Behind Robert's Rebellion - Tywin's Toil

[DarkBastard]

I have a theory and no one to talk to about it...most of the fans I know are not completely wrapped up in ASoIaF like I am.  So this is my theory of the events leading up to the reign of Robert Baratheon:

Tournament at Harrenhal:  Tywin and King Aerys II had become distant prior to this event, after repeated diminishing perpetrated by Aerys against House Lannister (refusing to wed Rhaegar to Cersei, attraction to Joanna, comments following the birth of Tyrion, etc.).

It’s commonly known that the tournament could not have been bankrolled by Lord Whent, and that Tywin could have funded the event.  I believe Tywin established a dialogue with Rhaegar and encouraged him to use the tournament as a front for discussing the overthrow of Aerys.  At this point, Tywin planned to eventually eliminate Elia Martell and Rhaegar’s children…probably framing Aerys himself for the crime…in order to place Cersei as Rhaegar’s queen.

This is why Varys warned Aerys of the potential plot.  As he Varys often says, he serves The Realm; Lannister plots to seize power in this way would be a detriment to that desire.  He likely wanted Rhaegar to ascend, but not in a way that gave Tywin a hold over the crown.  His concern for Rhaegar’s association with Tywin led him to inform Aerys.

The Problem:  The attendance of Aerys and the Knight of the Laughing Tree soured Tywin’s plot.  Rhaegar discovered Lyanna as the KotLT, learned the nobility surrounding why she did it, and they began to fall in love.  I believe Lyanna did not love Robert Baratheon, and that she was prepared to break the betrothal and run away with Rhaegar (in fact, I think she left Winterfell on her own accord, alone without Rhaegar).  We have no details surrounding her departure, and I think it was easier for Robert to believe Rhaegar “abducted” her rather than the the reality that she rejected his love.  So begins the events that led to the start of the rebellion.

The Result:  Tywin’s original plans thwarted, he kept his forces in the west to see how things would play out.  If Aerys and Rhaegar survived the rebellion, how could he secure power?  Even if he were to somehow “eliminate” Elia and Rhaegar’s children without attribution, Rhaegar would marry Lyanna.  This is where it gets interesting:

Aerys sent for Rhaegar, who came up from the south (presumably from the Tower of Joy), leaving Lyanna behind.  When he arrived in King’s Landing he tried to convince his father to seek help from Tywin Lannister.  Why?  I think Tywin enticed Rhaegar to do this in order to get him away from the Tower of Joy.  How did he know they were at the Tower?  Pycell knew Rhaegar had been sent for and informed Tywin.  Tywin intercepted Rhaegar during his return and convinced him to urge Aerys to seek Lannister assistance.  This would get Tywin into the city to remove Aerys while Rhaegar attended to Robert Baratheon.  At this meeting, Tywin may have learned that Lyanna was carrying Rhaegar’s child.  Regardless, Lyanna would have to die.

I believe Tywin told Rhaegar he would send food and aid to the Tower of Joy for Lyanna.  After the meeting he put a new plan in place to poison Lyanna.  In AGoT (Chapter 4, Eddard I) Ned learns that King Robert planned to send Jon Arryn’s son Robert to foster with Tywin at Casterly Rock. We get a glimpse at something subtle: 

“Ned would sooner entrust a child to a pit viper than to Lord Tywin, but he left his doubts unspoken.  Some old wounds never truly heal, and bleed again at the slightest word."

A common assumption is that this is relating to the treatment of Elia Martell and Rhaegar’s children.  Is that really a “wound” that “bleeds” for Ned?  Of course he was angered by that, but not as a personal wound.  That was followed up by the following:

“The wife has lost the husband,” he said carefully.  “Perhaps the mother feared to lose the son.  The boy is very young.”

He doesn’t put this into the context of Lysa Arryn, choosing “carefully” to leave it without attribution…I believe hinting to his sister and her child…making Tywin the potential cause of her death - the "wounds" that "never truly heal".  Remember, she died with blood and a fever, which could indicate poison that complicated the birth and caused her body to fight the foreign substance.  No one else died (that we know of), so this would have had to be targeted to Lyanna somehow…perhaps an elixir claimed to help strengthen the unborn child?  Perhaps even a direct attempt on her life.  Tywin's assassins could have gotten close based on his relationship with Rhaegar, then been killed by the Kingsguard before completing the action.  Not sure about the method, but I believe Tywin had a hand in this...and Lyanna or Wylla knew and informed Ned.  Ned couldn't prove it, and couldn't go to Robert because he had Jon Snow with him.  By the time he would even have a chance to tell Robert, Cersei was already betrothed and/or married.

With the death of Lyanna Stark, Cersei would be the prime candidate for either Robert (who lost his betrothed) or Rhaegar (who needed a “third head” for the prophecy).  Upon the death of Rhaegar, Tywin marched to King’s Landing, telling Aerys he was there in response to the request for assistance.  Varys knew Tywin was plotting against Aerys (as discussed earlier) and advised against letting the Lannister army into the city.  It was Pycell who convinced Aerys to let them in…again assisting Tywin by facilitating his sack of the city.  Tywin then directed The Mountain to eliminate the Elia and the children to finalize his plan.

Lastly, from Pycell:  “Once Rhaegar died, the war was done.”  It was done because Tywin would finish it, and Robert would have to be King…with Cersei by his side.

Am I missing anything?

[Lord Wraith]

Here is another take on the topic.

http://thelasthearth.com/thread/417/rhaegars-catspaw-assassin

[elder brother jonothor dar]

Yes you are missing what started the rebellion.  Tywin and Rhaegar plotting to get rid of the king was likley as was the involvment of other great lords.  But Tywin toiling had almost nothing to do with staring the rebellion, down to Rhaehar/lyanna Brandons reaction and finally Aerys response.

 

Tywin involved with Lyanna no proof at all

 

Jaime laughed. "Do you think the noble Lord of Winterfell wanted to hear my feeble explanations? Such an honorable man. He only had to look at me to judge me guilty." Jaime lurched to his feet, the water running cold down his chest. "By what right does the wolf judge the lion? By what right?

 

Jaime killed the king he swore to protect, Tywin sacked the city even after its gates where opened and he kills the children all things that would make Ned hate them but Robert and Jon reward them by keeping Jaime as a KG and Tywin with finally geting the marriage for his daughter.

 

Not sure how you get Tywin to intercept Rhaegar somehow somewhere a civil war is going on Tywin is not going to go marching randomly through other people's lands

[Danelle]

In regards to the Tourney, the fact that the money offered were more than the sum that Tywin had offered at a previous tourney, lead people believe that someone else was behind the event. We don't know who, but Rhaegar is the most likely candidate. 

Let us not forget that there was tension between Rhaegar and Aerys, which is why Varys arrived in KL, Tywin might be accussed of many things but he did not turn the son against the father. Besides Rhaegar had limited contact with Tywin, and had his own supporters, whose interests were not necessarily same as Tywin's. And of course there is this: 

Quote

Chief amongst the Mad King's supporters were three lords of his small council: Qarlton Chelsted, master of coin, Lucerys Velaryon, master of ships, and Symond Staunton, master of laws. The eunuch Varys, master of whisperers, and Wisdom Rossart, grand master of the Guild of Alchemists, also enjoyed the king's trust. Prince Rhaegar's support came from the younger men at court, including Lord Jon Connington, Ser Myles Mooton of Maidenpool, and Ser Richard Lonmouth. The Dornishmen who had come to court with the Princess Elia were in the prince's confidence as well, particularly Prince Lewyn Martell, Elia's uncle and a Sworn Brother of the Kingsguard. But the most formidable of all Rhaegar's friends and allies in King's Landing was surely Ser Arthur Dayne, the Sword of the Morning.

To Grand Maester Pycelle and Lord Owen Merryweather, the King's Hand, fell the unenviable task of keeping peace between these factions, even as their rivalry grew ever more venomous. In a letter to the Citadel, Pycelle wrote that the divisions within the Red Keep reminded him uncomfortably of the situation before the Dance of the Dragons a century before, when the enmity between Queen Alicent and Princess Rhaenyra had split the realm in two, to grievous cost. A similarly bloody conflict might await the Seven Kingdoms once again, he warned, unless some accord could be reached that would satisfy both Prince Rhaegar's supporters and the king's.

Also I am finding it very hard to believe that Tywin had planned the murder of Elia and the children before the events of RR.

The main reason is the impact of the act not on society but on Rhaegar himself, how was Tywin expecting Rhaegar to react to the news of the deaths of his wife and children? Cry and then happily marry Cersei? The same Rhaegar who was greatly affected by Summerhall, years after the event took place? 

Elia and the children were murdered after Rhaegar had been killed at the Trident and when the war was almost won and Robert Baratheon was the de facto King. Tywin's involvement was above everything else a brutal political message to Robert and Jon Arryn: I am on your side. 

Also, we know from Barristan that Rhaegar only trusted Arthur. I am sorry but as intriguing as the idea of Tywin's assasins killing  or attempting to kill Lyanna may sound, it is extremely unlikely. 

[DarkBastard]

Thanks for the feedback!  It is just a theory, not claiming anything is fact here.

Is it really hard to believe that Tywin would plot to remove a queen in order to further his house?  He was angered greatly by Aerys saying Cersei was not worthy to wed Rhaegar...a "brusque rejection" calling him a "servant"...among all the other slights as their relationship deteriorated. 

It strikes me as odd, with all the scheming and plotting we know Tywin has done...that you can't even consider that he could have planned the death of those who stood in the way of the ascension of his house.  There was no other way to gain a foothold of that magnitude.  If Rhaegar had killed Robert and Tywin marched on Kings Landing to overthrow the Mad King, he could have killed Elia and the children and blamed it on whoever he wanted.  Rhaegar would be crushed (emotionally), then to hear Lyanna "died in childbirth" he would be alone.

Who other than Cersei, the daughter of the man who helped him remove his lunatic father, would be left for Rhaegar to marry?  Particularly with the "wise" Grand Maester Pycell whispering in his ear...

[Bernie Mac]

13 minutes ago, DarkBastard said:

 If Rhaegar had killed Robert and Tywin marched on Kings Landing to overthrow the Mad King,

 

Rhaegar would not be supporting Tywin to do that. It is an act of war against his own family, his father, mother, wife, children and siblings and nobles of the capital. 

Tywin marches on the capital because Robert had won, he would not have had to if Rhaegar had won and Rhaegar, as the conquering hero and leader of the royal army, could depose his father legally. 

[DarkBastard]

8 minutes ago, Bernie Mac said:

Rhaegar would not be supporting Tywin to do that. It is an act of war against his own family, his father, mother, wife, children and siblings and nobles of the capital. 

Tywin marches on the capital because Robert had won, he would not have had to if Rhaegar had won and Rhaegar, as the conquering hero and leader of the royal army, could depose his father legally. 

Bad choice of word using overthrow...rather to "secure the king" until Rhaegar's return.  Tywin could have secured the Red Keep and "discovered" Elia (and perhaps even the king himself) had been killed by whomever (Robert's assassins, a servant loyal to the rebellion, a Baratheon sympathizer at court...whomever).  Rhaegar would likely trust his word.  Tywin could have killed anyone, including Varys and any other witnesses and create whatever truth he wished.  

The possibilities are endless on how it would/could be done, my point is that Tywin would be going there no matter what...he would leave nothing to chance.  Not looking to argue the semantics, just saying that once the rebellion had started, Tywin had to ensure Lyanna's death in order to raise his house through marriage regardless of the outcome.  Just a theory!

[devilish]

1 hour ago, elder brother jonothor dar said:

Yes you are missing what started the rebellion.  Tywin and Rhaegar plotting to get rid of the king was likley as was the involvment of other great lords.  But Tywin toiling had almost nothing to do with staring the rebellion, down to Rhaehar/lyanna Brandons reaction and finally Aerys response.

 

Tywin involved with Lyanna no proof at all

 

Jaime laughed. "Do you think the noble Lord of Winterfell wanted to hear my feeble explanations? Such an honorable man. He only had to look at me to judge me guilty." Jaime lurched to his feet, the water running cold down his chest. "By what right does the wolf judge the lion? By what right?

 

Jaime killed the king he swore to protect, Tywin sacked the city even after its gates where opened and he kills the children all things that would make Ned hate them but Robert and Jon reward them by keeping Jaime as a KG and Tywin with finally geting the marriage for his daughter.

 

Not sure how you get Tywin to intercept Rhaegar somehow somewhere a civil war is going on Tywin is not going to go marching randomly through other people's lands

Jamie's excuse is very pathetic tbh. If Ned was made to see the boxes of hidden wildfire then he would have understood. The problem with Jamie was that he thought that a lion shouldn't be answerable to a savage Northman. He was wrong on that of course because soon enough everyone hated the Kingslayer

[elder brother jonothor dar]

You keep saying somehow somewhere someone.  Tywin stayed out of the war and jumped on board the winning team.  He would have willingly been Rhaegars hand but Rhaegar was dead, he has an opportunity to get rid of the mad king and took it.

 

When he joined team Robert Lyanna should have been queen.  He could not know that his daughter would have been the next queen.  No he did not plan to kill both Ella or Lyanna

 

Robert's relief was palpable. As stupid as he was, even he knew that Rhaegar's children had to die if his throne was ever to be secure. Yet he saw himself as a hero, and heroes do not kill children." His father shrugged. "I grant you, it was done too brutally. Elia need not have been harmed at all, that was sheer folly. By herself she was nohing."

 

No master plan to kill either of them just "We had come late to Robert's cause. It was necessary to demonstrate our loyalty. "

[Bernie Mac]

24 minutes ago, DarkBastard said:

Bad choice of word using overthrow...rather to "secure the king" until Rhaegar's return.

The King was already secured. He was in Kings Landing and not going anywhere. Rhaegar could have returned the hero, with the respect and loyalty of the royalists and gone through the process of legitimately replacing his father. 

Tywin attacking Kings Landing does not help Rhaegar, and his family getting hurt in the process only gives cause to piss him off. 

 

[Ralphis Baratheon]

Tywin hadn't betrothed Cersei to anyone even after Rhaegar had been married to Elia for years. Was it simply because Elia was considered to be in poor health? Or was Tywin plotting something?

[Bernie Mac]

2 minutes ago, Ralphis Baratheon said:

Tywin hadn't betrothed Cersei to anyone even after Rhaegar had been married to Elia for years. Was it simply because Elia was considered to be in poor health? Or was Tywin plotting something?

Elia was sickly, Viserys was still an option and Cersei was still only 15 when the war broke out. Plenty of time to find a suitable husband for her.

[DarkBastard]

10 hours ago, Lord Wraith said:

Here is another take on the topic.

http://thelasthearth.com/thread/417/rhaegars-catspaw-assassin

Very interesting!  Thanks for sharing that!

[devilish]

We know that the Martells were threatened by Aerys to join the war, else Elia would suffer. Strangely enough, Tywin was never threatened. Why would be the case? The Lannisters could raise more troops then the Martells. Unlike the Martells who wanted Aegon to one day be king, the Lannisters had no interest in the Targeryan dynasty at all. That ship sailed long ago when Rhaegar married Elia. So what stopped Aerys from threatening Tywin with Jamie in the same way he did to Doran with Elia?  

We all know that prior to Robert’s rebellion the relationship between the king and the crown prince was already strained.  There were suspicions that Rhaegar was going to use the tournament of Harrenhal as a pretext to convince lords to turn against his father, hence why Aerys made sure he went to Harrenhal himself. We also know that before the battle of the trident Rhaegar told Jamie that he intended to sort this problem after his victory at the trident. We can assume that Tywin learnt about that through Jamie. Rhaegar’s treachery was so deep that 2 KG ie the Sword of the morning and the white bull prefered guarding the crown prince lover then their own king.

However lets forget about Tywin for a minute and lets focus on the battle of the trident. Rhaegar’s army at the battle of the trident was 40k strong. Robert’s army was slightly smaller. The latter compensated to that by fighting on home turf + they were battle hardened.

If Rhaegar won the battle at the trident then we can still assume that he would have suffered heavy casualties. A quarter of his army would probably end up killed with another quarter being injured. The Rebels won’t bend the knee immediately. As said the Riverlands is rebel’s turf and its renowned for its castles. Rhaegar will have to besiege those castles and force the rebels to surrender.

Now back to Tywin. The old lion invaded with an army of 12k. The Westerlands can raise far more troops than that, so we can assume that Tywin could rely on a 20k army at a blink of an eye if he wanted. Walder’s son is Tywin’s brother in law and the fact that the two stayed out of the war is suspicious. The Freys could raise a further 4k if needed.  Assuming that the two were working together then we can conclude that Tywin could easily reach the Riverlands with a 24k army, all fresh for the fight ahead.That can easily surprise and break Rhaegar's depleted army.

So what was Tywin’s alternative plan?

I believe that Aerys and Tywin had already cooked a plan on how to proceed after Rhaegar has won. Tywin’s army would surprise the tired loyalist army, breaking the Crown prince army’s back before he could set the ball rolling for his revolt. The old lion would then bring Rhaegar in chains alongside Robert, Ned and co and he would use his son as witness of Rhaegar’s treachery towards the rightful king of Westeros.

In exchange, Aerys would release Jamie from the KG, he would allow the new crown prince Viserys to marry Cersei and he would probably give the Riverlands to Walder Frey. Tywin would be restored as hand of the king and the two would return good buddies as they were before.

That would explain why Aerys (who was renowned for his paranoia) allowed Jamie to be so close to him and was so easily swayed to open KL gates to Tywin. The two had been planning stuff together and there was no reason for the mad king to believe that his friend would want to harm him.

 

 

 

[DarkBastard]

GREAT points devilish, definitely possible as well!  I think we can say for certain that Tywin had a scheme (probably multiple) in order to ensure House Lannister would prevail regardless of the victor.  

My only pause in the possibility of a Tywin/Aerys alliance is that Aerys was so incredibly unstable. As Jamie would have reported, the wildfire was throughout King's Landing and I don't believe Tywin would entrust his future to the Mad King.  

In this scenario I think he may have done everything you said; drag Robert, Ned, Rhaegar and the others in front of Aerys...but then killed all of them, taking the throne for himself.  With the loyalist armies crushed and the rebellion dead, the only remaining foe would be Highgarden...Mace would have bent the knee. 

[devilish]

4 hours ago, DarkBastard said:

GREAT points devilish, definitely possible as well!  I think we can say for certain that Tywin had a scheme (probably multiple) in order to ensure House Lannister would prevail regardless of the victor.  

My only pause in the possibility of a Tywin/Aerys alliance is that Aerys was so incredibly unstable. As Jamie would have reported, the wildfire was throughout King's Landing and I don't believe Tywin would entrust his future to the Mad King.  

In this scenario I think he may have done everything you said; drag Robert, Ned, Rhaegar and the others in front of Aerys...but then killed all of them, taking the throne for himself.  With the loyalist armies crushed and the rebellion dead, the only remaining foe would be Highgarden...Mace would have bent the knee. 

You need to see it from Tywin cynical POV. Sure the relationship with Aerys was unstable but the old lion had neither the casus belli nor the blood line to usurp his crown. With Jamie in KL there was a real risk of losing his golden lion if he acted stupidly. 

Aerys would still be king. However as Egg can testify, being king means nothing unless you've got the backing of your Lords. The Lannisters are a military and financial powerhouse with historical friendly ties with the Reach. These two regions is what is keeping Aerys from being torn into shreds by a furious North, Vale, Riverlands and Dorne (Rhaegar will be considered as traitor and his children will be removed from inheriting the crown). If Aerys decide to treat the man who kept him on his throne like crap then he cannot really expect Mace to back him up as it is evident that the king has no respect towards loyal bannermen who raise armies and risk their neck to protect him. That means that Aerys and Tywin's relationship will change from that of a king and a mere hand of the king to a similar relationship to what Joffrey and Tywin had a generation later.

How would that translate? Its difficult to say however here is my pick

a-  Tywin would be declared as Lord Protector of the realm and hand of the king

b- Cersei will finally marry the crown prince.

c- Tywin will argue that crown doesnt have the troops to invade the North and the Vale. Under such circumstances the king will be better off granting Ned and Jon an unconditional pardon as long as they both bend the knee. That might sound extreme but will find support from Mace whose probably in no mood to spend years freezing in the cold. 

 

Things are different with the Tullys and expecially the Baratheons. Both houses were appointed LPs by the Targs for their loyalty. So its only fair for them to lose that title after they betrayed the king. The Tullys on the other hand deserve less punishment then the Baratheons as the latter have Targ blood running in their veins. I can see Tywin asking the Tullys to retain Riverrun buy lose their LP status to the Freys while the Baratheons will lose both LP status and the Stormlands. Whose best to manage the Stormlands then the Lord Protector's own brother Kevan Lannister?

d- Tywin will keep adding his men at court as he did with Robert. Aerys would be guarded by Lannister men. He will be served wine from Lannister men and will get cured by Pycelle aka a Lannister man. Aerys will have a better KG then Robert did. However with the commander of the gold cloaks on Lannister payroll that will mean very little. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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[DarkBastard]

Good points all around.  My thoughts came from something I noticed in TWOIAF.  It was said that Robert's legitimacy would hinge on the Citadel, who would likely view the Targaryen blood in his lineage as justification.  On several occasions it is noted that Pycelle sent letters to the Citadel praising Tywin:

On his appointment:

"At twenty years of age, Ser Tywin thus became the youngest Hand in the history of the Seven Kingdoms. Many Maesters to this day insist that his appointment was the wisest thing 'Aerys the Wise' ever did."   -Aerys II, Page 113

On his successes as Hand:

"The gods made and shaped this man to rule," Grand Maester Pycelle wrote of Tywin Lannister in a letter to the Citadel after serving with him on the small council for two years." -Aerys II, Page 114

"In all these efforts he was greatly aided by Grand Maester Pycelle, whose accounts of the reign of Aerys II give us our best portrait of this time." -Aerys II, Page 114

After stating that his rivals charged he was humorless, unforgiving, unbending, proud, and cruel:

"Only lady Joanna truly knows the man beneath the armor," Grand Maester Pycelle wrote the Citadel, "and all his smiles belong to her and her alone.  I do avow that I have even observed her make him laugh, not once, but on three occasions." -Aerys II, Page 115

On rumors of Joanna giving her maidenhead to Prince Aerys:

"As Pycelle insists in his letters, Tywin Lannister would scarce have taken his cousin to wife if that had been true, "for he was ever a proud man and not one accustomed to feasting on another man's leavings"  -Aerys II, Page 115

On the decline of the mad king's sanity:

"Lord Tywin looms as large as Casterly Rock" wrote grand Maester Pycelle, "and no king has ever had so diligent or capable a Hand."

Also, after Aerys' rude remarks regarding the death of Joanna:

"It was not long before reports of the king's remarks reached lord Tywin as he grieved at Casterly Rock.  There after, no shred of the old affection between the two men endured."

During the Defiance of Duskendale Tywin's actions concerned the small council, warning that it may cause Lord Darklyn to put Aerys to death.  Tywin responded by saying "He may or he may not. But if he does, we have a better king right here"  indicating Rhaegar.

The final straw was the appointment of Jamie as Kingsguard, resulting in Tywin's retirement as Hand and return to Casterly Rock.  His house was in grave danger of being ruined without Jamie (no way he would let Tyrion become heir).  This is when the plotting truly began, and I don't think he was going to let Aerys continue.  Just my two coppers!

[elder brother jonothor dar]

On Monday, May 22, 2017 at 10:11 PM, DarkBastard said:

 

“Ned would sooner entrust a child to a pit viper than to Lord Tywin, but he left his doubts unspoken.  Some old wounds never truly heal, and bleed again at the slightest word."

A common assumption is that this is relating to the treatment of Elia Martell and Rhaegar’s children.  Is that really a “wound” that “bleeds” for Ned?  Of course he was angered by that, but not as a personal wound.  That was followed up by the following:

Found it ,

and a bold man to wield it.” Ned did not feign surprise; Robert’s hatred of the Targaryens was a madness in him. He remembered the angry words they had exchanged when Tywin Lannister had presented Robert with the corpses of Rhaegar’s wife and children as a token of fealty. Ned had named that murder; Robert called it war. When he had protested that the young prince and princess were no more than babes, his new-made king had replied, “I see no babes. Only dragonspawn.” Not even Jon Arryn had been able to calm that storm. Eddard Stark had ridden out that very day in a cold rage, to fight the last battles of the war alone in the south. It had taken another death to reconcile them; Lyanna’s death, and the grief they had shared over her passing.

[DarkBastard]

Yes!  Thanks for posting that.  His anger was directed at Robert for accepting the killing of children, referenced by the fact that their only reconciliation was in shared grief over Lyanna's death. 

The fact that he was able to fully reconcile with his best friend who lauded the murder of children was not an "old wound" still bleeding...but it is for the man that may have given the order?  I just can't accept that alone...I think there is more to it.  I hope someday to find out!

[Prof. Cecily]

On 5/23/2017 at 5:53 AM, Lord Wraith said:

Here is another take on the topic.

http://thelasthearth.com/thread/417/rhaegars-catspaw-assassin

I've been following the conversation and wanted to thank @Lord Wraith for the link! 

On 5/23/2017 at 3:16 PM, DarkBastard said:

... Not looking to argue the semantics, just saying that once the rebellion had started, Tywin had to ensure Lyanna's death in order to raise his house through marriage regardless of the outcome.  Just a theory!

Why? Rhaegar is married to the Dornish princess Elia. And Rhaegar has a brother Cersei could marry. There's also  a sister of Rhaegar's for a male Lannister to wed.

I'm very curious about why you think Lyanna, who is simply a prince's fancy, would be of any importance to Lord Tywin.