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Would King Robert Baratheon better off having Tywin as H.O.K instead of Jon Arryn?


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Possibly. Robert may have been more subtle about his whoring with his father in law around and Jaime and Cersei may have had second thoughts about cuckolding the King (at least as early as they did) with their father around. 

 

Robert may have gotten genuine heirs had he picked Tywin as Hand. However events may well have kicked off as both Varys and Littlefinger wanted to destabilise the realm and we may have seen Tywin poisoned around the same time Arryn was in the current timeline. 

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No.  Cersei and Jaime wouldn't change their behavior, as they were planning on continuing their incest even before Tywin was dismissed as Aerys' hand, and given their "exploration" earlier in childhood, it's clear that Tywin was willing to turn a blind eye to what his children were doing after Joanna died.

Furthermore, MAYBE Tywin manages it rein in some of Robert's excesses, but only maybe.  Jon Arryn was very clearly interested in coalition building across the Seven Kingdoms, or at least the ones that supported the rebellion - Tywin is a pretty good feudal politician, but it would be difficult to be better at holding the realm together than Jon Arryn.

The key issue is legitimacy and trust.  The entire reason Robert wants Ned as his Hand is because he doesn't trust anyone else in his court, especially the Lannisters.  Tywin was late to Robert's cause, had earned the hatred of Kings Landing (in an immediate sense) and Dorne (longer term).  Ned Stark hates the man.  If Tywin is appointed Hand, it immediately fractures the entire Seven Kingdoms even further by breaking up the victorious Robert-led coalition that deposed Aerys.  Moreover, feudal politics is about distributing influence and land.  Here we are, where the Tully's, Arryns, Starks, and Baratheons had all risen in rebellion to depose a tyrant.  Tywin Lannister is worst of all, as he doesn't commit to either side, but gets rewarded by (a) having his daughter made Queen, (b) his son kept as a Kingsguard despite a gross violation of his oaths (Westeros doesn't know what we know) and (c) gaining the Handship.  Maybe Jon Arryn is kept on somewhere, but now we're looking at a Small Council dominated by Lannister interests (Tywin, Pycelle) and Baratheons (the three brothers).  That's not very balanced and will cause even more unrest.

As to whether the question was is Tywin a good Hand, all of that aside... well, I think I've read some convincing theories that he was the subtle instigator of the Defiance of Duskendale and encouraged Lord Darklyn in his ambitions, and Aerys in his resolve to go in person through reverse psychology.  So while he's an able peacetime administrator, he also actively conspired against his King and has shown on multiple occasions that he's willing to blatantly break the law and use violent force to get what he wants, and hope that it gets treated as a fait accompli.  Doesn't sound like a great guy to have working for you - he's too obsessed with House Lannister (and really, himself) being the preeminent Westerosi family to make a good second-in-command.

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9 hours ago, cpg2016 said:

No.  Cersei and Jaime wouldn't change their behavior, as they were planning on continuing their incest even before Tywin was dismissed as Aerys' hand,

Not according to the books. Cersie only decides to cuckold the King a year or so into their marriage after finding out that he was less than subtly banging one of his Estermont cousins. It is at that point, not before, that she decides that she will not give birth to one of his heirs. 

Cersei and Jaime wanted to be together, but there is no evidence that they sleeping together from the start of the marriage to that night at Estermont island. 

9 hours ago, cpg2016 said:

and given their "exploration" earlier in childhood, it's clear that Tywin was willing to turn a blind eye to what his children were doing after Joanna died.

How is that a given?  It was Joanna who suspected it was possible from the not yet even teenagers, not Tywin. 

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Not according to the books. Cersie only decides to cuckold the King a year or so into their marriage after finding out that he was less than subtly banging one of his Estermont cousins. It is at that point, not before, that she decides that she will not give birth to one of his heirs. 

Cersei and Jaime wanted to be together, but there is no evidence that they sleeping together from the start of the marriage to that night at Estermont island. 

 

Nope.  Remember, Cersei arranges for Jaime to be appointed to the Kingsguard specifically so they can continue their incest in Kings Landing.  This is only thwarted because Tywin leaves and takes Cersei with him.  And they sleep together on the morning on Cersei's marriage.  Jaime and Cersei have resumed their affair from at least 285 AC (since Joffrey is born in 286), though Cersei marries Robert in 283.  So for the vast vast majority of his reign they conduct their affair.  It is implied that it is for the entirety of his reign save the first night when he calls her Lyanna.  While we don't know for sure, it seems reasonable to assume that their affair began almost immediately after the marriage, since they were sleeping together just beforehand, and Cersei hates Robert after the first night where he calls her Lyanna.

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How is that a given?  It was Joanna who suspected it was possible from the not yet even teenagers, not Tywin. 

Joanna knew, which is why she separates them.  And she dies in 273 AC.  Jaime gets raised to the Kingsguard in 281 AC, explicitly for the purpose of being nearer to Cersei (or, that's why Cersei and Jaime want it).  Even if we assume that they don't see each other all that much, given all else we know, they are almost certainly sleeping together on and off during this time.  So that's 8 years in which Tywin's kids are engaged in an illicit, incestuous relationship and he doesn't notice.  And given their later lack of discretion, it's kind of difficult to say Tywin is being anything other than willfully blind to this.  Doesn't reflect well on his intelligence if he, their father, isn't seeing this.  Think of all the people in Kings Landing who know, later on, and he has some previous knowledge of it, theoretically!

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Robert may well have been better off personally but House Baratheon would probably have been even worse off than it was. Jon Arryn did many things wrong but I do think that he had Robert and House Baratheon's best interests in mind. With Tywin House Baratheon would essentially have become sidesteeped in favor of House Lannister which could well have led to that Baratheon just...evaporated into mist to be dispersed.

From a Lannnister perspective I would naturally have been more glad to see Tywin take the office, but from a Baratheon perspective Robert did the right thing to first rely on Jon Arryn and then Eddard Stark. The problems with Robert's brothers was that Stannis would probably have managed to cause a major rebellion if given the Handship while with Renly it would just have been switch of colors between red and green at court, with no real difference for Robert or House Baratheon; there would still have been a power-behind-the-throne ready to manouver House Baratheon into obscurity.

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22 hours ago, cpg2016 said:

Nope.  Remember, Cersei arranges for Jaime to be appointed to the Kingsguard specifically so they can continue their incest in Kings Landing.

No, she does so they can be near each other. It is unclear whether she intended to cheat on Rhaegar or Robert. 

22 hours ago, cpg2016 said:

This is only thwarted because Tywin leaves and takes Cersei with him.  And they sleep together on the morning on Cersei's marriage.

And then not again till Joffrey's conception. That is around a year where she was faithful to her husband and did not intend to cuckold him. 

22 hours ago, cpg2016 said:

Jaime and Cersei have resumed their affair from at least 285 AC (since Joffrey is born in 286),

Or 286. We don't know when he was born. But given the marriage was in 284 that is a still a year of Cersei not intending to cuckold the King. Perhaps if Tywin was Hand Robert would have been more discreet and Cersei became pregnant with his true heir before he releationship with Jaime started again. 

22 hours ago, cpg2016 said:

So for the vast vast majority of his reign they conduct their affair.

Yup. I am not disputing that. Robert is incredibly virile, Cersei seems healthy. It was only a matter of time before she got pregnant. 

My argument is that with Tywin as Hand both husband and wife are more discreet leading to a little more time for Cersie being willing to give birth to his son. 

22 hours ago, cpg2016 said:

 It is implied that it is for the entirety of his reign save the first night when he calls her Lyanna.  While we don't know for sure, it seems reasonable to assume that their affair began almost immediately after the marriage, since they were sleeping together just beforehand, and Cersei hates Robert after the first night where he calls her Lyanna.

No, the implication is that is where it started

As soon as Cersei closed her eyes, the king would steal off to console the poor lonely creature. One night she had Jaime follow him, to confirm her suspicions. When her brother returned he asked her if she wanted Robert dead. "No," she had replied, "I want him horned."

He'd already  be horned if they had been sleeping with each other before then. 

22 hours ago, cpg2016 said:

Joanna knew, which is why she separates them.

Joanna suspected it might be a possibility and decided to prevent it. The twins are born in 266, Joanna dies in 273. They would have been incredibly young when she became suspicious.

22 hours ago, cpg2016 said:

 

 And she dies in 273 AC.  Jaime gets raised to the Kingsguard in 281 AC, explicitly for the purpose of being nearer to Cersei (or, that's why Cersei and Jaime want it).

Sure. Just like Loras does. That does not mean sex with the married Queen is a definite. 

22 hours ago, cpg2016 said:

Even if we assume that they don't see each other all that much, given all else we know, they are almost certainly sleeping together on and off during this time.  So that's 8 years in which Tywin's kids are engaged in an illicit, incestuous relationship and he doesn't notice.

Why would he notice? He lives thousands of miles away. Robert does not notice, the vast majority of people who live in the Red Keep do not notice. Cersei is incredibly discreet as to be caught means not only their deaths but their children as well. 

"Did you think I was as blind as Father?" Tyrion rubbed his cheek. 

Tyrion certainly did not think Tywin knew. 

22 hours ago, cpg2016 said:

And given their later lack of discretion,

Wait what? Please give these examples of lack of discretion?

22 hours ago, cpg2016 said:

Think of all the people in Kings Landing who know, later on,

A handful of people knew, one of them who had actual spies in the walls. Being discreet could not stop that. 

22 hours ago, cpg2016 said:

and he has some previous knowledge of it, theoretically!

What previous knowledge? Two  five year olds playing with each other? i'm sorry, but not every parent comes to the same conclusion that Joanna did. 

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No, she does so they can be near each other. It is unclear whether she intended to cheat on Rhaegar or Robert. 

And then not again till Joffrey's conception. That is around a year where she was faithful to her husband and did not intend to cuckold him.

 

Where are you getting this?  Nothing in the text says that they never slept together between her marriage and Estermont.  We know three things: Cersei slept with Jaime on her wedding day (so... not exactly a paragon of faithfulness), she was unhappy in her marriage after the first night, and she slept with Jaime again approximately a year later.  So lets use some common sense here; we have every reason to suspect their affair continued.  Sure, we don't know for certain one way or another, but the preponderance of evidence is highly suggestive.

And Cersei's motive in getting Jaime on the Kingsguard was absolutely to continue sleeping with him.  She convinced him to do it through a night of passionate sex!

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Or 286. We don't know when he was born. But given the marriage was in 284 that is a still a year of Cersei not intending to cuckold the King. Perhaps if Tywin was Hand Robert would have been more discreet and Cersei became pregnant with his true heir before he releationship with Jaime started again. 

Fine, it's possible the Joff was conceived in early 286, it's immaterial.  But again, you have literally no evidence of Cersei's intentions aside from the fact that she despised Robert after their wedding night for calling her Lyanna.  So again - she was unfaithful before.  She was unfaithful after.  And she hated her husband during.  It's absurd that you're clinging to this idea that Cersei was a dutiful wife and then suddenly flips because she sees Robert being unfaithful.  The text is explicit that she was never a consenting partner in sex after their first night.  So... again, Cersei hated her husband and loved her brother.  It makes much more sense that they were sleeping together during that interregnum.

And it's highly doubtful that they would have been more discreet.  I mean... they're having a treasonous, incestuous affair which, if discovered, will get them and their kids killed post haste.  I don't see how the presence of Dad is more of a deterrent than that.  Mind you, they have sex in the Sept of Baelor while Tywin's alive, so... again, I see no reason to believe they'd act any differently.

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Sure. Just like Loras does. That does not mean sex with the married Queen is a definite. 

The difference, of course, is that we know Loras is gay and have no reason to suspect he's been sleeping with his sister.  And in the absence of that kind of evidence, well, I think the heavy burden of proof has to be on anyone claiming incest.

And I'll repeat that Cersei convinces Jaime to join the Kingsguard by sleeping with him.  I feel like that's a pretty straight line connection; "I want you to be 'near' me, and this is why" (commence banging).  All we know of the Tyrell kids is that they've been raised to be loyal to each other and the House, and that they have a healthy and perfectly normal relationship for siblings.

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Wait what? Please give these examples of lack of discretion?

Well, lets see.  They sleep together in Winterfell, a place they don't know with people they don't know, more or less in the open... and get caught.  The sleep together on top of Robert at one point.  They have sex on top of Joffrey's corpse in the Great Sept of Baelor.  I mean... need I go on?  We don't get a ton of examples, but it's not like they aren't aware that Varys has spies in the walls (or, all over the Keep at least).  And at least six characters we know of figure it out: Varys, Littlefinger, Stannis, Renly, Tyrion, and Jon Arryn.  That's a pretty huge number, given how few people have the kind of access to them to even have the means to determine it.  And for what its worth, it's more than possible that others (servants, etc) know and just aren't speaking up/we don't have a POV or opinion from them.  Even Stannis was afraid to say anything; you think a washerwoman is going to approach the King?  And who else does she tell?  Everyone she can tell who matters aside from Robert himself is already in the know.  For all we know that is how Renly or Stannis or whoever initially becomes suspicious.

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What previous knowledge? Two  five year olds playing with each other? i'm sorry, but not every parent comes to the same conclusion that Joanna did. 

They were likely 6 or 7, but doesn't matter.  A servant found them exploring each other sexually (one of many times they did so, worth noting) and told Joanna.  You are right, she didn't tell Tywin, but nevertheless... it wasn't Joanna drawing a conclusion.  It was her being told a fact.  The strong implication, especially in light of their later incest, is that they were doing something highly illicit and well beyond the norms of Westerosi society.

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As soon as Cersei closed her eyes, the king would steal off to console the poor lonely creature. One night she had Jaime follow him, to confirm her suspicions. When her brother returned he asked her if she wanted Robert dead. "No," she had replied, "I want him horned."

He'd already  be horned if they had been sleeping with each other before then. 


 

 

He's already been cuckolded... she slept with Jaime on the morning of their wedding!  You are really splitting hairs if you argue that doesn't count.  I just think it takes an amazing amount of suspension of disbelief that Cersei, an hugely selfish and self serving character, thought that sex on her wedding day wasn't "horning" her husband and that in light of that fact pattern, she would have been faithful otherwise.
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