are suicidal). That is something to be considered in the coming battle between Stannis and the Boltons - the clansmen are willing and prepared to die for Ned's little girl, the men fighting for Roose don't exactly have the same deep conviction. Most of his men are only kept in line by fear. He can count the majority of his own troops, the Freys, and the Dusins and Ryswell as long as Lady Barbrey continues to support him.

The really interesting thing are the strength and capabilities of the people in Essos. There is much more difference there. The Dothraki may be lightly armored but they are still a very powerful cavalry, especially since they are trained to use their bows while riding, and the dragonbone bows - which seem to be pretty common among them - they use are the best bows in the world. The Dothraki should make short work of any Westerosi consisting mostly of infantry, and they should also be able to deal with the armored knights (using their higher mobility and bows as a tactical advantage).

Of the armies assembled at Meereen right now the Yunkish slave soldiers are a joke. The only real soldiers there are the Ghiscari legions of New Ghis - those are trained soldiers made up of free citizens - and the sellsword companies. The strength of the Volantene tiger soldiers that are about to show up in Slaver's Bay is difficult to determine but since they are a standing army of a Free City which was tried to rebuild the Freehold of Valyria we can be pretty sure that they are very professional soldiers, too.

Lord Varys

I would like to explain why the figure of a fifth of the harvest being saved during Autumn is very telling, no matter how long Autumn happens to be, or how many harvests there are per year.

Basically, without going into a lot of math, it is known that only a fifth of each harvest is saved. And that this will be sufficient to support the Northern population for what they estimate will be the duration of Winter.

So, let's say there are 4 harvests in a year ( for arguments sake, since previously I estimated only 2). And that Autumn lasts 2 years. That means they save 20% of 7 harvests, and 100% of the last harvest. That's the equivalent of 2.4 harvests saved. And if they are optimistic and assume a Winter of equal length to Autumn, then that means 2.4 harvests can last them through 2 years of Winter.

So that means in two years they only need to consume 2.4 harvests. And yet, because we assumed 4 harvests per year when it is not Winter, that means they can normally produce 8 harvests over two years. That means 8 harvests produced versus 2.4 consumed to survive. So a consumption ratio of 2.4/8 = 30%. Meaning 70% of each harvest is surplus to basic feeding needs.

This calculation will remain the same in principle, no matter how many harvests you assume can be produced in a year, or how long you presume the seasons to be. Because the one side scales with the other. The key issue is the 20% that is deemed sufficient to be set aside for Winter purposes. That means that the surplus in any given harvest will always be huge. It may vary from 80% down to 66% surplus, based on a realistic range of season lengths we may use in the calculation, but will ALWAYS be huge.

This passage is of immense significance in understanding the productive capacity of the North.

[Corvo the Crow]

Quote

"The plan was good, I grant him," Victarion said as she knelt beside him. "The Mander is open to us now, as it was of old." It was a lazy river, wide and slow and treacherous with snags and sandbars. Most seagoing vessels dared not sail beyond Highgarden, but longships with their shallow draughts could navigate as far upstream as Bitterbridge. In ancient days, the ironborn had boldly sailed the river road and plundered all along the Mander and its vassal streams . . . until the kings of the green hand had armed the fisherfolk on the four small islands off the Mander's mouth and named them his shields.

A quote on Ironborn. They appear to go as far deep in land as their ships can.

 

Quote

"I have never seen the Iron Islands."
"Count yourself fortunate." Theon stroked her hair. it was fine and dark, though the wind had made a tangle of it. "The islands are stern and stony places, scant of comfort and bleak of prospect. Death is never far here, and life is mean and meager. Men spend their nights drinking ale and arguing over whose lot is worse, the fisherfolk who fight the sea or the farmers who try and scratch a crop from the poor thin soil. If truth be told, the miners have it worse than either, breaking their backs down in the dark, and for what? Iron, lead, tin, those are our treasures. Small wonder the ironmen of old turned to raiding."

"Once I might have carried you home as a prize, and kept you to wife whether you willed it or no. The ironmen of old did such things. A man had his rock wife, his true bride, ironborn like himself, but he had his salt wives too, women captured on raids."
The girl's eyes grew wide, and not because he had bared her breasts. "I would be your salt wife, milord."
"I fear those days are gone." Theon's finger circled one heavy teat, spiraling in toward the fat brown nipple. "No longer may we ride the wind with fire and sword, taking what we want. Now we scratch in the ground and toss lines in the sea like other men, and count ourselves lucky if we have salt cod and porridge enough to get us through a winter."

Once I would have kept her as a salt wife in truth, he thought to himself as he slid his fingers through her tangled hair. Once. When we still kept the Old Way, lived by the axe instead of the pick, taking what we would, be it wealth, women, or glory. In those days, the ironborn did not work mines; that was labor for the captives brought back from the hostings, and so too the sorry business of farming and tending goats and sheep. War was an ironman's proper trade. The Drowned God had made them to reave and rape, to carve out kingdoms and write their names in fire and blood and song.
Aegon the Dragon had destroyed the Old Way when he burned Black Harren, gave Harren's kingdom back to the weakling rivermen, and reduced the Iron Islands to an insignificant backwater of a much greater realm. Yet the old red tales were still told around driftwood fires and smoky hearths all across the islands, even behind the high stone halls of Pyke. Theon's father numbered among his titles the style of Lord Reaper, and the Greyjoy words boasted that We Do Not Sow.
It had been to bring back the Old Way more than for the empty vanity of a crown that Lord Balon had staged his great rebellion.

Ironborn way of living during the start of the series.

Quote

 Great Wyk was the largest of the Iron Islands, so vast that some of its lords had holdings that did not front upon the holy sea. Gorold Goodbrother was one such. His keep was in the Hardstone Hills, as far from the Drowned God's realm as any place in the isles. Gorold's folk toiled down in Gorold's mines, in the stony dark beneath the earth. Some lived and died without setting eyes upon salt water. Small wonder that such folk are crabbed and queer.

When he woke the day was bright and windy. Aeron broke his fast on a broth of clams and seaweed cooked above a driftwood fire. No sooner had he finished than the Merlyn descended from his towerhouse with half a dozen guards to seek him out. "The king is dead," the Damphair told him."Aye. I had a bird. And now another." The Merlyn was a bald round fleshy man who styled himself "Lord" in the manner of the green lands, and dressed in furs and velvets. "One raven summons me to Pyke, another to Ten Towers. You krakens have too many arms, you pull a man to pieces. What say you, priest? Where should I send my longships?"

Not all are in touch with the sea and some like to pay the golden price instead of iron, it seems.

[Knight of the Red Tree]

10 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

The Dothraki may be lightly armored but they are still a very powerful cavalry, especially since they are trained to use their bows while riding, and the dragonbone bows - which seem to be pretty common among them - they use are the best bows in the world. The Dothraki should make short work of any Westerosi consisting mostly of infantry, and they should also be able to deal with the armored knights (using their higher mobility and bows as a tactical advantage).

Perhaps heavy infantry (who could be simply dismounted knights) would be one of the best tactics to use. Since the dowhatever would retreat when the knights charged, charge while they retreated, all while firing arrows. Just wait till the bastards come to you, then. That battle the dothtraki lost to the unsullied (I think it's Jorah that mentions it) might be inspired in the real-life Battle of Tours, in which the forces of the Franks, led by Charles Martel and fighting as heavy infantry defeated the - probably numeric superior - forces of the muslim invaders which fought as light cavalry.

Now, in real life, whenever an eastern light cavalry tried to stand up to an heavy frankish or norman charge, the results would just be funny. Don't remember if the dothraki are supposed to mount ponies like the mongols. The famous arabian horses were also weak compared to the western european battle horses, bred for power in areas in which pastures were abundant, since the force of the cavalry charge comes from the strenght of the horse. Also the difference in armor is decisive at close quarters.

[Lord Varys]

1 hour ago, Corvo the Crow said:

Not all are in touch with the sea and some like to pay the golden price instead of iron, it seems.

That is true, but we see that Euron effectively emptied the islands when he sailed to war. He took all the men, and there is no hint that he allowed the lords who do sow to stay behind. The ideal still is that of the raider, and the overwhelming majority of the people are living off fishing. Those men are right now all manning the ships of the Ironborn. Not all men who are expected to fight will actually fight but I'm pretty sure that more than half of the male Ironborn with the fleet right now, perhaps even two thirds or three quarters. Chances are that only old men and green boys remained behind.

The factor deciding how many men joined Euron most likely were the number of long ships they had.

14 minutes ago, Knight of the Red Tree said:

Perhaps heavy infantry (who could be simply dismounted knights) would be one of the best tactics to use. Since the dowhatever would retreat when the knights charged, charge while they retreated, all while firing arrows. Just wait till the bastards come to you, then. That battle the dothtraki lost to the unsullied (I think it's Jorah that mentions it) might be inspired in the real-life Battle of Tours, in which the forces of the Franks, led by Charles Martel and fighting as heavy infantry defeated the - probably numeric superior - forces of the muslim invaders which fought as light cavalry.

The problem is likely going to be that Westeros doesn't have all that much heavy cavalry (when compared to the cavalry the Dothraki are able to bring to the field) and thus also no large amount of heavy infantry.

The Unsullied in front of Qohor won their victory because they were disciplined enough to hold their ground against the Dothraki trying to ride them down. They only won because the Dothraki were unwilling to change their tactics and the Unsullied essentially maintained their inhuman discipline. If the Dothraki had surrounded them they would have won easily enough.

And we can be reasonably sure that if the Dothraki ever end up facing a Westerosi army they will be advised and directed by people who know the fighting style and strategies of the knights. On the other side most knights won't know how the fight the Dothraki. The Golden Company might but we'll have to wait and see how many of them will still be around by the time Dany arrives.

The knights of Westeros are not nearly as disciplined as the Unsullied. They certainly are powerful warriors and able to fight in groups but they have never faced riders like the Dothraki in battle. They are used to fight other knights and badly armored infantry armed with pikes and spears.

The Dothraki could easily enough crush an entire Westerosi armies before they even meet each other directly if they use those dragonbone bows effectively.

[Knight of the Red Tree]

14 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

The problem is likely going to be that Westeros doesn't have all that much heavy cavalry (when compared to the cavalry the Dothraki are able to bring to the field) and thus also no large amount of heavy infantry.

And we can be reasonably sure that if the Dothraki ever end up facing a Westerosi army they will be advised and directed by people who know the fighting style and strategies of the knights. On the other side most knights won't know how the fight the Dothraki. The Golden Company might but we'll have to wait and see how many of them will still be around by the time Dany arrives.

But Daenerys only has three full-fledged dothraki warriors anyway.

16 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

The Unsullied in front of Qohor won their victory because they were disciplined enough to hold their ground against the Dothraki trying to ride them down. They only won because the Dothraki were unwilling to change their tactics and the Unsullied essentially maintained their inhuman discipline. If the Dothraki had surrounded them they would have won easily enough.

I don't think this "ride them down" thing would work. Horses don't have enough guts to charge that fiercely into close formations of armed men. Again refering to Tours. Of course real life battles are one thing and what Martin thinks about how they work are another, so I guess I'll stop bringing up this kinda talk.

Flanking is a different matter.

24 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

The Dothraki could easily enough crush an entire Westerosi armies before they even meet each other directly if they use those dragonbone bows effective

Where did you read that those were supposed to be somewhat common? I only remember reading that they were greatly prized by the dothraki. Since dragonbone is actual dragon bone and one such weapon was a wedding gift to the bride of their most powerful king, shouldn't they be instead somewhat rare?

[Universal Sword Donor]

2 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

That is true, but we see that Euron effectively emptied the islands when he sailed to war. He took all the men, and there is no hint that he allowed the lords who do sow to stay behind. The ideal still is that of the raider, and the overwhelming majority of the people are living off fishing. Those men are right now all manning the ships of the Ironborn. Not all men who are expected to fight will actually fight but I'm pretty sure that more than half of the male Ironborn with the fleet right now, perhaps even two thirds or three quarters. Chances are that only old men and green boys remained behind.

The factor deciding how many men joined Euron most likely were the number of long ships they had.

The problem is likely going to be that Westeros doesn't have all that much heavy cavalry (when compared to the cavalry the Dothraki are able to bring to the field) and thus also no large amount of heavy infantry.

The Unsullied in front of Qohor won their victory because they were disciplined enough to hold their ground against the Dothraki trying to ride them down. They only won because the Dothraki were unwilling to change their tactics and the Unsullied essentially maintained their inhuman discipline. If the Dothraki had surrounded them they would have won easily enough.

And we can be reasonably sure that if the Dothraki ever end up facing a Westerosi army they will be advised and directed by people who know the fighting style and strategies of the knights. On the other side most knights won't know how the fight the Dothraki. The Golden Company might but we'll have to wait and see how many of them will still be around by the time Dany arrives.

The knights of Westeros are not nearly as disciplined as the Unsullied. They certainly are powerful warriors and able to fight in groups but they have never faced riders like the Dothraki in battle. They are used to fight other knights and badly armored infantry armed with pikes and spears.

The Dothraki could easily enough crush an entire Westerosi armies before they even meet each other directly if they use those dragonbone bows effectively.

How many Ironborn do you think there are?

Dany got a dragonbone bow for a reason. It's a gift worthy of the greatest's khal's khaleesi. I'd be very surprised if there were more than 100 in Drogo's entire khalasar.

[Lord Wraith]

6 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

That is true, but we see that Euron effectively emptied the islands when he sailed to war. He took all the men, and there is no hint that he allowed the lords who do sow to stay behind. The ideal still is that of the raider, and the overwhelming majority of the people are living off fishing. Those men are right now all manning the ships of the Ironborn. Not all men who are expected to fight will actually fight but I'm pretty sure that more than half of the male Ironborn with the fleet right now, perhaps even two thirds or three quarters. Chances are that only old men and green boys remained behind.

The factor deciding how many men joined Euron most likely were the number of long ships they had.

Lord Varys what percentage of the Ironborn would you say that Balon took to war with him? It seems that it was mostly the Iron Fleet, which was his own personal military force and closest allied Houses: Botley, Harlaw etc. I think the majority of the Ironborn didn't go to war.

However I agree that Euron has emptied the island for his Reach invasion.
 

[Lord Varys]

11 hours ago, Knight of the Red Tree said:

But Daenerys only has three full-fledged dothraki warriors anyway.

It most likely is going to stay that way.

11 hours ago, Knight of the Red Tree said:

I don't think this "ride them down" thing would work. Horses don't have enough guts to charge that fiercely into close formations of armed men. Again refering to Tours. Of course real life battles are one thing and what Martin thinks about how they work are another, so I guess I'll stop bringing up this kinda talk.

Flanking is a different matter.

The story of Qohor is that the Dothraki there insisting on charging directly into the Unsullied again and again. They killed a lot of them doing that, but much more Dothraki died. Whether this is realistic I don't know but I'm pretty convinced that a large force of screaming Dothraki charging into Westerosi infantry will quickly disperse them. They are not used to this kind of warfare. Usually a Westerosi levy would expect to face a few hundred or thousand mounted knights, but not tens of thousands.

11 hours ago, Knight of the Red Tree said:

Where did you read that those were supposed to be somewhat common? I only remember reading that they were greatly prized by the dothraki. Since dragonbone is actual dragon bone and one such weapon was a wedding gift to the bride of their most powerful king, shouldn't they be instead somewhat rare?

George repeatedly gave us a hierarchy of bows in his story. Longbows of Westerosi wood (the best seem to be the archers of the Dornish Marches), then the goldenheart bows of the Summer Islanders (which are likely going to be used very effectively by Black Balaq and his archers of the Golden Company), and then the dragonbone bows of the Dothraki. Those bows are introduced to the story very early on in AGoT. Tyrion even reads about the property of dragonbone in that book of his while he visits the Wall.

I'm not expecting that every Dothraki rider has a dragonbone bow but if we take all the Dothraki it certainly could be thousands, or even tens of thousands. And those men will then make a major difference.

Valyrian steel is also more common in Essos than in Westeros (for obvious reasons), and the Valyrians had dragons for thousands of years. Many of them would have died, and a dragon the size of Balerion most likely left enough bones to make hundreds of dragonbone bows. Perhaps even thousands.

We have to keep in mind that the Dothraki raided dozens of cities in Essos since the Doom. They would have acquired a lot of resources this way.

9 hours ago, Universal Sword Donor said:

How many Ironborn do you think there are?

I honestly don't know. Considering the low fertility of the islands there should be fewer men there than on many of the other islands of equal or similar size - Fair Isle, the Arbor, the Shield Islands, Tarth and Estermont, perhaps even the Three Sisters (although they also don't seem to be very fertile).

9 hours ago, Universal Sword Donor said:

Dany got a dragonbone bow for a reason. It's a gift worthy of the greatest's khal's khaleesi. I'd be very surprised if there were more than 100 in Drogo's entire khalasar.

See above. Also note that Dany got a special dragonbone bow, just as she got a special whip and a special arakh. There might be cheaper weapons of that kind. Note that the dagger Joffrey gives that has a dragonbone hilt and a Valyrian steel blade yet it doesn't seem to be that costly. There certainly could be hundreds or thousands more common dragonbone bows among the Dothraki.

5 hours ago, Lord Wraith said:

Lord Varys what percentage of the Ironborn would you say that Balon took to war with him?

I'd have to check that. Right now I remember that Victarion took the entire Iron Fleet up the Fever to take Moat Cailin. A lot of Ironborn were there to cut of the North from the South, and the bulk of them only returned to the Iron Islands after Victarion learned that Balon was dead and Euron had returned.

Asha took another strong force to take Deepwood, and Aeron, Dagmer, and Theon the smallest to the Stony Shore. From there Theon started his Winterfell gamble with the few forces he had.

5 hours ago, Lord Wraith said:

It seems that it was mostly the Iron Fleet, which was his own personal military force and closest allied Houses: Botley, Harlaw etc. I think the majority of the Ironborn didn't go to war.

However I agree that Euron has emptied the island for his Reach invasion.

Balon wouldn't have sent as many men to war as Euron later took but it should have been still a sizable force. One assumes he left a big part of the fleet back at home to be prepared should the Redwyne or royal fleet pull off a Robert and attack him at home. They did that, once, after all.

But Euron doesn't give a shit about the Iron Islands. If the Lannisters decided to invade them right now with whatever fleet they might have at Lannisport he wouldn't help the people back there, just as he doesn't intend to send any help to the Ironborn on the Shields.

[direpupy]

On 29-5-2017 at 4:17 PM, Lord Varys said:

1)Alyn Velaryon would have navigated the Greenblood using big ships. That means it is navigable, at least up to a point.

2)But we know that a lot of crops actually died from the frost in autumn in AFfC and ADwD. The Glovers and Karstarks lost their last harvest, and it seems similar things happened in the Umber lands. If they had crops that could survive frost for a certain period of time they would have used those, one assumes. The fact that they did indicates that they don't have any of those - or that George is as ignorant about agricultural details as I am, assuming that the crops he mentioned don't survive the autumn frost.

3)You don't have the textual evidence to actually do that. We don't know how much food the North produces. We also don't know how many people live up there, how fertile the ground is, etc.

4)Now, I never said that Dorne produces more food than the North. I said I could see it doing that if the Greenblood shores were as fertile as the Nile valley.

5)The Stannis quote refers to how things were when Daeron I was coming down the Boneway. Presumably the fleet would have been farther up the stream when Daeron was finally in the sands. 

1)Apparently you did not read everything again, it is explicitly stated that the greenblood is shallow, so a galley that has a shallow draft sure, a big merchant ship hell no. And on top of that you don't know how big Alyn's ships where he could have used ships with just 50 ores whe know for a fact from the battle of the Blackwater the royal fleet has such ships.

2)As Free Northman said the crops deid because there was no one to bring them in they did not die from frost, as a matter of fact frost is not mentioned at all its heavy rains that push the stalks into the ground. when that happens youy have to harvest imidiatly or the food will rot on the ground. So really its lack of people to harvest not the weather it self thats the problem.

3) There is ample evidence that can be used to make an educated guess, but if you want to go this route there is no evidence for how much food Dorne produces iether, so then the whole discussion becomes a mute point.

4) Yes you did and now you are backing out of it because the evidence points against you.

5) No it does not it states how far he got, it never links it to where Daeron was at the time.