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Tywin Lannister Plan B


devilish

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There are some key events that need to be taken in consideration prior to the sacking of KL. The timeline is also important as it dictates what and why certain things happened.

277 AC - The Defiance of Duskendale

279 AC – Elia and Rhaegar were betrothed

281 AC – Resignation of Tywin from HODK

281 AC – Tourney of Harrenhal

282 AC – Robert’s rebellion started

283 AC – Battle of the Trident

283 AC – Sacking of KL.

The Defiance of Duskendale is quite significant for 2 main reasons.

a-            It was the only time where Tywin publically endorsed Rhaegar as an option to Aerys.

b-            It was the event that fasttracked Aerys’s descend to madness. After Duskendale Aerys’s paranioa heightened. He mistrusted everyone and he refused to have people he couldn’t trust to walk around him with blades

Please note that Tywin’s endorsement occurred before Rhaegar’s betrothal to Elia Martell. The second point is very important but I will deal with it later.

The Tourney of Harrenhal was meant by Rhaegar to rally as many the Lords against his father. That coup failed miserably because Aerys  knew about Rhaegar’s plan beforehand and he made sure he was present to it. The rest is known history. Rhaegar kidnapped Lyanna, Brandon went to KL etc etc etc.

We know how Aerys reacted to rebellion. He threatened the Martells with Elia if they don’t commit their army and the Martells responded to that by committing a 10k army, which was around ¼ of Rhaegar’s army at the Trident. We also know how Tywin reacted to the rebellion. He stayed out of it until after the battle of the trident. Same thing can be said about Walder Frey whose son is married to Tywin’s sister.

The previous paragraph suggests that Walder and Tywin’s actions were somehow connected. This connection could explain two things

a-            Why Hoster wasn’t able to punish Walder for not committing his troops to the cause. We know that Hoster was pretty pissed off with the Lord of the Crossing which suggest that he would have made him bleed if he could.

b-            Why the young wolf was able to take the Lannisters off guard which lead to Jamie’s capture. An army isn’t very easy to hide especially in a land of rivers and plains. The young wolf would have never been able to surprise the lion in the way he did if the lion wasn’t 100% confident that the wolf would not be able to cross the twins so easily.

However lets return to the subject. One question still remains though. The reason why Aerys didn’t threatened Tywin in the same way he did with the Martells. Aerys had Jamie under his custody so he could have easily threatened Tywin in the same way with Doran

In isolation that point seem trivial. However that is just 1 of 3 odd behaviours done by Aerys. The last Targeryan king would

a-            allow Jamie (Ie the son of a Warden who remained neutral throughout the war) to remain very close to him, with a sword in hand. At times he was the only KG around him

b-            He would open the gates wide to Tywin’s 12k army which lead to the KL’s massacre

Which makes you wonder why on earth would Aerys do that? Why would someone who suffered from such paranoia and fear of blades trust the son of a Warden who stayed neutral throughout the entire war and had resigned from HODK? Why would Tywin allow his boy to stay in KL despite knowing how instable and how eager Aerys was to humiliate him?

Lets forget about that and let’s focus on the battle of the trident especially the numbers, and the terrian. Rhaegar’s army was 40k strong. Robert’s could rely on less men but unlike Rhaegar’s men most were battle hardened. Robert was also fighting on home turf What about the main protagonists of the war? Robert was described by Ned as a force of nature, a man with so much charisma that his enemies would fight against him in the morning and share a pint with him in the evening. Rhaegar on the other hand was quiet, reserved and bookish person.

We can assume that if Rhaegar won then the number of casualties in his army would still be devastating. Its not so ridiculous to say that half that army would have ended up either dead or injured. As said the rebels were fighting on home soil. That means that unlike Rhaegar they might have survived a defeat. The defeated army would hide behind walls were they can recover. Anyway, the Targ royalists would probably end up with a 20k army which is scattered besieging 2-3 powerful castles and taking care of the wounded. Even if Robert dies the rebels could still rely on Jon Arryn or Ned Stark for guidance. After all, most of the rebel army were Ned’s/Jon’s troops not Robert’s

Tywin sacked KL with an army of 12k. We know that the Westerlands can raise twice the amount of that so its not ridiculous to say that Tywin could raise a 20k army at a moment’s notice. He could probably rely on another 4k from the Freys, which means that Tywin could march in the Riverlands with 24k. That army could easily smash Rhaegar;s depleted and scattered force and bring the treacherous son back to KL in chains.

Aerys would have used that opportunity to get rid of his treacherous son and appoint Viserys as his heir. Of course, he would owe Tywin a great deal. With the Lannister+Tyrells army being the only obstacle between an angry/grieving Dorne, North, Vale and Riverlands and the king’s neck, then its within Aerys interest to pay his debts this time round. I can see Tywin returning as HODK, Viserys marrying Cersei, Jamie being released from KG and The Freys being given the Riverlands. As HODK in a land of opportunity (so many castles to give away from the Stormlands right to Riverrun) I sympathise Tywin’s newly found art of persuasion to be enough for Kevan to be granted Storm’s end, especially if either Lancel or Jamie agree to marry Margaery. 

Unfortunately for the old lion, Robert won and his charisma was enough to convince Rhaegar’s men to bend the knee boosting his army enough for Tywin not to be 100% sure he can beat it. Under such circumstances, Tywin had to make sure that he is at the winner’s side + that every trace of a possible pact between him and Aerys is destroyed before Robert could find out. Hence why Tywin was so brutal in KL.

What do you think?

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I also think Tywin was keeping an eye on Stannis and Storm's End. If Stannis would have given up like a lot of untested second sons his age would have and the Reach takes Storm's End then they could meet up with Rhaegar at the Trident. If that happens there is a very good chance the Royalist would win the Battle of the Trident with the Reach troops giving them an even greater advantage in numbers. Which makes you think why didn't Rhaegar or Aerys tell the Tyrells and company to forget about Storm's End and march to the Trident so they all could take out the rebel leaders once and for all? 

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43 minutes ago, Ralphis Baratheon said:

I also think Tywin was keeping an eye on Stannis and Storm's End. If Stannis would have given up like a lot of untested second sons his age would have and the Reach takes Storm's End then they could meet up with Rhaegar at the Trident. If that happens there is a very good chance the Royalist would win the Battle of the Trident with the Reach troops giving them an even greater advantage in numbers. Which makes you think why didn't Rhaegar or Aerys tell the Tyrells and company to forget about Storm's End and march to the Trident so they all could take out the rebel leaders once and for all? 

I have to disagree. Robert left Storm's end with a skeleton army. Mace could have easily besieged it without the need of committing so many troops to that cause.

So why didn't Mace took most of his army to the Trident? Is he stupid? Mace isn't the very bright but we know two things about the man

A- He loves his share of glory and pomp. We've seen him how eager he was to whore his own daughter just to see her a queen
B- He rates Randyll Tarly highly.

Randyll is one of the best generals in Westeros and the only man who was able to beat Robert in battle. A man of such experience was needed at the trident as much as most of the Tyrell 60k army. Surely, Randyll would have loved to join the war too and must have told Mace that Storm's end hold little military value at that point and can be besieged with a token army of few thousand men

If you ask me, Mace was quite eager towards the fight at first but his interest waned as Aerys kept snubbing him in terms of giving him a role in the small council. Qarlton Chelsted was a nobody and yet he was preferred as HOTK to a man who could easily raise a 50k army. He might have sensed that something is wrong with the fact that Tywin not committing any troops to the cause and with Aerys being happy with it. Were the two brewing something behind everyone's back? Under such circumstances, Mace used the same 'wait and see' attitude the Tyrells-Renly's forces used during the war of 5 kings. Let the war unfold itself and only bully yourself in when everyone is exhausted and greatly weakened by it. Unfortunately for him and in similar terms to Tywin, he underestimated Robert's charisma who could swiftly turn enemies into friends.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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4 minutes ago, devilish said:

I have to disagree. Robert left Storm's end with a skeleton army. Mace could have easily besieged it without the need of committing so many troops to that cause.

So why didn't Mace took most of his army to the Trident? Is he stupid? Mace isn't the very bright but we know two things about the man

A- He loves his share of glory and pomp. We've seen him how eager he was to whore his own daughter just to see her a queen
B- He rates Randyll Tarly highly.

Randyll is one of the best generals in Westeros and the only man who was able to beat Robert in battle. A man of such experience was needed at the trident as much as most of the Tyrell 60k army. Surely, Randyll would have loved to join the war too and must have told Mace that Storm's end hold little military value at that point and can be besieged with a token army of few thousand men

If you ask me, Mace was quite eager towards the fight at first but his interest waned as Aerys kept snubbing him in terms of giving him a role in the small council. Qarlton Chelsted was a nobody and yet he was preferred as HODK to a man who could easily raise a 50k army. He might have sensed that something is wrong with the fact that Tywin not committing any troops to the cause and with Aerys being happy with it. Were the two brewing something behind everyone's back? Under such circumstances, Mace used the same 'wait and see' attitude the Tyrells-Renly's forces used during the war of 5 kings. Let the war unfold itself and only bully yourself in when everyone is exhausted and greatly weakened by it. Unfortunately for him and in similar terms to Tywin, he underestimated Robert's charisma who could swiftly turn enemies into friends.

 

 

I don't understand what are you disagreeing with? That Tywin didn't care about what was happening at Storm's End? because that was a pretty huge part of the war.

 

Mace declared for Renly at the very start of the war and gave him a huge part of the Reach's army and his daughter. An army that was planning on fighting Stannis then going straight to King's Landing after they defeated him. He really didn't "wait and see" during the WOTFK at all it's almost the opposite. 

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22 minutes ago, devilish said:

I have to disagree. Robert left Storm's end with a skeleton army. Mace could have easily besieged it without the need of committing so many troops to that cause.

So why didn't Mace took most of his army to the Trident? Is he stupid? Mace isn't the very bright but we know two things about the man

A- He loves his share of glory and pomp. We've seen him how eager he was to whore his own daughter just to see her a queen
B- He rates Randyll Tarly highly.

Randyll is one of the best generals in Westeros and the only man who was able to beat Robert in battle. A man of such experience was needed at the trident as much as most of the Tyrell 60k army. Surely, Randyll would have loved to join the war too and must have told Mace that Storm's end hold little military value at that point and can be besieged with a token army of few thousand men

If you ask me, Mace was quite eager towards the fight at first but his interest waned as Aerys kept snubbing him in terms of giving him a role in the small council. Qarlton Chelsted was a nobody and yet he was preferred as HODK to a man who could easily raise a 50k army. He might have sensed that something is wrong with the fact that Tywin not committing any troops to the cause and with Aerys being happy with it. Were the two brewing something behind everyone's back? Under such circumstances, Mace used the same 'wait and see' attitude the Tyrells-Renly's forces used during the war of 5 kings. Let the war unfold itself and only bully yourself in when everyone is exhausted and greatly weakened by it. Unfortunately for him and in similar terms to Tywin, he underestimated Robert's charisma who could swiftly turn enemies into friends.

We have no idea why Mace stayed at SE. If Aerys commanded him to do it, he'd be stupid not to given how much burning Aerys liked to do

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1 hour ago, Ralphis Baratheon said:

I don't understand what are you disagreeing with? That Tywin didn't care about what was happening at Storm's End? because that was a pretty huge part of the war.

 

Mace declared for Renly at the very start of the war and gave him a huge part of the Reach's army and his daughter. An army that was planning on fighting Stannis then going straight to King's Landing after they defeated him. He really didn't "wait and see" during the WOTFK at all it's almost the opposite. 

I love the Tyrells. I think the Reach is the biggest powerhouse in Westeros and I see the Tyrells as smarter then the Lannisters in many ways. However at that stage of the war it was pretty evident that Mace's heart was not in the war. Mace sat out the battle of the trident and kept most of his troops out of it to besiege what? An empty fortress? That's not what a loyal servant to the crown would do, especially with a 40k-50k horde at his back

Also I am aware of the Reach's weaknesses. They are basically the Riverlands on steroids ie they have more troops but they have similar weaknesses (ie their source of wealth can easily be burned, they share a lot of borders etc). Lord Mace would be mad to confront Robert's wounded but battlehardened army on the Reach's fertile soil especially since they would also have to contend with the Greyjoys and a panicky Westerlands army who were eager to burn KL up to hide any trace of a possible deal with the Targs. Crops and war don't mix very well + the king hardly made it worth its while didn't he? He preferred a relatively unknown as HOTK to someone who can lead a 50k army

Regarding the war of 5 kings, Stannis was worthless in the great scheme of things. His army was small and most houses had either stayed neutral or bent the knee to either Robb, Joffrey or Renly. Renly stayed in the Stormlands because he wanted the wolf and the lion to skin each other alive. Once one kill the other the Tyrell-Baratheon force could wipe the weakened victor out. Minimum effort to maximum benefit. That is the Tyrell way.

 

 

 

 

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1 hour ago, devilish said:

I have to disagree. Robert left Storm's end with a skeleton army. Mace could have easily besieged it without the need of committing so many troops to that cause.

We don't know how many troops Mace had and we don't know the orders given to him. 

1 hour ago, devilish said:

So why didn't Mace took most of his army to the Trident? Is he stupid? Mace isn't the very bright but we know two things about the man

Again, we have POV's from the two living Kingsguard members and neither indicate that Mace was disobeying orders. In fact Rhaegar seems quietly confident when talking to Jaime that he will be victorious on the Trident. 

1 hour ago, devilish said:

 

Randyll is one of the best generals in Westeros

Sure, he is now. Randyll's children are similar age to Ned's, himself a teenager during the war. It may well be that Randyll's reputation was not yet fully formed. Twenty years of being the only man to have beat Robert has probably seen his reputation skyrocket. 

1 hour ago, devilish said:

 

and the only man who was able to beat Robert in battle. A man of such experience was needed at the trident as much as most of the Tyrell 60k army. Surely, Randyll would have loved to join the war too and must have told Mace that Storm's end hold little military value at that point and can be besieged with a token army of few thousand men

Actually Storm's End does hold military value. GRRM goes over this in an SSM http://www.westeros.org/Citadel/SSM/Entry/The_Siege_of_Storms_End

TLDR: Storm's End was Robert's capital and held his two heirs. Much like Winterfell did in the War of the Five Kings, and we see what effect that has on Robb's side and how some change sides as a result. 

1 hour ago, devilish said:

If you ask me, Mace was quite eager towards the fight at first but his interest waned as Aerys kept snubbing him in terms of giving him a role in the small council. 

is this based on anything in the books?

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8 minutes ago, Bernie Mac said:

We don't know how many troops Mace had and we don't know the orders given to him. 

Again, we have POV's from the two living Kingsguard members and neither indicate that Mace was disobeying orders. In fact Rhaegar seems quietly confident when talking to Jaime that he will be victorious on the Trident. 

Sure, he is now. Randyll's children are similar age to Ned's, himself a teenager during the war. It may well be that Randyll's reputation was not yet fully formed. Twenty years of being the only man to have beat Robert has probably seen his reputation skyrocket. 

Actually Storm's End does hold military value. GRRM goes over this in an SSM http://www.westeros.org/Citadel/SSM/Entry/The_Siege_of_Storms_End

TLDR: Storm's End was Robert's capital and held his two heirs. Much like Winterfell did in the War of the Five Kings, and we see what effect that has on Robb's side and how some change sides as a result. 

is this based on anything in the books?

a- We can make an educated guess by having a look to what Mace fielded during the WO5K

b- I never said that he disobeyed orders. The crown demanded Mace to call the banners and attack the enemy and that what he did. Whether that was the most effective way to do things, well, we, all know the answer to that

c- I never said otherwise. It was the Baratheon ancestral home after all. However don't you think that that army is better off fighting at the Trident instead?  Don't you think that Randyll knew that?

d- There's a big difference between Robb's rebellion and Robert's rebellion. In the former war, the leader committed most of the troops. In the latter, Robert relied heavily on troops from the Vale, the Riverlands and the North as half of his bannermen rebelled against him. The former are more likely to be affected if their own home is invaded than the latter. An Umber, a Blackwood or a Royce wouldn't give a toss if Storm's end is sacked and Stannis is put to the sword. They probably don't know that Stannis even exist.

e- Its based on common sense. Someone with a big army at his back and with a love for glory would make sure that he's part of the biggest battle (and possible victory) fought in his lifetime.

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The Battle of the Trident could have gone either way.  That Rhaegar allowed himself to be drawn into single combat was very stupid.  Gallant and brave for sure but stupid.  I do not have admiration for such foolishness when so many depended on his decisions.  

Tywin and Walder were doing the smart thing.  It lacked honor but it was the practical thing to do.  They were both pulled into this war by Jon Arryn.  I think both men would rather Jon Arryn hand over Eddard and Robert instead of going to war over something insignificant.   Walder got away with it because the Freys are a powerful house while Goodbrook was not.  It would take a lot of blood shed before Hoster Tully can punish Walder Frey.  No one could really prove that Walder was sitting on the fence.  He may have been really late.

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12 minutes ago, devilish said:

a- We can make an educated guess by having a look to what Mace fielded during the WO5K

The War of the Five Kings happened towards the end of one of the longest summers in history, Robert's Rebellion during winter. Less food means less bodies. 

Renly was ad ored by not only the Tyrells but by Tarly, Oakheart and Rowan. Seems they may have been willing to send more men and put themselves at jeopardy. 

Mace himself was a young man, he may not have built up the same relations that he had as a middle aged Lord, and he was fighting to make his daughter a Queen. There would be less incentive for him to send as many men. 

We also know that the war had gone on for a year, and that there have been battles that we have never been told about. The Reach army we see in TWOTFK's is at the start of the conflict and has not seen a single battle. 

I don't know how many men were sent, but there are quite a lot of variables as to why it could have well been a smaller amount. Of course we know from the author that there was also Reach soldiers with Rhaegar on the Trident. 

12 minutes ago, devilish said:

b- I never said that he disobeyed orders. The crown demanded Mace to call the banners and attack the enemy and that what he did. Whether that was the most effective way to do things, well, we, all know the answer to that

Sure. But I'm not sure that is on Mace. 

12 minutes ago, devilish said:

c- I never said otherwise. It was the Baratheon ancestral home after all. However don't you think that that army is better off fighting at the Trident instead?  Don't you think that Randyll knew that?

You called it as having little military value. I disagreed and so does the author. 

Tarly is a fantastic soldier, he is not in apositon to be telling Aerys or Rhaegar what they should be doing with their resources. I doubt he was consulted. 

12 minutes ago, devilish said:

d- There's a big difference between Robb's rebellion and Robert's rebellion. In the former war, the leader committed most of the troops. In the latter, Robert relied heavily on troops from the Vale, the Riverlands and the North as half of his bannermen rebelled against him. The former are more likely to be affected if their own home is invaded than the latter. An Umber, a Blackwood or a Royce wouldn't give a toss if Storm's end is sacked and Stannis is put to the sword. They probably don't know that Stannis even exist.

Argue with GRRM, his fictional universe, not mine. He gives the reason why it was important. 

12 minutes ago, devilish said:

e- Its based on common sense. Someone with a big army at his back and with a love for glory would make sure that he's part of the biggest battle (and possible victory) fought in his lifetime.

You are basing this on hindsight. It is more than possible that had both Robert and Rhaegar lived, the war continued and the battle of the Trident not been the decisive battle that it was. 

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15 hours ago, Bernie Mac said:

The War of the Five Kings happened towards the end of one of the longest summers in history, Robert's Rebellion during winter. Less food means less bodies. 

Renly was ad ored by not only the Tyrells but by Tarly, Oakheart and Rowan. Seems they may have been willing to send more men and put themselves at jeopardy. 

Mace himself was a young man, he may not have built up the same relations that he had as a middle aged Lord, and he was fighting to make his daughter a Queen. There would be less incentive for him to send as many men. 

We also know that the war had gone on for a year, and that there have been battles that we have never been told about. The Reach army we see in TWOTFK's is at the start of the conflict and has not seen a single battle. 

I don't know how many men were sent, but there are quite a lot of variables as to why it could have well been a smaller amount. Of course we know from the author that there was also Reach soldiers with Rhaegar on the Trident. 

Sure. But I'm not sure that is on Mace. 

You called it as having little military value. I disagreed and so does the author. 

Tarly is a fantastic soldier, he is not in apositon to be telling Aerys or Rhaegar what they should be doing with their resources. I doubt he was consulted. 

Argue with GRRM, his fictional universe, not mine. He gives the reason why it was important. 

You are basing this on hindsight. It is more than possible that had both Robert and Rhaegar lived, the war continued and the battle of the Trident not been the decisive battle that it was. 

A- The Reach had never had issues about food. Its Westeros bread basket. There's no difference in terms of supply lines between besieging the Stormlands and participating in the battle of the trident. Actually a battle takes less time then a siege which makes it easier in terms of logistics and feeding an army. Mace didn't send the bulk of his army (+ the Great Randyll Tarly) to the trident because he didn't want to.

B- Renly had Mace. He's close to Randyll. Mace mother is a Redywne and his wife a Hightower which gives him a very good grip on power over the Reach. The Tyrell-Baratheon's strategy was smart. Let the wolf and the lion skin each other alive and then move in to collect the spoils. That ensured sure victory. I mean who would have thought that Stannis would be well versed in black magic? He's a warrior and a bore not frigging Gandalf.

C- There are many ways how to avoid war in a feudal system. Some might remain neutral and hope that the king didn't notice, others might decide to send as little support as possible while others might spend most of the war guarding a strategic fortress without ever get their hands dirty. The Tyrells couldn't afford the former two decisions as they were rival families who shared an equal claim to the Reach who would pounce to garner the king's favour. Therefore they chose the latter. Mace rarely commit troops to actual war unless he gets something tangible + he's ensured sure victory

D- Storm's end had military value but the war was being fought elsewhere. As said, unlike the young wolf whose army was mainly made up of Northerners, Robert relied mostly on 'foreigners' (people from the Riverlands, the Vale and the North). These people couldn't give a toss if Storm's end was burnt down and by the looks of it (ie not praising Stannis and sending Ned to KL first instead to Storm's end) so did Robert

E- Tarly hold great respect around peers. If some knight from the Stormland's can garner so much respect then imagine what the lead general of the loyalists biggest army would have. After all, Randyll was the only man to inflict a defeat on Robert

F- I never said that its irrelevant. Its surely important for Robert's succession to the crown. Would you want a king that left his house burn to the ground? I wouldnt'. What I said is that it wasn't that important in the course of battle. Most of Robert's men came from the Vale, the Riverlands and the North. Their families were sheltered in Winterfell, the Dreadfort, Riverrun or the Rune Stone not in the Stormlands.

G- Not really. If Rhaegar's army was boosted by another 40k + a great general to guide them then it makes sense to say that it would have probably won

 

 

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No matter,” Lord Tywin said. “Frey only takes the field when the scent of victory is in the air, and all he smells now is ruin.

Late again,” Catelyn murmured when she heard. It was the Trident all over, damn the man. Her brother Edmure had called the banners; by rights, Lord Frey should have gone to join the Tully host at Riverrun, yet here he sat. “Four thousand men,” Robb repeated, more perplexed than angry. “Lord Frey cannot hope to fight the Lannisters by himself. Surely, he means to join his power to ours.” “Does he?” Catelyn asked. She had ridden forward to join Robb and Robett Glover, his companion of the day. The vanguard spread out behind them, a slow-moving forest of lances and banners and spears. “I wonder. Expect nothing of Walder Frey, and you will never be surprised.” “He’s your father’s bannerman.” “Some men take their oaths more seriously than others, Robb. And Lord Walder was always friendlier with Casterly Rock than my father would have liked. One of his sons is wed to Tywin Lannister’s sister. That means little of itself, to be sure. Lord Walder has sired a great many children over the years, and they must needs marry someone. Still …” “Do you think he means to betray us to the Lannisters, my lady?” Robett Glover asked gravely. Catelyn sighed. “If truth be told, I doubt even Lord Frey knows what Lord Frey intends to do. He has an old man’s caution and a young man’s ambition, and has never lacked for cunning.”

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The war had raged for close to a year. Lords great and small had flocked to Robert's banners; others had remained loyal to Targaryen. The mighty Lannisters of Casterly Rock, the Wardens of the West, had remained aloof from the struggle, ignoring calls to arms from both rebels and royalists. Aerys Targaryen must have thought that his gods had answered his prayers when Lord Tywin Lannister appeared before the gates of King's Landing with an army twelve thousand strong, professing loyalty. So the mad king had ordered his last mad act. He had opened his city to the lions at the gate.

 

Pycelle's breathing was rapid and shallow. "All I did, I did for House Lannister." A sheen of sweat covered the broad dome of the old man's brow, and wisps of white hair clung to his wrinkled skin. "Always . . . for years . . . your lord father, ask him, I was ever his true servant . . . 'twas I who bid Aerysopen his gates . . ."

 

My Sworn Brothers were all away, you see, but Aerys liked to keep me close. I was my father's son, so he did not trust me. He wanted me where Varys could watch me, day and night. So I heard it all." He remembered how Rossart's eyes would shine when he unrolled his maps to show where the substance must be placed. Garigus and Belis were the same. "Rhaegar met Robert on the Trident, and you know what happened there. When the word reached court, Aerys packed the queen off to Dragonstone with Prince Viserys. Princess Elia would have gone as well, but he forbade it. Somehow he had gotten it in his head that Prince Lewyn must have betrayed Rhaegar on the Trident, but he thought he could keep Dorne loyal so long as he kept Elia and Aegon by his side. The traitors want my city, I heard him tell Rossart, but I'll give them naught but ashes. Let Robert be king over charred bones and cooked meat. The Targaryens never bury their dead, they burn them. Aerys meant to have the greatest funeral pyre of them all. Though if truth be told, I do not believe he truly expected to die. Like Aerion Brightfire before him, Aerys thought the fire would transform him . . . that he would rise again, reborn as a dragon, and turn all his enemies to ash.

"Ned Stark was racing south with Robert's van, but my father's forces reached the city first. Pycelle convinced the king that his Warden of the West had come to defend him, so he opened the gates. The one time he should have heeded Varys, and he ignored him. My father had held back from the war, brooding on all the wrongs Aerys had done him and determined that House Lannister should be on the winning side. The Trident decided him.

"It fell to me to hold the Red Keep, but I knew we were lost. I sent to Aerys asking his leave to make terms. My man came back with a royal command. 'Bring me your father's head, if you are no traitor.' Aerys would have no yielding. Lord Rossart was with him, my messenger said. I knew what that meant.

 

Does not sound that there is any hidden pact at all just plain old staying out of it from both Frey and Lannister

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A- The Reach had never had issues about food.

Never? I would point out that we don't know enough about the history of Westeros to make such a bold statement but I could also point out that during the Sworn Sword, which takes place in the Reach, there was indeed issues with food. 

281 was the Year of the False Spring. Everyone thought that the winter was over only for it to return during the war. This is going to have a huge impact on the food reserves for all the kingdoms including the Reach.  Summer starts during the war and the Reach is going to prioritise farmers over soldiers as they, as you said, the bread basket of Westeros.  

The Reach army we see with Renly has the benefit of the last 10 years being summer. Tyrion claims he has lived through eight or nine winters. Which means there would have been at least three during the 10 years before Robert's Rebellion. 

The time of the year and which part of the season plays huge roles in how many soldiers can be raised. There are very clear and obvious reasons why the force raised by Renly during the longest summer in centuries is not the same as a host raised in 282. 

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Mace didn't send the bulk of his army (+ the Great Randyll Tarly) to the trident because he didn't want to.

Evidence for this?

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D- Storm's end had military value but the war was being fought elsewhere. 

I am sorry, I quoted GRRM on the importance of Storm's End. Now you can disagree with him a ll you want, but his characters in the world he created are likely going to think what he wants them to think. 

GRRM thinks Storm's End was important. In this fanfiction story you are trying to create it is not.

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E- Tarly hold great respect around peers.

In 283? Prove it?

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G- Not really. If Rhaegar's army was boosted by another 40k + a great general to guide them then it makes sense to say that it would have probably won

 

Well then, why did Rhaegar or Aerys not command the Reach to come and help them?  Neither Barristan or Jaime, comment that the Reach refused to help. 

There is zero indication that the Reach refused to help. None at all. I get that there has been far too long since the last book, but this theory is based on nothing from the books beyond that Tywin is a sneaky bastard and Mace is ambitious. 

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