mormont Posted June 7, 2017 Share Posted June 7, 2017 For the chuckle factor I'm predicting that the Tories do not, in fact, significantly increase their majority and May winds up looking incredibly foolish, having gained a few and lost a few but come out only slightly better off. The Lib Dems to lose half their already very few seats and have a grim year of soul-searching. The SNP to lose a few seats and everyone to describe them having only 50 of 59 MPs as an unmitigated disaster. Labour to pile up votes in safe constituencies but not to gain very many seats overall. UKIP to register under 5% nationally while the media keep on treating them as a major electoral power. The Greens to do slightly less well than UKIP while the media treat them as if they have a total party membership of three people and an eccentric cat. The Northern Irish parties to wonder if anyone in Britain gave them a moment's thought in this whole farrago (the answer is no). Plaid Cymru to remind people briefly that they exist. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maltaran Posted June 7, 2017 Share Posted June 7, 2017 8 minutes ago, mormont said: Plaid Cymru to remind people briefly that they exist. I reckon in percentage terms they'll have the biggest increase in seats (33% rise i.e. they'll go from 3 to 4). Overall, I'll go for a Tory majority somewhere in the thirties. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jen'ari Posted June 7, 2017 Share Posted June 7, 2017 I'm not going to bother voting, not making the effort to go to the polling station after work just to spoil my ballot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Channel4s-JonSnow Posted June 7, 2017 Share Posted June 7, 2017 id say Mormont's prediction sounds about right to me. May was in a position of power and labour were closing to breaking apart a couple of months ago. Now they seem stronger than ever and May looks very foolish indeed. She'll still win though, but in a worse position than when she started. And everything will look totally pointless Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Anti-Targ Posted June 7, 2017 Share Posted June 7, 2017 10 hours ago, Ser Scot A Ellison said: And again, if the situation warrants the use of firearms, "shoot to capture/wound" is dangerous to the people who are not attacking others. Firearms should only be used when you need to kill to make people safe. That is what firearms are designed to do. That's arguable from an operational perspective. If the target is in a crowd then any shooting at all endangers bystanders. If the target is isolated then shoot to capture is not a direct danger to bystanders. However the chance of missing with shoot to capture means the target might get away and do more harm before being captured. I don't think shoot to kill should be an operational order. Authorising use of firearms for a given situation should then give field command the discretion to use whatever tactics are necessary to bring the situation under control in the shortest time with least harm to bystanders and police. In a country where police are not routinely armed, the authorisation to use firearms is in itself permission to use lethal force. The context is different in a country where all police are armed all the time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Squab Posted June 8, 2017 Share Posted June 8, 2017 I see the daily stormer endorsed Jeremy Corbyn, and not ironically. What could a bunch of fascist Nazis have in common with JC and Labour... Is this the horseshoe of politics? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Marquis de Leech Posted June 8, 2017 Share Posted June 8, 2017 5 minutes ago, Squab said: I see the daily stormer endorsed Jeremy Corbyn, and not ironically. What could a bunch of fascist Nazis have in common with JC and Labour... Is this the horseshoe of politics? Nah, it's the modern version of Enoch Powell backing Labour in 1974 over Europe: latching onto particular pet issues at the expense of others. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ljkeane Posted June 8, 2017 Share Posted June 8, 2017 I just voted. I wasn't the first one there this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Channel4s-JonSnow Posted June 8, 2017 Share Posted June 8, 2017 I voted early this morning, one of the first there. I'll admit I went Tory. I think I was always going to do it although there was a period where I considered labour. It was a tricky choice, both sides have huge failings and limited upsides. In the end I went for my initial assertion that a poor majority or a labour coalition would be very bad for Brexit. That and the absolute venom and hatred spouted by anyone who was a labour supporter, towards anyone even considering voting Tory. Do they not see how offputting that attitude is? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mormont Posted June 8, 2017 Share Posted June 8, 2017 Uh... much of the UK media is covered in headlines full of absolute venom and hatred towards Labour and anyone else not voting Tory. Is that OK, or is it just randoms on the internet who have to be polite about these things in case they upset someone? It's fine when the Daily Mail do it, but not if a Twitter user with 23 followers does it? Don't be ridiculous. You don't give a shit about that. It's an excuse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Channel4s-JonSnow Posted June 8, 2017 Share Posted June 8, 2017 Just now, mormont said: Uh... much of the UK media is covered in headlines full of absolute venom and hatred towards Labour and anyone else not voting Tory. Is that OK, or is it just randoms on the internet who have to be polite about these things in case they upset someone? It's fine when the Daily Mail do it, but not if a Twitter user with 23 followers does it? Don't be ridiculous. You don't give a shit about that. It's an excuse. Thanks for telling me what I do or do not think. You are the most psychic poster here. I don't read the daily mail or any newspaper, as I am more aware of the bollocks they spew as well. Their lies and loyalties are so obvious that they are not even worth talking about. However my Facebook feed is jam packed full of people who assume they are 'good' and ' righteous' by telling everyone who votes Tory that they are evil or that May is a witch or some other childish simplistic nonsense. Both tactics are equally bad and offputting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mormont Posted June 8, 2017 Share Posted June 8, 2017 Facebook is also full of Tory and UKIP voters who're telling Labour voters they're naive fools, traitors, liars, or worse. Welcome to the internet. Sorry, but you're clearly using this as a way of feeling better about your vote. The 'nasty liberals on the internet made me vote for a reactionary party' line has been deployed for years now, particularly in the last US election, and it's a load of self-serving rubbish. No self-respecting person should be parroting it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Horza Posted June 8, 2017 Share Posted June 8, 2017 People who have definite policy views and political alignments with one side yet some reason feel the need to add their personal affront at the attitude of some on the other side as an equal or greater weight to their decision puzzle me. Isn't that an admission that one's considered political views are to a greater or lesser degree hostage to naked personal resentment? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Channel4s-JonSnow Posted June 8, 2017 Share Posted June 8, 2017 Well I've not seen any of these Tory voters you've talked to on my social media as I'm clearly not friends with them. I'm merely pointing out the phenomenon of people who consider themselves on 'the correct side' using hateful and divisive language, extreme characterisations and borderline abusive behaviour to attack those that they do not agree with. I'm sure there are UKIP Tory voters doing it as well, I'm just not friends with them (most people I know who will probably vote Tory have gone very quiet as doing so will lead to them being a social pariah) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IheartIheartTesla Posted June 8, 2017 Share Posted June 8, 2017 My read/prediction of the elections: Tories lead Labour by 6-7 points overall and will get real close to 325 on either side. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Philokles Posted June 8, 2017 Share Posted June 8, 2017 Looks like my post from last night was swallowed in the forum update. I'd agree pretty much with Mormont's prediction for a Tory majority of 20-30ish. Locally it seems pretty certain that Kent will remain fully Conservative. The only doubt is in South Thanet, but that is due Mackinlay's expenses from 2015. Were it not for the CPS' decision to prosecute last week then that would be as safe a seat for the Tories as the rest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Which Tyler Posted June 8, 2017 Share Posted June 8, 2017 Going with a Tory majority of 30-35, enough for Teresa to cop some flak from her own side, but to ride it out. Labour to increase their share of the votes, and for the Lib Dems to stick in the single figures of seats. Corbyn to stay on as party leader, and possibly even shore up his support within the PLP. I would be expecting a Labour government from 2023 though, unless May et al perform miracles negotiating Brexit. Locally, it's a conservative safe seat; and I can't see him getting <50% whatever happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The BlackBear Posted June 8, 2017 Share Posted June 8, 2017 I don't really expect many seats to change hands in England, but I'm very interested in seeing the Scottish results. Which parties manage to win back ground, particularly seeing whether this much hyped Scottish Conservative Resurgence materialises. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IheartIheartTesla Posted June 8, 2017 Share Posted June 8, 2017 According to FiveThirtyEight (wonder why there is no SixFiifty website, or maybe there is), each of he following options could be equally likely: Narrow Conservative majority, Conservative landslide, Conservatives lose their majority. Now the third option would actually seem the least likely, but if Labour outperforms their poll average by more than 1-2 points, it could happen. Exciting stuff to be sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Philokles Posted June 8, 2017 Share Posted June 8, 2017 48 minutes ago, IheartIheartTesla said: My read/prediction of the elections: Tories lead Labour by 6-7 points overall and will get real close to 325 on either side. Did you mean that both Labour and the Tories will get close to 325? It doesn't seem possible if Labour are 6-7% behind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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