My take on the Tower of Joy

[kissdbyfire]

55 minutes ago, John Suburbs said:

Yeah, I've read that before and it's rather blithe about the times. For instance, it says Summerhall happened a month or two after Robert left the Vale. But before he leaves the Vale, Robert travels some 80 leagues and takes Gulltown. Then he sails to SE and raises his banners, which I would think would be mostly assembled by the time he gets there. Now, say, a month-and-a-half later, he's marched the 80 leagues to Summerhall, then another 80 or so to Ashford, then scattered and on the run for some 200+ leagues to Stony Sept and then another 80-odd leagues to Riverrun. That's a helluva lot of marching and fighting in less than three months time.

Same with Ned: overland some 100 leagues through mountainous terrain to the Bite, not knowing if he can trust the help of any castles or keeps he passes. Then a quick stopover on Sisterton (probably not fathering a child at this point), and up the White Knife to Winterfell -- about 300 leagues, mostly by boat. Since it takes longer to gather forces from the north, I would think he has to wait a few weeks to get a decent army together, but gathering more as he heads south. Then it's at least 400 leagues to the Twins and another 100 or so to Riverrun, then a 160-league round trip to and from Stony Sept.

A league is three miles, so that puts Robert's total trek at more than 1500 miles, not including the sea journey to Storm's End. Ned's journey is even more arduous -- 3000 miles, although no fighting until Stony Sept. So if we give this whole time period 11 weeks, that puts Robert's daily average distance at just under 20 miles per day, while Ned's is close to 40. In my book, that's just barely keeping within the bounds of reality.

 

But again, check the World Book and tell me it doesn't imply that Ashford was after the BotB, after the double wedding, sometime before the Trident.

 

No, not in American English, which is what Martin writes in. Merriam-Webster defines it as "almost or nearly."

When talking about time, distance, weight or any other linear or finite measurement "close to" is never taken to mean "more than" or "over." Close to a year; close to a mile; close to a hundred pounds. 

"Close to" is only ambiguous in this way when talking about relative locations. "The arrow hit close to the bulls eye" could mean it hit either low or high. "They were standing close to one another," might be accurate in an empty hall, but the same distance would be considered rather far in a crowded elevator.

The siege continued for an indeterminate time after the sack, but I think it's safe to assume that it would not have begun until several months after Arryn raised his banners -- probably some weeks after Ashford, which would have been a good two or three months into the war. So unless Ned needed to nurse his army for a good long time before heading to lift the siege (which he wouldn't have done, since time was of the essence), I think there is one of three possibilities here:

Either Ned misspoke in his PoV and meant to say more than a year, not close to a year;

The survivors of the siege are exaggerating its duration due to their privation;

GRRM goofed

I will have a look. I haven't been able to read the whole book yet...

100% agree on "close to", but I've seen many here interpret it as either more or less than a year. 

I think the siege did last close to a year...

ACoK, Prologue

“You could bring him no hope?”
“Only the false sort, and I’d not do that,” Davos said. “He had the truth from me.”
Maester Cressen remembered the day Davos had been knighted, after the siege of Storm’s End. Lord Stannis and a small garrison had held the castle for close to a year, against the great host of the Lords Tyrell and Redwyne. Even the sea was closed against them, watched day and night by Redwyne galleys flying the burgundy banners of the Arbor. Within Storm’s End, the horses had long since been eaten, the dogs and cats were gone, and the garrison was down to roots and rats. Then came a night when the moon was new and black clouds hid the stars. Cloaked in that darkness, Davos the smuggler had dared the Redwyne cordon and the rocks of ShipbreakerBay alike. His little ship had a black hull, black sails, black oars, and a hold crammed with onions and salt fish. Little enough, yet it had kept the garrison alive long enough for Eddard Stark to reach Storm’s End and break the siege.”

 

 

[PrettyPig]

Re: the timing of Ashford and all that, I'll just repost something that I've said here before:

You can incorporate some other namedays into the mix to get an idea of when things happened. (Look at RT's age/birthday calculations via the character Wikis for this, with which I agree for the most part.)

For instance, Sam Tarly's nameday occurs rather early in the year - like February-ish - and he was born in 283.   So, unless you believe Sam is also not who he claims to be, or that Randyll Tarly is not his father, you can work backwards and figure out that the Battle of Ashford could not have begun prior to May or so in 282, or Randyll Tarly would not have been present to father his own son.

Likewise, move on to Margaery Tyrell.    She is 14 when Renly shows Ned her picture in 298 after Ned arrives in KL, and 15 when Cat meets her at Bitterbridge in mid-299, and 16 when she comes to KL to marry Joffrey in late 299.   (I worked out her nameday being late Aug-Sept or so, somewhere in Q3 of the year.)     Nutshell, Margaery is born in the latter part of 283, so again - unless you entertain the idea that Alerie Tyrell was a very bad girl or that Mace can be in two places at once, you can determine that the Siege of Storm's End could not have begun until ~November 282 .  

Ergo, the Battle of Ashford and the start of Siege of Storm's End took place between May and November of 282, or thereabouts. In my mind, Randyll Tarly fathered Sam prior to marching off to war, and then after the victory at Ashford, Mace Tyrell returned to Highgarden to gather more forces for the upcoming Siege, and conceived his daughter during this time.      As I believe the BotB took place around the first day of the new year 283 (? I think that's in the text), this means the Battle of Ashford would have taken place significantly before. 

 Also, not a birth, but another reference point - Barbrey Dustin says she was married "not half a year" when Jon Arryn raised his banners and Robert/Ned marched.   Barbrey also says that her father wanted to try to marry her to Ned after the announcement of Brandon/Cat's engagement , but then "Catelyn Tully got that one too" and he hastily married her to Lord Dustin instead.      The engagement announcement was what led Littlefinger to challenge Brandon to the duel, which wasn't that long before Brandon 'heard about Lyanna' and rode off to his death. 

From this, along with the Reach kids' namedays, I deduce that the 'abduction' and deaths of the Starks took place fairly early in 282, and all the events thereafter - JA calling banners, Ned returning to Winterfell, early skirmishes, fighting in Gulltown, etc - all unfolded over the next 4-5 months until the Battle of Ashford was fought most likely sometime during the summer.    After this victory, the Siege would have thus begun nearer to the end of 282, which is consistent with both Davos' and Stannis' recollections of timing of the lifting of the siege as well.      As Davos is rowing Melisandre to birth her shadowbaby, he thinks about it having been "16 years" since he sailed into Storm's End under cover of darkness - as it is latter 299, that translates to latter 283 for the lifting of the Siege.    Likewise, Stannis was tasked by Robert with taking Dragonstone, which he obviously couldn't have started until Ned lifted the Siege, right?   After his release, it took a year to build the fleet.    The fleet was completed and just about to set sail when baby Dany and Viserys fled Dragonstone with Willem Darry - meaning, logically, that this occurs after Dany's birth during that "great summer storm" of 284.   So, late 284 for ship launch, most likely, and walking back one year for the build you again get late 283 for the lifting of the Siege.

Overall,  IMO the full-fledged "war" - from JA's banners to the Sack - was about one year...I would guess early Q3 282 to late Q2 283.     The Siege, which began a few months later, also lasted just shy of a year...say late Q3/early Q4 282 to Q3 283.    In total, the Rebellion from beginning to end would have been about ~15 months.   Ned Stark's personal involvement, however, was probably more like a year and a half -   5-6 months prior to marrying Catelyn and then about a year after.

[Ygrain]

4 hours ago, 40 Thousand Skeletons said:

My assumption is that Ashara specifically came to meet Brandon and that she didn't make her presence in KL known to everyone, but rather approached only Varys and had him sneak her into the black cells to see Brandon. She may have even snuck into KL from the outside via Varys.

And why would Varys do it for her?

Besides, with Aerys' paranoia currently peaking, it would be extremely dangerous to rely on the guy who was supllying Aerys with the information on "traitors". I understand that true love is supposed to be blind to danger but what purpose would have visit serve? She wouldn't be able to break Brandon out, and to sneak in just to say him goodbye and/or give him one last fuck seems totally stupid (not to mention that rat-infested prison cells smelling of urine and feces are not exactly a love nest).

4 hours ago, 40 Thousand Skeletons said:

But going a bit further, I have always wondered if Brandon and Ashara were somehow in communication prior to Brandon arriving in KL,

So have I, given that Brandon is the prime suspect for dishonoring Ashara at HH.

4 hours ago, 40 Thousand Skeletons said:

or even if Ashara herself was the source of the letter that made Brandon run off to KL in the first place.

That blind rage with which he challenged Rhaegar to the duel, without even checking if Rhaegar was present, doesn't seem to indicate any other motives on Brandon's part.

Plus, why would Ashara want to meet him in KL? Whatever communication they might have had, it would be prior Lyanna's disappearance, and when it happened, Brandon was travelling and thus couldn't be reached by raven or messenger. If Ashara wanted to meet him secretly, KL wouldn't be a convenient place to do so.

4 hours ago, 40 Thousand Skeletons said:

Brandon may have expected to arrive in KL and not be thrown into jail, and thus he could have visited his true love Ashara using Lyanna as a pretext.

See above - given the time needed for communication, any letter Ashara might have sent would have been dispatched before the supposed abduction.

Besides, another problem - the locations to which a letter could have been sent were either Winterfell, or Riverrun. So Ashara would be sending a letter asking for a meeting either to his home, or to the home of his betrothed. If it was per raven, the respective maester would read it, and sure as hell show it to Rickard or Hoster, and then shitstorm would ensue. That never happened, so no ravenmail. Therefore, if there was a letter, it would have been by messenger, and in that case, it should have been mentioned that Brandon left after receiving a message. Yet, no such mention.

4 hours ago, 40 Thousand Skeletons said:

It seems like an odd coincidence that Brandon ran off just before getting married to Cat.

We know that Brandon was supposed to meet the wedding party en route to Riverrun. Now, this may have been a pretext for seeing to some business of his own because I don't see why he couldn't just wait for them to arrive, but it seems that the initiative would have been his own, because of the above-mentioned lack of a message from somewhere else.

4 hours ago, 40 Thousand Skeletons said:

In reality, he may have run to KL not just to hunt down Lyanna, but to run away from his marriage and try to elope with Ashara.

That would mean almost certainly losing his position as the heir to Winterfell, the Starks would have lost face terribly and Rickard would have had to react harshly not to seem weak. So, do we have any support for Brandon being the type of guy who would sacrifice everything for the sake of true love? I'm afraid not. Plus, that duel with LF for Cat's hand - doesn't seem like the action of a guy who would give up what's "his".

 

[John Suburbs]

23 hours ago, kissdbyfire said:

I will have a look. I haven't been able to read the whole book yet...

100% agree on "close to", but I've seen many here interpret it as either more or less than a year. 

I think the siege did last close to a year...

ACoK, Prologue

“You could bring him no hope?”
“Only the false sort, and I’d not do that,” Davos said. “He had the truth from me.”
Maester Cressen remembered the day Davos had been knighted, after the siege of Storm’s End. Lord Stannis and a small garrison had held the castle for close to a year, against the great host of the Lords Tyrell and Redwyne. Even the sea was closed against them, watched day and night by Redwyne galleys flying the burgundy banners of the Arbor. Within Storm’s End, the horses had long since been eaten, the dogs and cats were gone, and the garrison was down to roots and rats. Then came a night when the moon was new and black clouds hid the stars. Cloaked in that darkness, Davos the smuggler had dared the Redwyne cordon and the rocks of ShipbreakerBay alike. His little ship had a black hull, black sails, black oars, and a hold crammed with onions and salt fish. Little enough, yet it had kept the garrison alive long enough for Eddard Stark to reach Storm’s End and break the siege.”

 

 

Yes, all the times are rather vague. So in the case of the siege, "close to" could be as little as eight months. So if we assume the siege didn't start until after Summerhall, and Ned did not get to Storm's End until a good month after the sack, we're still in the ballpark.

But that still means there was nearly nine months between the wedding at Riverrun and the sack, which means all of the other action, from the banners called in the Vale to wedding, had to take place in less than three months. Is that realistic?

 

[kissdbyfire]

6 hours ago, John Suburbs said:

Yes, all the times are rather vague. So in the case of the siege, "close to" could be as little as eight months. So if we assume the siege didn't start until after Summerhall, and Ned did not get to Storm's End until a good month after the sack, we're still in the ballpark.

But that still means there was nearly nine months between the wedding at Riverrun and the sack, which means all of the other action, from the banners called in the Vale to wedding, had to take place in less than three months. Is that realistic?

 

Probably not, especially given both Robert and Ned's mileage. But that doesn't mean it's not what actually *happened*. 

[Ygrain]

7 minutes ago, kissdbyfire said:

Probably not, especially given both Robert and Ned's mileage. But that doesn't mean it's not what actually *happened*. 

Especially when GRRM + numbers = nope nope nope :-)

[kissdbyfire]

3 minutes ago, Ygrain said:

Especially when GRRM + numbers = nope nope nope :-)

Exactly that!

 

[hiraeth]

Just a question - if A+B-J, why would it be necessary to keep Jon's parentage secret after Robert won - why would Ned complicate his life and marriage, not to mention smearing his honour - Jon would still be a bastard, but fathered by a tragic hero, his parentage would not have any bearing on Robert's hatred of the Targs, his life would not be in danger, at least from Robert - who would care about a love affair more than a decade ago? Maybe I'm missing something, but I just don't see the need for keeping his parentage so hush-hush...

[kissdbyfire]

18 minutes ago, hiraeth said:

Just a question - if A+B-J, why would it be necessary to keep Jon's parentage secret after Robert won - why would Ned complicate his life and marriage, not to mention smearing his honour - Jon would still be a bastard, but fathered by a tragic hero, his parentage would not have any bearing on Robert's hatred of the Targs, his life would not be in danger, at least from Robert - who would care about a love affair more than a decade ago? Maybe I'm missing something, but I just don't see the need for keeping his parentage so hush-hush...

That's part of the problem with this theory. It wouldn't be necessary at all. 

[40 Thousand Skeletons]

7 hours ago, hiraeth said:

Just a question - if A+B-J, why would it be necessary to keep Jon's parentage secret after Robert won - why would Ned complicate his life and marriage, not to mention smearing his honour - Jon would still be a bastard, but fathered by a tragic hero, his parentage would not have any bearing on Robert's hatred of the Targs, his life would not be in danger, at least from Robert - who would care about a love affair more than a decade ago? Maybe I'm missing something, but I just don't see the need for keeping his parentage so hush-hush...

 

6 hours ago, kissdbyfire said:

That's part of the problem with this theory. It wouldn't be necessary at all. 

To protect the stability and strength of the vital, newly formed Stark-Tully alliance, the basis of which was the fact that Cat's children would inherit Winterfell and the north. Brandon Stark's son would be a direct threat to Cat's line, an infinitely larger threat than Cat already considers Jon to be, because Brandon comes before Ned in the line of succession.

[Ygrain]

12 minutes ago, 40 Thousand Skeletons said:

 

To protect the stability and strength of the vital, newly formed Stark-Tully alliance, the basis of which was the fact that Cat's children would inherit Winterfell and the north. Brandon Stark's son would be a direct threat to Cat's line, an infinitely larger threat than Cat already considers Jon to be, because Brandon comes before Ned in the line of succession.

That is a rather exaggerated statement. Bastards don't get to jump trueborn children's place in the succession line, they can only do so by usurpation, and then it doesn't matter whose bastard they are because they operate by "might makes right". Dammit, Bloodraven was a legitimised bastard, yet he didn't jump Aerys I or Maekar. Your claim of the aggravated danger has no support in the books, or can you show a quote?

[hiraeth]

2 hours ago, 40 Thousand Skeletons said:

 

To protect the stability and strength of the vital, newly formed Stark-Tully alliance, the basis of which was the fact that Cat's children would inherit Winterfell and the north. Brandon Stark's son would be a direct threat to Cat's line, an infinitely larger threat than Cat already considers Jon to be, because Brandon comes before Ned in the line of succession.

I somehow does not add up - Ned was far to honourable to usurp his brother's and his nephew's birthright, if a bastard had any claim over Cat's children - and after the rebellion, Stark-Tully alliance would not be that paramount for the realm or even for the North, I just don't see Ned going to such lenghts, he's not LF...

[kissdbyfire]

@40 Thousand Skeletons, what @Ygrain said.

[BalerionTheCat]

On 29/05/2017 at 2:49 PM, theMADdestScientist_ said:

Why the Kingsguard fought against Ned? it's a question often asked, and many of us assume they were following orders, which i believe to be the case.

It came early in my thoughts about the ToJ that is was convenient that only the 2 most faithful friends of Lyanna survived the Tower. IMO the KG could have killed every north man. IMO they believed (knew) they had to disappear. To die according to all appearance. Otherwise, they could not keep the baby secret. When Ser Arthur Dayne says "And now it begins", I think he believes(knows) he is starting a prophecy or something Grand.

[Xray the Enforcer]

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