Mance Rayder and Petyr Baelish are allies

[Lord Wraith]

11 minutes ago, Makk said:

That probably came across as a bit snarky, sorry.

But I don't believe there is any merit to the argument. The only real hint would be that he is potentially a very good swordsman with a greatsword. Against that you have to deal with all the history about Mance and claim it is fake. Why would Ned say he may have to deal to the king beyond the wall if he knew he was Arthur Dayne? Why would the Targaryen Loyalists at the wall like Alliser Thorne or Jeremy Rykar not know him? The ages don't really seem to fit well either.

If, and I don't really think this is likely either, Arthur survived the Tower of Joy, I think Quorin Halfhand would be a better fit.

Ah no worries.

While the greatsword bit is a strong evidence to me. Mainly because it is such a specialized weapon, the only two greatsword we know of that get used in active combat are Dawn and Heartsbane. Also the Mountain Clans of the North champions are supposed to wield two handed greatswords. So maybe Mance has some unknown connection to them?

No its the bit about uniting all the various Wildling tribes together.

Quote

Mance had spent years assembling this vast plodding host, talking to this clan mother and that magnar, winning one village with sweet words and another with a song and a third with the edge of his sword, making peace between Harma Dogshead and the Lord o' Bones, between the Hornfoots and the Nightrunners, between the walrus men of the Frozen Shore and the cannibal clans of the great ice rivers, hammering a hundred different daggers into one great spear, aimed at the heart of the Seven Kingdoms. He had no crown nor scepter, no robes of silk and velvet, but it was plain to Jon that Mance Rayder was a king in more than name.

Also the fact that he just knows think that a ranger that spent his whole life on the wall wouldn't know anything about. I am reminded of Jaime thinking about the Kingswood Brotherhood and how Dayne defeated them.

Quote

"Good luck getting answers then," said Jaime. "If you want their help, you need to make them love you. That was how Arthur Dayne did it, when we rode against the Kingswood Brotherhood. He paid the smallfolk for the food we ate, brought their grievances to King Aerys, expanded the grazing lands around their villages, even won them the right to fell a certain number of trees each year and take a few of the king's deer during the autumn. The forest folk had looked to Toyne to defend them, but Ser Arthur did more for them than the Brotherhood could ever hope to do, and won them to our side. After that, the rest was easy."

Mance does have an incredible capacity to win people to his side. He even survived Stannis and getting burned.

As I said its far from conclusive but here are a few points that point toward it IMO.

I also see how the Halfhand fits but then he just dies without revealing anything which is a letdown.

[Makk]

Do you think this description of Mance sounds like Arthur Dayne?

". . . of Bael the Bard and the rose of Winterfell. So Stonesnake told me. It happens I know the song. Mance would sing it of old, when he came back from a ranging. He had a passion for wildling music. Aye, and for their women as well."

"You knew him?"

"We all knew him." His voice was sad.

They were friends as well as brothers, Jon realized, and now they are sworn foes. "Why did he desert?"

"For a wench, some say. For a crown, others would have it." Qhorin tested the edge of his sword with the ball of his thumb. "He liked women, Mance did, and he was not a man whose knees bent easily, that's true. But it was more than that. He loved the wild better than the Wall. It was in his blood. He was wildling born, taken as a child when some raiders were put to the sword. When he left the Shadow Tower he was only going home again."

"Was he a good ranger?"

"He was the best of us," said the Halfhand, "and the worst as well. Only fools like Thoren Smallwood despise the wildlings. They are as brave as we are, Jon. As strong, as quick, as clever. But they have no discipline. They name themselves the free folk, and each one thinks himself as good as a king and wiser than a maester. Mance was the same. He never learned how to obey."

I'm afraid I don't believe there is any chance Mance is Arthur Dayne

 

As for Qhorin, I don't think that is likely either, but there are at least a lot of symbolic hints (repetitive mentioning of Dawn, odd attraction to Jon Snow, turning back at Jon's dream, Jaime's joke of Dayne slaying them with his left hand while taking a piss with his right). It is possible it could still be revealed and would have given the "greatest knight" a heroic death than what he got if he died at the ToJ. From memory I have only seen a single passage about Qhorin that I felt was actually a good argument it couldn't be him...

"When I was no older than you, I heard a brother tell how he followed a shadowcat through these falls."

...which does imply, if not confirm, he was with the nightswatch at a younger age than possible. If GRRM wanted to hint that he was, I don't think he would have added this line.

[Wolf's Bane]

Rayder + Baelish = very powerful combination of two skilled manipulators

So Mance sent the killer to Bran and leave the knife behind the scene to point the fingers at the Lannisters.  You don't need valyrian steel to kill Bran.  That is, unless the master mind believed  valyrian steel will kill a skin changer and prevent a second life?  It's fun to think about but the knife was just a device to point the fingers to the Lannisters.  The killer kills Bran and leaves the knife behind at the scene of the crime.  The Starks will investigate and come to the conclusion that the knife must have come from somebody in the king's party. 

 

[Prof. Cecily]

13 hours ago, Lord Wraith said:

 

...Back on topic. I have always wondered about Val and Dalla, possible connections to the Moon Singers. Not sure when if Mance was in Braavos to meet Baelish. I just don't how the logistics of how that is possible.

That's why I suggested a meeting with a third parties or even agents.

However, I've had a full day to think over this idea and to read others' intriguing ideas and there is a very, very good reason to doubt Mance's involvement in all this, pace JP and the OP.

13 hours ago, SeaWitch said:

I've said elsewhere that I think Val is a reflection of Veleda, the seeress to Mance's Civilis.  She's the White Queen to Melisandre's Red.

The Wildling whatever is a response to the White Walkers, I think an entirely separate issue from the Southron shenanigans.

Most of ASoIaF seems to come from the violent collisions of other's people schemes.

If this were our own Earth, I'd agree with your thinking and the chess analogy. (A nod to The Eight or to Carroll?)

We're in Westeros, and the game here is cyvasse, which has no queen http://awoiaf.westeros.org/index.php/Cyvasse

I took the liberty of bolding that part of your message which could best sum up ASoIaF as well as serving as a warning not to over-egg our ideas.

13 hours ago, The Fattest Leech said:

That is a fun fact, and one I agree with.However, recently I have been wondering if Lysa was not poisoning herself, maybe unknowingly, with the makeup and clothes she wears. I came across an interesting article a few weeks ago about the poison in makeup and women's dresses a long time ago. Some women would literally spontaneously ignite because of the toxins, and the would go "mad" from the poisons that leached into their systems... their humors would be off.

Spoiler

 

It was called the "Arsenic waltz" https://hyperallergic.com/133571/fatal-victorian-fashion-and-the-allure-of-the-poison-garment/

And green dye in history was known to be a killer, as was makeup in general with the copious uses of lead, arsenic, and other poisons and irritants. Lommy Greenhands was a dyer's apprentice.

And then a recent new start of a reread reminded me how much the scene, verbiage, and process Cat has to take to get up to the Eyrie parallels the wall and the Black Gate. The Eryie, Weirwood throne, and Lysa all have the visuals of a twisted, dead "Bloodraven" cavern. So much information, it could be a thread of it's own.

When we meet Lysa, she is caked in makeup, and we know that Sansa loves lemon cakes, so there could be a connection. Plus, the Whent blood also helps Poison is a "women's work", but then again, so is wearing makeup (yes, in general).

• A Game of Thrones- Cat VI- ... in truth; five cruel years, for Lysa. They had taken their toll. Her sister was two years the younger, yet she looked older now. Shorter than Catelyn, Lysa had grown thick of body, pale and puffy of face. She had the blue eyes of the Tullys, but hers were pale and watery, never still. Her small mouth had turned petulant. As Catelyn held her, she remembered the slender, high-breasted girl who'd waited beside her that day in the sept at Riverrun.
  • "Quiet!" Lysa snapped at her. "You're scaring the boy." Little Robert took a quick peek over his shoulder at Catelyn and began to tremble. His doll fell to the rushes, and he pressed himself against his mother. "Don't be afraid, my sweet baby," Lysa whispered. "Mother's here, nothing will hurt you." She opened her robe and drew out a pale, heavy breast, tipped with red. The boy grabbed for it eagerly, buried his face against her chest, and began to suck. Lysa stroked his hair.
• A Game of Thrones - Sansa VI-    "I will need hot water for my bath, please," she told them, "and perfume, and some powder to hide this bruise." The right side of her face was swollen and beginning to ache, but she knew Joffrey would want her to be beautiful.
• A Storm of Swords - Sansa VI-      "You may come kiss my cheek, Alayne." Dutifully she approached and knelt beside the bed. Her aunt was drenched in sweet scent, though under that was a sour milky smell. Her cheek tasted of paint and powder.
• A Storm of Swords- Sansa VII- Amidst so much white marble even the sunlight looked chilly, somehow . . . though not half so chilly as her aunt. Lady Lysa had dressed in a gown of cream-colored velvet and a necklace of sapphires and moon-stones. Her auburn hair had been done up in a thick braid, and fell across one shoulder. She sat in the high seat watching her niece approach, her face red and puffy beneath the paint and powder. On the wall behind her hung a huge banner, the moon-and-falcon of House Arryn in cream and blue.

Basically, Sansa needs to get the F out of the Eyrie, and the F out of Auntie Crazy's makeup and dresses and lemoncakes. And hmmm, interesting, Creepyfinger tells Alyane to avoid the cream:

• Alayne looked down at her dress, the deep blue and rich dark red of Riverrun. "Is it too—"

"It is too Tully. The Lords Declarant will not be pleased by the sight of my bastard daughter prancing about in my dead wife's clothes. Choose something else. Need I remind you to avoid sky blue and cream?"

 

Anyway, that is all the off-topic I am doing for now. Sorry to the OP

 

 

There is a TV series about the different poisons in a Victorian household you might like. It mentions the arsenic connection.

 

I wonder if the make-up of old-school geishas wouldn't be a better analogy to the Westerosi cosmetics. Highly toxic, with known and observable damage to the skin.

 

13 hours ago, SeaWitch said:

...I have an interest in poisons for what you might call professional purposes(*), so yes, playing with Aunt Lysa's make-up box could be very bad.

I'm absolutely on board with the idea that she's been dosing SR unwittingly for years with whatever she's putting in her own system, equally unknowingly or otherwise.  The kid is, as someone put it elsewhere, the equivalent of a crack baby.

(*) crime writer, not serial killer

 

edit: though I think the cream he mentions there is the colour. He's telling her not to dress in Tully or Arryn colours.  

Could point about the colours. I don't recall seeing cream  mentioned as a dairy product in Westeros.

11 hours ago, Ferocious Veldt Roarer said:

 

OK, gimme some material from the books at least hinting at their cooperation. Is Littlefinger aware of the existence of Mance Rayder? Is Mance Rayder aware of the existence of Littlefinger? Have they ever met? When and where?

For starters.

Thanks for making us return to the real!

What we DO know, is that Mance claims to have been at the feast during King Robert's visit to WF.

6 hours ago, Moiraine Sedai said:

...Time and time again, suspicion leads to paranoid behavior which lead to ruin.  Mance would know this and use this psychological weapon against the Starks.  It worked on Catelyn.  Upon reaching K/L, either Lf is an opportunists who takes advantage and tells his lie to spread his own brand of chaos or Lf is in cahoots with Mance.  One thing we can be certain, these men had their spies in Winterfell and both are capable of sending an assassin to kill Bran. 

Indeed, in ASoIaF, everyone can be a killer or employer of a killer. I agree with you about the motif of paranoia in ASoIaF!

6 hours ago, 40 Thousand Skeletons said:

His job was to kill a child in a coma. The only thing that stopped him ultimately was Summer, and I doubt Mance could have predicted Summer would save the day. ...

I disagree with you there, @40 Thousand Skeletons . I think you've pointed to the real reason Mance couldn't have been involved in this plot. A Wildling who's seen the Stark children and their direwolves would not fail to take Summer into account in planning to kill Bran. 

2 hours ago, Lord Wraith said:

If you can find the link between Baelish and Mance I'm all ears. Well I have the notion that Baelish and Doran may be in cahoots.Parallels, hints in the books but certainly nothing conclusive other than the fact they seem to be running the same playbook. ...

You're quite right there about the hints.As for a link between Baelish and Mance, I can find none. Ah, well. Unless it's trade.

A link between Baelish and Dorne? Could shown by the lemons and the fruit in the Merling King's manifest.

4 hours ago, 40 Thousand Skeletons said:

Or, alternatively and more tinfoily, you could have a third party set up the meeting, like someone with a glass candle or BR himself.

Yes, that IS tinfoily. Baelish with a glass candle. It doesn't bear thinking of. 

58 minutes ago, Steelshanks Walton said:

 

 

[KingMance]

Hey guys, heard that some filthy rumors were being spread about me. I'm here to set the record straight.

I'm not a secret Targ, a Darry, or anyone else associated with Rhaegar. I dislike but respect the Starks and would never murder a child. Littlefinger is a terrible, Stark hating human being and I have never even spoken to him. And lastly I'm alive and (not so) well at Winterfell. 

[The Fattest Leech]

 

18 hours ago, SeaWitch said:

edit: though I think the cream he mentions there is the colour. He's telling her not to dress in Tully or Arryn colours.  

It is, but it could also have the double meaning of the poison in the "lemon cream". A throwback to Joffery's wedding cake poison. Just a crumb for those that prefer that method of poison delivery. 

Just being a little cheeky 

[40 Thousand Skeletons]

5 hours ago, Prof. Cecily said:

I disagree with you there, @40 Thousand Skeletons . I think you've pointed to the real reason Mance couldn't have been involved in this plot. A Wildling who's seen the Stark children and their direwolves would not fail to take Summer into account in planning to kill Bran. 

I am confused. What do you disagree with exactly?

But yes that is a good point. Mance would probably be smart enough to plan for the direwolves.

[SeaWitch]

2 hours ago, The Fattest Leech said:

 

It is, but it could also have the double meaning of the poison in the "lemon cream". A throwback to Joffery's wedding cake poison. Just a crumb for those that prefer that method of poison delivery. 

Just being a little cheeky 

Argh! I'm pushing on to the next book as fast as I can. 

(Poison via face-cream is easy, you can hide essential oils in lanolin.  Hemlock would work well as a paralytic.)

 

[The Fattest Leech]

8 minutes ago, SeaWitch said:

Argh! I'm pushing on to the next book as fast as I can. 

(Poison via face-cream is easy, you can hide essential oils in lanolin.  Hemlock would work well as a paralytic.)

 

Ah shoot! I hope I didn't ruin anything for you  It is all theory anyway. 

[SeaWitch]

15 minutes ago, The Fattest Leech said:

Ah shoot! I hope I didn't ruin anything for you  It is all theory anyway. 

Oh, I'm well spoiled   I'm quite cheerfully making up my own mind as I read, I just enjoy other people's take on it all.  

As someone who once nearly got chucked out of a pub over an argument about WotR, I feel quite at home here.

[The Commentator]

10 hours ago, KingMance said:

Hey guys, heard that some filthy rumors were being spread about me. I'm here to set the record straight.

I'm not a secret Targ, a Darry, or anyone else associated with Rhaegar. I dislike but respect the Starks and would never murder a child. Littlefinger is a terrible, Stark hating human being and I have never even spoken to him. And lastly I'm alive and (not so) well at Winterfell. 

It's good to know you're still in one piece. 

Mance loves his free spirit ways and he will not hesitate to torture and kill women and children if he thinks it will give him immunity from having to bend his knees and obey man's laws.  He's a rule breaker and would not let anything like morals keep him from what he wants. 

[SeaWitch]

3 minutes ago, Widowmaker 811 said:

It's good to know you're still in one piece. 

Mance loves his free spirit ways and he will not hesitate to torture and kill women and children if he thinks it will give him immunity from having to bend his knees and obey man's laws.  He's a rule breaker and would not let anything like morals keep him from what he wants. 

Born to be Wild(ling)... .?

[KingMance]

3 hours ago, Widowmaker 811 said:

It's good to know you're still in one piece. 

Mance loves his free spirit ways and he will not hesitate to torture and kill women and children if he thinks it will give him immunity from having to bend his knees and obey man's laws.  He's a rule breaker and would not let anything like morals keep him from what he wants. 

It's true Mance isn't big on the laws south of the border, but unless I've missed it I haven't read him torturing or killing any women or children. What he wants is to save the entirety of his wildling host. He's the first leader in the series alerted to and properly responding to the threat of the Others.

[40 Thousand Skeletons]

7 hours ago, KingMance said:

It's true Mance isn't big on the laws south of the border, but unless I've missed it I haven't read him torturing or killing any women or children. What he wants is to save the entirety of his wildling host. He's the first leader in the series alerted to and properly responding to the threat of the Others.

You must have missed that scene where he sanctioned torturing the children of suspected terrorists... oh wait that was Dany  

[Lord Wraith]

15 minutes ago, 40 Thousand Skeletons said:

You must have missed that scene where he sanctioned torturing the children of suspected terrorists... oh wait that was Dany  

Har!

[Prof. Cecily]

18 hours ago, 40 Thousand Skeletons said:

I am confused. What do you disagree with exactly?

But yes that is a good point. Mance would probably be smart enough to plan for the direwolves.

 

On 5/24/2017 at 7:31 AM, Prof. Cecily said:

I doubt Mance could have predicted Summer would save the day. ...

That's what I disagree with, @40 Thousand Skeletons. I think Mance would realised that their direwolves were a formidable protection for any of the Stark children. Kill his direwolf first, then the boy.

Anyway. There's yet the library fire to speculate about...

[40 Thousand Skeletons]

1 hour ago, Prof. Cecily said:

That's what I disagree with, @40 Thousand Skeletons. I think Mance would realised that their direwolves were a formidable protection for any of the Stark children. Kill his direwolf first, then the boy.

Anyway. There's yet the library fire to speculate about...

Aah I see. Well I agree he might have planned for dealing with the wolves, but I think it is a huge stretch to say that Mance could have predicted the real outcome with any certainty (unless he had a vision/orders from BR). And if you aren't certain of the outcome, giving the assassin LF's dagger would be almost pointless. It would be like the person said to themselves, "Well this has a chance of failing. And just in case it does, I'll go to extra lengths to make sure I plant a suspicious dagger that will end up sparking an entire war."

No. I think the presence of the dagger makes it clear that planting the dagger and starting the war was the entire point, and killing Bran was never the plan. I do actually think it is quite possible Mance was acting as an agent of BR here, because 1) the bag of silver is suspicious and was probably never even given to the assassin in the first place and 2) Mance has the climbing skills necessary to sneak around WF and set the library on fire. But LF could also definitely be involved, because after all, it is his dagger, and the consequences all play directly into his plans in KL.

But yes, the library fire was likely also super important on its own.

[The Commentator]

20 hours ago, KingMance said:

It's true Mance isn't big on the laws south of the border, but unless I've missed it I haven't read him torturing or killing any women or children. What he wants is to save the entirety of his wildling host. He's the first leader in the series alerted to and properly responding to the threat of the Others.

You know more than a few readers believe it was Mance who brought the wrath of the Others down on the kingdom.  Me?  I think the Starks did it.  It was something the Starks did.  

Mance would torture women and children if it allowed him to keep his "freedom" as he sees it. His morals, if they exist, are flexible and he is the worst kind of criminal, an oathbreaker.  Ned even said, no man is more dangerous than an oathbreaker.  

[Tom Cruise]

I've heard of this Preston Jacobs fellow many times here on the forums.  Never bothered to read anything he's written.  This thread reinforces that belief.  

I see this thread as fan fiction over any credible analysis.  

[KingMance]

4 hours ago, Widowmaker 811 said:

You know more than a few readers believe it was Mance who brought the wrath of the Others down on the kingdom.  Me?  I think the Starks did it.  It was something the Starks did.  

Mance would torture women and children if it allowed him to keep his "freedom" as he sees it. His morals, if they exist, are flexible and he is the worst kind of criminal, an oathbreaker.  Ned even said, no man is more dangerous than an oathbreaker.  

No, I've actually never heard a theory of Mance being the reason for the Others awakening. I could see it being the Starks fault though. 

I still don't see any hint or evidence of Mance hurting women or children. It's never brought up. He's definitely broken laws but I don't know if that makes him immoral.